Novice Chasers - 2014/2015

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Chris Pea Green 2nd again and sure to win but good winner from the Paul Nicholls stable with Irish Saint. Nicholls looks to have a decent crop of novice chasers this year. Will come back to this during the week with more thoughts. Southfield Theatre was an impressive winner at Wincanton and looks to have a big future. RSA long term Cheltenham target.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Good beginners race at Navan Sunday afternoon with 2 potentially good novice chasers. Blood Cotil for Ruby Walsh and Mullins and Gilgamboa for Edna Bolger and JP McManus. A race worth watching. Have not got time for full review but will watch with interest

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015

Good beginners race at Navan Sunday afternoon with 2 potentially good novice chasers. Blood Cotil for Ruby Walsh and Mullins and Gilgamboa for Edna Bolger and JP McManus. A race worth watching. Have not got time for full review but will watch with interest

Gilgamboa won and looks one to watch in Ireland at the minimum trip. Decent debut chase run with RPR of 138.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Monday 10th November Mickie makes her dubut over fences in the Graduation chase at Carlisle in the 15.00. Tough race to make chase debut but gets a big weight allowance against rivals that have all had chasing experience and won over fences. Based on hurdles form would have a chance but not worth the risk at such a short price (9\4 best currently available). One to watch and a good performance against these rivals would mean that she will be worth following this year. Going to look at the Novice chase been run at Carlisle. 13.50 Carlisle - Class 3 Novice Chase - 2m 4f 7 runners on heavy ground (soft in Places) with a uphill home straight. Easy fences to jump. Back To Bracka - 7yo trained by Lucinda Russell making chase debut. Looks to have something to find based on hurdles form. Best hurdles RPR 118 and OR 125. Should be ok on ground and has won at distance over hurdles at Sligo on soft. Ifandbutwhynot - 8yo trained by David O'Meara making chase debut. Decent handicap hurdler at the minimum trip with 4 wins and best hurdles RPR 142 and OR 138. Only once tried at over 2m 1f when a long way back at Cheltenham on good ground when attempting 2m 5f. Have to trust trainers judgement that he will get the distance on todays ground. Kaikias - 7yo trained by Lynsey Kendall who has had no winners for over 5 years (if ever?) . Moved from Jonjo O'Neill yard and showed little over hurdles. Looks to have no chance but will get the trip having completed those 3 previous hurdles runs over 3m on ground similar to today. Best Hurdles RPR 108 and OR 112. Chase debut but has had previous Point To Point experience when placed 3 times. Premier Grand Cru - 8yo trained by James Ewart making chase debut. Been off the track for nearly 3 years. Big task on come back run. Reasonable hurdles form back in 2011 with best hurdles RPR 135 and OR 125. Sir Mangan - 6yo trained by Donald McCain having 2nd run over fences. Unseated rider at the 3rd on chase debut at Aintree and will find these fences much easier. Has a bit to find on hurdles form with best hurdles RPR of 127 and OR 125. Ground and trip should be fine. Stopped Out - 9yo trained by Philip Kirby who has run 6 times already in chases finishing 2nd four times. Previous hurdles form is the best of these runners with best RPR over hurdles of 144 and OR 142. Chase ratings not up to that standard but best chase RPR of 124 and OR 132. Sets the chasing standard. Will get the trip and has won on heavy ground. Been running on the flat this summer and will be race fit. Comes back to the chasing game after a 2 year break. 47 career runs on the flat and jumps and unlikely to have any improvement. Golden Sparkle - 8yo trained by Ian Duncan making chase debut. Looks to have little chance based on hurdles form with just 3 wins from 17 hurdles but those wins were at around todays distance. Best hurdles RPR of 122 and OR 122. Difficult race with no stand out candidate and all having question marks against them! Think the favourite Ifandbutwhynot is worth opposing on this ground and at this trip. Sir Mangan and Back to Bracka probably have the best chance of improvement but have need to improve on previous hurdles form. Stopped Out gets the vote from me but only just. Has had chase experience, goes on the ground, will get the trip and sets a decent hurdles standard. Needs to be better than when previously chasing but probably not by much to win. 1 pt Win @ 11\4 Bet365 BOG

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Stopped Out wins by 5 lengths at SP 10\3. 16 bets so far, 5 winners and 6 2nds. Bets - 16 Wins - 5 Strike Rate - 31.25% Staked - 25 Pts Loss - 0.4 Pts At 1pt Win all Bets..... Staked - 16pts Profit - 4.5 Pts Pleased with progress so far.

[robertob]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Well done mate, your write-ups are spot on. :ok

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Quick update on the Horse's I have put in my tracker to date. More will be added and will probably just update this list once a week. Have separated the Irish horses. All must achieve a RPR of 145 or higher in a chase to qualify and all are classed as novice chasers for this season. Currently listed under distance that they have achieved best RPR or races won but many in the 2m 4f could step up or down in distance. Links are to Racing Post horse Profile. [TABLE]

[TR] [TD=align: center]UK - 2m[/TD] [TD=align: center]Best RPR[/TD] [TD=align: center]Uk - 2m 4f[/TD] [TD=align: center]Best RPR[/TD] [TD=align: center]UK - 3m +[/TD] [TD=align: center]Best RPR[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]God's Own[/TD] [TD=align: center]159[/TD] [TD=align: center]Southfield Theatre[/TD] [TD=align: center]154[/TD] [TD=align: center]The Romford Pele[/TD] [TD=align: center]154[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Irish Saint[/TD] [TD=align: center]146[/TD] [TD=align: center]Colour Squadron[/TD] [TD=align: center]153[/TD] [TD=align: center]Creepy[/TD] [TD=align: center]147[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: center]Splash Of Ginge[/TD] [TD=align: center]146[/TD] [TD=align: center]The Young Master[/TD] [TD=align: center]147[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: center]Hollow Penny[/TD] [TD=align: center]145[/TD] [TD=align: center]Carole's Destrier[/TD] [TD=align: center]145[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Irish - 2m[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: center]Irish - 2m 4f[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: center]Irish - 3m +[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Ted Veale[/TD] [TD=align: center]153[/TD] [TD=align: center]Perfect Gentleman[/TD] [TD=align: center]151[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: center]Sadler's Risk[/TD] [TD=align: center]150[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: center]Alelchi Inios[/TD] [TD=align: center]150[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: center]Indevan[/TD] [TD=align: center]147[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: center]The Tullow Tank[/TD] [TD=align: center]146[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: center]Shanahan's Turn[/TD] [TD=align: center]146[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: center]Real Steel[/TD] [TD=align: center]145[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Tuesday 11th November 13.10 Huntingdon - Class 4 Novice Handicap Chase - 3m Going currently Soft. Flat chase course with difficult jumps. Tothemoonandback - 6yo trained by Gary Moore having his 4th run over fences. Won at Plumpton over 3m 2f on heavy ground last week and has a 7lb penalty today. Trainer has put up Conditional Jockey George Gorman (claiming 10lb). Runs off OR 102 today and looks much better than that figure when winning last week off OR 105. Stand out piece of form is his 2nd run at Wincanton last October when 2nd to Standing Ovation who progressed to OR 130 horse. Does make mistakes when jumping but keeps on his feet and as long as the jockey sits tight should get around. This horse looks very well handicapped. Ground and trip of no concern and not a hard race last week that he won. Oscars Way - 6yo trained by Don Cantillon making chase debut. All best hurdles form on good ground and only 2 attempts on ground worse than good resulted in finishing miles behind. Course winner over hurdles at 3m 2f here in October this year. Frontier Vic - 7yo trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies having 2nd chase run. 3rd on chasing debut when not fluent and making mistakes at Southwell. Again looks better on decent ground. Likely to improve and goes well for Jockey Ryan Hatch. Brantingham Breeze - 6yo trained by Emma Lavelle making chase debut. Yet to win in 6 hurdles but looks to be capable of getting todays distance on the ground. Generally a horse that is held up. Was 4 lengths behind Over My Head at Taunton in a handicap Hurdle in February and both run off the same rating today. Trainer Emma Lavelle having a slow start with her chasers this year. Dixie Bull - 9yo trained by Tom Symonds making chase debut. Looks fragile and been very poor over hurdles with just 7 hurdle runs since 2010 and yet to place in a hurdles race. Over My Head - 6yo trained by Claire Dyson making chase debut. Won once over hurdles at Uttoxeter over 3m in a handicap hurdle on heavy ground. Struggled off a higher mark since that win and looks up against it today. Would need to improve on hurdles form to figure. Seasonal reappearance and probably will need today's run. Was a long way behind on previous seasonal debut. Tothemoonandback looks hard to oppose due to previous chase form and what on paper looks a very favourable handicap mark for today. I think he will be a OR 120 horse at minimum and any performance around that figure will be way to good. Race fitness and chase experience put him well ahead of his rivals. Drifting in price but think he looks a good thing...... 1pt Win - Tothemoonandback @ 7\4 Skybet (Price Boost)

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 14.40 Huntingdon - Class 3 Novices Limited Handicap Chase - 2m 4.5f 8 runners in the best novice handicap chase of the day. My Wigwam Or Yours - 5yo trained by Nicky Henderson with Barry Geraghty on board making chase debut. Always seems to find one or two others to good in his hurdles races. One win from 6 hurdles runs. Jockey Barry Geraghty is worth a few extra pounds on novice chasers. Top weight today and unlikely to be much better than his hurdle rating of OR 135. A Tail Of Intrigue - 6yo trained by Ian Williams having won on his chase debut in a novice handicap chase here at Huntingdon in October over 2m 1/2f on good ground. Up 9lb for that win to OR 127. Looks to prefer better ground than today's. May struggle on this ground on revised mark. O Maonlai - 6yo trained by Tom George making chase debut. No concerns over ground based on previous hurdles form in Ireland and looked as if this trip would not be an issue with a staying on 4th last time out at Wexford over 2m 4f on yielding ground. Hurdles debut in November last year looks his best form when finishing 5 length 3rd to Top novice hurdler The Tullow Tank. Has won a bumper and maiden hurdle on heavy ground. Bred to be a chaser he should prove to better than current hurdling OR of 127. Ned Stark - 6yo trained by Alan King making chase debut. Just 3 career runs, 2nd in his point to point and then 2nd and 1st in his 2 hurdles runs. That win over hurdles at Chepstow was over 2m 4f on good to soft ground. No concerns over ground or trip but could be anything! Uhlan Bute - 6yo trained by Venetia Williams making chase debut. Won twice over hurdles at the minimum trip. May just struggle at this longer trip and has been poor over any distance above the minimum. Walkabout Creek - 7yo trained by Kevin Frost having 5th run over fences today. Been a long way behind in all 4 chase runs. Usually makes mistakes and probably needs a bigger drop in OR to have any chance of success. Crookstown - 7yo trained by Ben Case having 2nd run over fences after winning on debut at Uttoxeter in a novice handicap chase over 2m on good to soft ground. Up 7lb for that win to OR 121. No concerns over ground or trip. Theatrebar - 6yo trained by Tom Symonds making chase debut. Ground, distance and course all positive based on previous hurdles form. Likely to show improvement on hurdles form now chasing. Crookstown looks the best of these with previous chase form but I do not think he will be better than his current rating and could be vulnerable to one making chase debut. Of those making there debut.... Top weight puts me off My Wigwam Or Yours who is also unlikely to be much better than current OR and often finds one to good. Ned Stark is interesting but to short in the betting and big task to win after just 2 hurdle runs. O Maonlai looks an interesting contender based on previous hurdles form in Ireland and should improve for the switch to fences. Also think Theatrebar could run better than hurdles form. Both are breed to be chasers. 1pt EW - O Maonlai @ 6\1 Paddy Power BOG 1 pt EW - Theatrebar @ 9\1 Paddy Power BOG

[robertob]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Very interesting race. Took me more than an hour last night to look through it and I ended up with Theatrebar myself when he was available around 16's, but then decided to put him on the tracker and watch the race as it looks so wide open and pretty hot that I didn't want to get involved. Saw Hugh Taylor from ATR has made the horse his selection as well, so you're surly on a very interesting horse. GL!

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Tothemoonandback does the business returning at SP of 5\2. Theatrebar was 2nd just headed at the post at SP of 7\1. Ned Stark the winner but would not have backed at the price but looks one to watch out for next time. O Maonlai was 4th a long way behind the leading trio. Small profit on the day and brings the thread into profit.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Wednesday 12th November 15.20 Ayr - Class 3 Novices Limited Handicap Chase - 3m 1f Just the 3 runners...... Vasco Du Mee - 5yo trained By Gordon Elliott in Ireland who will be having 6th run over fences. Easy winner over fences for the 1st time at Down Royal on the 1st day of November. Has completed all 5 previous runs over fences and will have no problems with the trip or ground. Top weight and OR 130 by UK handicapper (125 by Irish). Real stayer and sets the standard. May have been over rated by handicapper. Wicklow Gold - 6yo trained by N Alexander having 2nd start over fences. Was previously with Willie Mullins and made chase debut in June when 2nd at Downpatrick. Was a better hurdler than Vasco Du Mee but gets 6lb today from Vasco Du Mee. Stephen Mulqueen is the jockey claiming an additional 7lb. Has won a hurdles on soft. Ballyben - 6yo trained by Lucinda Russell having 7th start over fences. Won last time out but may be suited by better ground. Runs from out of handicap (carries 2lb more than OR). Was well beaten by Vasco Du Mee (2nd) at Ayr in a novice chase over 2m 5f when 28 lengths behind (received 4lb) and unlikely to turn the tables today even though receiving 19lb. Originally looked at the race and thought Vasco Du Mee was a certainty but now think that he may be over rated and have to much weight to carry. Wicklow Gold looks better treated on hurdles form but has a disadvantage against 2 rivals who have had more jumping experience and the benefit of a recent run. Ballyben receives a lot of weight from his rivals but does not look a great deal better than his handicap mark. Wicklow Gold has a Conditional jockey on board claiming a valuable 7lb and could be open to improvement. If this was a hurdle would be carrying top weight. 1pt Win - Wicklow Gold @ 4\1 Paddy Power BOG

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Also watch out for Ptit Zig making chase debut at Exeter. Very good hurdler but to short in odds to have a bet. Could be very good.

[Toast]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Interesting thread you've got, that I will be keeping a close eye in the next few months. I don't normally bet novices until they've had a few runs, but 1 that has taken my eye this season is Duke Of Navan. Looks a stayer in the making IMO. Already won at Carlisle over the minimum trip and is entered in the grade 2 at Cheltenham this Sunday. That race is usually very informative. Looks to have a preference for soft ground, the Towton at Wetherby or Reynoldstown at ascot in February look ripe for him.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Wicklow Gold was a poor choice and finished miles behind in last! Poor race for me as never considered the winner. Ptit Zig was an easy winner justifying the very short odds. Looks to have a big future this year and another good novice chaser for the Paul Nicholls stable. At this stage the stable look as if they will have plenty of novice chasers to challenge for all the top graded races. Nothing for today of interest but Friday we have a 2m 4.5f class 2 novice chase at Cheltenham. Final declarations later but looks as if a good quality field will line up. 2013 winner Taquin Du Seuil went onto win the JLT novice chase at The festival. 2012 winner Dynaste was 2nd in Jewson (now JLT) novice chase at the festival and won the Ryanair chase at the festival in march this year. 2011 Winner Grand Crus won the Grade 1 Feltham chase at Kempton and 4th at the Festival behind Bob's Worth. Other notable winners of this race include... Imperial Commander who went onto win the Ryanair, Gold Cup and Betfair Chase. Denman who went onto win Royal & Sun Allaince (Now RSA), Lexus Chase and Gold Cup. A race I am looking forward to.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Friday 14th November 14.25 Cheltenham - Class 2 Novice Chase - 2m 4.5f Old Course Ground currently Good To Soft 7 runners declared...... Bullet Street - 6yo trained by Evan Williams having 10th Chase run. Won twice over fences and carries a 8lb penalty for those wins. Looks to prefer good ground or better. Won last time out at Ludlow and OR of 130 with best RPR of 132 achieved LTO. Already rated a much better chaser than hurdler but does not look good enough to win with the penalty. Did win a maiden hurdle in Ireland on heavy over 2m. Unlikely to improve enough to win this. Splash Of Ginge - 6yo trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies having 3rd chase run. On my list of novice chases to follow after a CD win last time out. Gained a RPR of 146 and OR 146 for that performance. Carrys a 8lb penalty for that class 2 win. Grade 3 handicap hurdle winner over 2m 1/2f. No concerns over ground. Not sure has the ability to be real top class but very strong contender. Champagne West - 6yo trained by Philip Hobbs making chase debut. Did win on only Point to Point run. Future probably is over 3m + over fences. Decent novice hurdler rated OR 142 with best RPR over hurdles of 143 in the 3m Albert Bartlett at the festive when 4th and also same RPR for win in class 3 novice hurdle at Ascot over 2m 6f. Colour Squadron - 8yo trained by Philip Hobbs having 9th run over fences. Yet to win a chase but some excellent performances in defeat and some very poor performances. Run really well in big Grade 3 handicaps here at Cheltenham at around today's distance. OR of 152 and sets a high standard. Dell' Arca - 5yo trained by David Pipe making chase debut. Looks better suited to 2m and this could be the limit of his stamina. Decent Novice hurdler rated OR 145 and best RPR over hurdles of 145. May just struggle up the hill to the finish. The Wexfordian - 5yo trained by Martin Keighley making debut over fences after one 2nd in a Point To Point and 2 bumper runs. Very tough introduction to jumping and likely outsider! Urban Hymn - 6yo trained by Malcolm Jefferson making 2nd run over fences. Was 2nd on Chase debut at Carlisle over 2m to the smart looking Duke Of Navan. RPR of 135 for that performance with the handicapper allocating a mark of 141. Will be suited by step up in distance from debut but may still need further. Looks a real stayer to me. Off those who have run over fences Urban Hymn, Colour Squadron and Splash Of Ginge are the 3 to concentrate on. Bullet Street looks outclassed and will be hard for him to concede 8lb to 5 other horses. Colour Squadron for me is the one to beat from those who have previously run over fences and this will be his easiest and best chance to get that 1st win over fences. Has a good record here at Cheltenham in Grade 3 handicap chase's and if runs to that sort of form will be hard to beat. The 8lb penalty to be carried by Spash Of Ginge will make it hard for him to beat Colour Squadron but has winning C and D form form the October meeting. Urban Hymn may just need heavy ground to be effective at this trip and may be better over further in time. Will be better for step in distance from last time. However these fences are a lot harder than those he jumped at Carlisle. These 3 have a big advantage with chase experience and a recent run. Off those making chase debut Dell' Arca and Champagne West are the 2 to concentrate on. The Wexfordian could be anything! Dell' Arca may just struggle uphill at the finish over this distance and would probably have been better over 2m in his 1st race over fences. Fancy Champagne West to be best of these 2 but his future for me is over further.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Bets As Follows..... 2pt Win - Colour Squadron @ 9\4 PP BOG and also because I think he is better than 5th in the betting (despite 8lb Penalty) 1pt Win - Splash Of Ginge @ 13\2 PP BOG

[Aidymac]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Great write up once more Smarty. I applaud you. I backed Colour Squadron last time out and was really pee'd off, travelled like a dream and found zilch in the closing stages. He seems to always find one too good, are you worried about him getting up the hill at all? He has some good form at the track, no doubt but he travelled very well in the Byrne Group Plate and Ballynagour whizzed by, but last time out I had him backed and I thought Tom O'Brien panicked on the horse and gave him a rather poor ride. He will deffo travel like a winner, I just have questions about him lasting home without being collared. Should be a cracking race this.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015

Great write up once more Smarty. I applaud you. I backed Colour Squadron last time out and was really pee'd off, travelled like a dream and found zilch in the closing stages. He seems to always find one too good, are you worried about him getting up the hill at all? He has some good form at the track, no doubt but he travelled very well in the Byrne Group Plate and Ballynagour whizzed by, but last time out I had him backed and I thought Tom O'Brien panicked on the horse and gave him a rather poor ride. He will deffo travel like a winner, I just have questions about him lasting home without being collared. Should be a cracking race this.

If he is ever going to win a chase it has to be in the race! Also bet him last time out and think this is a horse that will take me to the cliff's edge but will win a chase one day! You are right going to need a good ride and needs to be coming strong up the hill, hopefully will have some company otherwise he will lose interest!. Just think he is a touch above these on class, form and what he has done in previous chase's and it will be a very good horse that beats him.

[robertob]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Great preview smarty. Agree with you in most points absolutely. Colour Squadron a very worthy favourite, deserves to head the market. Wondering myself though, what Aidy also mentioned, if he may not find one too good again today, given that there are a good deal of unexposed and likely improvers in the field. On the other hand he sets a very good standard, as you rightly point out, which one has to beat first. All about opinions in the end. Bit concerned about the weight that Splash Of Ginge has to carry because of his recent success. Price takes that into account though and is match fit. If he wins he'd confirm to be a very promising sort. Looking forward to the race! :ok

[Aidymac]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 The real concern for me was he was receiving 16 pounds in the weights from Wonderful Charm last time out, and had a huge advantage half a mile from home, it was a bad sign that he couldn't see it out getting that much weight for me personally. I thought last time out was the most winnable chase he could ever have with Taquin, Wonderful Charm having their seasonal debuts. Champagne West is interesting, Dell Arca is still unexposed over fences, Urban Hymn is a solid campaigner and Splash of Ginge is way overpriced so I agree with your bet on him Smarty, he will love the track and going left handed. Great race in store.

[Toast]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Colour Squadron looks like a plugger to me with a preference for soft ground. 3m or more beckons. Welsh National, the Pillar Chase or 1 of the other grade 3 staying chases should suit him.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Colour Squadron! What can I say just does not want to win! You have got him spot on Aidy, I still think he has the ability as he is a good jumper of fences but really not sure what type of course and race will suit! Maybe as Toast suggests send him over further but looks to need a big field to be at his best would certainly not back him in a small field event again. Actually think he probably ran just below his (2 or 3lb) OR today but was beaten by decent horse in Champagne West who loved the soft ground and looks a real good stayer who's future will be around 3m. Colour Squadron does not have the finishing speed for race's at around 2m 4f and a step up in distance could be the key. Connections need try something different! Race was effected by omitting 6 fences only jumping 10 and the last today was the usual 3rd last fence. Ground meant that this would suit a horse with stamina and Champagne West was best equipped for this. Champagne West will be of big interest next time out at a distance likely to be further than today. Of the others Spash Of Ginge a big disappointment but is better than that performance today, but as I previously mentioned pre-race probably not top class. Still think despite the result his odds were to high for a Course, Distance and class winner of a chase. Maybe give an easier ride near the finish when STD the jockey realised that they had no chance. Maybe needs a flatter track or maybe a drop back to 2m to show his best. Urban Hymn ran well but was not able to keep pace with the front 2 and a pleasing debut from Dell' Arca who again possibly needs a flatter track or drop back to 2m. Not a great race due to lack of jumping with 6 missed out but the one to watch is definitely Champagne West. Colour Squadron, well watch this space but still a very interesting novice chaser and will always generate debate! And one I will probably lose my shirt with. Anyway looking forward to the next novice chase at Cheltenham tomorrow over 3m 1/2f. Thanks for looking everyone and Aidy, Rob and Toast for great contributions really appreciate the different opinions and contributions. That is what I hoped the thread would generate, interest and opinions! By the way take a look at Robertob's Jump Racing thread, great reviews and gives a very good alternate view to some of the races I cover.... Link here...... http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/137500-Robertob-s-jump-racing-thread

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Saturday 15th November 13.15 Cheltenham - Class 2 Novice race - 3m 1/2f Ground currently Soft (Good to soft in places) 5 runners of which 4 won on chase debut and one making debut over fences. Creepy - 6yo trained by Martin Keighley having 2nd run over fences. Won on chase debut at Chepstow over 3m on good ground in September in novice handicap chase by a clear 20 lengths. Best form is on good ground with 2 hurdles wins, one of which was in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at this meeting last year. Was very impressive on debut. Richard Johnston has the ride again. Plenty of experience at the course with 7 runs here for a record of 4-4-2-2-1-5-14. OR 143 over fences with best RPR of 147. Drop Out Joe - 6yo trained by Charlie Longsdon also having 2nd run over fences. Won on chase debut at Carlisle over 2m 4f on soft ground in a novice chase. Seemed to stay the distance over hurdles with good placed form around 3 miles in class 2 handicap hurdles. One previous hurdles run at Cheltenham when well behind Creepy at this meeting last year. Again looks better on good ground but a decent run last year in a Pertemps qualifier at Warwick in January on heavy ground over 3m 1f indicates that ground should be no issue. OR 138 but RPR only gave 122 for that chase run. Quite a variance and his probable ability is somewhere in the middle of those 2 ratings. Could find it tough but handicapper has given connections little choice. Knock House - 5yo trained by Mick Channon also having 2nd chase run. Won on chase debut over 2m 5.5f on good ground. Looked very impressive that day and jumped very well. That race was the 2nd longest Knock House has run over (one attempt at 2m 6f when good 2nd to Champagne West in a hurdle)and have to take on trust he will get the extra distance today. Gives the impression he will. No concerns over ground. OR 135 but best RPR of 143. Both Knock House and Creepy finished tailed of in the Neptune at the festival this year. Sausalito Sunrise - 6yo trained by Philip Hobbs also having 2nd chase run. Won on chase debut over 3m on soft at Chepstow in a novice chase in October. Will stay no problems and ground as perfect with all wins on soft or good to soft. Also 4 hurdles wins around the 3 mile distance. OR 145 and best RPR of 138 for that chase run. Much better staying hurdler than any of the above. Tom O'Brien keeps the ride for a trainer who had a good 1st day at this years meeting with a 1-2 in Fridays novice chase. Kings Palace - 6yo trained by David Pipe making chase debut. Gets a valuable 5lb from all the other runners. 2 Cheltenham wins over hurdles at around 3m but looks at his best on good ground (exception is when falling in the Albert Bartlett at the festival). Will stay the distance. A slight concern over falling twice over hurdles. But was probably the best of these over hurdles. Kings Palace is to short in the betting to justify a bet. Of the others the standout for me is Sausalito Sunrise who will stay, love the ground and based on hurdles form is ahead of the other 3 who have had a chase win. Creepy probably wants better ground, Knock House unknown over this trip and Drop Out Joe probably not quite up to this level. 1pt Win - Sausalito Sunrise @ 5\2 Bet365 BOG

[Aidymac]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 I think Squadron bumped into an out and out stayer with speed today, it was a good run by Colour Squadron and they were well clear of the remainder. Would not give up on him yet. I think the 6 fences of the 15 that were left out destroyed the race though, it was basically a flat race. The horse never seems to find what you think he will because he comes there full of gas on the bridle. Tough to know where he goes from here, but I think he would be suited to Kempton the way he travels.

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Nice beginners chase at Punchestown today over 2m 4f worth watching. Valseur Lido the odds on favourite for Mullins and Gigginstown with Bryan Cooper onboard. Decent grade 2 novice hurdler over the minimum trip and 2nd to Faugheen in the Novice Champion hurdle here in April. No bet but a race to watch.

[arsenalfh]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Really interesting read here. I'm going to focus on novice hurdlers and chasers so this thread will be very useful. :ok

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015

Really interesting read here. I'm going to focus on novice hurdlers and chasers so this thread will be very useful. :ok

Go for it! You will find that novice chasers and novice hurdlers require a different approach though! To very different disciplines. Some great judges of horses on this forum in various threads, read them all to get different views about races. Billyhills is the expert on novice hurdlers and usually runs a novice hurdle thread, not started it yet for this season but watch out for it soon! Make sure you read up on the National Hunt Horses To follow thread in main section, good starting point. Good luck!

[arsenalfh]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015

Go for it! You will find that novice chasers and novice hurdlers require a different approach though! To very different disciplines. Some great judges of horses on this forum in various threads, read them all to get different views about races. Billyhills is the expert on novice hurdlers and usually runs a novice hurdle thread, not started it yet for this season but watch out for it soon! Make sure you read up on the National Hunt Horses To follow thread in main section, good starting point. Good luck!

Interesting. Don't want to spam your thread but I find myself looking at races more or less the same way. When you say a very different approach is this because novice hurdlers are coming from the flat, bumpers and the juvenile division with limited experience over obstacles unlike novice chasers? Or am I missing something when looking at these races? I'll keep an eye out, cheers!

[Smarty72]

Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 No thats about it! Feel free to comment, add bets anything you want as long as it relates to novice chasing! Not so much a personal thread but a novice chasing thread for all! Would like this thread to develop into one that has plenty off input from other posters, the more knowledge the better! Certainly helps me to here different views and opinions!