Aidymac Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm 2015 Champion Hurdle Trends 25 of the last 31 winners won last time out 20 of the last 30 winners finished in the first 4 at last season’s Festival 12 of the last 16 winners were either Irish trained or trained by Nicky Henderson Horses beaten in the Christmas Hurdle and International Hurdle have a better record than the winner The Fighting Fifth Hurdle has featured 3 winners and 4 placed horses in the last 7 years 5 year-olds are 1-92 since 1985 Only 2 horses have won aged 10+ in the race’s history Only 1 of the last 23 Christmas Hurdle winners have gone on to win this Only 1 of the last 25 International Hurdle winners have gone on to win this Only 1 winner since 1993 did not have a prep race in the same calendar year No unplaced horse from the previous year’s renewal has won for 21 years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm Hard to look beyond the fav IMO. I don't see anything getting near him if he jumps well and stays up. I like Garde La Victoire as a possible placer should he go for this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toast Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm Arctic Fire 25/1 ew...after timing sorry. Fav looks good, but having no prep race is a worry and still a chance that Ruby will stay loyal to Hurricane Fly if he turns up. Arctic Fire has finally started to show what he's capable of in his last 2 runs. He needs decent ground and a breakneck pace which he should get. Finished 2nd in the county hurdle last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm Faugheen to me, is a horse with a very similar profile to The New One. Both are sketchy jumpers and both stay much further. I can see Faugheen trying to make all, The New One should be making up ground hand over fist up the hill. I won't be going near Jezki if McCoy is on board, if Geraghty is back on I might consider it. Last year I said the Fly had no chance, I still stand by that, but I also thought he had no chance of beating Jezki three times this season and he proved me wrong. Still, it would be the best training performance probably EVER if Fly were to win this race in my opinion. Arctic Fire has an each-way shout, but still won't be good enough to win a champion hurdle, I feel. The interesting thing about this race this year, is every single one of the market leaders have negatives. If there is ever going to be a massive upset, it could be this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smarty72 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm Don't Think Ruby will stay loyal to Hurricane Fly...... PP have a racing special on the champion hurdle relating to this and who Ruby will ride! Faugheen 1\10 Hurricane Fly 5\1 Barring any setbacks Ruby will be on Faugheen. Who is going to win? Who knows but I do think that an outsider could make the frame but which one not sure! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm The reason I will side with faugheen over the new one is simply that the new one is an excuses horse. People are always lining up to excuse its defeats whether it is poir our conor or its failure to jump the last at kempton when beaten by my tent or yours. I wonder what excuse his army of followers will offer up this year. I would back it in the world hurdle though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm The reason I will side with faugheen over the new one is simply that the new one is an excuses horse. People are always lining up to excuse its defeats whether it is poir our conor or its failure to jump the last at kempton when beaten by my tent or yours. I wonder what excuse his army of followers will offer up this year. I would back it in the world hurdle though For all I feel he can win a champion hurdle, why are they not playing to the horses' strengths ? I'm not Nigel and I am sure he knows more than us about the horse, but it is as clear as day The New One stays all day long and has bags of speed to go along with it. He would easily win a World Hurdle for me, whereas if he jumps like he did last time out in 5 weeks time, he doesn't have a chance in the Champion hurdle.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm I respectfully disagree about him in a champion, you are better at the nags than me though!!!. I always felt he was a stayer, you can get away with the errors in the world hurdle that you simply cant in a champion. World Hurdle does look very winnable.....maybe next year!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toast Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm My problem with NTO is his jumping, drags his legs too much for my liking. I feel he's a shoe in for the Aintree Hurdle over 20f. Only 3 hurdles in the last 6 furlongs is a massive help for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smarty72 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm Ok 23 declared for the champion hurdle but think we can rule out a few that are highly unlikely to run..... Eliminate The 2 mares Annie Power and Little King Robin. The 2 Mullins novice chasers Un De Sceaux and Vautour. Garde La Victoire has been stated by trainer as been aimed at Coral or County Hurdle. Odds on Betfair indicate that the following unlikely to run, Plinth, Sea Lord, Blue Heron and Bertimont. That takes out 9 runners of the 23 leaving 14. Lets now look at the 5yo's left.... Tiger Roll - 2 from 2 at Cheltenham including the Triumph Hurdle last year but well beaten by Hurricane Fly in last 2 races. Kitten Rock - Won last 3 races but no significant form at the top level. Calipto - Looks closely matched to Tiger Roll but lets see how he gets on in the Betfair Hurdle this weekend and see what the trainer says. All 3 would need to improve to figure based on current OR and for me not to consider. So that leaves 11 to consider in betting order.... Faugheen - Big obvious chance! The New One - Grade 1 form and unlucky last year. Jezki - Poor form this year but the reigning champion. Hurricane Fly - Exceptional form this year but now 11 years old. Arctic Fire - Getting better with each run and good placed form in Grade 1 hurdles Irving - Grade 1 winner of Fighting Fifth but poor jumping this season. Vaniteux - Looks to Hendersons 1st choice. Yet to win at Cheltenham but good experience of course with 4 hurdles runs. Purple Bay - May be better suited to 2m 4f but progressive. Sign Of A Victory - See how he gets on in Betfair Hurdle this weekend. Hammered by Faugheen and never run at Cheltenham. Diakali - More likely to go to Aintree and better suited to further. Zamdy Man - Been poor in 2 runs at Cheltenham And still not sure so will come back to this at a later date. But shortlist at the moment .... Faugheen The New One Jezki Hurricane Fly Arctic Fire Vaniteux Purple Bay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smarty72 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm Latest Press Release with updated runners and non runners.... http://cheltenham.thejockeyclub.co.u...t-the-festival Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smarty72 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm But shortlist at the moment .... Faugheen The New One Jezki Hurricane Fly Arctic Fly Vaniteux Purple Bay Vaniteux looks likely to be missing despite been declared and available at a big price on the Betfair (small amounts). Sign of a Victory missed the Betfair hurdle at the weekend but is in this weekend at Wincanton. Needs a very good run and win to be considered. Arctic Fly for me the one that looks to be still improving and the only one that could progress to trouble the top 4 in the betting. Going to have EW bet on Arctic Fly EW @ 16\1 Bet365 BOG NRNB Also will probably have another bet on the day, likely to be one of the top 4 in the betting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm Arctic Fire mate. Deffo has a place shout, should enjoy the hill too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smarty72 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm Lol! Fire Not Fly! Must repeat 100 times! Cheers Aidy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCAKER Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm JEZKI is a magnificent ew bet. We know he loves Cheltenham, and we know he loves the likely prevailing conditions he'll face. Watch a re-run of last year's race and you'll see a horse that really shouldn't be 6/1 for this years renewal. He has been running Hurricane Fly close time after time this season on ground that definitely suits HF more. It will be a different game on that Tuesday. How TNO can be half his price is ridiculous. Another horse who has enjoyed dodgy opposition all season and had conditions in his favour. His last run was a real worry as he really struggled to pick up Bertimont and the tendency to jump right will not help him at Cheltenham. Unfortunate last year but Our Conor's tragic demise didn't happen 2 out, and TNO had plenty of time to regather his checked momentum. He was beaten fair and square and I expect Jezki to confirm the form. Faugheen is obviously the talking horse of the opening day, but I'm not sure he's been beating anything of the quality that he'll be facing in this field. Other negatives, he'll be going much faster than at anytime of his career so far. He'll be having to jump hurdles at a speed he probably hasn't had to before. There are enough questions for me to want to back Jezki ew and be getting 6/4 he places (free rolling the win), rather than Faugheen at evens win only. He could possibly go off 5/4 on the day if races have gone bookies way, or for that matter odds-on if Douvan and Un De Sceaux have both won. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm JEZKI is a magnificent ew bet. We know he loves Cheltenham, and we know he loves the likely prevailing conditions he'll face. Watch a re-run of last year's race and you'll see a horse that really shouldn't be 6/1 for this years renewal. He has been running Hurricane Fly close time after time this season on ground that definitely suits HF more. It will be a different game on that Tuesday. How TNO can be half his price is ridiculous. Another horse who has enjoyed dodgy opposition all season and had conditions in his favour. His last run was a real worry as he really struggled to pick up Bertimont and the tendency to jump right will not help him at Cheltenham. Unfortunate last year but Our Conor's tragic demise didn't happen 2 out, and TNO had plenty of time to regather his checked momentum. He was beaten fair and square and I expect Jezki to confirm the form. Faugheen is obviously the talking horse of the opening day, but I'm not sure he's been beating anything of the quality that he'll be facing in this field. Other negatives, he'll be going much faster than at anytime of his career so far. He'll be having to jump hurdles at a speed he probably hasn't had to before. There are enough questions for me to want to back Jezki ew and be getting 6/4 he places (free rolling the win), rather than Faugheen at evens win only. He could possibly go off 5/4 on the day if races have gone bookies way, or for that matter odds-on if Douvan and Un De Sceaux have both won. Jezki was beat 7&1/2 lengths by an 11 year old Fly lto, and was 4 lengths behind Arctic Fire, certainly far from close. He should be beating Arctic Fire in his sleep. I had Jezki backed at 10/1 last year when he won. Don't fancy him this year, especially if McCoy rides him. In my opinion, saying TNO had plenty of time to recover is ridiculous. It's the fastest 2 mile hurdle race in the world, and if you lose 4-5 lengths you are doomed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCAKER Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm I personally wouldn't be using a race at Leopardstown in January run on heavy going to determine what chance Jezki has in March at a different course and probably on completely different going. Even if we assume that Jezki's chance in March is directly related to what happened in Jan (it isn't), then we can still go some way to explaining his relatively poor performance, and it isn't all down to McCoy. Firstly his pacemaker didn't do his job properly and Jezki was left in front for too long. You can guarantee that he will not be taking it up in CH 3 out but his challenge will be left until at least one flight later. His mistake in Irish CH at the last cost him all chance, (possibly jockey error) and from that moment McCoy wasn't hard on him, probably with his upcoming engagement in mind. In the main he has been a pretty solid jumper, and whilst I couldn't disagree that Geraghty might be a better option, it is marginal. McCoy's strength in the saddle could conceivably make the difference in a battle up the hill. Jezki's record in his career racing in March and April reads (most recent 1st) : 1-1-1-3-8-1 Ground with Good in description: 1-1-1-8-1 Grade 1 victories in March/April/May: 3 All a game of opinions, but what's your idea of the front 3? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm I personally wouldn't be using a race at Leopardstown in January run on heavy going to determine what chance Jezki has in March at a different course and probably on completely different going. Even if we assume that Jezki's chance in March is directly related to what happened in Jan (it isn't), then we can still go some way to explaining his relatively poor performance, and it isn't all down to McCoy. Firstly his pacemaker didn't do his job properly and Jezki was left in front for too long. You can guarantee that he will not be taking it up in CH 3 out but his challenge will be left until at least one flight later. His mistake in Irish CH at the last cost him all chance, (possibly jockey error) and from that moment McCoy wasn't hard on him, probably with his upcoming engagement in mind. In the main he has been a pretty solid jumper, and whilst I couldn't disagree that Geraghty might be a better option, it is marginal. McCoy's strength in the saddle could conceivably make the difference in a battle up the hill. Jezki's record in his career racing in March and April reads (most recent 1st) : 1-1-1-3-8-1 Ground with Good in description: 1-1-1-8-1 Grade 1 victories in March/April/May: 3 All a game of opinions, but what's your idea of the front 3? I will wait until 2 days before the race to figure out what way I will bet mate, but I like a price. I certainly will not discount Jezki, as I said already I tipped him up here at 10's last year. He is a spring horse, and he will be seen to best effect at Cheltenham. I don't like McCoy on top quality horses, he is not a horseman like Geraghty or Walsh, he is just brute force and presents horses poorly to hurdles and fences, but that's just my opinion. I personally don't see 6/1 being value on Jezki, but I might consider him if Geraghty gets back on board. The only way I back Jezki is if there are no other viable options in the race price wise. One thing is for sure, I don't think I'll be backing Faugheen anyways. I might be looking for a big price horse to hit the frame. I genuinely think Faugheen, The New One, Jezki, Fly, all the market leaders, have question marks against them which could set it up for a shock winner.. I have to say Kitten Rock has impressed me this season, but I'll wait until closer to the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCAKER Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm I agree about Kitten Rock, she is a live outsider and they've been very cautious with her and she might still have plenty of improvement to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm .................Ruby Walsh has partnered the ‘Fly’ to all of his victories since 2011 but now faces a tough decision to stay loyal to his old buddy or jump off and ride the much-fancied Faugheen instead. Faugheen is the new kid on the block and is currently the 5/4 favourite with bookmakers Paddy Power. He won the Neptune here last year and followed up at the Punchestown Festival. He has won twice this season at Ascot and Kempton without blinking an eye and looks the real deal and will very difficult to give up. No decision will be made until the Sunday before the race but I’ll be amazed if Walsh is not on the favourite on March 10th. Full Preview; http://www.horse-racing.org/cheltenham-preview-champion-hurdle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm I'd expect Ruby to opt for Faugheen. Think that is a simple decision and the way he has spoken about it in recent interviews clearly suggest it. And it makes sense. Faugheen is the emerging star, the hot favourite. There are no sentiments if it comes to a big championship race. I wouldn't see that as a negative. Not that I believe the Fly would be quick enough to win a Champion Hurdle these days if the ground is anything better than soft, but Paul Townend on board, would be more more than offset the loss of Ruby imo, as he knows the horse probably better than anyone else, given he is riding him day in day out and won a couple of big races on him. I can't have any of the well fancied contenders here. Faugheen too short, The New One... I don't know. There was too much made of his interference last year. I think he's not quick enough to win a Champion Hurdle. Jezki a spring horse... yes but you would still have expected him to win at Leopardstown lto. I may be wrong with all of this, but still I think there is a chance for an upset in this. I like the way Kitten Rock has progressed. Hasn't shown anything on this highest level yet, but he may well progress to become a Grade 1 hurdler. Best form over jumps in bottomless ground may be a concern, though he did pretty well on the flat on good ground. So there is a chance that he does well. 33/1 with Bet365 or 39/1 with Betfair... it's an easy decision to make for me to get on this horse. Edit: Preview from At The Races: http://youtu.be/U0IpvqNc60k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm I think Faugheen wins but backing short odds at Cheltenham isn't up my street so I will be looking for some each way value in the form of Purple Bay who looks like he is improving and has run two good races in the Elite and Christmas hurdles this year. Obviously very difficult to see him turning the tables with Faugheen but a place at a big price isn't out of the question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm Does anyone know if there's anywhere I could get hold of sectional times for last years Champion Hurdle? I had a look around but couldn't find anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smarty72 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm This link should be what you want..... http://www.turftrax.co.uk/tracking.asp?t=cheltenhamfestival2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm This link should be what you want..... http://www.turftrax.co.uk/tracking.asp?t=cheltenhamfestival2014 Cheers that's brilliant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm I can only really echo what has already been said. Faugheen could be a machine, whilst the immediate form of his Neptune run isn't amazing, the ones a little bit further down the field have done well. He beat horses you would consider useful yardsticks in Blue Heron and Purple Bay so while plenty of doubts remain I wouldn't want to be laying him. The New One is probably short enough for me now. Him and The Fly are probably going to run similar races in that they will travel well, get outpaced, and on good ground I can see TNO staying on late with HF one paced but on softer I can see them both making late gains. Unless something happens up front, which is unlikely as this isn't sure to be a break neck gallop, then I don't see them being good enough to win. Jezki is the interesting one again. I talked him up and his excuses all last season and then left him alone come the day of the race but he has the same excuses again this season and I can still see him winning, albeit I would be much more confident with Gerraghty on board. McCoy should have won on Jezki LTO against HF but he didn't kick on when he needed to and they ballsed up the last. At the prices I don't think I can side with anyone else at this stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toast Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm 8 declared at the 6 day stage, Hurricane Fly Arctic Fire Jezki Faugheen The New One Vaniteux Bertimont Kitten Rock.. No rain is forecast ( what I can see) which is not a plus for Hurricane Fly or Kitten Rock, who looks to be a pacemaker for Jezki.. My biggest fear though, would be a lack of pace, which won't suit the front 3 in the betting or Arctic Fire, but would Hurricane Fly, as would the small field. This could be a false meddling race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bennyblue Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm fauheen cant see it getting beat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm fauheen cant see it getting beat A bit of reasoning would be nice mate. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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