Peacock's Punting 2013

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013

Fully deserved Peacock. Really enjoyable read. Fair play and thanks for sharing :ok

Thanks mate, was in a poor run of form. Good performance from LEXINGTON BAY and a good, driving ride from Tony Hamilton.

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Wed 27th Mar 2013 2.50 Wetherby (8 runners) Permit Trainers Association Handicap Chase Class 4, 2m4½f , Soft, 5yo+, Win: £3769 1) EYRE APPARENT (117) - Won LTO ridden by McCoy again. Up 7lbs for that but must surely go close again. 2) PAPA CARUSO (114) - Not won on heavy or soft and last win came off 11lb lighter. 3) FLYING SQUAD (110) - Won a Cl5 at Ayr LTO, back up in weights now and 10lbs higher. Chance. 4) GLOBAL FLYER (109) - Pulled Up last twice and plumetted down the weights. Well below last winning mark but recent form a big worry. 5) SCOTCH WARRIOR (108) - Off course for nearly two years. Three wins on much better ground at Perth and best watched on return. 6) BLAZING BULL (96) - Win at Catterick LTO in a handicap novices chase. Down in trip. 7) DOBERDAN (87) - Won just the once over obstacles and now fallen to just 2lb shy of that mark again. This much tougher than previous outings though. 8) DOMOLY (83) - Struggled at this level in the past (0/7) and only win came in 2011 off 6lbs lighter. ========================= Not many make huge appeal but one who is proven at this level is EYRE APPARENT. He has to contend with a career high mark here but won nicely LTO and McCoy takes the ride again. EYRE APPARENT 2pt WIN @ 10/3 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Wed 27th Mar 2013 3.55 Wetherby (6 runners) Watch Racing UK On Channel 432 Handicap Hurdle Class 4, 2m4f , Soft, 4yo+, Win: £3119 1) BOW BADGER (120) - Won well on penultimate start at Mussleburgh in November 2011. Disappointing after long lay off latest when 7/8 at Carlisle. Likley to want ground a bit better. 2) MAJAALES (120) - Not been seen for 900 days and best watched. 3) ROCKING BLUES (115) - Just 5 outings to his name. Won a bumper on debut and makes handicap debut today. 4) TURBO DU RANCH (113) - Won bumper on debut on good, done OK since but cant back with any confidence at the price. 5) GREEN WIZARD (110) - Pulled up latest when trip was seemingly too far. 3L 4th here on boxing day over 2m6f and shaped then as though this trip would suit. 6) I KNOW THE CODE (101) - Won on penultiate start in similar conditions beating rival who but very disappointing LTO. Chance if that form forgiven, back on soft ground. ======================= A chance is taken on the two outsiders in the field here. Both have something to prove, but at the price(s), and with questions marks over the market principles (in my eyes), I'm prepared to find out. GREEN WIZARD 1pt WIN @ 15/2 (BOG) I KNOW THE CODE 1pt WIN @ 10/1 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Ugh, rubbish afternoon. Green Wizard beaten into second. May have a pop at the Cl4 at Wolves tonight ...

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Wed 27th Mar 2013 7.50 Wolverhampton (5 runners) 32Red Handicap Class 4, 1m4f , Standard, 4yo+, Win: £4690 1) ALL THE WINDS (81) - Won similar event here LTO by 3L last week. Extra 6lb today. Can go close again. 2) ILLUSTRIOUS FOREST (79) - Finished 2nd, 3 out of last four times here, including ALL THE WINDS latest. All four wins have been over C&D but probably needs a bit more. 3) KNIGHTLY ESCAPADE (76) - Off course since October and best watched back on the polytrack. 4) ARIZONA JOHN (74) - Another who has been off course for a while, last seen finishing way back in 1m4f event at York in September. Yet to make the frame in 5 AW starts. 5) BLAZING DESERT (71) - Won over C&D here latest and up 2lbs. 4sec slower than ALL THE WIND's C&D victory and probably needs more. ===================== ALL THE WINDS looks a very good bet here this evening. Won very well LTO in front of ILLUSTRIOUS FOREST and although up in the weights, looks to be open to further progression with the tongue tie applies. ALL THE WINDS 4pt WIN @ 2/1 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 ALL THE WINDS messed that up in the stalls. Ugh. Awful day. :(

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Thu 28th Mar 2013 4.10 Ludlow (9 runners) Bromfield Sand & Gravel Handicap Chase (For The Oakly Park Challenge Cup) Class 3, 2m4f , Soft, 5yo+, Win: £9495 1) BUCK MULLIGAN (132) - Pulled up LTO attempting 3 miles but had won at today's trip before that off 5lb lower. Goes well here but needs career best effort to win from this mark. 2) URGENCE DESTRUVAL (132) - In the frame last two starts, back up to 2m4f, but probably needs more. 3) NICEONEFRANKIE (130) - 6lb higher than last winning mark, very consistent but has more often that not finds one or two too good. 4) THE CHAZER (128) - 8lbs higher than last (and highest) winning mark and usually struggles to compete when this high. 13L behind Cootehill latest. 5) MERRION SQUARE (127) - Lightly raced 7 year old who has won 3 of 6 starts (at 2m and 3m). 6) COOTEHILL (124) - Dropping in the weights to but been well beaten in all starts since winning over C&D last April off 133. 7) HENRY HOOK (122) - Finished 2nd last twice in chases at 3m, probably needed run latest, yet to win over fences but this trip may just suit. This mark is a worry and is 0/6 at this grade, but could make a bold bid again. 8) BALLYWHAT (118) - Yet to win in 9 NH starts, been turned over as favourite 3 times. Consistent but likely to be up against it against some of these. 9) MON CHEVALIER (113) - Not won past 2m and looks up against it today without a claimer on board. ================================ Not the most ambitious of bets but finding it hard to see past MERRION SQUARE in this one. The Paul Nicholls trained bay is unexposed and comes off the back of a good win at Sandown. MERRION SQUARE 3pt WIN @ 5/2 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 In piss poor form at the moment. With no racing tomorrow it seems a good day to update the stats.... [TABLE=width: 247]

[TR] [TD]Bets[/TD] [TD]122[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Winners (Win & E/W)[/TD] [TD]24[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Placed (E/W only)[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Total Staked (pts)[/TD] [TD]257[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Overall P/L (pts)[/TD] [TD]+9.76[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Strike Rate[/TD] [TD]19.7%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Yield[/TD] [TD]3.8%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Mar-13[/TD] [TD]-4.65[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Feb-13[/TD] [TD]+19.26[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Jan-13[/TD] [TD]-4.85[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Well, had a look at the Spring Mile tomorrow. Not confident on recent form, but we'll see.... Sat 30th Mar 2013 1.55 Doncaster (20 runners) William Hill Spring Mile (Handicap) (Str) Class 2, 1m , Soft, 4yo+, Win: £28012 1) GARDE COTIERE (90) - Only seen once since winning a novices event in October 2010 on the all weather at Lingfield. Last of 12 at Newmarket in a Cl3 in 2012 and can't have any faith in despite switch to Fahey's yard. 2) GAUL WOOD (89) - Winning form over 1m at Sandown on penultimate start. Has gone well off a smilar break and respectable third at Ascot latest in similar conditions and could go well today. 3) MYBOYALFIE (89) - Loves conditions but could be out of depth in this company. 4) LAS VERGLAS STAR (89) - On very attractive mark with jockey's claim if recapturing form that saw him claim Cl2 event at Pontefract last September, struggled since though. 5) EDUCATE (86) - Won at York LTO and now on hattrick. Verstatile ground wise but this toughest test yet. 6) NAMEITWHATYOULIKE (88) - Another hattrick seeking animal. Has won over C&D off 10lbs lower but then struggled off revised mark. More than likely to do so again. 7) FROG HOLLOW (88) - Not quite lived up to early career promise when winning twice at Salisbury. Surpised if pops up today. 8) DUBAI HILLS (87) - Southwell specialist and just 2/28 on the turf with stats of 7300909 when attempting this level of race. 9) KING OF EDEN (86) - Badly beaten in last few starts at big odds. Never won on anything softer than Good. Upped 1f in trip but this seems no easier. 10) OCEAN TEMPEST (85) - Won at 33/1 LTO when getting nose in front at Newmarket over 1m on heavy. Done all winning when fitter though but that form good in this company and plenty of subsequent winners have come out of the race. 11) YOJIMBO (85) - Won over C&D LTO in October but needs to improve a lot to take this from this mark. 12) SATANIC BEAT (84) - Good record on soft (31) and hasn't been disgraced in this company before. Has gone OK off this sort of break and could make the frame. 13) DOCOFTHEBAY (84) - Experienced campainger but ground looks far from perfect for him. Well beaten on last three attempts on turf on not won in 19 on the grass. 14) HAAF A SIXPENCE (83) - Open to improvement with only 7 outings to his name. Unseated on only turf start though and a lot needs to be taken on trust. 15) EXTRATERRESTRIAL (82) - Not won in 21, on winnable mark on old form but looks on downward curve and impossible to back. 16) BARREN BROOK (80) - 0/10 over 1m and 0/8 on anything worse than Good. All winning form been with much shorter between races and passed over. 17) MR SPIGGOTT (80) - Probably needs more in this company and usually needs the run. 18) BOOTS AND SPURS (79) - Struggled with revised mark since winning Cl5 event on heavy at Carlisle. More needed here. 19) PATRIOTIC (74) - Done most of winning on the All Weather but has won over C&D last year. Major improvement needed. 20) DAY OF THE EAGLE (71) - 09 on soft and failed to live up early career promise when racking up a strong hat trick. =============== In the last 16 runnings of this, the winner has been either 4, 5, or 6, infact the 12/16 have been 4yos and of the 68 runners aged 7+, only 6 have managed to make the frame. Eliminating these. No horse has won carrying more than 9-9, so GARDE COTIERER goes and 0 from 71 have won with 15 days or less since their last race which scrubs off DAY OF THE EAGLE. This leaves 14. Of the remainder, I like the chances of GAUL WOOD, SATANIC BEAT and OCEAN TEMPEST, all of whom I will take E/W against the field. GAUL WOOD 1pt E/W @ 8/1 (BOG) SATANIC BEAT 1pt E/W @ 33/1 (BOG) OCEAN TEMPEST 1pt E/W @ 16/1 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 This is my first 'proper' go at cracking the Lincoln. What a pissing minefield! Sat 30th Mar 2013 3.05 Doncaster (22 runners) William Hill Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) (Str) Class 2, 1m , Soft, 4yo+, Win: £62250 1) MAJESTIC MYLES (107) - This is first run over 1m. Won well at Chester in July on soft but disappointing since. Could bounce back now dropped in class though and jockey takes off 7lbs to put him on a very handy mark. 2) PRINCE OF JOHANNE (102) - Struggled off this mark recently and nothing to suggest recent soft ground will rejuvinate him. 3) CHAPTER SEVEN (98) - Loves soft ground - 2 from 2 including one at C&D. Needs career best to win here, not totally out of the question. 4) MEMORY CLOTH (97) - Been well beaten in all 4 starts since winning at Newcastle in June. Doesn't go particularly well fresh and passed over. 5) STRICTLY SILVER (97) - Won the trial race at Wolverhampton LTO in front of GLOBAL VILLAGE AND CAPAILL LIATH, MEMORY CLOTH was last. Not encountered soft ground yet but has form (albeit no wins) at 1m. Chance. 6) HIT THE JACKPOT (96) - UK debut and best watched. 7) BRAE HILL (95) - Good record in this race but nothing in recent form suggests he is capable of taking this. Saying that, nothing in his form before he won this last year did either. Is 0/18 on anything worse than Good and can't be backed. 8) LAHAAG (95) - Only raced 4 times and made very promising start to career. 2nd LTO at York behind CHAPTER SEVEN (has slight edge in weights now) but seemingly open to bags of improvement. 9) GLOBAL VILLAGE (94) - 6lb higher than last winning mark and has looked held. 10) JUSTONEFORTHEROAD (94) - Ground and trip OK, won from similar breaks and well handicapped on best form. 11) CAPTAIN BERTIE (94) - Struggling to see where his price from. 9lb higher than last winning mark and others make more appeal at more attractive prices. 12) ESHTIBAAK (93) - Just 5 runs to his name, now dropped to 1m. Goes well fresh but question marks over conditions. 13) SWIFTLY DONE (93) - Hasn't been disgraced since winning two on the trot in June over 1m off 85 and 90. Jockey takes 7lbs off today so mark is promising. Good E/W claims. 14) MUFFIN MCLEAY (92) - Finished last last twice in Cl3 events and looks tp have it all to do to trouble this lot. 15) CAPAILL LIATH (92) - More needed from this mark and 0/11 at this grade. 16) GLADYS GAL (92) - Not been seen since July 2011. Looked to be shaping nicely back then but impossible to back. 17) ANDERIEGO (92) - Ground, mark and lay off all a concern. No bet. 18) CHOSEN CHARACTER (92) - Had a very good back end of 2012, winning 5 from 9 and improving 21lbs. Could be more to come, but usually needs a run. 19) JACKS REVENGE (91) - 2nd round here LTO, career high mark to contend with now but goes very well after this sort of break and can't discount. 20) BANCNUANAHEIREANN (91) - Won on debut in Ireland, made frame once since. Looks to be in grip of handicapper. 21) LEVITATE (90) - Has won over C&D but this tough test 22) DUBAI DYNAMO (90) - 2lb hgher than last winning mark but is 0/13 on anything worse then GS. ===================== Right, well, there's obvioulsy a few here with chances but my shortlist is made up of: MAJESTIC MYLES, STRICTLY SILVER, LAHAAG, JUSTONEFORTHEROAD, SWIFTLY DONE and JACKS REVENGE. Really tough, for one reason or another, to split these, was going to just bet one ach but need to trim a but more. 15/16 have been aged 4-6, this discounts JUSTONEFORTHEROAD. Also, last 16 winners have either been fit with a last run coming between 8-15 days ago, or are comign back from a break of 121 days to 365 days, this omits STRICTLY SILVER. This leaves four, and I'm really struggling now, so these will do. MAJESTIC MYLES 0.75pt E/W @ 40/1 (BOG) LAHAAG 1.5pt WIN @ 8/1 (BOG) SWIFTLY DONE 1pt E/W @ 20/1 (BOG) JACKS REVENEGE 1pt E/W @ 14/1 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 What an awful day! Will update now ...

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Rubbish! Think February's good return was obvioulsy more luck than judgement! :lol [TABLE=width: 247]

[TR] [TD]Bets[/TD] [TD]129[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Winners (Win & E/W)[/TD] [TD]24[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Placed (E/W only)[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Total Staked (pts)[/TD] [TD]270[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Overall P/L (pts)[/TD] [TD]-3.24[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Strike Rate[/TD] [TD]18.6%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Yield[/TD] [TD]-1.2%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Mar-13[/TD] [TD]-17.65[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Feb-13[/TD] [TD]+19.26[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Jan-13[/TD] [TD]-4.85[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] There's always tomorrow to try to reclaim some profit for this month!

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Back to the coal face ... Sun 31st Mar 2013 3.50 Musselburgh (12 runners) totepool.com Musselburgh Gold Cup (Handicap) Class 3, 1m6f , Good To Soft, 4yo+, Win: £16172 1) THE BULL HAYES (87) - 8L 2nd behind progressive Model Pupil LTO on flat return. Dropped to a Cl3 for first time and on a very winnable mark. Chance. 2) NANTON (86) - Done all winning on better ground and seemingly doesn't like going right handed. Usually needs a run and is discounted. 3) PORGY (85) - Consistent type but questions marks over ground and ability in this company. 4) SOLARAS EXHIBITION (84) - Looks high enough in the weights but good second LTO. 5) ROYAL PECULIAR (82) - Lightly raced but both wins have come on the AW at Lingfield. Watching brief only. 6) LOS NADIS (82) - Spent the winter jumping with just one 2nd to his name. All wins have been at 2m+ and enough questions marks to not have a bet on. 7) MICA MIKA (82) - Has won at various distances in short career. 1lb higher than best winning mark and needs a bit more to figure. 8) ANGEL GABRIAL (86) - Upped to 1m6f for first time, Won a Cl2 last August. Wouldn;t be surprised to see him pop up but can't back. 9) GETABUZZ (81) - Consistent but usually needs a run and struggled in this company in the past. 10) MOIDORE (85) - Hurdled over the winter but not seen for 116 days and usually needs to be fitter. 11) LADY KASHAAN (85) - Ground and trip ideal. Lay off is a bit of a worry but can go well with, like other 4yos, gets a handy 4lb WFA. 12) COSMIC SUN (77) - Well beaten in all starts in 2012. On good mark but impossible to back. ================================ A wide open and competitive affair but think top weight THE BULL HAYES has got a good each way chance at a decent price and has plenty going for him. LADY KASHAAN though should be in with a great chance back up to 1m6f. LADY KASHAAN 2pt WIN @ 5/1 (BOG) THE BULL HAYES 1pt E/W @ 11/1 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Sun 31st Mar 2013 4.00 Plumpton (11 runners) totepool.com Sussex Champion Hurdle (Handicap) Class 2, 2m , Good To Soft, 4yo+, Win: £16245 1) BALDER SUCCESS (149) - Third behind Zarkander in Ferbuary before unseating today's jock in the Champion hurdle. Has form in todays conditions and must have a big chance. 2) RONALDO DES MOTTES (140) - Didn't get involved in the County Hurdle LTO and pulled up in Betfair Hurdle before that. This much more his level but could still find one too good considering all wins have come on right handed courses. 3) HI NOTE (134) - Last two runs have been on the AW. 2nd on penultimate start over hurdles behind Dodging Bullets. 2lb lower than that today but a lot to do. 4) ACT OF KALANISI (133) - On lowest mark since 2011, last win came over 2m in a novice event at Leicester and not without a chance. 5) CONSTANT CONTACT (132) - 2nd at Mussleburgh in same conditions/trip on penultimate start. Respectable 6th in Martin Pipe latest but 0/11 in this sort of company. Respected, however. 6) COURT MINSTREL (131) - Won couple of bumpers before going to score in a maiden hurdle at Cheltenham. Done well in novice hurdles since and could be better than this. 7) HOME RUN (126) - Consistent improver who seems a bit of a mudlark - not sure there will be enough juice in the ground. Probably a touch too high in the weights. 8) RED INCA (126) - Good winner LTO at Haydock over 2m on GS. This tougher but jockey claim means effectively on same mark. E/W Chance. 9) DARKESTBEFOREDAWN (125) - Beaten LTO on handicap debut, need to ignore that to make case. Others preferred. 10) SPECIALAGENT ALFIE (124) - Up 7lbs for 1L 2nd LTO a Warwick where he beat Red Inca home. Could be more to come but best watched at this mark. 11) STONE LIGHT (123) - Can only watch on UK debut. Beaten 69L by Quevega at Cheltenham. =============== COURT MINSTREL should take all the beating here and has a great chance. ACT OF KALANISI could outrun his odds. COURT MINSTREL 4pt WIN @ 13/8 (BOG) ACT OF KALANISI 1pt E/W @ 20/1 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 :lol it's a funny game isn't it. After a disgusting day yesterday which saw me lose 13 points, today hase been marvellous (can't understate the importance of BOG in this thread) and I'm +23 points on the day to end the month 5.35 in profit. [TABLE=width: 247]

[TR] [TD]Bets[/TD] [TD]133 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Winners (Win & E/W)[/TD] [TD]26[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Placed (E/W only)[/TD] [TD]14[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Total Staked (pts)[/TD] [TD]280[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Overall P/L (pts) [/TD] [TD]+19.76[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Strike Rate[/TD] [TD]19.5% [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Yield[/TD] [TD]7.1%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Mar-13 [/TD] [TD]+5.35[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Feb-13[/TD] [TD]+19.26 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Jan-13[/TD] [TD]-4.85[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Mon 1st Apr 2013 4.05 Plumpton (8 runners) More Football Than Ever At totepool.com Handicap Chase Class 3, 2m1f , Good To Soft, 5yo+, Win: £9747 1) TAKEROC (129) - Arguably wants the ground a bit firmer, on winnable mark and decent 3rd LTO, but probably needs more. 2) LATERLY (127) - Back down to a Cl3 after a resonable third LTO at Doncaster in a Cl2. Fell on penultimate start but but won similar event Leicester very nicely before that. Chance, but weight is a wee worry. 3) NOBUNAGA (126) - Somewhat disappointing since winning a chase at Cartmel in July. Snazzy silks though. ;) 4) MISTER MATT (125) - Improved 19lbs in 2012 and mark now looks tough on this surface. Goes well fresh, though. 5) CADOUDALAS (122) - Not won since 2011 but now 9lbs lower than that mark. Cant get too excited about. 6) LORD SINGER (118) - On 18 race losing streak but been 2nd six times in that run. Not getting much help from handicapper though. 8) LUCYS LEGEND (112) - This looks tough from this mark and in this company. 9) COOLBEG (109) - Been close last twice, upped 2lb for latest. ========================= None of these jump off the page but preference is for LATERLY who with the jockey's claim is on a really handy mark and looks to have the best chance from these if dealing with the weight. LATERLY 1pt WIN @ 4/1 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Mon 1st Apr 2013 3.45 Fakenham (6 runners) David Keith Memorial Handicap Chase Class 4, 2m5½f , Good, 5yo+, Win: £5848 1) THATS THE DEAL (107) - Up 5lbs for 3m win LTO round here, now dropped in class. Winner that day has won since. Has won over C&D off 2lb less, needs career best effort to land this but should be capable. 2) FABULOUS FRED (105) - Won once in 15 outings and disappointing of late. 3) MISS KALIFA (99) - Probably needs more help from the handicapper and beaten long way on all chase starts. 5) FAREWELLATMIDNIGHT (96) - Jockey's claim puts her to within a 1lb of last winning mark, but this tougher and previous wins have been with less of a break. 6) XENOPHON (90) - Both NH wins cam over hurdles in 2011. Generally struggled since. 2/5 at 33/1 LTO in handicap novice event though. 7) HIMAYNA (84) - 0/30 and nothing to suggest she'll get head in front here. ================== Impossible to see past THATS THE DEAL in this one with the John Cornwall trained 9yo up against many out of form rivals. A winner LTO in a better race, is 211 here and although a win off today's will be a career best, looks to have a sterling chance. THATS THE DEAL 4pt WIN @ 6/4 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Wed 3rd Apr 2013 4.10 Wetherby (9 runners) Wetherby Racecourse & Conference Centre Handicap Chase Class 4, 2m6½f , Good To Soft, 5yo+, Win: £3769 1) GALWAY JACK (119) - Front runner who won LTO on heavy at Uttoxeter. Form of penultiate start has worked out reasonably well too. Upped 8lbs for that. 2) THE PANAMA KID (117) - Well beaten in all starts last year and no better this. Dropped down to a Cl4 event for first time since 2011 when winning at Perth. Back near to that sort of mark but badly out of form. 3) ALLANARD (115) - Ground and trip fine, but 6lb higher than last winning mark. Excels in smaller fields but only Course winner in race when beating GALWAY JACK into 2nd in June. 4) ALPHA ONE (114) - Plum last LTO and not completed before two starts before. Struggled from this mark in the past. 5) VOLCAN SURPRISE (113) - Yet to win in 8 NH starts. Finished 2nd 4 times. This 3f further than anything attempted. Best watched. 6) HOLLINS (104) - Not won over obstacles since 2009. This shorter than anything attempted this year but has won at 2m5f on the flat. 7) OIL BURNER (103) - Won a handicap novices event LTO at Carlisle. Up 7lbs for that and chance if open to improvement. 8) MY MATE VIC (102) - Impossible to fancy having only completed 3 out of 4 starts under rules. 9) KNIGHT WOODSMAN (98) - All 3 wins have been at 3m and probably wants the ground a bit firmer. ============================= In a race where not many are in form, GALWAY JACK and OIL BURNER make most appeal. Preference however is for GALWAY JACK who won nicely LTO and who I'm hoping is capable of dealing with the 8lb rise with front running tactics. I'm also having a small E/W bet on THE PANAMA KID who is niggling away at me dropped to Cl4 for the first time since 2011 where he won off a stone heavier. GALWAY JACK 2pt WIN @ 9/4 (BOG) THE PANAMA KID 0.5pt E/W @ 9/1 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Thu 4th Apr 2013 4.15 Aintree (18 runners) matalan.co.uk Red Rum Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Grade 3, 2m , Good, 5yo+, Win: £45560 1) KID CASSIDY (150) - Very good second at Cheltenham LTO in the Grand Annual. Up 7lbs for that but looks capable of dealing with it. Chance. 2) OISEAI DE NUIT (149) - 10L 3rd behind KID CASSIDY LTO at Cheltenham. 1lb lower than last winning mark but hard to be overly confident about. 3) TANKSFORTHAT (147) - Pulled in in the Grand Annual and winning something at this sort of level will be tough for him. P02PP at anything Listed or better and looks high enough in the weights. 4) TOUBAB (145) - 13L behind Sprinter Sacre over C&D last April, won well LTO at Doncaster and entitled to run race again, this toughher but could be open to improvement. 5) ASTRACAD (143) - 2nd in this last year but not been seen since December, has won from similar layoffs but generally struggled in these better races. 6) STAGECOACH PEARL (142) - Trip and conditions fine but more needed. 7) REBEL REBELLION (140) - Won very nicely LTO at Sandown, this handicap debut and could go very well, but can't back at the price. 8) WEST WITH THE WIND (140) - Last seen at start of Decemeber when beaten 134 lengths at Newbury. Impossible to fancy and passed over. 9) VIVA COLONIA (140) - Pulled up in the Grand Annual but won two novice events before that. Arguably needs further. 10) PIRES (139) - Made frame in 8 of last 9 starts, winning 3. This UK debut though and can only watch from a bwtting point of view. 11) ANQUETTA (136) - 9th in the Grand Annual but has struggled off this sort of mark in the past. 12) KINGS GREY (135) - Super considtent type now at career high mark. All wins have been in small fields though and this toughest assignment to date. 13) ECHO BOB (135) - Done all racing in Ireland bar trip here last year to finish third, off the same mark today but others preferred. 14) SILVER ROQUE (133) - Another consistent sort who won LTO at Newbury. Into uchartered terrotity class and weight wise and all best form has been in smaller fields. 15) DONNAS PALM (133) - Off course for 130 days but goes very well fresh. Could be well handicapped if new trainer has got him fired up for UK debut. 16) NOZIC (128) - U0U round here in 3 attempts. Looks too high in weights and struggles in big fields. 17) CICERON (127) - 005f0500 when upped to this level and looks to have it all to do to figure. 18) KIE (127) - Finished 2nd last three times, open to improvement on handicap debut but hard to see him figuring. ================================ Many of these contested the Grand Annual at Cheltenham and it's difficult to know what (if anything!) that took out of them, so KID CASSIDY is left alone and preference is therefore for the Paul Nicholl's trained TOUBAB, who has excelled on this sort of ground - he struggled on heavy twice inbetween two decent effort round here last year and winning at Donny LTO, both on Good. On highest mark so far but at 7 years old could be still improving and could take this. At bigger odds DONNAS PALM is interesting making UK debut for new trainer. She goes very well fresh (11133) and relishes big fields, must have an E/W chance at a decent price if able to recapture a portion of old form which saw him 2nd in a Irish champion hurdle. TOUBAB 1.5pts E/W @ 11/1 (BOG) DONNAS PALM 1pt E/W @ 25/1 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Just had a pop at the Grand National. Not going to write up each one as looked at trends and other factors. Sat 6th Apr 2013 4.15 Aintree (40 runners) John Smith's Grand National Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) Grade 3, 4m3½f, Good To Soft, 7yo+, Win: £547268 My four against the field are: BIG FELLA THANKS 0.5pt E/W @ 40/1 BALLABRIGGS 0.5pt E/W 16/1 FORPADYDEPLASTERER 0.5 E/W 66/1 TEAFORTHREE 1pt E/W @ 14/1 All the above are BOG and all are with Bet Victor who are playing 6 places.

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Back from weekend away so a bit of an update .... [TABLE=width: 247]

[TR] [TD]Bets[/TD] [TD]143[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Winners (Win & E/W)[/TD] [TD]27[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Placed (E/W only)[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Total Staked (pts)[/TD] [TD]298[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Overall P/L (pts)[/TD] [TD]+12.76[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Strike Rate[/TD] [TD]18.9%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Yield[/TD] [TD]4.3%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Apr-13[/TD] [TD]-7.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Mar-13[/TD] [TD]+5.35[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Feb-13[/TD] [TD]+19.26[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Jan-13[/TD] [TD]-4.85[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Been dead busy of late and hardly had a minute to myself, but, managed to look at one race for tomorrow ... Thu 11th Apr 2013 4.20 Fontwell (9 runners) Weatherbys Hamilton Insurance Handicap Chase Class 3, 2m6f , Good To Soft, 5yo+, Win: £6330 1) FRUITY OROONEY (137) - Looks to have a lot going for him dropping down in grade. Second LTO in a pretty hot race and has big chance. 2) AS DE FER (135) - All three wins have been with today's jockey on board, however seems to have gone off the boil, well beaten on only start of 2012 and fared no better in only appearance this year. 3) MIDNIGHT SAIL (134) - Been extremely consistent of late with a string of seconds to his name. Out of depth latest but chance on Kempton win penultimate. Needs to do it from career high mark, though. 4) NICEONEFRANKIE (130) - 6lbs higher than last winning mark and 1/12 at this grade. 5) AMAURY DE LUSIGNAN (130) - Not seen since November, usually needs a run and all 3 wins have been at 2m/2m1f. 6) MORTIMERS CROSS (123) - Good record round here and last attempt at this trip saw him win over C&D (been campaigned at much further, since). Is 11lb higher today though but E/W chance. 7) FINE PARCHMENT (122) - Handicap mark slipping but looks out of form. 8) REQUIN (118) - Another struggling for form and doubts over stamina. 6lb lower than last winning mark, though. 9) VENETIAN LAD (108) - Bit of a course specialist but looks out of depth here. ================ FRUITY OROONEY looks to have a solid chance here. Has been running very well of late and 2nd at Ascot on Sunday in a Cl2 event is the best form in the race. Runs off the same mark in sligtly easier contest today and must have a chance. Won when last attempting fences at this level and finished 2nd at Cheltenham in January in front of some very smart types off 2lb higher. The one to beat. MORTIMERS CROSS who has a great record here is worth a small E/W punt. FRUITY OROONEY 3pt WIN @ 2/1 (BOG) MORTIMERS CROSS 0.5pt E/W @ 16/1 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Sat 13th Apr 2013 2.55 Doncaster (15 runners) bet365.com Handicap Class 3, 1m4f , Good, 4yo+, Win: £7763 1) FRANCISCAN (90) - 3lb higher than last winning mark, 4/5 wins been on GF but can go well dresh. Others preffered after finishing last season poorly. 2) ROCK A DOODLE DO (87) - 1/18 on turf, that was off 2lb higher. Usually needs a run and form last terk on turf not inspiring. 3) BOWDLERS MAGIC (87) - Won twice at end of last season over 2m. Looks high enough in weights and needs to be fitter. 4) NORTHSIDE PRINCE (86) - All 3 wins have been at 1m2f and at a lower grade. 5) FENNELL BAY (86) - Just 1lb higher than last success when winning a Cl2 at Ascot. Struggled with revised mark and AW appearances may not have suited. E/W chance. 6) BEYOND CONCEIT (85) - Lightly raced 4yo. not much form to go off, best watched at the price. 7) INGLEBY SPIRIT (83) - Spent the winter hurdling without much success. Flat wins have been at 1m2f but at nice mark with jockey's claim. 8) EAGLE ROCK (82) - Beaten in both hurdle starts pver winer, now dropped back to 1m4f for first time since June and not sure will suit. 9) ROYAL PECULIAR (81) - 6/10 on Thursday at Kempton. Yet to win on turf but mark slipping. 10) WYBORNE (81) - Won a maiden over the trip on UK debut. Disappointing in Cl2 event latest but 4lb lower than that and this a little easier. Open to improvement 11) MAN OF PLENTY (81) - Won maiden at Wnidsor on third start over 1m2f. This toughest assigment to date but not without chance. 12) ROCKTHERUNWAY (81) - Last on reapperance at Gosforth Park LTO, looks just about held on this mark. 13) THE LOCK MASTER (77) - Somewhat disappointing since winning a 1m event at Southwell in February. Now upped to 1m4f but has only won 1/20 at 1m3f+. 14) MERCHANT OF DUBAI (73) - 16lbs lower than last win 3 years ago but looked out of form all last season. 15) FLASHMAN (76) - Both wins have been at 1m6f andis 10lb higher than the last of those. ==================================== A tricky race to try to figure out but WYBORNE is worth an E/W to my mind. Made the frame in 3/4 starts in France, won maiden over todays trip at Wolverhampton but then 5L 6/7 on handicap debut. This is a touch easier, eased in grade and gets a 4lb drop from the handicapper. Could be open to improvement at a nice price. FENNELL BAY could also go well, just 1lb higher than last success at Ascot. WYBORNE 1pt E/W @ 22/1 (BOG - BetVictor) FENNELL BAY 1pt E/W @ 7/1 (BOG - BetVictor)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Though Fennell Bay might run into a place yesterday, but Wyborne was very disappointing indeed. Sun 14th Apr 2013 3.35 Market Rasen (10 runners) JHWalter Handicap Hurdle Class 4, 2m5f , Good, 4yo+, Win: £3249 1) JADHERE (115) - Slight doubt over stamina at this trip and 5lb higher than last winning mark. Without a win in 2012 and 4/14 in February here. Looks held. 2) LUCKY LANDING (115) - Won on prenultimate start round here in a novices hurdle LTO. Is 15lb higher than only handicap win (over fences) and yet to win past 2m3f. 3) TEO VIVO (108) - Just four racecourses appearances to his name and this handicap debut. Made frame on 3 starts and 3rd at Newcastle on penultimate start isn't too bad. Might want further? 4) BECKHANI (108) - Made from in 3 of 5 starts, 27L 5/13 LTO and others preferred. 5) FAIRYNUFF (102) - Beaten long way both starts this year. Drying ground may not help. 6) AROUND A POUND (100) - 1/23 and that win was on soft in a Cl5 from 9lb lower. Seems to like it here though - 1244 - which is his best form. 7) HALUCHA (97) - Both wins have been at this trip and grade, generally disappointing since winning a hcap novices hurdle at back end of 2011, but well handicapped on that form and dropped back in trip today after contesting at 3m+ last twice. E/W chance. 8) BUNRATTY (88) - 0/16 and probbaly wants the ground a bit softer and the trip a bit shorter - PP006 at 2m4f+. 9) JACK ALBERT (81) - 8lbs out of the handicap and has a lot to do to figure. 10) VELVET VIC (77) - Decent 2nd LTO but 12lb out of the handicap and can't get involved with. ===================== Not much good form on offer here, so a chance is taken with HALUCHA, who will probably appreciated the drop in trip and runs off a career low mark today. E/W chance. HALUCHA 1pt E/W @ 11/1 BOG

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Sun 14th Apr 2013 3.20 Ffos Las (6 runners) IWEC Electrical Handicap Chase Class 4, 3m1½f , Good To Soft, 5yo+, Win: £3769 1) MY BOY PADDY (116) - Yet to win a handicap and recent form a worry - goes well at this sort of grade though and could put up a bold show if back to best 2) SEIGNEUR DES BOIS (110) - Won at 2m and 2m5f, jockey's claim helps with the weight but can't back with question mark over the trip. 3) CARDIGAN ISLAND (106) - Trip no problem and back out quickly after finishing 2nd last week. Struggled from this sort of mark in the past, though. 4) RADUIS BLEU (105) - 0/18 and no evidence to suggest he'll stay this far - 7P0 at 3m+. 5) KILCOMMON PRIDE (104) - Softening ground could be in his favour (all 3 wins have come on soft). Excels in small fields and is 131P round here. Recent form a worry but now back on last winning mark. Big chance if back to that sort of form. 6) SIR MATTIE (102) - 4lbs lower than last (only) winning mark (over hurdles) but pulled up on 2/3 chase starts. ======================= A wide open affair, and to my mind this is between KILCOMMON PRIDE and MY BOY PADDY, with preference for MY BOY PADDY who is eased in grade and runs off a career low mark. MY BOY PADDY 1pt WIN @ 3/1 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Mon 15th Apr 2013 3.40 Redcar (11 runners) Book Tickets Online At redcarracing.co.uk Handicap Class 4, 1m , Good, 4yo+, Win: £6469 1) TWO FOR TWO (85) - Uk debut after 8 starts in France. Untested on today's conditions and can only watch on that basis. 2) KALK BAY (84) - Has won over 1m earlier in career. Claimer puts him back down to last winning mark and takes a drop in grade (last win was in a C4). Could go well back on prefered ground at a very nice price. Only concern is he lay off as usually needs a run. 3) BARREN BROOK (80) - Another who usually needs a run, didn't win in 2012 and improvement needed. Well handicapped though. 4) DESTINY BLUE (78) - 3/9 on season bow two weeks ago, runs off same mark today but still 4lb higher than last winning mark. Should be fitter than many of these. 5) ASCRIPTION (78) - 5 outings to his name, winning a handicap off 70 on soft last July. Well held afterwards and best watched. 6) BLING KING (77) - Looks held based on handicap form. 7) ODDYSEY (77) - Very consistent performer who was improving all last year. Up another 2lbs for 1L 2nd LTO. Should give good account but question mark over fitness. 8) FAZZA (76) - 0/11 at this sort of level and all wins have been wth breaks of 30 days of less. 9) WARFARE (76) - Winner as a 3yo at Ascot last year but struggled since. 10) AZRAEL (74) - Up 2lbs for win at Yarmouth and very consistent before that. Upped in grade now but should give good account. 11) HAKUNA MATATA (71) - 4lb higher than last winning mark. =============== A chance is taken on KALK BAY who has a lay-off to overcome and if ready to fire, has a good ech way chance. KALK BAY 1pt E/W @ 14/1 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Tue 16th Apr 2013 3.00 Exeter (9 runners) Higos Insurance Services Marathon Handicap Chase Class 3, 3m6½f , Soft, 5yo+, Win: £6330 1) UPHAM ATOM (124) - Won at Taunton LTO at 3m5f, up 5lbs for that but dropped in grade. Stays all day and must have a big chance, albeit from career high mark. 2) SEA SAFFRON (122) - Won this last year but now 20lb higher. 2nd LTO over C&D but ground could be a bit too soft based on recent form. 3) GLOBAL POWER (119) - yet to win past 2m7f but loves the ground and respectable 4th in Midlands National which was first attempt at 3m1f+ and that was too probably too far, but this trip could be perfect. Dropped in the weights and can go very well.. 4) REBLIS (114) - Yet to race past 3m5f and discounted on that basis. 5) MOBAASHER (111) - Usually wants the ground a bit firmer. Won at 3m2f but stamina in question. 6) JAUNTY JOURNEY (109) - 0/18 in handicap chases and not won over hurdles past 3m. 7) DOUBLE DIZZY (108) - 12yo who pops up now and again. On last winning mark and generally consistent but others just about preferred. 8) THE CLYDA ROVER (107) - Consistent sort who won over C&D LTO. Up 10lbs for that success but should still be involved at the finish. 9) DERMATOLOGISTE (101) - Won over 3m1f at Wetherby LTO, has won over today's trip but both wins have been at lower grade. ================= Two have taken my eye in this one, namely GLOBAL POWER and THE CLYDA ROVER. The former ran well in The Midlands National LTO where 4m1f was too long - this much more realistic and takes a 7lb drop in the weights. THE CLYDA ROVER was impressive LTO and can build on recent good work. GLOBAL POWER 1pt WIN @ 13/2 (BOG) THE CLYDA ROVER 1pt WIN @ 3/1 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 1st and 2nd today, outrageous staying performance from THE CLYDA ROVER. The SF paid 20/1. Shame I didn't have it. :(

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Wed 17th Apr 2013 4.20 Beverley (13 runners) Race Horse Trader 'Commission Free' Handicap Class 3, 5f , Good To Firm, 4yo+, Win: £7439 1) JAMAICAN BOLT (95) - Question mark over conditions having never raced on anything firmer than Good. Some decent efforts since winning c4 at Ayr, including a Neck 2nd at Doncaster in a C2 in October. 2) ANCIENT CROSS (94) - Well behind JAMAICAN BOLT latest and 0/13 on GF. Not won since 2011 (16 races) but on winnable mark. 3) SWISS CROSS (91) - Been running on the AW all winter, all winning done at 5f/6f but like ANCIENT CROSS, on very winnable mark. 4) BOSUN BREEZE (87) - Not seen since October but has won off a similar break. Finished off last season poorly and can't be fancied. 5) LAST BID (87) - Takes a nudge down in grade, finished 2/11 when last seen at this level but all wins have been when fitter. 6) HEAD SPACE (87) - Not seen since September and struggled off revised mark after 2 wins in 3 outings in June. Still looks high enough in the weights and probably needs the run. 7) MISTER MANANNAN (87) - Ground and trip ideal but usually needs the run. Lightly raced but just one win since 2009 and only beat 2/51 rivals home in last 4 outings. 8) CHOOSEDAY (85) - Both wins have been at 6f but hasn't fared too badly over 5f on his 3 attempts, including latest in better event at Doncaster. Chance. 9) LAST SOVERIEGN (85) - Only one of to C&D winners in the field, suited by conditions and goes very well fresh. Struggles at this grade though and handicapped to best. 10) ARCTIC FEELING (85) - 0/6 on GF and 0/23 in races with 12 or more runners. Can't fancy. 11) BABY STRANGE (83) - Ticks many boxes and versatile ground wise but poor LTO in November. 12) CARANBOLA (81) - Usually needs to be fitter but has won over C&D. 13) JEDWARD (81) - Probably wants more juice in the ground and last 4 outings have been poor. ====================== JAMAICAN BOLT looks to have the best chance here, is well drawn and must surely go well if building on Doncaster 2nd (behind Jack Dexter) over this trip (with jockey's claim is effectively 2lb lower in an easier race). CHOOSEDAY can also go well and is worth a small E/W bet. JAMAICAN BOLT 2pt WIN @ 3/1 (BOG) CHOOSEDAY 0.5pt E/W @ 10/1 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Both non runners today!