Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November

[BillyHills]

Next big race is the Hennessy on Saturday Latest Decs; (Final Decs Thursday) Weights look set to go up nearly a stone after Tidal Bay withdrawn. :ok

[BillyHills]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November Latest Odds;

[BillyHills]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November My initial thoughts are that it isn't a vintage renewal with Cape Tribulation now set to carry top weight. I'm glad to see Katenko is back and he looked an exciting prospect before he got injured last season, i'm sure he will be fit enough to do himself justice. Triolo D'Alene is my National fancy so will be interested to see how he gets on here and Willie Mullins looks set to send one or two over. I'll have a look at some stats and trends later in the week.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November Really looking forward to this race as I will be there on both the Friday and the Saturday. Looks like it will be a cracking race and without reading the form in much detail, I do think Merry King is a horse heading the right direction and I wouldnt be surprised to see that one run well.

[beaker1]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November The last three winners of the RSA who have competed in the Hennessy that same year have won - Bobsworth, Denman & Trabolgan. lord winderemere won the rsa this year so im going to have a bet on him along with my main fancy rocky creek

[Aidymac]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November Hard to ignore the form of Invictus in my opinion.. Not seen for a good while but when last seen beat Bob's Worth and Silviniaco Conti very easily! If he comes back in that sort of form, I fear for everything else personally. Possible outsider is Katenko who destroyed John's Sprit two runs back.

[jimboc90]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November lord windermere and opening batsman e/w at bigger price for me

[BillyHills]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November Past Winners From the above we cans see; 8/10 Have been aged 6 or 7 7/10 Carried 11st or more 7/10 Started below 7/1 in the betting Also; Last 8 winners have been rated 145 or more 9/10 Winners had won over 3m1f previously :ok

[BillyHills]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November Final Decs;

[who?me?]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November I also followed Katenko until he got injured and would like to see him run well. However he's carrying a lot more weight on Saturday (11-11) and I can't back him. The one I've had an e/w bet on is HOUBLON DES OBEAUX. Good winning prep run at Ascot at the beginning of the month where he beat Merry King. He's not won over 3m1f but has won over 3m & should stay the distance. Weight shouldn't be a problem nor should the ground. Yard are in quite good form at present. A few weeks ago in the Jockey Thread Binchy wrote: "Got to say that Liam Treadwell/Venetia Williams are a lethal combination in Chases and a must follow. Over the last five season their record is 21-56, 38% strike rate, profit of +120.62 to level stakes. Awesome." Just think 16/1 is far too big a price for him.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November Had a good look through the race now and these are my thoughts on the runners. Firstly I will start out with the horses I am ruling out for various reasons. Cape Tribulation & Imperial Commander look to be heading the wrong way down the ratings and whilst the peak of their form gives them both a chance and I cant help but thinking they will both find at least a couple better. The latter has always shown his best form when the mud is flying too. Katenko is a horse I really like last season and I was gutted that he suffered from Colic and missed the festival. I think that is a tough illness to come back from and I am willing to take him on especially on this surface which will be as quick as he has ever ridden on. Prince De Beauchene is a hard horse for me to work out. A lot of his chase starts have been for prep runs for Aintree and that isnt true form IMO. I wouldnt deny that he has a chance of 155 but I cant be confident that he is even fully primed for this race let alone good enough to win it. Cloudy Too doesnt scream out to me as a proper stayer at this trip based on his runs so far. 150 looks very high for what he has achieved as well. Triolo D'Alene falls into this category too. Our Father is a complete unknown and cant be backed with any confidence, Opening Batsmen has now pulled up twice and has something to prove and Terminal has also shown no form since his respectable run in the RSA. Invictus looks to have solid form in bank but he has been off the track for far too long to be a reliable betting proposition. Hadrians Approach could be one I am overlooking a little but I cant be convinced that his jumping will hold out because if he misses one in this company it will be the end of his race. Theatre Guide doesnt have the strongest form, hasnt convinced at the trip and isnt the greatest of jumpers. Highland Lodge made my original shortlist but I just dont think a race of this nature will suit him enough. He has some very interesting early chasing form but he is the type to dominate small fields and he wont be able to do that tomorrow. Whatdoyouthink looks to be making up the numbers. That should leave the following runners who made my final shortlist: Lord Windemere looks a solid proposition. He was improving with every run last season culminating in winning the RSA. He has lots of form tied in with some of the better novice staying chasers in Ireland and this mark may underestimate him. He stayed up the hill at Cheltenham nicely in March so I dont think the extra furlong and a bit will cause any problems. He has a decent record fresh too. Houblon Des Obeaux won nicely at Ascot LTO but has been raised 10lb for that run. He strikes me as a relentless galloper and I would be surprised if something quickened past him coming down the straight as this new mark begins to take its toll. Rocky Creek is a horse I am struggling to get my head around. He was made to look slow at Aintree on good ground and like the horse above, I get the feeling something might just quicken better on the run for the line. Nicholls has been taking his time with him so there could be much more to come. If he was around 16/1 I would probably have a punt but 7/1 looks a bit short. Super Duty is cracking little horse who has run against some good opposition in big races culminating in just being touched off by Same Difference at the festival. I think he has a race off this mark in him and I cant imagine McCain leaving much to work on. I think his mark is workable and he could run a big race at the prices, and if nothing else you should certainly get a run for your money! Same Difference was a very progressive horse last season and whilst I think he is still capable of winning from this mark I do get the feeling that this might just be a little bit too competitive. He ran a stinker at Ascot LTO and he needs to prove that he still has that ability in him especially as he finished last season with two very tough races. Merry King is probably the one I am sweetest on. He has been progressing nicely and was less than a length behind Rolling Aces when they met here last season. He ran a race full of promise on his reappearance behind Houblon Des Obeaux despite not getting the clearest of passages off the turn (by which time the winner had flown). He was staying on nicely at the end and made up a few lengths on the winner and he has only gone up 3lb for that run. Newbury's long straight will help him and he is one that I think has a bit of a kick to put the race to bed. Loch Ba is another who I think is well handicapped but I cant help feeling this is a step too far and I would expect to see him outclassed. Good luck for whoever you are on and lets hope its a good race and they all come back safe and sound!

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November Timmy Murphy has an injury and will now not ride Our Father. Hope he gets well soon, he's one of the very best jumps men around.

[BillyHills]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November I think the front few are all too short to get involved for one reason or another and most of them have plenty to prove at this level. Taking 7/1 or 8/1 about anything lacks appeal in a very competitive race if not the best renewal quality wise. Last year we were looking at Gold Cup contenders and somehow i don't think the likes of Bobs Worth and Sir Des Champs have anything to worry about here. I'm surprised Katenko is still on offer at 14/1 (bet365), maybe thats a bad thing but i cant help think of his impressive form before his injury and the trainer has taken her time with him to make sure he is 100% sound. For me he must be in with a shout and is the class horse in the race in my opinion. I saw Triolo D'Alene (20/1 BetVic) win at Huntingdon last season and he was a striking individual, he jumps for fun and has that bit of class about him. A big horse and this track will suit his galloping style and wouldn't surprise me to see him involved at a decent price. Both Super Duty (16/1 Coral) and Same Difference (33/1 Betfred) battled out a tight finish at the Festival last season and i think both will be suited by this type of race with lots of runners and where both stamina and jumping are crucial, again two decent chasers at a much more appealing price than some of the runners who have questions to answer. Fascinating race in store and will have small ew bets, f/c and t/c on the four mentioned for a bit of interest. Good luck all:ok

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November Already won here at Newbury ''16th Jan 2013'' running over the 3m in soft ground with 11-7 and he won well, U/R at the festival in the JLT so we will never know, ''but was fancied'' 5th at Aintree but looked like he hated the place but still stayed on his feet under jockey Andrew Thornton ''that was his first time up'' Mr Channon sent him out on the 13th Nov where he finished 2nd, not a bad effort and would have polished him up nice for today, runs today off a tasty looking weight of 10-1 Jockey Rocky Balboa in the saddle again for the unlucky for some 13th time, it's Mick Channon's sole runner, if the duo can beat the likes of Cue Card with Somersby, then anything is possible. Loch Ba - E/w Bet @ 20/1 Betfred or 18/1 Hills - i see a few firms paying first 5 home, but not Hills & BF And a wee E/W Bet from the Heart on an old Pal that brung a few good times, Imperial Commander.

[who?me?]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November

I saw Triolo D'Alene (20/1 BetVic) win at Huntingdon last season and he was a striking individual, he jumps for fun and has that bit of class about him. A big horse and this track will suit his galloping style and wouldn't surprise me to see him involved at a decent price.

Great call.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November Brilliant BH! :notworthy

[Trotter]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November Well done BH ! Personally I thought the race was a bit of a let down because I'd never heard of the winner until today.........I think you need a bit of back-story, a bit of context, to make the big races meaningful. And it certainly helps if you have a grasp on who the contenders are, what they've done, what they represent, ..........an unknown horse winning a big race just diminishes it a bit for me......

[Stevet1859]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November Great stuff BH :clap cracking price

[BillyHills]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November

Well done BH ! Personally I thought the race was a bit of a let down because I'd never heard of the winner until today.........I think you need a bit of back-story, a bit of context, to make the big races meaningful. And it certainly helps if you have a grasp on who the contenders are, what they've done, what they represent, ..........an unknown horse winning a big race just diminishes it a bit for me......

He did win the Topham over the National fences? Maybe last year we were spoilt Trotter?

[Aidymac]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November

Well done BH ! Personally I thought the race was a bit of a let down because I'd never heard of the winner until today.........I think you need a bit of back-story, a bit of context, to make the big races meaningful. And it certainly helps if you have a grasp on who the contenders are, what they've done, what they represent, ..........an unknown horse winning a big race just diminishes it a bit for me......

Beat Walkon in the Topham at Aintree. Hardly unknown Trotter. Well done Graham, great call, and I didn't fancy him one bit,

[last minute winner]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November Excellent shout that Billy hills. Is there still any value left in backing him for the national come April? The trouble for me with these big staying chasers is there isn't many races around in the calendar to go for, the horse looked all about stamina yesterday and between now and Aintree you can only name a couple of races left for him to run in which leaves you with the problem of trying to offset keeping his mark low enough with keeping him fit for the national.

[Trotter]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November oops........looks like my ignorance has been exposed..........:lol I've not been paying as much attention as I used to........:spank

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November

Excellent shout that Billy hills. Is there still any value left in backing him for the national come April? The trouble for me with these big staying chasers is there isn't many races around in the calendar to go for, the horse looked all about stamina yesterday and between now and Aintree you can only name a couple of races left for him to run in which leaves you with the problem of trying to offset keeping his mark low enough with keeping him fit for the national.

I doubt he will go to Aintree now considering that will have blown his mark sky high (which Henderson alluded too in his interview after the race). I'm not really sure what they will do with him now.

[last minute winner]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November

I doubt he will go to Aintree now considering that will have blown his mark sky high (which Henderson alluded too in his interview after the race). I'm not really sure what they will do with him now.

Im sure Henderson has said in the past that the horses long term target would be Aintree. Maybe im getting it confused with something else. Maybe they'll wait till the season after this but that would seem absurd imo.

[BillyHills]

Re: Key Race: Hennessy Gold Cup, 3.00 Newbury, Sat. 30th November Apparently Geraghty had told him to look after his mark as he thought he was a real National sort, having already won around the National fences i fully agree. As BB said Henderson let slip that plan yesterday and now he will be raised about 10lbs for that i would think (if not more). I think it may not be so bad as they think as if something like Long Run/Tidal Bay is entered then most of the field will be just about be out of the handicap anyway so if he carries 11st or something he would still have a terrific chance. Still a very young horse so they may wait a year, who knows. He could go for the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown instead this year and run in Listed races in the meantime to protect the mark a bit, the handicappers tend not to react so swiftly to those that run and get beat in Graded races,(thinking of Argento at Cheltenham or Denman Chase back at Newbury) and of course if he happens to win one then they will have a better horse on their hands than they thought.