BBOTD Sunday 2nd February

[Lodge]

3.30 - Musselburgh - Runswick Royal 1pt @ 12/1 Paddypower Runswick Royal is a horse who i felt was a bit of an eye-catcher after his most recent run. It came over this C&D last month in similar conditions as he is likely to encounter tomorrow. He’s a horse who has struggled this season because of his strong form in decent company at the end of last season, being allotted and opening mark 145 is never going to be easy to pick up races. He has continued to run creditably this season though and now down to a mark in the high 130’s, with conditions likely to suit, i fancy him to go well. He was well backed before to his last run, opening up at around 25/1 in an equally competitive race and going off a 17/2 shot. He looked like he was struggling very badly at one stage and even hit 1000 in running on Betfair, prior to staying on in testing conditions and looking like going close 2 out. He was beaten 7L back in 4th eventually, by a couple in this field who re-oppose on worse terms. He’s been dropped 1lb by the handicapper and continues to have the services of a decent 7lb claimer onboard, plus with this race being a 0-150 event he’ll get to carry less weight tomorrow than he did lto which may benefit him. There is the suggestion that a step up in trip may suit him but the fact his yard have persisted at 2m and that ground is likely to be testing suggest to me he is fully capable at this distance. He does have a little work to do on that recent form to beat Strongpoint and Local Hero but has 7 and a 1lb swing in the weights respectively and he wasn’t beaten that far. Hopefully he’ll travel abit better throughout his race tomorrow and go well at decent odds.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 2nd February 1.00 Musselburgh - Capellanus EW @ 11/1 PaddyPower I'll take a chance on the Brian Ellison trained runner in this despite him running poorly last time out against some of these. I don't think that race was run to suit as he would have preferred a stronger pace but I do think he will get that here with the bigger field. His 2 runs at the track so far over hurdles have been encouraging and I would expect him to be in the thick of things with Denis O'Regan taking over from a 7 lb claimer. Ground and trip are fine and Brian Ellison is the top trainer at the track and his horses must be respected.

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 2nd February P4.10 Carrig Millie e/w 25/1 Bet365 I like the piece of form last year when the horse won a 14 runner chase here when staying on really well over a 3 furlong shorter trip. The style of that run would suggest that this trip might bring about even further improvement. The horse races off only a 4lb higher mark here and I also like the jockey booking. The word soft or heavy appears in all the horses win and placed efforts thus far so the softer the better I would think. That win at the track was the horses only attempt over 3 miles so with a strike rate of 1 from 1, I think the handicapper might have just given this one a chance here.

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 2nd February 17.20 Kempton: Russian Ice @ 11/2 Paddy Power Russian Ice was pretty unlucky three weeks ago here at Kempton when she had to overcome the widest draw but most importantly got badly hampered over 3f out by a shifting horse, She clearly lost momentum at a crucial stage of the race and had to find her rhythm again, what she did eventually when she finished strongly in 3rd in the end, which makes this a really good performance. She can race off the same mark again tomorrow, which is 4lb below her last winning mark and with four course and distance wins so far here she should go really well again, with a better draw and hopefully a clear run. It wouldn't take to much to win this.

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 2nd February 1pm musselburgh - Pay the King 1pt win 3/1 paddy power Best efforts have been on good ground , won bumper on it in ireland before joining nicholls so hopefully the ground stays as gd /sft. 6th lto on handicap debut in a competitive race thats worked out well and on same mark. 5lbs out of handicap but derham negates that with claim and being by Kings Theatre i expect this one to see out the 3miles tomorrow.

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 2nd February Sun 2nd Feb 2014 1.50 Kempton (8 runners) Can't be having Dangerous Age who may be on a 4 timer but trainer is 0/42 here last two years and there's every chance he won't be as fit as he should be (all wins have come with 30 days break max). So, will be on old timer TAX FREE who as we know was formerly a smart performer and who won over C&D in December off 83. Was upped to Cl3 for next two starts and never showed up, but back to a Cl4 now (31114171 at this level) and could run a big race. TAX FREE 1pt WIN @ 8/1 (BOG BetVictor)

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 2nd February 2:30 Musselbrough - Clarcam Gordon Elliot has 4 runners out today; three over in Ireland and this one. He's sent 26 runners to Musselbrough over the years and ten have been winners (4 in 15 hurdlers) and the lightly raced Clarcam has already competed in group races over the smaller obstacles. Maguire has had a 50% hurdle win rate (8 wins) with the trainer over the past year and statistically looks to be the strongest jockey in this race. 9/2 Coral

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 2nd February Punchestown 4:10 Popcorn is an appealing price here at 12/1 for Willie Mullins & Ruby Walsh combo. The very lightly raced 11 year old has only had 10 career runs to date, winning three of those. He is taking a huge step up in trip here but is off a decent mark if he does get the trip. He enjoys heavy ground which is important, his form on heavy reads 1-2-2-1-6, Ruby would have had the pick of the three so I think he is worth a bet at the prices. The trip might bring out improvement. Popcorn WIN @ 12/1 Coral

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 2nd February 230 Musselburgh: Broughton 5/4 bet365 A novice that went on to my list after finishing second to Fox Norton in a Grade 2 race at Doncaster on debut. That alone should be adequate here but will hopefully have improved for the experience. The track and ground will be ideal as he won't be overloaded with stamina being a 10f horse on the flat. Obviously any Henderson novice has to be respected travelling up her so the price has been kept sensible with Adeupas D'ycy in the field.

[jinxy]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 2nd February Big Shu 3.40 Punch 11/4 bet365 course form reads 2/1/1/F/2/1 and has won over CD. Has winning form on Heavy ground and has top jock P Carberry in the saddle.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 2nd February 1600 musselburgh 1 pt win penmore mill 4/1 betvic he 3rd hunters chase in 4 days after months without one, so i will dabble since i have the chance,this 9 year old gelding has won his last 3 hunter chases and was runner up in the run before,i think the ground may have been too soft for him when he was 2nd,and todays conditions may be slighter better for him, regular jockey on board again

[joeblitz]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 2nd February 1.40 Punchestown Chancol 8/11 Paddy Power BOG Chancol, a bumper winner at Navan on g/y in December has run twice over hurdles on heavy finishing 4th in a good maiden at Leopardstown before falling at the 6th last month at Navan against a well regarded Mullins horse. Well backed on both hurdle outings, he should prove better than what he has shown so far. This is his chance as Pink Hat is far better on drier ground and I wouldn't be having her today on this ground after her poor run here last month on similar ground. 1 point win for nap purposes Chancol BOG

[Irishbugger]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 2nd February 5.20pm @ Kempton 'Bajan Bear' 5/1 (Coral) Given an awful ride 2 starts back by Martin Harley and got going too late last time under Probert, i'm happy to see Adam Kirby up today. Horse looks competitively weighted, having gone close on both those runs and with the right pace to chase which it should get and ridden a little closer can finish best of these and take this, especially ith the extra furlong looking perfect. 1 point win

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 2nd February

1.00 Musselburgh - Capellanus EW @ 11/1 PaddyPower I'll take a chance on the Brian Ellison trained runner in this despite him running poorly last time out against some of these. I don't think that race was run to suit as he would have preferred a stronger pace but I do think he will get that here with the bigger field. His 2 runs at the track so far over hurdles have been encouraging and I would expect him to be in the thick of things with Denis O'Regan taking over from a 7 lb claimer. Ground and trip are fine and Brian Ellison is the top trainer at the track and his horses must be respected.

Hummm out to 28/1

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 2nd February 2.00 Muss - Kie -win at 7/2 bog wm hill Comes back from a break with pretty ideal conditions - sharp track, minimum trip, bit of cut but not too soft, Maguire up He's a front runner who should get things his own way up front and he's won off a break before The favourite is the ex-French horse who's highly regarded but faded tamely a couple of weeks ago on his first run for over 400 days.......I'm hoping they've not had enough time to get him race fit and he might need another run or two

[Dund0n]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 2nd February 2.20 Kempton - Exclusive Waters win @ 9/4 Coral This horse has been running fairly well recently in similar contests finishing 5th and 4th in its last two claimers. It performs well at the course with a win, a second and a fifth at the course. The second came over course and distance so the trip should also not be a problem. The trainer isn't in bad form either after having a winner yesterday and this horse should improve his strike rate if running like it has done the last few times it has gone to Kempton.

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD Sunday 2nd February

230 Musselburgh: Broughton 5/4 bet365 A novice that went on to my list after finishing second to Fox Norton in a Grade 2 race at Doncaster on debut. That alone should be adequate here but will hopefully have improved for the experience. The track and ground will be ideal as he won't be overloaded with stamina being a 10f horse on the flat. Obviously any Henderson novice has to be respected travelling up her so the price has been kept sensible with Adeupas D'ycy in the field.

Nice win, travelled really well. Sent from my GT-I9100 using PL Forum