Jump to content

smith17's Thread


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 266
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Re: smith17's Thread 1.45 York: Normal Equilibrium, 12/1 William Hill, win Normal Equilibrium won a decent handicap at Lingfield lto. He has been put up six pounds for that win but there could be more improvement to come in his third start as a four year old. He showed some decent form in similar handicaps last season. Today's ground will suit. Trainer Robert Cowell is in good form and five pound claimer Ryan Tate is in the saddle. 2.15 York: Ambivalent, 9/2 Bet365, win Ambivalent ran a cracker to finish third in the Dubai Sheema Classic lto at Meydan. She won the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh last year and finished last year with a second place in a Group 2 in Turkey. If she runs to the form of her last run than she should go very close today. Trainer Roger Varian is in decent form and Andrea Atzeni is in the saddle. 3.15 York: Navajo Chief, 7/1 Coral, win Navajo Chief won this race last year off a three pound higher mark. He only beat seven horses in his six races since then but now that his handicap mark has dropped he should be competitive today. He also returns to York, a track where he has won 3 times and placed 3 times from 9 runs. Today's ground will be ideal for him. Trainer Alan Jarvis is in good form and he has a good record at York. The in-form Kieran Fallon is in the saddle. 5.00 York: Eagle Rock, 14/1 Boylesports, e/w

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: smith17's Thread 2.15 Curragh: Srucahan, 14/1 Paddy Power, e/w (1/4, 12345) Srucahan finished 7th in a Listed race lto over 5f which is a bit short for him and on good ground which doesn't suit. The step back up in trip to 6f and the soft/heavy ground will see him be a lot more competitive today. Before that race, he won a 20-runner handicap over c&d off top weight. He was held up and came with a great late run to win by ½L. He is just five pounds higher today and he should run a big race. Trainer Paul Deegan is in decent form. Richard Hughes takes over in the saddle which is a big plus given this horses usual hold up tactics. 2.45 Curragh: Blue Hussar, 9/2 Bet365, win Blue Hussar finished fourth in a listed race lto despite looking quite awkward throughout. He didn't seem to handle Lingfield's undulations or tight bends at all but he stayed on quite well in the straight and should be much more suited to The Curragh. That was his first run of the year so it should bring him on a bit fitness wise and the experince will definitely stand to him. In his only run last year, he won his maiden quite well despite running very green. He was slowly away and had to be pushed along before halfway. He responded well though and won nicely in the end despite hanging a bit left in the closing stages. Joseph O'Brien chooses to ride Adelaide ahead of Blue Hussar but that allows Ryan Moore to keep the ride on BH having ridden him lto. 3.55 Curragh: Al Thakhira, 9/1 William Hill, win Al Thakhira finished 8th in the French 1000 Guineas lto. She was held up and, as it was a slowly run race and she was hampered when the sprint for home begun, she never had any chance of winning but still kept on well inside the final furlong. Before that she was beaten a head by J Wonder in the Group 3 Fred Darling Stakes. Last year she won a Group 2 at Newmarket on good to soft ground when she had the re-opposing Lightning Thunder 4L behind. She won her maiden on soft ground so today's going won't be a problem and the trip will suit. Richard Hughes is in the saddle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Re: smith17's Thread Horse Racing Stats Bets: 145 Profitable: 28 S/R: 19% Staked: 149pts Returned: 147.77pts P/L: -1.23pts _______________________ US Open, Outright Winner, all e/w paying 6 places. Graham Delaet, 100/1 BetVictor Graeme MacDowell, 55/1 Paddy Power Patrick Reed, 125/1 Paddy Power Ian Poulter, 66/1 Paddy Power I'll add reasoning tomorrow evening.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: smith17's Thread

US Open, Outright Winner, all e/w paying 6 places. Graham Delaet, 100/1 BetVictor Graeme McDowell, 55/1 Paddy Power Patrick Reed, 125/1 Paddy Power Ian Poulter, 66/1 Paddy Power
Graham DeLaet has played very well in his last two tournaments. He finished 14th at the the Crowne Plaza Invitational at the end of May. Before that he finished 7th in the Byron Nelson Championship. He has finished in the top ten 6 times this season from fifteen events and is having a very good season overall. His approach play is good which will be very important this weekend. He is long off the tee and accurate which will also help. Graeme McDowell played ok last week in the St Jude Classic finishing in 24th place, 3 under par. This season, he has 5 top ten finishes from just 10 tournaments on the PGA Tour. He has been in very good form all year but the only cut he missed was at the Masters. He is good off the tee and his short game is solid. The greens at Pinehurst are difficult to say the least but GMac is one of the best putters in golf and if he gets going he should do very well. Patrick Reed made it to the semi finals in the US Amateur Championship back in 2008 on this course. He won the Humana Challenge back in January and then won the WGC Cadillac Championship in March. He played well in the tournaments in between with 3 top twenty finishes from 4 events played. He has struggled since but he his wife was heavily pregnant and he said himself that he wasn't really focused but he is ready again. He made his comeback last week in the St Jude Classic and he missed the cut but his stats weren't bad considering he had a month off. His game will suit this course and with his tournament course experience he should hopefully be in the mix come Sunday evening. I'm a big fan of Poults. He played very well last week to finish 6th in the St Jude Classic. He definitely has the game to win a major and if he puts it all together this weekend, then this could be his time. ___________________ World Cup 2014 Outright Winner: Spain, 13/2 Paddy Power, 2pts win Spain have won the last three major tournaments. I personally think this is the strongest squad they have had heading into a tournament. There defensive record is brilliant, the midfield is unbelievable and with the world class Diego Costa leading the line they will be there or thereabouts. There group should be relatively straight forward. This is the weakest Netherlands team in a long time, Australia will be no match for Spain's attacking talent and Chile are strong and should finish second to Spain in the group. Hopefully Brazil will also win there group which will see Spain playing one of Mexico, Cameroon and, most likely, Croatia. Again this should be pretty easy progress into the quarter finals where they are likely to face one of Italy, England or Uruguay, which will be there first real test. If they get through that they will probably face Argentina and in my opinion the winner of that tie will win the competition. Argentina's attack is frightening but their defence is weak which should set up a classic of a semi final if both teams progress that far. It'll most likely be Germany or Brazil in the final which, either way, should be a cracker. Hopefully at least some of what I wrote will happen but as long as Spain go far, and hopefully win, I'll be happy. Overall Top Goalscorer Diego Costa, 25/1 Paddy Power, 0.5pt e/w (1/4, 1234) I think Spain will go far in this tournament and Diego Costa should be the man to start up front for them. He scored 35 goals in 46 games for Atletico Madrid last season and I think he will excel in his first major international tournament. Sergio Aguero, 14/1 Boylesports, 0.5pt e/w (1/4,1234) I fancy Argentina to make it to at least the semi finals. He scored 27 goals in 32 games for Man City last season. With Iran, Nigeria and Bosnia in their group he should get plenty of chances especially with Argentina's great attacking threat and creativity. Group Betting Winners Group A - Brazil (2/9), Group B - Spain (8/11), Group C - Ivory Coast (7/2), Group F - Argentina (2/9), 1.5 pts win accumulator with Boylesports. Brazil should come through their group with ease. Their toughest group game is first which should help as they will want to put on a show in front of their home crowd in the first game. They should comfortably win their other two games. Spain, see above. Ivory Coast have a wealth of attacking talent to choose from and should have too much for Greece and Japan too handle. Columbia are the dangers but Falcao is a huge loss for them. Argentina, like Brazil should come through their group with ease and I expect them to win all three group games. Group D - England (11/5), Group E - France (4/5), Group G - Portugal (5/2), Group H - Belguim (4/6), 0.5 pts win accumulator with Boylesports. England are in a tough group but I don't think Italy are as strong as they have been in the past. Luis Suarez won't be 100% fit which will be a big loss for Uruguay and I think England have a good blend of youthful exuberance and big game experience in there squad to have a pretty decent summer in Brazil. France left it late to qualify for the finals but they have been given a nice draw and, even with the loss of Ribery, should have enough to win Group E. Portugal have been drawn in the group of death along with Ghana, USA and Germany. I reckon that Ronaldo is gonna have a big tournament and Germany only have one out and out striker in there squad in 36yo Klose. It's a tough group to call but I have a feeling Portugal could surprise a few in the next few weeks. Belguim travel to Brazil with a squad full of Premiership stars and have been handed a very favourable draw. They were unbeaten in qualification and I expect the same in this group. First Series Accumulators Spain (17/20), Chile (4/9), France (4/11), Argentina (4/9), 1.5pt win with Paddy Power Brazil (1/3), Ivory Coast (17/10), Russia (13/10), Belgium (1/2), 0.5pt win with Paddy Power
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: smith17's Thread 3.35 Musselburgh: Body And Soul, 5/1 BetVictor, win Body And Soul was beaten just ¾L lto in a similar handicap at York. She runs from the same mark again today and if she reproduces that run she should go very close again. The trip and ground should be ideal. Trainer Tim Easterby has a solid record at Musselburgh and Duran Fentiman is in the saddle. 3.50 York: Betimes, 11/1 BetVictor, win Betimes finished second in a Listed race at Haydock lto. She finished 2¾L behind the impressive Aeolus and had the likes of Parbold and Shamshon behind. That was just her third run and she should have a bit of improvement to come. She won her maiden in her debut race at Lingfield in December by 4L. She then went to Newmarket for the 1000 Guineas but she was hit as she left the stalls, didn't settle and didn't see out the mile. The fact connections ran her in the Guineas suggest they think quite a lot of her. This is her first run in a handicap and she should be competitive of a mark of 97. Today's trip and ground will suit. Trainer John Gosden is in good form and Robert Havlin is in the saddle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: smith17's Thread No luck at the US Open at the weekend. Golf Stats Bets: 20 Wins: 1 Places: 2 P/L: +9.38 __________ Horse Racing Stats Bets: 148 Profitable: 28 S/R: 19% Staked: 152pts Returned: 147.77pts P/L: -4.23pts 2.30 Ascot: Soft Falling Rain, 15/2 BetVictor, win Soft Falling Rain finished 1L behind Variety Club in the Godolphin Mile lto in March. Variety Club has since won the Champions Mile by over 3L in Hong Kong so that form is very solid. He didn't travel to the UK well and missed a bit of work but he has worked well since and he should be ready for today. The ground and trip will be ideal and he has a good draw. Trainer Mike De Kock has just two runners at Royal Ascot this year. Paul Hanagan is in the saddle. Toronado, if at his best, will probably win this but he was disappointing lto and this is his first run of the season. 3.05 Ascot: The Wow Signal, 13/2 Bet365, win The Wow Signal won his one and only race by 9L at Ayr over today's trip. Second won by 6L nto while third, who was 20L behind TWS, also won nto. He was bought by Al Shaqab Racing for £50,000 after that race. He is by Starspangledbanner who's six offspring have won four times from eight runs between them. Trainer John Quinn is in decent form and Frankie Dettori is a big plus in the saddle. 3.45 Ascot: Sole Power, 11/2 BetVictor, win Sole Power won a Group 3 at Newmarket lto despite not having a clear run just over 1f from home. He still managed to get going when switched and thundered home to win by ½L from Kingsgate Native with today's favourite Hot Streak a further head back. They race off the same weights today and, with a bit more luck in running, SP should be able to confirm that form. He won this race last year and placed in it the year before. The ground is perfect and he has got a good draw. Trainer Edward Lynam has a good record when sending horses over to the UK. Richard Hughes should be the perfect jockey for this horse and it is all set up for a huge run today. 5.00 Ascot: Perfect Heart, 8/1 Betfred, win Perfect Heart won a two mile handicap lto at Doncaster on soft ground. He finished well and should be suited by the step up in distance. There is also plenty of stamina in his family so today's marathon trip shouldn't be a problem. This is step up in class but he is lightly raced and there should be a bit of improvement to come. Today's ground is a slight worry as his last four runs have been on soft ground. His first race was on good to firm and ran ok, finishing a 4L third of eight. His sire's stats suggest the better ground will suit. Trainer Roger Varian has a good record at Ascot and he is in decent form. Andrea Atzeni is in the saddle. He has won twice and placed once from four rides on PH.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: smith17's Thread The Wow Signal and Sole Power both won impressively for a good start to the week. Bets: 152 Profitable: 30 S/R: 20% Staked: 156pts Returned: 161.77pts P/L: +5.77pts 2.30 Ascot: Redbrook, 12/1 Paddy Power, win Redbrook won a listed race lto at Longchamp. He was held up and made eyecatching progress over 2f out. He was ridden just over 1f out and ran on strongly to win by 1¼L. Before that he won on his reappearance in a conditions race. This is a step up in class but he should have a lot of improvement to come. The trip is ideal and the ground should suit. Trainer Alain de Royer-Dupre is in good form and this is his only runnner of the day. Frankie Dettori, who was on board for those two wins and had a winner here yesterday, is in the saddle. 3.45 Ascot: Dank, 14/1 Paddy Power, e/w (1/4, 123) Dank finished third in the Dubai Duty Free lto at Meydan. She never had any chance with the very impressive winner but she it was a good run. Before that she won a couple of Grade 1s in America. She won the Beverly D. Stakes at Arlington before tasting Breeders Cup success in the Filly and Mare Turf. Both of those races were over today's trip and the ground will be ideal for her. Trainer Sir Michael Stoute is in good form and Ryan Moore is in the saddle. 4.25 Ascot: Sky Lantern, 4/1 Paddy Power, win Sky Lantern won three Group 1s last season, including the Coronation Cup over c&d at this meeting. She beat the re-opposing Integral by 1L in the Sun Chariot Stakes in her last start of last season. She was disappointing lto in the Hong Kong Mile but i'm going to ignore that as something must have been wrong. Today's ground and trip will suit. This is her first run of the season but her trainer showed he can get them ready with Toronado winning yesterday fto. Trainer Richard Hannon is in good form. The in form Richard Hughes is in the saddle. 5.00 Ascot: Belgian Bill, 20/1 Bet365, e/w (1/4, 12345) Belgian Bill won this race last year off a five pound lower mark. He finished third lto in the Victoria Cup over a furlong short of today's trip on this track off today's mark. That was his first run of the season and it should put him in perfect condition to defend his crown. The ground will suit. Trainer George Baker is in great form and has a decent record at Ascot. Pat Cosgrave is in the saddle. 5.35 Ascot: Queen Catrine, 20/1 BetVictor, e/w Queen Catrine was placed in four Group races last year including a including a 2½L third in a Group 1 at Longchamp on Arc day. She ran quite well in her reappearance run in the Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket before being a bit disappointing in the French 1000 Guineas lto. She runs in a handicap for the first time and if she recaptures some of her form of last year then she could have too much class today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: smith17's Thread Jamie Spencer :wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall Bets: 157 Profitable: 31 S/R: 20% Staked: 161pts Returned: 164.77pts P/L: +3.77pts 3.05 Ascot: Barley Mow, 13/2 BetVictor, win 3.45 Ascot: Vazira, 7/2 BetVictor, win 4.25 Ascot: Brown Panther, 7/2 Paddy Power, win w/o Leading Light ____________________ World Cup, Group Stage, Second Series Bosnia (20/21), Germany (1/3), Argentina (2/17), France (17/20), 1.5pt win acc. with BetVictor. England (6/5), Belgium (Evs), Argentina -2 (11/10), 0.5pt win acc. with Paddy Power.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: smith17's Thread

3.05 Ascot: Elidor' date= 12/1 Boylesports, e/w
Elidor finished third in a Listed race lto over c&d. He finished 2¼L behind Gatewood, who won another Listed race nto, and 1¾L behind the 110 rated Pether's Moon. Before that he won a decent handicap at Thirsk over today's trip in his first start of the season. He was very impressive winning comfortably by 2¾L. The form of that race has worked out quite well with a couple of winners coming out and a few performing well in defeat. He won well over c&d at this meeting last year in the King George V Stakes. The ground will suit. Trainer Mick Channon has had a couple of big priced places this week at Ascot from just four runners, both ridden by today's jockey William Twiston Davies. He has been on board for both of PM's runs this season.
3.45 Ascot: Dandino' date= 10/1 Paddy Power, e/w
Dandino is having his first run of the season today. He has two wins, one place and a ¼L second from his four seasonal reappearances. Lto he ran a cracker to finished fifth in the Melbourne Cup. Before that he finished second in the Caulfield Cup and before that he won the American St Leger. His last run in the UK was in this race last year when he was beaten 1L by Thomas Chippendale. He was 2½L in front of nto Group 2 winner Universal in third and Noble Mission who has won three Group races this season, beating today's market leader Telescope comfortably twice. Today's trip is ideal for Dandino and the ground will suit. Trainer Marco Botti is in decent form and he has a solid record at Ascot. Martin Harley is in the saddle.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: smith17's Thread

4.25 Ascot: Slade Power' date= 4/1 BetVictor, win
Slade Power won a Group 3 lto at the Curragh in his first run of the season. He beat Maarek by 2L and was very impressive. He should come on a bit for that run. He won over c&d back in October in the Champion Series Sprint. The ground is a slight worry as he probably would have liked it a bit softer but it shouldn't be a problem. Trainer Edward Lynam has had a couple of winners from just three runners this at Ascot this week. Wayne Lordan is in the saddle.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: smith17's Thread

5.00 Ascot: Hoof It' date= 22/1 Bet365, e/w (1/4, 12345)
Hoof It finished third in his two races this year. He started in a Listed race at Lingfield and was beaten just ½L. He then went to Kempton where he ran quite well but was 2½L behind the winner. He returns to turf for the first time since finishing fourth in the Listed Wentworth Stakes at Doncaster back in November. The main thing that catches my eye is that Kieran Fallon is reunited with him. He has been on board for Hoof It's last four wins. His last couple of rides on him were in Group races over c&d at the back end of last season and he ran well in both. He hasn't won since July 2011 but he has been running well in defeat and I think he could go close today.
5.35 Ascot: Pique Sous' date= 7/2 BetVictor, win
Pique Sous finished fifth in his seasonal reappearance lto at the Curragh. That should put him spot on for today's race. He ended last season by winning impressively at Leopardstown over 14f. The trip won't be a problem. He won three of his six NHF races and finished third in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham. The ground is a slight worry but he won on good ground so it should suit. Trainer Willie Mullins has his yard in flying form in Ireland. The very much in form Ryan Moore is in the saddle.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: smith17's Thread

2.40 Newcastle: Saayerr' date= 3/1 Betfred, win
Saayerr ran quite well lto in his first run of the season. He finished fourth, 1¾L behind the winner, but he seem to see out the 7f. He drops back to 6f today, a trip over which he won a Group 2 at Goodwood last year. He should come on a bit for that run and the ground will suit. Trainer William Haggas is in great form and he has a strong record at Newcastle. Graham Lee is in the saddle.
3.50 Newcastle: Van Percy' date= 11/1 BetVictor, win
Van Percy won a good handicap at Newmarket lto over 14f. He was put up six pounds for that win but excellent three pound claimer Oisin Murphy takes over in the saddle. He steps up in trip to 2 miles for the first time today but the way he finished lto suggests it won't be a problem. The ground will suit. Trainer Andrew Balding is in decent form.
2.55 Newmarket: Cameron Highland' date= 13/2 Paddy Power, win
Cameron Highland is making his seasonal debut today. He has a good record running fresh so that shouldn't be a problem. He has twice won at this level. He could get an easy lead if those tactics are employed and he will be hard to pass if he does. Today's ground shouldn't be a problem and the trip will suit. Trainer Roger Varian is in good form and he has a solid record at Newmarket. Frankie Dettori is in the saddle.
4.10 Windsor: El Viento' date= 10/1 Paddy Power, win
El Viento ran well lto in a strong handicap at York. He finished a fast finishing sixth over 5f so the step back up in trip to 6f will suit. His last three wins were over today's trip and he runs off his last winning mark. Today's ground will suit. Trainer Richard Fahey has a cracking record at Windsor and he is in decent form. Dane O'Neill is in the saddle. __________ 1pt single on Columbia -1 (16/5) & 1pt double with Brazil (4/7). Both with Paddy Power.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: smith17's Thread Horse Racing Stats Bets: 173 Profitable: 35 S/R: 21% Staked: 177pts Returned: 183.57pts P/L: +6.57pts I'm going to the Curragh today so I'll try and post up my bets before the races. ___________________ Holland (21/20) & Greece (11/5), 1pt double with Boylesports.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...