kevshat Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Sunday previews: 4pts Uruguay to beat Italy 6/4 Paddy Power These will be pretty extreme conditions for this match and with Italy flat out on their feet after their semi final it may not take too much for them to tire in this match. Whether Uruguay are up for it remains to be seen but a lot of their players haven’t had the long European season which the Italians have had. Uruguay have plenty of attacking options and they look best equipped to win this match. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/uruguay-vs-italy-betting-uruguay-look-best-placed-to-secure-third-in-confederations-cup-20130630 4pts Brazil vs Spain - Both teams to score 4/5 Stan James Brazil are rightful favourites for this match but I prefer the look of both teams to score. Italy missed a stack of chances to score against Spain but I don’t think Brazil will do the same while Spain should have a lot more opportunities to get in behind a Brazil side who won’t be sitting back and retreating. This should be a really good final between two of the best sides in the world and whatever the end score is, I expect both to have scored. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/brazil-vs-spain-betting-both-teams-can-score-in-hotly-anticipated-final-20130630 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Having tackled the 3rd place play-off first I've backed >2.5 goals at 2/1 and >3.5 at 9/2' date=' plus >2.5 Italy goals at 5/1 and any unquoted score at 9.4. Stakes split roughly 55% on the first and 15% each on the rest.[/quote'] Unquoted bet voided as Betfair have cocked up and had to void all correct score bets along with a few other markets. Apparently they labelled the team names the wrong way round then changed it but left the bets live so people couldn't be sure which team they'd backed to win by a particular score! Obviously doesn't impact unquoted or draw bets but I assume they had to simply void all bets and start again. Will try and get matched again but the market hasn't really formed yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Uruguay v Italy Overall I think Italy are the better team and have given Brazil and Spain a better game than Uruguay (Uruguay and Italy have each played Brazil and Spain). So I'd make Italy the favourites. I've read that the hot conditions will favour Uruguay, but I think this factor might be over-played. I would say Italy are favourites, so there is value in backing them at the longer odds of the two teams - Italy +0.5 1.67 188Bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Re: Confederations Cup 2013 I'm back on the any unquoted score bet at 9.6. Two markets have caught my eye in the 3rd place play-off that I wouldn't usually bet on and at prices that I would usually dismiss as too short to back, but I may get involved. SJ go 9/10 about 38 or more throw ins but, if FIFA's website is to be believed, the 2 teams' stats can be crudely crunched for an average of 51. I'll probably swerve that one but thought I'd mention it in case anyone has a bit more insight into that market. Of more appeal, if Gilardino starts, would be 4/5 with 888 for >4.5 offsides in the game. Italy were caught offside 7 times in 90 minutes v Spain and he was the culprit on 5 occasions. They had only been flagged twice in their 3 group games. Uruguay average 2.5 offsides per game, comprised of 1 v Spain, 4 v Nigeria, 3 v Tahiti and 2 v Brazil. Only fair to say that there have been just the 2 offsides for Uruguay's opponents so far, though there have been 9 for Italy's, and that Spain are by far the most adept at catching their opponents offside. I've almost talked myself out of backing it in the course of posting this but, again, thought I'd offer it up for consideration! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Brazil to lead half time and Spain to win full time 30/1 paddy power they seem to score early in their games but their opponents can win the second half because of their quality Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Uruguay v Italy Overall I think Italy are the better team and have given Brazil and Spain a better game than Uruguay (Uruguay and Italy have each played Brazil and Spain). So I'd make Italy the favourites. I've read that the hot conditions will favour Uruguay, but I think this factor might be over-played. I would say Italy are favourites, so there is value in backing them at the longer odds of the two teams - Italy +0.5 1.67 188Bet Score at 90 mins: 2-2 Bet won :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Having tackled the 3rd place play-off first I've backed >2.5 goals at 2/1 and >3.5 at 9/2' date=' plus >2.5 Italy goals at 5/1 and any unquoted score at 9.4. Stakes split roughly 55% on the first and 15% each on the rest.[/quote'] Apologies for the inaccuracies in that post, the 1st two bets were actually >3.5 at 2/1 and >4.5 at 9/2, so just the solitary winner but enough for a profit given the staking. The 2 "stats" bets I mentioned both landed so might have to be more open minded about such bets (and short prices) in future! There were 5 offsides by half time and around 51 throw ins by the time 90 minutes was up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hebert10 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Was a weird game that, didn't fancy a bet on a 3rd place game in a tournament with 8 teams. IMO you either win it or you don't doesn't matter if you come 2nd or last, couldn't really see the motivation in coming 3rd. Looks as if Cavani might of added a bit of £££ to his price tag though :loon Looking forward to the final should be some game, going to wait until line ups are announced to look in to bets though. A bit surprised at Brazil being at almost same odds as Spain though, even though they are at home they are playing the current European and World champions who are unbeaten in the last 29 competitive games with the loss coming in that game at the world cup where they absolutely dominated Switzerland and somehow got beat 1-0. Wasn't really too sure what to expect from Brazil pre-tourney but they still look to me as if there not quite there yet and I just can't bet against Spain tonight. Be back in a bit with my input on the game though! be good to see some other opinions on the final aswel :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Re: Confederations Cup 2013 I've backed 39 or more throw ins at 9/10 with SJ. 5 games in the tournament have fallen below that line with 10 going over. The persuasive factor is that all of Brazil's games have gone well over with an average of 59.25 and totals of 71, 53 twice and 60 in that order. Only fair to point out that Spain have been involved in 3 of the 5 "unders" games but, leaving aside the atypical game against Tahiti (which saw 27) the totals of 37 and 35 weren't too far short of the line. The semi against Italy saw 69 though that does include extra time. Despite the contradictory stats I think the totals in Brazil's games makes a convincing enough case to take the bet at the price offered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Be back in a bit with my input on the game though! be good to see some other opinions on the final aswel :ok Can't pick a winner myself, just going to enjoy watching the game - hopefully it will be a good one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PokerWolf1 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Re: Confederations Cup 2013 I will probably end up backing one or two goalscorers, either anytime or goal minutes, and find myself tempted by Hills' enhanced odds of 6/1 for the Neymar to score/Brazil to win double. Have also been tempted by this. Will spice up the game a bit more for if nothing else but I have a feeling the extra days rest, home advantage and Spains extra time is going to play a big part here. I'm not Neymar's biggest fan but he's had a good tournament and certainly has the potential to hit the net amidst some tired legs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Thanks for the reminder, I've backed that, Marcelo anytime at 21 and bought Fred, Hulk and Paulinho's goal minutes at 12, 8 and 6 respectively. Probably it for me, unless any Spain players are on offer at a standout price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyskills Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Re: Confederations Cup 2013 More of an interest bet than anything else, I don't rate Brazil's defending of set pieces too highly. I can see Brazil giving away a lot of free kicks this game and Spain will have loads of chances to fire it into the box, here's hoping Pique picks up from the Italy game and finishes one of his chances! Pique FGS @ 22/1 and Pique anytime @ 9/1, both with Bet365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hebert10 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Can't pick a winner myself' date=' just going to enjoy watching the game - hopefully it will be a good one.[/quote'] I think it will mate, nice warm up for the World Cup where I reckon there both in with a great shout. Brazil v Spain Spain to win in 90 mins @ 7/4 Betvictor, WillHill, Lads Spain 1-0 @ 9/1 WillHill Torres 1st Scorer @ 7/1 WillHill, Skybet, Betvictor, Paddy I'm a big fan of Spain and there ability to play the 'perfect' game so consistently. Whilst I think this current Brazil squad have enormous potential I still think they are growing and by the time the World Cup comes about they could be ready. So based on this I'm predicting a narrow Spain win here, we all know how Spain like to keep the ball and I reckon they'll take a one goal win here against Brazil. I can't really see Brazil really threatening Spain here much either obviously unless they give the wonder kid too much space but I think we've already seen the best of Neymar in this tournament and personally I think he'll have a quiet one tonight. I really like the odds of a Spain 1-0 here and was expecting at most 6/1 so I'll jump on that 9/1. Also, as much as I don't like Torres and as much as people like to see him falter. He does still do a job and he has the experience and the quality to get the winner tonight, so at 7/1 he gets my vote here. Good luck everyone should be a good one tonight! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted July 1, 2013 Author Share Posted July 1, 2013 Re: Confederations Cup 2013 I will probably end up backing one or two goalscorers' date=' either anytime or goal minutes, and find myself tempted by Hills' enhanced odds of 6/1 for the Neymar to score/Brazil to win double.[/quote'] :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted July 1, 2013 Author Share Posted July 1, 2013 Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Brazil 3 Spain 0 Fine win for Brazil - well deserved on the night :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumyat Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Fine win indeed and not bad for team no.22 in the FIFA rankings.....http://www.fifa.com/worldranking/rankingtable/index.html Think they might need to adapt/scrap their formula. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted July 1, 2013 Author Share Posted July 1, 2013 Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Player of the Tournament Just looking at this market. Best current odds for top 5 favourites: Neymar - 4 Iniesta - 8 Pirlo - 15 Torres - 15 Balotelli - 15 http://www.oddschecker.com/football/confederations-cup/player-of-the-tournament According to BetVictor's website … "The Winner of the Golden Ball award will be settled as the winner of this market" http://www.fifa.com/confederationscup/awards/goldenball/index.html Since the tournament started in 1997, five out of six of the winners have come from the winning country. The sixth was from the losing finalists. So it looks as though to win, the player's country has to get to the final and preferably win it http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_Confederations_Cup#Golden_Ball Neymar has stood out so far, and if Brazil win the tournament he looks certain to win it. But Spain could easily win - does that make Iniesta good value @ 8 ? For the record, Neymar won the 'Player of the Tournament' award Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted July 1, 2013 Author Share Posted July 1, 2013 Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Top Scorer market http://www.oddschecker.com/football/confederations-cup/top-goalscorer http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_FIFA_Confederations_Cup#Goalscorers I think the Brazilian Fred is good value at 26.0 for Top Scorer. He is on 2 goals, and Neymar is on 3 (Neymar's odds are 5.5!). Also one of the Uruguayans like Suarez or Forlan could easily finish top scorer if they really go to town against Tahiti tonight - if Torres can score four against Tahiti, how many can Suarez score? Eight? !! ?. And they're more likely to play another game than Torres or Villa (who played against Tahiti for Spain). Fred and Neymar will probably play 2 more games (if Brazil reach the final). Torres and Villa are surely unlikely to start again, and of the Spanish players who started the first game, I don't think there is an outstanding goalscorer. Italy are less likely to make the final. I'd see the top goalscorer probably coming from: Neymar Fred Suarez Cavani Forlan Any thoughts on this market? For the record, Torres and Fred were tied as top goalscorer on 5 goals each. Torres won the 'Golden Shoe' award as he played fewer minutes than Fred. Bookmakers settled the market on the top goalscorer, so Torres and Fred shared it as a 'dead heat' for settlement purposes. Quite happy suggesting Fred as good value :), but I got it wrong with Torres, as I didn't think he would score again after the Tahiti game - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_FIFA_Confederations_Cup#Awards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PokerWolf1 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Have also been tempted by this. Will spice up the game a bit more for if nothing else but I have a feeling the extra days rest' date=' home advantage and Spains extra time is going to play a big part here. I'm not Neymar's biggest fan but he's had a good tournament and certainly has the potential to hit the net amidst some tired legs.[/quote'] Happy to see this come off with such ease :cow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Re: Confederations Cup 2013 A profitable game for me courtesy of the Neymar score/Brazil win double and Fred's goal minutes but I'll hold my hands up to a lousy call on the throw ins! Just 31 according to Whoscored.com and I'm happy to trust that as I kept an eye on it in running. Was going to say that it turned out to be a Spain style game rather than a Brazil style one in that respect, and that it would be worth keeping an eye on the market when Brazil play other teams, but as FIFA show the game having an unrealistic 46 throw ins I'm not inclined to trust their figures and will probably leave the market well alone in future! Still, a most enjoyable tournament to help while away the summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hebert10 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Looks like I got this one completely wrong :unsure, worst I've seen Spain play in a long time, but take nothing away from Brazil was a great win! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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