October 6 - October 12

[shambata]

Re: October 6 - October 12 I have two bets for Cairns 15k women's tonite: 1., Ellen Allgurin to beat Alison Bai @1,57 Priscilla Hon to beat Karis Ryan @1,28 Doubles @ 2,02, bet365, 5/10 As I have explained earlier I am a big fan of Allgurin, I think she posseses bigger and more weapons than Bai, whose only big weapon is her serve. Therefore I pick Allgurin to advance here. Hon has showed great form so far, although Ryan beat Jessica Moore (really out of form and hasn't played for a long time), I dont beleive she has the talent ot beat Hon here. 2., Ayaka Okuno to beat Mana Ayukava@2,0, bet365 5/10 Okuno has beaten two cca. 300 ranked players in two weeks, she beats Zokova in Juarez 25k, and Inoue here in the 1st round, that shows that she stepped up a level in my opinion, I rate her more talented young player than Ayukava, who beats two easy out of form players in the first rounds. She will face a much tougher opponent Okuno. GL

[Torque]

Re: October 6 - October 12

What a great call with Cengiz' date=' Shambata....thanks mate...respect![/quote'] I have to doff my cap to Shambata also. I know very little about tennis below ATP and WTA level, and so it's great to have someone posting regularly who has knowledge of players that aren't so well known.

[shambata]

Re: October 6 - October 12

What a great call with Cengiz' date=' Shambata....thanks mate...respect![/quote'] I do my best!!!! Let's keep it rolling mate!!!

[shambata]

Re: October 6 - October 12 What a bad supporting match for the parlay, Allgurin take care of the job as usual and I was over my head with the Hon pick... To be honest my knowledge does not extend sometimes to players who are rarely in Europe..... Okuno took care of biz luckily so we split the night! Updated bankroll: +95,15 units Thursday Jelena Simic to beat Sina Haas (Santa Margherita 10k) @2.1, bet365, 4/10 I believe this is a pick'em, or rather Simic should be a sligth favourite. I think last weeks victory over Nancarrow and her recent form suggests that. Sina Haas has been nothing special lately, but go easy on this b/c Simic also is very up and down. I1m only betting on this because of the difference btw 1.8 (where the line should be) and 2.1 (where it is now) GL!

[CzechPunter]

Re: October 6 - October 12 Back Karolina Pliskova (-2.5) to beat Mona Barthel for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with Bet365 Pliskova has been very impressive recently and she looked good in her match against Flipkens in the first round, so I expect her to be way too strong for Mona Barthel today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/pliskova-vs-barthel-betting-karolina-pliskova-to-make-it-through-to-the-third-round-in-linz

[shambata]

Re: October 6 - October 12 Simic booom, good read on that one, coming back from 35 in the first set.... that was lucky too :) More for today 3 match treble Lao/Wong to beat Oosterhuit/O-Pizer (Rock Hill 25k WD) @1.25 Guarachi/Marand to beat Gabueva/Zhu (Rock Hill 25k WD) @1.36 Ann-Sophie Mestach to beat Gabriella Ce (Monterrey 50k) @1.16 3 match parlay, bet365, @1.98, 5/10 Unbelievable from for Marand and also Guarachi a quality doubles player... Lao/Wong, doubles specialist Wong and Lao also great in doubs and is in good form. I thnik just too good for their opponents, who are talented juniors but they are up against too much here. Mestach is automatic on hard courts and although Ce is a crafty lefty and was one of my faviourites to bet on last year when she stormed through the 10k tourneys, she is not in a great form and she is much better on clay also. Mestach overall a much better player and a hard court specialist, hence the odds, but we take it for our treble maker. GL

[BallsforTennis]

Re: October 6 - October 12 Shanghai Masters Quarter Final - Feliciano Lopez vs Mikhail Youhzny Feliciano's style of play suits Youzhny: Feliciano's style of play is to massage the ball around the court and weave an opening to allow him to take the ball a little more on the front-foot. It's essentially point construction with the aid/use of variety and intelligent shot choice. This however is also Youzhny's style of play and imo it's a style of play he is more adept at executing. (Esp when in this hitting rhythm) Why Youhzny also wins this match-up: When Youhzny is in his hitting rhythm (As he is now) slice backhand to slice backhand rallies, it's he who'll come out on top. He wins the cat and mouse battles and he can contend and deal with Feliciano's chipping and charging to the net. If there's one thing Youhzny doesn't struggle with (In a good hitting rhythm) it's cat and mouse variety. Hence why we saw him trouble Murray at Wimbledon last year. Feliciano as we know has no topspin backhand, it is virtually non-existent and he only has a slice, which Feliciano cannot hurt Youhzny the way he does some others with. Youzhny will welcome/invite that backhand slice all day long and assign it as target therefore for an area to go into to help enable him to gain court advantage. (Edge in court/frontfoot position in rally) Better player on the back-foot: Mikhail is ofcourse a better mover and player when forced to play on the backfoot and defend. He has a better defense to offense transition game and can 'shot make' (Extraordinary winners) more naturally and with more easy when in a backfoot position. Why Feliciano's serve may not be as so much a factor here: Both players' can neutralise attack pretty well, but in terms of returning serve, Lopez isn't up there with the other top 30 middle ranked guys I'm afraid and I feel this will be a factor in helping Youzhny compensate for the weaker serve he does have in comparison to his opponent. Summary: Both guys like to change the pace of the ball and bide their time for that opportune moment to inject telling pace into the ball. Youhzny being able to inject pace on the backhand which Feliciano can't and play more effectively and efficiently when on the backfoot will make the crux difference here imo. He will be the one I'd favour to win rallies from the back of the court, he has that edge on Felly in that department and ultimately it will prove the decisive factor. I understand Feliciano's serve is bigger and he can get cheaper points off it, but it's not enough of an edge. Prediction: 2.4 Youhzny ML with Pinnacle or Betfair (With only view to trade if Mikhal takes first set, before potentially going back in again in decider, if one)

[CzechPunter]

Re: October 6 - October 12 Back Yulia Putintseva (+1.5 sets) to beat Samantha Stosur for a 7/10 stake at 2.56 with Pinnacle Stosur looked slightly shaky against both Eguchi and Gajdosova, so I wouldn't be surprised to see her drop a set against Putintseva, who's a better player than her current ranking suggests. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/putintseva-vs-stosur-betting-samantha-stosur-looks-worth-opposing-over-in-osaka

[CzechPunter]

Re: October 6 - October 12 Back Su-Wei Hsieh to beat Belinda Bencic for a 7/10 stake at 3.92 with Pinnacle Bencic is yet to play a serious match in Tianjin, so I believe that Hsieh might prove to be a tricky match-up for her tomorrow. She's got a slightly unconventional playing style, after all, and she's also experienced enough to exploit Bencic's weaknesses. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/hsieh-vs-bencic-betting-su-wei-hsieh-value-to-defeat-belinda-bencic-in-tianjin

[CzechPunter]

Re: October 6 - October 12 Back Gilles Simon (+1.5 sets) to beat Tomas Berdych for a 7/10 stake at 1.96 with Pinnacle Berdych certainly deserves to be the favorite in this one, but Simon has been playing decent stuff recently and he's got a good record against the Czech, so I don't believe that this is going to be a one-sided match. A set should be fully within the Frenchman's range in my opinion, so I'm happy to back him on the set handicap at 1.96. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/simon-vs-berdych-betting-the-frenchman-could-prove-to-be-a-tricky-match-up-for-berdych-on-friday

[CzechPunter]

Re: October 6 - October 12 Back D.Ferrer/N.Djokovic - Over 20 games for a 7/10 stake at 1.93 with Pinnacle Ferrer proved everyone wrong by beating Murray on Thursday despite dropping the opening set and that result does count for something in my eyes, so the 20 games line looks a touch low to me in all fairness. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/ferrer-vs-djokovic-betting-david-ferrer-can-provide-a-tough-test-for-the-world-s-number-one-in-shanghai

[shambata]

Re: October 6 - October 12 Jelena Simic to beat Sina Haas (Santa Margherita 10k) @2.1, bet365, 4/10 - WON Lao/Wong to beat Oosterhuit/O-Pizer Guarachi/Marand to beat Gabueva/Zhu Ann-Sophie Mestach to beat Gabriella Ce 3 match parlay, bet365, @1.98, 5/10 - WON Updated bankroll: +104,9 units Ayla Aksu to beat Qiu Yu Ye (Antalya 10k) @2,5 bet365 3/10 Ayla Aksu has beaten several chinese players this year, actually she is performing well against them, now she faces Qui Yu Ye. Yesterday she has beaten Stojanovic in 3 sets, and her serve was very reliable, and was capable of coming back from difficult situations. Ye's win was not so clear, she has been struggled with her serve during the match, but in the end, she packs the bag against the 15 year old Turkish youngster - who played in the earlier round. Althought Aksu is the underdog here, she playes in Turkey (homeland), so its also can be a boost for her, and also calculating with Ye's declining form. GL!

[CzechPunter]

Re: October 6 - October 12 Back Karolina Pliskova (-5) to beat Madison Brengle for a 7/10 stake at 1.85 with Pinnacle Fancy Pliskova once again, as she seems to be on fire these days. Brengle's a decent player, but she's well below the Czech in terms of overall quality and she's yet to meet a strong player in Linz, so chances are that this will be a fairly one-sided match. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/pliskova-vs-brengle-betting-karolina-pliskova-to-storm-through-to-the-semis-in-linz

[BallsforTennis]

Re: October 6 - October 12

Shanghai Masters Quarter Final - Feliciano Lopez vs Mikhail Youhzny Feliciano's style of play suits Youzhny: Feliciano's style of play is to massage the ball around the court and weave an opening to allow him to take the ball a little more on the front-foot. It's essentially point construction with the aid/use of variety and intelligent shot choice. This however is also Youzhny's style of play and imo it's a style of play he is more adept at executing. (Esp when in this hitting rhythm) Why Youhzny also wins this match-up: When Youhzny is in his hitting rhythm (As he is now) slice backhand to slice backhand rallies, it's he who'll come out on top. He wins the cat and mouse battles and he can contend and deal with Feliciano's chipping and charging to the net. If there's one thing Youhzny doesn't struggle with (In a good hitting rhythm) it's cat and mouse variety. Hence why we saw him trouble Murray at Wimbledon last year. Feliciano as we know has no topspin backhand, it is virtually non-existent and he only has a slice, which Feliciano cannot hurt Youhzny the way he does some others with. Youzhny will welcome/invite that backhand slice all day long and assign it as target therefore for an area to go into to help enable him to gain court advantage. (Edge in court/frontfoot position in rally) Better player on the back-foot: Mikhail is ofcourse a better mover and player when forced to play on the backfoot and defend. He has a better defense to offense transition game and can 'shot make' (Extraordinary winners) more naturally and with more easy when in a backfoot position. Why Feliciano's serve may not be as so much a factor here: Both players' can neutralise attack pretty well, but in terms of returning serve, Lopez isn't up there with the other top 30 middle ranked guys I'm afraid and I feel this will be a factor in helping Youzhny compensate for the weaker serve he does have in comparison to his opponent. Summary: Both guys like to change the pace of the ball and bide their time for that opportune moment to inject telling pace into the ball. Youhzny being able to inject pace on the backhand which Feliciano can't and play more effectively and efficiently when on the backfoot will make the crux difference here imo. He will be the one I'd favour to win rallies from the back of the court, he has that edge on Felly in that department and ultimately it will prove the decisive factor. I understand Feliciano's serve is bigger and he can get cheaper points off it, but it's not enough of an edge. Prediction: 2.4 Youhzny ML with Pinnacle or Betfair (With only view to trade if Mikhal takes first set, before potentially going back in again in decider, if one)

Can't really do anything if the player chokes from a set and 4-2 up, I traded after the first set, hope whoever followed (If any), did also too.

[cornelinho]

Re: October 6 - October 12 this Youzhny is an absolute specimen sometimes, really! Cannot believe what he has done in this match

[shambata]

Re: October 6 - October 12 You/Ye to beat Sun/Zhang (Antalya 10k WD) @1.33 Sanaz Marand to beat Despina Papamichail (Rock Hill 25k) @1.5 You/Ye again here. Last week same opponent thy had 61 51, from there 61 63 easy win. Ye in even better form, You must be rested, she is out of singles since 2 days now. I dont see a different outcome here. Marand in scorching form, so is Papamichail, but I think Marand just one level over the young greek. I have watched Marand play not so long ago and I was tipping her to win the tournament here, so I'm sticking to it. Nice double! GL 2 match parlay, bet365, @2.00, 5/10 You/Ye to beat Sun/Zhang (Antalya 10k WD) @1.33 CiCi Bellis to beat Chanel Simmonds (Rock Hill 25k), @1.57 Im ridking to put You/Ye chinese magic into both of these bets. I have not lost yet with them and not planning to do so today. Cartan Bellis is proving to be ht ebest junior in the world as she fought off Katerina Stewart last round, I really believe this was a great effort for her confidence. But the reason Im betting on this game is Chanel Simmonds's form and the fact that right now she does not belong here, she is only in the QF bc the 2nd seed has retired. I have lot of confidence in both Rock Hill picks. GL 2 match parlay, bet365, @2.09, 5/10 Patricia Maria Tig to beat Mariana Duque Marino (Monterrey 50k) @2.10, bet365, 5/10 I have not jumped on Tig after she has destroyed the tired but red hot Bondarenko in the qualis. After that she took care in very easy straight sets Pella and Rus, the latter who I rate higher than Duque Marino on hard court. The odds are nothing special, but we are facing an upcoming red hot romanian and I will take this now as well. Duque Marino has not impressed me yet on this surface. GL!

[CzechPunter]

Re: October 6 - October 12 Back Gilles Simon to beat Feliciano Lopez for a 7/10 stake at 1.72 with Ladbrokes Lopez has been lucky in virtually every single round so far, but I expect Simon to take no prisoners. He'll pose Lopez the same problems Youzhny did, but he's not very likely to self-destruct like the Russian did, so I expect him to get the job done in the end. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/simon-vs-lopez-betting-gilles-simon-can-make-it-through-to-the-finals-in-shanghai Back Novak Djokovic (-3.5) to beat Roger Federer for a 7/10 stake at 1.94 with Pinnacle There's no stopping Novak Djokovic in Shanghai this year by the looks of things and the conditions aren't quick enough for Federer to get something to build on, so chances are that we're going to see yet another decent win for the world's number one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/djokovic-vs-federer-betting-there-s-no-stopping-novak-djokovic-in-shanghai-this-year Back Luksika Kumkhum (+1.5 sets) to beat Zarina Diyas for a 7/10 stake at 1.85 with Pinnacle Kumkhum has a good record against Diyas, who faced plenty of problems against Konjuh on Friday, so I am not sure what this favoritism is all about. Diyas does deserve to be the favorite, but not such a big one, so I'm happy to go against her on the set handicap. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/kumkhum-vs-diyas-betting-luksika-kumkhum-might-be-able-to-steal-a-set-off-zarina-diyas-in-osaka

[pastore]

Re: October 6 - October 12 Very interesting game, papamichail comeback from 6:1 3:0. she breaks 7 of last 9 games of Marand serve. i wish i had covered as 2:1 after 1st set but i did not :)

[shambata]

Re: October 6 - October 12 yesterday recap: Ayla Aksu to beat Qiu Yu Ye (Antalya 10k) @2,5 >bet365 3/10 LOST -3u,Aksu was leading and had game points, in every game but one, in the first set! i was following live, she made 1/10 break points, whenever you dont take your chances like this, seconds set can go to garbage then, just like it did. Its hard to process not using your chances.... You/Ye to beat Sun/Zhang (Antalya 10k WD) @1.33 void Sanaz Marand to beat Despina Papamichail (Rock Hill 25k) @1.5 LOST -5u The truth is that when someones leading 61 30 and you dont cash out when you see the tide coming back, 32 I cashed out I had too many of these burn down.... Something must have happened and I still believe Papamichail does NOT belong here yet.... You/Ye to beat Sun/Zhang (Antalya 10k WD) @1.33 void CiCi Bellis to beat Chanel Simmonds (Rock Hill 25k), @1.57 WON +2.85u Down 14 in the first set, CiCi came back and took care of business like she should Patricia Maria Tig to beat Mariana Duque Marino (Monterrey 50k) @2.10, >bet365, 5/10u, WON +5u Tig took care of biz. Straight sets. Looking for more from her, I was on the 2-0 as well seeing the scorelines from earlier. wow. yesterday could have been a hell of a lot better, but we missed the healthy profit with marand burning down the house (if you cashed out on time, yuo did make profit) and yu/ye getting void. We will take a bad day coming out -0.15u for yesterday!

[shambata]

Re: October 6 - October 12 updated bankroll: 104,75u Qui Yu Ye to beat Katerina Kramperova (Antalya 10k) @ 1.72, bet365, 4/10 Ye is having a career week, I think. I followed all the matches and Im not 100% convinced that she has won because she was playing that well, but the opponents couldnt use their chances (cengiz, aksu) but in the first round she did have a nice win over Negreanu in straight sets. Kramperova had a tough week here and I think she will fold against Ye. Line opened at 2.1 now its 1.72. I don't see value in this bet, I just have a hunch that Ye has enough now to beat her. Whenever line should be 2.5 imo, looking at stats and results and line is this different, I like to bet on it. GL! CiCi Bellis to beat Despina Papamichail (Rock Hill 25k) @1.36, bet365 Veronika Kudermetova to beat Dzalamidze (WTA Moscow Q) @1.57, bet365 doubles @2.13, bet365, 5/10 Ok, so looking at the doubles score of Papamichail/Toljan again Guarachi/Marand, 0,4, I dont think Marand was healthy when she lost from 61 30 yesterday. I still dont think Papamichail belongs here and Bellis should have enough confidence to send her packing. Kudermetova playing indoors hard court, very very good junior who is capable of a big run now. WTA q is a nice opportunity to show how good you are, she has showed many times, I think she steps up in this tournament again. First round opponent is decent but nothing special imo. Revenge factor for the Kud is on, from this year february match where she had to retire against Dzalamidze!! GL Alexandra Nancarrow to beat Claudia Giovine (Santa Margherita 10k) @2.25, bet365, 4/10 Nancarrow's form this week and the plus money convinced me to bet on this game. (toughest set was 64) Giovine is better on hard court. This bet is also a hunch bet, so go easy. I think Nancarrow will have too much for Giovine here and might risk a unit on the 2-0 win also. GL Nina Zander to beat Lauren Embree (Rock Hill 25k) @2.20, bet365, 6/10 Nina Zander beat Fichman yesterday and I followed, it was pretty impressive. Zander was leading the first set big time, Fichman came back but Zander still was able to stop her and finish the firs set. Second set was possible comeback for Fichman, but Zander came back and showed strength again. That says she has a lot of confidence, really. Not to mention the first 2 rounds, anialating the opponents 1,0 both times. I know Embree is not bad and I also know she had a looong and tiring match yesterday, that could be a factor. I think the line should be 1.83 and Zander showed me enpugh strength both sets for me to bet on her. Papamichail is a fluke in this tournament, Zander is the real deal surprise, just like Tig in Monterrey! GL You/Ye doubles final today. I will look at odds and also the match vs Kramperova before I will bet on You/Ye again. But they did beat yesterday to very good players, where I did not think they can win. i will post it as well if I do. Also will be looking at Tig against Lino. No odds as of yet.

[shambata]

Re: October 6 - October 12 Patricia Maria Tig to beat Lourdes Dominguez Lino (Monterrey 50k) @2.62, bet365, 5/10 Tig can follow her success story. Lino had problems against Kolar yesterday, winning only in 3 sets. A true clay court player, she is performing surprisingly well here. Well I guess Tig has not lost a set yet and has beaten Lino's caliber here 3 times this tournaments already (Rus, Bodnarenko, Duque Marino) so Im guessing 2.62 must be value here! GL, get it early. This will go down to a pick 'em before match more than likely.

[CzechPunter]

Re: October 6 - October 12 Back Gilles Simon (+1.5 sets) to beat Roger Federer for a 7/10 stake at 1.98 with Unibet Both guys have been playing well so far in Shanghai, so I expect to see a really good match on Sunday - and Simon, who actually has a pretty decent record against the Swiss number one, will have every chance to do well in my opinion. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/simon-vs-federer-betting-gilles-simon-has-what-it-takes-to-win-a-set-in-the-shanghai-finals Back Samantha Stosur (-4) to beat Zarina Diyas for a 7/10 stake at 1.92 with Pinnacle Can't see past Stosur here, she's much better than Diyas and she's already won this event twice, so nerves shouldn't affect her that much really. Diyas is still a relative newcomer when it comes to these bigger matches, so chances are that she won't be able to put up much resistance tomorrow. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/stosur-vs-diyas-betting-samantha-stosur-to-capture-the-osaka-title-in-style-on-sunday

[MisterBadham]

Re: October 6 - October 12 Daniel Brands v Fucsovic ... Any views? I'm thinking Fuscovics as brands could struggle to keep up fitness wise?