stho1978 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 How reliable are in play stats? I know there is software out there that can show you when a team has more shots, possession etc. but I was just wondering if anyone who bets in play uses stats or other guides (doesn't matter if you use specific software). I'm asking as I'm a great believer in that a period of unusual activity is followed by a period of less unusual activity. So, for example, Chelsea v QPR. In the first 10 mins QPR have had 10 shots, 75% possession and 8 corners but it's still 0-0 (completely made up figures). Now I wouldn't necessarily suggest backing QPR in play as I would presume that this was a slight blip on Chelsea's part and that things would return to a more normal pattern (or what you would expect to be normal in this type of game).So, therefore, the in play stats are pretty meaningless? You're basing your bet on a small sample rather than looking at the bigger picture, or would any of you in play bettors have a punt on QPR based on these stats? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Re: Inplay Statistics This site does research on in-play stats and betting and might be of interest: http://www.sotdoc.co.uk/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Re: Inplay Statistics I think a lot depends on the quality of the teams involved. For example, I was just monitoring shots on target on Torino v Lazio in Serie A in Italy tonight. The score was 0-0 after around 70 minutes. Lazio seemed to be racking up a lot of shots on target, and I was thinking of backing them at reasonable odds of around 1.65 AH. Sure enough, when I looked again, they were leading 0-2. On the other hand, last Wednesday 11th March, I was monitoring a game in the AFC Cup (a sort of Europa League for the Asian Football Confederation) between New Radiant from the Maldives and Lao Toyota of Laos. Around 50 minutes, Lao Toyota were leading 1-0, had had a lot more shots on target, and were still available on 2-way odds of 2.75 DNB. I backed them in-play. But when I started watching the game, I noticed that when Lao had a 'shot on target' it was typically a speculative punt from about 30 yards, which the goalkeeper easily dealt with. Whereas New Radiant were doing nearly all the dangerous attacking, but their finishing was so erratic they were registering few shots on target. But they were dominating play so much (running into the area, headers over the bar, dangerous crosses) that I thought they looked much more likely winners. Sure enough, they won 2-1 ... http://www.the-afc.com/afc-cup-2015/afc-cup-md2-%E2%80%93-group-h-new-radiant-sc-2-1-lao-fc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gashead9 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Re: Inplay Statistics Thanks, I am sure I will find this useful. I have been betting in play for a while now, trying to work out a profitable method, and im not too far away, not dissimilar from MPLoius above in that it involves monitoring stats & betting on dominant teams that havent yet scored. I normally do a quick check on soccerway to check form, stats, league pos & h2h records, as it involves any league I can get the stats on. You do have to be quick, sometimes you miss the goal you've been waiting for during research, though to be fair it often saves you a bet too! The research is important though and I always look for info that can back up the stats, decent form, h2h record, league pos, etc. Normally like to wait until half time, sometimes just after, and sometimes I might take a punt after 20 mins as I did with ADO Reserves this evening @ 3.5. I also noticed both Lazio & Fiorentina's stats during their halftime breaks & took both of those aswell as a double. During busy periods I might have 3/4 selections & often place small stake triples & fourfolds that pay out more often or not if your selections are good enough, but of course a bit of luck required too. And of course, you get much better odds than you do before the start of the game. Im sure there's others here that have similar methods, or systems for in play betting. Be interesting to here how others use it to their advantage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gashead9 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Re: Inplay Statistics As far as the original question, I wouldnt be taking a punt on QPR after 10 mins away to Chelsea, QPR would need to have either a good & recent away record & a good h2h away to Chelsea, which of course they dont! Im also very reluctant to take a punt on away teams, if I do it'l be an asian +0.25 as long as its above even money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Re: Inplay Statistics Thanks, I am sure I will find this useful. I have been betting in play for a while now, trying to work out a profitable method, and im not too far away, not dissimilar from MPLoius above in that it involves monitoring stats & betting on dominant teams that havent yet scored. I normally do a quick check on soccerway to check form, stats, league pos & h2h records, as it involves any league I can get the stats on. You do have to be quick, sometimes you miss the goal you've been waiting for during research, though to be fair it often saves you a bet too! The research is important though and I always look for info that can back up the stats, decent form, h2h record, league pos, etc. Normally like to wait until half time, sometimes just after, and sometimes I might take a punt after 20 mins as I did with ADO Reserves this evening @ 3.5. I also noticed both Lazio & Fiorentina's stats during their halftime breaks & took both of those aswell as a double. During busy periods I might have 3/4 selections & often place small stake triples & fourfolds that pay out more often or not if your selections are good enough, but of course a bit of luck required too. And of course, you get much better odds than you do before the start of the game. Im sure there's others here that have similar methods, or systems for in play betting. Be interesting to here how others use it to their advantage. Re your original question about Chelsea v QPR, I think I would be tempted to put something on QPR (possibly first half Asian handicap) after 10 shots in the first 10 minutes - because that's a lot of shots! It depends on the odds of course - it's important to remember that we are all playing in a market that has lots of participants all trying to profit (backers and layers). There will probably be a lot of people following a game like this, meaning the bookies price will be adjusted depending on the weight of money. So there's a good chance that QPR's price would have already started dropping as others back them seeing the number of early shots. In general, with in-play betting, I have found it's best to wait for at least 20 minutes after kick off. Unless I have done some pre-match research and identified QPR as possible value for this game. Although in-play betting can be very profitable, it can also easily become time-consuming gambling. The best way I think do it is to monitor the whole match right from the start. But this takes a lot of time and effort, and there is the temptation to try to follow too many matches at once. I wonder if there is any software that monitors games in-play, showing shots trends for a number of games. This would allow you to quickly see possible value bets where one team is racking up a lot of shots on target. Is anyone aware of any such software? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Re: Inplay Statistics As I said above, I think it is vital to monitor shots from early in the game (preferably from the start). Otherwise, you might look at a game at half time, see the score is 1-1 and the shots on target ratio is 5-1. At first glance, you'd be tempted to back the side with 5 shots on target. But what if their 5 shots were early in the game when they took the lead, and the other side has dominated since before half time? So it's important to know when the shots were, as well as the relative quality of the two teams involved :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiddo112 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Re: Inplay Statistics Hi MP, I know you are into your shots stats. I read this a while ago and thought it might be of interest: http://11tegen11.net/2015/01/05/the-best-predictor-for-future-performance-is-expected-goals/ Sent from my HTC One using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Re: Inplay Statistics I've seen this in the past, never used it myself though: > NB: I read the posting rules and I don't think I'm not allowed to post a link to this site, I'm just trying to help stho1978 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Re: Inplay Statistics Matthew, sorry, but it's a highly commercial site; I cannot find any content free of charge, and subscription ranges from 20 GBP for 14 days to 191 GBP for 6 months, so I don't think we need to advertise them here. If you want to help stho, feel free to send him PM. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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