Confederations Cup 2013

[MPLouis]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 [TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Wednesday 19 June 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Brazil v Mexico (20:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 10 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.95 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Italy v Japan (23:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.72 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.85 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6.4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.74 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Thursday 20 June 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Spain v Tahiti (20:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.01 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 29 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 126 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]103.25 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Nigeria v Uruguay (23:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.05 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.73 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.35 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[MPLouis]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Spain v Tahiti Early prices suggest the handicap line will be MUCH higher for this game - I've seen +8 as the marker. And Both to Score odds much lower.

[HastGill1]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 These will probably be the biggest handicap lines any of us have ever seen..

[Fedar]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Hmmmm....maybe now it's the time for us to show more "out-of-the box" thinking. Will really Spain want to humiliate the nice and friendly amateurs from the islands?! I somehow strongly doubt. Yes, indeed Tahiti defense was so poor against Nigeria, that sometimes even if they didn't want, Nigerians players just had no other option but to score. However, Nigeria plays much more direct football than Spain. I can imagine the Spaniards passing the ball to each other for 10 minutes without conceding possession and without shooting at goal, especially if they are 5-6 goals ahead already. The bottom line is that the market reasons like this: Nigeria scored 6 and missed many more, Spain is several classes above Nigeria, so Spain must score more than 10. However, I am not so sure about this reasoning, because it may miss important aspect - Spain, unlike Nigeria, is sure to go through and don't need to bet Tahiti heavily to improve goal difference. Moreover, Nigeria had many young and unestablished players who wanted shine in this game, while Spain consists only of superstars for whom humiliating amateur players is probably not a priority. 5-6 goals for Spain are inevitable, but it is arguable whether they will cover this handicap set at the moment, and it is unlikely in my view that they will go above ten. So maybe some value might be hunted at big Tahiti handicaps.

[HastGill1]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

Hmmmm....maybe now it's the time for us to show more "out-of-the box" thinking. Will really Spain want to humiliate the nice and friendly amateurs from the islands?! I somehow strongly doubt. Yes, indeed Tahiti defense was so poor against Nigeria, that sometimes even if they didn't want, Nigerians players just had no other option but to score. However, Nigeria plays much more direct football than Spain. I can imagine the Spaniards passing the ball to each other for 10 minutes without conceding possession and without shooting at goal, especially if they are 5-6 goals ahead already. The bottom line is that the market reasons like this: Nigeria scored 6 and missed many more, Spain is several classes above Nigeria, so Spain must score more than 10. However, I am not so sure about this reasoning, because it may miss important aspect - Spain, unlike Nigeria, is sure to go through and don't need to bet Tahiti heavily to improve goal difference. Moreover, Nigeria had many young and unestablished players who wanted shine in this game, while Spain consists only of superstars for whom humiliating amateur players is probably not a priority. 5-6 goals for Spain are inevitable, but it is arguable whether they will cover this handicap set at the moment, and it is unlikely in my view that they will go above ten. So maybe some value might be hunted at big Tahiti handicaps.

Probably right mate, very difficult to call when we are talking about 7-8-9-10 goals, virtually certain Spain will win by at least 5 but Tahiti will surely play a different game to how they played against Nigeria, if they do play the same way we really could be talking double figures..I personally thought Nigeria were fcuking awful. Obviously Spain will rotate, even Torres might get a game! But looking at their attacking options whatever they play doesn't look weak.. 4 MF Javi Martínez 2 September 1988 (age 24) 11 0 Germany Bayern Munich 6 MF Andrés Iniesta 11 May 1984 (age 29) 83 11 Spain Barcelona 8 MF Xavi Hernández 25 January 1980 (age 33) 123 12 Spain Barcelona 10 MF Cesc Fàbregas 4 May 1987 (age 26) 81 13 Spain Barcelona 13 MF Juan Mata 28 April 1988 (age 25) 26 7 England Chelsea 16 MF Sergio Busquets 16 July 1988 (age 24) 56 0 Spain Barcelona 20 MF Santi Cazorla 13 December 1984 (age 28) 55 9 England Arsenal 21 MF David Silva 8 January 1986 (age 27) 72 18 England Manchester City 22 MF Jesús Navas 21 November 1985 (age 27) 25 2 England Manchester City 7 FW David Villa 3 December 1981 (age 31) 89 53 Spain Barcelona 9 FW Fernando Torres 20 March 1984 (age 29) 102 31 England Chelsea 11 FW Pedro Rodríguez 28 July 1987 (age 25) 28 13 Spain Barcelona 14 FW Roberto Soldado 27 May 1985 (age 28) 10 6 Spain Valencia Xavi won't play, Iniesta will be rested, but then they will bring in Carzola and Silva, the squad strength is ridiculous..marathonbet offering 1.34 for -6.5 is laughable though.

[kevshat]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Wednesday previews: 4pts Brazil vs Mexico - Both teams to score 21/20 BetVictor Brazil looked very good in the first match but the Japanese did get some chances against them and I think Mexico are good enough on the counter attack to create a few themselves. Whether they are good enough to keep them out at the other end I’m far from convinced so I like the idea of both sides scoring, particularly at odds against. Mexico have good attacking players in their squad so however this ends I think both can trouble the scorers. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/brazil-vs-mexico-betting-both-teams-can-find-the-back-of-the-net-in-fortaleza-20130619 4pts Japan (+0.75AH) to beat Italy 1.85 Bet365 I’ve a feeling this match will be a bit closer than the odds suggest. Italy weren’t convincing in the first match. It looked like a long season could be taking its toll a little bit. As long as Japan are refreshed from their busy schedule going into their opening match then we should see much more from them both in attack and in defence and I think they can push Italy all the way and get some kind of result from this one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/italy-vs-japan-betting-japan-can-show-much-more-than-they-did-in-their-opening-match-in-brazil-20130619

[slizorn]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 In regards to the Spain Tahiti game, I think the way to possibly go at this is to bet on someone to score 2+ goals in the game, a very likely scenario. Nigeria's game vs Tahiti had 2 players who fit this bill if I am not wrong. All players are being offered at evens and higher to do so. I feel this is the best market to make money out of this game.

[MPLouis]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

Nigeria's game vs Tahiti had 2 players who fit this bill if I am not wrong.

One Nigeria player, Oduamadi, got a hat-trick.Echiejile got one, and there were two own goals ... http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/22896351

[MPLouis]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Spain v Tahiti BTS NO @ 1.45 with Betfair - just wondering if that's good value? Odds are a bit higher than I was expecting.

[HastGill1]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 I'm surprised it's so high, I was looking last night and ladbrokes had 'both to score - no' at 1.3, these odds have been dictated by the attacking intent they showed against Nigeria which took - me certainly - by surprise, but then that is the danger of betting on a side in the first game of the tournament. They are massive differences between Nigeria and Spain though, I wouldn't expect them to get through Spain as easily as they did Nigeria simply because they won't have anywhere near as much possession - probably near 25% I imagine. Remember North Korea at the last WC? Performed brilliantly in the first game against Brazil losing 2-1 then looked knackered the last 2 games and showed very little attacking intent, not saying this is what will happen but I wouldn't expect this game to follow the pattern of the first. I like Silzorns idea on goalscorers, I was looking at those odds too last night but I don't think those bets can be placed until an hour before ko when we know the teams, 'Marca' and 'As' normally get things wrong in their team selections and I wouldn't trust them if I was placing such a bet. The defence probably won't see many changes but the midfield and frontline will be rotated as victory is guaranteed regardless. The handicap markets will be terrible odds unless you are very confident of them scoring at least 8, you can't even bet in play really as Spain will probably score early and the odds will tank.

[SilverShux]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Mexico have a shortage of goals in their last 5 matches, and Brazil didn’t concede against both Japan and France with both games finishing 3-0. I don’t like seeing Hernandez alone up front for Mexico because he gets minimal quality service, unlike what he is used to at Man United. Brazil meanwhile look to be gelling and I don’t see a problem in them netting 3 against Mexico. Just incase I am totally wrong, I am backing up my bet with a 1-1, although at this possible result, I do not think Brazil will settle and push for the over 2.5. 7 units: over 2.5 @ 1.66 B365 1 unit: Final score 1-1 @ 9.0 B365 :hope

[pg_yid]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

I'm surprised it's so high, I was looking last night and ladbrokes had 'both to score - no' at 1.3, these odds have been dictated by the attacking intent they showed against Nigeria which took - me certainly - by surprise, but then that is the danger of betting on a side in the first game of the tournament. They are massive differences between Nigeria and Spain though, I wouldn't expect them to get through Spain as easily as they did Nigeria simply because they won't have anywhere near as much possession - probably near 25% I imagine. Remember North Korea at the last WC? Performed brilliantly in the first game against Brazil losing 2-1 then looked knackered the last 2 games and showed very little attacking intent, not saying this is what will happen but I wouldn't expect this game to follow the pattern of the first. I like Silzorns idea on goalscorers, I was looking at those odds too last night but I don't think those bets can be placed until an hour before ko when we know the teams, 'Marca' and 'As' normally get things wrong in their team selections and I wouldn't trust them if I was placing such a bet. The defence probably won't see many changes but the midfield and frontline will be rotated as victory is guaranteed regardless. The handicap markets will be terrible odds unless you are very confident of them scoring at least 8, you can't even bet in play really as Spain will probably score early and the odds will tank.

Spain shouldn't concede and 1.45 looks pretty decent but they have conceded to the likes of Haiti and Puerto Rico recently, screwing my clean sheet bet in the Haiti game. What would be interesting would be if Nigeria vs Uruguay is a draw, then Uruguay would have to go all out against Tahiti. We could see a lot of goals in that game, particularly first half, if that was the case, though the bookies would probably consider this in their prices. At any rate I think Uruguay should beat Nigeria.

[pg_yid]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

In regards to the Spain Tahiti game' date=' I think the way to possibly go at this is to bet on someone to score 2+ goals in the game, a very likely scenario. Nigeria's game vs Tahiti had 2 players who fit this bill if I am not wrong. All players are being offered at evens and higher to do so. I feel this is the best market to make money out of this game.[/quote'] There is a disparity with the prices, with 365 offering 1.2 for some of these bets compared to evens at Coral. This suggests good value. I think Torres might be the way to go, you'd imagine that he will start considering Spain say they are going to make changes. Although he had a better season I still feel he will be more motivated than most Spain players to score goals in order to gain confidence.

[slizorn]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

One Nigeria player' date= Oduamadi, got a hat-trick.Echiejile got one, and there were two own goals ... http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/22896351

Alas, I was wrong, pretty sure I saw someone score a double and a hat trick, I suppose a goal got credited as own goal later on. Derp, expect livescore.com to be wrong as always.

[MPLouis]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

Alas, I was wrong, pretty sure I saw someone score a double and a hat trick, I suppose a goal got credited as own goal later on. Derp, expect livescore.com to be wrong as always.

For, I think, the 4th Nigerian goal, as the ball was crossing the line the Nigerian player stretched to get his foot to it (which would have made it his goal) but it had clearly already crossed the line before he touched it.

[MPLouis]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

Spain shouldn't concede and 1.45 looks pretty decent but they have conceded to the likes of Haiti and Puerto Rico recently' date=' screwing my clean sheet bet in the Haiti game. What would be interesting would be if Nigeria vs Uruguay is a draw, then Uruguay would have to go all out against Tahiti. We could see a lot of goals in that game, particularly first half, if that was the case, though the bookies would probably consider this in their prices. At any rate I think Uruguay should beat Nigeria.[/quote'] I wouldn't be surprised if Uruguay outscore Spain (v. Tahiti) - even if goal difference is irrelevant by then.

[SgtTr]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Italy-Japan- Italy to win @ 1.75 Balotelli anytime goalscorer 2.1 According to French journalists Japanese players are tired after a long season (they interviewed a Japanese player in transit in France, don't recall his name unfortunately), so are Italy players but the way they celebrated when they scored the winning goal means against Mexico means that they are keen to do well here and quality wise there is a strong disparity between those two teams. Balotelli had a strange season, being left out of City's starting lineup and coming back strongly at Milan, making me think he isn't tired but instead peaking in form now. I'm having an accumulator Balotelli and Neymar anytime goalscorer at 4.2.

[swindonfan]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 The problem here is backing any of the spain players to score is a bit of a lottery because solado, villa, torres ,mata, pedro nobody knows who will start against Tahiti. My plan is too back in the tournament top goalscorer market any striker from spain or Uruguay who starts. I think thats where the value is because any of the spainiards or Suarez, Cavanni even forlan could score 5 or 6 on their own against Tahiti. And unless Neymar comes up with something special or the Nigerian who got the hatrick gets some more there are not a lot of other contenders so it seems pretty likely the top tournament goalscorer will be from Spain or uruguay.

[rednirama]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Hernandez first to score for team - 4/1 Paddy Power Got this a bit earlier when it was 9/2 but there still looks to be a lot of value in this. If Mexico do score, it's very likely to come through Chicharito. He's the lone striker and has a tremendous scoring record for Mexico (33 in 51). The same bet came in against Italy as he took the penalty for them. Mexico can pose a threat to Brazil's defence in this game I think and Chicharito is the likely source to take advantage if a chance comes his way.

[hebert10]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Spain v Tahiti Own Goal Scored-Yes @ 4.33 Bet365 Wasn't going to have a bet on this game but after looking through the market this really jumped out at me. I haven't seen too much of Tahiti but last game against Nigeria there defending was some of the worst I've seen for a long time. We all know what the World and European champs Spain can do and this game there pretty much going to have the Tahitians chasing a ball for 90 mins. With the poor defending an o.g could be a real possibility here from a miskicked clearance or a deflection, even the keeper pushing the ball in to his own net :eek. As the game goes on the Tahitians are bound to tire with the sheer amount of possession Spain will have and this could mean tired defending. IMO a great bet here.

[MPLouis]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

Spain v Tahiti Own Goal Scored-Yes @ 4.33 Bet365 Wasn't going to have a bet on this game but after looking through the market this really jumped out at me. I haven't seen too much of Tahiti but last game against Nigeria there defending was some of the worst I've seen for a long time. We all know what the World and European champs Spain can do and this game there pretty much going to have the Tahitians chasing a ball for 90 mins. With the poor defending an o.g could be a real possibility here from a miskicked clearance or a deflection, even the keeper pushing the ball in to his own net :eek. As the game goes on the Tahitians are bound to tire with the sheer amount of possession Spain will have and this could mean tired defending. IMO a great bet here.

There were two own goals against Nigeria, but I think perhaps Nigeria rely more on pace than Spain, which might make own goals more likely as defenders struggle to keep up. Even so, the odds look pretty good, considering the market expectation is for Spain to score 8 or more goals.

[MPLouis]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Spain v Tahiti Latest odds from Betfair: Tahiti @ 480.0 Draw @ 140.0 Can anyone remember a football match with odds like this? :lol

[A.W.E.S.O.M.-O 1973]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

Can anyone remember a football match with odds like this? :lol

Nope, but even if they give away a penalty and have their goalie sent off in the first minute, you still won't be worried.

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 I think betting on a penalty to be awarded in spain tahiti game has big value. 2, 4 i get. Spanish players are much more tricky then nigerians and they will pin tahiti to the penalty area . The way tahiti got very motivated but kind of overwhelmed into nigerians in the box looked clumsy. The goalie was very motivated and risky in one on ones and was lucky to not bring a nigerian to fall. Fatigue might play a part in this too. Overall i will take any bet that indicates that more then 10 goals will be scored. This is simply the most awfull matchup in modern football ever. Tahiti doesnt know how to park the bus. They know how to attack the other islands. Countrys like malta or liechenstein did learn how to do that in the last years so they manage some rather narrow loses but tahiti almost never faced world class oposition. Nigerians were awfull and didnt have many players who score reguarly but spain has a team full of goal providers.

[dodo97]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Spain says they will not hold back. http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/1480669/coach-says-tahiti-let-20-goals-spain?cc=5901 Del Bosque and midfielder Andres Iniesta said Spain would not hold back. They said doing so would show a lack of respect for Tahiti, a nation of only 180,000 which is representing Oceania in the eight-team warm-up for next year's World Cup.

[MPLouis]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Spain v Tahiti Having seen Spain's and Tahiti's first games, and studying Tahiti's form, I think it's reasonable to expect anywhere between 5 and 15 goals in this game - probably towards the lower end of that range. Despite Tahiti scoring relatively easily against Nigeria, and coming close to getting more than one, it's hard to see them scoring against Spain because Spain keep the ball much better than Nigeria. Looking back to the Fifa Under 20 World Cup in 2009, which usefully featured all three teams in the same group, Nigeria U20 beat Tahiti 5-0, a margin which was repeated in the 6-1 game on Monday. Spain U20 beat Tahiti U20 8-0 in the same tournament, and the idea that they could win by that margin feels about right. Spain certainly should exceed Nigeria's 5 goal margin, and if they don't concede themselves that will be easier. If it's reasonable to expect an 8 goal margin of victory, then some of the current odds look alright to me, 188Bet's being the best at the moment. I'd say there is probably some value there - Spain -7.25 AH 1.85 188Bet I also think there is a good chance of Spain scoring some late goals in the match - say between the 80th minute and the end. I've noticed Spain often do this. They get a lead, then pass the other team to death, the other team get tired and then Spain move in for the kill late in the game - that's the way it seems to work. I can't see any markets for late goals at the moment, but some may appear between now and kick off. If not, the easiest way would be to back late goals in-play on Betfair. For example, if Spain are leading, say, 5-0 after 80 minutes, you could back 'over 5.5' and 'over 6.5' goals.

[HastGill1]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Coach has confirmed there will be changes, but Reina in goal is the only confirmed change currently. Marca think Carzola-Martinez-Silva in the middle with Mata-Torres-Villa up top, which looks about right to me considering the line-up in the first game. I'm on the clean sheet pretty heavy at 1.45 and 1.46 on betfair, seemed way too high to me..as for the handicaps I think they will rise a bit so I'm waiting on that one but would have no hesitation at all in going heavy on -7AH if I can get 1.55, and -7.5AH for about 1.85.

[Skittle]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013 As a word of caution for this game................there are so many variations/possibilities available it would pay to check out the prices where 'similar' type bets may 'overlap'. For the record my favourite bet so far is 'over 9.5 goals' @ 3.3 on Betfair. I think this represents value and interest all in one. Looking forward to the game and the seemingly endless possibilities both pre match and in play. There is a risk of wearing out the keyboard here and I'm on holiday working off a dongle. :D :ok

[Skittle]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

Coach has confirmed there will be changes' date=' but Reina in goal is the only confirmed change currently. Marca think Carzola-Martinez-Silva in the middle with Mata-Torres-Villa up top, which looks about right to me considering the line-up in the first game. I'm on the clean sheet pretty heavy at 1.45 and 1.46 on betfair, seemed way too high to me..as for the handicaps I think they will rise a bit so I'm waiting on that one but would have no hesitation at all in going heavy on -7AH if I can get 1.55, and -7.5AH for about 1.85.[/quote'] Spain -7 @ 1.8/1.78 now on Betfair..............

[Alexc]

Re: Confederations Cup 2013

Coach has confirmed there will be changes' date=' but Reina in goal is the only confirmed change currently. Marca think Carzola-Martinez-Silva in the middle with Mata-Torres-Villa up top, which looks about right to me considering the line-up in the first game. I'm on the clean sheet pretty heavy at 1.45 and 1.46 on betfair, seemed way too high to me..as for the handicaps I think they will rise a bit so I'm waiting on that one but would have no hesitation at all in going heavy on -7AH if I can get 1.55, and -7.5AH for about 1.85.[/quote'] If you're not limited there, Hills have Tahiti to score @ 5. I backed them not to at between 1.36-9 on Betfair, so have a nice risk-free bet on the clean sheet.