Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013

[bowles10]

Cmon lets get this on, all bets in here please.

[Primevil]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013 As ive said... Double.... Animal Kingdom & Shea Shea..still around 11/2 EW Championship,,9/1 Ante Post Big Easy 12/1 EW Queen Alex Windsor Castle..Original Seletion NR....Now Sleeper King ew 16/1 St James Palace..NO BET Also ew Lucky 15 SHEA SHEA 2/1 Championship 11/2 Big Easy 12/1 Sleeper King 16/1 GL

[BillyHills]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013

2.30 Ascot: Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) (1m) Tremendous race to kick off the five day meeting and it will be a surprise if Animal Kingdom can’t end his career with a another Group 1 victory, he’s 10lbs clear on official ratings and has consistently delivered at this level, he’ll be a very short price to follow in the footsteps of the great Frankel who opened up the fixture in such splendid style twelve months ago. Of the others Gregorian appeals at a big price and may be worth a small each way bet. Selections: 3pts Animal Kingdom 5/6

>Paddy Power 1pt EW Gregorian 18/1 Stan James

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[BillyHills]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013

4.25 Ascot: Coventry Stakes (Group 2) (6f) This looks a decent renewal of the Coventry and it’s impossible to know the strengths of the form with so many of the runners being unexposed. High numbers usually fare best here in these sprints and the two market leaders are drawn 1 and 3 which just adds to the conundrum. Stubbs is the choice of the Ballydoyle trio for jockey Joseph O’Brien but stable mate Sir John Hawkins is much better drawn and represents a bit of value. Riverboat Springs caught the eye at Epsom recently and should like this stiff track and is an alternative selection. Selections: 1pt Sir John Hawkins 13/2

>William Hill 1pt Riverboat Springs 10/1 Coral

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[BillyHills]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013

3.05 Royal Ascot: King’s Stand Stakes (Group 1) (5f) Mouth-watering contest in store for the King’s Stand Stakes, favourite Shea Shea doesn’t look much value in a very competitive sprint and would sooner look elsewhere for the winner. I like Reckless Abandon and thought he was unfortunate at Haydock and will be spot on here now having that run under his belt. At bigger prices I’ll take a chance on Pearl Secret who makes his first start of the season and is the one horse with scope to improve this year. Selections: 2pts Reckless Abandon 6/1

>Betfred 1pt Pearl Secret 14/1 >William Hill

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[BillyHills]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013

3.45 Royal Ascot: St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1) (1m) Probably the most interesting race of the day where many questions will be answered surrounding the favourite Dawn Approach. On his Guineas form he should take this without too much fuss, on his Derby form punters will be worried about his well being and how he is so soon after his poor display at Epsom. Main rivals Magician and Toronado also have something to prove in their own way but the trio should have it all to themselves and are way ahead of the pack. I’m putting my faith in Dawn Approach to bounce back over this trip and put his last run firmly in the past. Selections: 3pts Dawn Approach 11/8

>BetVictor

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[Aidymac]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013 *Shea Shea > Ascot 3:05 > WIN @ 9/4 Bet365 BOG* If he repeats his run where he won a Group 1 at Meydan last time out, he will win this race, and probably a tad cosily too. Sole Power was back in 4th that day, and was easily put in his place. This horse has an incredible turn of foot, and lots of power. Ground tomorrow is perfect. This is De Kock's first runner at Royal Ascot since 2009, his last winner was Archipenko back in 2008, the yard think this horse is a certainty to win tomorrow aswell.

[beaker1]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013 2:30 QUEEN ANNE STAKES It is fair to say that we have been royally spoilt in the last three years with Goldikova successful in 2010 before Canford Cliffs took her measure 12 months later and then Frankel putting up the best performance that I have ever seen over a mile in last season’s race so Animal Kingdom and Co have a lot to live up to kick Royal Ascot off to the best possible start. And the key to the race is clearly whether Animal Kingdom’s superior ability to his rivals can overcome the alien conditions he faces here tackling a straight mile on turf when he is at home over a turning 1m2f on dirt or a synthetic surface? A Kentucky Derby and Dubai World Cup winner he may be, whereas it can be argued the only genuine Group 1 horse (so far) he faces here is Elusive Kate, so raw ability should be enough as his odds-on quotes suggests, but we only need to cast our minds back a year to Black Caviar scraping home at odds of 1/6 having come from the other side of the world to understand that this is anything but a penalty kick for Animal Kingdom who is having the final race of his career. Would he be running here if he was continue with his racing career I ask myself? I want to take him on at odds-on and if Farhh was running rather than laid up in his box with a small setback, I would be all over the Lockinge winner here but, sadly, he is not and Animal Kingdom’s opposition is not in Farhh’s class. Backing something each-way against Animal Kingdom looks the most sensible option as we still make a profit if the American-trained horse is too good (he is 10lbs clear on official ratings of Elusive Kate)and we hit the frame but also knowing we have a real chance of picking up the main prize if the odds-on favourite simply finds a straight mile on turf his undoing and drawing stall 13 of the 13 could certainly have also been better. He is also a five-year-old and 17 of the last 21 runnings have been won by a four-year-old. You may also want to consider Paddy Power’s offer of your stake back (on win bets up to a certain stake) if Animal Kingdom wins, which is a fine concession. Since the Queen Anne was upgraded to Grade 1 status, only one of the ten winners had not won at the highest level or started at bigger than 13/2. The key guide has unquestionably been the Lockinge Stakes featuring as many as 18 of the last 32 winners which is a fantastic return. Unfortunately this season’s impressive winner, Farhh, is injured so he can’t bid to make it three wins in as many years for the Lockinge winner in the Queen Anne so trends followers might want to switch to the runner-up, Sovereign Debt, who was beaten by four lengths at 80/1 or Aljamaaheer who was a further neck back in third, or the fourth, Chil The Kite, the fifth, Declaration Of War, despite being sent off a warm favourite at Newbury or Trumpet Major who was tailed off back in tenth and Hughes says he will try and ride him for a place here. It is certainly worth noting that of the last 18 Queen Anne winners that ran in the Lockinge, as many as 12 were beaten in that Newbury Group 1 race so all is certainly not lost for that quintet’s chances. Aidan O’Brien supplies the probable second-favourite in Declaration Of War who had no right to start as short as 11/8 for the Lockinge on pure form but he should also have finished closer than fifth so I think we have to take that run with a pinch of salt. O’Brien’s Haradasun was also disappointing in the Lockinge before bouncing back to win the Queen Anne though, in fairness to Haradasun, that Newbury flop was his seasonal debut on his first start outside of Australia whereas Declaration Of War had already won well at The Curragh. We can’t ignore the fact, however, that O’Brien has won the Queen Anne twice and not with superstars either whereas his three most brilliant contenders (Hawk Wing, George Washington and Rip Van Winkle) not only failed to win but also failed to even place. Elusive Kate is pushing Declaration Of War for second-favouritism on her seasonal debut and if she can win first time out, then she will become the first winner to do since the Godolphin-owned Allied Forces in 1997. Also a filly of course, this really hasn’t been a filly’s race as only the most successful horse in European history in terms of Group 1 wins in Goldikova has won for fillies in recent times when she became the first winning filly or mare for 40 years. William Buick rides Elusive Kate in preference to her stablemate, Gregorian, who has caught my eye this season, firstly when just touched off at Haydock when openly in need of the run before winning the Diomed Stakes well at Epsom and I think he could be a sneaky one to run a big race with Tom Queally taking over in the saddle having also placed at this meeting last season in the St James’s Palace Stakes. The last winner aged over five was Ardoon back in 1976 so it is hard to make a case for Penitent (7) or Monsieur Chevalier (6). As highlighted earlier, four-year-olds have a superb record in this race so if any of the other five-year-olds in addition to Animal Kingdom can come out on top (Trade Storm or Libranno) they would be bucking the trend. Only one winner since 1995 started has outside of the first four in the betting. The first three in market will clearly be Animal Kingdom, Declaration Of War and Elusive Kate but it is tight for fourth-favouritism between Aljamaaheer, Trade Storm, Gregorian and Sovereign Debt. Given what a fantastic guide the Lockinge has been, Aljamaaheer interests me. Okay, Sovereign Debut had his measure by a neck at Newbury but the Roger Varian-trained four-year-old has had almost half as few career races and I fancy him to keep improving this season (that Lockinge run was a career-best) and he looked a weak three-year-old last season who could only progress at four which included a fast-finishing third over this course in the Jersey Stakes when only beaten a length on just his fourth career start. SHORT LIST Aljamaaheer Gregorian Declaration Of War CONCLUSION Black Caviar almost failed at odds of 1/6 last season being the International superstar of the meeting underlining this is a hard place to win when travelling from so far away and the straight mile on turf from an outside draw on his first run in Europe in a race where horses one year younger have a superb record is likely to see Animal Kingdom run below his rating, so it’s a question of how far below and whether his class can see him through. It may well do but at odds of 8/11 I can leave him alone in search of an each-way alternative and it would come as no surprise if he drifts to odds-against as the layers will surely want to get him so he is trading option for those who like to lay-to-back. Elusive Kate wouldn’t be your identikit Queen Anne winner being a filly (one win in 40+ years) on her seasonal debut (no winner since 1997) and I prefer her stablemate GREGORAN of the Gosden pair to run into frame having really liked the way he won the Diomed last time out. I also like ALJAMAAHEER’s each-way chances at around the 14/1 mark and make that the best bet of the race. Being a four-year like 17 of the last 21 winners that contested (and ran well in) the Lockinge like 18 of the last 32 winners, he is certainly one for those that like trends and I’m sure there is more to come from this fairly lightly-raced individual who also has quality straight-course Ascot form. Sovereign Debt is also a four-year-old that ran well in the Lockinge but, having his sixteenth career start, is he really going to improve enough to win? For that reason DECLARATION OF WAR makes up the short list. I am sure this four-year-old is better than his Lockinge flop and his stable have twice won the Queen Anne before including with another horse that disappointed at Newbury. He is shortest with Paddy Power who offer the money-back concession if Animal Kingdom wins (to a certain win-only stake) and that has to be considered an option. 3:05 KING’S STAND STAKES Race trends are not as strong for the King’s Stand as they are for the Queen Anne but it is noting that eight of the last 13 winners were also successful on their most recent outing (and Prohibit was only beaten an unlucky head on his previous start two years ago), so we must strongly consider the importance of entering the King’s Stand Stakes in tip-top heart. In fact, the last eight winners finished first or second last time out. This would suggest that Ballesteros, Doc Hay, Jack Dexter, Prohibit, Stepper Point, Angels Will Fall, Bungle In The Jungle and Hoyam are correctly priced trading at nothing shorter than 33/1 having all failed to make the first two last time out. Fillies/mares have won five of the last 19 runnings which is a belting strike rate given how heavily outnumbered but I would still struggle to fancy Angels Will Fall or Hoyam, their only two contenders this season. As for Reckless Abandon, Sole Power and Pearl Secret, whilst they also failed to post a top-two effort on their most recent start, it would be foolhardy to purely dismiss them on that statistic alone as the aforementioned-named pair finished a close-up third and fourth in the best European guide (the Temple Stakes) whereas Pearl Secret can’t be described as being out of form having not run since finishing ninth when we last saw him in the Nunthorpe (started at 6/1) where he tasted his only defeat in just a five-race career so he still has a big career ahead of him. Can he win a Group 1 first time out though in such a competitive race? If so, he will become the second horse to do so in 14 years. I wouldn’t be surprised if he turns out to be the best of these come the end of the season however. With four Australian-trained winners (all four won the Lightning Stakes at Flemington won this season by the now-retired Black Caviar) and a success for Hong Kong with Little Bridge last season, it is no surprise to see a non European-trained horse in the Mike De Kock-trained Shea Shea heading the market. The Aussie challenge is not as potent this season though Shamexpress has to be respected so the international focus will principally be on the Al Quoz Sprint winner who is lightly raced for a six-year-old having won six of his eight career starts. I almost spat out my cornflakes when I read Kieren Fallon in the Weekender state: “I don’t like to use the word ‘certainty’ when describing horses’ chances, but Shea Shea is as near to that as you would get in a Group 1 sprint.” Heavens above. Win he may but that has to go down as one of the most ridiculous quotes I’ve read in a while as this is a hugely competitive 19-runner race and I can’t help thinking that 2/1 is way too short. There is no denying how smooth he has looked in Dubai but this is Ascot and horses either take to this course or they don’t and we simply don’t know in his case. The Form Book says that Shea Shea is a 2½ lengths better horse than Sole Power on two runs in Dubai so he is a deserving favourite but Sole Power was then beaten two lengths by Kingsgate Native in the Temple Stakes so I have to look to take on the South African raider at 2/1. Regards Shamexpress, being an Aussie raider alone means he comes here with a shout. He was only sixth, however, in the Lightning Stakes but he did bounce back to win a Grade 1 next time. Unlike the other Aussie winners at Royal Ascot though he is younger so not as battle hardened as I feel you need an ultra tough to travel half-way across the world with. We have to go back to the Vincent O’Brien-trained Bluebird under Cash Asmussen 26 years ago to locate the last King’s Stand Stakes success for Ireland whose sole contender is the Palace House Stakes winner, Sole Power, who has since disappointed slightly in the Temple Stakes when fourth behind Kingsgate Native beaten two lengths as the 11/10 favourite. The Temple Stakes has been the best British guide as five winners of that Group 2 affair since 1990 followed up here (Dayjur, Elbio, Lochsong, Bolshoi & Cassandra Go) and Equiano was second in that Haydock Group 2 affair three years ago before going on to win this prize whereas last year’s Temple winner, Bated Breath, only found Little Bridge too good here. If everything falls right then Sole Power has the ability to win any 5f sprint but despite a Nunthorpe win and a Temple Stakes success earlier in his career, he does seem to be a little unlucky and I am not sure that he really enjoys Ascot having placed just once in three starts here when third in this race last year. Rattling fast ground would help his chance even more but the watering policy over the weekend was put in motion so it is therefore more likely to ride Good on Day 1. If race times for the Queen Anne suggest it is quick ground, then mark up his chances. If he is to be successful then Sole Power will need to reverse Temple Stakes placings with Kingsgate Native, Swiss Spirit and Reckless Abandon. Kingsgate Native is too hit or miss for me and I don’t trust him to put two big runs together back to back but Swiss Spirit is of notable interest as he looked the best horse in the race but was hampered at the start and finished like a train to be beaten a neck. I have no doubt that he would have won with a clear run from the start and I also feel Ascot’s stiffer 5f will be more in his favour than Haydock’s. He also caught the eye on his return in the Duke Of York Stakes over 6f when paddock watchers were of the view he needed the run so I am pretty sure that his new trainer this season, John Gosden, has been working his way towards having him spot for on for this target at a meeting he has a fabulous record at and I expect him to improve again. Reckless Abandon ran a perfectly good race in third on his seasonal debut having won two Group 1s as a juvenile last season and the Norfolk Stakes at this meeting. Three-year-olds have a decent strike rate winning, on average, twice a decade which may not sound exciting but they are always heavily outnumbered (just three this time with Bungle In The Jungle and Hoyam being the other pair). He is not straightforward though and has a mid-draw for a horse than can hang so he may not be as near to a rail as he would like. Spirit Quartz was back in fifth in the Temple Stakes but he has since won the Prix du Gros-Chene held at Chantilly on French Derby day. Don’t Worry Me (4th), Nuclear Debate (1st), The Tatling (4th), Equiano (2nd) and Prohibit (2nd) all contested that Group 2 event over five furlongs prior to winning the King’s Stand Stakes success in the last 17 seasons and I can see him being the pick of the Robert Cowell-trained trio. SHORT LIST Swiss Spirit Reckless Abandon Pearl Secret Medicean Man CONCLUSION As with The Queen Anne, I want to take on the short-priced favourite so I have left Shea Shea out of my short list on value grounds despite him being the most obvious winner. He may be way too good for his rivals but if we keep backing 2/1 shots in 19-runner races at Royal Ascot then we know our long-term fate. My bet in this race last year was MEDICEAN MAN (place only) who then finished fourth at 33/1 much to my frustration. My reasons 12 months ago was that he loves Ascot and could outrun his odds and I am contemplating the same bet again at slightly shorter odds as he still loves the course as that fine run last season demonstrated yet again but also because he was a very striking winner last time out in a Listed race at Haydock where he came from away the pace and well off the pace to quicken up very well and take the spoils so he is now a horse that loves Ascot that is right at the top of his game. Despite the great record of the Aussies, I am not sure they rate Shamexpress in the same league as their other four winners of the race so I am hoping for a rare home-trained victory and like the each-way chances of SWISS SPIRIT most at a double-figure price. The Temple Stakes is a good guide to this race and, to my eyes, he was the best horse in the race who promises to be even better over a stiffer track and has been prepared to peak for today by a trainer with a rich history of getting his horses to Royal Ascot at their very best. Just behind him at Haydock was RECKLESS ABANDON who is a real live wire and was fresh going to post. With that freshness out of his system, he has a big chance for three-year-olds in a race where they have a decent enough strike rate from few runners if he can stay in a straight line unlike when he was still far too good for his rivals when easily winning the Norfolk Stakes over course and distance last season before adding the Prix Morny and Middle Park Stakes. Previous Ascot form in sprint races often counts for plenty. PEARL SECRET is the fly-in-the-ointment horse. He is having his seasonal debut which is a slight niggle but that has been overcome twice in the last 14 years and he could just turn out to be very good indeed. Unbeaten in four starts heading into the Nunthorpe Stakes, his trainer holds him in the highest regard and around 14/1 could look a very big price when we look back at results at the end of the season. Swiss Spirit each-way is my main interest. 3:45 ST JAMES’S PALACE STAKES Rock Of Gibraltar, Henrythenavigator and Frankel added this race to their 2000 Guineas success in recent seasons which has become a relevant statistic this season following the surprise announcement that Dawn Approach will take his chance despite his disastrous performance in the Derby. Many will argue that Epsom took too much out of him but I disagree as he was allowed to come home in his own time after being uncontrollable for the first mile off a pace too slow for him (though Bolger feels it was something else that set him alight) so he didn’t have the guts ripped out of him. Most Derby runners run in the King Edward VII Stakes if they take in this meeting but it is worth noting, however, that Marju won the St James’s Palace Stakes after finishing second in the Derby (flopped when a hot favourite in the 2000 Guineas) and, of more relevance, the Bolger-trained Lush Lashes was an easy winner of the Coronation Stakes having finished fifth in the Oaks for which she was sent off favourite. Bolger is known for training tough horses so I don’t really see the fact he bombed out in the Derby being as big a problem as many. Magician is more of a problem than that as he looked seriously good in the Dee Stakes and Irish 2000 Guineas. Up until the six-day entry stage, it appeared that the 2000 Guineas would be best represented by the fourth, Toronado, though some will argue that is unfair to Glory Awaits who finished second at 150/1 wearing blinkers for the first time at Newmarket. The 2000 Guineas is marginally the key guide ahead of the Irish 2000 Guineas but do not go using that a reason to take one rather over the other as there is little in it. That said, Most Improved became the first winner since Dr Fong 14 years earlier to be successful that had failed to finish in the first four in any version of a European 2000Guineasbeforehand when winning last year’s below-par renewal having made his seasonal return with a midfield effort in the French Derby. I really can’t see any of Dundonell, George Vancouver, Leitir Mor (surely a pacemaker for Dawn Approach despite winning a Group 3 race five days ago), Mars or Mswashish following suit. I am surprised Dundonell isn’t chasing easier pickings in the Jersey Stakes, George Vancouver was only tenth and seventh in the English and Irish 2000 Guineas, Mars didn’t get the run of the race in the Derby being held up in last place off a slow pace and found trouble in running (was the second best horse in the race in my view) and I am surprised he is running here rather than the Tercentenary Stakes over 1m2f which was initially the plan until we heard Magician had bruised himself and Mwashish was no match for the brilliant Intello in the French Derby but I would have preferred to see him finish second rather than finding two others to also beat him suggesting he is likely to fall short again. Of the big three, and this is a race for fancied horses as we have to go back to 1992 when Brief Truce floored Arazi and Rodrigo De Triano (both unplaced) to score at anything above 9/1, what Toronado has against him compared to Dawn Approach and Magician is that nine of the last 14 winners had won a European Guineas. His connections are convinced he didn’t give his running when fourth at Newmarket and he will wear a new bit this time to help him breathe better but he was thumped by Dawn Approach and that is a lot of ground he has to make up. Richard Hughes talked him up big time before the 2000 Guineas so there is a chance he is overhyped to an extent and I thought it was interesting at a Royal Ascot preview I attended last Tuesday that Richard Hannon Jnr distanced himself a little bit from his comments stating: “Richard is very enthusiastic about horses and wants everyone to feel like he does.” Hannon did feel that the Round Course would suit Toronado better than at Newmarket and said as it is a stiffer course, he will be held up this time. I was all over Magician for this contest until Dawn Approach entered the equation, at which point I changed my tack to looking to find a bookmaker offering prices on Magician to beat Toronado in a match bet but I am now even a little nervous about that following news that the superb Irish 2000 Guineas winner bruised himself and they would make a late decision. The fact Ballydoyle also then changed plans for Mars to run him here after that news did not increase my confidence. The English and Irish 2000Guineashold a significant edge over the French equivalent with the Newmarket and Curragh Classics having highlighted 13 and 12 respectively of the last 19 winners; in fact, three of the last five St James’s Palace Stakes winners contested both races. Very few horses will contest all three Group 1 races but those that have done so recently have been responsible for an eye-catching 11 of the last 18 St James’s Palace Stakes winners. I don’t see George Vancouver altering that statistic. Aidan O’Brien has unquestionably been the trainer to follow winning six of the last 13 renewals and five of his winners contested the Irish 2000Guineas(four of which won both races) where he supplied the 1-2 this season with Magician easily beating Gale Force Ten. O’Brien’s greatest hour in the St James’s Palace Stakes was when saddling the1-2-3in2007 and he had nine horses placed in addition to his winners going back to 2002. The mile on Ascot’s Round Course is stiffer than its straight-course equivalent as it is mainly on the rise so we should not be surprised at how well Curragh form stands up in this race given their mile is a stiffer test than that offered up by Newmarket and Magician has also won over 1m2f so it should be in his favour. SHORT LIST Magician Dawn Approach CONCLUSION I am not a Toronado man and this race has been dominated by leading fancies in the last 20 years so it’s between the big Irish pair of Dawn Approach and Magician for me, the winners of the 2000 Guineas and Irish 2000 Guineas. MAGICIAN would be the trends pick being trained by Aidan O’Brien as five of his St James’s Palace Stakes winners contested the Irish 2000 Guineas of which four of them won and Magician looked like his best three-year-old over any trip when sluicing up at The Curragh (the third has won well since) but it is not ideal he incurred bruising a few days ago and they have added Mars to the mix since then who I thought was unlucky not to finish second in the Derby. DAWN APPROACH is the new favourite since news of Magician’s bruising broke and I fancy him to return to form. The question is, is that form good enough to beat a fully-on-song Magician anyway as it was a 150/1 shot in Glory Awaits who raced up with the pace in a contest where few got into it that chased him home at Newmarket and, being a horse that likes to be wound up gradually in his race, I am not sure the placing of the bend is in Dawn Approach’s favour as much as those with an instantaneous turn of foot. Just too many questions for me so I think I will leave it alone and watch. Magician at 5/2 if seriously pushed. 4:20 COVENTRY STAKES I’ve seen better runnings of the Coventry Stakes but it is still likely to be throw up a quality performer or two. Upgraded to Group 2 status nine years ago, the Coventry Stakes has been a very good race for punters since that upgrade winning five of the last seven renewals with another of those successes going the way of last season’s second-favourite, Dawn Approach. Over the last 15 years, seven favourites have won and, researching back further in time, just three winners since Chief Singer won at 20/1 on his racecourse debut in 1983 have failed to start in the first five in the betting and two of those were trained by Aidan O’Brien who has won the race six times all told. On that basis, the O’Brien-trained Stubbs has a big chance of justifying probable favouritism arriving here off the back of demonstrating a taking turn of foot to win the same Listed race at Naas as Dawn Approach last season. O’Brien also runs Sir John Hawkins (out of the ultra tough classy Peeping Fawn) who won his only start at The Curragh and War Command, winners of their only start. Peeping Fawn didn’t flourish until half-way through her three-year-old career when she then fairly took off so there is a slight niggle whether he will be quite precocious enough. O’Brien is not shy in running what turn out to be his best horses in time as the likes of Henrythenavigator, Rock Of Gibraltar, Landseer, Oratorio and Power took their chance here, two of which were beaten and four of which won a Classic with another taking the Eclipse. Also respect his second and third strings (according to the betting) as two of those have won including Harbour Master who is the only winner in the last 29 runnings that was beaten on his previous start so clearly that is rule number one. There are three horses that were beaten last time out in the line up; Thirtypointstothree, Bahamian Heights and Riverboat Springs (the current fourth-favourite) though the latter was an eye-catcher and a half when runner-up to Thunder Strike in the Woodcote Stakes having patently failed to handle Epsom’s undulations. Stubbs (Joseph O’Brien) looks like being O’Brien’s number one hope this season over Sir John Hawkins (Ryan Moore) and War Command (Seamie Heffernan) though he was beaten on his debut and I prefer unbeaten horses if pressed. Stats say we should take particular note of contenders with a profile of winning on their only start as nine of the last 20 winners had such a profile which is an excellent strike rate considering the vast majority of runners will have run more than once. Qualifiers on that front are Sir John Hawkins, Championship, Wahaab, Dubawi Fun, Parbold and War Command. With three winners (including two of the last four), Richard Hannon has the best record outside of Aidan O’Brien and he has three realistic contenders in Wahaab who was all the rage before he made a successful debut at Goodwood (though he ran very green when asked to win his race), Championship, who made a winning debut despite a slow start in the same Newbury maiden the stable won with Canford Cliffs and Strong Suit who both then went on to Coventry Stakes success and Thunder Strike who romped to victory in the Woodcote Stakes. At the preview I attended last week, Richard Hannon Jnr could only talk of Thunder Strike saying that he had to be their number one in the Coventry (in fact he made it his best 2yo chance of the whole week) but something has occurred since then as Hughes said in his Racing Post column that he was all set to ride Thunder Strike until recently but now he rides Championship. I wouldn’t mind being informed by connections what is exactly going on. Being owned by Hamdan al Maktoum, Wahaab was always going to be ridden by Paul Hanagan though. Whether any are good enough is the question especially coming off Hughes’ comment that he usually knows what he will be riding in the Coventry Stakes as early as March. SHORT LIST Sir John Hawkins Championship War Command Parbold CONCLUSION O’Brien and Hannon have been the trainers to concentrate on recent years so no apologies for including three of their contenders in a four-horse short list from the first half dozen in the betting in a race that is rarely won by horses from outside that market parameter. As much as I respect the turn of foot Stubbs showed last time out, at top price of 5/2 I can resist and feel that SIR JOHN HAWKINS and WAR COMMAND offer better value to give Aidan O’Brien his seventh winner of this race. A couple of his winners were not his first string according to the betting and nine of the last 20 winners entered the race having won their only start like the aforementioned pair whereas Stubbs is having his fourth start and has tasted defeat. CHAMPIONSHIP is the pick of the Hannon team on his win at Newbury and there has to be something in the fact they started him in the same maiden as their two recent Coventry Stakes winners. He was not as emphatic a winner as Canford Cliffs or Strong Suit but he fluffed the start so is value for more and this does not look the strongest of Coventry Stakes. Richard Fahey’s PARBOLD should not be dismissed easily. He is another with the profile I like of winning their only start which came at the York Dante Meeting on soft ground when sent off favourite. It was just the professional manner that impressed rather than being wowed and, if we take the view, he will be even better on better ground, he comes right into the equation. No strong view on a best bet for the race. 5:00 ASCOT STAKES Last season’s runaway winner, Simenon, is trained by Willie Mullins who runs Midnight Oil this time and, like many winning Ascot Stakes handlers of late, he is far better recognised for his exploits with a jumps licence. Simenon’s success followed immediately off the back of the success in 2011 of the Nicky Henderson-trained Veiled who this year runs Lieutenant Miller. In fact, the last five winners were trained by stables better known for jumps racing as the three previous runnings were won by David Pipe, Suzy Smith and Paul Webber. Pipe had also been knocking on the door with a second and third in the previous two years and his father won this race four times when he held the licence at Nicholashayne and he is responsible for two runners, the 2010 winner, Junior, and Investissement. Jonjo O’Neill is also better known for his jumping exploits of course and he runs Well Sharp in the J P McManus colours after hisr runaway success by six lengths (could have been called the winner 4f out) at the York Dante Meeting in another staying handicap where jumps trainers have traditionally fared very well but that came at a price as he was raised 10lbs and this is will be run of much faster ground. Continuing on the jumps trainers theme, Phillip Hobbs runs Softsong and Big Easy. Usually this is very much a race in which to concentrate on four and five-year-olds with 15 of the last 18 winners emerging from that age bracket including last season’s wide-margin winner. It is understandable why four and five-year-olds have performed so well as not only are they are generally open to more improvement but they are also far more likely to be unexposed over extreme staying distances such as this (2m4f) and therefore improve for it. That would put me off Blue Bajan (11), Junior (10), La Estrella (10), Investissement (7), Lieutenant Miller (7) and Big Easy (6). There used to be an angle in the Ascot Stakes to oppose horses carrying less than 9st as they had been responsible for approximately 50% of the total runners between 1996-2008 but only won on three occasions but, in the last four years, the weights have been so much more compressed that very few horses have run off below 9st and none do this year. Therefore, it may be best to concentrate now on official ratings stats as eight of the last 11 winners were rated between 83-93 heading into the race which is against the top five in the weights; Blue Bajan, Well Sharp, Softsong, Investissement and Suraj. There was a draw bias angle to exploit a few years ago, even over 2m4f, when the race featuring nigh on 30 runners but that edge has been taken away by reducing the maximum field size to 20 so we have lost an ‘in’ there as there has been no advantage since. The market has been a fair guide, though no more than that, with 16 of the last 23 winners starting in the first five in the betting. SHORT LIST Midnight Oil Justifification Tiger Cliff Homeric CONCLUSION MIDNIGHT OIL has surely been teed up for a while to give Willie Mullins a second win in this race in as many years and continue the tremendous run of jumps-based trainers. He is the right age that just about falls into the right rating bracket and Mullins has turned to Richard Hughes to ride this Gigginstown Stud-owned hurdler these days who even contested the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle behind Jekzi and Champagne Fever (finished last of six) in December and I dare say he has improved a good few pounds since he last ran on the Flat on September 30th 2011 but he still races off the same handicap mark of 93 as on that occasion. Two wins and two seconds in his last four starts tells us he is on song and I envisage him being well backed so 10/1 makes plenty of appeal. TIGER CLIFF will be the most heart warming winner of Royal Ascot if this Lady Cecil-trained four-year-old can follow up his victory at Newmarket on just his fifth career start. He has to stay another 6f here but his sire is an influence for stamina and he has done all his best work in the closing stages. At around 5/1 though, bookmakers have not taken too many chances. HOMERIC won the 2m handicap here last month just doing enough under Ryan Moore who is claimed to ride Marchese Marconi for Coolmore who looks their second choice behind Justification. Frankie Dettori isn’t a bad replacement however and, having just his sixth start, there is surely plenty more to come from Homeric especially stepping up in trip for Highclere Thoroughbred Racing who love their Royal Ascot winners. JUSTIFICATION may have only finished seventh in the Chester Cup but that does not tell the whole story as he was never in a position to get into the race before finishing off strongly after meeting trouble in running having been sent off joint-favourite to be beaten only 4½ lengths and three of the last 12 Ascot Stakes winners ran well in the Chester Cup. 5:35 WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES Upgraded from a conditions event to a Listed Race nine seasons ago, the Windsor Castle Stakes remains the weakest two-year-old race of Royal Ascot from a quality perspective despite its elevation which contributes to why it is very weak on trends. I was keen on Fine N’ Dandy here who was declared on Sunday but he misses the race with colic. With four of the last seven winners starting at 100/1, 33/1, 20/1 and 14/1, the tide has turned in a big way as far as the market being a guide is concerned as the previous 21 winners up until 2006 had started in the first six in the betting. The Irish don’t attack this race with great force (no winner since 1980) but they have filled the runner-up berth twice in the last five years and supplied last season’s third. They look to have a stronger team this year however and Aidan O’Brien is doubly handed with Fountain Of Youth (Ryan Moore) and Wilshere Boulevard (Joseph O’Brien) and Tommy Stacks runs Treadstone who is one of the more interesting 33/1 shots. Very surprisingly, however, given his record with two-year-olds, and notably early-season two-year-olds, this is a race that has eluded Richard Hannon during his long, distinguished career though Alhebayeb came close to ending that hoodoo last season when beaten half a length into second. This year he runs the probable favourite, Anticipated, with Hughes riding following his defeat of Justice Day here in May alongside Steventon Star, Sacha Park and Beau Nash. Wesley Ward caused a shock for America when his Strike The Tiger won at 33/1 at 2009 but we have learned our lesson and his Ogermeister, will be a single-figure price after shown loads of speed to win his only start. SHORT LIST Ogermeister Treadstone My Catch Finflash CONCLUSION OGERMEISTER may have only beaten four rivals at odds of 2/5 on his only start in America but he was away like a bullet when making all and he could just been too speedy for these like a rank outsider who made all in this race for the same yard four years ago. Whether he was 2/5 on debut because he was beating trees or rather word had got out he was a speedball (or a combination or both), others with a clearer idea of American racing will know better than I but I can’t ignore what an impact Wesley Ward’s juveniles had at this meeting four years ago (also won the Queen Mary) so he has to be shortlist material. Given Richard Hannon’s record of never having won this race, this is another race where I will leave the favourite out of the short list and suggest TREADSTONE at 33/1 to each-way stakes. He has been pitched in against two of Ireland’s best two-year-olds this season when fourth to Coach House and second to Stubbs and I always take note when Tommy Stack sends over runners to Britain. He was strongest at the finish last time so this stiff 5f should suit and it is also his first chance to run on decent ground. MY CATCH went straight into my horse alerts after a very promising debut second at Beverley. He was taking on four previous winners that day but shaped best of all only losing out to the winner who bagged the rail and made all after My Catch had to be switched around him to deliver a challenge. I would expect him to improve plenty on that initial experience and we have Jamie Spencer on our side which is no bad thing on the Ascot straight course and he makes each-way appeal at 20/1. I will also throw FINFLASH in at a big price. He caught the eye here on debut in a race where Channon often runs a big Royal Ascot hope (and he has won this race three times) but then got beat in a hot maiden at Salisbury and was then on the face of it really disappointing when beaten at long odds-on at Lingfield but the 50/1 winner that day, Baytown Kestrel, could be a surprise packet in the Queen Mary so 50/1 about Finflash could be far too big.

[Aykay1]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013 5.35 - Sacha Park @ 16/1 Paddy Power Despite not winning yet, his form is working out well, with Sayyerr winning again since, Stubbs favourite for the Coventry and Club Wexford winning last week. Judging from the stable's comments, there isn't a lot to choose between their four entries and I think this one provides the value.

[bowles10]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013 Royal Ascot Day 1 Tuesday 3.05 Kings Stand Stakes (5f) The South African raider Shea Shea makes this a global affair as usual but our very own RECKLESS ABANDON is the one to beat. Fastest 2yo last season and ran really well in the Temple Stakes with a group 1 penalty. Runs in this off 8st 12lb and can use those extra lbs in hand to take a leading role here. 4.25 Coventry Stakes (5f) The word is that STUBBS from O'briens stable is flying at home and can land this for the irish trainer. I don't often rely on "word" from sources but this seems very strong. 5.35 Windsor Castle Stakes (6f) Both Hannon runners STEVENTON STAR and ANTICIPATED look to have an excellent chance here. Both won at Windsor earlier in the season and Anticipated was very impressive at Ascot last time. Bets Reckless Abandon 2pts win 11/2 Hills Stubbs 2pts win 3/1 Paddy power Steventon Star 1pt ew 14/1 Bet365 1st 4 Anticpated 2pts win 11/2 Hills

[Stevet1859]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013 2:30 Royal Ascot: Trade Storm 1pt e/w 16/1 Stan James (1/4 123) Trade Storm ran very well in Dubai and certainly seemed to improve while he was out there. He was a good winner of a Group Two there and not disgraced in a Group One. Jamie Spencer is on board again and with David Simcock in decent form Trade Storm looks to hold a strong chance of making the frame. 3:45 Royal Ascot: Mshawish 1pt e/w 33/1 Bet Victor (1/4 123) There is one or two question marks over the leading players here which could lead to an upset. Dawn Approach may settle better however this was not Plan A. Magician may not be 100% and you need to be to win a Group One. And the jury is out a little on Toronado, just how good was that Craven win and is he over the breathing problem. Mshawish is pretty close up on form yet is a massive price. Granted it will probably need all three at the head of the market to run below form for him to win, they just might. Mshawish looks to have a good chance of making the frame and his excellent trainer would not come over if he thought his charge was a back number, especially now he drops back in trip. Frankie takes the ride and no man aboard around here. 5:00 Royal Ascot: Tiger Cliff 1pt win 11/2 William Hill In the past it has paid to side with National Hunt / dual purpose horses, however the form of Tiger Cliff's last win was franked by De Rigueur and Lady Cecil has carried on her late husband's good work with a string of winners in recent days. Tiger Cliff is lightly raced there looks to be more to come and he should stay this trip. Hard not to be sentimental and seeing Tiger Cliff carried home on a wave of emotion up the straight. 5:35 Royal Ascot: Ogermeister 1pt win 7/1 William Hill Virtually impossible to compare the form from Belmont, but the fact that his trainer who has won this race previously sees fit to bring him over speaks volumes. Likely to break fast and may take some catching. Looks just about worth chancing at this price.

[Kosher Readies]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013 I recieved an e-mail from Coral saying they were giving 2/1 on animal kingdom tomorrow but can't see it on the site anywhere?

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013

2:30 Royal Ascot: Trade Storm 1pt e/w 16/1 Stan James (1/4 123) Trade Storm ran very well in Dubai and certainly seemed to improve while he was out there. He was a good winner of a Group Two there and not disgraced in a Group One. Jamie Spencer is on board again and with David Simcock in decent form Trade Storm looks to hold a strong chance of making the frame.

Im with you on this one, if he can transfer that form back over here then he has a very good chance of at least placing. I also fancy Elusive Kate as well who has some really solid Group One form in the bag and Buick says that she is looking like a better 4yo and doing well at home.

[Primevil]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013

I recieved an e-mail from Coral saying they were giving 2/1 on animal kingdom tomorrow but can't see it on the site anywhere?

2/1 AK would be so out of line....If so £25 max?, and prob up to 08:30...If you could get 5k on,,,Double your money time..NO RISK.,,Wouldnt that be nice.... However dont they say they will lay any horse for a take out of £10k on big race days...if they go 2/1 in the morning, Ill have my debit card on stand by!..Cant see it myself.

[smith17]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013 14.30 Ascot: Trade Storm, 12/1 >Bet365, e/w Trade Storm finished fourth in the Dubai Duty Free lto at Meydan. He ran quite well that day in his first start in group 1 company. He won a group 2 in impressive fashion before that over today's distance. He was held up behind and started to make good progress about 2f out through a bit of traffic. He got to the lead inside the final furlong and showed a great turn of foot to put the race to bed in a couple of strides, winning in the end by 1½L from Musir without his jockey having to get too animated in the saddle. He has some decent form over c&d. Today's ground will suit and this is his best trip. The favourite, Animal Kingdom, will be hard to beat but his best form is over further and this is the first time he has raced over a straight mile. Trainer David Simcock is in good form. Jamie Spencer has ridden this horse five times, winning three of those races, and his style is perfect for this horse. 15.05 Ascot: Reckless Abandon, 5/1 >boylesports, win Reckless Abandon ran a cracker lto to finish second in the group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock. The field split into two and he settled behind the leader of his group. He went to the front of his group about 2f out and ran on well to finish about 2L ahead of Spirit Quartz. He finished about ½L behind Kingsgate Native and a head behind Swiss Spirit, both of them came from the other group. That was his first run of the season and he should come on for that run. The ground that day was firm which was possibly a bit too quick for him and today's ground will be ideal. Trainer Clive Cox is in decent form and Adam Kirby is in the saddle. 15.45 Ascot: Magician, 5/2 >Bet365, win Magician was a very impressive winner of the Irish 2000 Guineas lto at the Curragh. He was settled behind the leaders until 2f out when he was asked to go on and he got to the lead over 1f out. He finished strongly to win by 3½L. Trading Leather, who was 5L back in third, easily won a listed race nto. There should be some more improvement to come and he will go very close today. His main rivals, Dawn Approach and Toronado, both have questions to answer after their last runs but even if they both return to form I think Magician could still be too strong. Today's ground and trip are perfect for him. Trainer Aidan O'Brien is in good form and his son Joseph, who was on board in the Guineas, is in the saddle again today. 16.25 Ascot: Riverboat Springs, 10/1 >Betvictor, win Posted this before his last run;

14.05 Epsom: Riverboat Springs, 11/2 Paddy Power, win Riverboat Springs won his only race to date impressively. He broke slowly from the stalls but quickly latched onto the back of the pack. He started to make progress through the small field about 2f out and he got to the lead in the last furlong and finished very strongly to win by 2¼L from the re-opposing Money Team, who won easily nto. RS should come on a lot for that experience and I would expect him to confirm running with MT. The slight step up in trip will suit as will the ground. Thunder Strike is the obvious danger but he hasn't beaten much in his two races. Trainer Mick Channon won this race last year and William Buick is a very positive booking.

He didn't handle Epsom's undulations at all but once he finally got his balance, he finished in eye-catching fashion, coming from a distant second last 2f out to finish second, 3½L behind the re-opposing Thunder Strike. It was a very encouraging run and, as it was only his second race, there will be improvement to come. Today's course, ground and trip will suit. Trainer Mick Channon is having a decent year with his 2yo. William Buick keeps the ride having been on board lto, which is a massive plus. 17.00 Ascot: Lieutenant Miller, 12/1 >boylesports, e/w Lieutenant Miller won nicely lto over 2m at Doncaster. He was settled in mid division most of the way round. His jockey asked him to go about 2f out and he responded well. He showed a decent turn of foot and got to the lead inside the final furlong. He finished strongly to win by 1¼L. He has run on the flat four times, winning twice and placing twice. Stamina won't be an issue as he has won over today's distance before and was narrowly beaten in a three mile handicap off top weight at Fakenham, both over hurdles. The ground will suit. Jumps trainers have won this eight times in the last ten runnings, including LM's trainer Nicky Henderson winning it in 2011 with Veiled. Henderson has his jumpers in fine form and I would expect him to have LM in top condition for this. Graham Lee, who was on board lto, is a big plus in the saddle. 17.35 Ascot: Haikbidiac, 20/1 >boylesports, e/w (1/4, 1234) Haikbidiac ran very well lto in the listed Woodcote Stakes at Epsom. He didn't seem totally comfortable coming down the hill so today's flatter track will be a lot more suitable. He didn't really see out the 6f either so the drop back to the minimum trip will suit. Today's ground is ideal. Trainer William Haggas is in good form and his 2yos are having a cracking season. Kieren Fallon is a very good jockey booking.

[The Quiet Man]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013

I recieved an e-mail from Coral saying they were giving 2/1 on animal kingdom tomorrow but can't see it on the site anywhere?

You can bet on this from 8am with a £25 limit! TQM

[Primevil]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013

You can bet on this from 8am with a £25 limit! TQM

ONLINE & PHONE ONLY//////////////////////////////////////////////// NO SHOPS...:spank

[Primevil]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013 Ladbrokes 8/11 Animal Kingdom....All other firms 10/11 - 2/1(restricted)....What sort of person would contimplate putting a bet on with this lot? They are shorter on all selections at the front of the market in all other races,,longer on the odd rag here n there...Joke prices...SHOP AROUND!

[Primevil]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013 Animal Kingdom....Barry Irwin(original, and now co owner)...Regarding todays straight mile..."I am now confident he will handle the straight mile", "he has the edge on this field". "Its our race lo lose". Enough said!

[cpo]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013 Animal Kingdom - Surely can't get beat if he shows his best form. Hopefully the rain will stay away so we can see the best of this horse. Absolutely cracking price for a genuine group 1 horse in a race that lacks strength in depth. Sole Power - I like Sole Power here who is ultra consistent and probably didn't give his best running last time out. Johnny Murtagh is back on board today and he looks to be drawn on the right side this year. Last year he was probably done by the ground but today he gets his optimum conditions. I would love to see Pearl Secret win for the maestro David Barron so I have had a little saver on him. Dawn Approach - Only a little interest on this horse today as there has to be slight doubt after what happened at Epsom. That being said I doubt conditions would be running him here if he wasn't 100%. A back on song Dawn Approach would be very tough to beat in this and I fancy him to win back over a mile. Championship - It's surely significant that Hughes has chosen to ride this horse over Thunder Strike who has 3 wins to his name already incuding a 3 length win at listed level. He met plenty of trouble on his first start but still managed to get the jockey out of jail and win comfortably in the end. Stubbs is the other one I like in the race and might saver on him. Lieutentant Miller - This is a race that usually goes to a jumps trainer and I fancy that trend to continue today. This horse looks to be progressing nicely and has already won over 2m2f at Pontefract. Stamina will not be a worry and Graham lee gets on well with him. He looks to have an excellent chance in a race that has plenty of horses with stamina doubts in. Placepot 1.Animal Kingdom and Aljamaaher 2.Sole Power and Reckless Abandon 3.Dawn Approach 4.Championship and Stubbs 5.Lieutenant Miller and Big Easy 6.Anticipated and Sacha Park

[Binchy]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013 Race 1 - Animal Kingdom the class act in the field for me, only two have won G1 races, the other being Elusive Kate but happy to take her on seasonal reappearance and the price on offer is a gift, got evens last night with Bet365. Also taken Gregorian (16/1) and Trumpet Major (25/1) as each-way bets, with the three in a reverse trifecta. Race 2 - Was watching the ATR preview last night and they were banging on about the betting stats saying something along the lines of 2 favourites winning in the last 17 but overseas horses having won 7 out of the last 10. I do not take any notice of betting stats, as for me, the betting is obviously influenced by punters backing a horse, therefore the favourite at the time of making your selection will not necessarily be the favourite at the time of the off. Shea Shea is the pick for me, blistering turn of foot shown last time out. Slightly concerned that the horse would appear to be on the wrong side of the course but broke the track record is South Africa stopping the clokc in 56s (the previous track record was also his). 9/4 taken with Bet365. Had a trifecta with Shea Shea, Swiss Spirit and Reckless Abandon and out of loyalty small each-way plays on Pearl Secret (12/1) and Ballesteros (100/1). Race 3 - Aside from the obvious concerns, if Dawn Approach is anywhere near 100% and there are no psychological effects he is still the one to beat. Countless pundits were tipping the horse as the best 3yo miler in the world at the moment before the Derby and that obviously still stands, took 11/8 last night. Trifecta with Dawn Approach, Magician and Toronado. Race 4 - If Riverboat Springs breaks well I can see the horse going close and the price on offer seems value to me 10/1 e/w. I saw a stat last night that 2yo's who have ran 3 or more times have a torrid record at Royal Ascot so I am keen to take on Stubbs. I think the selection can be classed as possibly the biggest eyecatcher of the season so far and should go close. Race 5 - Horses who have ren creditably in the Chester Cup tend to go well in this races, therefore I am siding with Justification (around 7/1 e/w). On what could be a very good day for Mr O'Brien, this lightly-race horse, who is not being talked about as much of the likes of Stubbs, Magician, Mars etc. has as good a chance as any. Race 6 - John Gosden is a trainer who likes to target Royal Ascot and Ben Hall (around 16/1) looks a value e/w bet. Buick has talked the horse up in his ATR column as being a real speed horse and this is exactly the sort of race on which the animal could thrive if breaking well and settling into the race. Pretty much a do or die king of day as I have doubled and trebled up on Animal Kingdom, Shea Shea and Dawn Approach. If all 3 win that pretty much covers the whole festival for me althought I would be just as pleased with 2/3. Anything less would be disappointing.

[egg]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013 Trade Storm/Pearl Secret ~1pt e/w double. 10/1 and 12/1 Two of my horses to follow this season on the seasonal debuts. Trade Storm was impressive in Dubai and although a step up in class he looked hugely progressive in his last few runs. Pearl Secret was unbeaten until the Nunthorpe last year when he was drawn away from the pace and ended up being put away after that run. Held in the highest regard by his trainer and could be the real deal this year. Dawn Approach 13/8 1pt win Normally I avoid favourites where I can but I can't see him being beaten over this trip today. Granted he was disappointing in the Derby for whatever reason but he was looked after when all went wrong.

[Crazycoolkat]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013

Animal Kingdom - Surely can't get beat if he shows his best form. Hopefully the rain will stay away so we can see the best of this horse. Absolutely cracking price for a genuine group 1 horse in a race that lacks strength in depth. Sole Power - I like Sole Power here who is ultra consistent and probably didn't give his best running last time out. Johnny Murtagh is back on board today and he looks to be drawn on the right side this year. Last year he was probably done by the ground but today he gets his optimum conditions. I would love to see Pearl Secret win for the maestro David Barron so I have had a little saver on him. Dawn Approach - Only a little interest on this horse today as there has to be slight doubt after what happened at Epsom. That being said I doubt conditions would be running him here if he wasn't 100%. A back on song Dawn Approach would be very tough to beat in this and I fancy him to win back over a mile. Championship - It's surely significant that Hughes has chosen to ride this horse over Thunder Strike who has 3 wins to his name already incuding a 3 length win at listed level. He met plenty of trouble on his first start but still managed to get the jockey out of jail and win comfortably in the end. Stubbs is the other one I like in the race and might saver on him. Lieutentant Miller - This is a race that usually goes to a jumps trainer and I fancy that trend to continue today. This horse looks to be progressing nicely and has already won over 2m2f at Pontefract. Stamina will not be a worry and Graham lee gets on well with him. He looks to have an excellent chance in a race that has plenty of horses with stamina doubts in. Placepot 1.Animal Kingdom and Aljamaaher 2.Sole Power and Reckless Abandon 3.Dawn Approach 4.Championship and Stubbs 5.Lieutenant Miller and Big Easy 6.Anticipated and Sacha Park

My Placepot 1. Animal Kingdom 2. Reckless Abandon and Shamexpress 3. Dawn Approach 4. Sir John Hawkins and Riverboat Spring 5. Homeric and Big Easy 6. Fountain Of Youth and Justice Day

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June Ascot 2.30pm http://www.punterslounge.com/ascot-betting-animal-kingdom-can-get-favourite-backers-off-to-a-winning-start-20130618 Animal Kingdom is a consistent group 1 performer that has only been out of the first three on one occasion. He loves fast ground, whether that is on turf or dirt and he is rated 126, which puts him 10lb clear on ratings. Past winners were rated similarly with Frankel a standout 138 but Canford Cliffs was on 127, Goldikova on 130 and Paco Boy on 124. I usually prefer to oppose favourites but the race lacks depth and it is hard to see him being beaten today. Selections: 3pts WIN – Animal Kingdom Evens Bet365 0.5pt WIN – Elusive Kate 7-1 Bet365 (now 11-10 bet365)

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June Ascot 3.05pm http://www.punterslounge.com/ascot-betting-reckless-abandon-can-deny-shea-shea-in-kings-stand-stakes-20130618 Reckless Abandon is a sprinter I want to keep on the right side of. He managed a fine effort under a penalty at Haydock and that was his first run of the season. He looks to have trained on and he had some excellent 2 year old form at the highest level, winning 5 races in a row last year, 2 of them in group 1 races. He gets 3lb from older horses and that would put him level with Shea Shea as he is rated 117 and that rival is rated 120. He is drawn in stall 13 and is around 5-1 in the betting. Selections: 1pt WIN – Reckless Abandon 5-1 Stan James 1pt WIN – Swiss Spirit 9-1 Stan James

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June Ascot 3.45pm http://www.punterslounge.com/ascot-betting-dawn-approach-aims-to-restore-reputation-but-dundonnell-each-way-the-selection-20130618 Dundonnell looks to be the each way play for me in this race but he has to prove he gets 1m in a top class race like this. He looked a potentially smart sort when winning at York last August and he was only just beaten by Toronado at Doncaster. He was 4^th to George Vancouver at the Breeders Cup and then finished 3^rd of 4 to Toronado on his return in April, beaten 4 ¼ lengths that day. He dropped back to 7f last time out and won well but that was listed class. He looked to need the run when well beaten by Toronado and the trainer suggested the same. I believe he will get 1m and should appreciate faster ground and at 16-1 I’d take him each way. Selection: 1.5pts EW – Dundonnell 16-1 Bet365 (1/4 odds first 3)

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June Ascot 4.25pm http://www.punterslounge.com/ascot-betting-stubbs-could-be-a-future-star-and-can-deny-championship-in-coventry-stakes-20130618 Stubbs was 3^rd on debut but Joseph O’Brien takes responsibility for that defeat, saying he gave the horse a crack on the shoulder but he ran too freely and was tired by the end of the race. He came on plenty to win impressively over 5f at Navan , showing a smart turn of foot that day. He then won over 6f at Naas and again looked quite comfortable. I think this horse could be potentially a real star and love the way he smoothly travels into contention at the end of a race. Selections: 2pts WIN – Stubbs 7-2 Stan James 0.5pt EW – Mawfoor 14-1 BetVictor

[arsenalpunter]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013 As posted in the other thread; Royal Ascot Tuesday 18^th May 15.45 The St James’s Palace Stakes Group 1 – 1mile One of the highlights of Royal Ascot for many takes place on the opening day of the meeting in the shape of the St James’s Palace Stakes, run over 1 mile for 3 year old colts. News was broken today that Dawn Approach looks set to take his place in the race following his Epsom Derby ‘flop’, and is now vying for favouritism at the top of the market alongside Irish 2000 Guineas winner, Magician. The trainer of Dawn Approach, Jim Bolger, has been very positive about his chances of returning to the winner’s enclosure following his run in the Derby. In that race DA went off at a very short 5/4 and was well backed by many, however he wasn’t just beaten that day, he finished stone last (12^th) in the field. The Derby was perhaps too bigger ask for DA, the furthest distance he had tried prior to the 1m 4f at Epsom was 1m at Newmarket when he won the 2000 Guineas. He returns to that trip at Royal Ascot for this race and if he can produce the same form that won him the 2000 Guineas at HQ by 5 lengths, he goes here with a massive chance. He was unbeaten until his visit to Epsom and he has won on a variety of conditions, from Yielding, Soft in Places over 5f at Curragh too Good to Firm quick ground at Newmarket for his 2000 Guineas victory. Back in 4^th that day at Newmarket, and again well backed, was Toronado who is currently top price 5/1 for this race with >paddypower and the magic sign, Ladbrokes. Toronado was fancied to be the biggest danger to Dawn Approach in the 2000 Guineas following his success in the Craven Stakes at the same course. In the Craven, the horse showed plenty of speed and stayed on strongly to beat Havana Gold by 4 lengths under Richard Hughes. However on his return to racing following that victory, he was disappointing, eventually finishing 7 ½ lengths behind Dawn Approach. Connections think that he is better than his performance that day, and if he can rekindle the same form that saw him powering to victory in the Craven, he also comes here with a live chance, however he does have to improve to get in front of the market leaders. Dawn Approaches biggest danger looks to be Magician. Magician won the Irish 2000 Guineas on only his 3^rd start and punters were equally impressed as Dawn Approaches victory in the English equivalent. He eventually beat stable mate Gale Force Ten by 3 ½ lengths, also on Good to Firm ground. Magician ran that race in 1min 36.81s whereas Dawn Approach ran his victory in 1min 35.84s, so based on timings there is very little to choose between these, especially when you consider that both horses were comfortably clear in the final stages and probably had more to give. Prior to the Irish 2000, Magician won over further, when tackling 1m 2f in the Dee Stakes at Chester on Good to Soft ground, following that victory it looked as if perhaps he would prefer the further distance and he may even stay over 1m 4f for the Epsom Derby, however he proved that he is just as good over a mile at the Curragh, however Aidan O’ Brien ruled him out of the Derby and will now come into this race fresh. At a slightly bigger price, Mshawish may have an each way chance, he was 4^th home in the Prix Du Jockey Club and was beaten too far, he may suit the 1m distance better and run a good race. But for the winner, it looks set to be between Magician, Dawn Approach and Toronado. For myself, I will cross Toronado off that shortlist, I think he has to improve a great deal if he is to get closer to Dawn Approach than he did at Newmarket, he’s likely to give a good account for himself but fall just short again here. Magican and Dawn Approach are very hard to split, Magician comes to the track fresh on the back of his Irish 2000 Guineas victory, whereas Dawn Approach has something to prove after his poor run in the Derby. I don’t think Jim Bolger would rush Dawn Approach back if he didn’t think the horse wasn’t ready, and for that reason I’ll side with the Godolphin runner as my selection.

[arsenalpunter]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June 16.25 Royal Ascot Parbold - Each Way 14/1 This race is a massive step up in class for Parbold, from his debut run at in a Class 3 maiden at York last month, however he won that race well despite running green on a soft surface. He's a half brother to Majestic Myles who won over 6F as a 2 year old, he should have plenty of speed and judging by Richard Fahey's comments, he thinks this horse could run a big race also.

My best hope of a win on Tuesday is Parbold in the Coventry Stakes. We really like him as he's shown a lot of pace from day one and you can be sure he'll be travelling well throughout the contest. His work has been very good. He's come on plenty since his win in a competitive maiden at York, though I haven't killed him on the gallops, he does everything easy. At the moment, I'd say he is my best two-year-old. Things can change, and he's never worked with Sandiva, but he's the one I'd hang my hat on at this moment in time purely because of the speed he shows at home. The other day I galloped some of my potential Ascot horses together and he won that. Ecclestone was in it, Good Old Boy Lukey was in it and a 100-rated horse led them. It wasn't who was the fastest, but it was a decent gallop and I'm very happy with his progress. Whether he's good enough, I don't know. Obviously it's a warm race with all the right horses in there. I'd say he has a good chance of being placed, but the draw could be vital and I just hope it rides even from one side to the other.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 1 - Tuesday 18 June 2013 2.30 Ascot - 1pt e/w Elusive Kate @ 15/2 (Sportingbet) It may be that the favourite for this proves too strong but at the prices I think John Gosden's filly has a massive chance of getting involved and I'd be disappointed if she doesn't make the frame - even if Animal Kingdom proves too good. Although she hasn't run yet this season she went well fresh last season (arguably on ground too soft as well) and conditions will suit her today. A stiffish mile on a sound surface looks ideal and she's usually consistent. Some of these challengers have to prove themselves at the top level but this filly is a Group 1 winner amongst her own sex and was only beaten 1 1/2l by Excelebration last season (beat Moonlight Cloud). Needs to resume at her best at 4 to play a part here but I see no reason why she can't and should give the favourite something to think about at least.