Confederations Cup 2013

[MPLouis]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Spain 2 Uruguay 1 Spanish masterclass left Uruguay chasing shadows

[oddsmakeradam]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

Mate' date=' with all due respect to any alternative betting perspective, I can assure you Spanish players and nearly any other non-American players won't care at all even if the whole US nation is watching them on TV. I seriously doubt that any of the Spaniards will be even aware of these facts. Contrary to what many Americans believe, most people in Europe and around the World don't go to bed and wake up, thinking about USA.[/quote'] I am talking in terms of a sportsbook and colume perspective, not a nationality/fan base perspective. Of the major offshore books here in the Caribbean, A very high majority of players are from the United States and are flocking to bet football because it is on the television now and there for them to watch and bet. This is why you are seeing some very high inflated lines at these sportsbooks, considerably higher than so in European shops. I am also pointing out how with the favorites, Spain especially, and Brazil, you are rarely going to find a game where this team plays up to their expectations. Point spreads are not predictive measures, they are a number set to make the customer make a price driven decision. In order for anyone to make a correct decision based on price, it has to be relevant to expectation. Let me put it in roulette terms in case somethings are being misunderstood... In a majority of Caribbean offshore books where handle on these football games is 20-40% higher than usual, lines are becoming very inflated to teams which are common to everyone. Spain today was as high as -225 at shops, I believe Bet365 closed around -175. That is a price 28% higher. Already Spain was inflated at -175, but you take it even higher, you have books capitalizing on players making poor, uneducated bets at a bad number. Laying 27% to high would be the equivilent of playing roulette with the regular 38 number board, but dropping the payout from 36/1 to 26/1. No one can justify making that bet over a long term basis. The game, or team you are betting on to be a proper wager would have to have the chance of living up to the payout or your break even point. Here you are playing at a 30% disadvantage. The truth with Spain, and these sportsbooks which have major influence and serious volume and handle is that these lines are inflated, and on the three way, there is not likely to be any spot that presents any value with Spain or Brazil. It is not an alternative view on betting, its market inflation & expectation. It's the truth.

[FaNaTiK]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 After watching several videos with highlights from Tahiti qualifier games in Oceania for the World Cup, I agree with the opinions before and I believe they are by far the worst team in the competition and the difference between them and Nigeria is very huge. After not being able to score twice even against New Caledonia recently and losing 0-4 at home, I think that odds of 1.40 for Tahiti not to score a goal against Nigeria are huge value. Furthermore, Nigeria should be more than capable of scoring at least 3 goals to the mediocre Tahiti side. Nigeria has not been playing at its best recently, but the difference in classes is too obvious. Tahiti to score goal: NO @ 1.40 Sportingbet Nigeria (-2) @ 1.571 Sportingbet OVER 3.5 goals "@ 1.75 Sportingbet

[kevshat]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 4pts Nigeria (-2.75AH) to beat Tahiti 10/11 BetVictor As with all Tahiti matches in this tournament this one looks a case of how many their opponents will win by and even with their late arrival it would be a surprise if Nigeria don’t win this match by at least three. Tahiti lost 7-0 to a young Chile side in the build up to this tournament and the video of that match doesn’t make good reading so even at a canter Nigeria should be way too good here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/tahiti-vs-nigeria-betting-nigeria-can-open-their-tournament-with-an-easy-win-in-belo-horizonte-20130617

[HastGill1]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Coral now go 1.6 for Nigeria to win to nil :lol..and I thought 1.45 was a good price! Can't really understand where they are getting that from, I remind you this is a side 1 place above Afghanistan in the world rankings, it is mad not to take that price, I'm in for 10 Points.

[MPLouis]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

I am talking in terms of a sportsbook and colume perspective' date=' not a nationality/fan base perspective. Of the [b']major offshore books here in the Caribbean, A very high majority of players are from the United States and are flocking to bet football because it is on the television now and there for them to watch and bet. This is why you are seeing some very high inflated lines at these sportsbooks, considerably higher than so in European shops. It is not an alternative view on betting, its market inflation & expectation. It's the truth.

Interesting stuff - can you name these sportsbooks please? It would also be useful to know which bookmakers you get your odds from for your tips.

[MPLouis]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

Coral now go 1.6 for Nigeria to win to nil :lol..and I thought 1.45 was a good price! Can't really understand where they are getting that from' date=' I remind you this is a side 1 place above Afghanistan in the world rankings, it is mad not to take that price, I'm in for 10 Points.[/quote'] I noticed the Paddy Power odds going up again yesterday

[HastGill1]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 The odds are going up because Nigeria as usual are a bloody shambles, financial greed overtaking everything else (according to reports the bonus issue is still to be resolved) and will have to be sorted out after the tournament, and they have a few key players out also. They are playing part timers though, their goalkeeper is a PE teacher and there are two brothers and a cousin in the team!

[NoFear]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

The odds are going up because Nigeria as usual are a bloody shambles' date=' financial greed overtaking everything else (according to reports the bonus issue is still to be resolved) and will have to be sorted out after the tournament, and they have a few key players out also. They are playing part timers though, their goalkeeper is a PE teacher and there are two brothers and a cousin in the team![/quote'] THIS. I had a 10 points on nigeria to win to nil @1.50 as soon as the odds came out AND before we knew about nigeria sending a weak team and bonus issues. And due to added corruption risk, I have been trying to lay my bet ever since. Certainly not much value now with all the risk

[MPLouis]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

THIS. I had a 10 points on nigeria to win to nil @1.50 as soon as the odds came out AND before we knew about nigeria sending a weak team and bonus issues.

I read an article which took the players side in the bonus dispute. The writer suggested the Nigerian football authorities were only in it for themselves, and the players deserved more.

[MPLouis]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

THIS. I had a 10 points on nigeria to win to nil @1.50 ... I have been trying to lay my bet ever since.

Some liquidity seems to be forming on Betfair on this market

[Labrador]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

........................The writer suggested the Nigerian football authorities were only in it for themselves' date=' and the players deserved more.[/quote'] Maybe they'll be instructing their players to let in a goal;) . A few judicious bets on that would certainly help their financial straits.

[HastGill1]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Be lying if I said it hadn't crossed my mind! Hopefully not..

[oddsmakeradam]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Okay, to put the money issues of Nigeria into some clarity here... The issues for the Nigerian team are between the players and coaches of the team and the NFF (Nigerian Football Federation). The NFF via Nigerian Government of Sport had outstanding payments to the club for past international games. The agreement they had was for $10,000 each win. The reason they missed their flight on Thursday was because the NFF did not pay the players for games against Kenya and Nairobi. What caused the frustration was the players were never told they were not getting paid. The NFF did not contact them, and did not inform them at all about being paid or being cut. The NFF can cut bonuses if a reason is cited, but one never was. The players are being paid by their sponsor (Globacom) for each game in this tournament, along with travel, accomidations and expenses. The Federal Government, NFF and Sports Committee are not expected to pay anything at all anymore and in essance sent their national team to an international tournament for free without communication. So the issue lies somewhat with greed here and the Nigerian players not being paid twice, per game. For a moment I thought the players were not being paid at all, but they are from their sponsor. They are angry they are not being paid again by the NFF, something they should be getting. As far as taking a dive or letting "corruption" take its course here, you have to question if the Nigerian team wants to get back at their governing body for screwing them over, or look good for their sponsor who are the only ones paying them and are being "nice" in a way to put their name on the team. FIFA does demand a manditory sponsor for their tournaments, so really, Globacom did not have to sponsor anyone of course, but chose Nigeria. I can tell you the reason the odds are as low as they are here in the Caribbean (specifically my neck of the woods in the Dominican Republic) on Tahiti to win currently at 15.00, Nigeria at 1.06 or 2/35 to win, -2.5 on the handicap at 2.15 is because of the weak team the Nigerians sent and the fatigue factor they have setting in from travel within the past 36 hours. I will have my take on the whole situation in a bit when I put in my wager.

[oddsmakeradam]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Confederations Cup Betting – Day #3 Tournament Record: (1-0-2) + $140 Nigeria -1750…..Tahiti +1400…..Draw +975…..TOTAL 3.5 Day three of the Cup brings us the final opening game of the tournament as Nigeria and Tahiti kick make their debuts. What would normally be a over-looked meaningless game has now turned into the most talked about of the tournament. Nigeria comes into this game with a ton of controversy surrounding their team. Tahiti comes into this game with a team full of teachers, labour workers and part time athletes. Gotta love it! Favorites first. There is no denying the fact that Nigeria is one of the most corrupt nations in all of football today. This team is completely money driven and the athletes are motivated by greed. The team was scheduled to fly out to Brazil on Thursday, but intentionally missed their flight because their governing football body, the NFF (Nigeria Football Federation) held out on paying the players. Players of the team get paid $10,000 per win in international games by the federal government and football federation. With a win and a draw outstanding, players were due to be paid $15,000. After three days of no contact from the NFF, the team stayed at the international airport and did not leave. The NFF still refused to cooperate and the players were wired the money Saturday thanks in part of an ambassador of the federal government. The team flew out Sunday and have only been in Brazil 34 hours prior to this 2:45pm start time. The question of corruption lies in the fact that the Nigerian players are not being supported by their football federation or federal government in this tournament. All funds for travel, expenses, accommodations and salaries are coming from their sponsor who agreed with FIFA to sponsor the Nigerian squad for the tournament. The players are being left out to dry and being short changed by their government and football federation, but, will get paid by their sponsor. If you are buying into the corruption, ask yourself, what does this team value more? Performing for the people who are paying them, or getting back at the people who are not? In my mind, greed takes over in this case. This game labeled as an easy win should be worth $20K for these players, but it will be worth $10K. If you are making $21 an hour, and get dropped down to $10.50 and moved to an office 12 hours away from your home for two weeks, would you come into work with full motivation? Likely not. With that said, I want to back Tahiti for a flyer, but the odds at BancaFiveStar on the island where I am betting the Confederations Cup has Tahiti only at +1400, a far cry from the +3300 offered at Bet365. I will take the exact scores here which are fairly priced. We saw the first real significant line move of the tournament on the handicap over the past 12 hours. Nigeria dropped from -3 (-130) to -2.5 (-140). A big half goal move with the total sitting steady at 3.5. By the odds yesterday this game was shaped up to be a 3-0 or 4-0 game for Nigeria depending where you heart was at, but now the shape of the game has changed considerably making the reasonable outcome 2-0. Major European markets have seen significant movements on Nigeria to win to nil, moving in direction of Tahiti being able to find the back of the net. Regardless, these team should in no way be able to live up to the price set on them. Tahiti would put the best teams in a letdown spot, but when a team like Nigeria has so many other factors working against their motivation aside from the game, it’s better to stay clear. Nigeria 2-0 Win (+550) ($18/$100) Nigeria 3-1 Win (+1600) ($6.25/$100) Tahiti 1-0 Win (+5500) (1.82/$100)

[MPLouis]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 I've found two more bets on the Tahiti v Nigeria that I think are good value - on corners and cards. Corners I had a look at the stats in the Under 20 World Cup in 2009, a tournament both countries were involved in. In the Tahiti U20 v Nigeria U20 match, Tahiti got 0 corners and Nigeria 12 (although Tahiti did have a man sent off at half time and another in the second half). In Tahiti U20's other two games in the tournament, they got 1 corner against Spain and 3 against Venezuela, so they averaged 1.33 corners per game. I think Nigeria averaged 9 corners per game I think the corner handicap odds on Nigeria are quite generous, the best being from William Hill - Corner Handicap Nigeria -5 1.85 Will Hill Red cards In Tahiti Under 20's three group games, they had 4 red cards - two against Nigeria and two against Venezuela. So Paddy Power's odds of 6.5 for a red card in tonight's match look attractive I think - A red card in the match 6.5 Paddy Power

[HastGill1]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Fcuk me :(, how confident are the clean sheet backers!? I'm virtually watching from behind the sofa! Tahiti have been really good going forward and could easily have scored, Nigeria have largely been utterly hopeless..I have never seen a professional game where a side has defended as badly as Haiti have done though, shambolic.

[immortal--]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 bloody hell :@

[Alexc]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Did anyone else lay off their clean sheet at any point? I got 7 for BTTS at Skybet at half-time, but never thought it'd be needed. Nigeria total clowns.

[HastGill1]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

Tahiti v Nigeria MPLouis put in a good summary of Tahiti above, I'm following the same school of thought. As I said above Tahiti only have one full time player who plays up front and is in Greece now but he is pretty old and a bit of a journeyman after spending a lot of his career in France, the rest of the team is based in the local league so they should be massively outclassed by everyone they play. If you look at their recent results it's impossible to see a way they can compete with sides on this level, they compete with New Caledonia, Soloman Islands and the best side in their area New Zealand, they smash the Cook Islands national team (!) and Samoa but this is on a different level entirely..they must be as shocked as the rest of us that they will soon be competing against Spain and Uruguay! Nigeria looks the easiest game of the three on paper, coach Stephen Keshi has broken the mould a bit by ignoring some of the more popular European based players and gone with many younger - and what he feels is more commited - players. It certainly worked at the ACN where they won the championship and Keshi has carried on the selection policy in this tournament. Their form has been patchy since winning the ACN, drawing 3 and winning 1. They still have a decent pool of players though with Mikel, Musa (Spartak Moscow) and striker Brown (Dynamo Kiev) the standout players, they have some home based players in there too but most are players based in Europe although quite a few are struggling for regular game time. I doubt I would have much confidence in Nigeria if they were playing a decent side but Tahiti are the worst side ever to qualify for the Confed Cup and will go home pointless. I have found what I think is a bit of an edge in the handicap market, Ladbrokes offer a 'correct score - anytime' market which means if your selection is the score at any point in the match you get payed out. I have selected 2-0 (1.33) and 3-0 (1.72) which is better than the current handicap odds (-1EH is currently 1.2 and -2EH about 1.61), as I'm also betting on Nigeria to win to nil this approach makes sense and gives better odds. I wouldn't be surprised to see this finish as low as 2-0, Nigeria aren't a brilliant side and Tahiti will probably defend for most of the game, I'm taking a risk playing the handicaps too in what is the first game for both of these sides in the tournament but depending on the time of the first Nigeria goal I should be in a position to trade out for a small profit if I feel its justified. Not sure what the odds will do between now and Monday in terms of the handicap prices might rise slightly, nothing I can do about it now anyway. Nigeria to win to Nil - 1.45 - Ladbrokes - 5 Points LOST(available 1.5 on paddy power and skybet) Correct Score anytime - Nigeria 2-0 - 1.33 - Ladbrokes - 5 Points WIN Correct Score anytime - Nigeria 3-0 - 1.72 - Ladbrokes - 5 Points WIN

Heavy losses for me tonight after the additional 10 points I put on the win to nil at 1.6. Tahiti were very attacking throughout the game and deserved to score, their defence was an utter shambles though and Nigeria could easily have had double figures..I feel bad and its hard to take losing so much on a game where the team you are backing won by 5 clear goals. Nigeria looked crap to me to be honest, thought they only looked half interested and their passing and finishing were very poor.

[HastGill1]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

Did anyone else lay off their clean sheet at any point? I got 7 for BTTS at Skybet at half-time' date=' but never thought it'd be needed. Nigeria total clowns.[/quote'] Only got 4 at bet365 at HT, it was only a piss in the ocean compared to what I lost though. Should have layed more as it was obvious what was coming.

[NoFear]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 mistake

[MPLouis]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

Tahiti v Nigeria Monday 17th June 20.00 Both to Score? NO 1.5 Paddy Power As far as I can see Tahiti should be well out of their depth in this competition and it is hard to see them scoring a goal. I'd say the odds of a clean sheet should be around 1.1, certainly not 1.5 Tahiti are ranked 138th in the world, and qualified for this competition due to a sequence of results going for them earlier in the Oceania World Cup qualifying competition, although New Zealand are running away with qualification for the World Cup itself. According to the wiki page, the Confederations Cup squad is mainly semi-professionals and they have only one player based outside Tahiti ... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tahiti_national_football_team In the 3rd round, Tahiti have won one game from six, scoring two goals (against Solomon Islands). You can get some idea of Tahiti's ability my looking at their record against New Zealand since 2001 (New Zealand are the top-ranked country in Oceania, and the closest that Tahiti get to playing top nations like Spain) : 5-0 10-0 2-0 3-0 http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/10/16/oceania/wc-qualifying-oceania/new-zealand/tahiti/1303239/head2head/ Tahiti's U20 record in the 2009 Under 20 World Cup in Egypt: Spain U20 8 - Tahiti U20 0 Venezuela U20 8 - Tahiti U20 0 Nigeria U20 5 - Tahiti U20 0 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_FIFA_U-20_World_Cup#Group_B Tahiti look like being a 'San Marino' in this competition - being hopelessly outclassed. I can see them losing each match heavily, and it would be a surprise if they score. I think there could be value backing against them in this tournament, particularly clean sheets and handicaps.

Result: Tahiti 1 Nigeria 6 Bet lost Tahiti played much better than I expected and deserved their goal. Their own defence was cut to pieces but they looked skilful and dangerous in attack, scoring a headed goal in the second half and nearly adding a second near the end.

[pg_yid]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Bad luck to those on the clean sheet bets. Tahiti were in great contrast to the European minnows who tend to defend well but are very poor going forward. It would be interesting to see Tahiti vs San Marino, I think I would favour Tahiti but very difficult to say. My only bet was Nigeria -1 EH @ 1.44, I was going to do the clean sheet bet at what looked like very favourable odds but I already had a big sum on this bet and was scared off by the mention of possible corruption on this thread!

[MPLouis]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

Tahiti v Nigeria Having just seen the video of Tahiti losing 7-0 to Chile U20 recently and remembering that Nigeria are African Nations champions, I think there is value on the Nigeria - handicap at the moment. I think it's reasonable to expect Nigeria to win by between 3 and 8 goals. The 'Sport Authority' preview mentioned that goals scored against Tahiti could decide who qualifies - which is a big incentive for their opponents to rack up as many as possible. Nigeria -3 AH 1.9 Ladbrokes

Result: Tahiti 1 Nigeria 6 Won :ok

[MPLouis]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

Tahiti v Nigeria European Handicaps (3-way handicap) (Note: Nigeria have to win by at least the margin stated for a EH handicap bet to win. So if the bet is Nigeria -3 and Nigeria win 3-0, the bet loses). Here are some other handicap odds I've just checked. I've backed most of these, as I think they're good value. Paddy Power are offering the best odds but only up to a -4 handicap. Nigeria -2.0 1.66 Paddy Power Nigeria to win by 4 or more goals (i.e. Nigeria -3) 2.5 Paddy Power Nigeria -4.0 4.33 Paddy Power Nigeria -5.0 7.0 William Hill

Most of these won too :ok

[MPLouis]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

I've found two more bets on the Tahiti v Nigeria that I think are good value - on corners and cards. Corners I had a look at the stats in the Under 20 World Cup in 2009, a tournament both countries were involved in. In the Tahiti U20 v Nigeria U20 match, Tahiti got 0 corners and Nigeria 12 (although Tahiti did have a man sent off at half time and another in the second half). In Tahiti U20's other two games in the tournament, they got 1 corner against Spain and 3 against Venezuela, so they averaged 1.33 corners per game. I think Nigeria averaged 9 corners per game I think the corner handicap odds on Nigeria are quite generous, the best being from William Hill - Corner Handicap Nigeria -5 1.85 Will Hill Red cards In Tahiti Under 20's three group games, they had 4 red cards - two against Nigeria and two against Venezuela. So Paddy Power's odds of 6.5 for a red card in tonight's match look attractive I think - A red card in the match 6.5 Paddy Power

These both lost though. I think the corner count was 3-2 to Nigeria, and a red card never looked likely.

[MPLouis]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

Heavy losses for me tonight after the additional 10 points I put on the win to nil at 1.6. Tahiti were very attacking throughout the game and deserved to score' date=' their defence was an utter shambles though and Nigeria could easily have had double figures..I feel bad and its hard to take losing so much on a game where the team you are backing won by 5 clear goals. Nigeria looked crap to me to be honest, thought they only looked half interested and their passing and finishing were very poor.[/quote'] Although Tahiti were surprisingly good in attack and deserved to score, their defence couldn't really cope and Nigeria should really have scored at least 8 goals. Nigeria were probably at their best late in the game and after Tahiti had scored when they probably got a bit complacent.

[Alexc]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

Only got 4 at bet365 at HT' date=' it was only a piss in the ocean compared to what I lost though. Should have layed more as it was obvious what was coming.[/quote'] Sorry to hear that, mate. Good call on the anytime CS bets, I'll keep an eye on those in future. I was surprised Skybet was so high, but no hesitation on that. When San Marino play the best they usually muster is a corner, the fact Tahiti nearly scored twice was troubling, but still Nigeria should be keeping them out.

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Well, Nigeria didnt even try to defend. they either fouled or jogged behind. yeah. tahitis offense and maltas defense would have beat nigieria today ^^ Im curious about the press and public opinion towards nigeria. If they think they did soemthing great then they will be i nfor an awekening vs spain and urus. I hope for bigger odds due to this win and the fact they are still africa cup champions(albeit with many missings)