Aidymac Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR=class: row0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Germany v Argentina (20:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.38[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]98.10 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan82 Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th I'm astonished no one is talking about this already. It does seem to me that Germany's odds at 13/10 are still fairly high. Someone somewhere obviously thinks that Argentina still have a glimmer of hope, but to me that is misplaced. They were boring against Belgium, boring against Switzerland, two teams who I think were over hyped and not particularly strong, boring against Iran, boring against the dutch. I am not taking the 7-1 beating of Brazil as a reason to think that Germany are undefeatable, but regardless of that result they are the stronger side. It is apparent that the Argies defence is solid they have only conceded 2 goals in the last 5 games, I just don't think they have come up against a side happy enough to attack them instead of playing "lets defend messi with 11 men". That said the Germans have let in a few, and there is always the European South American continent jinx. I want to put my whole wad on the Germans to win, am I mental? +all points on Germany @ 13/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th I want to put my whole wad on the Germans to win, am I mental? +345 points on Germany @ 13/10 The serious answer is - yes, you are mental to put all your 'bank' on any bet. Unless you really can afford to lose it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan82 Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th I wouldn't suffer in any way if I did, it has accumulated from the £50 I started with at the beginning of the tournament. No bet so far I have done has looked this inviting though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob the I ty Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th I see what your saying. But to be fair we all know Brazil got it all wrong vs Germany and while not the most solid defensively argentina hasn't conceded a goal in 400 mins. Mascherano has been immense and I do think they can frustrate Germany and hit them on the counter with their speedy forwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th there is always the European South American continent jinx. Out of 20 World Cups, only 4 were held in South American continent. In 1930, where European teams have to travel via sea, and in 1950, European nations were weakened due to WWII & some opted out to focus on rebuilding their nations rather than participate in a sporting event. Hence, I wouldn't consider an event that happened twice, last occurred 36 years ago, a jinx. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt Mel Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th I think Argentina has only lost once in past 25 games if I'm correct. This team is solid and by looks of things very unified. Solid defence is obvious and final gets back dimaria to add to the attack. The Germans will be very troubled with this team for sure in breaking them down. Overall I think it's crazy to put your whole bank on Germans at these odds. Argentina odds are flattering now due to german thrashing of Brazil. This is good value for Argentina. Anyone would have thrashed the Brazil that day. This gives good value for the argentines. For them also now being the 'underdog' is better for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th I'm astonished no one is talking about this already. It does seem to me that Germany's odds at 13/10 are still fairly high. Someone somewhere obviously thinks that Argentina still have a glimmer of hope, but to me that is misplaced. They were boring against Belgium, boring against Switzerland, two teams who I think were over hyped and not particularly strong, boring against Iran, boring against the dutch. I am not taking the 7-1 beating of Brazil as a reason to think that Germany are undefeatable, but regardless of that result they are the stronger side. It is apparent that the Argies defence is solid they have only conceded 2 goals in the last 5 games, I just don't think they have come up against a side happy enough to attack them instead of playing "lets defend messi with 11 men". That said the Germans have let in a few, and there is always the European South American continent jinx. I want to put my whole wad on the Germans to win, am I mental? +345 points on Germany @ 13/10 Your point about Argentina not having come up against a team who have attacked them is true bar Nigeria. However, I think that has been to Argentina's detriment more than their advantage. They are struggling to score against a parked bus but I think an open attacking approach from Germany would favour Argentina every bit as much as Germany. Not that I really expect Germany to attack the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan82 Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th Your point about Argentina not having come up against a team who have attacked them is true bar Nigeria. However, I think that has been to Argentina's detriment more than their advantage. They are struggling to score against a parked bus but I think an open attacking approach from Germany would favour Argentina every bit as much as Germany. Not that I really expect Germany to attack the game. I suppose this is my biggest fear, or worry. I cannot tell if the Messi factor has meant every team has parked the bus, making it very hard for a good team to show up or whether it is that they are lacking up front, not that they are being out defended. I mean apart from the Nigeria game they barely scored in 90 minutes, just 4 times, comparable to Germany's 14, even if you don't factor in the 7 from the semi, Germany have still scored more goals against better teams. MKMK, makes a good point, the South American thing is probably not valid in this case, both teams training camps are equally distant from Rio, and the weather is expected to be Sunny, 24ish. So not bad in anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nukec Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th I just put £1000 on Germany. I just went in for fun... Could've feed half of Africa with that money, but stil... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EssexTony Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th I have actually been to Africa and done some volunteering out there for a month. It is money well spent, especially giving to charity but also love a good bet on the football :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slizorn Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th I just put £1000 on Germany. I just went in for fun... Could've feed half of Africa with that money' date=' but stil...[/quote'] You have to give some sort of reasoning with your posts, otherwise they will be deleted. Also stating how much you bet on a particular market is frowned upon and please refrain from doing so. Use a points system to indicate the strength of your bet (i.e. 1pts - 10pts) if that is something you are keen to do. Consider yourself warned! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masturbinho Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th I just put £1000 on Germany. I just went in for fun... Could've feed half of Africa with that money' date=' but stil...[/quote'] A very big mistake is betting a lot of money on the World Cup final just because it's the World Cup final. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elkhour Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th I think this game can really go either way. Argentina has shown us that they can defend this year. They probably are not playing the best football there is out there to watch, but they aren't conceding and they're getting the job done. Remember that Spain lifted the title 4 years ago having won all their knockout matches with a final score of 1-0 (in regular time or in extra time). Germany were probably the best team to watch in this World Cup, they have great individuals and good team play. This is the result of 7 years of had work with Joachim Lowe and this new German generation. But I keep feeling that they are unable to impose their game on their opponents. Have another look at their matches, particularly Ghana (free flowing and fast paced) and Algeria (deadlocked). To me, Argentina and the Netherlands were not fun to watch in this WC, but they were successful imposing the game they want, and snatching a result out of it. I expect Argentina to do the same in the finals. I see Argentina sitting back and defending, as Mascherano has been a real rock. They have what it takes to score on the counter and steal this one. If they don't, they also have what it takes to get into extra time. If this goes to extra time however, Germany might be the better all-around team to prevail (Argentina completely lost it in the first 20 minutes of extra time against the Dutch, and they are now tired). Therefore, this is really tough to call, and I am going for bets with value on this final. I've already made some good profit out of this WC, so I'm splashing my last 3 pts as follows: 2pts Argentina to win @3.50 0.5pt Germany to win in extra time @12.00 0.5pt Germany to win on penalties @11.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexc Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th Argentina has the individual brilliance in Messi, Aguero and the reliable Mascherano helping to shore up the defence. But Germany are undeniably the stronger team as a collective unit. In games like this I will always go for the team who plays for each other versus the team of individuals (and Germany have brilliant individuals of their own). Many in this Germany team experienced the joy of thumping Argentina 4-0 at the last World Cup. Admittedly the Argentines were terrible at the back under the leadership of Diego Maradona, but I'm sure the result lives in the memory of both sets of players who were participants in South Africa. I would not be at all surprised to see Germany claim an emphatic win in this match by at least a few goals to revive the albiceleste nightmare. I backed Argentina to win the World Cup before the tournament started at 11/2. I have now switched ALL of my profit over to the Germans lifting the trophy at 7/10. I cannot for the life of me see a way for this Argentina team to stop the German machine. This glory has been three major international competitions in the making. Their time has come, and I believe Germany will be World Champions on Sunday night. Selection: Germany to lift the trophy at 7/10 (Betfair) But Messi and Aguero have hardly been brilliant so far, and it seems unlikely either will flip a switch and be brilliant in this one. Muller has been brilliant for Germany, but other than that. So I would say it comes down to the better unit, which is Germany, imo. Also find it a bit odd how a lot of people are downplaying that 7-1. Argentina have scraped through most games, whilst Germany have just destroyed Brazil. I would be stunned if Argentina won this in normal time, really surprised if they won the trophy. Safest play for me is to lay Argentina, which are good odds (put a tenner on, say, get nearly £4 back). You could then back Germany to win the trophy in extra-time/pens with your lay winnings, though I don't know what those odds would be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob the I ty Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th We could very well see another draw here. We've seen Germany struggle to break down disciplined teams like Algeria. Obviously Germany's strength on set pieces could very well be the difference like it was vs France. We saw in 2010 an early German set piece allowed them to take control of the Argentines. I am leaning on Germany to lift the trophy but I really see a cagey match, both nations are desperate for a star on their shirts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TotoSchillaci Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th Well if it's an end to end open match (which I'm hoping) I can see Argrentina scoring but can see Germany scoring more. All teams sat back vs Argentines and this is inflating the perception of their strong defence. Nigeria however was the exception that attacked and were able to put two goals in the Argentine net. The Germans are so comfortable playing with each other and for me the Bayern connection is a big factor. Di Maria's condition still isn't 100% clear and Auguero coming off the bench wasn't at his usual level so I don't think he has totally recovered either. These Germans have got so close so many times recently to a final that they must be well and truly sick of being the bridesmaids. Argentina haven't faced this calibre of attack yet where there are 5 or 6 players who can all create and finish on a high level. Like someone said above, I think their time has come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
argyleultra Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th Brazils collapse is being talked up, complete shambles. Germany wont press as high up field. 4/1 at lads on pens is massive. Got a feeling argies are going to win. German defence not the strongest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuMeSyn Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th Argentina not to score @ 2.5 (William Hill) for a 0.75 stake Well it's obvious that even though Germany demolished Brazil in the semis, it's hard to say who is going to win this. It's always a final. There could be facts that make me go towards Germany, other facts make me go towards backing Argentina. When I sum it up, it seems to me that Germany has more of a chance of lifting the trophy. Even though there is a big chance of a 0-0, as usually happens in these kind of finals, I do think Germany could win 1-0, 2-0 in the 90 minutes. Argentina will have a lot of trouble in bypassing Germany defensive organization. Whenever they faced a strong defensive formation (Iran, Switzerland, Netherlands), they surely struggled a lot. Unlike Germany, who act as a team in their offensive process, Argentina depend too much on the likes of Messi and Di Maria to break through the opposition. Messi will be well marked by the likes of Bastian and Khedira, while Di Maria is unavailable. This will massively cost them offensively and I can see them having a lot of trouble in scoring unless in a set-piece from Messi or heading out of a corner (Garay could be the man here). Although Germany wasn't that convincing in defending, especially against Algeria and Ghana, they surely seemed to get more consistent and organized with Lahm as RB and Khedira packed next to Bastian as a defensive midfielder. They conceded against Brazil after 90 minutes of immense quality in defending, and didn't seem to struggle at all against good teams such as Portugal, USA and France. And when they seem to struggle, there is always Neuer back there! While Germany to win @ 2.30 on most bookies, we could get Argentina not to score @ 2.50 looks good, and it automatically covers the 0-0. I will probably cover this one with Ezequiel Garay TSA @ 26 (Unibet), as I feel he can cause an impact on the corners and alongside Messi, is the main threat. Even though Germany looked strong in the aerial department. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th 4pts Under 2 goals 1.95 BetVictor This isn’t traditionally a match which sees a lot of goals in recent times and why would it? The stakes are as big as they could ever be in this match and I anticipate another tight match here. Only one of the last six finals have seen more than two goals and that was when Brazil had all sorts of issues with Ronaldo in 98. These two sides have only conceded one goal in the entire knockout stages between them and that came when Germany were 7-0 up against Brazil in the last minute so they don’t concede many which makes me like under two goals here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/germany-vs-argentina-betting-don-t-expect-many-goals-in-the-world-cup-final Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th 1pt ew M.Hummels First goalscorer 28/1 Bet365 One centre back who has already bagged a couple of goals in the tournament is Mats Hummels and he looks a fair price to open the scoring at 28/1. The last time these two met in a final a defender scored the only goal and in 2006 Marco Materazzi scored Italy’s goal so unlikely scorers do find the net in these big games. Hummels has already scored first in this tournament against France and with Argentina not being the biggest side going around he’ll be aimed for with the set pieces so a small each way punt on the giant German could pay dividends. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/germany-vs-argentina-betting-mats-hummels-looks-a-big-price-to-open-the-scoring 1pt J.Mascherano Man of the Match 16/1 William Hill One such man who has been immense in the knockout stages of this tournament is Javier Mascherano and I see no reason why he won’t go well in this match. Mascherano has been nominated as a Golden Ball contender and a big game here could just sway that his way. With the likes of Muller, Ozil, Gotze and even Khedira all buzzing around Mascherano’s area of the field he may well be needed to make key interceptions and blocks and if Argentina go on and win the final the former Liverpool man’s performance could well be looked upon as decisive. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/germany-vs-argentina-betting-javier-mascherano-could-have-a-big-game-in-the-final Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th Its going to be close but its Germany for me Toni Kroos to be man of the match 10/1 paddy power Bastien Schweinsteiger to be man of the match 11/1 paddy power Javier Mascherano to be booked first 9/1 paddy power i feel that these two will be so important if Germany are going to win this world cup there are so important in that midfield i just think that the midfield will be the key Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThusPrider Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th It has been a long time since I've had a healthy sized bet on. Having watched all the games this world cup, and with much success in the later rounds, I feel confident enough to give a tip for the final. It is going to be a very difficult final for the Argentines, with the Germans being high on confidence, having an extra day's rest as well as Argentina enduring ET and penalties, its clear to see that the Germans will be favourites for the World Cup. Their outright 90 minutes win has been trading at around 2.3-2.4ish on the exchanges, and feels about right. However, Argentina at 3.70 feels a tad long for me. It is difficult to see Argentina scoring goals against the Germans with their discipline. It can easily end up being a cagey game, with 0 - 0 and 1 - 1 easily in range. A simple German win of 1 - 0, 2 - 1 or 2 - 0 seems about right to me. Of course with the Germans destroying Brazil 7 - 1 you never know what is going to happen in the game. but it is safe to say that it is very unlikely in the final, as I felt pre-match it was sooner or later that Brazil would be humiliated in front of their home fans after being relatively lucky to reach the semi final, then meeting an organised team who deserved their place in the semi final. I infact had a punt on 1 - 4 in the game, which I backed at 180. It traded briefly in-play at as low as 7.2 whilst the Germans were 4 - 0 up. I could have cashed out for 25x my stake but the 5th goal quickly went in. I probably would have let it ride anyway given the poor liquidity on the market even on Betfair. Laying Argentina is too thin, and having said all that, Germany -0.25 AH seems a very nice bet to me, and I've stuck a 5 figure sum on it with Bet365, who are offering 1.975. It is 1.970 with Pinnacle, with a limit of £570k currently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th Laying Argentina is too thin' date= and having said all that, Germany -0.25 AH seems a very nice bet to me, and I've stuck a 5 figure sum on it with Bet365, who are offering 1.975. It is 1.970 with Pinnacle, with a limit of £570k currently. I think it would be more relevant to others if you weighted your bet in terms of 'points', e.g. 5/10/20 points rather than saying how much money you've staked. But thanks for the well-reasoned post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freshshave Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th Hi MPLouis, I've always wondered how to understand betting by "points". Is there a link you can provide (I tried googling... I must be bad at it) or can you explain the concept to me? Sorry about being new! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th Hi MPLouis' date=' I've always wondered how to understand betting by "points". Is there a link you can provide (I tried googling... I must be bad at it) or can you explain the concept to me? Sorry about being new![/quote'] It's basically a points staking plan, whereby how much % of your BankRoll is to be used on a bet. For instance, if you have a starting BankRoll of $1,000, splitting this into 100pts means that 1 point is 1000/100 = $10. Depending on how often you expect to win your bets and average winning odds, you can than determine your stakes. Stakes are usually kept to a maximum of 10points per bet for bankroll management. Apologies for going off-topic for the WC Final thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddevil93 Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th Laying Argentina is too thin, and having said all that, Germany -0.25 AH seems a very nice bet to me, and I've stuck a 5 figure sum on it with Bet365, who are offering 1.975. What does this bet mean cause I never used handicaps and how can I bet on that ? I'm tempted to go all in with Germany to win in 90 mins at 2.3 with WH. I'm expecting another humiliation match but my only concern is Argentina's defense which is well organised. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salmonman Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th What does this bet mean cause I never used handicaps and how can I bet on that ?You win if Germany, if its a draw you get half of your stake back, if Argentina win you lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th What does this bet mean cause I never used handicaps and how can I bet on that? Some football bets are THREE-way (e.g. Home win/draw/away win) Asian Handicap bets are TWO-way e.g Home win AH0, Away win AH0. If you bet on a Home win AH0 and it's a draw, your stake is refunded. Germany -0.25 AH means HALF your bet is on Germany AH0 and HALF on Germany -0.5 AH0. Germany -0.5 AH0 is the same as Germany winning, so as salmonman says above, you would win if Germany win, and half lose/half void (stake refunded) if it's a draw. If you google 'Asian Handicap bets explained' you'll find a lot of sites explaining in more detail, like this wiki page - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_handicap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestjamesbond Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Re: World Cup Final - Germany v Argentina > Sunday July 13th Who will score for germany? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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