a simple system for winning on away draws

[neilovan]

The first step in this process is to identify teams that make strong draw candidates. What characteristics must such a team possess ...? They have to be competitive and hard to beat. This is both a mental and physical state. These sorts of teams do not roll over and die when they concede a goal. They are also not really able to finish teams off when they go ahead I prefer to look at draw teams that are away from home..... These types of teams also need to show a history of draws in previous seasons. Lets look at some DRAWN game numbers The EPL has the lowest percentage of 0-0 1-1 and 2-2 draws (18%) French Ligue 1 has the highest percentage at (27%) Yet in the EPL we find the perfect candidate for away draws. Assume you are backing the away draw every week in 2014/2015 with a 1 unit bet Historically ...... 2013/2014 Everton 6 away draws at an average price of 2.55 to 1 You win 15.3 and lose 13 for 2.3 unit gain (12% ROI ). 2012/2013 Everton 9 away draws at an average price of 2.53 to 1 You win 22.7 and lose 10 for 12.77 unit gain (67% ROI ). 2011/2012 Everton 8 away draws at an average price of 2.56 to 1 You win 20.48 and lose 11 for 9.48 unit gain (49% ROI ). 2010/2011 Everton 8 away draws at an average price of 2.45 to 1 You win 19.6 and lose 11 for 8.6 unit gain (45% ROI ). These numbers are all freely available here (I just post the link for easy access to page http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/average-away-win-odds ) For you to win, the break even point is probably 5.5 :\ away draws by Everton. At odds of 2.55 to 1 , 5 draws wins you 12.75 units while you lose 14 units With Everton in away draws, one more piece of knowledge can be used. Looking at the TOP 8 versus TOP 8 stats it's reasonable to assume that they will lose to the league winners away. In 2013/2014 they lost 3-1 to Man City In 2012/2013 they lost 2-0 to Man United In 2011/2012 they lost 2-0 to Man City In 2010/2011 they lost 1-0 to Man United. So , on past track record you can avoid these games. It means you back Everton for the draw every week away for 17 or 18 games. You exclude the 1 or 2 games against the leagues best 2 teams ( for 2014/2015 Chelsea and Man City) So you are risking 17 or 18 units for the away season. Taking this even one step further you can remove Everton's away games against the bottom one or two teams from this system. In 2013/2014 they beat Fulham (1-3) In 2012/2013 they beat West Ham (1-2) In 2011/2012 they beat Bolton (0-2) and Blackburn (0-1) In 2010/2011 they beat Wolves(0-3) and Birmingham(0-2) So you are risking 16 to 17 units for the away season. Doing this over the last 4 seasons would have given you a BETTER than 43% average ROI for 4 years straight !!! Everton are not the only PERFECT DRAW candidates for betting. I will find another 2 or 3 more perfect candidates before the season start., and will post them here as well.

[Grex]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws Interesting approach, Neil. My main concern is that your analysis for Everton is based on a VERY small sample (4 seasons). I think you have to delve a lot deeper (e.g. 10 seasons) to demonstrate that it is unlikely to be just a statistical "blip"..... and then the logic behind the anomaly should be identified.... as you suggested - "They have to be competitive and hard to beat. This is both a mental and physical state. These sorts of teams do not roll over and die when they concede a goal. They are also not really able to finish teams off when they go ahead......" The problem is that these sort of criteria are not easy to evaluate statistically.... there is a lot of subjectivity involved. Not trying to be negative, just..... boring (as usual) :\. Good luck anyway :ok

[uknowsit]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws Data mining I'm afraid. Back fashioning to suit the agenda. What will Everton of 2015 have in common with Everton of 2010? Not much I'm afraid.

[uknowsit]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws Nice analysis thou

[Xtc12]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws

How are you going to pick out the league winners? Going back five seasons the bottom team has drawn 30.27 % of its matches, should they be left out. Looking forward to see who else you come up with, very interested in this. Yes it is a simple system and yes it may work :hope.

[neilovan]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws

Data mining I'm afraid. Back fashioning to suit the agenda. What will Everton of 2015 have in common with Everton of 2010? Not much I'm afraid

I'm not sure. If you would take this basic strategy and and combine it with an average goals per game analysis ie. last 5 home game goal averages with Everton's last 5 away averages, it could be a winner. Look every bet made going forward is based on the knowledge that we have now. Could that 'knowledge' be classified as 'data-mined' ?

[lawalahmed]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws English Premier League : 10 Years All Time Table Home ### Away P W D L F A W D L F A GD Pt 1 Everton 342 93 43 35 285 171 53 61 57 188 197 +105 542 2 Aston Villa 342 61 56 54 221 194 49 57 65 212 282 -43 443 Positive Angle = Everton at away only = Aston Villa both home and away English Premier League : 5 Years All Time Table 1 Everton 152 44 19 13 130 74 21 31 24 87 90 +53 245 2 Aston Villa 152 23 22 31 91 101 16 26 34 80 141 -71 165 3 Stoke City 152 34 25 17 104 77 12 20 44 57 121 -37 183 Positive Angle = Everton at away only = Aston Villa both home and away = Stoke City at Home Only

[neilovan]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws Did a little more research and came up with these candidates Basically these teams had this number of DRAWS in their last 4 seasons Home Draw teams Rennes 27 Lorient 27 Hibernian 27 Bordeaux 26 Stoke 25 Away Draw teams Bordeaux 32 Everton 31 Lille 29 Aston Villa 26 St Etienne 26 I am assuming that PSG will win the French League, with Monaco second. The away games for Bordeaux, Lille and St Etienne against those 2 opponents will be excluded. I am not crazy about Aston Villa for anything. Lambert has put out a very mixed product, that is completely inconsistent. Thus excluding them from all activity. How much longer will this 'playing youngsters' and getting nowhere system fly ? Three promoted teams in France this year are league 2 winners Metz, Lens and Caen. Metz were miles ahead of the other two, who probably will struggle in Ligue 1. Thus the away games against Caen and Lens will be excluded. SO Everton, Bordeaux, St Etienne, Lille are the away candidates. I am happy with the three French teams, as they are in the league that produces the most 0-0, 1-1, and 2-2 draws in major league European Football. Everton's games against Chelsea and Man City away excluded (in my opinion 1 and 2 in the league this season) I think all of Burnley, QPR and Leicester will be a tough nut for Everton and will be included. SO Everton 17 away games in tot. In France, all games against Monaco and PSG are excluded as well as those against Lens and Caen. So thats 15 games for each contestant (Bordeaux, St Etienne, Lille). 45 French games and 17 EPL games makes 62 potential match-ups. If you take average away odds of 2.275 to 1 (convert into probability by adding 1 and then dividing 1 by this number) you get 1 / 3.275 = 30%. SO we need more than 30% of these 62 match ups to be draws to win money. 19 winners at average odds of 2.275 is 43.225. We would lose 43 units on the 43 games that were not draws. So 19-20 depending on slight odds differences, would be our break even point. So the target is 19 DRAWS , and the total outlay is 62 units. 24 draws of these 62 games would be excellent and would give a ROI of 26% or so

[lawalahmed]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws Hope this can help ur project... PAOK Salonika......"Greece".......43 draw in last 137 away matches (7 season) Chievo......."Italy"............51 draw in the last 152 Home matches (8 seasons) Ried........."Austria"............52 draw in the last 162 away matches (9 seasons) Basel.........Switzerland..........50 draw in the last 161 away matches ( 9 season)

[neilovan]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws

Hope this can help ur project... PAOK Salonika......"Greece".......43 draw in last 137 away matches (7 season) Chievo......."Italy"............51 draw in the last 152 Home matches (8 seasons) Ried........."Austria"............52 draw in the last 162 away matches (9 seasons) Basel.........Switzerland..........50 draw in the last 161 away matches ( 9 season)

Many thanks for those additional teams. My feeling is that you can't go too far back in time . After about 5 seasons everything is different. Playing styles , players, managers etc etc, and all the opposition relative strengths have changed as well. I have written over/under 2.5 goal prediction software and have tried many different approaches. The only time I found it useful to go back 6-8 years, was to prove that the match-selection criteria actually worked. I am going to add two more teams to the system. 1st one is DUndee United in the Scottish PL . They have 27 away draws in 72/73 away games. Their away games against promoted Alloa will be excluded as well as their games against league winners CELTIC (what a surprise :rollin). So that leaves 15 games with Dundee United and 62 previous games for 77 in total. The second one is CAGLIARI in Italy , with 26 away draws in their last 4 seasons. I will exclude Juventus (expected champions) and Empoli , Cesana (lesser promoted teams, serie B winners Palermo are included) SO in summary 16 away games for CAGLIARI (( exclude Juventus, Empoli and Cesana) 15 away games for DUNDEE UNITED ( exclude Celtic x 2 , Alloa x 2) 15 away games for BORDEAUX ( exclude Monaco , PSG , Lens and Caen) 15 away games for LILLE ( exclude Monaco , PSG , Lens and Caen) 15 away games for ST ETIENNE ( exclude Monaco , PSG , Lens and Caen) 17 away games for EVERTON (exclude Man CIty, Chelsea) 93 games at average odds of 2.275 to 1 means the break-even is 28 DRAWS

[lawalahmed]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws

Many thanks for those additional teams. My feeling is that you can't go too far back in time . After about 5 seasons everything is different. Playing styles , players, managers etc etc, and all the opposition relative strengths have changed as well. I have written over/under 2.5 goal prediction software and have tried many different approaches. The only time I found it useful to go back 6-8 years, was to prove that the match-selection criteria actually worked. I am going to add two more teams to the system. 1st one is DUndee United in the Scottish PL . They have 27 away draws in 72/73 away games. Their away games against promoted Alloa will be excluded as well as their games against league winners CELTIC (what a surprise :rollin). So that leaves 15 games with Dundee United and 62 previous games for 77 in total. The second one is CAGLIARI in Italy , with 26 away draws in their last 4 seasons. I will exclude Juventus (expected champions) and Empoli , Cesana (lesser promoted teams, serie B winners Palermo are included) SO in summary 16 away games for CAGLIARI (( exclude Juventus, Empoli and Cesana) 15 away games for DUNDEE UNITED ( exclude Celtic x 2 , Alloa x 2) 15 away games for BORDEAUX ( exclude Monaco , PSG , Lens and Caen) 15 away games for LILLE ( exclude Monaco , PSG , Lens and Caen) 15 away games for ST ETIENNE ( exclude Monaco , PSG , Lens and Caen) 17 away games for EVERTON (exclude Man CIty, Chelsea) 93 games at average odds of 2.275 to 1 means the break-even is 28 DRAWS

No problem, i also check them in the last few years as well which worked perfectly well

[Galats]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws Good job neilovan. Lawalahmed; which site do you use for stats?

[neilovan]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws

Good job neilovan. Lawalahmed; which site do you use for stats?

Hi there, I use my own site (I combined both into one, that are linked in my signature). I like to be able to see all the teams for the major leagues with one click, in one place. ie. a program like http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/football-form-guide shows you straight away that 4 teams , Genk, Juventus , Rayo Vallecano and Sivissapor were the 4 teams that had no home draws last season. These would be stinkers for home draws this season However this system is pretty simple. You could take it a few steps further by including more teams... 1) say those with 24 or more away or home draws in the last 4 seasons 2) Look at those teams with low goals for/against numbers 3) Look at past recent draw history. ie a matchup where 2 teams have a combined 5 draws or more in 5 home and 5 away games I will post the games that satisfy the system every week and we'll see how we go

[lawalahmed]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws @Neilovan, So what is ur view about PAOK Salonika that had 21 draw in the last 62 away games (4 seasons)

[neilovan]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws

@Neilovan, So what is ur view about PAOK Salonika that had 21 draw in the last 62 away games (4 seasons)

I am not crazy about that league for draws. I like the French Ligue 1 and Italian serie A as being solid draw leagues. If I am departing from those leagues I want to be backing a a very strong draw candidate. I would stay away from backing draws in the Bundesliga and in Holland. One league I need to investigate more is Portugal Supaliga. If you remove Benfica, Porto and probably Estoril from the equation, there is not much between the rest of the league.

[neilovan]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws SO the French League and Scottish Premier are kicking off this weekend. Our four candidates here are Bordeaux, Lille, St Etienne and Dundee United. Montpellier v Bordeaux draw looks a decent prospect. H2H they don't produce goals in this fixture. 5 of the last 6 finishing 1 goal, with only 1 draw in 6 meetings. But both teams are massive under 2. 5 goal candidates, and that suggests a tight game, possibly 1-1 draw ? Guingamp v St Etienne Not much to go on here. Early season games are tough. Last seasons meeting finished 0-0. Guingamp not scoring many, with just 8 home goals in their last 13 games. St Etienne finished last season banging in away goals.... Aberdeen v Dundee United Fixture produced just 3 goals in 2 games last season (1-1,1-0) suggesting a close game . Aberdeen not conceding more than 1 goal in their last 11 home games. 1-1 could be a decent prospect here Everton and Cagliari not in action yet.

[WickedWillie]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws @Neilovan: A nice analysis for betting on away draws. Personally I am not a fan on betting on away draws in the PL. I agree with you on staying away from the away draws from Holland. From the last 14 seasons, the Eredivisie averages 22% draw results. Again looking at the last 14 seasons only 2 teams might qualify for betting on away draws, that's Twente Enschede and NEC Nijmegen. The last team was relegated last season, which leaves Twente.

[neilovan]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws Assuming these games 16 away games for CAGLIARI (( exclude Juventus, Empoli and Cesana) 15 away games for DUNDEE UNITED ( exclude Celtic x 2 , Alloa x 2) 15 away games for BORDEAUX ( exclude Monaco , PSG , Lens and Caen) 15 away games for LILLE ( exclude Monaco , PSG , Lens and Caen) 15 away games for ST ETIENNE ( exclude Monaco , PSG , Lens and Caen) 17 away games for EVERTON (exclude Man CIty, Chelsea) 93 games at average odds of 2.275 to 1 means the break-even is 28 DRAWS If there are 93 games, and say your max losing streak was 6 games in a row ? A question... WHat would be the best way to bet on this system ?

[Torque]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws

Assuming these games 16 away games for CAGLIARI (( exclude Juventus, Empoli and Cesana) 15 away games for DUNDEE UNITED ( exclude Celtic x 2 , Alloa x 2) 15 away games for BORDEAUX ( exclude Monaco , PSG , Lens and Caen) 15 away games for LILLE ( exclude Monaco , PSG , Lens and Caen) 15 away games for ST ETIENNE ( exclude Monaco , PSG , Lens and Caen) 17 away games for EVERTON (exclude Man CIty, Chelsea) 93 games at average odds of 2.275 to 1 means the break-even is 28 DRAWS If there are 93 games, and say your max losing streak was 6 games in a row ? A question... WHat would be the best way to bet on this system ?

If you know the size of your edge, then a staking system based on Kelly should give the best return. If you don't, then I would say level staking is the way to go.

[Zemside]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws Everton did not draw in their last eight away games last season(no filters) So how I would play these six teams is to scramble them into say three columns. As the fixtures are scheduled I would place them next in line in each column, same as you would deal a deck of cards to three people. Would then increase my bet ,for a one unit win up to say, a six game loss,that is in each column.Probably stopping end of March. Would be strenuous to see how this went last season:eek

[neilovan]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws

SO the French League and Scottish Premier are kicking off this weekend. Our four candidates here are Bordeaux, Lille, St Etienne and Dundee United. Montpellier v Bordeaux draw looks a decent prospect. H2H they don't produce goals in this fixture. 5 of the last 6 finishing 1 goal, with only 1 draw in 6 meetings. But both teams are massive under 2. 5 goal candidates, and that suggests a tight game, possibly 1-1 draw ? Guingamp v St Etienne Not much to go on here. Early season games are tough. Last seasons meeting finished 0-0. Guingamp not scoring many, with just 8 home goals in their last 13 games. St Etienne finished last season banging in away goals.... Aberdeen v Dundee United Fixture produced just 3 goals in 2 games last season (1-1,1-0) suggesting a close game . Aberdeen not conceding more than 1 goal in their last 11 home games. 1-1 could be a decent prospect here Everton and Cagliari not in action yet.

Guingamp 0-2 St Etienne Montpellier 0-1 Bordeaux Both games close, 0-1 until the 91st minute. Montpellier with 1 shot on goal in 85 minutes at home, while ST Etienne score twice with just 2 shots on target. Scorecard 0/2 2 units down.

[neilovan]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws

Aberdeen v Dundee United Fixture produced just 3 goals in 2 games last season (1-1,1-0) suggesting a close game . Aberdeen not conceding more than 1 goal in their last 11 home games. 1-1 could be a decent prospect here

Dundee United with probably one of the most convincing away performances in Europe this weekend. Comprehensive 3-0 win away So a poor start to the campaign registering 0 of 3 so far.

[neilovan]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws Just a quick side question that would apply to any betting system If you have an over/under 2.5 or draw betting system that produces winners, and no more than 6 losers in a row season after season. Would a simple martingale system work ? Ie. 380 Premier league games and you can go 6 season's without 7 losses in a row. On a simple double up system you would still be winning approx 50 units (380 games with a win every 7 games)

[lawalahmed]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws what is the average odd of the system ?

[neilovan]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws

what is the average odd of the system ?

A resonable average would be about 1.64 or so

[Xtc12]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws

A resonable average would be about 1.64 or so

If the average odds are less than 2.0, don't think a martingale would work.

[neilovan]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws Candidates 6 away games for CAGLIARI (( exclude Juventus, Empoli and Cesana) 15 away games for DUNDEE UNITED ( exclude Celtic x 2 , Alloa x 2) 15 away games for BORDEAUX ( exclude Monaco , PSG , Lens and Caen) 15 away games for LILLE ( exclude Monaco , PSG , Lens and Caen) 15 away games for ST ETIENNE ( exclude Monaco , PSG , Lens and Caen) 17 away games for EVERTON (exclude Man CIty, Chelsea) Scorecard so far 0-3 Guingamp 0-2 St Etienne Montpellier 0-1 Bordeaux Aberdeen 0-3 Dundee United This weekend Only one game 2014-08-16 | Leicester v Everton draw odds betvictor 12/5

[neilovan]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws

Candidates 6 away games for CAGLIARI (( exclude Juventus, Empoli and Cesana) 15 away games for DUNDEE UNITED ( exclude Celtic x 2 , Alloa x 2) 15 away games for BORDEAUX ( exclude Monaco , PSG , Lens and Caen) 15 away games for LILLE ( exclude Monaco , PSG , Lens and Caen) 15 away games for ST ETIENNE ( exclude Monaco , PSG , Lens and Caen) 17 away games for EVERTON (exclude Man CIty, Chelsea) Scorecard so far 0-3 Guingamp 0-2 St Etienne Montpellier 0-1 Bordeaux Aberdeen 0-3 Dundee United This weekend Only one game 2014-08-16 | Leicester v Everton draw odds betvictor 12/5

Everton get the ball rolling with a 2-2 DRAW, will take the average odds of about 2.5 to 1 Scorecard so far 1-4 Guingamp 0-2 St Etienne Montpellier 0-1 Bordeaux Aberdeen 0-3 Dundee United Leicester 2-2 Everton

[neilovan]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws

Candidates 6 away games for CAGLIARI (( exclude Juventus, Empoli and Cesana) 15 away games for DUNDEE UNITED ( exclude Celtic x 2 , Alloa x 2) 15 away games for BORDEAUX ( exclude Monaco , PSG , Lens and Caen) 15 away games for LILLE ( exclude Monaco , PSG , Lens and Caen) 15 away games for ST ETIENNE ( exclude Monaco , PSG , Lens and Caen) 17 away games for EVERTON (exclude Man CIty, Chelsea)

This week just one game Nice v Bordeaux

[Xtc12]

Re: a simple system for winning on away draws Hi Neilovan just noticed you have excluded Dundee U game against ALLOA ? ?I presume yesterdays game against St Mirren counted.