Novice Chasers - 2014/2015

[arsenalfh]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015

No thats about it! Feel free to comment, add bets anything you want as long as it relates to novice chasing! Not so much a personal thread but a novice chasing thread for all! Would like this thread to develop into one that has plenty off input from other posters, the more knowledge the better! Certainly helps me to here different views and opinions!

Cheers Smarty, will definitely stay involved here and best of luck.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Sunday 16th November 13.05 Punchestown - Grade 2 Craddockstown Novice Chase - 2m Going currently soft. Alelchi Inois - 6yo trained by Willie Mullins having 6th run over fences. 5 wins from 5 races over fences so far including 2 Grade 3's in last 2 runs. Looks to be a good ground horse and carries a 6lb penalty. Has won 2 hurdles on soft so may get away with it at the minimum trip. Sets the standard with highest OR of 149 and best RPR of 150. Chase wins have been from 2m 1f to 2m 6f. Azorian - 6yo trained by Eoin Griffin having 2nd run over fences. 3rd on chase debut behind the Tullow Tank. Probably short of the required class to win a grade 2 novice chase. Maybe effective at a longer trip. The choice of 1st jockey Bryan Cooper for Giggenstown. Chancol - 5yo trained by Noel Meade having 2nd run over fences. Won on chase debut here at Punchestown over 2m on good ground. Also won maiden hurdle on heavy at this course over 2m 4f. Just 6 rules races and can improve on debut performance. Enjoy Responsibility - 5yo trained by Henry De Bromhead having 5th start over fences. Another that looks to prefer good ground and not shown promise of 1st two chase runs. Won on chase debut but that is the only win in 11 Rules Races. Not good enough to win a grade 2. Sizing Granite - 6yo trained by Henry De Bromhead having 2nd start over fences. Won on chase debut over 2m on yeilding ground. Has won on soft. Open to improvement and looks stable 1st choice. Un Beau Roman - 6yo trained by Willie Mullins having 5th run over fences. Fell last time and looks to prefer good ground. Again for me does not look likely to have the class to win a grade 2. For me a 2 horse race between the 2 market leaders, Chancol and Alelchi Inios. Alelchi Inois may just get away with the ground at the minimum trip but has to carry 6lb more than Chancol who looks the type to Improve, should have less issues with the ground and is suited by the trip. 1pt Win - Chancol @ 10\3 Skybet

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 13.40 Punchestown - Grade 2 Floride Pearl Novice Chase - 2m 6f Going currently Soft. Just going to look at the top 4 as think the winner will come from these. Indevan - 6yo trained by Willie Mullins having 5th chase run. Won 3 form 4 so far with Grade 3 LTO over 2m 4f. Looks to prefer better ground and may just struggle with the extra distance on soft ground. However sets the standard with OR 145 and best RPR 147. Lots Of Memories - 7yo trained by P Fahey having 2nd run over fences. Won on chase debut over 2m 4f. likely to improve and should get the trip (won on soft over 3m) but made mistakes in 1st chase. Shanahan's Turn - 6yo trained by Henry De Broomhead having 2nd run over fences. Won on chase debut over 2m 4f. Has won on soft and this looks the ideal trip. Jumped really well on debut. Very Wood - 5yo trained by Noel Meade. Grade 1 winner of the Albert Bartlett at the festival and winner on chase debut over 2m 6f at Galway. Workman like debut performance and looks an out and out stayer. May just need further and better ground to show class but may have enough to win over an inadequate trip on soft ground. Has won on soft ground over hurdles. Shanahan's Turn for me looks best suited to the ground and trip. 1pt Win - Shanahan's Turn @ 7\2 Skybet

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 14.10 Cheltenham - Grade 2 Arkle Trophy Trial Novice Chase - 2m Going currently soft Running out of time to study race in depth but was at Cheltenham to watch Court Minstrel win LTO over course and distance. Jumped well and quickened nicely to win. May struggle on the ground but was really impressed that day. Vibrato Valtat for me is the big danger. 1pt Win - Court Minstrel @ 10\3 Skybet

[Toast]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Bit too early for me to be betting novices in the season, but, I will throw a few rupees on Duke Of Navan. Obviously, he wants further, but heavy ground will see his stamina kick in and he front runs to make it a proper stamina test.

[robertob]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 WOW super stuff smarty. You banging in the winners! :clap

[arsenalfh]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Was on Chancol and Shanahan's Turn, brilliant stuff Smarty. Was tempted to go for Sizing Granite but you swayed me over to Chancol. :ok Chancol didn't look the most straight forward and his two main rivals fell so it wasn't the biggest challenge. Very Wood was very disappointing but Shanahan's Turn did everything right really, impressive run.

[arsenalfh]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Good novice chase at Plumpton tomorrow. Far West jumped really well I thought and will improve for the run. He also was a top class juvenile but plateaued a bit after a good second to Melodic Rendezvous so his first run over fences was encouraging and could be just what he needed to reignite his career. Trip is a bit of an unknown unlike Deputy Dan who stays 3m although he wasn't as impressive over hurdles and made a few mistakes on his debut over fences. Coneygree also stays 3m and has to be a contender on hurdle form but has been off the track for nearly 2 years which is a big concern. My Silver Cloud looks to have a lot to find in this company. I think Far West is the most interesting here but this trip may stretch him a bit and at 13/8 looks on the short side. Tough race to find some value.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Thanks for all the comments, will respond to all of you with my thoughts!

Bit too early for me to be betting novices in the season' date=' but, I will throw a few rupees on Duke Of Navan. Obviously, he wants further, but heavy ground will see his stamina kick in and he front runs to make it a proper stamina test.[/quote'] Easy for me to say after the event but what put me off Duke Of Navan was his previous race at Carlisle against Urban Hymn. Urban Hymn should have really been suited by a step up in distance on Friday here at Cheltenham but did not look that good finishing 8 lengths behind a good yardstick in Colour Squadron and nearly 13 lengths behind the impressive Champagne West. Expected a better run from Urban Hymn. That form that to me would indicate that Duke Of Navan was not up to required standard for a grade 2 novice chase. Agree that ground suited Duke Of Navan but see that they decided to hold up this horse. As you say would have been better to have raced up with the pace and was never able to get on terms been behind at all times. I am not sure that I would want to see this horse over much further but a change of race tactics would probably pay dividends in future. Thanks for looking in Toast, really appreciate your comments.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015

Good novice chase at Plumpton tomorrow. Far West jumped really well I thought and will improve for the run. He also was a top class juvenile but plateaued a bit after a good second to Melodic Rendezvous so his first run over fences was encouraging and could be just what he needed to reignite his career. Trip is a bit of an unknown unlike Deputy Dan who stays 3m although he wasn't as impressive over hurdles and made a few mistakes on his debut over fences. Coneygree also stays 3m and has to be a contender on hurdle form but has been off the track for nearly 2 years which is a big concern. My Silver Cloud looks to have a lot to find in this company. I think Far West is the most interesting here but this trip may stretch him a bit and at 13/8 looks on the short side. Tough race to find some value.

Very nice analysis of the race tomorrow, have not looked at it yet will do in the morning, going to spend the rest of my evening catching up on today's racing. Value is a funny word for me, and one very much of opinions. Short prices and favourites can be value depending on various factors. Far West's presence in this race actually for me could make Deputy Dan a value bet and the early prices of 5\4 (now gone) looked a good bet, now best priced 11\10. Deputy Dan will like the ground and gets the trip. Far West steps up distance, has question marks about ground but the form of that chase debut looks much better after Dunraven Storm won the Grade 2 today at Cheltenham. Interesting race indeed.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Monday 17th November 13.30 Plumpton - Class 3 Novice chase - 2m 4f 4 runners with ground heavy. Plumpton is a left handed small course about a mile round with sharp turns and undulations. Requires a good jumper as fences classed as difficult This race today carrys an additional bonus of £60,000 for the winner if succesfull at the Cheltenham festival in 2015. Favourite has won this for the last 5 runnings. Coneygree - 7yo trained by Mark Bradstock making chase debut. Been of the track since January 2013 (660 Days) but was a decent novice hurdler winning 2 grade 2 novice hurdles at Cheltenham at 2m 5f and 3m. Will be suited by ground with wins over hurdles on heavy and soft twice. Jockey Nico De Boinville claims 3lb but probably will not be enough after long time off the track. Deputy Dan - 6yo trained By Oliver Sherwood having 2nd run over fences. Was 2nd on chase debut to Virak at Fontwell with a good jumping performance (one mistake) over 2m 4f. Suited by ground with 3 wins on heavy and 1 win on soft. Also suited by distance with 2 hurdles wins at 2m 4f and 2m 5f. Looks a stayer though and think future will be over 3m plus and could be vulnerable to a horse than can pick up speed and finish quicker (much harder for any horse to achieve on heavy ground) so should be fine today. OR 145 and best RPR of 145 for that run. Far West - 5yo trained by Paul Nicholls having 2nd run over fences. Was 2nd on chase debut to Dunraven Storm at Exeter over 2m 1.5f. Dunraven Storm won at Cheltenham yesterday with a good performance and gives a boost to the quality of that Exeter race. Far West jumped well on debut that day but a step into the unknown today regarding trip with just one previous attempt at any distance further than 2m 1f and was well beaten (44 lengths). Originally questioned his ability on ground but do not think this will be an issue with a win on heavy and 2 wins on soft. Just a question mark over distance. May get the trip but unproven. OR 144 and best RPR of 135. First time Tongue Tie today. My Silver Cloud - 7yo trained by Paddy Butler making chase debut. Plenty of Point To Point experience with plenty of places from 10 runs. 3 hurdles runs in Ireland but showed no ability. Would take a very big shock to be the winner. Deputy Dan looks the most suited by ground and distance and has had the benefit of a previous run. Far West has to prove can stay the distance (may on better ground) but has race fitness and a good boast to form from that Exeter race. Coneygree been off the track to long on chase debut to be considered. All the good prices now gone on Deputy Dan (Opened yesterday at 5\4 and even late last night was 11\10) and now best priced 5\6. Still think Deputy Dan will be very hard to beat and there is enough evidence to still justify a bet at odds on. 1 pt Win - Deputy Dan @ 4\5 PP BOG

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 14.50 Leicester - Class 3 Beginners Chase - 2m Going on chase course is Good to Soft (Good In places but Heavy over flat crossings) 6 runners currently. Leicester is a right handed unandulting course with easy fences to jump but a stiff uphill finish. Deep Trouble - 7yo trained by Ben Case making chase debut. 3 times a winner over hurdles at a decent level. OR 147 over hurdles and best hurdles RPR of 147. Distance will be fine (although may in time be better over longer distances) and no concerns over ground. Trainer 1 from 2 with chasers in last 5 years at the track. Generous Ransom - 6yo trained by Nick Gifford having 2nd chase run. Slipped Up on bend on chase debut at Ascot 16 days ago but did not look a serious contender. 2 previous hurdles wins at 2m 3f and 2m 6f. OR over hurdles 123 and best RPR over hurdles of 126. Will be a better chaser than hurdler. May just struggle at minimum trip and could be better at around 2m 4f. Gone To Far - 6yo trained by Alan King having 2nd chase run. Fell on chase debut at the 1st fence at Sandown. Won novice hurdle over 2m 1/2f at Wetherby on good to soft. Should be fine with ground and trip but has to prove chasing ability. OR over hurdles was 125 with best RPR of 124. Quite a bit to find based on hurdles ability. Such A Legend - 6yo trained by Kim Bailey making chase debut. Should be fine with minimum trip on chase debut with 2 hurdles wins at 2m 1/2f on soft and good to soft ground. Future is probably as a staying chaser. Bit to find on hurdling ratings with OR 127 and best RPR 126 but will be a much better chaser than hurdler. Thomas Crapper - 7yo trained by Robin Dicken having 3rd chase run. The one to beat on chase form and was 3rd on chase debut behind Court Minstrel and Chris Pea Green at Cheltenham in October. Then was 2nd to Vibrato Valtat at Warwick. Both races read well in relation to form and Thomas Crapper has OR 138 over fences and best RPR of 137. Has won over hurdles on heavy and good to soft but may be more effective over 2m 4f based on hurdles form. The one to beat. Three Kingdoms - 5yo trained by John Ferguson making chase debut. Flat breed horse but did win 3 hurdles and must have shown ability to jump the big fences on the schooling ground. Ground and Trip will be fine but the big concern is the flat pedigree. Decent level over hurdles with OR 140 and best RPR of 144. Would need to show ability to jump fences before been considered. Thomas Crapper is the one to consider today of those that have already jumped the bigger fences. Will need to be a decent newcomer to beat this horse. Of the newcomers Deep Trouble and Three Kingdoms look to have the best hurdling ability and may challenge Thomas Crapper for the honours. Deep Trouble has the edge for me with a better chasing profile than the flat breed Three Kingdoms. Think that Thomas Crapper will have to much chase experience to be challenged by the newcomers and looks the most likely winner. Early market support for Three Kingdoms is making the price for this horse look good and worth a bet at the odds. 1pt Win - Thomas Crapper @ 7\4 PP BOG I personally prefer Deep Trouble of the newcomers and again this horse is drifting largely due to price adjustments due to market support for Three Kingdoms. Think this is also worth a bet at the price, so 2 bets for me in this race. 1pt Win - Deep Trouble @ 7\2 Sky BOG

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Deputy Dan obliged at Plumpton. Should have left the race at Leicester alone especially after all the money for the winner Three Kingdoms backed from an early price of 3\1 to 7\4 Fav. Won quite nicely and could win again if connections can find a race with easy fences. Clearly must have impressed on the schooling round. Thomas Crapper looks as if needs 2m 4f minimum.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015

16 bets so far, 5 winners and 6 2nds. Bets - 16 Wins - 5 Strike Rate - 31.25% Staked - 25 Pts Loss - 0.4 Pts At 1pt Win all Bets..... Staked - 16pts Profit - 4.5 Pts Pleased with progress so far.

Updated Totals..... Bets - 28 Wins - 9 Strike Rate - 32.14% Staked - 40 Pts Profit - 1.3 Pts ROI - 3.25% At 1pt Win all bets Staked - 28 Pts Profit - 8.5 Pts ROI - 30.36%

[Toast]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015

Thanks for all the comments, will respond to all of you with my thoughts! Easy for me to say after the event but what put me off Duke Of Navan was his previous race at Carlisle against Urban Hymn. Urban Hymn should have really been suited by a step up in distance on Friday here at Cheltenham but did not look that good finishing 8 lengths behind a good yardstick in Colour Squadron and nearly 13 lengths behind the impressive Champagne West. Expected a better run from Urban Hymn. That form that to me would indicate that Duke Of Navan was not up to required standard for a grade 2 novice chase. Agree that ground suited Duke Of Navan but see that they decided to hold up this horse. As you say would have been better to have raced up with the pace and was never able to get on terms been behind at all times. I am not sure that I would want to see this horse over much further but a change of race tactics would probably pay dividends in future. Thanks for looking in Toast, really appreciate your comments.

I would have to disagree mate. If anything, I'd say he wants further and a decent break between his races. The reynoldstown at Ascot in February looks a nice option. Dont think we saw an Arkle winner in the race, but Dunravens would go close on faster ground with front running tactics in the Maghull chase on national day, whilst the fav and runner up should step up in trip markedly. Travels and jumps very nicely, the RSA at the festival would be nice. Be interesting to see what Nicholls plans are.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Ptit Zig looks a certainty barring disaster on his 2nd chase today. Won easily last week at Exeter over 2m 1.5f. Could be an Arkle contender or JLT contender at the festival and best priced 16\1 for both races. I would favour the Arkle. To short in betting for a bet but worth watching his jumping display to see how good he is.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Friday 21st November 13.30 Ascot - Class 3 Begineers Chase - 2m 3f Going currently Good To Soft Boondooma - 7yo trained by Dr Richard Newland making chase debut. Won PTP on third attempt. 3 hurdles wins from 10 and best hurdles RPR of 132 and current OR 134 over hurdles. 2 runs in October over hurdles winning on seasonal debut. Ground and trip of no concern. Irish Cavalier - 5yo trained by Rebecca Curtis making chase debut. 3 hurdles wins from 5 and best hurdles RPR of 133 and current OR 135 over hurdles. Best hurdles performances at 2m and 2m 1f. Ground no concern. May just struggle with step up in distance on hurdles debut. Not run since April but won hurdles debut after similar break last October. Killala Quay - 7yo trained by Charlie Longsdon making chase debut. 3 hurdles wins from 7 and best hurdles RPR of 149 and current OR 144. Hurdles wins were at 2m 4f and include a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Sandown on Good to Soft. Ground looks fine and there are no concerns over trip, however may better over further with time. Puffin Billy - 6yo trained by Oliver Sherwood having 2nd chase run. Was 3rd on chase debut 16 lengths behind Dunraven Storm who went onto win a Grade 2 novice chase on Sunday. 2nd that day was Far West who on next run was 2nd behind Deputy Dan on Monday at Plumpton. Puffin Billy will improve massively from that chase debut after a long time off the track and sets a very good standard. RPR of 130 for that 1st chase run but expect him to improve that figure tomorrow. Was given OR 140 by the handicapper after that 1st chase run. Ground no concern based on hurdles form. Slight question mark regarding distance but this race is only 1.5f further than that Exeter race and this a much easy track and flatter. Has a grade 2 novice hurdle win at this track over the minimum trip on heavy ground. The Skyfarmer - 6yo trained by Philip Hobbs making chase debut. Decent novice hurdler with best RPR of 138 and OR 137 over hurdles. Won 3 form 5 hurdles. Trainer and jockey in great form. Has had 4 PTP runs winning 1 but UR and fell in 2 others. No concerns over distance but looks to prefer better ground. Verdict Boondooma and Irish Cavalier would need to improve on hurdles form. The Skyfarmer would probably be better suited by good ground. Killala Quay the one to beat on hurdles form and looks best suited to both ground and trip of the all those making chase debut. However the previous chase run by Puffin Billy will give him a big advantage and I expect him to vastly improve on his debut chase run. Also has the best hurdles form, very similar hurdles ratings to Killala Quay, but has a fitness advantage and chase experience. 1 pt Win - Puffin Billy @ 2\1 Skybet

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 14.30 Haydock - Class 2 Novice Chase - 2m 6f Going currently Soft. Golden Hoof - 6yo trained by Nicky Henderson having 4th chase run. Won LTO at Aintree with an impressive win over 2m 4f on Good ground. Not sure soft ground will suit or step up in distance from last run. Virak - 5yo trained by Paul Nicholls having 2nd chase run. Won on debut beating Deputy Dan who won on Monday. Ground no concern with hurdles wins on heavy. Have to take on trust step up in distance will suit but sets the standard based on that chase debut win. Grand Vision - 8yo trained by Colin Tizzard making chase debut. Very hard chase debut here against more experienced rivals. Will probably be better over 3m but will be fine on the ground. Monkey Kingdom - 6yo trained by Rebecca Curtis having 3rd chase run. 2nd on chase debut to the decent Southfield Theatre but unseated LTO at Ascot. Needs to improve jumping. Needs to prove stamina. Ugly Bug and Woodpole Academy look totally outclassed on previous form. Verdict Virak looks the best based on previous chase form and will be fine on the ground. Slight concern stepping up in trip. Monkey Kingdom needs to improve jumping and prove stamina, Grand Vision may need further to be effective at this level and has a tough chase debut here against more experienced rivals and Golden Hoof probably wants better ground to be effective at this trip. 1pt Win - Virak @ 5\4 Skybet

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Good novice hurdler Don Poli makes his debut over fences today for Willie Mullins and the Gigginstown connections. To short for betting on debut but one to watch for future interest. Festival winner at Cheltenham and the 2015 festival likely to be the target again. Maybe the RSA.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015

Good novice hurdler Don Poli makes his debut over fences today for Willie Mullins and the Gigginstown connections. To short for betting on debut but one to watch for future interest. Festival winner at Cheltenham and the 2015 festival likely to be the target again. Maybe the RSA.

Talk about the 4 mile National Hunt Chase for amateur riders after the win today. Another one for the Mullins Team tomorrow at Navan, Vautour with Ruby Walsh on board. Very short odds but high class novice hurdler last year with 3 grade 1 wins including the Supreme Novices hurdle at the festival. Going to be going for the Arkle or JLT at the festival depending on how others in stable get on.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Sunday 23rd November 14.35 Exeter - Class 3 Novice Chase - 3m Going currenty heavy. Cadeau George - 5yo trained by Ben Pauling making chase debut. Been off the track since April this year but a reasonable staying novice hurdler with 1 win from 7 hurdles. That win on heavy ground over 3m at towcester. Looks outclassed on hurdles form. Kaki De La Pree - 7yo trained by Tom Symonds making chase debut. Won only Point to Point and 2 hurdles races on soft at 3m 1f. Performs on heavy ground but been off the track since February. Good staying novice hurdler who progressed well last year. Improved dramatically after debut hurdle run last year and may just need the run on Sunday, will improve on the run tomorrow. Will stay the distance. Return Spring - 7yo trained by the inform Philip Hobbs having 2nd chase run. Was 3rd on debut chase run here at Exeter over 3m on good to soft ground 12 lengths behind a decent winner. Tended to jump right that day but should improve on Sunday. Has won on soft but struggled on heavy going finishing a long way behind when encountering this ground twice. Ground not likely to improve. Highland Retreat - 7yo trained by Harry Fry having 2nd chase run. Saw this make debut at Cheltenham last month when 4th of 5 runners. Never in with a chance late on and probably given an easy ride near the finish. Will improve for that experience and gets a valuable 7lb mares allowance. Proven on heavy ground with 2 wins over hurdles at 3m plus and the has the best hurlding ratings of these. Looks a real stayer and loves the heavy ground. Verdict Highland Retreat will be hard to beat on this heavy ground and is the best of these on hurdles ratings. Gets a valuable 7lb allowance. Good educational 1st chase run at Cheltenham last month will give him a fitness advantage over the 2 making chase debut with Kaki De La Pree likely to better than Cadeau George who looks outclassed based on hurdles form . Return Spring can be a little disinterested at times and does not appear to like heavy going but has had a recent chase run at the track here. 1 pt Win - Highland Retreat @ 5\4 Bet365

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015

Another one for the Mullins Team tomorrow at Navan, Vautour with Ruby Walsh on board. Very short odds but high class novice hurdler last year with 3 grade 1 wins including the Supreme Novices hurdle at the festival. Going to be going for the Arkle or JLT at the festival depending on how others in stable get on.

Impressive winner and looks real Top Class. Going to be a dilemma for the Mullins Stable if Un De Sceaux is equally as impressive if making his debut over fences this week. That will be 2 very strong Arkle contenders with Vatour probably more flexible on distance so they may favour the JLT at the festival. Both to short in price for Cheltenham to risk a bet this far away.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Two Beginners chase's today at Kempton and Ludlow. Nicky Henderson has a runner and the favourite in both. Think he will get a winner in one but not sure at which course. May have a closer look later but a quick glance at both makes me think that these 2 races are best left alone.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Wednesday 26th November 12.50 Wetherby - Class 4 Begineers Chase - 3m 1f 6 runners declared with current ground Soft but with heavy rain due could turn heavy. Billy Twyford - 7yo trained by Lawney Hall making chase debut. Won on 2nd Point To Point beating The Crafty Butcher (Decent Hurdler in Ireland) over 3m on Soft/Heavy Ground. Then joined the Nicky Henderson yard winning his bumper at the 3rd attempt. Has won 3 hurdles races on ground varying from heavy to Good/Firm for current trainer Lawney Hall from distances of 2m 1/2f to 3m 1/2f. The shortest of those wins was here at Wetherby. Current OR rating for hurdles of 127. Looks as if ground and distance will be OK. If In Doubt - 6yo trained by Philip Hobbs having 2nd chase run. Blundered badly at the 2nd fence unseating jockey AP McCoy on chase debut at Exeter so little to go on in relation to chasing. Decent staying hurdler with OR 139 and best RPR of 140 over hurdles. Performs on heavy with 3 runs for 1 win and 2 seconds. Should be fine with distance having run to a good level at around the 3 mile mark. The best of these runners over hurdles. Sego Success - 6yo trained by Alan King having 2nd chase run. Was 4th on chase debut at Chepstow nearly 17 lengths behind a decent winner over 3 miles on soft ground. Made a couple of mistakes but a reasonable debut performance for such an inexperienced horse. Once a winner over hurdles in 4 races. Distance looks fine with that win at 3m 1/2f. Others look better suited to the ground with his better performances coming on better ground than what is expected at Wetherby. OR 128 over hurdles but lightly raced and likely to progress. Thom Thumb - 8yo trained by Paul Webber making chase debut. Just 1 hurdles race and 3 bumper races to date. Shown nothing to indicate that he will be a success on this track at this distance or on this ground. Actually any distance or ground! Not one to consider. Volo Mio - 7yo trained by Chris Grant making chase debut. Just one previous hurdles race but has won 2 Point To Point's from 4 runs in the North of England. Difficult to assess as can not access that Point to Point form. Walk On Al - 6yo trained by Dan Skelton having 2nd chase run. Was 5th on chase debut in a novices handicap chase at Worcester of OR 129 and made a few mistakes then went left at the last. Would need to improve to stand a chance tomorrow. Distance looks no issue, performs on soft ground, unknown if ground turns heavy. Likely to improve on that debut chase run but not sure if enough to challenge. Verdict Happy to rule out Thom Thumb who has not shown any ability on the race track. Volo Mio has had just 1 hurdles race to date (4 PTP - 2 Wins) and probably lacks the race course experience to win tomorrow. Billy Twyford of those making chase debut looks the most solid option and will be fine at the track, distance and ground (soft or heavy). Of those who have already had a chase run, If In Doubt was the best of these over hurdles. Connections have opted for this race rather than either of the 2 Grade 2 novice chase's that will be run at Newbury on Friday and Saturday. Clearly needs to be better than debut but if he jumps to the level of his hurdling ability will be hard to beat. Sego Success and Walk On Al look equally matched based on hurdles form but I rate Sego Success slightly ahead based on there chase form but doubts about both if ground turns heavy. Will advise bet in the morning....likely to be If In Doubt

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Excellent write up Smarty. Great stuff. Have no idea where to start with Novices so always of great interest to read about them. Good luck tomorrow. :ok

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Looking ahead to the Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase at Fairyhouse Apache Stronghold looks a big price with PP at 5\1. Going to have a cheeky 1 pt on the win at that price can only see it getting shorter! Will do a preview at final decs

[arsenalfh]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 What a cracker we have coming our way at Fairyhouse. Might be heading up myself for the first time. Apache Stronghold looked to have some significant improvement in him when beaten by Vautour at Punches town. Didn't travel the best but gave an exceptional horse something to think about. On his debut chasing he travelled really well and he may be better on softer ground as he's a big horse, although he seems to go fine on good. Missed a good bit of last year with injury so he looks a horse well on the up and a major player. Real Steel is also interesting at 8/1 as he didn't finish far behind Valseur Lido giving 6lbs as beaker mentioned in his thread I think. If rain comes as expected you would fancy him to run a great race. Edit: meant good not soft

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015

Wednesday 26th November 12.50 Wetherby - Class 4 Begineers Chase - 3m 1f 6 runners declared with current ground Soft but with heavy rain due could turn heavy. Billy Twyford - 7yo trained by Lawney Hall making chase debut. Won on 2nd Point To Point beating The Crafty Butcher (Decent Hurdler in Ireland) over 3m on Soft/Heavy Ground. Then joined the Nicky Henderson yard winning his bumper at the 3rd attempt. Has won 3 hurdles races on ground varying from heavy to Good/Firm for current trainer Lawney Hall from distances of 2m 1/2f to 3m 1/2f. The shortest of those wins was here at Wetherby. Current OR rating for hurdles of 127. Looks as if ground and distance will be OK. If In Doubt - 6yo trained by Philip Hobbs having 2nd chase run. Blundered badly at the 2nd fence unseating jockey AP McCoy on chase debut at Exeter so little to go on in relation to chasing. Decent staying hurdler with OR 139 and best RPR of 140 over hurdles. Performs on heavy with 3 runs for 1 win and 2 seconds. Should be fine with distance having run to a good level at around the 3 mile mark. The best of these runners over hurdles. Sego Success - 6yo trained by Alan King having 2nd chase run. Was 4th on chase debut at Chepstow nearly 17 lengths behind a decent winner over 3 miles on soft ground. Made a couple of mistakes but a reasonable debut performance for such an inexperienced horse. Once a winner over hurdles in 4 races. Distance looks fine with that win at 3m 1/2f. Others look better suited to the ground with his better performances coming on better ground than what is expected at Wetherby. OR 128 over hurdles but lightly raced and likely to progress. Thom Thumb - 8yo trained by Paul Webber making chase debut. Just 1 hurdles race and 3 bumper races to date. Shown nothing to indicate that he will be a success on this track at this distance or on this ground. Actually any distance or ground! Not one to consider. Volo Mio - 7yo trained by Chris Grant making chase debut. Just one previous hurdles race but has won 2 Point To Point's from 4 runs in the North of England. Difficult to assess as can not access that Point to Point form. Walk On Al - 6yo trained by Dan Skelton having 2nd chase run. Was 5th on chase debut in a novices handicap chase at Worcester of OR 129 and made a few mistakes then went left at the last. Would need to improve to stand a chance tomorrow. Distance looks no issue, performs on soft ground, unknown if ground turns heavy. Likely to improve on that debut chase run but not sure if enough to challenge. Verdict Happy to rule out Thom Thumb who has not shown any ability on the race track. Volo Mio has had just 1 hurdles race to date (4 PTP - 2 Wins) and probably lacks the race course experience to win tomorrow. Billy Twyford of those making chase debut looks the most solid option and will be fine at the track, distance and ground (soft or heavy). Of those who have already had a chase run, If In Doubt was the best of these over hurdles. Connections have opted for this race rather than either of the 2 Grade 2 novice chase's that will be run at Newbury on Friday and Saturday. Clearly needs to be better than debut but if he jumps to the level of his hurdling ability will be hard to beat. Sego Success and Walk On Al look equally matched based on hurdles form but I rate Sego Success slightly ahead based on there chase form but doubts about both if ground turns heavy. Will advise bet in the morning....likely to be If In Doubt

1 Pt Win - If In Doubt @ 5\4 Bet365 BOG

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015

What a cracker we have coming our way at Fairyhouse. Might be heading up myself for the first time. Apache Stronghold looked to have some significant improvement in him when beaten by Vautour at Punches town. Didn't travel the best but gave an exceptional horse something to think about. On his debut chasing he travelled really well and he may be better on softer ground as he's a big horse, although he seems to go fine on good. Missed a good bit of last year with injury so he looks a horse well on the up and a major player. Real Steel is also interesting at 8/1 as he didn't finish far behind Valseur Lido giving 6lbs as beaker mentioned in his thread I think. If rain comes as expected you would fancy him to run a great race. Edit: meant good not soft

The favourite is The Tullow Tank who will be a very popular win having been trained briefly By Dessie Hughes (RIP). Would love to see this horse win but just think that although an impressive winner on his debut chase run, preparations will probably been a little disrupted over the last month. Was a top class novice hurdler last year with 2 Grade 1 wins including the Royal Bond novice hurdle at this same meeting last year. 2/1 Favourite and shorter on Betfair. Daughter Sandra Hughes has taken over training duties and has yet to have a winner but it is only a matter of time and this would be a fairytale 1st win for the yard.

[Aidymac]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 I'd find it hard to back the Tank at the prices, good point Smarty made there about preparations probably not done too well after the passing of Dessie, it can't have helped the yard. Apache Stronghold has to have massive each-way claims at 5's.. Looked very impressive in the monksfield over hurdles last season, and has taken to fences really well, couldn't have done more, major claims.