MPLouis Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 For some time, I've noticed that teams who have won the league have unexpectedly poor results afterwards. There were at least THREE examples today (Saturday 29th March) - Celtic 1 Ross County 1 Celtic won the Scottish title on Wednesday Pre-match odds for 'Ross County or the Draw' were 5.5 with Bet365 Bayern Munich 3 Hoffenheim 3 Bayern had won the Bundesliga with a win at Hertha Berlin last Tuesday. Pre-match odds for 'Hoffenheim or the Draw' were 5.5 with Bet365 Salzburg 0 Innsbruck 0 Salzburg won the Austrian title last Sunday, and have failed to win the two games since then Pre-match odds for 'Innsbruck or the Draw' were 8.5 with Paddy Power Source for historic odds: oddsportal I don't think this strategy is a guaranteed money-maker. I've seen cases where teams win the league, and just keep winning. But I've seen enough cases of teams tailing off after winning the league to make me think there might well be value in following this strategy - the odds tend to be very long, so not many winners would be needed to turn a profit. It will take quite a bit of time and research, and the bets will naturally only be available towards the end of a season. That means there should be a number of opportunities in European leagues between now and the end of May. Starting bank: 100 points Level stakes: 2 points per bet unless otherwise advised Sun 19th April 2015 Note: Thread title changed to 'Opposing 'just promoted' teams' which is what I am now doing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 Re: Opposing a team which has won the league Sounds like an interesting experiment mate, good luck with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted March 30, 2014 Author Share Posted March 30, 2014 Re: Opposing a team which has won the league Greek Super League Olympiakos v Aris 17.30 today (Sorry for short notice) OK - I was looking at the odds for this game in Greece and noticed that Olympiakos have already won the Greek title, and their results have slipped recently. Aris are already relegated, so there's nothing riding on this game. At very long odds on Aris, it looks a good candidate for the first bet on this thread. Olympiakos' home form has been very good this season, and Aris' away form has been very poor. Olympiakos have outscored their opponents by an average of 2.3 goals this season, and Aris have been outscored in away games by an average of just over 1 goal. The average of these two numbers i 2.3 + 1.0 = 3.3/2 = 1.65. So you could say Olympiakos might be expected to beat Aris by 1.65 goals on average. In their last 5 meetings at Olympiakos' ground, the average margin has been +1.2. I think the handicap odds are attractive ... Bet 1 Olympiakos v Aris Aris +2.5 1.98 BetVictor Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted March 30, 2014 Author Share Posted March 30, 2014 Re: Opposing a team which has won the league Bet 1 Olympiakos v Aris Aris +2.5 1.98 BetVictor Stake: 2 points Result: Olympiakos 1 Aris 0 Bet won :ok Stake: 2 points Return: 3.96 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted March 31, 2014 Author Share Posted March 31, 2014 Re: Opposing a team which has won the league I've looked through the major Western European leagues (I'm leaving out Eastern Europe, because I find the leagues there harder to understand). So far, I'm looking at: England Premier, Championship, One and Two Scotland Premiership Top divisions in: Germany Spain Portugal France Italy Holland Austria Switzerland Greece The Scottish Premiership ends next Saturday 6th April and the Greek Super League ends on Sunday 13th April. The other leagues end in May (mostly the weekends of 10th/11th and 17th/18th) Including Greece means we have FOUR winners so far: * Celtic * Olympiakos * Bayern * Salzburg Others should join the list in the next few weeks. It would be possible to extend the idea to include promoted clubs (not just champions) and do it the other way around by backing already relegated clubs. But I'm going to stick to 'Champions' at the moment. That way, we'll tend to get bigger prices on their opponents :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kreator88 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Re: Opposing a team which has won the league just my 2 cents... did you have a look on last years results ... there are several livescore channels which show odds and standings from last years (for example flashscore) and won"t take a lot of research time... I find your idea interesting and might test last years by myself but in case you have already done it ...let me know :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted March 31, 2014 Author Share Posted March 31, 2014 Re: Opposing a team which has won the league just my 2 cents... did you have a look on last years results ... there are several livescore channels which show odds and standings from last years (for example flashscore) and won"t take a lot of research time... I find your idea interesting and might test last years by myself but in case you have already done it ...let me know :D No I haven't back-tested it, or taken a detailed look at previous results. The idea came from noticing how often teams which have just won the league lose their next game. Maybe I'll have a look at previous years if I have time. If you want to do that, any information would be welcome :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted March 31, 2014 Author Share Posted March 31, 2014 Re: Opposing a team which has won the league OK I just had a quick look at last season (2012-13) and the final results of Man United (Premier League winners) and Cardiff (Championship) and they were both pretty poor compared with the rest of their season. For example, Manchester United won the league on 22nd April 2013 when they beat Aston Villa 3-0 at Old Trafford. Their four results after they won the league were: Arsenal 1 Man United 1 Man United 0 Chelsea 1 Man United 2 Swansea 1 West Brom 5 Man United 5 So, one win, two draws and one defeat ... http://uk.soccerway.com/teams/england/manchester-united-fc/662/matches/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Re: Opposing a team which has won the league Just a quick point, I'm not sure if you know or not, but the Scottish Premiership doesn't finish next weekend, it splits into a top 6/bottom 6 championship and relegation group, so celtic will still have matches after next week, but only versus teams from the top 6. Even better suited to your system, I would think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted March 31, 2014 Author Share Posted March 31, 2014 Re: Opposing a team which has won the league Just a quick point' date=' I'm not sure if you know or not, but the Scottish Premiership doesn't finish next weekend, it splits into a top 6/bottom 6 championship and relegation group, so celtic will still have matches after next week, but only versus teams from the top 6. Even better suited to your system, I would think.[/quote'] Thanks for the info - I don't really understand that split actually. I do know Celtic were widely reported as having won the league title. What's the point of this end of season split? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 1, 2014 Author Share Posted April 1, 2014 Re: Opposing a team which has won the league Thanks for the info - I don't really understand that split actually. I do know Celtic were widely reported as having won the league title. What's the point of this end of season split? OK, I've just read a bit about it - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Premiership So Celtic will play five more games, against each other team in the top six. It's like a special extension to the season. As Celtic are 26 points ahead of Aberdeen, who have 7 games left (2 pre-split and 5 post-split) Celtic can't be caught. But 2nd and 3rd places (for Europa League qualification) are still open at the moment, so lots to play for most of the other teams. For the purposes of this thread, it means the 'first phase' of the season ends next weekend, and the second phase has 5 more games, meaning Celtic actually have SIX more games to play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Re: Opposing a team which has won the league A few European leagues do this now. It's basically to add a bit of excitement to end of the season. Makes it harder for a team to win the league, in theory lol, as they have to play the teams at the top end of the table, including any title rivals, in the final run in. And same at the bottom, you need to play the teams around you to try to secure survival. We were all sceptical at first, but it's actually okay. You can actually get the unusual situation of the team in 7th having more points than the team in 6th or 5th after the final game tho haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 1, 2014 Author Share Posted April 1, 2014 Re: Opposing a team which has won the league A few European leagues do this now. It's basically to add a bit of excitement to end of the season. Makes it harder for a team to win the league, in theory lol, as they have to play the teams at the top end of the table, including any title rivals, in the final run in. And same at the bottom, you need to play the teams around you to try to secure survival. We were all sceptical at first, but it's actually okay. You can actually get the unusual situation of the team in 7th having more points than the team in 6th or 5th after the final game tho haha. I know they do it in Belgium. As far as I can see, of the leagues I've shortlisted, only Scotland do it at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Re: Opposing a team which has won the league As I say it may actually benefit your system. Celtic will be playing the team's in the top half of the table. These teams well be better than the lower half clubs, and will still have European qualification to play for, so will be plenty motivated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 4, 2014 Author Share Posted April 4, 2014 Re: Opposing a team which has won the league There are currenlty FOUR teams which have won the league in the countries I am following: * Celtic * Olympiakos * Bayern * Salzburg All four are playing this weekend, with three games on Saturday and one on Sunday. After looking through the games and their opponents, I recommend opposing THREE of the four sides. On general form over the season, it would probably have been a better bet to BACK Salzburg, Bayern and Celtic tomorrow, but the general idea behind this thread is that teams tail off and under-perform after winning a title. I recommend backing the first three underdogs - Grodig, Augsburg and Dundee United. As it happens, all three teams have something to play for. But even if they didn't there's always the big motivating factor of beating the title-winners. For Grodig and Augsburg, the games are also derbies. For the first three games, I have listed handicap odds as well as double chance. Playing Saturday Austria Grodig v Salzburg Grodig or Draw 3.3 Grod +1.5 1.84 With six games left, Grodig are 4th in the league and they have a chance of finishing second or third and qualifying for the Europa League. Their form has been very inconsistent this season. They won at both Rapid and Austria but they've been hammered 6-0 by Sturm Graz and Salzburg. When Salzburg played there last October, they won 3-0 with a hat trick by Mane, and as far as I can see, Salzburg have beaten them every time they've played. It's a local derby, Grodig being a small town on the edge of Salzburg. BET 2 Grodig or Draw 3.3 Marathonbet Stake: 2 points Playing Saturday Germany Augsburg v Bayern Augsburg or Draw 3.25 Augs +1.5 1.81 Augsburg are 8th in the league. With 6 games left, they have an outside chance of finishing in the top 6 and playing the Europa League next season. Bayern have won all seven of their previous games, and by an average margin of about 2 goals. It's a local derby, Augsburg being about 50 miles from Munich. Ahead of the game, Guardiola says "maybe only two or three players in the team will play in the United game" - so there will be a lot of changes, just like last weekend against Hoffenheim. BET 3 Augsburg or Draw 3.25 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Playing Saturday Scotland Dundee Utd v Celtic Dundee Utd or Draw 2.46 Dundee Utd +1AH 1.9 Dundee Utd are 4th and will be trying to finish second for a place in the Europa League. They are six points behind 2nd-placed Aberdeen with 6 games to play. This match against Celtic is their last game of the regular season. The league then splits into two halves and each club plays another five games. BET 4 Dundee Utd or Draw 2.46 Marathonbet Stake: 2 points Playing Sunday Greece Giannina v Olympiakos Giannina or Draw 2.62 Giannina is in Ioannina in Northern Greece near the Albanian border, about 300 miles from Olympiakos' ground near Athens. This is the penultimate game of the season for both clubs. Giannina are 12th on 37 points, 4 points above the relegation zone. So they still need points to be safe. No bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 5, 2014 Author Share Posted April 5, 2014 Re: Opposing a team which has won the league BET 2 (Grodig v Salzburg) Grodig or Draw 3.3 Marathonbet Stake: 2 points Result: Grodig 1 Salzburg 3 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 5, 2014 Author Share Posted April 5, 2014 Re: Opposing a team which has won the league BET 3 (Augsburg v Bayern) Augsburg or Draw 3.25 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Result: Augsburg 1 Bayern 0 Bet won :ok Stake: 2 points Return: 6.5 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 5, 2014 Author Share Posted April 5, 2014 Re: Opposing a team which has won the league BET 4 (Dundee Utd v Celtic) Dundee Utd or Draw 2.46 Marathonbet Stake: 2 points Result: Dundee Utd 0 Celtic 2 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 5, 2014 Author Share Posted April 5, 2014 Re: Opposing a team which has won the league Summary so far FOUR bets, stake 2 points each Total stake: 8 points Returns Bet 1 - 3.96 Bet 2 - nil Bet 3 - 6.5 Bet 4 - nil Total - 10.46 points Strike Rate = 50% Yield = 30.75% Starting bank: 100 points Current bank: 102.46 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 5, 2014 Author Share Posted April 5, 2014 Re: Opposing a team which has won the league - FOUR bets, +30.75% yield My comments: 2 losses and a win today, but still a profit on the day because of the high odds opposing Bayern. As far as I could see, Celtic and Salzburg deserved their wins, and Augsburg deserved to beat Bayern. Although, like last week, Guardiola fielded a 'weakened team' they would still be expected to beat most German sides. But watching a bit of the game, Augsburg just seemed to have more purpose and determination. I think it was the first time they've beaten Bayern. A good yield from the first four bets is encouraging, but I'm not going to get carried away - not yet anyway! Lots more opportunities between now and the end of the European season, but I think it will be important to be fairly selective and also try to hunt or wait for the best odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 6, 2014 Author Share Posted April 6, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners - FOUR bets, +30.75% yield I've shortened the thread title to "Opposing league winners" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soccerschurl Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners - FOUR bets, +30.75% yield I did not look too deep into this, but you should probably not do this with Bundesliga winner. Bayern 21/13: 5-1-0 after winning (the draw was against Dortmund, so probably not the best odds) Dortmund 11/12: 2-0-0 after winning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 7, 2014 Author Share Posted April 7, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners - FOUR bets, +30.75% yield I did not look too deep into this, but you should probably not do this with Bundesliga winner. Bayern 21/13: 5-1-0 after winning (the draw was against Dortmund, so probably not the best odds) Dortmund 11/12: 2-0-0 after winning Thanks for the comment and information. I suspect there is a big difference between teams and leagues. So I'm not too surprised to see those stats saying the Bundesliga leaders in the last 2 seasons carried on winning games after they won the title. I'll try to research each bet rather than just oppose every 'winner'. Ironically, the one I left out this weekend (Olympiakos) lost :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rook Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners - FOUR bets, +30.75% yield Have you considered adding in teams that have achieved automatic promotion ? For example Leicester in the English Championship. They technically probably still want to win the league but got belted by Brighton last weekend after securing promotion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 11, 2014 Author Share Posted April 11, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners - FOUR bets, +30.75% yield Have you considered adding in teams that have achieved automatic promotion ? For example Leicester in the English Championship. They technically probably still want to win the league but got belted by Brighton last weekend after securing promotion. Yes I have :ok Although the title is 'Opposing league winners', opposing a team like Leicester that has already won promotion follows the same line of thinking - that teams often relax after they've achieved their objective. In previews of Leicester's game against Brighton, Leicester were saying 'now let's win the title' but it sounds as though Brighton were more focussed on the game itself. Odds matter a lot of course, so I'm going to try to take them into account rather than just mechanically opposing every 'winner'. Towards the end of the European seasons, there will be a long list of title and promotion winners, so I think it will be much more manageable if I'm selective. Unfortunately, by being 'selective' last weekend I missed out on opposing Olympiakos, which would have been a big winner :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 11, 2014 Author Share Posted April 11, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners - FOUR bets, +30.75% yield Friday 5th April 2014 Weekend preview Note: I am adding teams which have been promoted in the countries and leagues I am following. Leicester is the first of these, having been promoted from the Championship last week. Including promoted teams, there are currently FIVE teams which have won the league or promotion in the countries I am following (where the league is still going). * Celtic * Olympiakos * Bayern * Salzburg * Leicester Celtic aren't playing this weekend, they resume with the 'Championship group' involving the top 6 sides next Saturday 19th April. Bayern and Salzburg are playing on Saturday, Olympiakos have their last game of the season on Sunday and Leicester play on Monday evening. Matches, odds and recommendations to follow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 12, 2014 Author Share Posted April 12, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners - FOUR bets, +30.75% yield Here are my bets for Saturday's games: Odds from oddsportal Playing Saturday Salzburg v Sturm Graz 1/2/x odds: 1.26/7.5/17.0 Sturm or Draw 5.0 BetVictor/Paddy Power 1st v 7th 5 games to go Salz have won the league. Sturm are safe from relegation. Both clubs are still in the Austrian cup. There's little doubt that Salzburg are a much better team but I've seen some evidence of them easing off since winning the title, and Sturm might be motivated to try to get something against the champions. Half of normal stake on this one (1 point only) BET 5 Sturm or Draw 5.0 BetVictor/Paddy Power Stake: 1 point Playing Saturday Bayern v Dortmund 1/2/x odds: 1.5/5.4/7.9 Dortmund or Draw 3.0 Bet365 1st v 2nd 5 games to go Bayern have won the league. Dortmund are looking near-certain to finish in the top three for a Champions League place. Both clubs are in the semi finals of the German cup this week. Bayern are in the Champions League semi final later in the month against Real Madrid, who eliminated Dortmund on Tuesday. There's nothing on this game, but it is a big game nevertheless. There's a chance Dortmund might be more motivated to get something here. BET 6 Dortmund or Draw 3.0 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 12, 2014 Author Share Posted April 12, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners - FOUR bets, +30.75% yield Here are my bets for Sunday and Monday games (odds from oddsportal) - Playing Sunday Olympiakos v Apollon Smirnis 1/2/x odds: 1.36/5.9/10.5 Smirnis or Draw 3.75 MarathonBet 1st v 15th It's the last day of the season for both clubs. Olympiakos have wrapped up the league. Smirnis are just above the relegation zone, and might need something from this game to avoid relegation, depending on how the clubs below them do tomorrow). Olympiakos have the second leg of the cup semi-final to look forward to on Wednesday too. Smirnis are based in Athens not far from Olympiakos, so it's a derby game. They've had some good results recently, with two wins and a draw against higher-ranked sides. Olympiakos beat Apollon 5-0 in the away game earlier in the season. If they play up to their standard set this season, they could be in for another big win. The two sides below Apollon - Veria and Xanthi - are both at home tomorrow. If either of them win - and they are both favourites to do so, Apollon would need to win themselves to escape the relegation places. So the pressure will be on Apollon tomorrow. A point might be enough, if the other results go the right way. I'm going to go for a half-stake bet on Apollon or Draw tomorrow ... BET 7 Smirnis or Draw 3.75 MarathonBet Stake: 1 point Playing Monday Reading v Leicester 1/2/x odds: 3.1/3.6/2.5 Reading +0.5 1.64 Pinnacle (NB: ODDS TOO LOW - SEE BELOW) Reading are just outside the playoff places, 2 points below Brighton with 5 games to play. Leicester are already promoted and will probably win the Championship even if they lose this game, as they are 6 points above Burnley. Reading's home form has been poor and it's hard to see which way this game will go. At 1.64, the odds on opposing Leicester are TOO LOW to recommend, so my decision is 'no bet'. I have found that you seem to get odds of between 2.5 and 5.0 or more on opposing winners, so 1.64 is just not acceptable. NO BET Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 12, 2014 Author Share Posted April 12, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners - FOUR bets, +30.75% yield UPDATE Sat 12th April Wolves were promoted from League One today, so they join the list of teams to consider opposing. This useful page from the BBC website shows the latest promotion and relegation positions in England and Scotland ... http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/26657763 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 13, 2014 Author Share Posted April 13, 2014 Re: Opposing league winners - FOUR bets, +30.75% yield Results: BET 5 Salzburg v Sturm Graz Sturm or Draw 5.0 BetVictor/Paddy Power Stake: 1 point Result: Salzburg 1 Sturm 2 Bet won :ok Stake: 1 points Return: 5 points BET 6 Bayern v Dortmund Dortmund or Draw 3.0 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Result: Bayern 0 Dortmund 3 Bet won :ok Stake: 2 points Return: 6 points BET 7 Olympiakos v Apollon Smirnis Smirnis or Draw 3.75 MarathonBet Stake: 1 point Result: Olympiakos 1 Apollon Smirnis 0 Bet lost Stake: 1 points Return: 0 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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