Novice Chasers - 2014/2015

[Smarty72]

Going to be concentrating on Novice chasers for the winter months. This thread will include a few bets, thoughts and previews/reviews of various races involving novice chasers. Will not be all races and probably going to concentrate on the top class hurdlers starting out over fences and those that have already shown a decent level of form over fences but are still classed as novice chasers. The following have been all been put into the tracker as Novice Chasers of interest and more will be added as the season progresses..... 2m Novice Chasers Ted Veale - A J Martin trained in Ireland and a county hurdle winner at the festival in 2013 and a faller in the Arkle in 2014. Had 9 races over fences and only won on latest 2 attempts with the last a Grade 3 novice chase win. Best RPR of 153 and OR 140. Probably not good enough for the top races but has the ability to win a decent 2m handicap chase. One of the 2m handicap chases likely to be the festival target. 2m 4f Novice Chasers Alelchi Inois - Willie Mullins trained and 5 from 5 over fences with 2 Grade 3 wins. Good ground horse with wins from 2m 1f to 2m 6f. Sets the early season standard but unlikely to be seen through the winter months and will probably return in late spring. May get another run before been put away for the winter. Best RPR 150 on latest win. Colour Squadron - Philip Hobbs trained who has yet to win a chase in 8 races but is probably the best novice chaser around without a win to his name. Highly tried and always runs well at Cheltenham with 4 completed rounds with the best 2 performances when 2nd in The Paddy Power Gold Cup and 2nd at the festival in The Byrne Group Plate. OR 152 and best RPR of 153. Will win this year over fences but when and where remains to be seen. Like Indevan - Willie Mullins trained with 3 wins from 4 runs over fences at 2m 4f and a Grade 3 win last time out. Another good ground horse who may get one more run before been put away for the winter months. Best RPR 147. Splash Of Ginge - Twiston-Davies trained who won on 2nd run over fences at Cheltenham last week over 2m 4f. Quoted for both the Arkle (2m) at 33\1 and JLT (2m 4f) at 20\1 with the latter looking the better option as does not look to be quick enough for 2m. Best RPR of 146. 3m Novice Chasers Southfield Theatre - Paul Nicholl's trained with 1 win from one run over fences when winning at Chepstow in a class 2 Novice chase. That win came at 2m 3.5f but trainer expects this horse to get 3m. RPR of 145 and OR 150 for that run and likely to improve. Decent placed hurdle form at Cheltenham around 3m and the RSA could be the target for the festival (Best Price 20\1 Various). The Romford Pele - Rebecca Curtis trained with 9 runs over fences winning his last 3 races with the latest at Cheltenham last week. Also comfortably won the Listed Summer Cup (Handicap) at Uttoxeter. OR 150 and best RPR of 154. Quoted for RSA at 33\1. Expect to put in some good performances over 3m plus. Everyone is free to comment, add insight and even post bets if you wish.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 15.10 Exeter - Class 4 Beginners Chase Good beginners race at Exeter with 3 decent hurdlers making there chase debuts in a 2m 1.5f race ....... Far West - 5yo from the Paul Nicholls yard who is rated at OR 147 over hurdles and was 2nd in the Triumph Hurdle in 2013 behind Our Conner. Did not really improve much last year. 10 races over hurdles with 4 wins. Grade 2 winner as a Juvenile. Unlikely to race much beyond this distance this year. Current favourite. Puffin Billy - 6yo from the Oliver Sherwood yard who is rated at OR 143 over hurdles with a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle win in December 2012. Been of the track for over a year after getting colic. Likely to need the run and given a gentle introduction today on his return. Again likely to be kept to distances around the minimum trip. One for the future as chasing was always the intention with Puffin Billy. Dunraven Storm - 9yo from the Philip Hobbs yard who is rated at OR 143 over hurdles and has won 2 of his last 4 races. Overall hurdles record of 4 wins from 12 starts. Has won twice here at Exeter in a bumper and novice hurdle. May get up to 2m 4f (having won over hurdles over 2m 3.5f) and despite only attempting the chase game for the first time at 9 could run a big race. The rest look seriously out of there depth against these 3 and it would be a big shock if one of the 3 market leaders does not win. Preference for today is for Dunraven Storm who will have the staminia to stay up that long uphill finish which is 1/2 mile. I think that Puffin Billy will not be given a tough race on his comeback from injury and connections will be looking to the future rather than today. Far West is clearly the best hurdler but an indifferent season over hurdles and a slow start to the season for trainer Paul Nicholl's makes me think that he will need the race today and again the future rather than today is more important for connections. However, I do expect Puffin Billy and Far West to be better novice chasers in the future than Dunraven Storm. 1 Pt Win - Dunraven Storm - 5\2 PP

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Good start Smarty and I really like the reasoning behind your bet as you got it spot on.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015

Good start Smarty and I really like the reasoning behind your bet as you got it spot on.

Thanks Blazing Bailey nice to see it work out. Wednesday 22nd October - 14.25 Fontwell - Class 4 Beginners race - 2m 4f Small 4 runner field tomorrow at Fontwell in what looks like a match race between 2 decent hurdlers. Deputy Dan - 6yo Trained by Oliver Sherwood. 2 wins and 3 seconds from 5 hurdle races with a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle win at Warwick in January and a very good 2nd in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham festival. OR of 145 over hurdles. Will probably be stepped up in distance after tomorrow (barring disaster) and should be effective at 3 miles plus. Looks to be effective on all types of ground Virak - 5yo trained by Paul Nicholls. Had one go at Chasing last November when 3rd of 4 at Warwick when a mistake 3 out ended any chance. Returned to hurdling after this and followed up with 2 wins at Taunton. Looks as if he will be more effective at around the 2m to 2m 4f mark. OR of 147 for hurdles and 139 for chases. The other 2 look to be totally outclassed based on previous hurdles form. Race tactics are going to decide this race as the 2 horses under focus have slightly different profiles. At 2m Virak would probably win in a match race looking to have a better finishing speed (won bumper at Newton Abbott when quickening smartly) while at 3m Deputy Dan would have the edge with stamina (Good result to finish 2nd in 3m Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham festival). But this race is at 2m 4f and I just favour Deputy Dan to land the race. Think Deputy Dan and jockey Leighton Aspell will try to lead from start to finish and make it a stamina test rather than allow a slowly run race which would suit Virak to finish strongly. 1pt Win - Deputy Dan - 8\13 PP

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 The 2 highlighted horses both jumped well with Deputy Dan making just one mistake but Virak was the the winner with jockey STD controlling the race making all the running and then quickening the pace 5 out, forcing a mistake from Deputy Dan who then tried to challenge close to home but was never able to get to the winner. Both look decent chase prospects for the future. In hindsight (easy after the event!) while I said race tactics would decide the race, got it wrong about Deputy Dan trying to lead from start to finish (No previous history of leading races - Has tracked leaders, been prominent, in touch or held up in past). Probably should have been a no bet race as I was finding it hard to split the 2 but was swayed by Paul Nicholls slow start to the season (many horses not fully race fit - Which he confirmed in an article in RP). Deputy Dan will be better over further (3m plus) while Virak while probably race at up to 3m. Will probably have a look at the 2m Beginners race at Carlisle which looks like a 2 horse race between Duke Of Navan and Urban Hymn both decent hurdlers but with quite contrasting hurdles profiles.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Thursday 23rd October - 17.00 Carlisle - Class 4 Beginners Chase - 2m 5 runners on soft ground. Duke Of Navan - 6yo trained by Nicky Richards making chase debut today. All 9 starts under rules have been from 2m to 2m 2f with 3 hurdle wins all in his novice hurdle season. Failed to improve on that in his second season hurdling and now goes chasing. Trainer has a decent record at his local course. Reached a Peak of OR 148 after winning the More Battle (Class 2 Hurdle) but finished currently rated OR 140 over hurdles. Could be very keen early on and needs to settle quickly to conserve energy for the big uphill finish. All recent runners from the yard have been well beaten. Urban Hymn - 6yo trained by Malcolm Jefferson also making chase debut. OR over hurdles of 141 and good novice season last year with 2 wins including a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Doncaster. Looks very much a stayer with that Grade 2 win at 3m 1/2f. 2 miles could be a little bit sharp for him but could lead and make the running but may be vuluable to a quicker finisher. Was recruited from the Point to Point scene and raced 3 times falling on first 2 starts before winning at Larkhill in April 2013. That Point to Point experience could be vital over these easy fences at Carlisle. Ubaltique - 6yo trained by Donald McCain having 3rd run over fences. 17 career races with 15 over hurdles with 4 wins with the best a class 3 handicap hurdle at Catterick and current OR of 135 over hurdles. 2 previous chase runs in May 2013 when but both very average performances and while 2nd on last start over fences made quite a few mistakes. Likely to be held up and if able to keep in contention could challenge for minor honours. Hit The Top - 7yo trained by Sue Smith having 2nd run over fences. One hurdle win from 9 starts a class 4 Handicap Hurdle at Catterick. Majority of races around 2m 4f and should have no problems with a 2m trip here at Carlisle with the tough uphill finish. Was a close 2nd to Ubaltique at Catterick conceding weight. One previous chase run when jumped well before been hampered and falling 4 out here at Carlisle in May this year. Likely to race up with leaders. Another with Point to Point experience. Another trainer who does well at the Course. Morning Royalty - 7yo trained by James Moffatt making debut over fences. 2 Novice hurdle wins both here at Carlisle over 2m 1f. Best OR over hurdles of 135 and currently OR 129. Highly tried over hurdles running in some decent races but not graded class. Trip and ground of no concern but was disappointing last season. Trip to short for me for Urban Hymn who will be better over further and Duke Of Navan could struggle up the uphill finish. Actually think that these 2 are worth opposing and Hit The Top looks likely to be the one who may cause an upset having some previous experience of jumping fences. 1pt Each Way - Hit The Top - 10\1 Bet365 BOG (12/1 Available but Stan James withdrew my BOG and no account with Boylesports)

[Aidymac]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Lovely thread Smarty.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Vujiyama trained by Jonjo O'Neil won the Novices Handicap Chase at Southwell today of chase OR of 102 and looks very nicely handicapped winning comfortably by 5 lengths. Unlikely to be a top novice chaser but could run up a sequence in staying novice handicap chases depending on handicappers response.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 The top 2 Duke Of Navan and Urban Hymn fighting out the finish with Duke Of Navan the victor at a decent SP of 3\1 by a head. Both look decent chase prospects. Hit The Top was 4th and a long way behind.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 One novice chase tomorrow at Fakenham a Class 3 Novice Chase over 2m 5.5f won last year by Wonderful Charm. The 3 to concentrate on are Drum Valley (Carrys a 5lb penalty for previous chase win), Broadway Buffalo and chase debutant Knock House. May have an in depth look in the morning.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015

One novice chase tomorrow at Fakenham a Class 3 Novice Chase over 2m 5.5f won last year by Wonderful Charm. The 3 to concentrate on are Drum Valley (Carrys a 5lb penalty for previous chase win), Broadway Buffalo and chase debutant Knock House. May have an in depth look in the morning.

Looks to close to call with both Drum Valley and Broadway Buffalo both having jumping issues in previous runs. 3 horses making chase Debut Knock House, Portway Flyer and Top Totti (Mare so gets 7lb allowance) all similarly rated over hurdles (OR 130 to 132). The Jugolpolist looks well outclassed on previous chase and hurdles form. No bet but will watch race to see how the newcomers get on.

[BillyHills]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Good luck with this Smarty, not easy these novice chasers:ok

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015

Good luck with this Smarty' date=' not easy these novice chasers:ok[/quote'] Thanks Billy, you are right going to be hard work but love watching the novice chasers, hopefully can spot a few good ones, win a few bets and identify a few future stars! Knock House was a really good winner today, jumping well throughout and quickened nicely to run out a comfortable winner. Sure to win more this season. Saturday 25th October 16.50 Aintree - 2m 4f Mildmay - Class 3 Novice chase Sergeant Mattie - 6yo trained by Charlie Londson. Won on only chase start at Uttoxeter over 2m 4f with just a couple of mistakes on a course with quite difficult fences. Carrys 5lb penalty for that win. Was a decent novice hurdler last year winning 2 and 2nd from 3 starts with OR 138. Wakanda - 5yo trained by Sue Smith. Also won on chase debut at hexham over 2m 4.5f. Carrys 5lb penalty for that win, Not the best jumping but got round to win comfortably in the end. Along way behind Sergeant Mattie on hurdling abilty (OR 122). May be better over further. Golden Hoof - 6yo trained by Nicky Henderson. 2 previous chase runs when 2nd and 3rd. Barry Geraghty gets on board today and for me is the best jockey to be riding a novice chaser. Horizontal Speed - 6yo trained by Philip Hobbs. Chase debut and was a decent novice hurdler last year winning 4 from 8 starts and 3 2nds. OR 140 over hurdles. Likely to put in a good chase debut. Timesremembered - 6y0 trained by Emma Lavelle. Chase debut and a good novice hurdler last year. OR 143 and the best of the field over hurdles with a grade 2 novice hurdle win and other good performances at a very decent level over hurdles. Point to Point winner and that experience will be invaluable in this race. Of those who have had Chase experience the 2 to concentrate on are Golden Hoof and Sergeant Mattie. Do not think there will be much between these 2 but the penalty for Sergeant Mattie makes me favour Golden Hoof but only just! Of those making chase debut, Timesremembered and Horizontal Speed look the best on hurdles form. Timesremembered looks the best on hurdles form and the previous point to point experience and wins while give him the edge. Bets are....... 2pt Win - Timesremembered @ 15\8 PP BOG 1pt EW - Golden Hoof @ 6\1 PP BOG

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 One for tomorrow at Galway..... Sunday 26th October Brief write up but one that looks decent is Un Beau Roman for the Willie Mullins yard with Ruby Walsh riding. 2nd last time out just over a length behind a very decent novice chaser Ted Veale (one from my list to follow this year). That form is above anything else in this race and odds look reasonable with Paddy Power. 1pt Win - Un Beau Roman @ 13\8 Paddy Power

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Winner on Saturday with Golden Hoof at SP 4\1 (Advised 6\1 PP) returning 9.2 Pts on the bet. Barry Geraghty proving his worth in the saddle. Always worth keeping an eye on any novice chaser ridden by this jockey. Sadly Timesremembered fell when hampered at the 3rd and was fatally injured. Un Beau Roman fell in his race at Galway (SP 7\4) 2 out. Twice in 4 chases he has fallen and while he looks to have ability based on previous run behind Ted Veale probably one to avoid in the future. Bets - 6 Wins - 2 Strike Rate - 33.33% Staked - 9 Pts Profit - 4.2 Pts ROI - 46.67%

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Monday 27th October 14.05 Galway - 2m 6f Beginners Chase One very interesting runner the Cheltenham festival winner Very Wood who won the 3m Albert Bartlett. Top staying novice hurdler and if he can translate that class to fences will have a big future in the novice chasing game. Well ahead of these on hurdling ratings which is reflected in the short price. To short in the betting to justify a bet in this race on chase debut. It will be all about the future with Very Wood with owners Gigginstown hoping that they will have a RSA (3m 1/2f Grade 1 Novice Chase) contender after today. Quoted in 3 Cheltenham markets at present..... World Hurdle - Will be the target if he does not prove to be a successful novice chaser. Currently Best Priced 33\1 Sky Bet. JLT Novice Chase - 2m 4f novice chase but today's chase debut is at 2f longer and connections look to be maybe looking for a performance that indicates the longer race would be more favourable option. Best Price 16\1 (Various). RSA Novice Chase - Looks the natural target for a Albert Bartlett Festival winner. Best Price 20\1 (Various). Not a big enough price to justify the risk at this stage of an anti-post bet when he has yet to jump a fence in public.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Very Wood does the business with a solid jumping display. Not spectacular but a comfortable win. Talk of next race the 2m 4f Grade 1 Drinmore Chase at Fairyhouse at the end of November. Does not look as he has the finishing speed for the 2m 4f JLT at Cheltenham and think the RSA over 3m would be a better target. Bookies have not change any prices for Cheltenham with the above prices still available. Will stay chasing and we can rule out the World Hurdle at this stage.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 One for the tracker from Wednesday at Punchestown that looks keeping on the right side of... Shanahan's Turn - Winner of 2m 4f beginners chase on good ground and getting a RPR of 146. Jumped well and comfortable winner. Should be effective from 2m 4f to maybe 3m. Ones to watch today are Apache Stronghold at Down Royal a good novice hurdler last year and Sgt Reckless, Doyly Carte and Horatio Hornblower at Uttoxeter in the beginners chase. Watching brief for these 2 races.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Apache Stronghold wins for trainer Noel Meade at 3/10 Fav. I would favour the 2m 4f route with this horse who has a decent finishing speed and the JLT at Cheltenham festival looks the obvious target. Best priced (and a Standout Price) of 20\1 with PP for the JLT with next best 14/1. Also shorter on Betfair. Trainer also has Very Wood and will probably try to keep both of them apart with Very Wood probably been aimed at The RSA if Cheltenham is the target. First Anti-Post Bet on the Novice Chaser's for Apache Stronghold with Paddy Power simply because the price looks to big! Was going to avoid Anti-post bets but can not resist! There are the usual risks with this bet but should hopefully maintain interest until festival time. 1pt EW - Apache Stronghold - PP 20\1 (EW 1/4 - 1,2,3) - JLT Novice's Chase Cheltenham 2015 Sgt Reckless obliged at Uttoxeter at SP of 8\11 and looks another decent recruit to the novice chasing ranks. Probably most effective at minimum trip but just looks short of class to win grade 1 races. Should oblige in lower class races at minimum trip. Will look at Saturdays races in the morning. Nothing stands out at this stage but will look closer then.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Sunday 2nd October 14.45 Cork - Grade 3 Novice Chase - 2m 4f Sadler's Risk is the selection gaining the best RPR of all these runners with a RPR of 150 on debut chase at Roscommon in May. That was an impressive debut and sets the standard and is the one to beat. Jockey Andrew Lynch has the ride again been in the saddle for previous chase win. Not a stereotypical chaser been a flat runner (15 Runs) but was a decent hurdler (OR 143, Best RPR 150). Not sure this horse has a long term future over fences but could be a decent novice chaser this season. 3pts Win @ 7\4 PP BOG

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 13.15 Huntingdon -Class 3 Novice Chase - 2m 4.5f Chris Pea Green is the selection and was 2nd on chase debut at Cheltenham behind Court Minstrel and while never able to challenge the winner generally jumped well with just one poor jump at the last. Would be expected to beat these at hurdling and should confirm superiority over fences. OR 142 after that one chase run. Un Ace is also rated the same, OR 142, despite falling in that same race at Cheltenham at the 3rd fence. Amazed that the handicapper was able to allocated a Chase OR after one race when he fell at 3rd! Has to prove he can jump fences! 2pts Win - Chris Pea Green @ 11\8 PP BOG

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Monday 3rd November 2014 14.05 Kempton - Novices Limited Handicap Chase - Class 3 - 3m Buck Magic - Having 2nd run over fences after recently finishing a close 2nd (3/4 length) at Bangor behind Gevrey Chambertin. OR 129 for this race after one run over fences which looks very generous against his hurdles mark of 134 and Gevrey Chambertin who has been given an OR 139 after that run. Trainer Neil Mulholland has booked champion jockey AP McCoy. The only runner with a recent run and this will help today against rivals who have not run for at least 3 months. 1pt Win @ 9/4 PP BOG - Buck Magic

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 2nd, 2nd and 2nd! Sadler's Risk finished 3 lengths behind what looks like a decent performance from the winner Perfect Gentleman, a 9yo lightly raced gelding trained by Willie Mullins with Ruby Walsh in the saddle. Ruby lost his whip but was still able to win comfortably. Chris Pea Green finished 3.5 lengths behind Un Ace! Both made some mistakes and but likely to improve and while probably will not be top class both have a future chasing. Buck Magic finished 2nd (only 2 completed) but jumped badly at times as did all the runners and looked a very poor race. Probably one to avoid in future as jumping does not look up to standard to develop into a decent chaser. Does look a real stayer and could score in some longer races in lower class races.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Tuesday 4th November 14.45 Exeter - Class 2 - Novice Chase - 3m 5 runners all with claims for this race but the winner will need to have plenty of stamina for the long half mile uphill finish on this right handed track. Caroles Destrier - 6yo trained by Neil Mulholland having 2nd chase run after finishing 2nd behind Doing Fine at Ffos Las 23 days ago. That run was over 3m but is a flat track with a slightly downhill finish. Exeter is much harder and feel that Caroles Destrier may struggle in the finish today. However sets the standard recording a RPR of 142 for that run and has race fitness. Decent novice hurdler (best RPR of 133 and OR 135) but was poor at 2 attempts over hurdles at around today's race distance including one previous run at this course. Trainer Neil Mulhollands chasers have been running poor recently. Carraig Mor - 6yo trained by Alan King. Making chase debut but won debut Point To Point In Ireland over 3m reportedly jumping well, stayed on and looked impressive. Then went novice hurdling last year with just 4 runs winning debut hurdle at Uttoxeter before finishing 2nd, 3rd then 6th at the Punchestown festival in April. Best RPR over hurdles of 145 and OR 135. Bred to be a Chaser and the point to point win will be valuable experience for these fences. Made the occasional mistake when hurdling but trainer very excited about this chaser. Tough chase debut over 3m (first attempt) and not sure he will get the trip today would have preferred to see make debut over 2m 4f. If In Doubt - 6yo trained by Philip Hobbs. Been hurdling for 2 seasons with 2 wins at Towchester, another tough right handed course like Exeter. Best 2 hurdling runs were his last 2 when 2nd to smart staying Hurdler Fingal Bay here in February just 1/2 length behind then in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham in March when 9th again to Fingal Bay. Best hurdling RPR of 143 and OR 139. Champion Jockey A P McCoy in the saddle today. That previous run here at Exeter gives him a good chance today providing he has been well schooled for fences. Liberty One - 8yo trained by Richard Woollacott. Irish Point to Point winner with 10 runs producing 3 wins, 3 seconds and a 3rd and completing 9 races (slipped up on other run). Clearly capable of jumping fences and 3 miles will be no problem. 3 novice hurdler runs this year winning two including once here at Exeter and was 2nd on only other run, probably better than current hurdling OR of 126. Could give the more favoured runners a big surprise with plenty of experience of Point To Point fences and clearly a chaser in the making. Just do not know yet if he has the ability to be a major contender for a small stable in chase's. Return Spring - 7yo trained by Philip Hobbs with stable jockey Richard Johnson on board. Decent staying hurdler with 3 wins over hurdles with 2 at cheltenham last year in decent staying handicap hurdles. But been poor last 3 runs and was nearly last at Cheltenham 18 days ago in the Pertemps Qualifier. Looks to have lost his way over hurdles and this looks like an attempt to find a future for this horse. One to treat with caution on chase debut but should be ok with the trip. Keep looking at Liberty One as capable of pulling of a shock for a small stable! Of the 3 market leaders If In Doubt looks the most solid selection and most likely to be involved at the finish. 1pt EW - Liberty One - 12\1 PP BOG 2pt Win - If In Doubt - 5\2 PP BOG

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 14.55 Fairyhouse - 2m 5f Beginners Chase All about impressive novice hurdler The Tullow Tank. 2 Grade 1 Novice hurdles wins and sets the standard. Very good things expected of the horse who has been off the track due to issues with previous trainer. Stepping up in distance for the first time today with longest previous run at 2m 2f. Odds to short to get involved. Mala Beach looks to be the one to challenge The Tullow Tank and has had 2 seasons hurdling with the best been 2 grade 2 wins over hurdes. Distance will be no concern with those 2 big wins at 2m 4f and 2 miles. Worth opposing The Tullow Tank with Mala Beach who is proven at the trip. 1pt Win @ 11\4 Bet365 A race of big interest for the future with The Tullow Tank likely to be a decent novice chaser and maybe good enough to challenge in the future top races. All about the future for this horse. Mala Beach for me will probably not prove to be top class in the future but could win plenty of races and trainer Gordon Elliot will probably place this horse to good effect in races around Ireland if he can jump.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Got the Exeter race completely wrong with the 2 selections both failing! If In Doubt unseating A P McCoy at the 2nd and Liberty One coming home last in 4th but ran a reasonable race at the odds as the outsider of the 5 runners. Recent run and already a chase run for the winner proving to be to good for the field. The Tullow Tank looked good jumping well to win at Fairyhouse and is definitely one for the future worth following. Mala Beach not able to challenge finishing 2nd making a few mistakes with his jumping. Bets - 12 Wins - 2 Strike Rate - 16.67% Staked - 19 Pts Loss - 5.8 Pts

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Wednesday 5th November 14.30 Warwick - Class 3 Novice Chase - 2m - Ground Currently Good To Soft 5 runners with only 3 worth looking at. Grumeti - 6yo trained by Alan King making 2nd start over fences after winning on chase debut at Bangor in May. Decent hurdler and was 3rd in the Triumph Hurdle in 2012. Highly tried in hurdles but was never quite able to challange the top horses in the 2m hurdling division but performed with credit a number of times. Was impressive on chase debut jumping well and an easy winner. Carrys a 5lb penalty for that win. 24 career races so unlikely to be progressive but sets a good standard and will be hard to beat. My one concern is the flat pedigree and that previous run over fences may be flattering by the poor opposition, could be vulnerable with the penalty. Vibrato Valtat - 5yo trained by Paul Nicholls making chase debut. Had a recent run over hurdles so race fit and likely to be a decent chaser. Should be suited by race distance running all his races around the 2m distance. 2 hurdles wins at around the 2m distance and has run some good races in hurdles against decent opposition. Thomas Crapper - 7yo trained by Robin Dicken and having 2nd run over fences. Was 3rd behind Court Minstrel recently at Cheltenham with Chris Pea Green 2nd in that race (also 2nd on Sunday at Huntingdon). Again had plenty of career races with a total of 20 with 4 hurdles wins (2 @ 2m and 2 @ 2m 5f). Could be lacking pace to quicken in a 2m chase against 2 rivals much better suited to a 2m race. Vibrato Valtat although making his chase debut is race fit and will be suited by the race distance of 2 miles. The 5lb penalty for Grumeti makes it tough for that horse and Thomas Crapper probably would be better racing over a longer race distance. 1pt Win - Vibrato Valtat @ 2/1 Bet365 BOG

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Welcome winner with Vibrato Valtat winning comfortably at SP of 5\2. Looks to be decent and quickened nicely to win. Thomas Crapper unable to keep pace with the winner and will be better suited over half a mile further (Watch out for this horse in any race at Cheltenham next week, connections seem to enjoy a day out there and had 2 course wins last year). Grumeti was let down with poor jumping. One to add to the Novice Chase tracker and looks a seriously good horse is the winner of the Haldon Gold Cup God's Own trained by a Tom George. Already a Grade 1 Novice Chase winner when winning at Punchestown in the Ryanair for the first time in May. Had not realised that this was still a novice for this year and will be a serious contender in any race between 2m and 2m 4f. Worth following in either Novice chase's or Open Graded Chase's. Will win again this season and quoted in both the Arkle at Cheltenham and the Queen Mother Champion Chase. The former likely to be the target with plenty of future chances for the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Nothing of interest tomorrow but Saturday features the Grade 2 Rising Stars novice chase over 2m 4.5f. Some great chasers have won this in previous years and is always a great pointer for future top class chasers.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Saturday 8th November 13.30 Wincanton - Grade 2 - Rising Stars Novice Chase - 2m 4.5f Just the 4 runners with the current ground with ground described as Good to Soft (Good in Places) but with heavy rain forecast this will turn softer. Hollow Penny - 6yo trained by Alan King and the most experienced chaser in the field with 6 runs over fences with 3 wins including a course and Distance last time out. Been on the go with 8 races since the end of March this year. Most if these chase runs have been good or better ground and may not be suited by the wet ground conditions likely today. Current OR of 142 and best RPR of 145 but unlikely to improve much more. Chase form already well ahead of his hurdling form. Southfield Theatre - 6yo trained by Paul Nicholls with one win on debut chase at Chepstow in October. Made a couple of mistakes that day late on but won comfortably. Many of Paul Nicholls runners have needed there seasonal debut so I expect plenty of improvement today. The fences at Chepstow are harder than here at Wincanton so should be an easier ride today. Current OR 150 and best RPR of 145 after debut run and should prove to be better than those figures. Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in this race often targeting the race with his better novices. Was a decent staying hurdler. Horizontal Speed - 6yo trained by Philip Hobbs who was 2nd at Aintree 2 weeks ago in a novice handicap chase. Will find Wincanton easier to jump and expect to improve on that previous run but made quite a few jumping errors that day. Does get 6lb from the above 2. Best RPR of 137 for that previous run over fences. Decent Novice hurdler but not up to the standard of Southfield Theatre. Tom Neary - Will not finish in front of any of the other 3 barring misfortune to any of the other runners and has shown nothing in previous hurdles or Point to Point runs to indicate any sort of threat. But will pick up some nice place money if he completes. Probably finish half an hour after the others! Southfield Theatre looks the one to win, should improve and could be one of Paul Nicholls top staying novice chaser this season. Hollow Penny unlikely to improve much more and may struggle on the wet ground. Horizontal Speed most likely to challenge for 2nd but if making mistakes will struggle. Betting looks spot on for this. 2pts Win - Southfield Theatre @ 8\11 Skybet BOG

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 13.20 Sandown - Class 2 Novice chase - 2m Chris Pea Green - 6yo trained by Gary Moore with 2 decent runs over fences to finish 2nd both times. Sets a good standard, race fit and able to jump fences. Best RPR in chases of 141 and OR 142. Hurdles OR was 142 with best RPR 145. Gone To Far - 6yo trained by Alan King making chase debut. Would need to improve on hurdling form to challenge the other 2 runners. Best hurdles RPR of 124 with OR 125. Irish Saint - 5yo trained by Paul Nicholls making chase debut. Very smart hurdler with OR 150 and best RPR over hurdles of 152. One concern is lack of recent run with a lot of Paul Nicholls horses not fully fit on seasonal debut and generally improving for there 1st run. One for the future rather than today and expect in time to prove he will be the best chaser of these runners. Chris Pea Green has chase experience with 2 good runs already over fences and is race fit which gives him a big advantage. 2pts Win - Chris Pea Green @ 13\8 PP BOG