Ligue 1 > 12th - 14th April

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 12 April 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Valenciennes FC v Saint-Étienne (19:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.08 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 13 April 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Troyes AC v Paris Saint-Germain (16:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.60 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]AC Ajaccio v AS Nancy (19:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.95[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.54 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Evian TG v Stade Rennais (19:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.79[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.82[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.07 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FC Lorient v SC Bastia (19:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.91[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.97 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Girondins de Bordeaux v Montpellier HSC (19:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.69 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Stade Brestois 29 v Stade Reims (19:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.02 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 14 April 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]OGC Nice v Sochaux-Montbéliard (13:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.85[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.40 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Olympique Lyonnais v Toulouse FC (16:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.84[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.36 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Lille OSC v Olympique Marseille (20:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.40 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[value4sports]

Re: Ligue 1 > 12th - 14th April The draw has occurred in 40% of similar games featuring these two teams. 3.60 is widely available but I put the odds at more like 2.5 based on the stats. The value on the draw is 44% on this analysis.

[assange]

Re: Ligue 1 > 12th - 14th April

The draw has occurred in 40% of similar games featuring these two teams. 3.60 is widely available but I put the odds at more like 2.5 based on the stats. The value on the draw is 44% on this analysis.

Which teams? Which analysis? You left out some pretty important info.

[AHughes]

Re: Ligue 1 > 12th - 14th April Valenciennes vs Saint Etienne - Friday Night Marlon Brandao misses this one due to suspension and also winger Max Gradel is out injured for this one for Saint Etienne. That means Pierre- Emerick Aubameyeng will be likely to lead the line for his side and with 17 goals this season that is not entirely a bad thing for the away side here. Saint Ettiene have not lost in any competition this year giving them an impressive 16 game unbeaten run and I cannot see it ending against an out of sort Valenciennes side who have not won in 7 games and are nervously now looking over their shoulder after this poor run has seen them only 6 points off the drop. They also have a massive injury list with 8 players unavailable for the game with ever present defender Nicolas Isimat-Mirin missing due to suspension. Both Valenciennes top goalscorers Gregory Pujol and Anthony Le Tallec lead that injury list and will not be taking part in this one. Suggested Bets: Pierre- Emerick Aubeyang to score anytime 2.3 BetVictor Saint Etienne to win - 2.1 Boylesports

[value4sports]

Re: Ligue 1 > 12th - 14th April Apologies lorient vs bastia

[vicsuna]

Re: Ligue 1 > 12th - 14th April man sorry but it seems like you don't even care who the players are behind those odds and stats :D (second post that you forgot to say the names of the teams) I have to say my favorite leagues for playing draws are exactly Ligue 1 and Ligue 2, but I have to disagree with you on that one - the value bet in this game IMO is half time draw at 11/10 at betfair. I am also considering the half-time-full-time draw-Bastia at 7/1. It is truly remarkable that Lorient haven't made a single draw at half time this season in their 15 home games. Last year there was no team that made such an achievement. Bastia have made a draw 50% of their half time away games. Bastia are in solid form winning 4 out of their last 6 games, while Lorient lost 3 out of their last 6 games. Lorient lost really bad last round 5:0 against Lille and are going to play without 2 defenders each with 10 games this season. The problem with Bastia is that they are missing their most experienced attacker in the team Toifilou Maoulida(6 goals and 1 assist in 28 games) and the midfielder Gael Angoula(16 games - 1 assist). But Maoulida is their fourth top scorer this season and the young attackers Wahbi Kazri, Anthony Modeste and one of the best talents in the league Florian Thauvin are deadly in front of goal and pleasure to watch, and have the lungs/energy to run and win the game in the second half :). Lorient have only lost one home game this season or just 7% of their home games while in the last 6 seasons they have averaged 22% of home losses(no relegation in the period/outlier in the data). Bastia scored 12 goals and conceded 4 in their last 3 games, while Lorient scored 5 and conceded 6(both teams made a 4:0 win against Brest in the period), but since the start of the year Bastia scored 16 conceded 15 and Lorient scored 16, but conceded 26 goals. Bastia are a really attacking team that is in form and with the young players and the stats presented I really feel the half time-full time draw-Bastia bet can be spot on.

[vicsuna]

Re: Ligue 1 > 12th - 14th April if you don't like this risky bet my other predictions for the round in Ligue 1 are: a win for Lille against Marseille on Sunday at EVS Marseille are the second best away team in Ligue 1 with 8-3-5(wins-draws-losses) losing 33% of their away games and losing 2 out of 6 games(2 wins and 2 draws) or again 33% losses against the top half teams so far. It is worth mentioning that usually a team has worse stats against the top half teams, but these teams are the exception of the rule. This year both Lille and Marseille have struggled mainly against bottom half teams, especially Lille that started the year very poorly without their best player from previous seasons Eden Hazard. In their last 9 games since February Lille have won 7 drew 1 and lost 1, while Marseille have won only 4 everytime by 1 goal (2 losses). Marseille's last 9 games have seen them score only six goals, while Lille has scored 22 and that should be the key difference in this one. Marseille are missing their most experienced player the midfielder Valbuena he has 9 assist so far(2nd in the league after Dimitri Payet from Lille 10), while the most important player Lille are missing is the attacker Tullo de Mello, but that can be a good thing because he has scored only 1 goal in 19 games and hasn't made any assist.(Lille are also missing the midfielder Rio Mavuba 15 games no assist or goals, and attacker Ryan Mendes 2 goals and 1 assist in 9 games). and the draw I am betting this time is in the relegation battle: Brest - Reims at the odds of 11/5 Brest are in a terrible shape and 9/10 cases are going out of Ligue 1. Since the start of the year they have lost 8 of their last 12 games, without winning a single home game(2 draws). Reims are in good form and have made positive results lately despite their bad start coming from Ligue 2. Last week I won betting on them in their surprise win against Lyon betting at half time cause they were the dangerous team and Lyon are in hole lately. But this week Reims topscorer Courtet that has scored 9 goals ís injured and won't play(their second best goalscorer Diego has scored only 3). Reims are above the relegation zone and I think they will be happy with a draw. Since the start of the year they made 4 wins/3 draws/5losses, they have 33% draws against bottom half teams in all games and only 25% in their away games. Brest have changed their coach and that should bring some positive change at least, they are also solid against bottom half teams winning 4, drawing 1 and losing 1 at home ground, last year they finished the year with stats at 5 - 3 - 1 at home against bottom half teams. This year in all games against bottom half teams Brest have drew only 13% of the games, while last year 3 times more 39%. Brest are missing couple of midfielders like Lesomier(22 games-2goals-5assists) and Dernis(22-1-1), as well as one of their best defenders Paul Baysse(18 games - 2 goals), but I expect the new coach to give some advice to the team just not to lose that game cause every point is vital in the relegation battle(Brest are 2 away points from survival). Even though this game seems more like a Reims win, I am confident in the draw because Reims have only 1 away win and difficulty scoring without Courtet and they are also missing their most scoring attacking midfielder Odair Fortes(22 games-3goals-1assist). So the lack of goals and the new coach effect are the key in this draw. Good luck to everyone :)

[hairline]

Re: Ligue 1 > 12th - 14th April After reading your post I think that Brest win is more likely here. Best Reims scorer is out, plus Reims is crap away. Brest has new coach and they are more home team than away. Brest haven't won at home in 9 matches. At home they lost against Marseille, Montpellier, PSG, St.Etienne, Nice. Than draw against Ajaccio and Lyon (should have won against Lyon because Brest hit o.g.) Than lost against Tolouse and Lille. What does that tell you ? Mostly great teams. I would say Brest had no luck with their schedule. Although I haven't watched any of Brest matches, but somehow I can smell HW. I wouldn't pay any attention to Brest away games (last game lost to Bastia 0-4) because their are crap away. They are home team as I said. This is 10th home game since last win for Brest and I dare to say it's the easiest one. 2,45 at my local is nice price so I'm willing to risk 4/10 bet.

[hairline]

Re: Ligue 1 > 12th - 14th April Another bet I'll try is Lorient-Bastia +2,5@1,82 in my local at 4/10 bet. At home Lorient holds third place (1st Bastia and 2nd Tolouse) in league with 60% of over2,5 games. Away Bastia holds 1st place in league with 68,8% of over2,5 games. So, statistically this match has high probability of overs. Lorient has allowed 50 goals in all Ligue1 matches so far. Only Bastia and Troyes allowed more. That's 56 and 54 respectively. You know how attacking Bastia is, just look at threir last 3 games. 12 goals scored... If I had more money I would go for +3,5 which is 3,07 in my local.

[hairline]

Re: Ligue 1 > 12th - 14th April Today PSG is without Ibrahimovic (According to ligue1.com he's banned). What do you think ? Can Troyes hold them ? "...PSG have managed only two points from the three Ligue 1 matches the Swede hasn't featured in this season." (Ligue1.com). That's two draws and one loss in those 3 matches. Home team is 5 home games without loss. Last time they hold St.Etienne to 2-2. Also this is 1st place against last, which is always suspicious and risky. Is PSG public bet today ?