Opposing 'just promoted' teams, 32 bets, +5.9% yield

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - FOUR bets, +30.75% yield Summary so far 7 bets 5 @ 2 points = 10 2 @ 1 point = 2 Total stake: 12 points Returns Bet 1 3.96 Bet 2 nil Bet 3 6.5 Bet 4 nil Bet 5 5 Bet 6 6 Bet 7 nil Total 21.46 points Strike Rate = 57.1% Yield = ((21.46/12) - 1) x 100 = 78.8% Starting bank: 100 points Current bank: 109.46 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - SEVEN bets, +78.8% yield My comments: I saw parts of all three games - Salzburg, Bayern and Olympiakos. Salzburg started well and took the lead, but Sturm attacked in the second half and missed several good chances before equalising. Salzburg's heads seemed to drop when the equaliser went in. In this game I noticed a big difference in the body language of the two teams. Sturm were straining and determined. Salzburg were relaxed but the players shoulders seemed to drop. I thought Sturm deserved the win. Bayern, playing their first team I think, with Robben etc, dominated the early stages against Dortmund. Dortmund defended early on. Then they took the lead and went to add two more in the second half. Olympiakos were easily the most impressive of the three, and deserved to win their game. The surprise is they only won 1-0. Smirnis were outfought and outclassed. Yield is now 78% - clearly unsustainable in the long term I think.

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - SEVEN bets, +78.8% yield Updated list of teams to follow: (Title winners and promoted teams from selected leagues, mainly Western Europe) * Celtic * Bayern * Salzburg * Leicester * Wolves

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - SEVEN bets, +78.8% yield Monday 14th April 2014 Weekend preview Here's an early list of matches for NEXT weekend (Friday 18th to Monday 21st April) involving the sides I'm interested in opposing * Celtic * Bayern * Salzburg * Leicester * Wolves I'm doing this early partly to try and get my thoughts together and recommendations done earlier than last week ... Friday 18th April Wolves v Rotherham Saturday 19th April Motherwell v Celtic Braunschweig v Bayern Admira v Salzburg Leicester v QPR Monday 21st April Leyton Orient v Wolves Odds and recommendations to follow

[only1woz]

Re: Opposing league winners - SEVEN bets, +78.8% yield Good work sir, keep it going!

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - SEVEN bets, +78.8% yield Playing Friday 18th April Wolves v Rotherham 1/2/x odds: 1.9/3.8/5.0 Rotherham +0.5 2.26 188Bet Wolves are newly promoted, and realistically, Rotherham are heading for the playoffs. For these 'opposing winners' bets, the ideal bet is for a league or promotion winner to be at home to a low-placed club in their next game, at very short odds. This was the case with Celtic, Bayern and Salzburg straight after winning promotion (see first post in thread). The average odds for opposing them was over 5.0. here the odds on opposing Wolves are just over 2.0 - nowhere near as good. So in general, I am going to look for odds much higher than 2.0 and preferably 5.0 or more. Having said that, and having seen Rotherham's quality, I think it is just about worth backing them today (but with half normal stake) ... BET 8 Wolves v Rotherham Rotherham +0.5 2.26 188Bet Stake: 1 point

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - SEVEN bets, +78.8% yield

BET 8 Wolves v Rotherham Rotherham +0.5 2.26 188Bet Stake: 1 point

Result: Wolves 6 Rotherham 4 Bet lost Stake: 1 points Return: 0 points A losing bet, but quite happy with it - according to Radio Five Live, Rotherham dominated the second half - and it sounds as though they could easily have drawn or won.

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - SEVEN bets, +78.8% yield UPDATE Fri 18th April Brentford were promoted from League One today, so they join the list of teams to consider opposing.

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - SEVEN bets, +78.8% yield Playing Saturday 19th April (1/2/x odds are best odds from oddsportal) Leicester v QPR 1.9/4.1/4.8 Best odds to oppose Leicester: QPR +0.5 2.21 188Bet QPR came out of a run of 3 games without a run last week with a 5-2 thrashing of Nottingham Forest. I think they could just be worth backing here against promoted Leicester, but at half the normal stake ... BET 9 Leicester v QPR QPR +0.5 2.21 188Bet Stake: 1 point

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - SEVEN bets, +78.8% yield Playing Saturday 19th April (1/2/x odds are best odds from oddsportal) Motherwell v Celtic 6.3/4.5/1.62 Best odds to oppose Celtic: Motherwell +0.5 2.59 PInnacle This is the first match for both sides in the new end-of-season Championship Group. This matches the top 6 sides against each other to decide any issues at the top. Celtic have already won the title of course. The issues to be decided are 2nd and 3rd place (for Europa League entry). Europa League entry is probably more attractive to Scottish clubs than English ones, so it's a prize worth fighting for. Celtic apparently dominated their last league game, a 2-0 win away at Dundee United. Motherwell clearly have more to play for, but Celtic have the better players. So much depends on Celtic's attitude on the day. I am cautious about this one, so it'a a no bet ... NO BET

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - 14 bets, +9.9% yield Playing Saturday 19th April (1/2/x odds are best odds from oddsportal) Braunschweig v Bayern 9.0/5.6/1.45 Best odds to oppose Bayern: Braunschweig or Draw 3.25 Marathon/Bet365 It's top v bottom. Braunschweig are bottom of the league, but only 3 or 4 points from safety with 4 games to play. That means they could really do with something from this game. Braunschweig have been in good form at home, where they are unbeaten for 5 games, drawing with Gladbach and Wolfsburg, and beating Mainz and Hannover. Bayern have the first leg of the Champions League semi final to look forward to on Wednesday at Real Madrid. The speculation is that Guardiola will field a near-first choice line-up here (injuries allowing). Guardiola is quoted as saying "We need to have a good game against Braunschweig to be able to perform in Madrid" In other words this match will be a rehearsal for the Madrid game. This suggests to me that Bayern will be more interested in the performance than the result, and it might just be worth opposing them, especially given Braunschweig's strong home form and need for points. BET 10 Braunschweig v Bayern Braunschweig or Draw 3.25 Marathon/Bet365 Stake: 2 points Admira v Salzburg 7.9/5.5/1.43 Best odds to oppose Salzburg: Admira or Draw 3.25 Bet365 Admira are 8th, 10 points above bottom placed Innsbruck,and virtually safe from relegation with 4 games to play. Their home form this season has been pretty good - they've won half their games. And since the winter break, they've beaten Rapid at home, and narrowly lost to Austria (0-1). They won the last home game against Salzburg 3-1 last November. I saw Salzburg thrash Wolfsberger 6-0 away in the cup in midweek. The question is will they be up for this league game? Since winning the title, they've won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 in the league. I think Salzburg are worth opposing, but with half normal stake ... BET 11 Admira v Salzburg Admira or Draw 3.25 Bet365 Stake: 1 point

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - SEVEN bets, +78.8% yield Results of BETS 9-11 BET 9 Leicester v QPR QPR +0.5 2.21 188Bet Stake: 1 point Result: Leicester 1 QPR 0 Bet lost Stake: 1 points Return: 0 points BET 10 Braunschweig v Bayern Braunschweig or Draw 3.25 Marathon/Bet365 Stake: 2 points Result: Braunschweig 0 Bayern 2 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points BET 11 Admira v Salzburg Admira or Draw 3.25 Bet365 Stake: 1 point Result: Admira 2 Salzburg 3 Bet lost Stake: 1 points Return: 0 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - SEVEN bets, +78.8% yield Summary so far 11 bets 6 @ 2 points = 12 5 @ 1 point = 5 Total stake: 17 points Returns Bet 1 3.96 Bet 2 nil Bet 3 6.5 Bet 4 nil Bet 5 5 Bet 6 6 Bet 7 nil Bet 8 nil Bet 9 nil Bet 10 nil Bet 11 nil Total 21.46 points Strike Rate = 36.4% Yield = ((21.46/17) - 1) x 100 = 26.2% Starting bank: 100 points Current bank: 104.46 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - SEVEN bets, +78.8% yield My comments Leicester v QPR I saw stats and reports, and it sounds as though QPR were the better side for some of the game Braunschweig v Bayern I saw some of this, and Braunschweig looked the better side in the first half. Bayern's attacking qualify made the difference in the second half. Admira v Salzburg I was quite a bit of this. Salzburg, as usual, looked by far the smoother more attractive side. Admira impressed with their spirit and pace. Salzburg did 'just enough' to win, winning through an injury time free kick.

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - 11 bets, +26.2% yield Update Sunday 20th April Benfica won the Portuguese league today with 2 games remaining, so they join the list. Updated list of teams to follow: * Celtic * Bayern * Salzburg * Leicester * Wolves * Brentford * Benfica

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - 11 bets, +26.2% yield Monday 21st April Leyton Orient v Wolves 3.8/3.5/2.2 MK Dons v Brentford 3.7/3.6/2.2 Two games in league one tomorrow involving already promoted Wolves and Brentford. Both are away from home at odds of 2.2. I think these odds are a bit too high to risk opposing ... NO BET

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - 11 bets, +26.2% yield Update Monday 21st April Burnley were promoted from the Championship today, so they are added to the list. Updated list of teams: * Leicester * Burnley * Wolves * Brentford * Celtic * Bayern * Salzburg * Benfica

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - 11 bets, +26.2% yield Monday 21st April 2014 Next matches Tues 22nd to Sun 27th April Tues 22nd April Bolton v Leicester Saturday 26th April Huddersfield v Leicester Burnley v Ipswich Coventry v Wolves Colchester v Brentford Bayern v Bremen Rapid Vienna v Salzburg Sunday 27th April Celtic v Inverness Odds and recommendations to follow

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - 11 bets, +26.2% yield Tues 22nd April Bolton v Leicester 1/2/x 3.3/3.65/2.34 I think Leicester are too long to oppose at 2.34

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - 11 bets, +26.2% yield Weekend games Sat 26th and Sun 27th April Saturday 26th April Huddersfield v Leicester 3.6/3.6/2.2 Burnley v Ipswich 2.4/3.5/3.3 Coventry v Wolves 4.4/3.7/1.9 Colchester v Brentford 3.7/3.5/2.1 Bayern v Bremen 1.25/7.5/13.5 Rapid Vienna v Salzburg 4.0/3.8/2.0 Sunday 27th April Celtic v Inverness 1.33/6.2/11.0 I think the majority of these teams are too long - the exceptions being Bayern, Salzburg and Celtic - see below.

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - 11 bets, +26.2% yield I think Bayern, Salzburg and Celtic are worth opposing this weekend. Bayern v Bremen 1.25/7.5/13.5 Bayern are in the middle of their Champions League semi final legs. Bremen are virtually safe in 11th place. Not much pressure on Bremen at long odds and Bayern might well have one eye on the second leg of the Champions League semi final. BET 12 Bremen or Draw 4.5 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Rapid Vienna v Salzburg 4.0/3.8/2.0 Rapid are 2nd in the league. They have a strong home record and a decent h2h record against Salzburg. Salzburg lost 3-0 to Austria in their last trip to Vienna a few weeks ago. BET 13 Rapid or Draw 1.91 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Sunday 27th April Celtic v Inverness 1.33/6.2/11.0 Celtic the stronger team of course. How strong is their motivation? Inverness' record at Celtic isn't too bad, and they have an outside chance of finishing 2nd or 3rd for a Europa League place. I think Celtic's odds are low enough to make them worth opposing. BET 14 Inverness or Draw 3.6 Marathon Stake: 2 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - 11 bets, +26.2% yield Results of Bets 12-13 BET 12 Bayern v Bremen Bremen or Draw 4.5 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Result: Bayern 5 Bremen 2 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil BET 13 Rapid v Salzburg Rapid or Draw 1.91 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Result: Rapid 2 Salzburg 1 Bet won Stake: 2 points Return: 3.82 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - 11 bets, +26.2% yield Update Sat 26th April Rochdale and Scunthorpe were promoted from League Two today. Updated list of teams: * Leicester * Burnley * Wolves * Brentford * Rochdale * Scunthorpe * Celtic * Bayern * Salzburg * Benfica

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - 11 bets, +26.2% yield Result of Bet 14 BET 14 Celtic v Inverness Inverness or Draw 3.6 Marathon Stake: 2 points Result: Celtic 6 Inverness 0 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - 11 bets, +26.2% yield Summary so far 14 bets 9 @ 2 points = 18 5 @ 1 point = 5 Total stake: 23 points Returns Bet 1 3.96 Bet 2 nil Bet 3 6.5 Bet 4 nil Bet 5 5 Bet 6 6 Bet 7 nil Bet 8 nil Bet 9 nil Bet 10 nil Bet 11 nil Bet 12 nil Bet 13 3.82 Bet 14 nil Total 25.28 points Strike Rate = 35.7% Yield = ((25.28/23) - 1) x 100 = 9.9% Starting bank: 100 points Current bank: 102.28 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners - 14 bets, +9.9% yield Update Sun 27th April Chesterfield were promoted from League Two today. Ajax won the Dutch title. Updated list of teams: * Leicester * Burnley * Wolves * Brentford * Chesterfield * Rochdale * Scunthorpe * Celtic * Bayern * Salzburg * Benfica * Ajax

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners, 14 bets, +9.9% yield Weekend games Sat 3rd and Sun 4th May Sat 3rd May Leicester v Doncaster 1.67/4.5/5.8 Reading v Burnley 2.05/3.6/4.15 Wolves - Carlisle 1.5/5.0/8.0 Brentford - Stevenage 1.46/5.25/8.2 Chesterfield - Fleetwood Town 1.85/3.65/4.8 Newport - Rochdale 3.75/3.5/2.15 Scunthorpe - York 1.95/3.75/4.3 Celtic - Aberdeen 1.45/4.6/10.0 Hamburger - Bayern Munich 8.0/5.6/1.5 Ajax - NEC 1.25/8.0/15.0 Sun 4th May Salzburg - Ried 1.2/7.9/18.0

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners, 14 bets, +9.9% yield I've come up with four bets for tomorrow, Saturday 3rd May - opposing Brentford, Chesterfield, Scunthorpe and Bayern. Brentford - Stevenage Brentford take on already relegated Stevenage. Stevenage won last week, and I just feel they might get a surprise result here. Stevenage's recent shots on target stats aren't much worse than Brentford's. BET 15 Brentford - Stevenage Stevenage or Draw 3.0 BetVictor Stake: 2 points Chesterfield - Fleetwood Town I think this is Chesterfield's first game following their promotion. Fleetwood's recent shots on target stats compare well with Chesterfield's. They look reasonable value here to me. BET 16 Chesterfield - Fleetwood Town Fleetwood +0.5 2.17 188Bet Stake: 2 points Scunthorpe - York Scunthorpe's first game following their promotion. York's recent shots on target stats are similar to Scunthorpe's and they might just be some value here. BET 17 Scunthorpe - York York +0.5 1.86 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points Hamburg - Bayern Munich Hamburg are in the relegation zone and desparate for points. Bayern have a good record here. Will Bayern bounce back after being eliminated from the Champions League, or will they have trouble motivating themselves against a side hungry for a result? Half stake on this one. BET 18 Hamburg - Bayern Munich Hamburg or Draw 3.25 Bet365 Stake: 1 point

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners, 14 bets, +9.9% yield Results of Bets 15-18 BET 15 Brentford - Stevenage Stevenage or Draw 3.0 BetVictor Stake: 2 points Result: Brentford 2 Stevenage 0 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil BET 16 Chesterfield - Fleetwood Town Fleetwood +0.5 2.17 188Bet Stake: 2 points Result: Chesterfield 2 Fleetwood 1 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil BET 17 Scunthorpe - York York +0.5 1.86 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points Result: Scunthorpe 2 York 2 Bet won Stake: 2 points Return: 3.72 points BET 18 Hamburg - Bayern Munich Hamburg or Draw 3.25 Bet365 Stake: 1 point Result: Hamburg 1 Bayern 4 Bet lost Stake: 1 point Return: nil

[MPLouis]

Re: Opposing league winners, 18 bets, -3.3% yield After the weekend's results, I noticed one interesting thing - Benfica and Ajax both drew at home. Both could have been opposed for odds of around 4.0. The interesting thing it that I think this was both sides' first home game following confirmation of winning the title. This seems to be a pattern and offers some of the best odds - teams failing to win their FIRST home game following a title win.