Turning the screw

[mowgli77]

Re: Turning the screw

Getting back on topic, I do think that Timeform are ahead of the game and there is a defiante possibility that Betfair/Exchange SP becomes the industry standard when returns are given out for Racing. I don't know what percentage of Bookmaker profit is through Horse Racing anymore but I'm not even sure they would be completely against it either if the income from FOBTs, Football, 49s and Virtual Racing is enough. I know my natural inclination is to talk/discuss in Betfair SP, exchange movements and decimal odds now which I would have seen as ridiculous even 4 or 5 years ago! I've quite possibly been very slow on the uptake mind you :(

I'm still comfortable with fractions but Maths was never my favourite subject at school, it was the only one I got thrown out of for putting my hand up to ask a question. :( Isn't the SP made up of an average from on course bookies or something? I was discussing it with Whoneedsrio and we were talking about one of the aw meetings when there were only a handful of bookies turned up. One thing I have noticed that you've picked up on is the market moves (drifts and backs) specifically around 5-10 mins before the off. There were some at Donny, horses like Thimaar drifting from 9-1 to 18-1 just 5 mins before the off and running like a donkey. I think they are more significant now than ever before.

[The Saint]

Re: Turning the screw

I'm still comfortable with fractions but Maths was never my favourite subject at school' date=' it was the only one I got thrown out of for putting my hand up to ask a question. :( Isn't the SP made up of an average from on course bookies or something? I was discussing it with Whoneedsrio and we were talking about one of the aw meetings when there were only a handful of bookies turned up. One thing I have noticed that you've picked up on is the market moves (drifts and backs) specifically around 5-10 mins before the off. There were some at Donny, horses like Thimaar drifting from 9-1 to 18-1 just 5 mins before the off and running like a donkey. I think they are more significant now than ever before.[/quote'] 100% agree with you about the Market Moves - it's something that I've looked at and acted upon since the 'Bent AW thread'. Unless it's something ridiculous like 4.5 out to 14.5, if a horse that I've backed drifts by more than 2% in the last 5 minutes of betting than I'll trade out - usually for a small loss but not always if I've got on early at a good enough price. Similarly with potential 'lay' bets, if I note any significant inward movement in the last 5 minutes of betting then I don't lay it. Can make bets few and far between but I'd almost guarantee that currently, this would improve anyones Long Term Strike Rate and ROI. Can't recommend enough - please don't anyone change what they are doing on my account but keep a note of market movements (exchange) 5 minutes before the off and see if you would have been better or worse off over your next 200 bets! A sample of 1 is not evidence to the contrary!! :ok With due credit given to Statman who posts on here on occassion. One thing worth pointing out is that on occassion, possibly because there are only 2 or 3 Bookies on course, inward market moves are not always refelceted on the exchanges which I personally would regard as more significant. Not always possible on course I know.

[mowgli77]

Re: Turning the screw

100% agree with you about the Market Moves - it's something that I've looked at and acted upon since the 'Bent AW thread'. Unless it's something ridiculous like 4.5 out to 14.5, if a horse that I've backed drifts by more than 2% in the last 5 minutes of betting than I'll trade out - usually for a small loss but not always if I've got on early at a good enough price. Similarly with potential 'lay' bets, if I note any significant inward movement in the last 5 minutes of betting then I don't lay it. Can make bets few and far between but I'd almost guarantee that currently, this would improve anyones Long Term Strike Rate and ROI. Can't recommend enough - please don't anyone change what they are doing on my account but keep a note of market movements (exchange) 5 minutes before the off and see if you would have been better or worse off over your next 200 bets! A sample of 1 is not evidence to the contrary!! :ok With due credit given to Statman who posts on here on occassion. One thing worth pointing out is that on occassion, possibly because there are only 2 or 3 Bookies on course, inward market moves are not always refelceted on the exchanges which I personally would regard as more significant. Not always possible on course I know.

Do you think the on course bookies are just reacting to whatever is happening on Betfair most of the time though? As discussed previously they are traders these days rather than bookies. They have their own computer and one showing Betfair. They'll offer me 5-1 on course for a horse they can back at higher odds with the exchanges so they can't really lose. Do you think the same applies to the bookies as I've not looked at it close enough. If a horse drifts signficantly with the bookies (such as the Thimaar example) is that a reaction due to a drift on the exchanges? I believe Thimaar had drifted to a high of 23.0 with Betfair as Whoneedsrio checked it on his phone.

[The Saint]

Re: Turning the screw

Do you think the on course bookies are just reacting to whatever is happening on Betfair most of the time though? As discussed previously they are traders these days rather than bookies. They have their own computer and one showing Betfair. They'll offer me 5-1 on course for a horse they can back at higher odds with the exchanges so they can't really lose. Do you think the same applies to the bookies as I've not looked at it close enough. If a horse drifts signficantly with the bookies (such as the Thimaar example) is that a reaction due to a drift on the exchanges? I believe Thimaar had drifted to a high of 23.0 with Betfair as Whoneedsrio checked it on his phone.

Yep! Absolutely they are. I didn't want to say exactly this but will now it is more appropriate - sometimes, the market on course will show say a Horse trained by Mark Prescott as drifting from 9/4 to 5/1.... The exchange price will be slightly above this which is normal.... Sometimes - the on course market will then move the horse back into 9/4 joint fav but the price will remain around 6.0 on Betfair. It will appear dramatic and many will then bet following this false market. It is possible, (although obviously I have no conclusive proof) that on days where only 2 or 3 Bookmakers are present on course that SPs are shortened artificially. NOT ALWAYS - but that is a possibility and the reason I use the exchanges as a guide to the market as opposed to Bookmakers prices. If they are backing back on Betfair and taking massive money on course then that's gonna show up on the exchanges - if they are not taking real money on anything then it won't. That's just my opinon and in a year or 3s time the whole playing field may have changed again. Who would have thought that the On Course/High Street Bookmaker would have had to change so much and we'd be on such a level playing field 15 years ago. Regardless of my whining about shortening horses after they have been withdrawn and limited accounts, I can promise anyone that is reading that as Punters we have never had it so good - well - maybe 3-6 years ago it was easier but it's certainly easier since the exchanges than 20 years back!

[mowgli77]

Re: Turning the screw

Yep! Absolutely they are. I didn't want to say exactly this but will now it is more appropriate - sometimes, the market on course will show say a Horse trained by Mark Prescott as drifting from 9/4 to 5/1.... The exchange price will be slightly above this which is normal.... Sometimes - the on course market will then move the horse back into 9/4 joint fav but the price will remain around 6.0 on Betfair. It will appear dramatic and many will then bet following this false market. It is possible, (although obviously I have no conclusive proof) that on days where only 2 or 3 Bookmakers are present on course that SPs are shortened artificially. NOT ALWAYS - but that is a possibility and the reason I use the exchanges as a guide to the market as opposed to Bookmakers prices. If they are backing back on Betfair and taking massive money on course then that's gonna show up on the exchanges - if they are not taking real money on anything then it won't. That's just my opinon and in a year or 3s time the whole playing field may have changed again. Who would have thought that the On Course/High Street Bookmaker would have had to change so much and we'd be on such a level playing field 15 years ago. Regardless of my whining about shortening horses after they have been withdrawn and limited accounts, I can promise anyone that is reading that as Punters we have never had it so good - well - maybe 3-6 years ago it was easier but it's certainly easier since the exchanges than 20 years back!

We did comment that a few brown envelopes could be passed to the 3 or 4 bookies on course to make sure the SP's were short (for anyone that does back at SP). ;)

[The Saint]

Re: Turning the screw

We did comment that a few brown envelopes could be passed to the 3 or 4 bookies on course to make sure the SP's were short (for anyone that does back at SP). ;)

Couldn't comment! Ask a Punter to come up with potential conspiracy theories and there would be many put forward!! Don't want to add to that :loon I think that apart from the market and it's movements, the most important(and obvious) point to come from this thread thus far, is that if you can and you are exchange averse, shop around the Bookmakers ONLINE and DO NOT use the shops! Online betting has many advantages including more competition and BOG. Unless you are going into a shop to take a stand out price and are then leaving immediatly then why bother!? If there are arguments to the contrary I'd be interested to hear them.

[Aidymac]

Re: Turning the screw

I'd like to rise above this but I can't. Are you kidding me!?! You've just jumped all over me now haven't u?? I don't agree in the slightest Aidy - I must have started a ton of posts that were good disscussion posts last year. I've got no problem with Racing at all. I've accepted it's corrupt and I've adjusted the way I bet in accordance with what I believe. I DO have a massive problem with cheating and rule breaking but that's because I treat Horse Racing as a sport and hate cheating across all sport. I love Racing - I go racing and have worked in racing. I have a problem/grudge with Bookmakers and have no idea why you think I am ante horse racing!! I am genuinnly interested to know where you draw these conclusions from. I've often defended Jockey's and we all know that Trainers don't always run their horses on their merits but so what - I've rarely complained about this - just learned from it. The Bookmakers threads have been deleted - it's not in the Bookmakers section anymore - and I apologise unreservedly if it is still there. Not entirely sure why moderating has come up either - I stated in my last post that I have no problem with the site or the moderation. I think you are being a little paranoid if I'm honest. As YOU bought it up, I think that the Admin you do as a moderator is 2nd only to BH and one can only admire your committment, passion and dedication for that. I don't think you come down on newbies liek a tonne of bricks at all. If I have any criticism at all it's that you do pick on certain posters - Primevil and Erhaab for 2 and I guess I'll add myself to that list too!! To be completely Black and White, I preferred it when you weren't moderating purely becasue we could argue and discuss things on a level playing field where as now I don't feel I am talking to the real you whom I 'met' on the forum a year ago or whatever. I'm glad you agree with exactly what I said concerning the site turning into a circus but please don't assume to tell me what will and won't be tolerated. I appreciate your work Aidy but that really does sound heavy handed. It IS hard to take considering that you can be at least as aggressive as me and other posters and have been in the past. If getting your name in Red gives you a pass for all previous misdemenours then so be it - good on ya. I've got no grudge with you at all - just becasue I think you are a better poster when you were being yourself it does not mean I have a problem with you at all. Madness!!!

Ok, fair enough mate.

[The Saint]

Re: Turning the screw

Ok' date=' fair enough mate.[/quote'] Cheers Aidy - I got no problem with you calling me(not that you have!) or thinking I'm a T***! As long as I can give it back!;)

[Aidymac]

Re: Turning the screw

Cheers Aidy - I got no problem with you calling me(not that you have!) or thinking I'm a T***! As long as I can give it back!;)

I don't think your anything mate, I want to get on with everybody. If you knew me in person, you would see that.

[ExpectTheUnexpected]

Re: Turning the screw On the actual topic of screw turning, I'd argue an element of it may come from the screw being turned on bookmakers. The exchanges, levy, machines tax and now proposed machine stake limits, while employing so many retail staff does hurt. Their profit margins are still telephone numbers, but I would add that they have to be to keep shareholders satisfied. The problem is the lack of strategic thinking. They obsess over leading the way in machines, or offering the best odds at Cheltenham, but no thought is given to what comes after machines fade out, or the midweek cards start to disappear. Now is the perfect time, in a stagnant world market to be thinking outside the box and really move the goalposts, but they won't. While they perhaps only have themselves to blame for lacking the business sense, it does serve as an answer as to why it happens. It's not to increase profit, its to maintain imo.

[jayalexander]

Re: Turning the screw Great reply, ExpectTheUnexpected!

[erhaab1965]

Re: Turning the screw

Nothing has been deleted from the Jockeys or Trainers thread so not sure what the problem is there, the bookmakers have a section of their own because of any problems that may arise then Paul needs to know about it so its better all in one place. (the PL has helped many punters in that section with queries by the way, but that wont get reported!) Basically you can say what you like about who you like, no rules here, but don't be surprised if others give the opposite view to you, when that happens dont take it as the PL Police are on your case like Mr erhaab seems to do all of the time.

I did post somewhere that the BBOTD company was too aggressively policed on occasions, sometimes dropping a ton of bricks on members for quoting a price which shortened a few minutes earlier.( yes I know I don't participate but I do read them from time to time ). My post was deleted within minutes. I have also noticed other posts deleted too.

[erhaab1965]

Re: Turning the screw I was in Ladbrokes on Thursday afternoon enjoying my free coffee and a read of the Racing Post. I'm not a prolific backer of horses unlike in the past, but was enticed by their money back offer at selected meetings if your selection was beaten by a neck or less for bets from £5 to £25. They've been running this offer for a few weeks now. I backed 2 of Graham Lee's mounts at decent prices which narrowly failed.The refunds were in the form of a free bet which I used on long term ante post bets. This is seemingly a good offer from Ladbrokes. In total there were 3 races which triggered of a refund. Whilst I was in there I noticed they were NRNB on the Grand National which is again seemingly very generous however upon closer inspection it may not be. Many of the selections can be backed elsewhere at bigger odds, the fav is industry worst odds at 6/1, which is an awful price at the moment, there's every chance it could be a lot bigger odds the evening before. Also at the bottom of the screen it says R4 may apply. Are there industry rules on when R4s can be applied or do they make their own rules up.Is it still considered an ante post bet given its 9 days away? If you take the current 6/1 and then apply R4s which they most likely will, is it value for the punters? Is this them turning the screw a bit tighter on ante post bets?

[Primevil]

Re: Turning the screw Oh the old have their cake n eat it....small print of course., not just ladbrokes, several are the same. To offer Ante post and declare a rule 4, is nothing but a F disgrace, The biggest race in the world, and they still want you over a barrel. Here is my advice For Grand National betting, so you dont get hit with the Bookies small print RULE 4, Wait until Tuesday morning...The majority will go NRNB, and by then check your horse, 1. Has a jockey booked in the RP 2. Go onto the trainers website, just check his/her latest comments. Double declarations etc 3. Check betfair, make sure there is no drift. 4. If your horse is slightley out of the top 40, there may be guranteed NR's above, as they have run in the Irish national. You then should be in the picture of were you stand. ABOVE ALL ELSE ...THEY(the bookies) WILL CRAMP THE BOOK EVEN MORE IN THE LAST 24 HRS. VERY RARE THEY STICK THEIR NECK OUT ON A HORSE ON SATURDAY MORNING...Check betfair, to see if you are getting a fair price. Look for first 5, or even 6 e/w terms online...NONE OF THE HIGH ST..Apart from PADDY POWER, (maybe) will go first 5, SHOP AROUND. Dont be lazy. :ok

[BillyHills]

Re: Turning the screw

I did post somewhere that the BBOTD company was too aggressively policed on occasions' date=' sometimes dropping a ton of bricks on members for quoting a price which shortened a few minutes earlier.( yes I know I don't participate but I do read them from time to time ). My post was deleted within minutes. I have also noticed other posts deleted too.[/quote'] BBOTD is different to any other thread because we have to have strict rules for it to work, if you had participated in it you would understand the problems we get from time to time. Its not always the posters fault as they don't know its a competition half the time and i do take that into consideration before getting the baton out to punish them with. I apologise if your posts were deleted from that section, i cant think why that would have happened to be honest apart from maybe it had no point to it and was just another moan at the establishment?

[erhaab1965]

Re: Turning the screw I'm sure many members on here as well as regular horse racing punters had put their bets before the day of the race at the best possible odds , knowing full well that most horses will be shortened by post time. Hills and Laddies both offered 12/1 the field from the morning, not sure how much was laid though, but much better than the 7/1 and 6/1 offered about On Your Own in the fortnight leading up the race. I personally had some 14s about Seabass and topped up with some 10/1 during the week.There was some 12/1 in the morning, but the SP of 11/2 in this particular race is ridiculous. Most of the money taken after mid morning will be mostly mug / casual punters money. Another example of them turning the screw.Had it won they would probably have made a profit given how much they shortened it and the number of horses in the field. Regardless of what the bookies say in Sundays Racing Post, they cleaned up despite 2 shorties coming second and third

[BillyHills]

Re: Turning the screw My Mrs works in the raceroom for a bookmaker and every time the phone rang it was for Seabass, amazing amount of people wanted to be on this at any price? Strangely a few asked what price it was for a lady jockey to win the race??? Shows how clueless some people who bet on the National are. Maybe they thought they would get a better price than just backing Seabass??? Makes you wonder. Great result for the bookies, she's hoping for a bonus now:lol

[staffy]

I think its fair to say the bookies made a killing. My mrs is currently a relief manager and even tho its a small shop they still had to bank a couple times in the day and still had enough in the shop. And she cant remember anyone backing the winner. Happy days for the bookies as for the fav being so short thats just mugs money. Sent from my GT-I8160 using PL Forum

[mowgli77]

Re: Turning the screw Yesterday was the perfect occasion to shorten a runner and catch a few bites. You see the mugs in the betting shops chasing a price down because they want to be part of a gamble. They don't have a cut off point, any price will do, a winner's a winner. Seabass was the perfect horse to do that with, female jockey, ran quite well last year. Mugs lump on regardless and the bookies laugh all the way to the bank. My brother and cousin went into the local Betfred, one bets occasionally, the other has never been in a bookies yet both put £24 on over 6 horses (£2 ew per runner) and managed just a place or two between them.

[bowles10]

Re: Turning the screw no matter what they say, the bookies hosed up with this result all the papers highlighted the lady jockey factor and the bookies were happy to cut it down as the money came in. Every year there is a story and this was it. The bookies have to thank the papers a lot for the coverage on Seabass and no doubt it was all part of thier plan. These things are normally pre-judged as they are always looking for that springer in the market.

[BillyHills]

Re: Turning the screw My only winning bet on the National was backing Seabass to be fav, 5/4 with SJ on Friday night. Had been 5/2 but you cant look a gift horse in the mouth.:p