MPLouis Posted May 5, 2014 Author Share Posted May 5, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners, 14 bets, +9.9% yield Update Mon 5th May Juventus won the title in Italy yesterday when Roma lost. Many other leagues have finished, so the updated list of teams is shorter - Updated list of teams: * Celtic * Bayern * Juventus * Salzburg * Benfica Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted May 5, 2014 Author Share Posted May 5, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners, 18 bets, -3.3% yield Juventus play their first home game as champions tonight. I think it's worth opposing them … Juventus v Atalanta 1.22/8.2/20.43 BET 19 Juventus v Atalanta Atalanta or Draw 5.2 Marathonbet Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted May 5, 2014 Author Share Posted May 5, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners, 18 bets, -3.3% yield Result of Bet 19 BET 19 Juventus v Atalanta Atalanta or Draw 5.2 Marathonbet Stake: 2 points Result: Juventus 1 Atalanta 0 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted May 8, 2014 Author Share Posted May 8, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners, 19 bets, -9.5% yield Update Thurs 8th May PSG won the French title last night because Monaco only drew. As PSG played straight after the Monaco game had finished, they could have been opposed for around 5.2 (Rennes or Draw). Rennes won the game 2-1 - definitely an opportunity missed I think ... once again a team playing at home straight after winning the title fails to win. Updated list of teams: * Celtic * Bayern * Juventus * Salzburg * Benfica * PSG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted May 10, 2014 Author Share Posted May 10, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners, 19 bets, -9.5% yield Sat 10th May - Sun 10th May fixtures Celtic - Dundee Utd 1.33/6.0/11.0 Bayern Munich - VfB Stuttgart 1.22/8.65/15.5 Roma - Juventus 2.38/3.51/3.4 AC Wolfsberger - Salzburg 11.0/6.4/1.35 Porto - Benfica 1.79/3.92/5.0 Lille - Paris SG 3.0/3.45/2.88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted May 10, 2014 Author Share Posted May 10, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners, 19 bets, -9.5% yield I don't think I see any particular value in opposing any of the league winners this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted May 15, 2014 Author Share Posted May 15, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners, 19 bets, -9.5% yield Update Thurs 15th May With many leagues having finished last weekend, there are only a few teams on the list at the moment. Updated list of teams: * Juventus * PSG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted May 15, 2014 Author Share Posted May 15, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners, 19 bets, -9.5% yield Fixtures Sat 17th to Sun 18th May Juventus v Cagliari 1.26/7.0/15.0 PSG v Montepelier 1.3/6.2/13.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted May 15, 2014 Author Share Posted May 15, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners, 19 bets, -9.5% yield Saturday 17th May PSG v Montepelier 1.3/6.2/13.0 PSG play their final game of the season, and the third game since they won the league. Montpelier still need 1 point to guarantee survival. I think Montpelier will be more motivated here, and PSG might find it hard to find motivation. At the odds, I reckon it's worth opposing them. BET 20 PSG v Montepelier Montpelier or Draw 4.1 Marathonbet Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners, 19 bets, -9.5% yield With many leagues having finished last weekend' date=' there are only a few teams on the list at the moment.[/quote'] But why are you limiting your system for "main" leagues? :unsure Check "summer" leagues; Hiroshima with record so far 6W - 4D - 2L, and KR Reykjavik 1W - 0D - 2L would be good candidates for your system. On the other side, Malmo with 7 wins out of 9 matches and Stromsgodset, HB Torshavn and HJK with 5 wins out of 8 matches would probably not be the ones to cheer you... Anyway, there are other leagues running during summer, such as Singapore, Canada, USA, South Korea, China..., so plenty of teams to choose from; and since you look for 1X2 market only, any bookmaker will have those. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners, 19 bets, -9.5% yield But why are you limiting your system for "main" leagues? :unsure Check "summer" leagues; Hiroshima with record so far 6W - 4D - 2L, and KR Reykjavik 1W - 0D - 2L would be good candidates for your system. On the other side, Malmo with 7 wins out of 9 matches and Stromsgodset, HB Torshavn and HJK with 5 wins out of 8 matches would probably not be the ones to cheer you... Anyway, there are other leagues running during summer, such as Singapore, Canada, USA, South Korea, China..., so plenty of teams to choose from; and since you look for 1X2 market only, any bookmaker will have those. He's only looking at those teams who have secured the league title this season, not the current league leaders/past champions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners, 19 bets, -9.5% yield He's only looking at those teams who have secured the league title this season' date=' not the current league leaders/past champions.[/quote'] Ah, I didn't realize, sorry! Thanks for the clarification! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted May 15, 2014 Author Share Posted May 15, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners, 19 bets, -9.5% yield Ah' date=' I didn't realize, sorry! Thanks for the clarification! :ok[/quote'] As mkmk said, the idea is to oppose teams which have already won the league (or perhaps promotion) as sometimes their form will drop off. I'm trying to concentrate mainly on Western European leagues, but I might extend it to those in other countries sometimes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted May 18, 2014 Author Share Posted May 18, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners, 19 bets, -9.5% yield Result of Bet 20 BET 20 PSG v Montepelier Montpelier or Draw 4.1 Marathonbet Stake: 2 points Result: PSG 4 Montepelier 0 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted May 23, 2014 Author Share Posted May 23, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners, 19 bets, -9.5% yield Update Friday 23rd May All the main Western European leagues have finished now, so there are no league winners to oppose at the moment. I will be following the European Summer Leagues like the Swedish and Norwegian ones - these finish in November. So this thread might go fairly quiet for a while. Updated list of teams: NONE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 16, 2015 Author Share Posted April 16, 2015 Re: Opposing league winners, 19 bets, -9.5% yield =============== Summary so far 20 bets 14 @ 2 points = 28 6 @ 1 point = 6 Total stake: 34 points Returns Bet 1 3.96 Bet 2 nil Bet 3 6.5 Bet 4 nil Bet 5 5 Bet 6 6 Bet 7 nil Bet 8 nil Bet 9 nil Bet 10 nil Bet 11 nil Bet 12 nil Bet 13 3.82 Bet 14 nil Bet 15 nil Bet 16 nil Bet 17 3.72 Bet 18 (1) nil Bet 19 nil Bet 20 nil Total 29.0 points Strike Rate = 30% Yield = ((29/34) - 1) x 100 = -15% Starting bank: 100 points Current bank: 95 points =============== Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 16, 2015 Author Share Posted April 16, 2015 Re: Opposing league winners, 20 bets, -15% yield Just the updated the stats, showing a disappointing yield of -15% in the first season (2013-2014). Teams are just starting to win promotion from the European leagues for the 2014-2015 season, so this thread should be busy over the next few weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 17, 2015 Author Share Posted April 17, 2015 Re: Opposing league winners, 20 bets, -15% yield Sat 18th April Bristol City v Coventry City are newly promoted from League One to the Championship - this is their first game since promotion was confirmed this week. Coventry are in a little danger themselves near the rel zone, they could do with some more points, and they have had some decent results recently. Bristol City manager Steve Cotterill says there were 'no celebrations the other night in terms of alcohol'. Home fans will be sure to be celebrating tomorrow though - and this sort of mood sometimes works against the newly-promoted side. I think it's worth opposing Bristol City here at odds of around 1.6. BET 21 Coventry or draw 2.63 Betway Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 19, 2015 Author Share Posted April 19, 2015 Re: Opposing league winners, 20 bets, -15% yield Sat 18th April Bristol City v Coventry City are newly promoted from League One to the Championship - this is their first game since promotion was confirmed this week. Coventry are in a little danger themselves near the rel zone, they could do with some more points, and they have had some decent results recently. Bristol City manager Steve Cotterill says there were 'no celebrations the other night in terms of alcohol'. Home fans will be sure to be celebrating tomorrow though - and this sort of mood sometimes works against the newly-promoted side. I think it's worth opposing Bristol City here at odds of around 1.6. BET 21 Coventry or draw 2.63 Betway Stake: 2 points Result: Bristol City 0 Coventry 0 Bet won :ok Stake: 2 points Return: 5.26 points It seemed to go as I imagined, with Coventry having more chances according to the BBC report: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/32261976 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 19, 2015 Author Share Posted April 19, 2015 Re: Opposing league winners, 20 bets, -15% yield Looking back to last season, I realise I was actually opposing league winners AND promoted teams. Which is also what I did opposing 'just promoted' Bristol City yesterday. So I'm changing the thread title to: Opposing 'just promoted' teams :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 24, 2015 Author Share Posted April 24, 2015 Re: Opposing 'just promoted' teams, 20 bets, -15% yield ================ Sat 25th April League Two Burton v Northampton Burton are newly promoted. This is their first home game since winning promotion. Northampton also have an outside chance of the playoffs I'm going to oppose Burton here. BET 22 Northampton or draw 1.94 Marathon Stake: 2 points ============= Sat 25th April Dutch Eredivisie Excelsior v PSV PSV are newly champions, this is their first match since. Excelsior are near the bottom and in need of points. Time to oppose PSV. BET 23 Excelsior or draw 2.77 Marathon Stake: 2 points ============= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 30, 2015 Author Share Posted April 30, 2015 Re: Opposing 'just promoted' teams, 20 bets, -15% yield ================= Results of Bets 21-23 BET 21 Bristol City 0 Coventry 0 Bet won Stake: 2 points Return: 5.26 points BET 22 Burton 3 Northampton 1 Bet lost BET 23 Excelsior 2 PSV 3 Bet lost Total stake: 6 points Total return: 5.26 points ================= Performance update Bets 1-20 Total stake: 34 points Total return: 29 points To Bet 23 Total stake: 40 points Total return: 34.26 points Yield = ((34.26/40) - 1) x 100 = -14.35% ================= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 30, 2015 Author Share Posted April 30, 2015 Re: Opposing 'just promoted' teams, 23 bets, -14.35% yield All Saturday 2nd May I'm happy to oppose Bournemouth, Watford and Shrewsbury who were all promoted last week. They are all short odds to win on Saturday, and I feel it is good value to oppose them. Championship Charlton v Bournemouth Barring a massive goal swing from Bournemouth to Middlesbro, Bournemouth are already promoted (hence the celebrations by their fans on Monday night when they beat Bolton 3-0). Their fans are sure to be in party mood here. Bournemouth could win the Championship title here if they better Watford's result. Charlton are in mid-table. BET 24 Charlton or draw 2.8 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Championship Watford v Sheff Wednesday Watford were promoted last Saturday, and this is their final game and their fans will be celebrating here. Sheffield Wednesday are in mid-table. BET 25 Sheff Wednesday or draw 3.1 Marathon Stake: 2 points League Two Shrewsbury v Plymouth Shrewsbury confirmed their promotion last weekend when they won at Cheltenham. This is their final game and their fans will be celebrating. Plymouth are in 7th place, the last playoff position. They could lose out to Luton if they lose here Luton beat Stevenage by a big score. BET 26 Plymouth or draw 2.38 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Three bets @ 2 points = Total stake 6 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted May 4, 2015 Author Share Posted May 4, 2015 Re: Opposing 'just promoted' teams, 23 bets, -14.35% yield ================= Results of Bets 24-26 BET 24 Charlton 0 Bournemouth 3 Bet lost BET 25 Watford 1 Sheff Wednesday 1 Bet won Stake: 2 points Return: 6.2 points BET 26 Shrewsbury 0 Plymouth 2 Bet won Stake: 2 points Return: 4.76 points Total stake: 6 points Total return: 10.96 points ================= Performance update Bets 1-20 Total stake: 34 points Total return: 29 points To Bet 26 Total stake: 46 points Total return: 45.22 points Yield = ((45.22/46) - 1) x 100 = -1.7% ================= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted May 6, 2015 Author Share Posted May 6, 2015 Re: Opposing 'just promoted' teams, 26 bets, -1.7% yield ============== Sat 9th May 17.00 Juventus v Cagliari This is Juve's first home game since winning the title. They are also in between their two Champions League games with Real Madrid, so their focus will probably be more on the second game against Real next week. Caglari are in the relegation zone but they have won two of their last three games to give them a glimmer of hope with four game left. I think it's worth opposing Juventus here at decent odds. BET 27 Cagliari or draw 2.6 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Sun 10th May 13.30 PSV v Heracles PSV's first home game since winning the Dutch title. Heracles have nothing to play for. PSV's short odds make them worth opposing here I think - BET 28 Heracles or draw 3.8 BV Stake: 2 points TWO bets @ 2 points = Total stake 4 points ============= Bayern Munich and Chelsea are playing their first home league games after winning the title this weekend. I am not sure their odds are short enough to make them worth opposing at the moment (1.6 and 2.1). Ideally I like to the see the just promoted/title winner priced below 1.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted May 10, 2015 Author Share Posted May 10, 2015 Re: Opposing 'just promoted' teams, 26 bets, -1.7% yield ================= Results of Bets 27-28 BET 27 Juventus 1 Cagliari 1 Bet won Stake: 2 points Return: 5.2 points BET 28 PSV 2 Heracles 0 Bet lost Total stake: 4 points Total return: 5.2 points ================= Performance update Bets 1-20 Total stake: 34 points Total return: 29 points To Bet 28 Total stake: 50 points Total return: 50.42 points Yield = ((50.42/50) - 1) x 100 = +0.8% ================= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted May 18, 2015 Author Share Posted May 18, 2015 Re: Opposing 'just promoted' teams, 28 bets, +0.8% yield Spain Barcelona v La Coruna Sat 23rd May 17.30 Barcelona won the league on Sunday 17th May, so this will be a celebration party. La Coruna need points to make sure of survival. BET 29 La Coruna +1EH 5.5 Ladbrokes France PSG v Reims Sat 23rd May 20.00 PSG won the title on Saturday 16th May when they won and Lyon could only draw. This is their last league game of the season. Reims are safe from relegation and have won their last two games. BET 30 Reims +1EH 6.5 BV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted May 20, 2015 Author Share Posted May 20, 2015 Re: Opposing 'just promoted' teams, 28 bets, +0.8% yield Portugal Benfica v Maritimo Sunday 24th May 18.00 Benfica won the Portuguese title last weekend when Benfica and Porto both drew. This is their final game and a chance to celebrate. Maritimo have a small chance of getting 6th place for a Europa League spot. I think it's worth opposing Benfica at long odds. BET 31 Benfica v Maritimo Maritimo or draw 5.5 Bet 365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted May 21, 2015 Author Share Posted May 21, 2015 Re: Opposing 'just promoted' teams, 28 bets, +0.8% yield Portugal Benfica v Maritimo Sunday 24th May 18.00 Benfica won the Portuguese title last weekend when Benfica and Porto both drew. This is their final game and a chance to celebrate. Maritimo have a small chance of getting 6th place for a Europa League spot. I think it's worth opposing Benfica at long odds. BET 31 Benfica v Maritimo Maritimo or draw 5.5 Bet 365 Sorry - this game is on Saturday 23rd, not Sunday 24th Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted May 21, 2015 Author Share Posted May 21, 2015 Re: Opposing 'just promoted' teams, 28 bets, +0.8% yield Austria Salzburg v Wolfsberger Sunday 24th May 16.45 Salzburg are virtually champions. Although second-placed Rapid can catch them on points, Salzburg have a Goal Difference of +53 and Rapid's is +23 - a difference of 30. Salzburg's manager, Adi Hutter, said after their draw in Graz: "You have to assume that we have wrapped it up. The team have deserved it." http://www.redbulls.com/en/fc-red-bull-salzburg/news/saison_2014_15/red-bulls-take-draw-in-graz.html Wolfsberger can finish in the top 4, so they have an incentive to get something from this game. I think Salzburg should be opposed at current odds: BET 32 Wolfsberger or draw 4.5 Bet365 (NB: All bets are 2 points unless stated otherwise) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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