Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August

[Darran]

[TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 22 August 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Aldershot Town v Forest Green Rovers (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.75 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 23 August 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Alfreton Town v Wrexham (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]98.86 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Bristol Rovers v AFC Telford United (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.7 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.95 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.9 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.09 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Chester FC v FC Halifax Town (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.80 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Dartford v Torquay United (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.65 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.63 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Dover Athletic v Eastleigh (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.75 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.16 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.74 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Gateshead v Grimsby Town (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.05 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.65 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.3 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.43 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Lincoln City v Braintree Town (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.06 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.13 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Macclesfield Town v Kidderminster Harriers (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.1 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.52 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.51 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Nuneaton Town v Barnet (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.25 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.59 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Southport v Altrincham FC (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.52 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.59 % [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Welling United v Woking (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.49 % [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Darran]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August Alfreton v Wrexham The home side have disappointed me so far this season and they are currently bottom of the table. They did however show a bit more promise against Forest Green Rovers last weekend and with a week to have worked on things I am expecting more improvement on Saturday. They look value against a Wrexham side who may have won two games, but haven’t looked anything special in doing so. They manager expects them to improve and they probably will, but I think Alfreton are better than they have shown so far this season and at 11/5 (BetVictor and Paddy Power) they are worth taking a chance with. Dover v Eastleigh Dover have found things tough since gaining promotion last season. On the face of it a point at Grimsby is a good one and but for a missed penalty they would have had all three. The thing is Grimsby aren’t really firing at the moment and as predicted in my ante-post piece, they have found goals very hard to come by. Eastleigh didn’t impress on TV against Aldershot last week, but they were much better against Gateshead and they have the forward line to punish Dover, which Grimsby are lacking at the moment. I think they should be odds on so the 23/20 William Hill are going is a spot of value. Nuneaton v Barnet Barnet let us down pretty badly last week and that performance came out of nowhere given how good they looked in their first two games. I expect them to bounce back on Saturday against a Nuneaton side who are struggling just as much as I thought they would. Again I think Barnet should be odds on chances so Coral’s 5/4 looks decent. Welling v Woking I think Welling are the worse side in the Vanarama Conference at the moment. They may have got a point, but that was against nine-men AFC Telford. Torquay and Halifax have beaten them 3-0 since then and I expect they may be waiting a while longer before getting anymore points on the board. Woking have had a very solid start to the season and I would be disappointed if they didn’t have enough to beat Welling. Coral again are biggest at 11/8

[Darran]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August My Nap's this weekend are in the other thread. I am away from tomorrow until Sunday night and I am not expecting to be around so can't answer any question's anyone has for this weekend's games. That also means my tips will be up late for Monday's matches but I am hopeful I can post something at some stage and one of the other mods will be creating the threads for the rest of you to put your tips in.

[Gamblergb]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August Great work Addpea ! Im totally agree with Alfreton , they have a lot to show , and I think, on paper, they are the better side

[isajesus123]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August is it right? Alfreton Eastleigh Barnet Woking thanks for the choices.

[jack1712]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August Dover v Eastleigh Eastleigh win @ 2.16Dover got an excellent point away against a weak Grimsby side, but I can't see them getting anything from this game. Last season, Dover's home form was atrocious and their summer signings haven't convinced me that things will change this season. Eastleigh, on the other hand have look strong and have made some impressive signings this summer. I can't see past a convincing Eastleigh win. I can see a 2 or 3-0 win for Eastleigh Nuneaton v Barnet Barnet win @ 2.25 Nuneaton are a team I expected to go down without much of a fight this season, and their first 3 games haven't convinced me otherwise. Barnet played extremely well in their first two matches and were unlucky not to get anything from the Lincoln game. Barnet will simply have too much for Nuneaton and at 2.25, they look like value to me

[Darran]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August

is it right? Alfreton Eastleigh Barnet Woking thanks for the choices.

Yes that's correct and there are 3 more tips on the other thread. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

[isajesus123]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August

Yes that's correct and there are 3 more tips on the other thread. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

Thanks addpea, Especially Alfreton , i think the will win easily. i can not see any tips on the other threat.

[Darran]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August In the south and North section. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

[YorkshireFootyFan]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August [TABLE=width: 395]

[TR] [TD=align: right]22/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Aldershot[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.41[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.46[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.30[/TD] [TD]Forest Green[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Alfreton[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.50[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.45[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.16[/TD] [TD]Wrexham[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Bristol Rovers[/TD] [TD]XXX[/TD] [TD]XXX[/TD] [TD]XXX[/TD] [TD]Telford[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Chester[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.56[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.49[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.28[/TD] [TD]Halifax[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Dartford[/TD] [TD]XXX[/TD] [TD]XXX[/TD] [TD]XXX[/TD] [TD]Torquay[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Dover[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.00[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.74[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.86[/TD] [TD]Eastleigh[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Gateshead[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.99[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.44[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.63[/TD] [TD]Grimsby[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Lincoln[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.16[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.45[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.50[/TD] [TD]Braintree[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Macclesfield[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.30[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.49[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.51[/TD] [TD]Kidderminster[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Nuneaton[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.45[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.48[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.33[/TD] [TD]Barnet[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Southport[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.24[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.51[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.64[/TD] [TD]Altrincham[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Welling[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.26[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.46[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.44[/TD] [TD]Woking[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] As mentioned in last week's thread my prices for this weekend. I'd take Aldershot at Draw No Bet tonight and concur with Addpea on Alfreton and Eastleigh representing value. I'm tempted by Grimsby, Braintree and Macclesfield but will play safe and omit them.

[SteveD53]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August Gateshead v Grimsby 2.05 at bet365. A repeat of last season's play off semi-final 2nd leg which Gateshead won 3-1. Both teams seem to be carrying over their form with knobs on. Gateshead's only loss since March 8th was to Cambridge in the play-off final. They've scored 8 times in 3 games so far, winning two and getting a draw away last week at fellow high-fliers, Eastleigh. Grimsby's wins dried up towards the end of last season as did their goals. They've managed 3 draws so far, scoring only once against teams who look likely to finish in the bottom half of the table.

[jack1712]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August

I'm tempted by Grimsby' date=' Braintree and Macclesfield but will play safe and omit them.[/quote'] I wouldn't even consider putting my money on Grimsby. 3 points from 3 games, 2 of which were at home against relegation fodder. I understand they have injuries and not sure how many of them will be back for tomorrow. Gateshead have scored 8 goals so far from 3 games and have only conceded 3. Grimsby have scored 1 goal in 3 matches - I can't see where they're goals will come from. Gateshead at over evens is tempting me, but I'll probably leave that match alone

[ricay85]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August The 11/8 for the Cards at Welling seems about right. I feel they will be too good and man for man have much the better squad. Rendell could have a field day. -1 H'Cap Wokng are 4/1 and i will have a shilling on that as well.

[Claugol]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August Anybody on Bristol? I know they were tipped to be on of the main favorites to promote this season but they have only 1 point in 3 games (same as Telford). Is it time for the first win of Bristol?

[bartonbank]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August

Great work Addpea ! Im totally agree with Alfreton , they have a lot to show , and I think, on paper, they are the better side

Then read a different paper! Let's get things into perspective on the Alfreton - Wrexham game. On paper, in the table, on the pitch they are not a better side than Wrexham at the moment. That is not to say that Wrexham are the finished article either (we are missing Keates in midfield without a doubt) but, according to addpea, Alfreton will have improved over the week, having worked on their problems. Apparently that doesn't apply to Wrexham for, if it did, logic would dictate that they would also work on their faults over the same week. What haven't Wrexham been good at so far? Well, the midfield is getting used to a different style of play and, rather than trying to control the game, we are playing more on the break. The defence has been slightly sus under set pieces but, all in all, we deserved the win at Dartford and should have put more past Nuneaton. In between that we lost 3-0 at home to Gateshead, a game in which we had two cleared off the line and also conceded two goals after a sub changed the shape and we were at 6s and 7s. Alfreton do not pose the threat of Gateshead (they haven't scored since the 14th minute of the first game) and have a manager banned from the touchline. They concede goals and we are creating chances (Durrell missed two sitters against Nuneaton). Alfreton may be a big price but, frankly, on what they have shown this season they are about right.

[bartonbank]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August

[TABLE=width: 395] [TR] [TD=align: right]22/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Aldershot[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.41[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.46[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.30[/TD] [TD]Forest Green[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Alfreton[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.50[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.45[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.16[/TD] [TD]Wrexham[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Bristol Rovers[/TD] [TD]XXX[/TD] [TD]XXX[/TD] [TD]XXX[/TD] [TD]Telford[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Chester[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.56[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.49[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.28[/TD] [TD]Halifax[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Dartford[/TD] [TD]XXX[/TD] [TD]XXX[/TD] [TD]XXX[/TD] [TD]Torquay[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Dover[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.00[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.74[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.86[/TD] [TD]Eastleigh[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Gateshead[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.99[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.44[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.63[/TD] [TD]Grimsby[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Lincoln[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.16[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.45[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.50[/TD] [TD]Braintree[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Macclesfield[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.30[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.49[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.51[/TD] [TD]Kidderminster[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Nuneaton[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.45[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.48[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.33[/TD] [TD]Barnet[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Southport[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.24[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.51[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.64[/TD] [TD]Altrincham[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]23/08/2014[/TD] [TD]Welling[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.26[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.46[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.44[/TD] [TD]Woking[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] As mentioned in last week's thread my prices for this weekend. I'd take Aldershot at Draw No Bet tonight and concur with Addpea on Alfreton and Eastleigh representing value. I'm tempted by Grimsby, Braintree and Macclesfield but will play safe and omit them.

A serious question here...how, in your tissue, have you got Grimsby as favourites over Gateshead??

[Darran]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August Before the season started I thought Alfreton had a top half side and at the moment I obviously still hope they will be. All I have read about Wrexham's performances haven't been great and let's face it Dartford and Nuneaton aren't strong teams. Obviously scope for Wrexham to improve as well but in my view the prices are wrong as I don't think there is much between them. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

[Darran]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August Should add it's great to see plenty of tips and discussion on here. Hopefully it will be a profitable weekend. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

[chelt_gas]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August

Anybody on Bristol? I know they were tipped to be on of the main favorites to promote this season but they have only 1 point in 3 games (same as Telford). Is it time for the first win of Bristol?

Rovers are playing terribly and the team perception is far greater than the team ability. Darryl Clarke is a manager who is not up to the job, has tinkered with every selection and tactic and now has the majority of fans wanting him to step aside. Based on form in both pre-season (no wins) and from the last three matches, and considering the absence of their better player Sinclair following a red card v Altrincham, I'd not be backing them heavily. However, we have the majority of the defence and keeper from our league two team (which got relegated due to lack of goals and not the strong defence) so I'd always be cautious backing against them. Goals are the issue, the strikers are woeful, and the midfield are a team full of pass-sideways merchants. Leave Rovers unless you want a funbet.

[Claugol]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August Thanks for your input. Much appreciating...I will skip the bet

[YorkshireFootyFan]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August The tissue is produced by mathematical formula, and takes into account form over a period of time, so an impressive/poor start to the season won't be given too much creedance at this stage.

[senk]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August Many punters obviously look at teams in form at the start of the season but there is absolutely no way all these teams keep on winning. It's often a big gamble which of the teams keep performing on a high level and which don't. I personally find that the hardest part of betting at the start of a new season, picking the right bets. 2 or 3 games often do not reflect the current situation clearly, some might easily rise above their expactations for a couple of weeks but fail hard later while we all jumped on it. I also really like the look of Eastleigh given current form, H2H and the fact that Dover is conceding on a regular basis but I'm a bit worried for bets when we all agree. :-) But I do believe this thread is one of the best cause of the fact we have some locals here who watch the games live. That's a crucial factor for me when chasing a bet. Anyways, hope we have a profitable weekend and lady luck is on our side for a while. Goodluck guys!

[Darran]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August Bristol rovers beat Gloucester City in a pre season game so they won at least one. With rovers signing Adam cunnington they do feature strikers who are proven scorers at this level, having said that I am not ready to back them just yet. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

[bartonbank]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August .

[bartonbank]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August

The tissue is produced by mathematical formula' date=' and takes into account form over a period of time, so an impressive/poor start to the season won't be given too much creedance at this stage.[/quote'] That must mean that more credence must be given to last season's form than a team's start to the season then?

[senk]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August Nope, It's just the unreliability we have to deal with I guess. Maybe the teams who almost kept the same squad as last year and did well in the end can be reliable at start cause not much changed but still, I saw it so many times at early stages. That's why watching games live is so important. I just think the variance in results and team performances is bigger in lower leagues than in the top leagues. The difference in class is often smaller in these leagues also squad sizes matter ofcourse. That's one of the reasons why we get higher odds for a favorite to win than in top leagues cause of the unpredictability factor being bigger. On the other hand the conference is by far my most profitable english league when it comes to betting. Mainly cause many here deliver some outstanding previews every week. Inside info you rarely see in higher league threads.

[YorkshireFootyFan]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August It's a complete picture, three games clearly isn't the whole story. The thing is these aren't claiming to be 100% perfect, they are a guide, they save me time and pinpoint games to concentrate on. They also work differently to the way the majority of punters do, giving them a chance of highlighting value. All mathematically calculated odds will have flaws, but the key is to know the flaws when weighing things up.

[Darran]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August Not a great day for me with just two winning bets from 7 across the threads. Yff was spot on with making Grimsby favs although no idea how they managed to win 6-1. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

[SteveD53]

Re: Vanarama Conference 22nd/23rd August

Not a great day for me with just two winning bets from 7 across the threads. Yff was spot on with making Grimsby favs although no idea how they managed to win 6-1. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

Utterly ridiculous result, given their recent form and the fact that Gateshead haven't lost since the start of March. Credit to YFF for some impossible number crunching! And Eastleigh losing to ten-man Dover :cry Three of my five tips across the leagues lost, one win and a draw. As bad a weekend as I can remember. Pocket money only for a while till something like form becomes apparent