Peacock's Punting 2013

[bully3061]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Echo what's been said by Graham. Bit of advice is read your own little snippet that you write as i'm sure that would of put you off yesterdays. Todays pick i'd be worried bout the sire only 7% strike rate but not put through the filters of price range which you would expect to have a bearing. I asked HRB to put on the % win/place rate in the sire bit which they have. Also something interesting i use is free on flat stats you can look how trainers/sires perform if there runner won lto and there are other interesting free bits. Keep at it as only a few make this game pay and by being selective your are going the right way. Certainly no need to beat yourself up.

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Thanks Bully some great advice, much appreciated, and you're right, the 4.15 at Cartmel yesterday, I gave a better write up to the actual winner than my selection! Just frustrated that my now 1/30 SR has lost pretty much all the bank I'd built up. Oh well, I guess that's part and parcel of this game. As I said, I'm away for a few days soon, and although I;ll be having a few on course bets at Carlisle on Wendesday, I'll be away from this thread for a few days after some bets at Ripon tomorrow. Thanks again. 25/08/2013 Bets 272 Winners (Win & E/W) 54 Placed (E/W only) 22 Total Staked (pts) 466.71 Overall P/L (pts) +27.97 Strike Rate 19.9% Yield 6.0% Aug-13 -17.13 Jul-13 +18.91 Jun-13 +5.40 May-13 +7.78 Apr-13 -6.76 Mar-13 +5.35 Feb-13 +19.26 Jan-13 -4.85

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Mon 26th Aug 2013 4.10 Ripon (14 runners) Ripon Rowels Handicap Class 2, 1m , Good To Soft, 3yo+, Win: £12602 1) ROBERT THE PAINTER (97) - On a fourtimer after winning twice at Beverley and following up over C&D latest. Up again in grade and racing from highest ever weight although jockey takes 5lb off. Any drying of round sure to help and should go well and beat 3 of these LTO. 2) THE RECTIFIER (96) - On hat-trick after wins at Redcar and York, both on GF. Upped in grade (has won listed event though) and 4lb higher now. Ground not ideal. 3) TRAIL BLAZE (95) - Blinkers have lead to an improvement in the 4yo, finishing 2nd and 3rd in nice handicaps. Looks in the grip of the handicapper though, 6lb above highest winning mark, with no claimer on board. 4) CAPTAIN BERTIE (94) - Conditions should suit but beaten long way both starts since winning at Chester in May. Those two were very hot races though and this much easier, 7lb claimer puts him on very enticing mark. 5) SUITS ME (93) - Confirmed front runner that could have own way up front and goes well here (01153261). Sole win since 2011 came over C&D but not won at this grade or higher since 2009. No let up from the handicapper. 6) HAAFAGUINEA (97) - Excellent start to career with 3 solid peformances, before flopping at Goodwood LTO. This much easier and no surprise to see him go well. 7) JUSTONEFORTHEROAD (90) - Back on last winning mark but well beaten last 4 outings since Lincoln 4th and can't back. 8) OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY (90) - Goes very well here at this sort of level (1314715) and won this race three times. Should go well again and hard to discount with claimer on board. 9) ARDMAY (90) - Won over C&D in May in similar conditions, 2lb higher than that win but needs to bounce back from flop lastest. 10) ANTON CHIGURH (89) - Just 1lb higher than last win, but 3 races since then have been very poor. 11) DUBAI DYNAMO (86) - On attractive mark, but could be a step too far these days. 12) NO POPPY (85) - 7lb rise for LTO 2nd over C&D behind ROBERT THE PAINTER. Last won at York in October and will enjoy conditions. 13) COMPTON (84) - Well beaten in all 2013 starts and discounted, despite good draw. 14) DESERT REVOLUTION (82) - Light raced and open to improvement, but best form came on GF and looks held in handicap company. =============================== A competitive and wide open affair in which a case can be made for most of these. HAAFAGUINEA should go very well but isn't much of a price in this sort of race and ROBERT THE PAINTER faces his toughest task yet. Preference therefore is for two at bigger prices. ARDMAY needs to bounce back from a poor showing LTO, but he is capable and if this is one of his going days, could make at least a place at a nice price and has gone well off a break in the past. CAPTAIN BERTIE found his last two outings at Goodwood and Ascot a bit too hot, but is now back at a much more realistic level and with the jockey's claim, at a very attractive mark. CAPTAIN BERTIE 0.5pt E/W @ 22/1 (BOG BetVictor) ARDMAY 0.5pt E/W @ 25/1 (BOG SJ)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Back home after a cracking few days in the Lakes. Carlisle races was smashing, although, my luck from this thread and continued and I didn't have a single placed horses, never mind a winner! Awful. Even the Mrs failed with her usual nice name/nice colour system! Still, it was a cracking little course, very friendly, smashing paddock area and some brilliant vantage points. I'm also nice and refreshed and got a couple of days to try to reduce the deficit somewhat! :ok

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 I've been thinking too, I'm going to slightly alter my approach to this thread.... Rather than writing a bit for each horse, which when I started out helped me think about each runner's chances, I'm going to discount the horses I don't fancy, for whatever reason, and just concentrate on writing something for the horses I do like. This will enable to spend more time looking at the the lively contenders, rather than spending time thinking of something to write to fill a few lines about some animals that I don't fancy at all. I may miss out on being able to go back and see in writing why I discounted a particular winner, but I think it has definite overall advantages, especially in bigger races. We'll see how it goes anyway ..... :lol

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Just looked at the racing tonight and it's piss poor, so will draw a line under an awful August .... and move on. Here's hoping in September I can break my 1/32 current form! 31/08/2013 Bets 274 Winners (Win & E/W) 54 Placed (E/W only) 23 Total Staked (pts) 468.71 Overall P/L (pts) +29.22 Strike Rate 19.7% Yield 6.2% Aug-13 -15.88 Jul-13 +18.91 Jun-13 +5.40 May-13 +7.78 Apr-13 -6.76 Mar-13 +5.35 Feb-13 +19.26 Jan-13 -4.85 [ATTACH]5187[/ATTACH]

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Sun 1st Sep 2013 3.20 Newton Abbot (13 runners) totequadpot Four Places In Four Races Handicap Hurdle Class 2, 2m6f , Good, 4yo+, Win: £16266 1) GAUVAIN (140) - Not seen since October (won off similar breaks), this much easier than some of races last year, including 3 Grade 1's. Has done OK over hurdles (32221350) in the past but sight question mark over trip and ground. 2) RUM AND BUTTER (140) - On hat-trick after two impressive wins here. Up 18lbs now though and unproven at this trip. All wins in smaller fields and usually needs longer rest between races. Too short condsidering, although should go well enough. 3) AMERICAN TRILOGY (135) - Not won since early 2011 and well beaten recently. First start for Dan Skelton and ground back in favour, but usually needs the run after such a break. 4) SHERIFF HUTTON (135) - Winner at 3m3f LTO and up 9lb for that. Ground ideal and in good nick. Career best needed. 5) DECOY (129) - 0/6 at this level and on career high mark. 6) KANGAROO COURT (128) - No real impression in 4 handicap hurdles at varying trips. No form past 2m4f. 7) GET HOME NOW (127) - In decent form but up another 6lbs for 2nd LTO. 5l Behind RUM AND BUTTER latest and 16L in front of 3rd. 12lb better off today. Ground fine, but slight question mark over trip. 8) STREET ENTERTAINER (124) - Usually contests better races than this over obstacles and on attractive mark. But others prefered. Big question mark over stamina. 9) MY BROTHER SYLVEST (123) - Front runner who won a Cl2 chase LTO at Ffos Las and is 1lb lower today. Has won at this trip in the past/ Could get own way up front too, interesting. 10) CHURCH FIELD (122) - 5yo who has won last 4 races going up 37lbs in the process. Could be more to come but needs to improve. 11) HIGH STORM (120) - Looks a tough task in this company and others prefered. 12) KYLENOE FAIRY (114) - 4/8 here and conditions ideal but beaten 20L+ on last few starts at this level. 13) TEAK (108) - Out of the handicap and more probably needed. =============================== RUM AND BUTTER has improved 38lbs since starting his hurdle career in April but manner of his win LTO suggests he's still open to further improvement. He could only finish 4th when attempting this trip once before, but the penny seems to have dropped now and McCoy on board is obvioulsy a big positive. MY BROTHER SYLVEST won a 2m event over fences LTO at Ffos Las and runs off 1lb lower over hurdles today. One of only four in the field who have won at this distance or greater. Ground ideal and the front runner could get own up front. RUM AND BUTTER 1pt WIN @ 7/2 (BOG BetVictor) MY BROTHER SYLVEST 0.75pt E/W @ 10/1 (BOG SJ)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Mon 2nd Sep 2013 4.50 Ffos Las (6 runners) Barry Walters Catering Fillies' Handicap Class 4, 6f , Good To Firm, 3yo+, Win: £4690 1) GINZAN (77) - Not far away last twice but but this trip looks a touch too far and no let up from handicapper. 2) QUEEN AGGIE (78) - Won first two starts (both over 6f) but generally disappointing since. All best form at Chester. 3) FINESSE (73) - Won a 5f maiden here last year. Back down to 6f but probably needs more. 4) ABATED (75) - Shed maiden tag on penultimate start winning a 3 runner race at Lingfield. 2nd over C&D LTO behind MY OWN WAY HOME but 12lb better off today and should have enough improvement in her to reverse placings. 5) EDGED OUT (73) - Done well last twice at Bath but this tougher from this mark. 6) MY OWN WAY HOME (67) - Not finished out of first 3 in last 9 outings. Ryan Moore on board on obvious bonus but may just be in the handicappers grip. ========================== ABATED with only 5 racecourse starts gets the nod here against some seemingly exposed rivals. The 3yo goes back up against the consistent MY OWN WAY HOME but this time is 12lbs better off. Looks open to improvement and should go very well from a decent draw. Slight worry is she's gone off favourite 4 times, and lost each time, but not letting that put me off on this occasion. ABATED 2pt WIN @ 7/4 (BOG PP)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 My god awful form continues, although ABATED was well ahead of the the rest, and had no chance with the impressive winner. Sr of 1/35 now ... and counting! :lol

[Kithanga]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Keep going, I had 40 on the trot towards the end of May running well into June. Still ended the month ahead though as things turned round significantly in the last week and it's been steadily upwards since.

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Sat 7th Sep 2013 2.00 Thirsk (12 runners) Barkers Of Northallerton Handicap (Div 1) Class 4, 6f , Good To Soft, 4yo+, Win: £6469 1) SOLAR SPIRIT (80) - Conditions ideal and well drawn. Won at Catterick on penultimate start off 75 but finds it tough in these better cl4 events (0/12). 2) HAMOODY (80) - Ground looks against him and this looks too hot for him at this stage in his career. 3) AZZURA DU CAPPRIO (79) - Won a Cl5 3 starts ago but that was first win for 2 years and well beaten since. 0/16 in 8 runner+ races. On decent mark with claimer on board but more needed on ground not ideal, decent draw though. 4) WILD SAUCE (77) - In good form this summer making frame 3 times and winning LTO. Up again in the weights but should give running despite usually finding a couple too good at this level. 6) WAKING WARRIOR (75) - 24 race turf maiden who cant be backed. 7) BONNIE CHARLIE (74) - Won this last year off 2lb higher on firm at 33/1 and is the only C&D winner in the field. Been running OK all summer and one for shortlist, despite just 2 wins since 2008 when was pretty smart. 8) YPRES (73) - Very consistent type attemmpting Cl4 for first time. Well drawn, but more needed. 9) LULU THE ZULU (72) - Up 6lbs for LTO win at Nottingham. Dropped in grade though and ground should pose no problems. Big chance if continuing improvement. Draw not ideal. 10) BURNHOPE (70) - Not much pace in the race so this one could get own way up front. Disappointing of late but possible excuses with regards to ground and taking on softish ground for first time in career which looks like it will suit. 11) MUTAFAAKIR (70) - Consistent but 1/20 and that win was a Cl5 on GF. Shouldn't be a million miles away but others have to be preferred. 12) FAMA MAC (67) - Ground should pose no problems, but well beaten both starts this year in easier races. ======================= I like the look of two relatively unexposed types in this field. LULU THE ZULU looks to have an excellent chance to make it 2/2. Did well in 3 maidens at Doncaster (all of which have worked out reasonably well) and then won LTO in a Cl3 handicap on GS at Nottingham. That wasn't arguably wasn't as strong as this one, but there is probably more to come from the 5yo. BURNHOPE is another one I like at a nice price. The 4yo has only had 4 racecourse starts, but 3 of those have been on GF which I'm not sure suits. His only other start on the turf was on Good ground was over C&D where he finished 4th with today's jockey on board. He's 5lb lower than that today and could go very well if breaking well and dictating from the front on ground that he will hopefully act on. Has to overcome stall number 1 though. LULU THE ZULU 2pt WIN @ 7/2 (BOG William Hill) BURNHOPE 0.5pt E/W @ 20/1 (BOG William Hill)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013

Keep going' date=' I had 40 on the trot towards the end of May running well into June. Still ended the month ahead though as things turned round significantly in the last week and it's been steadily upwards since.[/quote'] Thanks for the words mate, much appreciated. Hopefully I can enjoy a similar upturn of fortunes. :)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Taking a bit of a break from this thread. Be back soon. :ok