jayalexander Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Has anyone tried using this technique? It certainly sounds very logical and I can imagine it should give you an edge. Interested to hear the thoughts of others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Re: Dosage method Are you on the right forum Jay??? Give us a clue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Re: Dosage method It's one of the methods of assessing what a horse's optimum trip might be by allotting figures to the main sires through the generations.......some get a speed rating, some have a stamina rating and the value of the ratings goes down each generation back The idea is that you look through the horse's pedigree and see whether he has mainly speed or stamina influences and tot up the values I've never used it Is it readily available for anyone who wants to look at a particular horse ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kev2oo9 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Re: Dosage method On the pedigree query site if you search for horse it has its profile Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 9, 2015 Author Share Posted April 9, 2015 Re: Dosage method Are you on the right forum Jay??? Give us a clue. I'm pretty new to the whole concept but basically it's an assessment of the last four generations using the stallion achievements. If they were any good they become a 'chef de race', which is the creme de la creme status for stallions. I thought it would take forever to compile the necessary figures for a single race but it's not so; as kev has pointed out, they're available on http://www.pedigreequery.com/ It's definitely worth briefly reading up on this first or you may misinterpret things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 9, 2015 Author Share Posted April 9, 2015 Re: Dosage method I'll add that it's one of the most exciting & compelling racing concepts that I've come across in the last five years. Just need to slowly start putting it into action! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toast Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Re: Dosage method I'll add that it's one of the most exciting & compelling racing concepts that I've come across in the last five years. Just need to slowly start putting it into action! Think it was someone called Steve Roman who came up with the idea. Nick Mordin used to champion this every derby. It was hit and miss. Breeding is not an exact science, to my mind, a horse will only run as far as its dam did and ground preference comes from the sire. This is also hit and miss, Frankel for example being the most high profile of recent years. Ims, it dismissed Sea the Stars. To my reading, being by a derby winner out of an arc winner, it couldn't fail to stay 12f. The more dismissals I read of him during derby week, the more visits I made to the bookies. The rest is history. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 9, 2015 Author Share Posted April 9, 2015 Re: Dosage method Always going to be results like that but I think it's the most pure form of trend analysis. Combine that with some form reading of your own (as you did) and you're onto a winner! Unfortunately it didn't work out for me today at Aintree, but I'm encouraged :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Re: Dosage method personally its all a load of shite you could give Barney Curley one of Frankles offspring hold it up get it beat get it in a handicap at a low mark have 4 or 5 other runners on the day in the same situation then WHAM all 4 go in off he pops with a few million,punters screwed again.. Jay and all your missing the facts,regardless of the breeding etc its what the trainer /connections have mapped out for the horse and unless your in the know your wasting your time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 9, 2015 Author Share Posted April 9, 2015 Re: Dosage method personally its all a load of shite you could give Barney Curley one of Frankles offspring hold it up get it beat get it in a handicap at a low mark have 4 or 5 other runners on the day in the same situation then WHAM all 4 go in off he pops with a few million,punters screwed again.. Jay and all your missing the facts,regardless of the breeding etc its what the trainer /connections have mapped out for the horse and unless your in the know your wasting your time I'd have to disagree with you there, buddy. You would almost certainly be wasting your time using this method in handicaps because of weight issues, but in theory it would work quite well in listed and above races. I'll post a few examples for the decent races at Aintree later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 9, 2015 Author Share Posted April 9, 2015 Re: Dosage method 2:15 - I've collated the data for the last ten runnings of this race, although have dropped both the highest and the lowest figures for each data set. The data sets are Dosage Index (DI) and Center of Distribution (CD). In theory, one deals with speed, the other with stamina. I've averaged the eight scores under each heading, which leaves me with a DI of 1.01 and CD of -0.23. Reviewing the dosage profile of the field there are three runners, which, in my opinion, are the closest in profile figures to the above: Commissioned = 0.56(DI), -0.19(CD) Jollys Cracked It = 1.12(DI), 0.06(CD) Vago Collonges = 1.00(DI), 0.17(CD) Let's see if one of these can upset the favourite backers :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 10, 2015 Author Share Posted April 10, 2015 Re: Dosage method 2:50 = DI 0.78, CD -0.11 Irish Saint - DI 0.71, CD -0.17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Re: Dosage method I'd have to disagree with you there, buddy. You would almost certainly be wasting your time using this method in handicaps because of weight issues, but in theory it would work quite well in listed and above races. I'll post a few examples for the decent races at Aintree later. Bought a book on it around 2000/2001 Looked all over this morning for it unfortunately couldn't find it,the missus might know where it is when she gets home. Anyway I set up excel with all the formulas blah blah blah Downloaded all the sire and mares info etc etc etc plugged it all in and to say the results were pretty dire is an understatement to say the least. Good luck with your quest though. PS Thinking back I may have binned the book ,but if I find it you can have it with pleasure its crap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 10, 2015 Author Share Posted April 10, 2015 Re: Dosage method Winner of the 2:15, Cyrus Darius has figures of 0.64 (DI) and 0.0 (CD). Shortlisted Vago Collonges, returned ew money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 10, 2015 Author Share Posted April 10, 2015 Re: Dosage method Bought a book on it around 2000/2001 Looked all over this morning for it unfortunately couldn't find it,the missus might know where it is when she gets home. Anyway I set up excel with all the formulas blah blah blah Downloaded all the sire and mares info etc etc etc plugged it all in and to say the results were pretty dire is an understatement to say the least. Good luck with your quest though. PS Thinking back I may have binned the book ,but if I find it you can have it with pleasure its crap. Haha cheers :) As with almost everything in racing, it's not the holy grail, but if you interpret it in the right way then I'm sure it can pay dividends. Anyway, we'll see ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 10, 2015 Author Share Posted April 10, 2015 Re: Dosage method Saphir Du Rheu's dosage figures = 0.33(DI), -0.5(CD). Irish Saint returns ew money :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 10, 2015 Author Share Posted April 10, 2015 Re: Dosage method After timing here but I didnt have a bet on the race anyway, although I've just collated the average figures of the last 10 years, again discounting the highest and lowest for the both data sets. It averages out as 0.89 (DI) & 0.12 (CD). Don Cossack scores 0.87 & 0.07! Haven't checked the other runners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 10, 2015 Author Share Posted April 10, 2015 Re: Dosage method Saturday Mersey Novice Hurdle - average DI over last ten years 0.87, average CD of 0.42 Sub Lieutenant = DI 1.00, CD 0.21 Maghull Novice Chase - DI 1.00, CD 0.04 Art Mauresque = DI 1.00, CD 0.17 Liverpool Hurdle - DI 0.98, CD -0.22 Un Temps Pour Tout = DI 1.00, CD 0.10 *My average figures do not include the highest and lowest score for each data set. I just hope I have the calculations correct! Happy punting :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted April 12, 2015 Author Share Posted April 12, 2015 Re: Dosage method I've compiled dosage figures for the two Guinea's trials at Leopardstown today and thought I'd share them. If I continue with them after today I'll take it to the horse racing systems :ok 2,000 Guinea's Trial = av DI 1.3 range 0.54-1.67, av CD 0.23 range -0.6 - 0.58. 1 - 2.11, 0.43 2 - 1.22, 0.30 3 - 1.12, 0.11 4 - 1.29, 0.25 5 - 1.75, 0.41 6 - 0.76, 0 7 - 2.08, 0.5 8 - 1.24, 0.36 Shortlist: Jamaica & Mesmerism 1,00 Guinea's Trial = av DI 2.17 range 0.78 - 5.40, av CD 0.59 range 0.03 - 1.16 1 - 3.5, 0.83 2 - 2.00, 0.58 3 - 0.89, 0 4 - 1.26, 0.15 5 - 1.75, 0.5 6 - 1.82, 0.54 7 - 3.57, 1.06 8 - 0.82, -0.10 9 - 3.40, 0.82 10 - 1.17, 0.15 Shortlist: Devonshire & Red Ivy (Qualify would have been but is now a NR) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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