Peacock's Punting 2013

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Hello all, I tried starting this thread late last year but had a couple of crappy personal/family problems to deal with since, but, I'm back in the game now so to speak, and a fresh year means a fresh challenge, so I'm starting again, fit and raring to go in 2013! As I attempted before, this thread will contain all my horse racing bets going forward. No little bets, no following tips, hunches, names or colours ;). Just my thoughts and selections backed with, when I can, (admitedly not much of) my own money. I will keep a full profit/loss spreadsheet and update reguarly. I have always had a bit of a scattergun approach to race selection, so I'm hoping that this way enables me to find my strengths/weaknesses and improve my betting. I bet semi reguarly, mostly on handicaps and on all codes, and it's mainly when I get the time these days. You will notice that I do a little write up for each horse in the race, I'm not trying to be clever, it's just otherwise I forget why I've discounted a particular runner! I also find it really helps when a horse that I've put a line wins, and I can see where I went wrong. These are just my thoughts and I try to do it with out any exposure to RP/Timeform analysis and any odds forecast so I am not swayed, although the latter is pretty tough. Edit: What a load of nonsense that last sentence was - I think I originally thought that I would be swayed by chances of a short price favourite, or put off by a long priced outsider when I really fancied it, when infact, quite the opposite is true and the odds are invaluable for assesing 'value'. I use Horseracebase for my analysis which is a great tool that I have come to rely on. Anyway, as it stands, all my bets are with Betvictor and are BOG. Edit: Thats tripe now too, I originally started with just the one bookie, but the EP's vary considerably some times, so again, it's invaluable to shop around. Thanks, hope I don't embarass us all. :ok Edit: Thought I'd do a P/L on the first post so it keeps everything nice and simple. [TABLE]

[TR] [TD=class: xl75]17/07/2013[/TD] [TD=class: xl70, width: 93][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65, width: 154]Bets[/TD] [TD=class: xl71, width: 93]242[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65, width: 154]Winners (Win & E/W)[/TD] [TD=class: xl71, width: 93]53[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65, width: 154]Placed (E/W only)[/TD] [TD=class: xl71, width: 93]19[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65, width: 154]Total Staked (pts)[/TD] [TD=class: xl71, width: 93]426.71[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65, width: 154]Overall P/L (pts)[/TD] [TD=class: xl69, width: 93]+52.84[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65, width: 154]Strike Rate[/TD] [TD=class: xl72, width: 93]21.9%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65, width: 154]Yield[/TD] [TD=class: xl72, width: 93]12.4%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl67, width: 154][/TD] [TD=class: xl70, width: 93][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl74, width: 154]Jul-13[/TD] [TD=class: xl73, width: 93]+26.66[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl74, width: 154]Jun-13[/TD] [TD=class: xl73, width: 93]+5.40[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl68, width: 154]May-13[/TD] [TD=class: xl73, width: 93]+7.78[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl68, width: 154]Apr-13[/TD] [TD=class: xl73, width: 93]-6.76[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl74, width: 154]Mar-13[/TD] [TD=class: xl73, width: 93]+5.35[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl68, width: 154]Feb-13[/TD] [TD=class: xl73, width: 93]+19.26[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl68, width: 154]Jan-13[/TD] [TD=class: xl73, width: 93]-4.85[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Thu 10th Jan 2013 1.35 Wolverhampton (9 runners) coral.co.uk Handicap Class 6, 5f , Standard, 4yo+, Win: £1941 1) LIBERTY SHIP (58) - 0/8 on the AW, tumbling down the weights and decent 3rd LTO 2L behind Miss Bunter over C&D who won again last week. Gets another 2lb drop today and has a chance. 2) LOYAL ROYAL (57) - Veteran who is 6/78 on the AW (all those coming at 6f+). On a losing streak going back 25 races and hard to see that changing today, despite troubling the judge off similar marks in the past. 3) ROSE GARNET (57) - In good form of late finishing 2nd last twice and winning at Kempton in November over 6f. Up in the weights now though. 4) LEGAL EAGLE (55) - Yet to win on the AW in 14 attempts and very disappointed LTO over C&D. Went close back in May off a similar mark but can't select with any confidence at all. 5) SALLYS SWANSONG (55) - 1lb higher than last winning mark (C&D in September). Struggled since and needs dramatic improvement. 6) NAFA (53) - Some decent efforts on the AW but pprobably needs more of a hand from the handicapper. Hard to see her reversing form with HAB REEH. 7) CHATEAU LOLA (52) - 8L behind HAB REEH LTO when 3lb higher and opposed on same terms today. Broke badly then but surely no chance with the favourite. 8) THORPE BAY (52) - At a career low mark but 0/13 at 5f and sole win from 24 starts was in a claimer. 9) HAB REEH (49) - Excellent performance LTO to land first win after being dropped to 5f for the first time on the AW. Hard to see him getting beat if still fit and anywhere near that form. ============ Hard to see HAB REEH getting beaten if reproducing LTO form. LIBERTY SHIP could trouble him the most. HAB REEH 3pts WIN @ 11/8 LIBERTY SHIP 1pt E/W @ 7/1

[bully3061]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Nice start Peacock. Good luck with the blog :D

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Thanks bully. :ok Always nice to get off to a winning start. :) Liberty Ship went out to 9/1. Good old BOG! Not sure what happened with Hab Reeh, never seemed happy.

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Fri 11th Jan 2013 6.30 Wolverhampton (7 runners) Win More On Betting At bookmakers.co.uk Handicap Class 3, 1m4f , Standard, 4yo+, Win: £7246 1) ART HISTORY (88) - Beaten massively on last couple of starts on the turf including 40L at 100/1 LTO on the turf at Donny. This easier now down in grade. Most definitely has the ability, and has had money come in for him. Trainer bang on form 10/17 and massive chance. 2) FLYING POWER (84) - On a hat-trick after scoring well last twice over C&D. That winning form has worked out reasonably well and is now up 4lbs. Looks to have room for improvement though. 3) ASCENDANT (82) - 0/7 on the AW and this looks tough having never ran in a C3, despite some respectable recent performances 4) THE LOCK MASTER (82) - Plum last LTO over C&D in a similar event and well behing ASCENDANT and MICA MIKA. 5) MICA MIKA (81) - Won nicely LTO over C&D off 77, 4lb higher today, chance, but others prefered. 6) KAMES PARK (67) - Veteran who won a C6 event over C&D LTO, however 0/9 at this level and a lot more needed to trouble judge, despite former glories. 7) RENEGOTIATE (71) - 6lb penalty for very impressive win LTO over C&D. Turned out quickly again and chance. ============= Really good race for a Friday night at Wolverhampton and there's plenty with a chance. Preference is for ART HISTORY who's trainer is on fire at the moment and who has the ability to win such a race if primed. ART HISTORY 1pt @ 3/1 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Sat 12th Jan 2013 2.25 Warwick (18 runners) Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Class 2, 3m1f , Soft, 5yo+, Win: £11574 1) HOLLOW TREE (142) - Group 1 winning Juvenile hurdle winner at Cheltenham a year ago, ground no problem but this trip furthest he's attempted by 5f so question mark over stamina. 2) SUNNYHILLBOY (140) - Cheltenham festival winner and 2nd in Grand National in 2012, ground no problems and should get the distance. Chance on best form. 3) KNOCKAHAND (140) - Some good form in novice hurdles and won similar event in sole handicap, with jockey's claim is only 1lb higher than that today. Disappointing last twice in chases but switched back to hurdles now. 4) BATTLE GROUP (137) - On same mark as last two wins but out of form recently and hard to make a solid case for. 5) ALPHA VICTOR (135) - Lightly raced 8 year old and winner LTO on heavy at Haydock. That was a class 4 and up 6lbs for that. Needs top class performance to defy this weight. 6) HOLYWELL (135) - 5 runs and very consistent (31222) looks open to improvement if dealing with another 5lb rise. 7) WEST END ROCKER (135) - Back over hurdles for first time since 2008. Question mark over distance. 8) THE PACKAGE (134) - Campaigned over fences last couple of years, now switched back to hurdles. Potentially on very good mark but too short in the market to get involved. 9) SIMARIAN (133) - No guarantees attempting distance for first time, this tougher than previous assignments. 10) ELY BROWN (130) - 5lb higher than last winning mark but disappointing LTO. 11) STORM SURVIVOR (126) - Shock winner LTO over similar distance and grade but effectively up 17lb today. AP on board but hard to see him winning. 12) WHAT AN OSCAR (126) - 6lb higher than last winning mark and this looks out of depth. 13) HADA MEN (126) - Seems to have gone off the boil since win off 4lb at Haydock 14) DE LA BECH (125) - Up 7lb for win at Ascot and needs to keep improvement going, not prepared to chance at the price. 15) THE JUGOPOLOLIST (125) - Handicap debut but best watched at this stage. 16) DUKE OF MONMOUTH (120) - More needed to reverse form with ELY BROWN or ALPHA VICTOR. 17) OKAFRANKA (115) - 13lb higher than last winning mark and this tougher. 18) BOOMTOWN KAT (105) - Big odds ast teice and hard to see how he will trouble the judge. ============= Taking SUNNYHILLBOY and HOLYWELL against the field. In my eyes the former has a better chance than McCoy's mount and could very very well at a decent price. The lightly raced and consistent HOLYWELL is taken to improve sufficiently and is a good each way bet to nothing. SUNNYHILLBOY 1pt E/W @ 16/1 (BOG) KNOCK A HAND 1pt E/W @ 14/1 (BOG) HOLYWELL 2pt E/W @ 6/1 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Sat 12th Jan 2013 2.15 Wetherby (5 runners) Yorkshire Post Ladies' Evening - 30th May Handicap Chase Class 2, 2m , Soft, 5yo+, Win: £11710 1) HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO (135) - Last seen finishing 10/20 at Cheltenham LTO, 2lbs lower today and 2) LEASE LEND (132) - Does most of racing round here and always consistent (1331223238153432). 3) DUNOWEN POINT (130) - Given great account of himself recently, winning most recently at Sedgefield on boxing day. This is a serious step up in class though. 4) KEALIGOLANE (124) - Just 1lb higher than when winning at Sedgefield but off the boil since then and others appeal more. 5) SAVEIRO (120) - Decent enough at his level but this surely too tough, even with apprentice claiming 7lbs. ==================== Interesting contest in which LEASE LEND is the selection. 2nd LTO in a pretty decent race and off the same mark today. If he doesn't get into a front running duel with KEALOGOLANE, he has a great chance. LEASE LEND 2pt WIN @ 5/2 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Sat 12th Jan 2013 3.15 Kempton (9 runners) William Hill - Download The App Handicap Chase Class 2, 3m , Good To Soft, 5yo+, Win: £11574 1) GOLDEN CHIEFTAN (138) - Ground ideal. Good effort LTO when third behind Unioniste in a Group 3. This looks easier on paper, but back up in trip now and 75P5P when attempting this far in this grade. 2) KINGSMERE (137) - Failed to finish last twice when contesting good events. This looks out of his reach. 3) MUSH MIR (135) - 50% strike rate but all wins in novice events. Disappointing when last seen over hurdles and on same mark today. 4) BAILE ANRAI (133) - More needed coming back from 2 months off in only 3rd handicap. 5) PROPGETE DE GUYE (129) - Has won 7 times over fences at a variety of distances, but now 9lbs higher than any of those wins. 6) BRACKLOON HIGH (128) - 3/3 in January but looks handicapped out of it. 7) STONEYS TREASURE (128) - Lightly raced who has got nose in front 4 times in 13 outings. 3rd behind Restless Harry LTO. 8) ON TREND (127) - Upped in trip and this looks out of his reach unless drastically improving. 9) HANDTHEPRIZEOVER (116) - Looking for four timer after winning last three times on both outings last year. Well up the weights now and no claimer on board but looks open to improvement. ============= HANDTHEPRIZEOVER looks a game sort and may have enough improvement in him to see off these. STONEYS TREASURE is feared the most. HANDTHEPRIZEOVER 2pt WIN @ 10/3 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Sat 12th Jan 2013 3.10 Lingfield (6 runners) Marsh Green Handicap Class 3, 1m2f , Standard, 4yo+, Win: £7439 1) EMERALD WITNESS (95) - Won this last year off 92 and 8lb higher today. Good 2nd LTO in listed company over C&D this easier but handicapper done no favours. 2) ROBIN HOODS BAY (92) - Looks high enough in weights after win at Wolverhampton. 3) MAWAAKEF (91) - 8lb higher than last win on penultimate start. Weighted to reverse placing with EMERALD WITNESS. 4) HANOVERIAN BARON (85) - Mostly disappointing in AW handicaps. Discounted. 5) KAAFEL (86) - Tight win LTO over C&D in a class 4. That form not worked out brilliantly abnd whilst open to improvement, too short in the betting. 6) LOYALTY (83) - Has won off much higher in the past but seems hard to catch right and all wins over less than today. ======== One not to get too heavily involved with but EMERALD WITNESS seems worth a point at the price. 2nd LTO is promising and jockey's claim can only help matters. EMERALD WITNESS 1pt @ 8/1 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Just a bit of an update after a busy and slightly disappointing day: [TABLE=width: 185]

[TR] [TD]Bets[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Winners (Win & E/W)[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Placed (E/W)[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Total Staked (pts)[/TD] [TD]19.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Overall P/L (pts)[/TD] [TD]-1.2[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Could have been better though as had a couple of seconds and one who could be considered a touch unlucky. Still, I learnt lots today, which is the main thing. :ok

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Sun 13th Jan 2013 2.20 Kelso (6 runners) Electricity Network Solutions Handicap Chase Class 4, 2m1f , Heavy, 5yo+, Win: £3899 1) GLEANN NA NDOCCHAIS (104) - 2nd behind SERGEANT PINK LTO, 4lbs nearer today which should negate the 4 length defeat, looked like the winner a long way out but got it all wrong at last fence. 2) SERGEANT PINK (99) - Broke long losing run LTO in hard working win against GLEANN NA NDOCCHAIS. A similar performance needed. 3) SADDLE PACK (97) - 28L 4th LTO in similar conditions. Finish 2nd off the same mark at Hexham but all winning form off less and on Good. 4) TOPO GIGIO (90) - 0/16 so far, best run was LTO in a handicap seller but this tougher. 5) PRINCE TAM (88) - Has looked bang out of form since win at Newcastle last March. 2lb lower today but hard to have any confidence in. 6) EMIRATE ISLE (87) - Out of the blue 25/1 winner at Catterick LTO, has disappointed last twice after winning suggesting he's not the most consistent. Not sure ground is ideal either. =============== GLEANN NA NDOCCHAIS gets the nod here. Arguably should have won when messed up at the final fence to let SERGEANT PINK land the spoils. Wasn't beaten up and should be fitter than the Dianne Sayer gelding. Can't back EMIRATE ISLE with his record, despite nice run LTO. GLEANN NA NDOCCHAIS 2pt @ 2/1 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Sun 13th Jan 2013 3.00 Wolverhampton (13 runners) coral.co.uk Mobile Casino Handicap Class 4, 5f , Standard, 4yo+, Win: £4690 1) DORBACK (82) - 6lb higher than both AW handicap wins. Good 2nd in a class 3 on penultimate start over today's distance, upped to 6f latest and disappoiting. Chance now back at 5f, despite 2lbs higher. 2) VERINCO (80) - 0/8 on the AW (mostly at Southwell) and not seen on track for 85 days. This looks extremely tough from the weight. 3) ALASKAN BULLET (79) - Just the 9 races, 4 on the AW. Decent 3rd on penultimate start but failed to follow that up as favourite LTO. 4) WAKING WARRIOR (78) - Very consistent last year but just got head in front once, and that was over 6f in a lower grade - 0/11 at this level. 5) TANGO SKY (77) - On 4lbs better terms with Dorback now than LTO, messed up the start then and could have been closer. Hard to fancy though. 6) BUBBLY BALLERINA (76) - Won at Lingfield in December over 5f but disappointed since. 7) SLEEPY BLUE OCEAN (76) - 3rd behind DORBACK LTO and 6lbs better off today. This pushing his capabilities (1/10 at this level), but chance if at best. 8) TRIPLE DREAM (76) - 2nd 4 days at Kempton over 5f behind good winner on same mark today but tends to fidn one too good at this level. 9) BEAUTY PAGEANT (75) - Probably too much to do at this level from this weight. 10) ANOTHER CITIZEN (75) - Record round here reads 2222212. Should give another good account but this tougher than recent outings. 11) LUCKY DAN (75) - Not sure 5f on the AW is ideal and happy to oppose. 12) AUBRIETIA (74) - 6 wins in 20 outings so far. 6lb penalty for latest impressive make-all win. First outing at this level, but open to improvement. 13) TIME MEDICCEAN (70) - Has finised 12 last two times trying 5f but never made the frame on the AW and latest down to a C5 doens't inspire confidence. ======================= AUBRIEATIA was very impressive LTO and his 5L victory suggests there's more to come. DORBACK can give her most to do. AUBRIETIA 2pt WIN @ 3/1 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 ========== ABANDONED ========== Sun 13th Jan 2013 1.40 Fakenham (8 runners) Raynham Handicap Chase Class 4, 2m½f , Soft, 5yo+, Win: £3899 1) CHRISTOPHER WREN (115) - 3rd LTO was first bit of good chase form and shaping nicely but too short to be getting involved with 2) FIFTYONTFIFTYONE (115) - Been campsainging in better company and now back down to a more reasonable and a career low mark. Could go well. 3) CAPTAIN PAULIE (115) - Yet to win in the UK after scoring 3 times in Ireland. Dropping down the weights but Chase form doesn't seem good enough unless big improvement. 4) FULGORA (106) - Won a beginners chase on penultimate start but then disappointed LTO when 6/7 and 9/4F. Well behind FULL OV BEANS in December and opposes on same terms. 5) PERSIAN HERALD (103) - Cheekpieces didn't work last time and probably best to look elsewhere 6) FULL OV BEANS (92) - Has won twice in similar contests last Autumn, subsequently penalised by handicaper, but 2nd LTO behind easy winner. That race has had a winner out of it so respected. 7) PHOENIX DES MOTTES (82) - Pulled up last 3 starts and coming back from 4 month absence. All wins have been over longer and is only 1/29 at this level. 8) THE BLACK LION (80) - Two bumper wins in Ireland to his name, best form on better ground, not hard to look elsewhere. ============== CHRISTOPHER WREN could have enough improvement in him with McCoy on board, but staying clear at likely short odds. Preference is for FIFTYFIFTYONE and FULL OV BEANS who both have a race like this in them. FIFTYFIFTYONE 1pt WIN @ 11/2 (BOG) FULL OV BEANS 1pt WIN @ 4/1 (BOG)

[bartrum]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013

Sat 12th Jan 2013 2.15 Wetherby (5 runners) Yorkshire Post Ladies' Evening - 30th May Handicap Chase Class 2, 2m , Soft, 5yo+, Win: £11710 1) HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO (135) - Last seen finishing 10/20 at Cheltenham LTO, 2lbs lower today and 2) LEASE LEND (132) - Does most of racing round here and always consistent (1331223238153432). 3) DUNOWEN POINT (130) - Given great account of himself recently, winning most recently at Sedgefield on boxing day. This is a serious step up in class though. 4) KEALIGOLANE (124) - Just 1lb higher than when winning at Sedgefield but off the boil since then and others appeal more. 5) SAVEIRO (120) - Decent enough at his level but this surely too tough, even with apprentice claiming 7lbs. ==================== Interesting contest in which LEASE LEND is the selection. 2nd LTO in a pretty decent race and off the same mark today. If he doesn't get into a front running duel with KEALOGOLANE, he has a great chance. LEASE LEND 2pt WIN @ 5/2 (BOG)

I also had lease lend... Looked to be shooting clear and just stopped!!!! Very annoying..

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Indeed, he went well enough all the way round until the last!

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Disappointing weekend all round really. Gleann Na Ndochais unseated the rider at the 5th and Aubretia got pipped on the post by the shortest of short noses. There's always tomorrow. :ok [TABLE=width: 233]

[TR] [TD]Bets[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Winners (Win & E/W)[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Placed (E/W)[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Total Staked (pts)[/TD] [TD]23.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Overall P/L (pts)[/TD] [TD]-5.2[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Mon 14th Jan 2013 12.55 Lingfield (5 runners) Bet At bluesq.com Handicap Class 5, 7f , Standard, 4yo+, Win: £2727 1) MUHANDIS (70) - Very consistent of late, and good 2nd LTO behind Al's Memory who went on to score again. Only up 1lb for that and should be there or thereabouts. 2) YANKEE STORM (68) - Last win came over C&D and only 2lb higher than that. Usually only gets nose in front once or twice a year and will probably have easier opportunities than this. 3) SPITFIRE (67) - Won a class 6 LTO at Southwell to break AW duck after 12 attempts. That was over 6f and back up again to 7f is a worry considering he's 0/10 at this distance. 4) COMMANCHE (66) - Switched to AW and won first two outings on the polytrack and today could provide the hat-trick. 5) PAPHOS (64) - Some bits of form in the summer at Kempton and over C&D here, on a workable mark but latest handicap efforts don't inspire/ ================= Hard to split COMMANCHE and MUHANDIS, and wouldn't be surpised if the latter got up, but preference is for the mount of Adam Kirby who could be on an upwards curve and is taken to improve again at the expense of the exposed looking MUHANDIS. COMMANCHE 2pt WIN @ 7/4 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Mon 14th Jan 2013 1.40 Plumpton (7 runners) Timeform Jury Handicap Chase Class 5, 2m1f , Soft, 5yo+, Win: £2274 1) LAJIDAAL (95) - Seems to save best form for Fontwell and looks too high in the weights, with last highest winning mark being 87. 2) GORING TWO (94) - Reasonable record here (545132) but soared up the weights after easy Fontwell win. Up in trip and grade LTO giving very good account until the extra distance took it's toll. Can go very well again. 3) SHES HUMBLE (93) - Old lass who has ran a remarkable 25 times round here, but only got nose in fron 3 times. Last win was in this race a year ago off 2lb higher, but has been beaten heavily last couple of outings and almost discounted. 4) OWNER OCCUPIER (91) - 2/30 and both those wins coming on Good ground. Decent 2nd LTO on heavy though in a better race so chance. 5) BRANNOC (81) - Out of the frame on all seven starts, patchy profile and discounted. 6) PINDAR (80) - Entered in Class 3 chase LTO but Ground far from ideal and can't back with any confidence. 7) UPTON MEAD (64) - Difficult to see how he can get involved with his record so far. ============= If GORING TWO can reproduce latest form he could take all the beating. OWNER OCCUPIER also has good LTO form and wouldn't be surprised if he pops up. GORING TWO 2pt WIN @ 3/1 OWNER OCCUPIER 1pt WIN @ 9/2

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013

I also had lease lend... Looked to be shooting clear and just stopped!!!! Very annoying..

Lease lend did not just stop, he took off too early at the last & landed on top of the fence. Somehow Harry Haynes managed to stay on & got him going again but it looked to me like he had gone lame on his right front leg & connections were looking at him with some concern in the unsaddling enclosure after the race. Rio.

[bartrum]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013

Lease lend did not just stop, he took off too early at the last & landed on top of the fence. Somehow Harry Haynes managed to stay on & got him going again but it looked to me like he had gone lame on his right front leg & connections were looking at him with some concern in the unsaddling enclosure after the race. Rio.

yeah I thought something must have gone wrong!!! Looked through his previous form and he didn't look like a dodge pot!!! It was just one of those where u r counting your money and suddenly its gone... Hey ho!!! Should know never to do that until they cross the line!!! It was a shame though as it had jumped and travelled so well all through the race and deserved to win..

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013

Lease lend did not just stop, he took off too early at the last & landed on top of the fence. Somehow Harry Haynes managed to stay on & got him going again but it looked to me like he had gone lame on his right front leg & connections were looking at him with some concern in the unsaddling enclosure after the race. Rio.

Sorry to hear that Rio, have you heard anything since?

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013

Sorry to hear that Rio' date=' have you heard anything since?[/quote'] No but trying to find anything out about the superstars near impossible never mind the day to day sorts ,I've had a look on Tim Easterby's website & they have a bit up on Fourjacks but nothing on Lease Lend. Lease Lend got his right foreleg stuck in the fence & as he gets going again he looks to go short on that leg & he soon stops after the post. I don't think it was too serious & hopefully he's just tweaked something but it would be nice to know. I wouldn't mind knowing if anything was actually wrong with Swiss Art who was pulled up at Wetherby but then ridden home by the jockey despite him thinking something was amiss & as I put in my thread I wasn't very happy about that. I suppose we'll never really find out. Rio.

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 I wish there was a website or some sort of twitter feed even, whereby the trainers of any horse who falls, has to give a few words and say how the horse is doing. Nothing worse than seeing a horse taking a nasty looking tumble and then hearing nothing again, waiting to see if it's declared in a future race.

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Tue 15th Jan 2013 3.35 Lingfield (5 runners) Dormansland Handicap Chase Class 4, 3m , Heavy, 5yo+, Win: £3970 1) DOUBLE DASH (110) - This is the farthest the George Baker trained gelding has attempted but recorded a good second LTO at Newbury. In with a definite shout if getting the trip. 2) DUNKELLY CASTLE (105) - Won a class 5 very well LTO over 3m2f and up 8lbs for that. Has winning for over 3m. Definite chance. 3) PRESENTED (105) - 9 runs and yet to get off the mark. Gets a big helping hand from apprentice on board today and wouldn't be a huge surprise if popped up. 4) ITOLDYOU (102) - Making handicap debut after 3 novice events, latest a Group 2, but hard to fancy. 5) SALUT HONORE (99) - Up 8lbs for easy win on heavy at Uttoxeter LTO, ground ideal but has struggled from this mark before. ============ All but ITOLDYOU seem to have a chance here and whilst all question marks next to them to a certain, PRESENTED is taken to improve from LTO which was a much better race than this. PRESENTED 1pt WIN @ 4/1 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Tue 15th Jan 2013 1.40 Ffos Las (6 runners) lindleygroup.com Handicap Chase Class 4, 3m , Heavy, 5yo+, Win: £3769 1) SHAKING HANDS (119) - Won similar event LTO at Towcester. The 2nd that day has won a nice chase since and this is definitely winnable on ground that's perfect. 2) GRAN TORINO (118) - Has shown bits of form over fences in the past, down in grade and handicap mark but beaten 47L LTO and can't get involved with. 3) FULL OF JOY (117) - Fell LTO when 5/2 2nd fave, open to improvement over fences though and respected. 4) TEN FIRES (115) - Yet to win the UK and last Ireland win came almost 2 years ago. Back in trip now which seems likely to suit but best left. 5) KILCOMMON PRIDE (112) - Off course for 300 days and best watched on reappearance. 6) FOR THE STAFF (97) - 3 wins in Ireland and 2nd last three outings but yet to win. Failed to justify favouritism LTO and this seems tougher. ================ Top weight SHAKING HANDS should put up a good performance after recent win, trip and ground ideal. FULL OF JOY is main danger. SHAKING HANDS 1pt WIN @ 9/4 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Pleased with the SHAKING HANDS win today, drifted to 3/1 before the off and came home nicely in the end to end a 9 bet losing streak and edge me closer to the black. Just had time to look at one race tomorrow: Wed 16th Jan 2013 3.10 Lingfield (8 runners) Breathe Spa At Lingfield Marriott Handicap Class 5, 5f , Standard, 4yo+, Win: £2727 1) THE STRIG (74) - Winner LTO off 70 over 6f. Back down to 5f on the AW for first time since back end of 2011 when won at Kempton off 64. Would need career best effort to win off 74 but trainer form and trainer/jockey combo a positive. 2) ROYS LEGACY (74) - Upped in grade LTO and finished 3/8 at Kempton. Back down to a class where awas succesful on penultimate start over C&D off 71. Like THE STRIG, if winning will defy career high mark. 3) QUALITY ART (72) - 2L behind ROY'S LEGACY LTO and now 3lb worse off. Hard to see how he can reverse that today, unless bouncing back to 2011 form which seems unlikely. 4) FOXTROT INDIA (70) Not seen since the summer when last of ten over 6f herre. Won a maiden at Goodwood on debut but then only beaten 5/51 rivals home in subsequent 6 starts. Impossible to back. 5) BILLY RED (69) - Beaten by a Short head by ROYS LEGACY twice, including LTO, 1lb better off today. On a winnable mark and could capitalise. 6) AMENABLE (68) - Won a Cl4 handicape back in 2010 off 77 but struggled on the AW since then in claimers and sellers. Discounted. 7) PETER ISLAND (66) - Off course for 121 days and all 3 wins on the AW have come at 6f. Pointers (0/10 left handed, 0/7 at Lingfield) suggest he won't be getting his head in front today, despite jockey's claim and very winnable mark. 8) PICANSORT (66) - Last seen 4 days ago when finishing 2nd round here over 6f and on the same mark. Hood which was worn for last two has now been dispensed with and blinkers are tried for the first time. Winless streak stretches back 20 races and seems to always find one too good. ============== Very tough to split ROYS LEGACY and BILLY RED who subsequently both get a point each. Slight preference is for BILLY RED who seems weighted to reverse LTO form with ROYS LEGACY. ROYS LEGACY 1pt WIN @ 7/2 BILLY RED 1pt WIN @ 4/1

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 BILLY RED has drifted massively since lats night, but still can't help but fancy his chances, so have had 1pt for him to place @ 6/4.

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Disappointing afternoon really but we live to fight another day. [TABLE=width: 233]

[TR] [TD]Bets[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Winners (Win & E/W)[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Placed (E/W)[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Total Staked (pts)[/TD] [TD]33.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Overall P/L (pts)[/TD] [TD]-11.2[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Just the one bet tomorrow as it stands, not got time to do a proper write but AUBRIETIA in the 4.30 at Wolverhampton looks to have an absolutely spanking chance. Back down in grade after just getting pipped on the line here 4 days ago, same mark today and looks to have everything going for her. AUBRIETIA 4pt WIN @ 11/8

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Aubrietia just about did the business to land the biggest bet of the year so far. I'm hoping the 'all weather' meetings are on tomorrow, Saturday's without some losing bets just aren't Saturday. ;) Sat 19th Jan 2013 2.20 Kempton (9 runners) William Hill - iPad App Now Available Handicap Class 4, 1m , Standard, 4yo+, Win: £5175 1) ANGELIC UPSTART (77) - 3 wins on the All Weather, the latest coming off 75 at Wolverhampton in a similar event. Has been running OK since then and claimer who takes off 7lbs gives him a chance. 2) ALS MEMORY (77) - On hat-trick know after two wins at Lingfield. This seems much harder now no claimer up on board and up another 3lbs. 0/4 at this grade and not won past 7f. 3) LIGHT FROM MARS (77) - Good 2nd 4 days ago over 7f at Wolverhampton. Consistent performer but usually finds one too good at this level. 4) RED SOMERSET (77) - Been running well in sellers/claimers recently. Excuse can be made for latest but difficult to fancy. 5) HAFTOHAF (75) - Just the 4 races under his belt and gone off favourite each time, winning twice. Off same mark as LTO when 3rd in a similar event at Wolves. 6) AVERTIS (74) - On hattrick but has won 1/13 at this level and that was on the turf. 7) TOGA TIGER (72) - Won 4 out of last 5 starts, on various surfaces over 7 and 8 furlongs. Need to improve to take this though. 8) DIPLOMATIC (68) - Cheekpieces reapplied today but they need to work wonders for him to figure here. Last at 50/1 LTO, claimer a help, but more needed. 9) STORM RUNNER (67) - Running well of late but like many of the others, needs to improve to take this. ========================= Few with chances in this but preference is for top weight ANGELIC UPSTART who fared well when 3/10 on penultimate start. With claimer on board now he takes a very nice drop in the weights and is effectively 5lb lower than last winning mark. ANGELIC UPSTART 2pt WIN @ 9/2 (BOG)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Peacock's Punting 2013 Sat 19th Jan 2013 2.55 Kempton (7 runners) William Hill - iPhone, iPad, iPad Mini Handicap (London Middle Distance Qualifier) Class 3, 1m3f , Standard, 4yo+, Win: £7763 1) SPIFER (85) - Disappointing LTO and yet to get head in front in a handicap. First attempt at 1m3f which may suit, but hard to support with any authority. 2) GREYLAMI (85) - Not won since July 2010. Ryan Tate takes 7lb off but probably needs even more. 3) FLUCTUATE (88) - John Gosden trained, lightly raced type who was last seen back in August when 3/6 in a C2 at Newmarket. Has improved for each run and furhter progress needed. 4) GAELIC SILVER (85) - On the AW after 5 national hunt runs in the UK. Hard to assess and best left alone for me. 5) AQUILONIUS (85) - All 4 career wins have been at 1m and looks high enough in the weights. 6) KAMES PARK (81) - Dropped down to a Cl6 for LTO win, in rude form but this looks too tough. 7) NOBLE SILK (83) Consistent sort who seems to be improving. Distance looks ideal. Chance. ============ Gosden's FLUCTUATE could be better than this and if fit from a break and responding to blinkers, should have a very good chance against some more exposed rivals. NOBLE SILK is my idea of the danger. FLUCTUATE 2pt WIN @ 11/4 (BOG)