Jimmy2shoes Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 What's keeping you flat boys ? almost a week to go so lets get a shift on. Always been a massive fan of this race but the last few years have not been kind, Soo who wins ? who's hot ? who's not ? It's been said many times and not just by me, he's a jockey i simply cant catch, but does this man have something to prove, not just to himself, but it would be a pleasure watching him celebrate on the soil that banned him, i cant see another jockey in the field that will want this race more than, Mr Lanfranco Dettori. Could Lady lucky be looking down on him come Sunday the 6th of Oct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 Looks a great race this year, highly competitive, even though Orfevre is clearly the horse to beat in my mind, but too short for me in the betting. I really like Flintshire, also the Japanese Kizuna looks very smart considering the way he won the trial and the Japanese Derby, but might find it difficult with his late running style. To be honest, in terms of betting, I really want to wait what the ground will be like. If it's fast than Flintshire is probably my selection on current prices, as 12/1 looks to big. But you wouldn't want to have money on him if it is slow ground. I think the most solid bet is probably Novellist. I have little doubt that he will finish in the money. But not favouring e/w betting myself and certainly not at 6/1. Treve looked impressive in her trial but I wonder if she had a too hard race so close to the Arc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted September 28, 2013 Author Share Posted September 28, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 Been watching lots of old races on YT etc, some of the camera work in France is shocking, its like the field is being followed by a camera-man riding a 2ft tall Kangaroo. Anybody know what the total runners allowed is ? ground and draw also looks key. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishbugger Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 Think the fav is a calamity, even at 2s it looks value to me! That siad, I agree with the first post sentiment, would love to see Frankie do it, I love the man. 17 years today ..... (I backed 6 of them ..... went off him in the last haha!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toast Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 Firstly, this years renewal looks better than last years. Secondly, it's usually simple to narrow down the possible winners. Best place to look, is for a horse that's won a group 1 by 2 lengths or more that season. Im on Novellist at 6/1 and Intello at 14s. Novellist, is being underrated, now won 3 group 1s on the trot, without fuss, whilst Intello is a saver. He's a 10f horse to my eyes, but Fabre knows far more than me, can't understand why he's not gone his usual Niel/Arc route. Thought he would have been a cert for the champion stakes. Treve is another for the list, but having only run 4 times is putting me off. The Fugue will get a good coat of looking at on the day for Pari Mutuel purposes, providing the ground is no worse than good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/8951547/prospect-of-rain-for-longchamp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 Spent hours studying this race and if am honest will be glad when its over, they say you should ALWAYS go with your gut feeling, not sure why but i keep returning to Ryan Moore and Ruler of the World. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 Not looking great for Frankie, taken to Hospital with ankle injury. http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/8952949/dettori-sustains-ankle-injury Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radelnblueangel Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 I have the feeling Leading Light is one you really have to consider. LTO was such a strong form. I was waiting last race to make a poss bet and noticed that Leading Light had very strong support into favouritism. Had no real Uk form yet, so i watched the horses walking in the ring to see what Leading Light looks like. All I can say its a monster of a horse. One of the best ive seen this season despite Kingman over his distance. All know how Leading Light hacked up in Donnie then. After hearing about the Arc entry i rewatched the race, because there are rumours that Leading Light is no turn of foot horse, but there are several things that let me say this one is very good. First the big similarity to Montjeu in every way how Leading Light races. 2. The physical constitution of it. 3. Galileo Rock is for me a very decent horse to compare the form against. 4. I think the win is underestimated, all contenders quickened quite strong, so it looks visual as Leading Light is moving slowly to the front, but that was pretty strong in my view, diff than Novellists contenders in Ascot for example. Leading Light went in Doncaster from the front and stayed on in this way, alone this point is also very seldom on this track.5. I think the Irish fancy this big time and 20/1 is for me very big indeed. On Soft ground im looking out for the Fugue 50/1 as place chance. Is this small horse with turn of foot that lifts the front legs for a deep ground challenge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 fractured ankle confirmed for Frankie.............misses rest of season Thierry Jarnet gets ride on Treve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corky Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 thats some spare ride for thierry, bad luck for frankie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 thats some spare ride for thierry' date=' bad luck for frankie[/quote'] Would be painful even more should he sit and watch his ''missed ride'' Win, such bad luck for him, weird thing luck, down right strange at times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 Going to keep it nice and simple this year. As long as he gets a good draw, I will be backing the Japanese horse Orfevre. So unlucky in the race last year when drawn in the car park, hopefully he will be better drawn this year and the ground won't turn too testing. The Japanese deserve a win in this race having been unlucky in recent years. The main danger is Treve but wouldn't be surprised to see the likes of Intello, Flintshire or Ruler of the World run well. Don't really fancy Novelist at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 Going to keep it nice and simple this year. As long as he gets a good draw' date=' I will be backing the Japanese horse Orfevre. So unlucky in the race last year when drawn in the car park, hopefully he will be better drawn this year and the ground won't turn too testing. The Japanese deserve a win in this race having been unlucky in recent years. The main danger is Treve but wouldn't be surprised to see the likes of Intello, Flintshire or Ruler of the World run well. Don't really fancy Novelist at all.[/quote'] Novelist is a bit of a fly in the ointment + how many times have we all watched Johnny M stick in a Big weekend winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PISSAH Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 Every time I look at this race I keep coming up with a different horse. I am with jimmy2shoes on this "cant wait till its all over", and I took his tip to go with my first gut feeing INTELLO @12s. I don't know if this is a good thing or bad thing. What I do know is that this is one of the best arc de Triomphe that I have come across since Sea The Stars won it, I am really looking forward to the race but be glad when the studying is over its doing me head in. Best of luck everybody your going to need it to pick the winner of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeblitz Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 Very unoriginal but I like Orfevre who should have won last year but for going too soon and looked just as good when winning lto. The 3 year olds look modest this year apart from Treve and it is the only 3yo I would consider but has it to do to beat Orfevre Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 In group races I've been finding that simply going with the highest earner can uncover lots of winners. Orfevre is miles in front, and so shall be sticking a couple of quid on the Japanese raider. 5/2 at present with several bookies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toast Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 Novellist is a non runner:(. Hopefully rerouted to Japan cup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted October 5, 2013 Author Share Posted October 5, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 I liked the idea of Frankie taking this on Frog Soil, but what a shame he cant make it now, spent ''many'' hours watching all the runners old races, ''some just on racing silks because of the language'' Treve could bite me on the backside BUT am going for one of the ''Sir's'' in racing, Sir Ryan Moore on Ruler of the world. The price looks to big and this race with the large field might just bring out the best in him, he has a good draw coming out gate 6, he's a 3' year old and they have a great history in the race, Mr O'Brien has been a little hush hush about him ''Very shrewd'' if you ask me. Out all day so wont see the race till night time, so best of luck folks in your selection, LOOKS a CRACKER. Ruler of the World for me. Yaaaa! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 Orfevre has plenty going for him, the Japanese 5yo was a close second in this last year and many good judges thought he was very unlucky as he had to come from stall 18 and very nearly pulled it off. The opposition maybe a little stronger tis time round but a much more favourable stall position should see him bang there with every chance. His latest run over course and distance was very impressive and it will take a good one to lower his colours this year. Selection: 5pts Orfevre 2/1 >Paddy Power 1pt EW Leading Light 14/1 >BetVictor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wistful Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 I fancy both Kizuna and Ruler of the World. I would have preferred a single figure draw for Kizuna but 11 is not too bad. ROTW has a great draw. I have watched the Prix Niel on Youtube and the form looks solid. Ocovango is 3/4 length back in 3rd and ROTW beat him by 2 lengths at Epsom. Ocovango was unlucky not to be a bit closer at Epsom so the form stands up well. I've also watched Kizuna's win in the Japan Derby and he comes with a great late rattle. Puts me in mind of Lammtarra's Epsom Derby win. Three year olds have a great record over the older horses in the Arc. These two came 1st and 2nd in the best Arc trial over C&D and they are both towards the head of the market. The ground looks OK for both. ROTW disappointed in the Irish Derby on ground that may have been too firm. The going in the Prix Niel was soft. I backed both horses each way with RaceBets yesterday. Kizuna 9/1 and ROTW 12/1. I've also had a reverse forecast with vc.bet. Of course the favourite Orfevre could well sluice home and was unlucky last year. But 9/4 is a bit tight in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 i'm told pricewise has tipped pirika at 100 odds have halved bookies go best priced 40 50 on betfair will probably shorten again tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lodge Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 I don't normally get excited by the Arc but I can't wait for tomorrows renewal! I've backed Ruler Of The World @ 10/1. I personally feel that price provides a fair bit of value. He is well drawn, which obviously isn't impossible to win from a wide draw but it does make it harder and the fact he is drawn 6 with a number of his market rivals drawn wide certainly gives him an advantage. He won the Derby so boasts a very high level of form even if it wasn't the best renewal of the race. I'm willing to forgive his run in the Irish derby especially after his very good 2nd last time out in the Prix Niel, he was finishing very strongly after not quite getting the breaks in the race and I feel he'll overturn the form with Kizuna. He has a great jockey onboard in Ryan Moore and trainer Aiden O'Brien knows how to train an Arc winner. It's also interesting to note the good record of 3yo's in this contest and that's something else swaying me towards him. He's proven over the distance, the soft ground won't hinder him and at 10/1 I reckon he'll give a good run for my money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 last 10 winners drawn as follows: 6 2 8 6 1 6 4 6 5 14 14 was dalakhani who i would say was an exceptional winner so last 9 all drawn top 8 take workforce out other 8 drawn 1-6 leaving: very nice name meandre pirika going somewhere leading light ruler of the world Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waynecoyne Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 last 10 winners drawn as follows: 6 2 8 6 1 6 4 6 5 14 14 was dalakhani who i would say was an exceptional winner so last 9 all drawn top 8 take workforce out other 8 drawn 1-6 leaving: very nice name meandre pirika going somewhere leading light ruler of the world have backed leading light at 16 on betfair pirika at 50 on betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 As the ground turned soft I won't keep up my initial interest in Flintshire. But I'm more than happy to see Leading Light supplemented for the race. I feel he could have the tools to win this years Arc. I don't doubt his speed, as he won a Group 3 over 10f and even though he looks to have a burden of stamina, it is probably very much his laid-back attitude that helped him to be successful over extreme trips. He should be also fine on the ground tomorrow, has a decent draw and while it looks a race with many hold-up horses in the line-up Leading Light won't need to worry about not getting a clear run as he'll be surly right up with the pace. I think he is this type of horse that simply pulls out more and more when challenged and does only what is required to win in the end. Exactly the kind of horse you won't to bet on in the Arc. All the positive facts aside: 888.com offers tremendous 16/1, which is surly way too big, but also the offered 12/1 in general by the other bookies looks still a shade overpriced. Leading Light @ 16/1 - 1pt win 888.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 3:15 Longchamp:Ruler of the World / Leading Light / Intello 6 x 1/2 pt exactas = 3pts staked Selections on the basis of a low draw, age, winning Group form, and ability to handle going and trainers... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 If Orfevre gets a clear run I cannot see anything beating him. Definitely the most visually eye-catching animal in the field, win last time out was effortless. The 5/2 I got in the shop with Powers was a gift in my opinion, should be 6/4 in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 What a filly this Treve is. That is was racing is about, isn't it? Doesn't matter what you bet but to see a horse to produce such a turn of foot to pulverise an outstanding Group 1 field is just stunning to watch and remembers me always what makes this sport so special. Anyone had a wager on her? Couldn't have fancied her myself given her hold-up style and general inexperience in a top class field and a race that is usually rough. But she got a lovely ride you have to say and Jarnet deserved this as he's the man who rode her from the beginning of her career, sat on her in three of her four starts, guiding her also to the great Oaks win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeblitz Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 I agree - a super filly! The trends pointed to the 3 year olds and I overlooked them. I did not want to say anything about those tipping the O Brien horses at the time but if Joseph O' Brien thought they had any chance he would have been in Paris doing 8-11. Instead he rode a maiden winner at Tipperary. He usually rides in France on Arc day. Even with that though I didn't tip the winner and to add insult to injury, opposed him in that maiden he won with a very slow beast indeed! Well done to anyone who stayed loyal to Treve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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