smith17's Thread

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Bets: 279 Profitable: 49 S/R: 18% Staked: 286 Returned: 260.96 P/L: -25.04pts Possibly one or two bets for tomorrow but I'll have to have a proper look at the cards first.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread 14.55 Curragh: Scream Blue Murder, 8/1 Boylesports, win Scream Blue Murder was beaten about ¼L lto in a Group 3 over c&d. If he runs up to that standard again he should go close today. The ground will suit. Trainer Tommy Stack is in good form and Wayne Lordan is in the saddle. 16.40 Curragh: Caim Hill, 25/1 Bet365, e/w (1/4, 12345) Caim Hill won impressively lto over 14f at Listowel. He comes into today's race in good form and he should run a big race and certainly outrun his price. He won a couple of chases over three miles, including a Grade 2, so stamina won't be an issue. The ground will suit. Trainer Philip Fenton has had two winners and two seconds from nine runners this season. Fran Berry is in the saddle. 16.50 Limerick: Sumkindasuprstar, 28/1 Bet365, e/w Sumkindasuprstar ran in the Grade 2 Champion Chase at Gowran Park lto. He finished a well beten sixth but that was his first run since April and he should come on a lot for that run. He finished last season the Grade A Guinness Handicap Chase at Punchestown, where he finished fourth. Before that he won the Grade 2 Webster Cup at Navan. He has one win and three places from four runs at Limerick. The trip should suit as he usually finishes his races well and has placed over three miles a few times. The ground will suit. Jockey Ben Dalton, who has been on board for all four of this horses wins and all but two of his places, takes off a valuable three pounds.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Bets: 282 Profitable: 49 S/R: 17% Staked: 289 Returned: 260.96 P/L: -28.04pts 2.10 Cheltenham: Rum And Butter, 5/2 Bet365, win Rum And Butter finished second lto over a furlong further than today's trip at Newton Abbot. He finished 4½L behind Kangaroo Court who won nto off an 11 pound higher mark. Ground and distance will suit and he should run a big race. Trainer Jonjo O'Niell is in good form and he has a solid record at Cheltenham. AP McCoy is an obvious plus in he saddle. 3.15 Cheltenham: On The Bridge, 12/1 Bet365, e/w On The Bridge has won seven of his eleven races since moving to Jeremy Scott's yard, placing in the other four. Lto he finished third over 3m3f which was a bit far for him. He drops back to 3m which will be ideal and he should run a big race. The ground will suit. Trainer Scott is in decent form and Nick Schofield is in the saddle. The have a good record together. 3.50 Cheltenham: Sizing Symphony, 11/2 BetVictor, win Sizing Symphony is having his third run over fences today. He won on his chasing debut at Tipperary where he jumped very well and showed a great attitude to win by ½L in his first race in over 18 months. He then went to Listowel where he finished third of sixth on ground that was a bit too slow for him, although he still jumped well and it was a good effort. He steps up to 3m for the first time today. He usually finishes his races well so it should suit. He is also closely related to Gold Cup hero Synchronised. He won in his only visit to Cheltenham, winning a novice hurdle at this meeting in 2011. The ground shouldn't be a problem. This is trainer Henry De Bromhead and jockey Andrew Lynch's only runner/ride of the day.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Bets: 285 Profitable: 50 S/R: 18% Staked: 292 Returned: 262.96 P/L: -29.04pts 1.45 Ascot: Ahzeemah, 8/1 Boylesports, win Posted this before his last run;

3.50 Curragh: Ahzeemah, 6/1 Boylesports, win Ahzeemah won the Lonsdale Cup lto at York. He drops backs in trip by 2f but that shouldn't be a problem as he has a decent turn of foot. He always gives his running, you have to go back to June 2012 to see him outside the first two and if he puts in a similar performance to lto he will go very close today. Trainer Saeed Bin Surror is in decent form and he sends just one horse over to Ireland today. Silvestre De Sousa is a big plus in the saddle and he travels over for this one ride.

He finished second that day, 6L behind the winner. The winner got first run on him and the race was put to bed before Silvestre De Sousa could get Ahzeemah going. He did finish well to get second though. He steps back up in trip by 2f which will suit. He won the 2m Lonsdale Cup on good to soft ground and his sire stats suggest today's ground will suit. 2.20 Ascot: Maarek, 3/1 Stan James, win Posted this before his last run;

12.45 Longchamp: Maarek, 15/2 BetVictor, win Maarek won a Group 3 at Newbury lto in good style. He was held up and came with a late eye-catching run to win by 1L. He didn't have the clearest of runs that day but when a gap appeared his turn of foot was devastating. He had four of today's opposition behind that day and should confirm that form. The ground will be perfect as will the trip and he has a good draw in stall 7. Declan McDonagh continues in the saddle having been on board lto, his first time riding him.

He won lto after getting a great ride by Declan McDonagh, who is in the saddle again today. I think that race was stronger than today's and he should go very close. The ground is perfect and he has won over c&d before. 2.55 Ascot: Dalkala, 4/1 Boylesports, win Dalkala won the Group 1 Prix de l'Opera lto. If she puts in similar effort today, she will go close. She won in her only visit to England when she went to York for the Middleton Stakes earlier this year. The ground is ideal and the trip will suit. Trainer Alain de Royer-Duper is in good form and he has had 2 winners and 3 seconds from just 9 runners in England this year. The top class Christophe Soumillon continues in the saddle having been on board lto. 3.30 Ascot: Maxios, 9/2 Betfred, win Maxios won the Prix de Moulin lto. He finished 5L ahead of the re-opposing Olympic Glory and is two pounds better off at the weights so he should confirm that form. Today's ground and trip will be ideal and he should go close. Dawn Approach is an obvious danger if he returns to his early season form but that is a big if. Trainer Johnathan Pease is in good form. Stephane Pasquier is in the saddle. 4.45 Ascot: Kinglami, 22/1 Coral, e/w Kinglami won impressively on soft ground three runs ago at Windsor. He finished 2¼L ahead of Ashpan Sam who won his next two races and then won a class 3 handicap off a mark of 90 last week. He went up six pounds for that win but he ran quite well in his next two starts off his current mark. A return to soft ground should see him run a big race. He steps up in class but as he runs off such a low weight I think he could go close at a big price. He was beaten just a neck in his only run over c&d back in July. Promising young jockey Philip Prince is in the saddle and he takes off a valuable three pounds.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Bets: 290 Profitable: 50 S/R: 17% Staked: 297 Returned: 262.96 P/L: -34.04pts 2.40 Doncaster: Ennistown, 7/1 William Hill, win 3.15 Doncaster: Pearl Blue, 11/1 Bet365, win 1.55 Aintree: Special Catch, 6/1 Coral, win 3.05 Aintree: Walkon, 9/2 Betfred, win

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Bets: 294 Profitable: 50 S/R: 17% Staked: 301 Returned: 262.96 P/L: -38.04pts 8.45 Santa Anita: Ever Rider, 5/1 Boylesports, win 9.25 Santa Anita: Bobby's Kitten, 4/1 Boylesports, win 10.05 Santa Anita: Broadway Empire, 10/1 Boylesports, win 10.50 Santa Anita: Al Thakhira, 6/1 Boylesports, win I'll post reasoning tomorrow evening.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread

8.45 Santa Anita: Ever Rider' date= 5/1 Boylesports, win

Ever Rider won lto over 13f in a grade 2 in his native Argentina. It was the same race that Calidoscopio won on his way to Breeders Cup glory. He will handle the ground and, with legendary jockey Gary Stevens on board, he should run a big race.

9.25 Santa Anita: Bobby's Kitten' date= 4/1 Boylesports, win

Bobby's Kitten couldn't have been more impressive lto as he won a grade 3 by 6½L. He drops in trip by ½f but that won't be a problem and the ground is ideal. Trainer Chad Bwon has had a couple of winners in the past two weeks. Javier Castellano is in the saddle.

10.05 Santa Anita: Broadway Empire' date= 10/1 Boylesports, win

Broadway Empire has won his last three races. Three runs ago he won a handicap by over 7L over today's distance and on ground similar to what he gets today. He then won the Grade 3 Canadian Derby by 3L over 11f despite missing the start. Lto he won another grade 3, The Oklahoma Derby, when he made all and won by 4L over 9f. He drops back to a mile today which will suit and he should run well. Jockey Rico Walcott, who was on board for the last three runs, is in the saddle.

10.50 Santa Anita: Al Thakhira' date= 6/1 Boylesports, win

Al Thakhira has been very impressive in her two runs so far. She won her maiden by 2¾L without her jockey having to get serious despite her running a bit green. She then went to Newmarket where she won a group 3 by 3¼L. This is her first time encountering firm ground but her sire stats suggest she could be even better on fast ground. She steps up to a mile for the first time as well but she should see it out with ease. Trainer Marco Botti is in great form. Ryan Moore is in the saddle.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread :wall Bets: 298 Profitable: 50 S/R: 17% Staked: 305 Returned: 262.96 P/L: -42.04pts 8.21 Santa Anita: Dance To Bristol, 7/1 Betfred, win 9.05 Santa Anita: Mizdirection, 4/1 Bet365, win 9.43 Santa Anita: Tap It Rich, 7/1 BetVictor, win 10.22 Santa Anita: Point Of Entry, 5/1 Ladbrokes, win 11.01 Santa Anita: Trinniberg, 9/1 William Hill, win 12.35 Santa Anita: Mucho Macho Man, 9/2 Stan James, win

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Bets: 304 Profitable: 52 S/R: 17% Staked: 311 Returned: 272.46 P/L: -38.54pts Melbourne Cup: Brown Panther, 16/1 & Voleuse De Coeurs, 14/1 & Royal Empire, 16/1, all e/w, with Boylesports, who offer five places. Brown Panther won the two mile Group 2 Goodwood Cup in impressive fashion two runs ago. He tracked the leaders until about 1½f out when he went to the lead. He finished very well to win by 3½L. Second place that day, Ahzeemah, won a Group 2 nto and finished second in the Irish St Leger after that, while third place, Atlano has won a Group 1 since. Lto he ran over an inadequate trip to keep him ticking over before traveling over to Australia. Owner Michael Owen has been positive about his trip over and his training since so it would seem he is in good order and he should run a big race. He likes to be up with the pace which is an advantage and his draw in stall 6 is perfect. Jockey Richard Kingscote has won seven times and placed three times from 12 rides on Brown Panther. Voleuse De Coeurs won the Irish St Leger lto by an eased 6L. The way he put the race to bed in a matter of strides and how he finished strongly was very impressive. The trip won't be a problem as he won the Irish Cesarewitch in 2012 by 10L. The ground will suit. The draw hasn't been ideal with VDC coming out of stall 21. He usually stays off the pace early so the draw should allow him to hopefully get a nice position in midfield. Talented young jockey James McDonald, who finished second in this race last year in his first ride in The Cup, is a big plus in the saddle. Royal Empire won over an extended 13f in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury three runs ago. He finished second in his next two races, both over 12f. Excuses can be made as to why he didn't win both races but they were both good runs. He steps up in trip to two miles for the first time but he should improve for the extra few furlongs. The way he finished at Newbury suggests he will be better the further he goes and he should run a big race. The ground will be ideal. He comes out of stall 11 which should enable him to get a nice position behind the leaders which is what he usually does. Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has been talking up Royal Empire's chances and has said this is his best chance of winning The Cup. Top Aussie jockey Kerrin McEvoy is a big plus in the saddle. He is quite sweet on RE's chances and has said the horse is in good form since arriving in Australia.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Bets: 307 Profitable: 52 S/R: 17% Staked: 314 Returned: 272.46 P/L: -41.54pts 13.50 Doncaster: Levitate, 11/1 >William Hill, win 14.25 Doncaster: Eton Rifles, 5/1 >Betfred, win 15.35 Doncaster: Nearly Caught, 22/1 Stan James, e/w 14.05 Wincanton: Far West, 3/1 >Bet365, win 14.40 Wincanton: Court By Surprise, 13/2 >Paddy Power, win

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Bets: 312 Profitable: 53 S/R: 17% Staked: 319 Returned: 284.46 P/L: -34.54pts 1.05 Cheltenham: Mr Moss, 16/1 Boylesports, e/w 1.35 Cheltenham: Tindaro, 28/1 BetVictor, e/w 2.40 Cheltenham: Killala Quay, 14/1 Bet365, e/w

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread

2.40 Cheltenham: Killala Quay' date= 14/1 Bet365, e/w

Killala Quay has been very impressive in his two runs over hurdles, winning them both. Lto was his first run in nearly four months and he should come on a bit for that run. The ground and trip will be ideal and he should go close. Trainer Charlie Longsdon is in good form and Noel Fehily is a big plus in the saddle. 3.15 Cheltenham: Diamond Harry, 8/1 Bet365, win 3.50 Cheltenham: Little Pop, 14/1 Bet365, e/w

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread

3.15 Cheltenham: Diamond Harry' date= 8/1 Bet365, win

Diamond Harry has a good record going fresh. He has won three times on his seasonal reappearance. He ran in a cross country race in France lto in June. He jumped well but he was given too much to do and he did well to get as close as he did at the end. I would expect James Revely to have him closer today and he should run well. He has won at Cheltenham twice in the past. The ground is a slight concern as he would normally like it a bit slower but he should handle it ok. The trip is also a slight concern but he won the Hennesy Gold Cup over 27f back in 2010 off a mark of 156. He runs from 137 today and he should run a big race.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread

3.50 Cheltenham: Little Pop' date= 14/1 Bet365, e/w

Little Pop has run well in his two runs over hurdles. He won nicely lto when he jumped well and made all. He steps up in class today but I think his mark of 115 is a bit low and he should go well. The ground and trip will suit. Trainer Nigel Twiston Davies is in decent form and Sam is in the saddle.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Bets: 317 Profitable: 53 S/R: 17% Staked: 324 Returned: 284.46 P/L: -39.54pts 1.50 Cheltenham: Spring Heeled, 8/1 BetVictor, win 2.30 Cheltenham: John's Spirit, 8/1 Bet365, win & Conquisto, 20/1 Paddy Power, e/w (1/4, 12345) 3.00 Cheltenham: Silver Eagle, 6/1 Bet365, win 3.35 Cheltenham: Timesremebered, 5/2 Boylesports, win

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread John's Spirit won the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Bets: 322 Profitable: 54 S/R: 17% Staked: 329 Returned: 293.46 P/L: -35.54pts 1.00 Cheltenham: Tijori, 40/1 Stan James, e/w 3.15 Cheltenham: Ifandbutwhynot, 10/1 Boylesports, win 3.50 Cheltenham: Carningli, 9/2 Bet365, win Reasoning to follow tomorrow.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread

1.00 Cheltenham: Tijori' date= 40/1 Stan James, e/w

Non-runner. 1.00 Cheltenham: Big Casino , 13/2 BetVictor, win Big Casino won impressively lto when he won by 3L at Carlisle. Secxond place won nto off a 5 pound higher mark. BC went up 16 pounds for that win but his jockey takes off 8 pounds which is huge in a race like this. The ground and distance will suit. Trainer Nigel Twiston Davies has a solid record at Cheltenham. Ryan Hatch has had 2 winners from just four rides at Cheltenham.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread

3.15 Cheltenham: Ifandbutwhynot' date= 10/1 Boylesports, win

Ifandbutwhynot finished third in his reappearance last month. He ran well for a long way and got to the lead before two out but he faded before the last and finished 9¾L behind the winner. He should come on a lot for that run as he has won second time out in the last two seasons. He won well at this meeting last year over today's distance. The ground is ideal and he should run a big race. Trainer David O'Meara is in good form and this is his only runner of the day. Timmy Murphy is in great form with 5 winners from 10 rides this month.

3.50 Cheltenham: Carningli' date= 9/2 Bet365, win

Carningli has won both his races. Back in April he won his debut despite hanging left in the final 2f. Last month he won over c&d. He was up with the pace throughout and when he was asked to go and win he did so in good style, winning by 3½L. Fifth place, 7¼L back, won the listed flat race here yesterday. Track, trip and ground will all suit and he will run a big race. Trainer Rebecca Curtis has a 26% SR in NHF over the last five years, including 2 winners at Cheltenham from 11 runners. She is in decent form and had a winner today at Fontwell. This is her only runner at Cheltenham. Barry Geraghty has a 22% SR at Cheltenham and he is in good form with 5 winners from 19 rides this month in the UK. He has a 29% SR in NHF races over the last five seasons.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Six months in so I thought I would do a round-up. Horse Racing Stats Bets: 325 Profitable: 54 S/R: 17% Staked: 332 Returned: 293.46 P/L: -38.54pts Golf Stats Bets: 12 Wins: 1 Places: 2 P/L: +17.38 Overall Bets: 337 Profitable: 57 Strike Rate: 17% Staked: 344 Returned: 322.84 Profit/Loss: -21.16pts ROI: -6.15% My horse racing stats do not make nice reading but I'm determined to turn it round. My golf bets are much better with a profit from each tournament I've bet on, including finding the winner of the PGA Championship. I think I might look into betting on golf more but I think I might stick to the bigger tournaments, we'll see. Every single bet I have placed since the middle of May has been put in this thread so I suppose being down 21 points from 344 staked, while a bit disappointing, isn't terrible.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread 1.50 Haydock: Blue Fashion, 8/1 William Hill, win 2.25 Haydock: Crowning Jewel, 16/1 BetVictor, e/w 3.35 Haydock: The Rainbow Hunter, 17/2 BetVictor, win

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread

1.50 Haydock: Blue Fashion' date= 8/1 William Hill, win

Blue Fashion is having his first run in England today. He had his first run for Nicky Henderson lto when he finished fourth in a grade 1 in Auteuil back in June. He has some decent form in France an he should come on a bit for his switch to Henderson's yard. The ground and distance will suit and he should run well. 14.40 Ascot: Zarkandar, 2/1 Boylesports, win 15.00 Haydock: Silviniaco Conti, 10/3 Paddy Power, win

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread

2.25 Haydock: Crowning Jewel' date= 16/1 BetVictor, e/w

Crowning Jewel won lto in his seasonal reappearance. He has gone up four pounds for that win but he should come on a bit for that run and he should run a big race at a nice price. This is just his second run over three miles but his first suggests that he saw it out with ease and he should improve for the step up in trip. Trainer Keith Reveley is in good form and James is in the saddle.

3.35 Haydock: The Rainbow Hunter' date= 17/2 BetVictor, win

The Rainbow Hunter finished second lto in his first start of the season. He should come on a bit for that run. The ground and trip is ideal. Trainer Kim Bailey sends this one horse to Haydock and Nick Schofield is in the saddle.

14.40 Ascot: Zarkandar' date= 2/1 Boylesports, win

Zarkaandar is having his first run of the season. He has won first time out three times so that shouldn't be a problem. He takes on the unbeaten Annie Power but I think he is good enough to beat her and there should be some improvement still to come. Trainer Paul Nicholls is in good form and Noel Fehily is a plus in the saddle.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread

15.00 Haydock: Silviniaco Conti' date= 10/3 Paddy Power, win

Silviniaco Conti won this race in great fashion last year after winning the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby. He then went to Newbury for the Denman Chase which he won with ease. Hius next run was at the festival. He would have had a big say in the finish of the Gold Cup if he hadn't fallen at the third last with much of today's cast involved. He finished third in his last run at Aintree in the Betfred Bowl. The trip and ground will suit. Trainer Paul Nicholls is in good form and Noel Fehily is a plus in the saddle.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread 12.20 Newbury: Free Thinking, 10/3 Betfred, win 13.20 Newbury: Triptico, 11/1 BetVictor, e/w 14.25 Newbury: Reve De Sivola, 9/2 Boylesports, win 15.00 Newbury: Hadrian's Approach, 12/1 Bet365, e/w (1/4, 12345)

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread I'm going to look for a few Ante-Post bets for Cheltenham over the next few weeks with the first being... Neptune Novice's Hurdle: Oscar Rock, 10/1 Paddy Power, 2pts win Oscar Rock is due to run today in a class 2 novice's hurdle. After looking at his opposition he should win it quite easily and his price for the Neptune could drop because of it. He has only had one run over hurdles so far and he couldn't have been more impressive, winning on the bridle by 18L, with second winning nicely nto. Bar a small mistake at the last his jumping was quick and efficient. He won twice from three runs in NHF races last season. He finished second in his debut race beaten 3L by Urubu D'Irlande, who hasn't run since. He finished ahead of a few 120+ rated hurdlers. He then went to Newbury where he finished 1L ahead of 125 rated hurdler Gone Too Far with a further 14L back to 143 rated hurdler O'Faolains Boy, who finished fourth in the Albert Bartlett last season. He finished last season in a listed NHF race at Newbury in February, which he won by 8L. First, second and third in the Grade 2 NHF race at Aintree on Grand National day were in the first five at Newbury along with Cheltenham Champion Bumper sixth Pure Science. His former trainer Harry Fry said after that race that the Neptune was going to be the aim for this season and with today's race being over 2m6f it would appear new trainer Malcolm Jefferson is also targeting this race. I think the price is fair and it will hopefully look quite big come March.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Bets: 333 Profitable: 54 S/R: 16% Staked: 340 Returned: 293.46 P/L: -46.54pts 13.20 Sandown: Drum Valley, 10/1 Bet365, win 13.50 Sandown: Hinterland, 11/2 Stan James, win 15.00 Sandown: Captain Conan, 5/2 Betfred, win 14.05 Aintree: Join Together, 12/1 Bet365, e/w (1/4, 12345) 15.15 Aintree: Shangani, 9/1 Paddy Power, win

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Bets: 338 Profitable: 55 S/R: 16% Staked: 345 Returned: 299.96 P/L: -45.04pts

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread 1.05 Cheltenham: Atlanta Falcon, 11/1 BetVictor, win 1.40 Cheltenham: Lyvius, 9/1 Paddy Power, win 2.40 Cheltenham: Shalimar Fromentro, 18/1 BetVictor, e/w

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Bets: 341 Profitable: 55 S/R: 16% Staked: 348 Returned: 299.96 P/L: -48.04pts 1.35 Doncaster: Purple Bay, 5/1 Boylesports, win 2.40 Doncaster: Kings Grey, 13/2 Betfred, win 2.25 Cheltenham: Colour Squadron, 5/1 Boylesports, win 3.35 Cheltenham: Glens Melody, 7/2 Coral, win

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Bets: 345 Profitable: 55 S/R: 16% Staked: 352 Returned: 299.96 P/L: -52.04pts 1.50 Ascot: Grey Gold, 11/2 BetVictor, win Grey Gold finished third in a listed chase lto in his first run of the season. That was over 2½ miles which, on heavy ground, was a bit far for him. He drops back to 2 miles 1 furlong today which will be much more suitable. He will love today's ground. Trainer and jockey are both in decent form. 3.00 Ascot: Storm Survivor, 13/2 BetVictor, win Strom Survivor fell at the first in the Becher Chase at Aintree lto. Before that he was beaten less than a length in a good handicap at Chepstow off today's mark. If he is over his fall lto he should run a big race. The trip is perfect and the ground will suit. Trainer Jonjo O'Neill is in decent form and Richie McLernon is in the saddle. 3.35 Ascot: Flaxen Flare, 14/1 Paddy Power, e/w (1/4, 12345) Flaxen Flare finished fourth in the Greatwood Hurdle lto off today's mark. He finished 6¼L behind Dell'Arca but is eight pounds better off at the weights today and has every chance of reversing that form. The ground will suit and the trip is ideal. Trainer Gordon Elliot won this race last year and he has a 29% SR in the UK this season. Richard Johnson is a big plus in the saddle.