smith17's Thread

[smith17]

I've been thinking about starting a personal thread on here for a couple of weeks now and what better time than the Dante meeting at York. I've done quite well at this meeting the last couple of years and hopefully that will continue this year. I still consider myself to be a complete novice but I'm hoping this thread will see me become a bit more disciplined and will show me my strengths and weaknesses which will hopefully see me improve. It will also be good to track my profit/loss as I haven't really been doing that as well as I should. Most of my bets are on horse racing but I also bet on golf's majors and occasionally on football. I'm going to put them all in here as I want to keep a record of everything. Selections will normally be posted the night before. I use level stakes so it will be 1pt win and .5pt e/w but on very rare occasions I double it if I really fancy something. :hope

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread 1.45 York: Prompter, 10/1 >boylesports, e/w Prompter was last seen over hurdles back in November last year. He hasn't really taken to hurdles winning just 1 minor handicap and being beaten a few times at short odds in his five runs since joining Jonjo O'Neill's stable. His last run on the flat was over 12f on this track back in August 2011. He ran a cracker to finish third, 1L behind Crackentorp. He runs off a three pound lower mark today. He has run well fto twice so the lack of a prep run shouldn't be a problem. Trainer O'Neill has had 4 runners on the flat this month and they all placed. The top class Ryan Moore is in the saddle which is an obvious plus. 2.15 York: Compton, 18/1 >William Hill, e/w Compton finished last season with a fourth place finish in a strong handicap at Ascot in October. He finished just ¾L behind subsequent listed winner Jack Dexter. Before that he won a handicap at Ascot. They were both on soft ground and he won his maiden on good to firm so whatever way the ground comes up it should suit. This will be his second run since moving to Robert Cowell's yard. He ran four weeks ago which would have shaken off any cobwebs and he should be in top condition for this. Cowell has had a couple of winners over the last week. Five pound claimer Willie Twiston-Davies is in the saddle. 2.45 York: Woodland Aria, 9/2 >boylesports, win Woodland Aria won her only race quite impressively at Wolverhampton. She looked great pre-race and entered the stalls without any fuss. She was slowly away and had to be pushed along for the first furlong or so. She ran a bit green in fifth place and had to be nudged along a couple of times. She was 3L behind the leader rounding the final bend with 2f to go. She was switched from the inside to the middle of the track and she picked up impressively in the final furlong to win by ½l from the odds on favourite, Elik, who ran quite well in a listed race nto. She steps up in trip by about ½f and it will suit. This is her first run on turf but I can't see why it won't suit. Her sire's offspring have a great record on good and good to firm ground and the other two horses her dam produced have both won on good to soft. Trainer John Gosden is in good form as is the top class William Buick. They have teamed up to win this race for the past two years. Liber Nauticus is a big danger if she improves on her maiden win but will she be ready for today?, will she have trained on? and will she get the extra distance? 4.25 York: Peniaphobia, 9/2 >Bet365, win Peniaphobia won nicely on debut lto. He broke well from the stalls and was up with the pace all the way. He kicked for home over a furlong out and he finished strongly to win by over 2L. Just three horses from that race have run since then. Third place won well nto as did fifth place in a class 3 Ascot maiden. Second place was disappointing nto. He should come on a bit for the experience and I expect him to go close today. Trainer Richard Fahey has had a good start to the season with 36 winners from 201 runners on the turf. His 2yos are in great form with 6 wins from 13 runs this month. Tony Hamilton keeps the ride having been on board lto. He has rode 5 winners from 12 rides on 2yos this season.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread 3.15 York: Society Rock, 8/1 William Hill, win Society Rock is having his first run of the season today. He won fto in 2009 and he ran a cracker fto last season to finish third in this race. He didn't have the clearest of runs that day and was only beaten about ½L. He then went on to be beaten just 2L by the wondermare Black Caviar at Royal Ascot. He won the group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock. He finished the season with a fifth place in a group 2 at Ascot on Champions Day. He is pretty versatile when it comes to the ground. Trainer James Fanshawe is in decent form and he has a solid record at York. Kieran Fallon is a big plus in the saddle. The in-form jockey was on board for the group 1 win.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Society Rock won at 10/1 to get the thread off to a solid start. Bet: 5 Wins: 1 S/R: 20% P/L: +6pt Tomorrow's selections to follow...

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread 13.45 York: Judge 'n Jury, 16/1 Boylesports, e/w Judge 'n Jury has a good record at York. He has run here five times and he has won twice and placed twice while the other was a fifth place in this race in 2010. This is his first run of the season but he has run well fto before and his trainer is in decent form. The ground will suit whatever way it comes up. Talented five pound claimer Thomas Brown is in the saddle. 14.15 York: Cubanita, 7/2 Boylesports, win Cubanita is having her first run of the season today. She finished last season winning a listed race over today's distance at Doncaster. She was in mid-division and when her jockey asked her to quicken about 2½f out, she did so nicely. The favourite had gone a few lengths clear 2f out but she finished strongly and got there in the last 100 yards to win by ½L. Sajjhaa who finished second, won her next four races, which included two group 2s and two group 1s. Only three other horses from that race have run since. Third place, Reckoning, was disappointing on her seasonal debut, seventh place, Boonga Regata, has run five times since, winning three times and eight place, Strathnaver, has moved to America and won a group 3 in her only run since. She has run well fresh in the past, finishing a 2L second to Bonfire on debut and finishing third in a listed race at Chester fto last season. This is just her sixth run of her career so there could be some improvement to come. The more the ground dries out the better although she has won on soft before. Trainer Ralph Beckett is in cracking form, with 9 winners from 25 runners this month. Jim Crowley, who has been on board for all of Cubanita's runs, has had a solid start to the season. 14.45 York: Windhoek, 9/2 Boylesports, win Windhoek won a listed race lto. He made all and quickened up impressively over 1f out and finished strongly to win by over 3L. Before that he finished less than ½L ahead of the re-opposing Greatwood and Ghurair. He improved again lto from that run and, with further improvement expected, I think he should confirm that form today. Sun is forecasted for tomorrow and the quicker the ground gets the better for Windhoek but his sire's offspring have a decent record on soft ground so the ground should suit either way. Trainer Mark Johnston is in decent form. Joe Fanning has been on board for all three of this horse's runs. 15.15 York: Navajo Chief, 11/1 Bet365, e/w Navajo Chief is making his seasonal debut today. He has run well fto in the past so that shouldn't be a problem. From seven runs at York, he has won twice and placed three times. He runs from a mark of 100 today. He won off 99 last season and placed off 105 as well so he should be competitive off 100 if his trainer has him ready. He is versatile ground wise. Jockey Michael Murphy is in good form, with 5 winners from 23 rides this month. He has a good record when riding for trainer Alan Jarvis, with 14 wins from 87 runs for a lsp of £35.75. 15.50 York: Sound Of Guns, 7/2 Paddy Power, win Sound Of Guns was progressive last season as a two year old. She won her maiden at the second time of asking at Yarmouth in July. She then finished a ¾L second in a fillie's listed race over today's distance. Rosdhu Queen won that race and won a group 2 and group 1 in her next two races. SOG ended last season with a third place finish in a group 2 at Doncaster, again over today's trip, with the re-opposing Fire Eyes and Morawij behind. She has had one run so far this season in the Nell Gwyn at Newmarket. She ran well and was quickening up nicely until she was bumped about 2f out and lost all momentum and she couldn't recover. The drop back to the minumum trip will suit and the ground should be ok as well. William Buick is back in the saddle having been on board for her maiden win. He has a good record riding for trainer Ed Walker, with 7 wins from 16 rides.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: smith17's Thread Another good day today smithy 12/1 winner, 16/1 place & a NR :clap great stuff sunshine.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Thanks Ted. Hopefully I can keep this form going. Navajo Chief won at 12/1 and Judge 'n Jury finished third (15p R4) while Sound Of Guns was a non-runner. I'm gonna count e/w placings as wins in the stats as they are usually enough to at least double the stake. Bets: 9 Wins: 3 S.R.: 33% P/L: +12.70pts Tomorrow's selections to follow.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread 1.45 York: Champagne Babe, 7/1 Bet365, win Champagne Babe won well on debut lto over today's distance at Thirsk. She made all to win by 3L. She didn't beat much that day but she did it well and should come on for that experience. That was on good to firm ground and its soft today, which I think could suit even more. Her sire's best form came on ground with a bit of cut, including a 6f group 2 win on heavy ground, which he won by 8L. His offspring have a good record on soft and heavy ground. Trainer Keith Dalgleish is having a good year with his 2yos. From five runs, he has had 2 wins and 2 second places. Joe Fanning is in the saddle. The pair have had 48 wins together from 231 runs over the last five seasons for a lsp of £66.88. 2.15 York: Rio's Rosanna, 14/1 Bet365, e/w Rio's Rosanna finished seventh of nine lto over a shorter than ideal trip at Ripon. That was her first run of the season and it should have put her in top condition for today. She has run at York three times, all over today's distance. She won once on soft ground and placed once off a one pound higher mark in a similar race in July last year. She was a bit unlucky in her other run here as she was hampered when she was starting to make her move. She will love today's ground and this is her best trip. Trainer Richard Whitaker has had a couple of winners in the last two weeks. Champion apprentice Amy Ryan is in the saddle. 2.45 York: Top Trip, 11/2 Betfred, win This time last year Top Trip won a group 2 over 11f at Longchamp, when he finished ½L ahead of Masterstroke, who finished last season finishing third in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. He followed that up with two good efforts over middle distances in group 1 company. He then finished fourth in a group 2 over 13f. He finished strongly that day which would suggest that today's trip will suit. He then finished the season with a slightly disappointing run but he had been going since December without much of a break and was showing the effects. He has had one run this season over an inadequate trip and it should have put him right for today. Trainer Francois Doumen has sent just four runners over to the UK in the last five seasons and he has had one winner and one place. Mickael Barzalona is in the saddle. 3.15 York: How's Life, 7/1 Betvictor, win How's Life won impressively on seasonal reappearance lto at Beverly. She broke well from the stalls and tracked the leader until going to the lead over 1f out. She quickened nicely and ran on well to win by 4½L off top weight. She was entered in the French 1000 guineas but was cut by their handicapper. This is her first time encountering soft ground but it should suit. She is a full sister to Eternal Gift, who's only win came on soft ground, and her sire's offspring have a good record on ground with a bit of cut in it. She steps up in trip by ½f and her finish lto suggests it will suit. Trainer Rae Guest holds this filly in high regard. He is in good form and he has a good record at York. Andrea Atzeni keeps the ride having been on board lto. 3.50 York: Lastchancelucas, 28/1 Betvictor, e/w Lastchancelucas is having his first run of the season today. He won his maiden on debut last season at odds of 100/1. He was up with the pace all the way round and he got to the front inside the final furlong. He ran on well to win by 1½L, with the now rated 103, Polski Max in second and Steer By The Stars, now rated 90, a further 2L back in third. He followed that up with a win in a novices race over c&d. He was always prominent and went to the lead over 2f out. He showed a great attitude and kept finding more to win by ½L. He finished last season in a listed race when he finished fifth of seven. The extra furlong that day along with Epsom undulations didn't suit but really he was a bit out of his depth. He drops in class to a class 3 handicap today, his first handicap run. He has been given a mark of 87 which he should be competitive off. Trainer Declan Carroll has a decent record at York. Jockey Jason Hart, who takes off a valuable five pounds, has been on board for all three of this horse's runs. 3.40 Newbury: Sound Of Guns, 5/1 Boylesports, win Sound of Guns is engaged to run at Newbury today. I'm assuming she was withdrawn because of the ground yesterday. She runs over 6f today which will suit as she won her maiden over today's distance. Today's ground will suit. Martin Harley is in the saddle.

15.50 York: Sound Of Guns' date= 7/2 Paddy Power, win Sound Of Guns was progressive last season as a two year old. She won her maiden at the second time of asking at Yarmouth in July. She then finished a ¾L second in a fillie's listed race over today's distance. Rosdhu Queen won that race and won a group 2 and group 1 in her next two races. SOG ended last season with a third place finish in a group 2 at Doncaster, again over today's trip, with the re-opposing Fire Eyes and Morawij behind. She has had one run so far this season in the Nell Gwyn at Newmarket. She ran well and was quickening up nicely until she was bumped about 2f out and lost all momentum and she couldn't recover. The drop back to the minumum trip will suit and the ground should be ok as well. William Buick is back in the saddle having been on board for her maiden win. He has a good record riding for trainer Ed Walker, with 7 wins from 16 rides.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Yesterday was shocking with no returns from six bets. Bets: 15 Wins: 3 S.R.: 20% P/L: +6.70 14.05 Newbury: Viking Storm, 7/1 Bet365, win Viking Storm was progressive last season, completing a hat trick before finishing the season with a third place finish in a listed race at Kempton. He made his comeback in the group 3 Winter Derby over 10f. He finished a well beaten seventh but he should come on a bit that run and the step back up in trip today will suit. The ground is perfect for him. Trainer Harry Dunlop is in decent form and Paul Hanagan is a big plus in the saddle. He has won on this horse twice form four rides. 14.40 Newbury: Poole Harbour, 8/1 Bet365, win Poole Harbour has run well on both starts this season. He started with a narrow defeat in a class 3 handicap at Windsor. He then finished third in a strong handicap at Newmarket off today's mark. They were both over today's distance and the ground will suit. Trainer Richard Hannon is in decent form and champion jockey Richard Hughes is in the saddle. 14.20 Newmarket: Lady Kashaan, 14/1 Stan James, win Lady Kashaan has had two runs so far this season. She won fto over today's distance at Musselburgh. Second place that day, Moidore, has since finished second in a decent handicap at York off a four pound higher mark. She was then stepped up in trip to two miles at Ripon. She ran a cracker to finish second beaten just a head by Ardlui. She has been put up two pounds for that run but now she is dropped in trip back to 14f she should still be competitve off today's mark. She has won on good to firm ground before so that should suit. Trainer Alan Swinbank had a couple of winners yesterday and Robert Winston, who was on board for both her runs this year, continues in the saddle. Two more to follow.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread 14.55 Newmarket: Secretinthepark, 4/1 Bet365, win Secretinthepark won well lto on his seasonal reappearance. That was run over c&d on similar ground to what he gets today. He has been put up seven pounds for that run but he has only run three times, winning them all, so there should be more improvement to come and he could still have a bit in the over the handicapper. Trainer Ed McMahon is in decent form and Seasn Levey, who has won on this horse before, is in the saddle. 15.50 Newbury: Trumpet Major, 12/1 Bet365, e/w Trumpet Major won well on his seasonal reappearance lto in the Bet365 Mile at Sandown. He had a couple of today's rivals behind and he should confirm running with those today. Today's distance is his best trip and the ground will suit. Richard Hannon is in decent form and Richard Hughes is a big plus in the saddle.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Another disappointing day today with no returns. Bets: 20 Wins: 3 S.R.: 15% P/L: +1.70pt

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread I'm having a lot of trouble with my laptop recently so apologies for the poor reasoning and the structure of the post. The prices are ones I took with Boyles about an hour ago so I don't know if they are still available or if there are better prices around but they are the prices I've got. 3.05 good wood: cousin knee, 9/2 boylesports cousin khee won nicely lto. He has been put up just two pounds and he could be dangerous today off bottom weight. Ground and trip is ideal and mikael Barzalona is a good booking in the saddle. 3.15 hay dock: newstead abbey, 7/2 boylesports, win newstead abbey completed a hat trick in impressive fashion lto in the same class at Musselburgh. He has been put up 10 pounds for that win but he looked like he could have more to come and he should go close today. Graham gibbons has ridden this horse four times and won three of those races. 3.20 curragh: Fort Knox, 8/1 boylesports, win fort knox won a listed trial for this race impressively lto. That was the first run of his season and he should come on for that run. It was just his third run so there should be a bit more improvement to come. This Johnny murtaghs first runner of his training career and he rides it as well. 3.50 haddock: reckless abandon, 5/1 boylesports, win reckless abandon was unbeaten in his 2yo season, including a couple of group 2s and 1s. This is his first run of the season but I would expect trainer Clive cox to have his stable star in top condition for this. 3.55 curragh: Lily's angel, 4/1 boylesports, win Lily's angel won a group 3 lto. Today's trip and ground will suit. Gary Carroll has won on this horse six times from eight rides. edit: I also backed Mobacco in the first at good wood which I'm going to include in the stats.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Bets: 26 Wins: 3 S/R: 12% ​P/L: -4.3 1.35 Epsom: Sentaril, 6/1 Boylesports, win Sentaril finished second lto in a listed race at Goodwood. She didn't have the clearest of runs but when a gap apeared about a furlong out she ran on well to be beaten just half a length. That was her first run of the season and she should come on a lot for that run. She appeared to handle Goodwodd's undulations quite well so Epson should suit. Ground and trip are ideal for her. Trainer William Haggas is in good form, with3 winners and 4 places from 10 runners in the last week. Johnny Murtagh is a big plus in the saddle. 2.10 Epsom: Area Fifty One, 8/1 Boylesports, win Area Fifty One won well on seasonal debut over c&d two runs ago. He was a bit disappointing lto at Chester but he has never run well at Chester. And he has been dropped a pound since that run. The ground is a slight worry but he ran well on soft ground before so hopefully good to soft will suit. Trainer and jockey have had 9 wins from 39 runs together for a lsp of £22.38. 2.45 Epsom: Gregorian, 7/2 Bet365, win Gregorian ran well lto on his seasonal reappearance to finish second in listed race at Haydock, beaten just a head by Eton Forever. He has some good form in a couple of group 1s last season when he was 1l third in the St. James Palace at Ascot before coming second in the Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly, finishing 1l behind Aesop's Fables. Ground and trip will suit. Trainer John Gosden is in decent form and the top class William Buick is in the saddle. 4.00 Epsom: Banoffee, 8/1 Bet365, win Banoffee has won both her starts so far. She won at Newbury fto on similar ground to what she gets today. She made all and when she was asked to quicken by her jockey she did so impressively and won by a length and a quarter. She then went to Chester and ran over a furlong shorter then today's trip in a listed race. She started slowly and was held up. She didn't have the clearest of runs but when a gap appeared, she finished strongly and won by a length and a quarter. Trainer Hughie Morrison is having a good season and he has a good record at Epsom. Kieran Fallon is in the saddle. Trainer and jockey have teamed up for 5 wins from just 16 runs. 5.20 Epsom: Hipster, 14/1 BetVictor, win Hipster has won twice from two runs at Epsom, one over today's distance. He has had one run so far this season when he finished third of three at Windsor but the ground that day was a bit too quick for him and he should come on a bit for that run. Today's good to soft ground will see a much improved run. He has also been dropped three pounds since his last race and is just two pounds above his last winning mark. Trainer Ralph Beckett is in good form and he has a solid record at Epsom. Andrea Atzeni is in the saddle.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Gregorian won well but there was a small loss on the day. Bets: 31 Wins: 4 S/R: 13% P/L: -4.8

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread 15.10 Doncaster: Matrooh, 7/2 Boylesports, win Matrooh won a maiden lto over c&d. He was up with the pace from the start and went to the lead over 2f out. He finished well and won by a length from a nto winner, with 2L back to another nto winner. This is his first run in a handicap and he has been given a mark of 87 which he should be more than capable of winning from. This is just his third run so he should improve a bit more. The ground will suit and both his runs have been over today's distance. Trainer William Haggas has a decent record at Doncaster and Paul Hanagan is in the saddle. The pair have a 26% SR together. 15.45 Doncaster: Glen Moss, 20/1 Stan James, e/w Glen Moss finished an 9L twelfth lto in the Victoria Cup at Ascot. I thought he ran quite well but he just faded about ½f out. This is his third run of the season so he should be in top condition now and he has been dropped a pound after that run. He ran a cracker in his third run last year when he finished 1L behind Hamza. Today's ground is ideal and this is his best trip. Trainer Charlie Hills is in decent form and he has a solid record at Doncaster. The very talented young jockey James McDonald is in the saddle and this is his only ride of the day. 14.05 Epsom: Riverboat Springs, 11/2 Paddy Power, win Riverboat Springs won his only race to date impressively. He broke slowly from the stalls but quickly latched onto the back of the pack. He started to make progress through the small field about 2f out and he got to the lead in the last furlong and finished very strongly to win by 2¼L from the re-opposing Money Team, who won easily nto. RS should come on a lot for that experience and I would expect him to confirm running with MT. The slight step up in trip will suit as will the ground. Thunder Strike is the obvious danger but he hasn't beaten much in his two races. Trainer Mick Channon won this race last year and William Buick is a very positive booking.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread 13.35 Epsom: Salutation, 12/1 Boylesports, e/w Salutation finished fourth of five lto at Yarmouth. That was run on soft ground, which didn't really suit, and over a mile and a half, which he didn't see out. He had every chance 2f out but just didn't have enough left to mount a serious challenge. He drops back to 1m2f today. His two other runs this season were over this distance. He finished second fto with the re-opposing High Troja 2L behind off level weights. He gets two pounds from him today so should confirm that running. He then won well at Nottingham. Today's ground is ideal for him. Fran Berry is in the saddle.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread 15.15 Epsom: Fair Value, 14/1 Ladbrokes, e/w Fair Value ran well lto on his seasonal reappearance at Goodwood. He finished a 2L third to the re-opposing Duke Of Firenze and he gets a six pound swing in the weights today and has every chance of reversing form with that comeback run under his belt. FV has run at Epsom twice both over today's distance. He won his first run here and he was second in his other race here, finishing ¾L behind the re-opposing Long Awaited, and he is nine pounds better off at the weights today. The ground should suit. Trainer Simon Dow sends just one horse to Epsom and Hayley Turner is in the saddle. 16.00 Epsom: Ruler Of The World, 9/2 Boylesports, win w/o the favourite Ruler Of The World has won both his races. He started in a maiden at the Curragh. He looked to be struggling about 1½f out when he wasn't really responding to his jockey's urgings. When he realized what was required he quickened up impressively and finished well to win by ¾L with 7½L back to third. He then went to Chester for the listed Chester Vase. He won impressively by 6L over today's distance and is the only horse in the field to have won over today's trip. Aidan O'Brien has five entered which should ensure a strong gallop which will test the stamina of the rest of the field. The top class Ryan Moore is in the saddle. Dawn's Approach will win if he sees out the trip and I fancy ROTW to chase him home. 16.50 Epsom: Cayuga, 17/2 BetVictor, win Cayuga finished second lto at Newmarket in his second run of the season. He had every chance with 2f to go but they bunched up about 1½f out and he got squeezed out. He rallied well and finished strongly to go down by 1L. He started the season at Windsor where he finished fourth, 2¾L behind the re-opposing Duke Of Clarence. He gets an eight pound swing in the weights so he could reverse form. He steps up in trip to a mile and a half which should suit as his finish lto would suggest and the ground will suit. Talented five pound claimer Ryan Tate is in the saddle.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Ruler Of The World won while Fair Value looked like he was going to win but buckled in the last fifty yards and finished fourth for a slight profit on the day. Bets: 38 Wins: 6 S/R: 16% P/L: -4.05

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread 16.35 Naas: Sandiva, 2/1 Boylesports, 2pts win* Sandiva was very impressive when she won on debut lto. She ran green and had to get a couple of taps of the whip early on as she chased the leaders. She was switched to the middle of the track about a furlong out and put the race to bed in a few strides as she put a few lengths between herself and the chasing pack, winning in the end by 6L. Second and third both ran good races in their only starts since. This looks quite a strong race but I think Sandiva, with natural improvement expected, will take this. The ground is similar to what her maiden was run on and the extra furlong will suit. Richard Fahey sends just one horse over to Naas today. The top class Pat Smullen is a very positive jockey booking. *As I said in the OP I use level stakes but on very rare occasions I double it if I really fancy something as I do Sandiva today.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread She won quite easily and is potentially top class. Bets: 39 Wins: 7 S/R: 18% P/L: -0.05

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread 14.05 Haydock: Brockwell, 9/1 Bet365, win Brockwell has a great record at Haydock with three wins from four runs, finishing second in his other run here. He finished third lto in a good handicap at York on ground that wasn't ideal. Today's ground will be a lot more suitable. He steps up in distance by ½ mile but if he sees out the trip he has a big chance today. Trainer Tom Dascombe is in good form and he has a decent record at Haydock. Richard Kingscote is in the saddle. 14.40 Haydock: Souvens Toi, 9/2 William Hill, win Souvens Toi ran well lto in her first start in the UK for Marco Botti. She was held up and started to make progress about ½ mile out. She didn't have a clear run though and had to wait for a gap which didn't really appear until about 1½f out. She ran on quite well but the winner was already gone and she finished third, 2¼L behind Khoine. It was her first attempt at 1½ miles and it looked like it suited her. This is her first time running on good to firm ground but her sire stats suggest it could see some improvement. Two of her three wins in France came on good ground. That run would have blown off any cobwebs and she should be sharper today. Neil Callan is a good jockey booking. 15.50 Haydock: Gracia Directa, 5/1 Boylesports, win Gracia Directa won a group 3 at York last season. She then went to Goodwood but she disappointed and was well beaten. She ran well lto in her seasonal reappearance when she finished second in a group 3 at Munich. That run should put her right for today and if she has travelled well she has a big chance. Trainer Dominik Moser sends just one horse over from Germany. Talented young jockey Oliver Wilson is in the saddle for his only ride of the day. 15.30 Newmarket: Suegioo, 15/2 BetVictor, win Suegioo finished 1¼L behind the re-opposing No Heretic lto over today's distance on the other course at Newmarket. There is a three pound swing in the weights which I think could be enough to reverse form as he didn't have the clearest of runs and had to be switched a couple of times while NH had a perfectly clear run. Trip, ground and track will all suit. Frankie Dettori is a big plus in the saddle. 16.10 Catterick: Sandy Lane, 9/2 Stan James, win Sandy Lane won very impressively over c&d in his first run of the season three runs ago. He then went to Ripon where he ran over a furlong shorter. He dead heated with Baccarat with 6l back to third. He ran quite well lto at Haydock on ground that was a bit too quick for him. He finished fifth, 4L behind Redvers. He was rated as low as 50 back in December but he has progressed well and I think there could be a bit more to come. Trainer David O'Meara is in great form and he has a solid record at Catterick. Sean Levey is in the saddle.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Sandy Lane was a non-runner and there was no returns from the other four bets. Bets: 43 Wins: 7 S/R: 16% P/L: -4.05 I'm going to put my US Open selections in here as I want to keep all my bets together and keep a record of everything. I'll keep the stats separate for horse racing and everything else. Rickie Fowler, 66/1 >boylesports, 0.5pt e/w He has experience of this course in tournament play when he was on the US team in the Walker Cup in 2009. He won all four of the matches he was involved in as the Americans won that tournament for the third consecutive time. He has been playing quite well this year, making the cut in 11 of 13 events played and finishing in the top 10 three times, including a third place finish in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. His GIR stats this season are solid and he should do well this weekend. Hunter Mahan, 70/1 >Paddy Power, 0.5pt e/w I think his game will suit this course. He is accurate off the tee and is a decent putter. His GIR stats are also pretty solid this season. He has played well this year making 13 cuts at 15 tournaments this year and I think he has a good chance. Francesco Molinari, 110/1 >Paddy Power, 0.5pt e/w Francesco Molinari has played very well in his three tournaments since missing the cut at the Players Championship in May. He got to the quarter finals of the Volvo World Match Play Championship, finished ninth in the BMW Championships and was a ten under par twenty first at the Nordea Masters. His brother won the US Amatuer Open on this course in 2005 and hopefully he has been picking his brain and getting lots of tips about how to win on this course. He is accurate off the tee and his GIR stats are pretty good this season. If he can get his putting going, he could have a big part to play come Sunday evening. Morgan Hoffman, 300/1 >boylesports, 0.5pt e/w Morgan Hoffman played alongside Rickie Fowler in the US Walker Cup team in 2009 on this course. He won two of the three matches he was involved in, halving the other. He has played quite well recently, putting in a career best performance to finish fifth in the HP Byron Nelson Championship in May. He finished twenty ninth in this event last year in his only appearance in a major since turning professional (he missed the cut in 2010 as an amatuer). His putting and GIR stats this season are pretty encouraging and, with some decent course form, he could outplay his odds.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread 14.20 Sandown: Basseterre, 16/1 BetVictor, e/w Basseterre ran quite well lto at Newmarket. That was over 1m2f and he drops to 1m which will suit. He was held up lto and made good progress about 3f out but he ran out of steam in the last furlong and finished fourth, 3½L behind the winner. He has been dropped a pound since that run and could be dangerous from the bottom of the handicap today. The ground will suit. Trainer Charlie Hills is in decent form. Talented young jockey James McDonald travels to Sandown for this one ride before going off to Lingfield for a further three. 16.05 Sandown: Beautiful View, 12/1 BetVictor, win Beautiful View is having her first run of the season today. She only had two runs during her juvenile season. She started in a strong maiden at Newbury over 6f. She was very keen but ran well to finish second, 1¾L behind subsequent listed winner Fort Knox. She finished 2¼L ahead of Seas Shanty, who won his next three starts. She then went to Newmarket where she won impressively over today's distance. She was a bit more settled as she tracked the leaders. She went to the front 1f out and finished strongly under a hands and heels ride to win by over 3L. This is her first run on fast ground but her sire stats suggest she could be better on good ground. This is her first run in a handicap and she will be competitive from her mark of 88. If Richard Hannon has her ready for today she should go close. 14.40 York: Fort Belvedere, 11/1 BetVictor, win Fort Belvedere has run well in his last two starts after being well beaten in his first run for his new trainer. The first run was over 1m4f which stretched his stamina to the limit but he would have needed that run anyway. He then went to Beverly where he ran over a 1m½f and was beaten by just ½L when he was headed near home. He then went to Ayr where he ran over 1m2f. He ran well from today's mark and was beaten less than ½L. Today's distance should be ideal and the ground will suit. Trainer Keith Dalgleish is in decent form and the booking of William Buick to ride suggests connections are confident. 15.15 York: Sir Patrick Moore, 6/1 BetVictor, win Sir Patrick Moore ran a cracker in his seasonal reappearance lto when he finished second in a group 3, 1L behind the top class Olympic Glory. He should come on a bit for that run and the step back up in trip to a mile will suit. Today's ground will suit as well. This looks quite competitive but with his weigth for age allowance I think SPM will come out on top. 15.50 York: Body And Soul, 9/1 Coral, win Body And Soul ran well lto in her first run of the season. She finished fifth of eleven, finishing 2L behind Spinatrix and she should come on a lot for that run. She was very progressive last season, culminating in an impressive victory in a listed race. She has run over c&d once before, finishing third in a competitive stakes race. Today's ground and trip will suit. Jockey Duran Fentiman has won on this horse three times from four rides. 15.35 Musselburgh: Bajan Tryst, 14/1 Coral, e/w Bajan Tryst won this race last year off a five pound higher mark. He hasn't run since January, when he ran a decent race at Lingfield. He has a decent record going fresh and if Kevin Ryan has him ready he should be involved at the finish. Graham Lee is a big plus in the saddle.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Body And Soul won nicely and Basseterre was a non runner. I'm going to leave the golf bets out until Sunday night or Monday. Molinari and Hoffman missed the cut but Mahan is well positioned 2 shots off the lead while Fowler is six shots off the lead but he has made good start to his third round at one under thru four. Bets: 48 Wins: 8 S/R: 17% P/L: +0.95

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Hunter Mahan tried his best to slip out of the places but he finished tied for fourth. With six players filling the five places, there was a slight reduction on the return. Rickie Fowler was playing quite well until the last four holes where he dropped three shots to finish tied for tenth. Horse Racing Stats Bets: 48 Wins: 8 S/R: 17% P/L: +0.95 Golf Stats Bets: 4 Wins/Places: 1 P/L: +2.5 Overall Bets: 52 Profitable: 9 Strike Rate: 17% Staked: 53pts Returned: 56.45pts Profit/Loss: +3.45 ROI: 6.5%

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread 14.30 Ascot: Trade Storm, 12/1 Bet365, e/w Trade Storm finished fourth in the Dubai Duty Free lto at Meydan. He ran quite well that day in his first start in group 1 company. He won a group 2 in impressive fashion before that over today's distance. He was held up behind and started to make good progress about 2f out through a bit of traffic. He got to the lead inside the final furlong and showed a great turn of foot to put the race to bed in a couple of strides, winning in the end by 1½L from Musir without his jockey having to get too animated in the saddle. He has some decent form over c&d. Today's ground will suit and this is his best trip. The favourite, Animal Kingdom, will be hard to beat but his best form is over further and this is the first time he has raced over a straight mile. Trainer David Simcock is in good form. Jamie Spencer has ridden this horse five times, winning three of those races, and his style is perfect for this horse. 15.05 Ascot: Reckless Abandon, 5/1 Boylesports, win Reckless Abandon ran a cracker lto to finish second in the group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock. The field split into two and he settled behind the leader of his group. He went to the front of his group about 2f out and ran on well to finish about 2L ahead of Spirit Quartz. He finished about ½L behind Kingsgate Native and a head behind Swiss Spirit, both of them came from the other group. That was his first run of the season and he should come on for that run. The ground that day was firm which was possibly a bit too quick for him and today's ground will be ideal. Trainer Clive Cox is in decent form and Adam Kirby is in the saddle. 15.45 Ascot: Magician, 5/2 Bet365, win Magician was a very impressive winner of the Irish 2000 Guineas lto at the Curragh. He was settled behind the leaders until 2f out when he was asked to go on and he got to the lead over 1f out. He finished strongly to win by 3½L. Trading Leather, who was 5L back in third, easily won a listed race nto. There should be some more improvement to come and he will go very close today. His main rivals, Dawn Approach and Toronado, both have questions to answer after their last runs but even if they both return to form I think Magician could still be too strong. Today's ground and trip are perfect for him. Trainer Aidan O'Brien is in good form and his son Joseph, who was on board in the Guineas, is in the saddle again today. 16.25 Ascot: Riverboat Springs, 10/1 BetVictor, win Posted this before his last run;

14.05 Epsom: Riverboat Springs, 11/2 Paddy Power, win Riverboat Springs won his only race to date impressively. He broke slowly from the stalls but quickly latched onto the back of the pack. He started to make progress through the small field about 2f out and he got to the lead in the last furlong and finished very strongly to win by 2¼L from the re-opposing Money Team, who won easily nto. RS should come on a lot for that experience and I would expect him to confirm running with MT. The slight step up in trip will suit as will the ground. Thunder Strike is the obvious danger but he hasn't beaten much in his two races. Trainer Mick Channon won this race last year and William Buick is a very positive booking.

He didn't handle Epsom's undulations at all but once he finally got his balance, he finished in eye-catching fashion, coming from a distant second last 2f out to finish second, 3½L behind the re-opposing Thunder Strike. It was a very encouraging run and, as it was only his second race, there will be improvement to come. Today's course, ground and trip will suit. Trainer Mick Channon is having a decent year with his 2yo. William Buick keeps the ride having been on board lto, which is a massive plus. 17.00 Ascot: Lieutenant Miller, 12/1 Boylesports, e/w Lieutenant Miller won nicely lto over 2m at Doncaster. He was settled in mid division most of the way round. His jockey asked him to go about 2f out and he responded well. He showed a decent turn of foot and got to the lead inside the final furlong. He finished strongly to win by 1¼L. He has run on the flat four times, winning twice and placing twice. Stamina won't be an issue as he has won over today's distance before and was narrowly beaten in a three mile handicap off top weight at Fakenham, both over hurdles. The ground will suit. Jumps trainers have won this eight times in the last ten runnings, including LM's trainer Nicky Henderson winning it in 2011 with Veiled. Henderson has his jumpers in fine form and I would expect him to have LM in top condition for this. Graham Lee, who was on board lto, is a big plus in the saddle. 17.35 Ascot: Haikbidiac, 20/1 Boylesports, e/w (1/4, 1234) Haikbidiac ran very well lto in the listed Woodcote Stakes at Epsom. He didn't seem totally comfortable coming down the hill so today's flatter track will be a lot more suitable. He didn't really see out the 6f either so the drop back to the minimum trip will suit. Today's ground is ideal. Trainer William Haggas is in good form and his 2yos are having a cracking season. Kieren Fallon is a very good jockey booking.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread 15.05 Ascot: Sole Power 16.25 Ascot: Thunder Strike 17.00 Ascot: Homeric 17.35 Ascot: Justice Day 0.05pt e/w at SP with boylesports Sole Power is a top class sprinter. He has a good draw with early pace drawn near him which will give him a strong pace to run at. Johnny Murtagh has a great partnership with this horse. Thunder Strike is unbeaten in three runs. He has been hugely impressive so far and there should be more to come. It's slightly worrying that Hughes has chosen Championship over TS but Frankie Dettori is a great replacement. Homeric won well lto over 2m on this track. He finished strongly and should be suited by the step up in trip. Trainer is in good form and Frankie is in the saddle. Justice Day has improved since finishing behind Anticipated three runs ago. Today's track, trip and ground will be perfect for him.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread Disappointing day. Lieutenant Miller finished in the places for my only return from my singles. In my lucky 15, Sole Power was the only winner with no places so I get double odds on that, staked 1.5pt, returned 0.6pt. Bets: 55 Profitable: 9 S.R.: 16% Staked: 56.5pts Returned: 52.55pts P/L: -3.95pts

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread 14.30 Ascot: Montiridge, 11/2 BetVictor, win Montiridge won a listed race very easily lto at Sandown. He went to the lead after 2f and went clear over 1f out. He finished well to win by 3½L from Mango Diva, who brought some decent form into the race. That was his second run of the season after finishing third in a listed race fto. He should be in top condition for today. He drops back to 7f which should suit as he definitely has the pace for it and the ground will suit. Trainer Richard Hannon has three horses in this race and Richard Hughes has chosen Montiridge which is a huge plus. The pair won this race two years ago. 15.05 Ascot: Thistle Bird, 7/1 Bet365, win Thistle Bird won a group 3 lto at Epsom. He settled behind the clear leader and went to the front about 1f out. She ran on well to win a tad comfortably by ¾L. She had Lady's First and Beatrice Aurore behind and will confirm that form today. She started the season finishing 3L behind Dank but I think now that she is race fit she should reverse that form. She ended last season by finishing a ¼L second behind Chigun but she gets a four pound swing in the weights and should reverse that form as well. Trainer Roger Charlton has just two runners today has a great chance of leaving with a double. James Doyle has won four times from six rides on this horse. 15.45 Ascot: Al Kazeem, 9/4 Boylesports, win Al Kazeem was very impressive lto when he easily beat Camelot in a group 1 at the Curragh. Camelot had his pacemaker in the race but still couldn't live with Al Kazeem as he breezed past inside the final furlong to win by 1½L. I see no reason why that form would be reversed today. James Doyle has three wins from three rides on this horse. 16.25 Ascot: Fury, 14/1 Bet365, e/w (1/4, 12345) Fury ran quite well lto in a listed race in his seasonal reappearance. That should put him right for today. His last run in a handicap was his last run of last season when he finished tenth in the Cambridgeshire. He didn't have the clearest of runs that day and would have been much closer with a bit more luck. He runs today from a six pound lower mark and is four pounds lower than his last winning mark. Ground and trip will suit. Trainer William Haggas is in decent form and Joseph O'Brien is in the saddle. The pair have teamed up for two winners from five runners. 17.00 Ascot: Quatuor, 25/1 William Hill, e/w Quatuor finished 5L behind the re-opposing Beldale Memory lto at York. That was run on soft ground which didn't suit my selection at all and he has every chance of reversing that firm back on a quicker surface today. He won his two races before that impressively, both on quick ground. Trainer Tom Dascombe is in decent form and he has a solid record at Ascot. Richard Kingscote is in the saddle. The pair won this race last year. 17.35 Ascot: Hint Of A Tint, 10/1 William Hill, win Hint Of A Tint finished a ¼L second in a group 3 at Leopardstown lto. The winner has since run a cracker in the Irish 1000 Guineas. There was 2¼L back to third who also ran well in the Guineas.This is her first time running on good ground but it should suit as her sire's and dam's sire's stats are very strong on quick ground. She is a full sister of Songbird who won a handicap on good to firm ground last week by 11L off a mark of 85 and is now rated 103. Trainer David Wachman is in decent form. Fran Berry, who had a winner here yesterday, is in the saddle for his only ride of the day.

[smith17]

Re: smith17's Thread 14.30 Ascot: Ajraam 16.25 Ascot: Global Village 17.00 Ascot: Ventura Mist 17.35 Ascot: Zurigha Lucky 15 0.5pt e/w @ Boyles Ajraam is unbeaten in two starts. He won well lto and has been put up 5 pounds but should still have a bit in hand over the handicapper. This is just his third run so there should be a bit more improvement to come. Global Village likes these big field handicaps, running well in two of them already this season. He should be fully wound up by now and has a decent chance in this. Ventura Mist won lto in a race that has worked out quite well. She won her maiden before that as well on ground that wasn't ideal when she showed great fight to win by a nose from three other horses. She will need to improve again but deserves her chance in this company. Zurigha ran a cracker lto in the French 1000 Guineas. Has to carry top weight but has a good chance with Hughes on board.