BBOTD 26th March

[chris34]

2.30 Southwell Imtithal remains a maiden after 8 starts, ran to a respectable level on the AW last winter before going off the boil on turf, much better on return from break and clearly AW looks his trick. Only beaten length and a quarter last time out on first run for 257 days, obviously this is a quick enough turnaround and tries fibresand for first time. Keep It Dark lightly raced but not shown a huge amount to date and disappointed on first try on this surface when last seen in a weak maiden over 7f, not seen for 131 days so market will tell the story. Thereabouts comes from the Appleby yard who know what they are doing around here and have been in good form (perhaps not quite so good in past few days). He ran a good race behind the runaway winner in Frontier Fighter last time out runs off same mark and Morris strong booking. My worry is the trip, he shapes as if stamina is his things and this slower surface defenetily a plus in that side of things but may want a little further but has tried further and failed to do much and shaping a little tripless and one to tread carefully with given he has gone off at some short enough prices. Handsome King did show a reasonable level of fibresand form on first start around here before bombing out on next 2 starts here a worry but was last seen winning a maiden handicap at Yarmouth up 2lb but enough to oppose on this occasion. Bold Marc is capable on this surface but most of his form recently has come in claimers and sellers and needs to find more now. Royal Holiday is the most interesting for me. A real fibresand specialist all 4 wins coming on this surface including 2 here this winter last one off just a 3lb lower mark. He struggled to land a blow on return to this surface over 7f getting outpaced and never travelling. Much more like it last time out over a trip that probably stretches him, this return to a mile a positive and looks to have more in him on this surface. 1pt win Royal Holiday 3/1 >Bet365

[corky]

Re: BBOTD 26th March 1510 fontwell 1pt win jupiter rex 5/6 pp a winner on last 5 races and in this small field i see no reason why this wont continue,has won on various distances,on soft/heavy ground,and up in distance with a 5lb penalty with the more expierenced jockey on board,this horse will take all the beating

[last minute winner]

Re: BBOTD 26th March Jupiter Rex has done me no end of favours this year but his last race showed that the horse is certainly coming to the end of it's tether. A 5lb rise, in this kind of ground after a month on the sidelines is enough to convince me the horse could be about to come a cropper. The real trouble is that it's extremely hard to find who's going to beat it, so therefore it has to be a case of a simple lay bet. Fortification and the bottom weight look the two most likely to turn the jolly over. On balance what l think i'll do is wait till tomorrow morning when hopefully people will look to smash into it, possibly into 4/6 or shorter then hit the lay button. Lay Jupiter rex @4/6.

[Mitch_II]

Re: BBOTD 26th March Lingfield 15:20 - Bint Alzain - @ SP (1pt win) Running off of a very low mark with the claimer onboard, has been going close of late and may of needed its last run. Only other in the field that looks to be competitive is Electrician who likes to lead, this could play in to Bint Alzain's hands with having lots of late speed.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD 26th March 3.30 Southwell - Ryedale Dancer - 16/1 Bet365 Very competitive race where a strong case could be made for a few of these. I initially fancied Rambo Will as he's a horse I've always thought would do better over 5f and these conditions look ideal, off a basement mark I think he'll go close. At the prices though I've gone for Ryedale Dancer at a big each way price. She usually gives her running but I believe these conditions could be perfect for her. Some of her 5f form earlier in the season is interesting and with only 4 efforts in total over the trip she's open to improvement. Over 5f at Wolverhampton she's ran into some progressive sorts who've gone onto win races after plus one effort where the saddle slipped early on. She's usually finishing with a rattle over 5f which makes me think this more testing 5f with plenty of pace on here will suit her down to the ground. She's proven in her last 3 starts that she goes on this surface and being ridden up with the pace over 6f was never going to see her win. Off a very low mark I think she'll go well here but wouldnt be surprised to see Fairy Wing or Thorpe Bay win cosily.

[Ross1303]

Re: BBOTD 26th March Avertis lingfield 4.20 17/2 William Hill BOG Dead last run before last in a step up in class at Kempton hides this winters record of two wins and a third round here from three races. Favourite seems the obvious choice in this but if there's a surprise to be had Avertis can spring this one. Plenty at lower prices with less sound claims. 1pt win

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD 26th March 5.20 Lingfield Roman Senate 1pt win @ 12/1 Bet365 Probably not the best race to get involved in as plenty of these find it very hard to get their head in front but I do like the look of Roman Senate. This will be the horses first run at Lingfield, and I would expect this trip at this track to suit him much more than Kempton, which can take some getting. He has looked like a non-stayer when trying 12f at Kempton recently and I am hoping this drop back in trip will suit. His 2 best efforts came back to back last year at Wolves and Kempton over 9f and 10f off around his current mark. He is a horse that finds plenty for pressure so I am hoping Steve Drowne can get a good tune out of him tomorrow.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD 26th March *Frosty Friday > Lingfield 5:20 > WIN @ 7/1 Bet365 BOG* Still a maiden after 17 runs, but has some placed form in the book that would put him bang in the mix, and every horse has it's day. Runs off 55 tomorrow, which seems quite leniant, last handicap mark was 62. Ran well here in January when 3rd to Sporting Gold, a horse that looks quite decent for the Varian stable. Off this mark, should definately be feared imo.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD 26th March 210 Fontwell: Westaway 1pt 11/4 PP Novice hurdle here and not much strength in depth really, the Longsdon horse is respected having made his debut over hurdles in a much better race at Newbury but didnt show that much and will be a chaser down the line and the others look plodders apart from Westaway whos debut at Ascot was a cracking effort splitting a good winner and Fiddlers Bid who would be a strong fav in this company. We are getting a price because Westaway disappointed next time out and the combination of stepping up in trip and making a bad blunder at the wrong time conspired into ending up a well beaten fifth that day. This is much easier and has to go close surely and the price is fair value in my opinion, should be around 7/4?

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD 26th March F3.40 Current Climate 1pt Win 12/1 Stan James This one's been drifting all morning but I won't let that put me off since it looks to be in with a great chance. It seems to have been readily dismissed on the grounds that 2 of its rivals beat it over c&d last time out but that ground was nowhere near soft enough for the horse and todays ground will certainly play to the horses strengths. The horse has won 2 of its 5 chases on softish ground over 3 miles+ and indeed todays jockey has the same strike rate (2 from 5) on the horse. Both are interesting stats when you consider that the horses career stats are 2 wins from 18 runs. Both those wins were at this course, one being over c&d so the horse looks to have its optimal conditions here today.

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD 26th March 14.50 Lingfield: Nautilus, 15/8 BetVictor, win Nautilus is making his debut today. He is a Medicean colt out of a Danehill mare. He has the same sire and dam's sire as a few class 1 winners, including two-time group 1 winner Siyouma and 12f group 2 winner Sapphire, as well as a few all-weather winners so today's course and distance will hopefully suit Nautilus. His dam was a listed winner over today's distance. She has produced five other racehorses, with three of them winning, including group three winner Tarfah. Trainer John Gosden has a great record at Lingfield with a 24% SR from 159 runners for a lsp of £30.98. He is in decent form with 1 winner and 4 places from six runners in the last two weeks. Jockey William Buick travels to Lingfield for this one ride. He has a 22% SR here on 3yo's (19% overall). Trainer and jockey have had 176 wins from 850 runs for a small profit.

[Primevil]

Re: BBOTD 26th March THORPE BAY 11/4 STAN JAMES 3.30 SOUTHWELL. Well clear on ratings, against some very average opposition. Still only a 4yo, and improvement likely all to come. But last Saturday over 6, was narrowley out run, but always up with the pace, and having some decent 5f horses struggling. He is bang in form, on a low mark, and a winner waiting to happen. Im sure he will be the anchor in many doudles n trebles today, Yard in for also, great SR on this surface(new). Today the step down for me only helps, and the best apprentice around comes to take the 3lb off, which is worth double IMO. Should be a 7/4 chance in my book. 10/10 Full of confidence win bet.:D

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD 26th March 15:30 Southwell Marshall Art - I can't seem to cry a winner at the minute but if I didn't back this and it gets home I would kick myself. If the going is slower than normal here it will have a chance. It hits top of the RPR with the favourite. Untried over distance but is a course winner. When winning (58) with 5lb claimer Thomas Brown onboard trainer David Evans quoted "This track has really suited him. He´s got early speed and keeps up a gallop, but he doesn´t really quicken." Marshall Art will need to get out of the blocks early today (60) with a 7lb claimer onboard for the chance to stay on but 40/1 W.Hill is a price to tempt me in. 0.5EW

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD 26th March

THORPE BAY 11/4 STAN JAMES 3.30 SOUTHWELL. Well clear on ratings, against some very average opposition. Still only a 4yo, and improvement likely all to come. But last Saturday over 6, was narrowley out run, but always up with the pace, and having some decent 5f horses struggling. He is bang in form, on a low mark, and a winner waiting to happen. Im sure he will be the anchor in many doudles n trebles today, Yard in for also, great SR on this surface(new). Today the step down for me only helps, and the best apprentice around comes to take the 3lb off, which is worth double IMO. Should be a 7/4 chance in my book. 10/10 Full of confidence win bet.:D

Im pretty stumped with this race now Ryedale Dancer has been pulled, had quite a strong suspicion that one would outrun its price. Now I dunno what to think, I agree with markmywords that Marshall Art is probably over priced at 40/1 in an 8 runner race, wouldnt be surprised to see that one place. On form alone Fairy Wing shouldnt be available at 10/1, but dont trust those connections for a second so tough to back such a drifter. Wish I'd backed Rambo Will last night at 7s, think he'll go close. Then you make a pretty compelling case for Thorpe Bay, the jockey booking is definitely an eye catcher. So all in all, f*ck knows, I'll watch and moan that I was gunna back the winner

[Primevil]

Re: BBOTD 26th March

Im pretty stumped with this race now Ryedale Dancer has been pulled' date=' had quite a strong suspicion that one would outrun its price. Now I dunno what to think, I agree with markmywords that Marshall Art is probably over priced at 40/1 in an 8 runner race, wouldnt be surprised to see that one place. On form alone Fairy Wing shouldnt be available at 10/1, but dont trust those connections for a second so tough to back such a drifter. Wish I'd backed Rambo Will last night at 7s, think he'll go close. Then you make a pretty compelling case for Thorpe Bay, the jockey booking is definitely an eye catcher. So all in all, f*ck knows, I'll watch and moan that I was gunna back the winner[/quote'] There is no doubt, Rambo Will .& Lesleys choice.Spic n Span.Will take them along if they are to stand any chance. My feeling is they will do too much, and be fading in the final furlong. Cutting each other throats. As Thorpe Bay is housed in the middle of them he should be right on their tales, getting pulled into it, and Hopefully the extra staying power will see him thru. I dont trust the VJ yard, however there is no eveidence to say Fairy wing, will be able to go this pace today, and the weight diff, Not for me. Thorpe Bay will never get a better chance today, for how this race will play out. Chateau Lola n Steel City Boy, will be staying on past beaten horses for me.:D

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD 26th March Fairy Wing has showed decent pace over 6f before so I think that one will go the pace, but with some real speedsters on here you could be right. I like the way he travelled lto before not finding as much as it looked at one point, I'm interested in those sorts dropped in trip. The weight pull with Thorpe Bay is a big concern though but a big difference in price at the moment. I'm interested to see the prices when they open up, if Thorpe Bay touches 11/4-3/1 then I could be tempted.

[Cashew]

Re: BBOTD 26th March 3.40 - Fontwell - Wild Ground - 1pt @ 4/1 Bet365 Struggled today but this one jumped out at me. Wild Ground certainly likes this trip and this course having won 3 C&D this winter. I've heard a few mentions of Princely Hero but this is a horse that was beaten by 4L by Wild Ground last time out here. Horse and jockey have a 50% SR. On a day that not a lot stands out, I keep getting drawn back to Wild Ground, everything points in her favour, course, distance, a jockey and trainer also with good records here.

[Primevil]

Re: BBOTD 26th March

Fairy Wing has showed decent pace over 6f before so I think that one will go the pace' date=' but with some real speedsters on here you could be right. I like the way he travelled lto before not finding as much as it looked at one point, I'm interested in those sorts dropped in trip. The weight pull with Thorpe Bay is a big concern though but a big difference in price at the moment. I'm interested to see the prices when they open up, if Thorpe Bay touches 11/4-3/1 then I could be tempted.[/quote'] You may get it,,Money coming for Rambo will, Yes you have to be up there with the pace on this surface, trying to make 3 lens in 300 yards doesnt work here, But Rambo will wont be dictating his own fractions here, they will blister thru the first 3 furlongs. Thats why i favour, something that gets 5 1/2 all day. As for the 6f race the other day, the 6lb swing plus DE 3lb, is a no brainer, IMO.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD 26th March 3.30 Southwell - 1pt win Lesleys Choice @ 9/2 (Boyles) Has been running in claimers off very unfavourable terms hence him being sent off at 50/1, 40/1, 33/1 and 50/1 the last four times he's seen the track and his unsurprisingly uncompetitive runs have seen his mark drop down. This is far more ideal under top circumstances - has a good record here including 3 c&d victories - and is off a good mark. The blinkers are back on today which is another plus and Graham Lee is booked. He has a 25% strike rate at the track and suggests this one is ready to go this afternoon. Can blast out from the front and be tough to get past for a yard in sparkling form.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 26th March 3:50 Lingfield - Buy Art - BaBack Won a trappy looking 3 runner here only a couple of days ago and won it really nicely. Turned over a odds on favourite convincingly and looks to be in really good heart. This is competitive but he looks to have a big chance and I fancy him to follow up here 1pt win @ Evens Hills BOG

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD 26th March

You may get it,,Money coming for Rambo will, Yes you have to be up there with the pace on this surface, trying to make 3 lens in 300 yards doesnt work here, But Rambo will wont be dictating his own fractions here, they will blister thru the first 3 furlongs. Thats why i favour, something that gets 5 1/2 all day. As for the 6f race the other day, the 6lb swing plus DE 3lb, is a no brainer, IMO.

Pretty tilting having not backed Fairy Wing, didnt back anything but on form alone I knew Fairy Wing was over priced earlier today. Unlucky with Thorpe Bay, looks a frustrating horse now, unbackable in the future at short prices.

[Irishbugger]

Re: BBOTD 26th March 5.20pm @ Lingfield - 'Salient' 9/1 (Ladbrokes BOG) Not a great selection of races only getting online at this time but there appears to be value taking on Young Jackie here and the rest don't look much either. This horse finished close-up with the favourite last time out and with the assistance of Seb Sanders in the saddle today surely must go close in such a bad race. I don't see why there should be such a gap in pricing between Young Jackie and Salient and definitely feel at these prices, the Attwater horse is the one to be on. 1 point win

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD 26th March 5.30 Sou - Moe's Place - win at 13/8 bog wm hill Has some good course form here in maidens having finished 2nd the last twice with a decent speed fig last time out Up a furlong which shouldn't be a problem and looks OK off a mark of 65 on handicap debut