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League 1 > 4th Jan - 5th Jan

Aidymac

By Aidymac
in Championship Predictions

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Aidymac

Aidymac

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[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 4 January 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Walsall v Portsmouth (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.7[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.67 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 5 January 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Crewe Alexandra v Stevenage (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.30 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Doncaster Rovers v Colchester United (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.64 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Scunthorpe United v Shrewsbury Town (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.1[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.56 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Swindon Town v Carlisle United (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.57[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.31 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Jase82

Jase82

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If you can get evens on a Walsall win I'd snap that up tbh. We were ok for about an hour up at Swindon only to fall behind to five quickly taken goals. But it's the poor defending which is costing us at the minute. We're not just losing to top teams, we're losing to bottom ten sides. It really is sucking what little confidence we had out of the club. Ricardo Rocha, Brian Howard, and Gabor Gyepes missed the loss to Swindon, and at least one of them is rated at having any chance of returning. We don't need injuries really as our squad's paper thin as it is. We only had four subs on Tuesday, with one a goalkeeper, and another academy prospect making up the bench. I suppose we will be boosted by the return of striker Paul Benson... And David Connoly signed Monday so that will give us an option. Although he's not played since March. It may be an idea to look at either goals, or backing the draw at HT, Walsall win at FT. We seem to play well for the opening half and then it all goes wrong. I suppose that could be a combination of fitness (a lot of our players had zero Pre season, and are carrying niggling injuries), poor management (Guy Whittingham and Andy Awford are legends at Pompey, but neither have really managed full time before), and lack of options from the bench or versatility within the squad as a whole.

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RedSaddler92

RedSaddler92

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Re: League 1 > 4th Jan - 5th Jan As a Walsall season ticket holder I can tell you that putting any big money or relying on us to help you win (what may seem) some easy money on paper would be a big mistake. We are notoriously hard to bet, frequently beating teams we should have no chance against and then losing games we should be winning. Our form has turned around a little recently, but we are still a strange side. We have some decent attacking players but a very youthful side that lacks experience from back to front and thus if we dont take the chances we create we are always liable to lose a goal at the other end, making us very hard to actually nail a result down to. On actual team news, the good news for Pompey is that we are again going to be missing our leading and best player Florent Cuvelier from the midfield after he went off with another hamstring injury only 10 minutes into his return against Stevenage, the bad news is that in-form (and probably our only real attacking thread without Flo) Febian Brandy is back, having scored a few goals recently and generally looking like creating something he is without a doubt my man to watch for us. Overall I'd say its a hard bet to call, I certainly wont be backing either team with any kind of stake, especially now ourselves have dropped from 1/1 - > 5/6 .. However I do believe there is some good money to be won if you are willing and interested to have a real look into things. I quite fancy both sides to grab a goal, given Pompey are like a sieve at the back and we have the third worst defence in the division. Both Teams to score 1.66 @Bet365 Febian Brandy to score 1st & Walsall to win 3/1 @WilliamHill Febian Brandy to score 1st 5/1 @WilliamHill

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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Re: League 1 > 4th Jan - 5th Jan

Good points made by both posters above. Reinforces my own view on the game. Pompey are a mess right now and I was looking at backing Walsall but not at odds on with Cuvellier out and a couple of defenders too. No bet game for me.
I also looked at backing Walsall, but I think at under 2.0 they are way too short, would have to be about 2.4 to be a good bet imho. It's always important to look at the price rather than just assuming "Portsmouth will lose, so it's a good bet".
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RedSaddler92

RedSaddler92

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Re: League 1 > 4th Jan - 5th Jan I'm still not convinced. On 1 hand he has a very poor budget, probably the lowest or equal lowest in the division, has an ever dwindling fanbase down to a hatred for the upper echelons of the club (Jeff Bonser hasn't attended a game for 3-4 years since he was protested against on the last day a few years back) and a general sense of apathy and struggle from a club on a general decline. That being said, this season we have been very mixed. There has been some positives, he signed players with awful CV's at the beginning of the season, players that were young and had only played for relegated Hereford last season or even in the non league, we've tried to play some really very pretty tippy tappy football that worked for the opening part of the season, but what was evidentally lacking from the beginning was a lack of plan B. All of our players are small in stature, weak, young and in-experienced. As soon as teams came and didnt under-estimate us, packed the midfield with 5 we had precisely no answer. What followed was frankly ghastly, defeats at home to 24th placed Scunthorpe 4-1, a wolloping at Coventry 5-1 with our captain and usual leader being sent off before arguing with the manager himself, but biggest of all was getting thoroughly trounced over 210 minutes vs non league Lincoln, thus costing a winable game with Mansfield who now have Liverpool at home in the 3rd round of the cup. Amongst this 16 winless period, we played some of the most hopeless, dreadful, lifeless, un-organised, pathetic football ever seen in the football league. Smith was criticised and rightly so, for some of his clueless substitutions, dreadful tactics (sitting in at home to Yeovil whilst being 2-0 up with 75 minutes gone, taking Brandy off who was our only threat and ending up drawing 2-2 with a last gasp goal). IF we hadn't won 3 in 4, he'd have been handed his P45 by now, but just as it looked hopeless we scrambled a win at home to Colchester, before battering the Dons at stadium MK and are now seemingly full of confidence again, being unlucky to lose at Orient and then beating Stevenage with a late goal.

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RedSaddler92

RedSaddler92

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Re: League 1 > 4th Jan - 5th Jan

Do you have any decent scorers from the back? Players that come up for corners etc? We concede a lot of silly free kicks' date=' and a lot of the goals we concede come from set pieces and headed goals.[/quote'] Yes we have Andy Butler. Centre back captain fantastic, big in the air, no-nonsense and generally a very typical tough lower league centre half. Scored double figures for Scunthorpe in 1 season a few years back from centre back and frequently pops up with important headed goals for us. Played for Blackpool in their promotion season, Huddersfield and Scunthorpe in recent years. He's our only threat in the air, we have literally 8 or 9 6ft or less skinny 19-23 year olds playing for us.
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kevshat

kevshat

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Re: League 1 > 4th Jan - 5th Jan Friday night preview: 4pts Walsall to beat Portsmouth 10/11 Stan James Portsmouth’s plight is well known but the situation isn’t good and players not knowing what’s going on and where they will be at the end of the month etc all creates uncertainty which muddies the waters on the pitch. None of that is any of Walsall’s concern though and as long as they respect Portsmouth because after all their players have a chance to seal a move somewhere here, then I would expect this one to end with a home win. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/walsall-vs-portsmouth-betting-walsall-can-pull-further-away-from-the-drop-zone-with-win-over-portsmouth

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ThemanwiththeSTATS

ThemanwiththeSTATS

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My brain has been in overdrive tossing up between a Walsall win or overs. Then I thought to myself are you really going to back Walsall of all teams at under evens ? Of course not. Portsmouth kept out Swindon for an hour last week and still got pulverised. I doubt they will want a draw here things are getting dire and I expect there to be a few goals in this one. 4 out of portsmouths last 5 have been overs and 4 of walsalls last 6 have been overs. 4 pts over 2.5 @ $1.70 tab sportsbet.

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BIG X

BIG X

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Re: League 1 > 4th Jan - 5th Jan Walsall over 6.5 corners @ 2.10 Bet365 Walsall have covered this line in 3 out of their last 6 home games 4,13,5,9,5,7 Portsmouth have conceded at least 7 corners in 3 of their last 6 away games 7,5,10,9,5,5 The last 3 times Walsall covered this line was against teams lower than them in the league - Colchester, Hartlepool and Scunthorpe. In these 3 games they only managed to win one game and never managed to score more than one goal in a game. However even when losing 1-4 to Scunthorpe they still managed 7 corners. In a game in which I expect Walsall to dominate I will take them to cover the corners rather than the goals or the straight win. With odds at above evens I think it's well worth a small play.

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Jase82

Jase82

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Walsall - 1.5 Asian Corner Handicap @ 1.9 - bet365. Bit of a variation here of the bet posted above. Pompey were earlier in the season good value to notch up a few corners away, but the last four away fixtures have resulted in us losing this bet, and we have struggle to win corners in three out of those four games. I think we will be in the game for a decent amount of time, but ultimately Walsall should be pretty dominant against us. As a side note, this should be Scott Allan's last game for us.

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Bizar01

Bizar01

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Re: League 1 > 4th Jan - 5th Jan

Walsall - 1.5 Asian Corner Handicap @ 1.9 - bet365. Bit of a variation here of the bet posted above. Pompey were earlier in the season good value to notch up a few corners away, but the last four away fixtures have resulted in us losing this bet, and we have struggle to win corners in three out of those four games. I think we will be in the game for a decent amount of time, but ultimately Walsall should be pretty dominant against us. As a side note, this should be Scott Allan's last game for us.
How are you thinking about the result? Do you think there is a chance that your club will get a draw there?
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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Re: League 1 > 4th Jan - 5th Jan

Walsall over 6.5 corners @ 2.10 Bet365 Walsall have covered this line in 3 out of their last 6 home games 4,13,5,9,5,7 Portsmouth have conceded at least 7 corners in 3 of their last 6 away games 7,5,10,9,5,5 The last 3 times Walsall covered this line was against teams lower than them in the league - Colchester, Hartlepool and Scunthorpe. In these 3 games they only managed to win one game and never managed to score more than one goal in a game. However even when losing 1-4 to Scunthorpe they still managed 7 corners. In a game in which I expect Walsall to dominate I will take them to cover the corners rather than the goals or the straight win. With odds at above evens I think it's well worth a small play.
I like the way you look at how many Portsmouth concede as well as how many Walsall win. On the face of it, it looks as though there could be some value here. William Hill are offering slightly better odds: Over 6 Walsall corners @ 2.25
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allthethings

allthethings

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Re: League 1 > 4th Jan - 5th Jan Portsmouth are now 1-4-4 as dogs of better than 4.0 away, with an O/U of 7-2 (three 2-2 results). Last season as a Championship side they were 1-4-7, 4-8 O/U. Walsall this season at home against dogs of 4.0 or better have two draws (Crewe 2-2 and Hartlepool 1-1). I'd be on the draw anyway, given my standard strategy (Portsmouth were 4.63 this morning when I took the draw @ 3.74)...I'm mulling over the over play as well but think I probably won't. I kind of like it as a cover for some of these draw plays (my book doesn't offer BTTS), but of course typically it's throwing money away if you get a low-scoring draw. The best I can say about it is it's fairly well-priced...Walsall off two straight 1-0s at home being the primary reason.

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swindonfan

swindonfan

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Re: League 1 > 4th Jan - 5th Jan I am happy to take Swindon at 1.57. Nearly a fully fit squad is available nobody has left yet. Di Canio has them at a peak right now and the 2 games that were postponed over christmas was a blessing in disguise and gave them a mini winter break. Confidence is high and the Tranmere game has really kickstarted the season. That being said i can still see it going tits up because if a championship club makes an offer for Ritchie/Foderingham or Collins the board will want to take the money. Paulo will refuse to sell. Then its bye bye Paulo bye bye season.

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Jase82

Jase82

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With Walsall 2-0 up' date=' the more I think about their pricing the more I wish I had placed a large bet on them. Hindsight is a great thing, but that was a mouth watering price without a doubt. Gutted I missed it.[/quote'] Yeah I think it's best to suspend all logic when looking at our games because we really are that poor at the minute. Something like fifteen of our players contracts are up for renewal on the 15th January. We're also back in court the same day to sort our ownership issues. So we could end up losing some of our current crop as they get tired of playing for the club after probably being promised the world - story of our club! This only means more changes among our playing staff, and yet more uncertainty with relegation all but confirmed after we come out of administration. I can't see too many players wanting to play for a relegated club, and there are few Pompey through and through left. There's also talk of promoting some academy players, so yes, things are pretty rubbish right now :(
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BIG X

BIG X

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Re: League 1 > 4th Jan - 5th Jan

Simplesoccerstats is a great tool' date=' but I stopped using it a while ago as doesn't it display only averages?[/quote'] Corners bet won with 8 so far :D tbh Jase I think you were the person who put me on to simplesoccer stats about 2 years ago. Interested to see you have stopped using. Did you find anywhere else??
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Jase82

Jase82

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Corners bet won with 8 so far :D tbh Jase I think you were the person who put me on to simplesoccer stats about 2 years ago. Interested to see you have stopped using. Did you find anywhere else??
Excellent call on the corners mate :) I wouldn't have seen the handicap bet had it not been for your post :ok I swear I stopped because I couldn't find anything other than averages, and I think simplesoccerstats are good but like most stats sites, they do a lot BUT don't do everything :lol Now I just find what I need to manually.
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