jump racing saturday 12th january

[beaker1]

1:50 Warwick – Betfred Mobile Lotto Novices’ Chase ROCKY CREEK is a horse that I have high hopes for and believe is a serious contender for the RSA Chase, so I can’t oppose him here. Last time he travelled like a good horse and stayed on strongly to defeat Molotof, who went on to run well in the Grade One Feltham Chase behind Dynaste. First time over fences, he was just in need of the run and that cost him victory against Harry Topper who franked the form with a Grade Two win next time out. His strong staying qualities will be a useful asset in this race as on soft ground, the three miles may take some getting, but he will just jump and gallop and will stay all the way to the line. It is worth remembering that in points he easily beat Rolling Aces, who is now rated 145 over fences, so a mark of 142 looks lenient, but saying that, he is still the highest rated horse in the race and he receives three pounds from two of his opponents. All in all, he deserves to be a strong favourite for this and I fully expect him to win. 3:15 Kempton – William Hill – Download The App Handicap Chase Alan King has already had a couple of winners this week and in STONEY’S TREASURE he is fancied to get another. Never out of the first four in six completed starts over fences, he is expected to improve a lot for his recent run behind Restless Harry. He faced a tough task that day trying to concede seven pounds to a talented opponent (now rated 140), but he runs off a mark of just 128 in this. He looked a progressive novice at the end of last season and I know connections fancy his chances in this, so it easy to see him running well over a trip that suits. 3:35 Warwick – Betfred Classic Chase RESTLESS HARRY is a horse that I have followed for a few years now and I always believed that this ex-pointer, would develop into a decent chaser. Over hurdles, he achieved a rating of 157, so a mark of 140 for his handicap debut over fences looks fair. Last season he finished just one length behind Teaforthree (now rated 151) on his chase debut and then ran another good race behind him at Chepstow on his only other start over fences, before returning to hurdles. His attention has now been moved to fences and after a fair seasonal debut, he made all at Newbury to easily win a graduation chase. He is proven on soft ground, his stable is in fair form and he has promised to be suited by a marathon trip, so I am expecting him to run very well. Flying Award is an interesting runner and worthy of each-way support. He is an experienced pointer and has now won three of his five starts over fences (under rules). He impressed last time out on heavy ground and prior to that stayed on well to win over three miles six furlongs at Bangor, so he has no stamina doubts and in what could be a stamina sapping race, he has just ten stone three to carry and that could be crucial. He is a proven stayer who will handle the ground, is on a hat-trick of wins, so has to be taken seriously and if he was trained by one of the top yards, he would be much shorter in the betting, so looks a good each-way selection. 3:50 Kempton – William Hill – Download The App Handicap Hurdle FORGOTTEN VOICE was a class act on the flat, rated 113 at his peak and was not disgraced when trying to give weight to Rip Van Winkle in the Sussex Stakes. He has also looked good over hurdles, winning both starts very easily. The handicapper has not been faced with an easy task in rating him for his handicap debut and it is possible that a rating of 140 could be lenient. Both runs have been on decent ground and although conditions will be a little softer today (good to soft), they should be fine and I get a feeling that the trip and track will suit. The useful Jeremiah McGrath takes five pounds off his back and I can see him being hard to beat on a track that his trainer (Nicky Henderson) does very well at.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january Kempton 2.05 – Ballylegend 9/2 Bet365 There is only a couple in this for me, unless something improves unexpectedly! My other main fancy Goring One looks to want further these days so Ballylegend it is. The form of his last two runs have looked solid and they have been run at a decent pace which is a plus. He would have finished closer to the winner here in November but for clouting the final fence & I am hoping he can go one better. His previous run at Taunton looks strong with the winner seemingly very progressive and the final fence faller hacking up back here in a C3 novice event. The forecasted sounder surface will also be a plus.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january Kempton 240 – Lamb Or Cod 14/1 Bet365 & Aruldur 11/1 BetVictor Tough race this and the big trainers have strong representatives, although I do think they are a little short and worth taking on. Bears Affair has won nicely the last twice but 152 is a stiff mark for those achievements. Oscara Dara could prove this mark all wrong but its hard to work out how good he is and this is a very competitive race. Black Thunder looks progressive and his form is decent and he would probably the one of these I would plump for if you forced me. The first one I have gone with is a potentially interesting runner. He has won a G3 at Chepstow where the form looks to have worked out (2^nd & 3^rd worth their marks, 4^th placed in the 130’s since and 5^th won and placed off 129 & 135 respectively in C2 handicaps). He then ran poorly on his next run in November where a breathing problem was blamed. He has been off for 7 weeks since and hopefully that is all sorted and if so he could run well off this mark. Aruldur is another that I thought about when he won LTO on his return to hurdling where he won a very competitive race where the form again looks very solid (2^nd rated 132, 3^rd won since in C3 & 4^th progressive). The way he stayed on there suggests this track might be a little sharp but a good pace is almost guaranteed here and there could be more to come seeing as that was his first run of the season.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january Kempton 3.15 – Handtheprizeover 9/2 Boylesports Won well last time out which was frustrating for me I was on quite heavy (for me!) on the 2^nd placed horse. I thought that one was well handicapped off 130 so this one must have a big chance off 116! The thing that impressed me most about that win was firstly how far away they pulled from the 3^rd place horse & then how well he jumped and stayed on again once the 2^nd placed horse came close. That counts for a lot in these type of races and I will fancy him to do a similar thing tomorrow. Of the others, Stoney Treasure could run well on his second start back but Im not sure if he is well in on old form, Baile Anrai was well backed LTO but ran a stinker and could do better here and Kingsmere could be a very good horse if he manages to stay on his feet and may be worth a small saver at the prices (currently 9/1 Betfred).

[BillyHills]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january

240 Kempton: William Hill Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Listed) (2m5f) As competitive as ever the Lanzarote Hurdle promises to be a battle between several nice unexposed types from the big yards. Black Thunder, Bears Affair and Oscara Dara all have to be respected and of the three I like the look of Barry Geraghty’s mount Oscara Dara and it wouldn’t surprise me if the money came for this one. Of the others I’d take a chance on Victor Leudorum at the prices, he could be well handicapped and first time out may be the time to catch him. Selections: 2pts Oscara Dara 11/2

Blue Square

1pt EW Victor Leudorum 18/1

Stan James

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[StuSimmy]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january 14:40 Kempton In my opinion the winner of this listed hurdle race is going to come from one of the top four in the weights. The Nicky Henderson pair both hold strong claims with Barry Geraghty opting to ride the lightly raced Oscar Dara who enters handicap company for the first time off a mark of 140. This mark seems fair enough and the horse did run a respectable race in behind Cantlow last time out at Plumpton and it will be interesting to see how he fares in his first handicap race. Bear's Affair is lightly raced himself having only had two more runs in which he has notched up five wins, one of which over today's course and distance. His latest victory was at Aintree where he ran out a very impressive 10 length winner. Up 12lbs for that but Jeremiah McGrath takes over the saddle again to take 5lbs off. Paul Nicholls Black Thunder can't be ignored despite a 6lb rise for finishing 2nd LTO, however Harry Derham takes off 5lbs which effectively makes him only 1lb higher. He ran home like a train under Ruby Walsh last time out at Haydock in a decent race but just couldn't get up to land the win. Those three are the current market leaders and although I feel the prices on offer for the three are worth punting on, I am siding with a horse which represents a lot more value in my opinion and that is the hat-trick seeking Loose Chips who has won his last two races over today's course and distance. This horse is clearly on the up and a 12lb rise may not be enough to stop him going in again or at the very least sneaking into the places at what is a very generous price. With only 11 races to date he is also lightly raced much like the other three I have mentioned. Charlie Longsdon is a shrewd trainer and has been in decent enough form so far in 2012-2013. Nick Scholfield takes over the ride from Noel Fehily but he is more than capable of riding this horse to victory. I expect similar tactics to be adopted from his two previous wins where by the horse will look to make all. I liked the manner of both those victories and with four places up for grabs I will be taking my chances each way on this horse. 2pt E/W Loose Chips @ 12/1 (Bet365 - BOG - 1/2/3/4)

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january Warwick 225 – Holywell 6/1 Bet365 I think this horse has some very solid form in the bank, especially the G3 hurdle he contested LTO where the runners around him have either run well since or had ran well previously. His mark looks very fair plus he has the class angle which can make the difference in these big handicaps. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Alpha Victor run well as the form of his wins at Haydock and Aintree look very good in the context of this race.

[Lodge]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january 15.50 - Kempton - Turn Over Sivola @ 13/2 William Hill / StanJames I think the slightly better ground that Turn Over Sivola will encounter tomorrow will certainly mean that he will go closer than last time out at Cheltenham. That was his handicap debut and he certainly shaped better than his 29L defeat suggests. He travelled well before fading fairly late on and i feel that the slightly better ground and less testing course should play into his favour tomorrow. Considering his unexposed nature his opening mark of 123 doesn't look that harsh, he won a novice hurdle at Plumpton in his previous run in good fashion and some of his other novice/maiden form looks decent. Robert Thornton onboard for Alan King who does well with his hurdlers and hopefully he's got another decent one here in Turn Over Sivola

[bowles10]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january 2.40 Kempton Lanzarote Hurdle We actually owned the favourite for this race about 7 years ago, when it used to be over 2m. Our horse ran a stinker on the poor ground. Onto this years renewal, i tend not to look past the top trainers on a saturday these days but will have a look here at all of these. First one that is of interest is Nicholls Black Thunder with Harry Derham claiming 5lb. This weight claim puts the horse in with a chance, and has decent novice form from last season, winning 3 times and finishing 2nd at Sandown behind a decent sort in Tetlami. Is definitely capable off this mark. Carried top weight last 2 outings. Loose Chips has won here on last 2 outings making all round this flat track. Has risen enough in the weights now to possibly hold it back in its hat trick bid Oscara dara ran an excellent 4th to Darlan at Aintree last season and that form is now out in the open, has to stay another 5f but likes flat tracks and again looks capable off this mark I thought Captain Sunshine would be one to follow this season after signing off last season with 2 wins but it hasnt shown much yet so best watched for me The moore stable been in good form lately and Sircozy would stand a chance if returning to form of earlier in 2012 when it won at Plumpton and fontwell. Between Oscara dara and Black thunder.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january 3.35 Warwick - Bradley 13/2 Paddy Power Surely this horse must win this race if he is none the worse for his last run? He has the class to win this, he handles the ground, the form of his two previous Cheltenham runs are really strong and whilst he isn't 100% guarenteed to get the trip, he stayed on well enough over 28f in soft at Cheltenham to suggest he would. I really like Pete The Feat as he has a cracking little horse but this is a big step up and he looked tiredy LTO in a hard race at Newbury over 4f shorter (albeit on heavy). I also like Rigadin De Beauchene but again I dont think he wants this sort of trip. Overall Bradley ticks all the boxes, and as long as the horse is in good health then he should be hard to beat.

[Stevet1859]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january 2:40 Kempton: Uncle Jimmy 1pt win 75/1 Betfair Taking a complete flyer here. Uncle Jimmy lacks any handicap experience is a couple of pounds out of the handicap and is ridden by a jockey who has only won one race. Yet, Uncle Jimmy's form is reasonable and presumably he is well thought of by his trainer who has plenty in his string to make an assessment against. Uncle Jimmy could potentially bit better than this mark. The trip and the going should be fine and if things do fall in to place for Uncle Jimmy he could surprise. 3:15 Kempton: On Trend 1pt win 16/1 William Hill Having supported On Trend at Newbury before Christmas when he fell, he may be worth one more try here. On Trend had looked quite useful at Towcester when beating the useful Mister Hide who won a couple of races in December. There was perhaps an element of confidence building in On Trend's last run. The step up to three miles looks in his favour today and Andrew Thornton who won on him at Towcester is back in the plate. 3:35 Warwich: Pete The Feat 1pt win 4/1 William Hill & Benheir 1pt win 20/1 Betfred * Pete The Feat just keeps rolling and he looked well in command at Newbury last time. And while up in the weights and in class there could still be more to come. The going won't be a problem and he looks likely to stay this extra couple of furlongs. Benheir ran in to Carruthers at Ffos Las last time out. The former Hennessy winner is still very dangerous if he gets away and that second by Benheir may not turn out to be such a bad effort in hindsight. Prior to that that defeat Benheir had won quite nicely at the same track and looked to be on an upward curve. Rebecca Curtis has her string in decent nick and with a going not looking a problem for Benheir a decent run looks likely. * (price taken 8/1/12)

[cpo]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january 2.40 Kempton Black Thunder 2pts win @ 7/1 Skybet Black Thunder looks to have an excellent chance here after an encouraging run last time out. He has had 2 runs so far this season with his first coming over CD where he was to keen early on and faded near the last to finish 3rd. His run at Haydock last time out was much better and he would have won had that race been over todays trip. The extra furlong here will suit and the ground is no problem. Harry Derham takes weight off his back which puts him just 1lb higher than his run last time out. 3.35 Warwick Bradley 1.5pts EW @ 13/2 >paddypower I am willing to forgive Bradley for latest run at Cheltenham where he was a disappointing favourite behind Master Overseer. The ground that day was very testing and he never looked happy on it. He didn't jump well and was hampered quite badly when Crash fell. If you look at his run before that, then he would have a massive chance in this if he can reproduce that effort to finish less than a length into 2nd behind Monbeg Dude. He is lightly raced for a 9 year old but he is clearly a talented stayer and the less testing ground should suit him tomorrow. It looks an open race which is why I have gone each way. Pete the Feat may have not stopped improving yet and he is the rightful favourite for the race. Restless Harry is a horse I backed last time out but he will find this a very different test to the race he won at Newbury. Plenty of talented stayers in this but Bradley looks a solid option to at least make the frame. 3.15 Kempton Kingsmere 2pts win @ 9/1 SkyBet While this horse's jumping is a worry, I don't think we have seen the best him of yet. He was highly progressive last year in novice chases and was still travelling well in front when coming to grief at the 2nd last at Cheltenham on his return to action. He found the Paddy Power Gold Cup too hot last time out but there were plenty of horses in that race that didn't finish. I think he is worth another chance on better ground and on a track that should suit. It's a competitive race and he has plenty of weight to carry but I feel there could be more to come from him this season. The trainer had an impressive winner the other day so his horses might be coming into form. Jake Greenall is 2 from 3 on the horse with the other race coming on his return to action this year where he fell. I see the jockey as a negative as he didn't appear to help the horse at all when he fell 2 runs ago but he clearly gets on well with him so he will have to do! 3.00 Warwick Minella Definitely 1pt win @ 16/1 Ladbrokes The favourites have a good record in this race and both The New One and Dursey Sound have obvious claims but I feel one of the outsiders is worth a small interest. Minella Definitely got the better of Snake Eyes on his debut to pull of a real shock at Kempton but there is every chance there was no fluke about that win. The pair of them pulled well clear of the 3rd in that race and Minella Definitely managed to fight back after being headed to get back up near the line. There is every chance he will be an even better horse now stepped up in trip as he won a point to point over 3miles in April last year. He takes his chance here in much better company but the stable are going very well at the moment.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january 2.05 KEMPTON~CRUCHAIN 7/1 BET365~A very strong e/w bet for me i cant see it out of the first three here. Last years winner with todays jock 8lb less to carry has had a shot break to freshen will take all the beating imo. 2.40 THE LANZAROTE~Wide open imo and plenty of e/w value to be had with a couple of outsiders main one being SECRET EDGE 40/1 PP young horse not seen the best of yet, this term also SON OF FLICKA 40 BET365 is better than shown of late but just a small e/w on that one as the Coral Cup which it won last year is most probably the main aim. Will also has a win on Alan King 1st string ARALDUR 11/1 who won well lto is in fine fettle and looks more to come. 2.25 WARWICK~Again e/w value to be had here i think David Pipes The Package is awfully short but his other one BATTLE GROUP 20/1 is backable e/w off current mark back hurdling this will also suit KNOCK A HAND who didn't take to the bigger fences fair hurdle mark still and has a e/w shot at 14's was bigger. 3.35 WARWICK~RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE 6/1 win bet for me 3 solid run this term a win looks imminent yard in hot form.

[BillyHills]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january

3.00 Warwick: Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (2m5f) The New One looks pretty solid to me here for the Twiston-Davies team of trainer Nigel and son Sam who takes the ride. They think a lot of this horse and expect a big run in March at the Festival, if those dreams are to kept alive he needs to win this well and I think he’s up to the task. Dursey Sound will be popular for the Jonjo/JP and AP combination but for the forecast I like Mickie from the in form henry Daly yard, he looks to have improved for a test of stamina and has more to offer. Selections: 4pts The New One Evens

Ladbrokes 1pt Mickie 9/1 Stan James

Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/warwick-betting-the-new-one-can-land-this-on-the-way-to-the-cheltenham-festival

[BillyHills]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january

2.25 Warwick: Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (3m1f) Very difficult race to weigh up with the warm favourite being The Package who is extremely well handicapped over hurdles compared to his chase mark. Timmy Murphy is back to ride him, which is a good sign and could take this race apart if in the mood. I’m not sure about him at the prices and would rather side with a couple of stayers lower down the handicap. I like Ely Brown from the Charlie Longsdon yard who stays all day and I like the way Okafranca stayed on at Ascot last time and re-opposes De La Bech on slightly better terms. Selections: 1pt EW Ely Brown 14/1

>William Hill 1pt EW Okafranca 14/1 >BetVictor

Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/warwick-betting-longsdon-s-ely-brown-looks-value-in-pertemps-qualifier-at-warwick

[mowgli77]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january Kempton 3.15pm Stoney's Treasure has come back from injury and could be well treated off this mark for Alan King and Choc Thornton while Baile Anrai also has some smart novice form and looks slightly overpriced. Full preview below: http://www.punterslounge.com/kempton-betting-alan-king-could-strike-gold-with-stoney-s-treasure-in-3m-chase Selections: 1pt WIN – Stoneys Treasure 4-1 William Hill (BOG) 1pt WIN – Baile Anrai 10-1 Bet365 (BOG)

[mowgli77]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january Kempton 2.05pm Bally Legend is consistent and is on a fair mark to get its first win today but Cruchain also has a chance off this mark and won the race last year. Full preview below: http://www.punterslounge.com/kempton-betting-consistent-bally-legend-to-finally-get-off-the-mark-over-fences Selection: 2pts WIN – Bally Legend 9-2 Bet365 (BOG) 1pt WIN – Cruchain 7-1 Bet365 (BOG)

[jonshell]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january 2:10 punchestown. FLAXEN FLARE may be able to serve this up to Diakali in good fashion. Sold out of Andrew Baldings yard in October he was schooling really well before his hurdling debut, where he was pulling away towards the end. Expected to be a Triumph hurdle contender he must go forward again tomorrow. Heavy ground should hold no fears for him as he looked to be full of running on his debut. With plenty of improvement to come this horse looks like been a smart sort. Best price 2/1 Boylesport.

[smith17]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january 13.30 Kempton: Buck's Bond, 9/2 Paddy Power, win Buck's Bond won well on debut over hurdles lto over today's distance on similar ground. He jumped well and was 2L clear after the last when he idled but he did enough to win by a head. He should come on a lot for that run and should take this step up in class in his stride. Paul Nicholls is in good form, with 5 winners form 18 runners this month. Ryan Mahon, who takes of three pounds, is also in good form. 15.50 Kempton: Cousin Khee, 7/1 Betfred, win Cousin Khee won a Jumpers Bumper lto on the a/w at ths venue over today's distance. Second place, who was 4L behind the selection, won by 41L nto. CK's last run over hurdles was back in October when he finished third in a similar contest over a furlong further at Aintree. He has been dropped a pound since then and is in good form judged on his last run. Today's ground should suit. Dougie Costello keeps the ride having been on board lto. 14.25 Warwick: Ely Brown, 12/1 Paddy Power, win Ely Brown ran well lto to finish third on ground that was heavier than ideal. Today's ground should be more to his liking. He ran a cracker in this race last year to finish second just a length behind the winner. Trainer Charlie Longsdon has a good record here with a 18% SR for a £30.88 lsp. Jockey Noel Fehily also has a good record here with a 20% SR and a lsp of £8.25. Trainer and jockey have a 20% SR when teaming up. 15.35 Warwick: Restless Harry, 6/1 Paddy Power, win Lto Restless Harry won a class 2 graduation chase. He put in a good round of jumping and won by 11L. He made all and was always a couple of lengths ahead of his rivals until 3 out when he was joined but he ran on impressively after 2 out and quickly put the race to bed. He tries today's distance of 3m 5f for the first time but I think it will suit as he finished some of his races over 3m strongly. He is top class hurdler winning three grade 2's by a combined distance of 33L. Trainer Robin Dickin and jockey Henry Oliver, who has been on board for all but three of RH's runs including all his wins, have a 20% SR together for a lsp of £9.92.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january Four selections today. Possibly shorter write-ups as it's late and I'm going to Barnsley (hooray!) in the morning. 2.05 Kempton - 2pts win Niceonefrankie @ 5/1 (Bet365) Presumably going to be hit with a rule 4 here with the top-weight likely to head to Wetherby, but that horse would be a threat so it's still worth a bet on Venetia Williams' runner here in my eyes. The yard are flying at present and this horse appears to have conditions to suit here. Although he hasn't quite been at his best the last twice, there have been excuses. He fell at the first on his seasonal reappearance at Sandown so it's fair to assume that he'll have needed the run on technically his second start back when running adequately over this c&d. He went well at Musselburgh last time but they didn't go much pace and I think he just got outspeeded there when running a close enough 3rd. He usually runs his best races in the second half of the season and had a fruitful time of the year this time in 2012. He's only 6lbs higher than for an eased-down 3 1/2l win at Newbury last season and this type of race should suit so I think he could prove tough to beat. 2.25 Warwick - 1pt win Holywell @ 6/1 (Bet365) The Package does have an obvious chance but for me is too short in a competitive affair especially at this track as he would prove better on a more testing course. In competition, Jonjo O'Neill's runner looks a rock solid alternative and 6/1 isn't a bad price in my eyes. He's consistent, his form looks solid, and conditions suit. He's never been out of the frame under rules and has finished 2nd the last three times he's encountered the racecourse. His 2nd in May at Uttoxeter may not look anything special really but I thought he showed qualities that will help him here. They went slowly up front and this horse and one other injected some pace just after halfway but eventually he just got outspeeded. I don't think the test was substantial enough and he made a bad error at 2 out which exaggerated the losing margin. He did prove he had the tactical speed for sharp tracks and has subsequently shown he stays well too. He clearly needed further than 2m4f on his staying on seasonal return at Aintree and only found the progressive Trustan Times too good last time out. There were 4 1/2l back to the third in a solid race and the very capable Maurice Linehan negates the 5lb penalty so he's fairly treated and ought to go close again. 2.50 Wetherby - 1pt win Kent Street @ 16/1 (Betfred) I backed Sue Smith's runner over fences last time but he once again failed to deliver in the jumping department. He's now only completed twice from six starts over the larger obstacles and it makes sense to pop him back over hurdles as he does have an engine at a reasonably lowly level. He shaped well at Carlisle in November over an insufficient trip over fences and if you go back to his previous hurdling runs he'd have a shout here. He won on his hurdling debut and then chased home Cinders And Ashes off level weights (miles clear of 3rd). He was outpaced in 4th entered into a handicap on good ground over 2m off a mark of 120 (was a good 0-145 affair) and then stayed on into a 4l 2nd over the same trip in a novice next time out. Hasn't run over hurdles since but looks like 2m4f would be ideal on track evidence and pedigree so fingers crossed he can go well in a more reasonable affair. Jonathan England takes 7lbs off his back and he has a pretty fair record on the horse (4th, 2nd, 5th which came on seasonal return over fences) so I think he's better than a 16/1 shot. 3.50 Kempton - 2pts win Turn Over Sivola @ 13/2 (Hills) You have to respect Forgotten Voice but this will be more testing than small, novice hurdles on good ground and it's plausible if he fails to settle, he will run out of gas late on. Alan King's runner looks a rock solid alternative and I think he's primed to run a cracker here. He was fairly useful in bumpers and his record of 1219 since going over hurdles is strong. The 2nd came to a nice type off the back of a break and the 9th last time was much better than the bare form. He was in 6th going up the hill but faded late on. He seems off a fair mark on his novice exploits and this track should suit. He's a strong-traveller and went as well as most at Cheltenham last time but the combination of the stiff track and heavy ground just found him out. The better ground here and sharper track will play to his strengths - emphasised by the fact he traded at 4, 1.01, 1.62, 2.9 and 2.69 in five of his six career defeats. Will travel around here no problem and should find more when asked than he did last time. The winner made up a large amount of the losing deficit last time as well which exaggerated his performance and I reckon this one will take the beating today.

[Aidymac]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january *Cruchain > Kempton 2:05 > WIN @ 5/1 Betfred BOG* Won this race last year which means connections will nearly certainly be targeting it again this year. I remember putting £20 on it at Cheltenham last year where it won at the PL meet, where it was beggars belief how it won, was going backwards passed by the other horses, then the 3 horses in front of it all fell and it toodled across the line, so maybe me backing this horse is lucky again. That win at Cheltenham came off 125, and runs off 110 today, so is really well handicapped and won this race easily last year off an 8 pound higher mark.

[Lodge]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january 14.40 - Kempton - Captain Sunshine @ 14/1 Stan James I quite like the chances of Oscara Dara in this but i feel the winner may come from abit further down the handicap. Captain Sunshine was a horse that i backed last time out at Cheltenham and he ran creditably despite only finishing 7th. Like my other selection today, Turn Over Sivola, the ground was probably abit soft for Captain Sunshine last time out and the Cheltenham finish found him out, so back on slightly better ground at a less testing course i expect him to show an improvement. From a handicapping perspective he should be on a workable mark, some of his novice form is very good and he is still unexposed. He does obviously have his quirks having refused to race on his previous appearance but he has got a C&D win to his name and at a decent price i feel he will go well.

[mowgli77]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january Wetherby 2.15pm In form McCain/Maguire look to have another progressive type to score with here and it could be well in off this mark, time will tell. Havingotascoobydoo looks the main danger here but tight betting event overall. Race preview below: http://www.punterslounge.com/wetherby-betting-progressive-type-dunowen-point-can-win-for-in-form-donald-mccain-in-yorkshire Selection: 2pts WIN – Dunowen Point 5-2 PaddyPower (BOG)

[Primevil]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january Kempton 2.05pm Midnight Haze 14/1 victor bluesq 365 skybet on first lokk you would say no chance, but i belive he is a cracking each way. A cd winner, who when allowed to have his own way from the front, can jump his rivals into the ground. His last 3 runs, 2 were bottomless ground and if you look closely at the cheltenham run on decent ground, at the 2mile 6 point, he was travelling like a dream, it was just to far. And he dropped away, but those 3 runs have give him a cracking handicap mark here today, last time he was off this mark just over a year ago, he romped in. I really cant see him being out of the frame, against some very ordinary rivals. 5 points each way price taken above.

[bowles10]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january hats off to BH here today 3 races tipped and 3 great winners @ 10/11, 11/2 and 14/1 lots of other winners also, but BH well done

[Stevet1859]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january Echo that .... great stuff BH :clap And well done Smith17 - nice price winner there mate :ok Ted too..... and the others....

[robertob]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january Cracking stuff here - well done all the winners... particularly BH; 3 from 3... that some tipping! :clap

[Tedthewolf]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january Top stuff BH :clap

[Aidymac]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january

Kempton 2.05 – Ballylegend 9/2 Bet365 There is only a couple in this for me, unless something improves unexpectedly! My other main fancy Goring One looks to want further these days so Ballylegend it is. The form of his last two runs have looked solid and they have been run at a decent pace which is a plus. He would have finished closer to the winner here in November but for clouting the final fence & I am hoping he can go one better. His previous run at Taunton looks strong with the winner seemingly very progressive and the final fence faller hacking up back here in a C3 novice event. The forecasted sounder surface will also be a plus.

240 Kempton: William Hill Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Listed) (2m5f) As competitive as ever the Lanzarote Hurdle promises to be a battle between several nice unexposed types from the big yards. Black Thunder, Bears Affair and Oscara Dara all have to be respected and of the three I like the look of Barry Geraghty’s mount Oscara Dara and it wouldn’t surprise me if the money came for this one. Of the others I’d take a chance on Victor Leudorum at the prices, he could be well handicapped and first time out may be the time to catch him. Selections: 2pts Oscara Dara 11/2

Blue Square

1pt EW Victor Leudorum 18/1

Stan James

Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/kempton-betting-oscara-dara-looks-the-best-hope-for-henderson-in-lanzarote-at-kempton

3.00 Warwick: Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (2m5f) The New One looks pretty solid to me here for the Twiston-Davies team of trainer Nigel and son Sam who takes the ride. They think a lot of this horse and expect a big run in March at the Festival, if those dreams are to kept alive he needs to win this well and I think he’s up to the task. Dursey Sound will be popular for the Jonjo/JP and AP combination but for the forecast I like Mickie from the in form henry Daly yard, he looks to have improved for a test of stamina and has more to offer. Selections: 4pts The New One Evens

Ladbrokes 1pt Mickie 9/1 Stan James

Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/warwick-betting-the-new-one-can-land-this-on-the-way-to-the-cheltenham-festival

2.25 Warwick: Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (3m1f) Very difficult race to weigh up with the warm favourite being The Package who is extremely well handicapped over hurdles compared to his chase mark. Timmy Murphy is back to ride him, which is a good sign and could take this race apart if in the mood. I’m not sure about him at the prices and would rather side with a couple of stayers lower down the handicap. I like Ely Brown from the Charlie Longsdon yard who stays all day and I like the way Okafranca stayed on at Ascot last time and re-opposes De La Bech on slightly better terms. Selections: 1pt EW Ely Brown 14/1

>William Hill 1pt EW Okafranca 14/1 >BetVictor

Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/warwick-betting-longsdon-s-ely-brown-looks-value-in-pertemps-qualifier-at-warwick

Kempton 2.05pm Bally Legend is consistent and is on a fair mark to get its first win today but Cruchain also has a chance off this mark and won the race last year. Full preview below: http://www.punterslounge.com/kempton-betting-consistent-bally-legend-to-finally-get-off-the-mark-over-fences Selection: 2pts WIN – Bally Legend 9-2 Bet365 (BOG) 1pt WIN – Cruchain 7-1 Bet365 (BOG)

13.30 Kempton: Buck's Bond' date= 9/2 Paddy Power, win Buck's Bond won well on debut over hurdles lto over today's distance on similar ground. He jumped well and was 2L clear after the last when he idled but he did enough to win by a head. He should come on a lot for that run and should take this step up in class in his stride. Paul Nicholls is in good form, with 5 winners form 18 runners this month. Ryan Mahon, who takes of three pounds, is also in good form. 15.50 Kempton: Cousin Khee, 7/1 Betfred, win Cousin Khee won a Jumpers Bumper lto on the a/w at ths venue over today's distance. Second place, who was 4L behind the selection, won by 41L nto. CK's last run over hurdles was back in October when he finished third in a similar contest over a furlong further at Aintree. He has been dropped a pound since then and is in good form judged on his last run. Today's ground should suit. Dougie Costello keeps the ride having been on board lto. 14.25 Warwick: Ely Brown, 12/1 Paddy Power, win Ely Brown ran well lto to finish third on ground that was heavier than ideal. Today's ground should be more to his liking. He ran a cracker in this race last year to finish second just a length behind the winner. Trainer Charlie Longsdon has a good record here with a 18% SR for a £30.88 lsp. Jockey Noel Fehily also has a good record here with a 20% SR and a lsp of £8.25. Trainer and jockey have a 20% SR when teaming up. 15.35 Warwick: Restless Harry, 6/1 Paddy Power, win Lto Restless Harry won a class 2 graduation chase. He put in a good round of jumping and won by 11L. He made all and was always a couple of lengths ahead of his rivals until 3 out when he was joined but he ran on impressively after 2 out and quickly put the race to bed. He tries today's distance of 3m 5f for the first time but I think it will suit as he finished some of his races over 3m strongly. He is top class hurdler winning three grade 2's by a combined distance of 33L. Trainer Robin Dickin and jockey Henry Oliver, who has been on board for all but three of RH's runs including all his wins, have a 20% SR together for a lsp of £9.92.

Wetherby 2.15pm In form McCain/Maguire look to have another progressive type to score with here and it could be well in off this mark, time will tell. Havingotascoobydoo looks the main danger here but tight betting event overall. Race preview below: http://www.punterslounge.com/wetherby-betting-progressive-type-dunowen-point-can-win-for-in-form-donald-mccain-in-yorkshire Selection: 2pts WIN – Dunowen Point 5-2 PaddyPower (BOG)

Unreal stuff folks, especially from BH and Mowgli in particular, well done all winners. :notworthy

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: jump racing saturday 12th january Well done guys - especially BH - superb :ok