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Everything posted by value4sports

  1. Re: West Bromwich Albion v Newcastle United > Wednesday January 1st i agree. these are ludicrous odds for newcastle> Why are west brom favourites here? they have scored 9 points at home this season vs newcastles 15 away.
  2. Re: Sunderland v Aston Villa > Wednesday January 1st wow, aston villa 3.8. I'd take that any day. Sunderland are an appalling team at home and Villa aren't too bad away. Not sure why Sunderland are favoruites here ?
  3. Hi can someone tell me why my username has changed I registered as > but my username has been changed to value4sports without warning thanks
  4. Re: West Bromwich Albion V Manchester City > Wednesday 4th December Completely agree with Max2112. Man City who have lost to Cardiff, Villa, Sunderland and Chelsea from their six away games this season. West Brom and Man City actually have the same record on a 19 game (1 season) basis, taking West Brom at home and Man City Away. 1.65 is an awful price for Give WB a goal head start and this looks compelling value at 1.83.
  5. Re: 3 Key Attributes interesting selections. surely home clean sheets would be the way to go. so far results have produced 15/21 home clean sheets which is 71% or odds of 1.40. Normally the odds for a clean sheet for hot home favourites is at least 1.6.
  6. Re: Southampton v Sunderland - Sat 24th August I think this is a good example of where value can be had. There is no way Southampton should be priced at this level. When they were priced like this last season (7 games) they won once. The away team won 3 of those games. In similarly priced games where southampton were at home or sunderland were away the results have been Home win 32%, Draw 32%, Away win 36%. Given the massive price on Sunderland surely its wise to back them in some way, either outright, DNB or laying southampton or taking them on with the Asian HC.
  7. Re: La Liga > 23rd - 26th August Getafe vs Almeria -These two teams have featured in 43 similar games in the last few those games both teams have not scored 60% of the time. This equated to real odds of 1.65, which is 25% value on the widely available odds of 2.00, seems like excellent value [TABLE] [TR] [TD=width: 64][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 64] [TR] [TD=width: 64][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
  8. Halmstad vs Norrkoping For this game we there have been 28 similar games featuring either of these teams. The away team has won in 54% of these in the Draw no bet market. The odds should be below 2 based on these statistics. Bet Victor are offering 2.25. Great Value.
  9. Re: La Liga > 8th - 13th May Sociedad vs Granada. In similar games featuring these two teams, the home team has won the first half 75% of the time. This equates to odds of 1.33. Betvictor are offering 2.05 which is exceptional value.
  10. Here are my comments for the upcoming midweek fixtures in Serie A. I look at recent and relevant games to find value bets. Pescara vs Milan - No team should be 23-1 in a two horse race, at the end of the season and when that team is playing at home. Sure Milan will probably win, but there must be value on the Asians. Pescara +2.25 pays 1.93. The Roma (vs Cheivo) and Bologna (vs Napoli) games look to be mis priced in the under 2.5 market. This has occurred in 53% and 63% of respective, similar games featuring these teams. The odds should be 1.88 and 1.60, respectively, however 2.9 and 2.40 respectively are widely available. Inter also look good value to beat Lazio, i price the odds at 2.30, but you can get 2.85. Good Luck everyone.
  11. Re: La Liga > 3rd - 6th May Getafe vs Sociedad. In similar games featuring these two teams, the away team has failed to win 83% of the time. Laying Sociedad seems to be the value bet. This equates to odds of 1.2, the bookies are offering 1.8, excellent value.
  12. Re: Norwich City v Reading > Sat 20th April [TABLE=width: 1407] [TR] [TD=class: xl175, width: 1407]In similar games featuring these two teams, the home team have won the second half 77% of the time. This equates to odds of 1.30. The bookmakers are offering 2.3 which represents 77% value. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
  13. Re: Arsenal v Everton > Tue 16th April Of the 23 similar games that have featured these two teams 61% have resulted in under 2.5 goals. This equates to odds of 1.64. Bookmakers are widely offering 2.28 which represents 40% value. Under 2.5 goals is my prediction
  14. Re: Ligue 1 > 12th - 14th April Apologies lorient vs bastia
  15. Re: Bundesliga > 12th - 14th April Apologies, Stuttgart vs B.M'gladbach
  16. Re: Serie A > 13th - 15th April I thought I would highlight a different market in this match, one that gets "blanket " priced by the betting markets. There is value to be had on the 2 or 3 goals market if you look at the correct selections. Milan vs Napoli is one such game and of the 37 similar games that have featured these two teams 2 or 3 goals have been scored 62% of the time. This represents odds of 1.61. Bookmakers always price this at the 2.00 mark and in this case this represents 24% value.
  17. Re: La Liga > 12th - 15th April Betis Draw No Bet is the value selection here based on the statistics. A total of 43 similar games have been played featuring these two teams that haven't resulted in a draw. The home team have won 67% of these games, the equivalent odds for this being 1.48. The bookmakers are pricing Betis draw no bet at 1.92. This represents 29% value.
  18. Re: Bundesliga > 12th - 14th April This game has the highest value rating on the over 2.5 goals market at 37% value. These two teams have featured in 70 similar games recently and over 2.5 goals have been scored in 61% of those games representing 1.63 in odds. 2.23 is widely available here, so a great value selection from a stats point of view.
  19. Re: Ligue 1 > 12th - 14th April The draw has occurred in 40% of similar games featuring these two teams. 3.60 is widely available but I put the odds at more like 2.5 based on the stats. The value on the draw is 44% on this analysis.
  20. Re: Reading v Liverpool > Sat 13th April As has been the case for most of the last few seasons Liverpool seem to be priced way too low if you compare to their actual performances away. Reading must be the value selection here and I want to highlight the value in the Home team to win either half. These two teams have featured in 26 similar games over the past few seasons and the home team has won either half in 46% of matches equating to 2.17 in odds. Bookmakers are offering up to 3.35 representing 55% Value.
  21. Re: La Liga > 5th - 8th April Getafe have played 7 games against similar opposition and Athletico Madrid have played 32 games. In these matches the Home team have won 51% of the time . This equates to odds of 1.94, representing 36% value for this selection. Getafe Draw No Bet seems logical.
  22. Re: Ligue 1 > 5th - 7th April Both teams to score NO is my selection. [TABLE=width: 1407] [TR] [TD=class: xl174, width: 1407]St Etienne have played 11 games against similar opposition and Evian Thonon Gaillard have played 11 games. In these matches both teams to score NO has happened 68% of the time. This equates to odds of 1.47 representing 25% value for the this selection. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
  23. Re: West Bromwich Albion v Arsenal > Sat 6th April The Half Time Draw looks an interesting bet. WestBrom have the highest HTD % in the league and it gets higher as the opposition get harder. West Broms HTD % against this type of opposition is 69% and Arsenals is 48%. I calculate the odds to be approx 1.88 but 2.35 is widely available, this represents 35% value.
  24. Re: Norwich City v Swansea City > Sat 6th April Have to agree with vmoney. Looking at the statistics Norwich have won 50% of games versus similar opposition and Swansea have lost 50% of their away games. Odds should be more like evens. Another interesting stat is in the half time full time market, the home team have been winning at half time and full time in 39% of games of this kind featuring the two teams. This equates to odds of 2.60. Bookmakers are widely offering 4.40, good value in my opinion.
  25. Juventus vs Pescara - 6th April 2013 I'm not sure that this will be as straightforward as the markets are suggesting. Juventus actually have a very poor record against teams they are expected to thrash, with plenty of draws. I would predict a small win for Juventus at best. With a 2 goal deficit to contend with next week in the champions league vs Bayern, surely their minds will be focused on this. My tip would be to back Pescara on the Asian Handicap +2.5, 1.80 is available.