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Dubai Carnival


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Re: Dubai Carnival

3.55 MEYDAN..UAE 2000 GUINEAS. Soft Falling Rain. 11/10
>Paddy Power
.
One of the best potential horses to grace the UAE steps up tomorrow. Hitting the track standard last time, in a very easy manor. He does stand out as a 5 star bet for me. We are getting evens or a little bigger due to the inconclusive issue about the extra furlong. I guess PH has never say on a better one in his carear. On his dams side there are plenty of mile and mile plus wininng form, and even on the sires side we tend to think sprinter, but again, there is plenty of mile winning form. He will go from the front or near to it again, but he will produce a mid race time between 4 out and 1 out that the others just wont be able to live with. I know the 2nd fav has decent form from the states, but he still has not done it at this level, he has only placed or just out the places. A good thing as i have seen for a long time, at a superb price.
My biggest bet of the year so far riding here, I am very confident.

We never had a moments worry here, easing down to a 2 1/4 l win,clipping a 1.36 and change, just slightly over standard. Matching (give or take ) the group 3 after this race, for more experienced horses. He has a group 1 in him, not sure its going to be the UAE DERBY...mmm will he stay the extra 2? They may dodge this, but for sure there are exciting races ahead in the summer in europe for him, must be rated low 120;s now and improving all the time....The mile division without a frankel on the scene could be all before him. He has big boots to fill, but he is a class horse, that we aint heard the last of. "the best i have ridden" PH.
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Re: Dubai Carnival Another great day at Meydan coming up. 2.45 ARAB bred horses. NO BET 3.15 So Beuatiful Paul Hanagan 13/2 most places. Bought out of france after dotting up in a G3 in france, was no match for the very good sharestan, who is G1 rated in a conditions event here, but still finished a decent second, since then ran twice in G2's without really being asked in the race, steps into a handicap here, but gets in lightly on his best,

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Re: Dubai Carnival Almost time for Igugu! Can't wait. Just hope she's fit and well after the long break and wins the race in a way she is entitled to do. Absolutely love this filly, she's a complete superstar. Not bothered with the betting here but some horses are just special and make this sport so unique. She is so tough and brave and hopefully will show a glimpse of what makes her such a popular horse in South Africa. De Kock said he is happy with her, so let's trust the man who knows best. 363549465_640.jpg

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Re: Dubai Carnival two 2nds so far..6/1 n 11/1 sp. 4.25. IGUGU, is a very good filly. Prohibitable odds but I dont see anthing troubling her. She is as good a thing as you will see for a 8/13 shot, as a proven G1 performer, she is the only 1 in here, Sajjhaa is a G2 winner, but really should be filling second, I see this as the fc, and Sajjhaa trying to nick it early in the straight, but the M D K filly getting past in the last furlong. Straight win IGUGU and FC with Sajjhaa. The fc should pay around 6/4.

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Re: Dubai Carnival

IGUGU...went off to early' date=' needed the race....no wonder CORALS went 5/4...this morning they knew. A track record was broken here.[/quote'] Pretty disappointing Igugu, but in all fairness she's been off the track for more than a year and Soumillon went a brutal pace. She'll come on a lot for this run, no doubt. Hats off Sajjhaa though, great performance. Found this interesting little fact on twitter: @TrakusRacing: "Igugu's 6F time was faster than the same split in 38/48 races at 1400m on AW at MEY since Nov 2010. Of course, the Balanchine was 1800m."
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Re: Dubai Carnival 6.10 MEYDAN INVINCABLE ASH 9/1 HILLS. Well for a long time i have been touting Marc Monaghan. He will be champion Jockey in the next 6 years. And after being in meydan for a few months and riding a few tasty priced winners for me, he gets on one for his boss ,,,Mick Halford for the first time this year. His 7lb claim runs out after 1 more winner, and even now his 7 is worth a stone to some others imo. The horse beat sole power last year recieving 5lb over CD, he really is well in tonight plus the excellent riders 7lb. He has pace all around him to run at here, see's the 5f on turf out realy well, I just see him being right on song to do the business here tonight. WIN bet with confidence for me.

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Re: Dubai Carnival 3.20 Meydan: United Color, 10/1 , win United Color finished third lto over today's distance on the dirt track at Jebel Ali. He runs from a one pound lower mark today. This is his first run on tapeta but if he takes to the surface he should go close. This is his fourth run this season so he should be in top condition for this. In his first run this season he was beaten by just a short head by Russian Rock, who has won again since, as did the third placed horse. Trainer Dhruba Selvaratnam is in decent form with 2 winners and 5 places from 12 runners over the last two weeks. Jockey James Doyle, who was on board for 11 of those 12 runs, is in the saddle. 3.55 Meydan: Luhaif, 13/2 Paddy Power, win Luhaif finished third in the trial for this lto. He was 3L behind the re-opposing Elleval but I think today's smaller field race could be run to suit my selection. He is the only definite frontrunner in the field (Deauville Prince has in the past) so he could get an easy lead. He steps up to a mile today and it should suit. He has run over today's distance once before when he was beaten by just ¼L and he is closely related to 9f group 3 winner Charlie Farnsbarns. Jockey Martin Harley is in good form, with 3 winners and 4 places from 11 rides in the last fortnight. 4.30 Meydan: Amanee, 4/1 Paddy Power, win Amanee finished second in a group 2 lto. He finished 3¾L behind the progressive Sajjhaa who won another group 2 nto. This is his first run on tepeta but his sire's offspring have a good record on all weather surfaces so it should suit. Mike De Kock is in good form, with 3 winners from 15 runners over the last two weeks. The top class Christophe Soumillon is in the saddle. 5.05 Meydan: Shuruq, 11/2 Paddy Power, win Shuruq finished second in the 1000 Guineas lto when all of today's field also ran. He was ½L behind Lovely Pass. He steps up in trip by 1½ furlongs which should suit as he was finishing strongly lto. He is Godolphin's third string here going on cap colors but Lovely Pass was wearing the red cap in the guineas and it won. The in-form Paul Hanagan takes over from Silvestre De Sousa in the saddle and that is a plus for me.

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Re: Dubai Carnival

3.20 Meydan: United Color' date= 10/1 , win United Color finished third lto over today's distance on the dirt track at Jebel Ali. He runs from a one pound lower mark today. This is his first run on tapeta but if he takes to the surface he should go close. This is his fourth run this season so he should be in top condition for this. In his first run this season he was beaten by just a short head by Russian Rock, who has won again since, as did the third placed horse. Trainer Dhruba Selvaratnam is in decent form with 2 winners and 5 places from 12 runners over the last two weeks. Jockey James Doyle, who was on board for 11 of those 12 runs, is in the saddle. 3.55 Meydan: Luhaif, 13/2 Paddy Power, win Luhaif finished third in the trial for this lto. He was 3L behind the re-opposing Elleval but I think today's smaller field race could be run to suit my selection. He is the only definite frontrunner in the field (Deauville Prince has in the past) so he could get an easy lead. He steps up to a mile today and it should suit. He has run over today's distance once before when he was beaten by just ¼L and he is closely related to 9f group 3 winner Charlie Farnsbarns. Jockey Martin Harley is in good form, with 3 winners and 4 places from 11 rides in the last fortnight. 4.30 Meydan: Amanee, 4/1 Paddy Power, win Amanee finished second in a group 2 lto. He finished 3¾L behind the progressive Sajjhaa who won another group 2 nto. This is his first run on tepeta but his sire's offspring have a good record on all weather surfaces so it should suit. Mike De Kock is in good form, with 3 winners from 15 runners over the last two weeks. The top class Christophe Soumillon is in the saddle. 5.05 Meydan: Shuruq, 11/2 Paddy Power, win Shuruq finished second in the 1000 Guineas lto when all of today's field also ran. He was ½L behind Lovely Pass. He steps up in trip by 1½ furlongs which should suit as he was finishing strongly lto. He is Godolphin's third string here going on cap colors but Lovely Pass was wearing the red cap in the guineas and it won. The in-form Paul Hanagan takes over from Silvestre De Sousa in the saddle and that is a plus for me.
Nice start........10/1,,L15 already payed for, gl with the others
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Re: Dubai Carnival 2.50 Meydan Tamaathul Willing to forgive his latest run where he was very poorly drawn and had to cover much more ground than those that finished ahead of him. He won very nicely 2 runs ago over this CD and he can go close tomorrow now drawn much better. Stable continue in good form and this horse can improve again and win off his new mark. 4.00 Meydan Certerach Backed this one last time out when he finished a very close up 3rd. He is sill unexposed over this trip and he should go well again. Jamie Spencer takes the ride tomorrow which for me is a positive. I wouldn't expect there to be much again between the horses that filled the first 3 places in my selections last run but I am hopeful Spencer can make the difference. 4.35 Meydan Con Artist He isn't well drawn for a horse that like to front run but there isn't anything in the race that looks a likely front runner so I would hope Ryan Moore can get him to the front. He might just get his own way in front in this which will make him hard to beat. He won well last time out by 3 lengths and I believe he can follow up. Art Scholar certainly has a big win in him but he will need a good pace to run at which I don't think he will get here. 5.10 Meydan Don't Call Me Going to take a chance on the Nicholls runner here. It's about time this horse got a change of luck and a good ride. Hopefully that day will be tomorrow. He has looked very unlucky on a few occasions so far in Dubai, including last time out in group 2 company. He may not have been good enough to trouble the easy winner but he certainly would have been fighting it out with the placed horses. He is acclimatised well to racing in Dubai and Nicholls does do well with his runners over there. This one looks as though he has a big race in him and if they go quick up front, expect to see this one finished best of all. He might be worth a bet at decent odds. 8 go to post so at 12/1 he looks a good each way bet IMO. Not so many runners so hopefully the jockey can keep him out of trouble.

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Re: Dubai Carnival Bit pushed for time so have to keep it even shorter than usual. 14.50 Meydan: Ballista, 10/1 Ladbrokes, win Ballista has had two runs so far this year so should be near his peak for today. He could get an easy lead and if he does the field could struggle to reel him in. Trainer Tom Dascombe had two places from his two runners here on Thursday and his usual jockey Richard Kingscote is in the saddle. 15.25 Meydan: Rerouted, 7/2 Ladbrokes, win Rerouted ran well lto when he finished fourth in a similar class of race. That was over 9f and he drops back to 7f today. He won over c&d two runs ago. That was his second run on tepeta so he could improve a bit on that. Mike De Kock is in good form and the top class Christophe Soumillon is in the saddle. 16.00 Meydan: Star Empire, 6/1 Bet365, win Star Empire won lto over c&d. He steps up in class to group 3 level for the first time but this is just his third run after a near two year break and he should come on a bit for his last run. He has a good draw in stall 1 and he should go close today. Mike De Kock is in good form and the top class Christophe Soumillon is in the saddle. 16.35 Meydan: Out Of Bounds, 7/1 Bet365, win Out Of Bounds finished second in a group 2 in his first start in a year. He then disappointed lto in a group 3 and he drops back to a handicap today. He steps up in trip to 10f which should suit as he finished quite strongly in that group 2. This is just his third run for the in form Saeed Bin Suroor having moved from America, where he won a group 3 over a mile when he finished strongly, which would again suggest the step up in trip would suit. Keiran Fallon is a big plus in the saddle. 17.10 Meydan: Fulbright, 4/1 Betfred, win Fulbright finished second in a group 3 lto on the tepeta over today's distance. Before that he finished third in a group 2 again over today's distance on the tepeta. That was his first start since October, when he won a group 2 at Newmarket. He returns to turf today which is a plus as all of his wins have been on turf. This is his third run for the in form Saeed Bin Suroor. Mikael Barzalona is in the saddle.

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Re: Dubai Carnival Big meeting on Saturday with first group 1's of the carnival being run. After glancing at the card I can see 3 horses I will be backing in Krypton Factor, Hunter's Light and Sharestan. Will have a proper look on Friday

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Re: Dubai Carnival 1.05 Meydan Snowboarder win Plenty of these are trying this trip for the first time and there has to be doubts over a few of these as to whether it will suit or not. For me the most interesting horses in the race are snowboarder and Secret Number. Secret Number won his only start at Kempton getting up late in the day over a mile to suggest this trip will suit. He hasn’t been seen for 136 days but could be anything. He looks the main danger to my selection but I think Snowboarder should prove tough to beat in this. He has race fitness on his side and ran a very encouraging race behind Soft Falling Rain last time out in a group 3. He ran on well at the finish to grab 2nd and looks as though a step up in trip will suit. The winner that day is potentially very smart so this was a good effort. Mickael Barzalona takes the ride and he is well drawn in 4. He looks to have every chance in this of going one better. 1.40 Meydan Shea Shea win This is a very tricky race to sort out as plenty of these are having their first run for some time. Sole Power would probably be the selection had this been his 2nd run back from a break. He did just about everything but win in this last year on his reappearance and the trainer has already stated he will come on for the run. Other very interesting horses having their first runs after a break are Spirit Quartz and Monsieur Joe. Both are extremely talented but may come on for the run. I also don’t think the race will be run to suit the hold up types such as Invincible Ash, Dandy Boy and Medicean Man which leaves me with the Mike de Kock horse Shea Shea. This horse is a group 1 winner and comes here on the back of a decent enough return to action. Trainer believes he has improved several lengths since that run and he will be up in the van throughout which for me will be the best place to be. Expect plenty of trouble in running for some of these. Shea Shea might not be much of a price but I think he is the most likely winner of this race. 2.15 Meydan Krypton Factor win This horse will be very tough to beat here after running a very promising race last time out on his return to action. He warmed up for last years big sprint by winning this race comfortably and I expect the same result here. He is well drawn in 2 and Fallon takes the ride. The 2 that finished in front of him last time out are Mental who is a group 1 winner from Australia and Kavanagh who has since come out and bolted up in a handicap off 112. With that run under his belt Krypton Factor should take all the beating here. 2.50 Meydan Await the Dawn win Not entirely sure if I am going to have a bet in this race. I see it as a toss up between Await the Dawn and Masterstroke. Await the Dawn has fitness on his side and looked right back to his best last time out when winning very easily over 10f at this track. This is obviously a step up in grade but that will pose no problems for him as had previously shown very high-class form when trained in Ireland. Masterstroke had a cracking season last year and finished a good 3rd in the Arc. He has handled good ground in the past and should improve again this year now under the tutelage of Al Zarooni. The doubt with him is whether he will be ready to go first time up. For that reason I am probably leaning towards Await the Dawn but I will see what happens tomorrow with my earlier bets before backing him. 3.25 Meydan African Story win This horse should be 4 from 4 at this track as he was unlucky on his 2nd start here last year when finishing 3rd behind Sandagiyr. He would have won that day with a clear run. The absence isn’t a worry as he won over 7f here on his return to action last year beting Barbecue Eddie. He then went on to win twice over this CD in group 3 and group 2 company, both times by 4 lengths. His last win over CD 2 starts ago off a mark of 117. He is rated 3lbs higher for this tomorrow but the manner of his victory would suggest he could carry on improving on this surface. He is the choice of Mickael Barzalona and he has a nice draw in 5. If he is close to full fitness, he will prove very tough to beat. 4.00 Meydan Kassiano EW & Hunters Light win This is the first group 1 of the carnival and what a race in prospect! Little Mike is massively interesting from the 1 box and with Fallon on board but he I returning from 126 days off the track and might just need this race. Monterosso should need the run here but it’s his stablemates that I am interested in. Firstly Kassiano who is a horse I have backed a couple of times already this year. He is improving with every run and demolished a handicap field last time out by 6 lengths off a mark of 106. He is now up to a mark of 113 and there is every chance he can improve again. The only drawback with this horse is his draw but he does like to be held up so I don’t think it matters so much. He will need luck in running but he should go well if he gets it. Hunter’s Light is the other one I am interested in who won very easily last time out. I backed him that day and he is another horse that looks to be improving with every run. He is a group 1 winner already and is well drawn again to take up a good position in the race. I don’t think he will get it all his own way however but he should prove very tough to beat with race fitness on his side. At the current prices I think I would be tempted to back Kassiano each way rather than back the favourite to win. Trailblazer is interesting coming over from Japan but I feel bigger targets await for him and I am not convinced he will be 100% for this. 4.35 Meydan Sharestan win Since this horse made a winning start for connections, I have felt he will go on to win the Dubai Duty Free. He faces a very good field here but I am surprised he is as big as 4/1. I think it’s a cracking price considering he was very unlucky last time out behind The Apache. SDS keeps the ride so I am hoping doesn’t get it wrong on him again. If he gets a clear run tomorrow then I fancy him to be very tough to beat. Igugu is the current favourite and she will no doubt come on a bundle for her latest run. She is a multiple group 1 winner and has to be taken very seriously in this. It looks very competitive but I am happy to have a decent sized bet on Sharestan to win this.

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Re: Dubai Carnival 1.05 Meydan: Secret Number, 8/1 Paddy Power, win Secret Number won his only start. He finished well to win by a neck, with third place a further 4L back. That was on the all weather at Kempton, and being out of Raven's Pass, he should act on the tapeta and the extra furlong and a half will suit. Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor is in good form. Kieren Fallon is in the saddle. He is in cracking form with 3 winners from just 7 rides over the last week. 1.40 Meydan: Spirit Quartz, 5/1 Paddy Power, win Spirit Quartz is having his first start since last October. He was beaten just ½L in a listed race in March 2012 after a similar break. Lto, he finished down the field in the Prix de l'Abbaye on ground that didn't suit. He finished second behind Ortensia twice before that in group 1 and 2 races. Jamie Spencer has ridden this horse once finishing second in the listed race mentioned. He is in decent form, having won a group 2 here last Saturday while also placing in his other two rides that day. 3.25 Meydan: African Story, 11/4 Paddy Power, win African Story has won over c&d twice from three runs. Those wins were in group 3 and 2 company. He was very unlucky on his other start over c&d as he got caught in traffic twice and lost all momentum but was full of running when he got into the clear and was only beaten by ¼L. He also won his only other start on tapeta over 7f. He has a ten month absence to overcome but he has won his seasonal reappearance twice in the past so that shouldn't be a problem. Saeed Bin Suroor is in good form and Mikael Barzalona is in the saddle. 4.00 Meydan: Hunter's Light, 10/3 Paddy Power, win Hunter's Light won a group 2 very impressively lto over c&d. He was just behind the leaders coming around the final bend when he was asked to go by his jockey. He got to the lead a furlong out and ran on well to win by over 3L. Four of the horses that were behind that day line up again today and he should confirm that form. That was his first run since November when he won a group 1 in Italy and it was his first run on the tapeta so he should improve on that. Silvestre De Sousa continues in the saddle having been on board lto.

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Re: Dubai Carnival 2.15 Krypton Factor - I dont normally like backing short priced favourites but he is miles clear on my ratings and he should win with a bit in hand. 3.25 Moonwalk In Paris - Just about edges ahead of stable companion Aesop's Fables in my ratings, especially considering he is proven on the surface. Not too keen on the jockey though! 4.00 Little Mike - If he is tuned up then he wins as far as I am concerned. First try on the surface but should relish the draw and the track with Fallon on board. Hunters Light is the main threat and worth a saver. 4.35 Igugu - I struggled with this one but I have taken a chance on this one progressing leaps and bounds from her latest run. She isnt top of my ratings but has plenty of scope to improve and unlike her stablemate The Apache, she has a decent draw and her regular rider back on board.

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Re: Dubai Carnival 14:50 1m4f Grp2 Back Plantagenet Improving, only runner for Petersen today, pretty good surface and solid sire\progeny form 16:35 1m1f Grp1 LAY City Style Plenty of others to take this on with, nearly the oldest in the race, foaled early, not keen on Yanks here, crap surface form and horse family

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Re: Dubai Carnival 13.05 Meydan: Emotif @ e/w 16/1 VC There wasn't a trouble free preparation for this filly, things simply didn't work out for her with injuries and stuff. De Kock says she's turning the corner but it's not sure if she's already back to her best and also if she really acts on the polytrack. So there are concerns today, and it really means you can easily forget about all what she showed at Meydan so far. She is a far better filly, a really good one, and even with all the worries I think the price is a huge one here because if she's near her best could be hard to beat in not overly hot looking contest. Delpech is up for the ride as well, this is a huge plus and I feel she could run a huge race. 16.35 Meydan: Igugu @ 4/1 Ladbrokes I absolutely adore this filly as one can see as I carry her picture as my avatar for the past 12 month or so here. I simply hope she shows the world tomorrow for what reasons I and so many other fans love her. That says I think she's a huge price. Couldn't believe my eyes when I saw it. It's way to big in my mind because there are loads of excuses to make for Igugu's latest slightly disappointing effort. Because considering the circumstances it was not as disappointing as some thought. Igugu was off the track for more than a year, had to go through an exhausting quarantine procedure. Surly she will come on massively for her first outing after that long break. Also it was a strange ride lto, when her jockey went way too fast and set some crazy fractions. The eventual winner got the perfect race and while Igugu looked ordinary when Sajjhaa went past her you have to give full credit to the South African filly who kept on well to the line and wasn't that far beaten in the end, despite the brutal early pace. So it was actually a pretty decent effort, even if not taking into account her long break. De Kock said straight after the race that she will improve a lot for the run, retaining his full confidence in the filly. Needless to say that Igugu was a complete superstar in South Africa before her long journey to Dubai, winning the fillies triple crown and the Met+July double. It was reported that Igugu worked well in recent days and that she's very well. It looks absolutely significant that Anthony Delpech jetted in for this ride tomorrow. This is a rather unusual move, as he doesn't ride often at Meydan, certainly not in recent years as he's busy at home but you can see that De Kock means business tomorrow, not wanting to leave Igugu's fate in the hands of a French jockey who doesn't know anything about her. Delpech though knows her in and out. He knows how to ride her, what pace you can go, and if he says she felt very well in her a final work it is something to note, let alone his presence for this race tomorrow. I believe in Igugu anyway, as long as she is still the old one, you never know with fillies of course. But her performance recently actually proved that she's still a star, even if it didn't look like that in the first moment for many. Igugu will win tomorrow, I'm absolutely sure. She's so much better than the rest of the field.

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Re: Dubai Carnival 13.40 Meydan: Shea Shea @ 7/2 Bet365 There some confidence about Shea Shea in the De Kock yard, and rightly so. This multiple Grade 1 winning sprinter has a burden of speed and should improve massively for his first outing after a long break. He won last year the Computaform Sprint at Turffontein, beating the highest rated South African horse, What A Winter, who is a world class sprinter and multiple Grade 1 winner himself. If he can find back to this form he'll be impossible to beat I think. 14.50 Meydan: Await The Dawn @ 6/4 Bet365 The usual pattern for a De Kock horse. One run to settle and regain fitness, and then go on from there. The O'Brien acquisition is a really good horse and won very well a handicap lto, won it in good style and easily and will improve from that run again. He's the class act in this field and simply hard to beat. Trip is fine as well, he won the Hardwicke Stakes at Ascot over 12f, so I think even at a short price he's the a good thing here.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Re: Dubai Carnival Really looking forward to the weekend now. I am getting Saturday off as we are in for a feast of flat racing with Doncaster and Meydan! One horse that really catches my eye for the Dubai Duty Free is the French trained Giofra. Currently best price 9/1 with Paddy Power and as low as 5/1 with others. This horse was top class last year winning the Falmouth and then finishing placed in a further 2 group 1 events. She proved she can travel the globe and still run well when finishing 2nd to California Memory at Sha Tin. She goes well fresh and she could prove tough to beat here. Looking at the race, the current favourite is a horse from New Zealand who's form can't possibly be weighed up. I very much doubt group 1 level in New Zealand is anything like as competitive as Europe. Trade Storm is also right up there at the top of the market but even though he has won a group 2 at Meydan, I still doubt whether he is good enough to win this. Little Mike is intriguing from USA but I see Sajjhaa as the main danger after a good win last time out. Still I think Giofra at 9/1 is a cracking each way bet and I have had a nice little bet on her.

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Re: Dubai Carnival Someone needs to tell Ed Dunlop that the Dubai World Cup is not run on turf and it will not be the first time Red Cadeaux has ran over 10f on turf...maybe he has entered him in the wrong race :unsure http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=533445&lid=&raceid=&title=Cadeaux+strives+to+rule+the+world&ref=PA+Racing+Feed&nav=home&sub=&day=Mon

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Re: Dubai Carnival In the Al Quoz sprint it's very hard to see anything beating Shea Shea. This horse won very easily last time out over CD recording a time almost a second quicker than Ortensia recorded when winning the Al Quoz sprint last year. He won last time out pretty much on the bridle and only had to be pushed out by Soumillion. It's a scary thought how fast this horse could actually go and to me he looks a cracking bet the King's Stand at Royal Ascot if he goes there. Can't see anything living with him if he gets quick ground.

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