Dubai Carnival

[cpo]

Re: Dubai Carnival I think I will be looking to take on Soft Falling Rain in the Godolphin Mile. Yes he is unbeaten in his career thus far and has won twice at Meydan already but the form of his 2 wins are nothing special. He has been winning pretty comfortably but the opposition has been weak (rated in 80's and 90's). This is a completely different ball game and I don't think 2nd best in the market should be twice as big as him. I quite like the look of Surfer dropping back in trip. He has returned this year better than ever winning easily over 8f and 7f before finding the Dubai World Cup favourite too strong over 10f. Given how well he has ran on both starts over 10f behind Hunter's Light, I think the step back in trip here against easier opposition will suit him. 12/1 is his current price which I think is fair. Godolphin have a great record in this race but I don't think they have a likely winner in the line up. African Story would have been their main hope but he is giving the big one a go so it's left to the like of Moonwalk in Paris, Alpha and Time Prisoner. Moonwalk in Paris looks the most likely winner of them 3 and he probably would have a chance if held up rather than ridden more prominently like last time out.

[smith17]

Re: Dubai Carnival 1.10 Meydan: Pentitent, 9/1 Betfred, win Pentitent is having his first run since last October when he finished second in a group 1 at Longchamp. He has won fto twice before, including the Lincoln in 2010, so that shouldn't be a problem. This is his first run on tepeta but he has one win and two seconds from four runs on a/w surfaces and his trainer has been positive about the ground so hopefully he will take to it. Jockey Daniel Tudhope has won on this horse three times from seven rides and travels to Dubai for this one ride. 1.45 Meydan: Verema, 11/1 Bet365, win Verema is having her first run since last October. She finished fifth in a group 1 over today's distance at Longchamp. The ground that day was heavy which didn't really suit and today's ground will see a much improved run from her. She won a group 3 in September on good ground over 15f. She gets four pounds from market leader Imperial Monarch and ten pounds from her other two main rivals Saddler's Rock and Cavalryman. Top class jockey Christophe Lemaire is in the saddle. He has ridden her for both of her wins. 2.25 Meydan: Shuruq, 8/1 BetVictor, win Shuruq won the group 3 UAE Oaks lto over c&d. She tracked the leaders and got to the lead about 2½L out. She finished well and won by 4L. That was her first start over today's distance and she should improve again. The biggest dangers imo are the other two Godolphin horses. Seceret Number won a listed race in his second start and could be anything which could also be said about Now Spun who won a listed race in his third start. Shuruq gets four pounds from both of them and I'm willing to stick with the Godolphin third string. Paul Hanagan keeps the ride having been on board lto. 3.05 Meydan: Joy And Fun, 14/1 Paddy Power, e/w w/o fav Joy And Fun has a good record at Meydan. He won this race in 2010 and finished third last year. Lto he finished eigth of nine in a group 1 in Hong Kong. He ran quite well bbut just faded in the last ½f so the drop back to the minimum trip will suit. The favourite looks pretty solid and with PP offering 3 places w/o I'm pretty confident he can run into a place. Jockey Tye Angland was champion apprentice in Sydney in 2006 and has ridden over 400 winners in his short career so far. 3.45 Meydan: Trinniberg, 8/1 BetVictor, win Trinniberg won the Breeders Cup Sprint lto. Although he only won by ¾L, he was never going to be beaten and it was an impressive run. That was back in November but he has won fto, a 6L win in a group 3, before so it shouldn't be a problem. This is his first run on tepeta but the trainer and jockey have been very positive about the ground so it should suit. 4.40 Meydan: Sajjhaa, 8/1 Paddy Power, win Sajjhaa has been in great form this year. She has won two group 2s and a group 1 lto. She won the first of those group 2s over a mile impressively by 3¾L. She then stepped up in trip to today's distance when she won the second group 2. She was in mid-division and got to the lead over 2f out. She finished strongly and won comfortably by a length. The form of both races hasn't really worked out well but the manner of victory was impressive. Lto she won a group 1 over c&d. She tracked the leaders and she quickened nicely over a furlong out. She got to the lead close home and won by ¾L from the re-opposing The Apache with City Style and Igugu further behind. Silvestre De Sousa is in the saddle. 6.05 Meydan: Royal Delta, 11/2 Coral, win Royal Delta is a two-time Breeders Cup winner. She won a group 3 incredibly easily lto when she made most and, when still on the bridle, she eased clear to win by 5L. That should have put her in top condition for this and she should be involved in the finish in a very competitive race. She was unlucky in this race last year. She was going well when she was badly hampered about 3f out and couldn't recover. American Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith is in the saddle.

[cpo]

Re: Dubai Carnival 1.10 Meydan Surfer 2pts win @ 8/1 BetVictor Surfer has a massive chance here having been mixing it with the current Dubai World Cup favourite in his 2 most recent starts. He has certainly not been disgraced finished 2^nd and 4^th behind Hunter’s Light and the drop back in trip here looks a good move. He is well drawn in 6, whereas the favourite is out wide in 13. He is a CD winner and has been in the form of his life this year. Godolphin have a great record in this race and their runners must be feared but Surfer will do for me in what looks a tricky opener. 1.45 Meydan Imperial Monarch 3pts win @ 5/2 Hills Aiden O’Brien sends his strongest ever team to Dubai this year and I fancy this one is the most likely to give him success along with St Nic. To me this test of stamina is what this horse needs and he gets it for the first time today at Meydan. He was top class last year winning a group 3 at Sandown before going on to win the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp. He was found wanting at Woodbine but shaped as if in need of a longer trip, which he gets today. He is the strong favourite here against some very classy stayers but he himself could easily turn out to be a future Ascot Gold Cup horse. Ryan Moore takes the ride, which is a positive, and I reckon he will be very tough to beat. This will probably be the quickest ground he has encountered but I don’t see it being a problem. He raced on good to soft at Chantilly in the Prix de Jockey Club where he was desperately unlucky and he also raced on good ground at Woodbine. Horses by Galileo pretty much go on any ground so fingers crossed for a big run. I think it would be great for racing if Aiden O’Brien were to have a winner on Dubai World Cup night. 2.25 Meydan Snowboarder 0.5pt EW @ 33/1 Blue Square I do like the favourite Secret Number but at 2/1 he is far too short. Snowboarder for me is a huge price considering he was just 3 lengths behind the winner last time out and was unsuited by the very slow gallop. The jockey also eased up on him near the finish and he didn’t get the clearest of runs throughout the race. He is available at 33/1 in some places, which IMO is far too big. If this horse gets a good gallop to aim at then I can easily see him being in the mix. His run 2 starts ago behind Soft Falling Rain was a good one and I am going to back him to nick a place. He doesn’t have the best of draws in 11 but Willium Buick takes the ride and I would expect him to drop him out at the back. If they go slow up front again then he won’t stand much chance of winning this one as he doesn’t have an instant turn of foot like some of these. A fast gallop will certainly bring him into the equation. 3.05 Meydan Shea Shea 4.40 Meydan Giofra 1pt EW @ 9/1 PaddyPower (taken earlier in the week) One horse that really catches my eye for the Dubai Duty Free is the French trained Giofra. Currently best price 9/1 with Paddy Power and as low as 5/1 with others. This horse was top class last year winning the Falmouth and then finishing placed in a further 2 group 1 events. She proved she can travel the globe and still run well when finishing 2nd to California Memory at Sha Tin. She goes well fresh and she could prove tough to beat here. Looking at the race, the current favourite is a horse from New Zealand whose form can't possibly be weighed up. I very much doubt group 1 level in New Zealand is anything like as competitive as Europe. Trade Storm is also right up there at the top of the market but even though he has won a group 2 at Meydan, I still doubt whether he is good enough to win this. Little Mike is intriguing from USA but I see Sajjhaa as the main danger after a good win last time out. Still I think Giofra at 9/1 is a cracking each way bet and I have had a nice little bet on her. 5.20 Meydan Gentildonna Won’t be having a bet in the race but I really like the Japanese horse. She beat Orfevre last time out despite not getting the best of runs through and she could be very special. 6.05 Meydan Kassiano 2pts EW @ 16/1 Bet365 Monterosso is out of the race now but I don’t think he would have challenged anyway. Hunter’s Light does look very solid to me and I did back him last time out along with my selection but I fancy Kassiano to reverse the form. Kassiano started the season off in handicaps and would become the first horse ever to go on to win the Dubai World Cup after starting that season in handicaps. I have actually backed him every start this year so he has done me plenty of favours having never lost money on the horse in 5 starts. Last time out was the race that showed this horse can certainly place in the big race at the very least as he had to wait for a run behind Hunter’s Light before finishing best of all to grab 2^nd. There were fewer than 3 lengths between himself and the winner at the finish and I would expect him to get much closer tonight. Kassiano was even stopped in his run in the final 1.5f and had to switch around a rival, which will have cost him plenty of ground. We have seen all season that this horse possesses a great turn of foot on this surface and if he gets a clear run through then he could prove very tough to fend off at the finish. He will need them to go a good pace up front as he has a poor draw so will have to come right from the back but I very confident over this horses chances today. I still don’t think we have seen the best of him and he could give William Buick his biggest ever payday. The American challenge this year looks very strong and it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if one of them got the win but I prefer the claims of the Godolphin horses and in particular Kassiano.

[robertob]

Re: Dubai Carnival A couple of selections for me on this big day just out of pure interest and joy for the sport and also rather a fan perspective than serious financial interest: 13.10: Soft Falling Rain @ 7/2 Pady Power - Landed with a big reputation in Dubai as South Africa's leading 2yo and enhanced his credentials with two excellent efforts. Proved class on surface and distance, steps up in class and takes on older horses for the first time today though. So tough task ahead but think he could be a special horse, has loads of talent and can't look past him. Hope he'll defend his unbeaten record in good style today. 13.45: Saddler's Rock @ 11/2 Boylesports - Bit frustrating in the recent twelve month but had often enough conditions against him. Surly a very capable stayer, should improve for his pre run here at Meydan and will relish the good ground. John Oxx spoke very positive about him earlier this week so I don't see a reason why he shouldn't run a good race and give the short priced favourite a run for the money. 15.05: Starspangledbanner e/w @ 25/1 William Hill - Probably not anymore the old force but showed with a very good effort at Santa Anita that the sparkle and speed is still there. This 5f trip and the good ground should definitely suit. He might be now better settled back in training as well and would expect him to outran his price. 16.40: Igugu e/w @ 16/1 Ladbrokes - Of course I keep faith in my beloved Igugu. She didn't run as everyone expected her to do since arriving at Dubai. We know there are valid reasons for this though, as for example she wasn't easy to train having her mind rather on the colts than on racing (recommend this article re this issue: http://mikedekockracing.com/wp/index.php/2013/03/igugu-mikes-perspective-2/). There is no doubt that if she can bounce back to form that she'll go very close here. She has a decent enough draw, Delpech who knows her best is on board, and De Kock always said today is the target. So I firmly hope we see her at her best today. 17.20: St Nicholas Abbey @ 7/2 StanJames - The favourite looks an amazing horse, a wonderful filly and deservedly the favourite, too short in price for me though. I stick with the senior St Nicholas Abbey. He finished runners-up in this race last year, ran the whole last season as consistent as ever proving he is still a proper Group 1 horse. I admire him for this consistency showed over the years and back over his preferred trip it takes a really, really good horse to beat him. If the favourite is this horse then so it be. But first they have to run the race. 18.05: Animal Kingdom @ 11/2 Bet365 - The Kentucky Derby winner of 2011 has some good form to offer on synthetic surface so there won't be an issue with the Meydan All-Weather track today. He should be primed for the race, he had a decent enough prep back home in the US and before that he was so impressive in the Breeders Cup mile when barley coming off the bridle, finishing really strongly but having been a bit unlucky too yet finishing 2nd to Wise Dan beating Excelebration that day. He's a top class horse and capable of winning this race.

[egg]

Re: Dubai Carnival Ive backed Penitent in the mile race as he goes well fresh and looks a fair enough price, not drawn ideal though. Hunters Light is my other selection as he's drawn well and unbeaten on synthetics, fair price too I feel. Also got a lucky 15 on : Hunters Light, Mental, Secret Number and Trade Storm

[robertob]

Re: Dubai Carnival What a monster performance by Soft Falling Rain. Had absolutely everything against himself from the earliest part of the race on... WOW!

[Norton's Coin]

Re: Dubai Carnival

What a monster performance by Soft Falling Rain. Had absolutely everything against himself from the earliest part of the race on... WOW!

Fully agree,That was one hell of performance given how he had everything against him turning for home.

[Chaostheorie]

Re: Dubai Carnival great performance. lt would be great to see him at Royal Ascot.

[robertob]

Re: Dubai Carnival De Kock said he's off to Europe now, Royal Ascot is pretty much on the cards, but then probably in the sprint races: "I believe he's very effective over the shorter distances." Edit: Found this qoute: "He will go to Royal Ascot and will enter him in the Queen Anne Stakes and the Diamond Jubilee Stakes."

[Primevil]

Re: Dubai Carnival 4.40 MEYDAN..LITTLE MIKE..8/1 Why such a big price, ill tell you fallon, see his ride last time. Gary stevens will ride a cosy race on him today, i expect him to kick in the straight and show his class..8/1 is an outstanding price.:ok

[Chaostheorie]

Re: Dubai Carnival great race from Sajjhaa. She should have been the favourite. Broke the track record in the Balanchine.

[Norton's Coin]

Re: Dubai Carnival 2 for de kock 2 for ap 2 for saeed The last of the day and my instict tells me its capponi for the home trainer/jockey combo. Zarooni horses has been running well first up in this carnival and this ran a mighty second last year. A big ask to run first up and win such a race but i guess 23/1 in the exchanges is quite a big price. Also done a place at 6/1 for this one to keep me interested in this race.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dubai Carnival Thrown a little bit on Meandre @ 22s. Probably asking too much but if they go a good gallop that will really help. Usually needs seasonal reappearance so forgiven last time over a mile. Ground too soft in the Arc but decent form before that. Can get a shock in this race so fingers crossed he goes well.

[cpo]

Re: Dubai Carnival Cracking run from Red Cadeaux there... 1.2million ain't bad for 2nd place

[robertob]

Re: Dubai Carnival

13.10: Soft Falling Rain @ 7/2 Pady Power - Landed with a big reputation in Dubai as South Africa's leading 2yo and enhanced his credentials with two excellent efforts. Proved class on surface and distance, steps up in class and takes on older horses for the first time today though. So tough task ahead but think he could be a special horse, has loads of talent and can't look past him. Hope he'll defend his unbeaten record in good style today. 13.45: Saddler's Rock @ 11/2 Boylesports - Bit frustrating in the recent twelve month but had often enough conditions against him. Surly a very capable stayer, should improve for his pre run here at Meydan and will relish the good ground. John Oxx spoke very positive about him earlier this week so I don't see a reason why he shouldn't run a good race and give the short priced favourite a run for the money. 15.05: Starspangledbanner e/w @ 25/1 William Hill - Probably not anymore the old force but showed with a very good effort at Santa Anita that the sparkle and speed is still there. This 5f trip and the good ground should definitely suit. He might be now better settled back in training as well and would expect him to outran his price. 16.40: Igugu e/w @ 16/1 Ladbrokes - Of course I keep faith in my beloved Igugu. She didn't run as everyone expected her to do since arriving at Dubai. We know there are valid reasons for this though, as for example she wasn't easy to train having her mind rather on the colts than on racing (recommend this article re this issue: http://mikedekockracing.com/wp/index.php/2013/03/igugu-mikes-perspective-2/). There is no doubt that if she can bounce back to form that she'll go very close here. She has a decent enough draw, Delpech who knows her best is on board, and De Kock always said today is the target. So I firmly hope we see her at her best today. 17.20: St Nicholas Abbey @ 7/2 StanJames - The favourite looks an amazing horse, a wonderful filly and deservedly the favourite, too short in price for me though. I stick with the senior St Nicholas Abbey. He finished runners-up in this race last year, ran the whole last season as consistent as ever proving he is still a proper Group 1 horse. I admire him for this consistency showed over the years and back over his preferred trip it takes a really, really good horse to beat him. If the favourite is this horse then so it be. But first they have to run the race. 18.05: Animal Kingdom @ 11/2 Bet365 - The Kentucky Derby winner of 2011 has some good form to offer on synthetic surface so there won't be an issue with the Meydan All-Weather track today. He should be primed for the race, he had a decent enough prep back home in the US and before that he was so impressive in the Breeders Cup mile when barley coming off the bridle, finishing really strongly but having been a bit unlucky too yet finishing 2nd to Wise Dan beating Excelebration that day. He's a top class horse and capable of winning this race.

3 winners today! Can't complain too much I suppose, even though Saddler's Rock was unlucky thanks to a slipping saddle. Starspangledbanner had no chance, Igugu is still not the horse she used to be, but the day kicked off so well with Soft Falling Rain, St Nic won very well too and Animal Kingdom dominated the World Cup! So overall a wonderful World Cup day.

[cpo]

Re: Dubai Carnival Well done mate and Smith :ok Animal Kingdom was an impressive winner and definitely a worthy winner that gives the race some substance.

[The Saint]

Re: Dubai Carnival Red Cadeaux, Side Glance & Plantuer all fighting out the places..... We have been spolied by Frankel... Not gennuine Group One performers for me and whilst you'd have to take your hat off to connections and congratulate them on a job well done, I for one will be waiting for the form of that race to be franked before paying it too much attention!! Well done to anyone on the Winner... And well done to Ladcrooks who must have cleaned up offering Hunters Light at 5/1. They were actually taking some lumpy bets this morning :ok