Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=class: firstColumn]Stoke City v Southampton (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.83[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.17 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[neilovan]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December I am totally baffled by this price of 1.83 for a home win. Stoke and Everton are the only undefeated teams at home in the premier league. Both winning 5 and drawing 4 games. Stoke are the only undefeated team in the premier league at home in the 2nd half. They have conceded 1 goal in 9 second half games at home (only Chelsea come close with 2 in 9) Saints have not kept a clean sheet away from home this season losing 6 of 8 games. 1 Win against QPR and a draw last out with Fulham. At home they have managed 2 clean sheets in 10 games, for a total of 2 in 18 games. Stoke have scored in 7 of 9 home games and I expect them to score in this game. After that it's close up shop and bring it home. To me this is a 10 unit banker . Stoke home win.

[RIO2014]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December

I am totally baffled by this price of 1.83 for a home win. Stoke and Everton are the only undefeated teams at home in the premier league. Both winning 5 and drawing 4 games. Stoke are the only undefeated team in the premier league at home in the 2nd half. They have conceded 1 goal in 9 second half games at home (only Chelsea come close with 2 in 9) Saints have not kept a clean sheet away from home this season losing 6 of 8 games. 1 Win against QPR and a draw last out with Fulham. At home they have managed 2 clean sheets in 10 games, for a total of 2 in 18 games. Stoke have scored in 7 of 9 home games and I expect them to score in this game. After that it's close up shop and bring it home. To me this is a 10 unit banker . Stoke home win.

Not much to add here, at around 4/5, on the back of a BIG win, does anybody realy beleive saints can come here and get anything. You may say stoke will think they should roll them over and apathy will set in, That may be true for alot of teams, but not Pulis. This has BANKER home win written all over it, the 1.83 with coral wont be there for much longer, and has to be the anchor of the day in no uncertain terms. 100 points win Stoke City gl all

[AXERTYRE]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December Totally agree. I for one cannot understand why Stoke are consistently being underrated by the bookies, well I guess its good for us to capitalise their continuous mistakes. Stoke -0.75 2.1 Bet365

[Jase82]

Tbh I think Stoke aren't being favoured by the bookies because of a combination of two factors - although they have been winning they never really pull up any trees in doing so, and secondly they are in that group of teams between tenth and fourteenth, so evens will usually be the price. I think here although Stoke have been gaining the results and have pushed themselves up the table I personally wouldn't back them under 1.75. As I can see the price only dropping further once the wider public lay into them I would envisage a fairly decent back and lay strategy being available. If we look at the wider picture I wouldn't expect Stoke to win all their home games, and while I'm not a fan of backing assuming a side won't win because they've won too many (or similar reasoning), here I'm left with the feeling that Stoke odds on isn't a good bet. Southampton fighting for their lives, always put in a good technical performance. I'd have to side with both to score, and maybe Southampton on a + handicap as I would feel almost dirty tipping Stoke @ odds on :lol GL to anyone that does though :ok

[wisey10]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December One key point for this match is that Shawcross is suspended. Upson will probably replace him but he will be seriously lacking match practice. Shawcross out is a massive miss.

[DF46936]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December Same here mate, keep telling myself to look for some reason why it's not shorter. Thought Stoke would be more 8/13 shots

[jeanpaulg]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December Shawcross not suspended right ? http://www.thefa.com/football-rules-governance/suspensions

[Jase82]

Shawcross not suspended right ? http://www.thefa.com/football-rules-governance/suspensions

No he's suspended for this game :ok Booking picked up was on the 26th.

[.Rd.]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December Shawcross and Cameron will be suspended for this round

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December banker for the under 2,5 in my opinion. stoke had fabulous strikes for 3 goals vs. pool. But for me they are expected to go back to their usual self. with 2 important defense players missing they will look for security. southhampton is still missing lallana and will have big problems with this stoke organization. tough they tightened up a the back and i think they will be satisfied with a draw. stoke is a force at home and their organisation is faboulous. tough they tend to struggle ror goals and southhampton looks better at the back then pool these days..

[McGlashan]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December Home win for me and im surprised to see a small drift in the price. Shawcross is out but as a team Stoke defend with large numbers so it feels like people are over valuing how this effects Stoke compared to how it would effect a different side. Stoke appear overpriced by bookies possibly due to their style of play of conceding possession and shots (albeit poor quality chances).

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December

Home win for me and im surprised to see a small drift in the price. Shawcross is out but as a team Stoke defend with large numbers so it feels like people are over valuing how this effects Stoke compared to how it would effect a different side. Stoke appear overpriced by bookies possibly due to their style of play of conceding possession and shots (albeit poor quality chances).

I think its more cause they dont convert much. Draw always big possibility. Teams like Fulham, Everton when on a home win roll often beat opposition convincingly thus dropping their price deeper. Anyway your observation that missing players are not that bad for them is a good one. They have a great team chemistry and system that every player who comes in plays. There is not one player where you can say they will suffer big time loosing him...

[wisey10]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December Yes Cameron is out as well so that's our right back and centre half out suspended. It's pretty much half the defence out and would definitely put me off backing Stoke, especially at odds on.

[RIO2014]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December SOLID: The Potters have the best defence in the Premier League (14 conceded), and the fifth best throughout Europe. STOPPER: Asmir Begovic has nine clean sheets to his name this season; more than any other top-flight stopper DEFENCE Ryan Shotton and Mathew Upson will come in. RS 8 league appearances this year, MU ex England international, with 14 league appearences for Stoke last season. Im still not thinking southampton with scoring 1.3 goals per game and conceding almost 2 per game, are stopping Stoke. Stoke have a real thirst up front at the moment, and can se them scoring at least 2 here, I dont see them conceding 2, against a very very average side. GL all

[McGlashan]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December

I think its more cause they dont convert much. Draw always big possibility. Teams like Fulham, Everton when on a home win roll often beat opposition convincingly thus dropping their price deeper. Anyway your observation that missing players are not that bad for them is a good one. They have a great team chemistry and system that every player who comes in plays. There is not one player where you can say they will suffer big time loosing him...

Stoke have an excellent home record this year and have been beating teams that are relegation candidates. Southampton have lost 6/8 PL away games - drawing with an out of form Fulham side and beating QPR. They've also not taken a point off anyone equal to or above Stoke in the league table. At the risk of getting egg on my face I hear no strong reasoning as to why there isn't value in a Stoke win at 1.8

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December

Stoke have an excellent home record this year and have been beating teams that are relegation candidates. Southampton have lost 6/8 PL away games - drawing with an out of form Fulham side and beating QPR. They've also not taken a point off anyone equal to or above Stoke in the league table. At the risk of getting egg on my face I hear no strong reasoning as to why there isn't value in a Stoke win at 1.8

Risk of a draw cause Stoke doesnt score much and Southampton tightening up lately. Stoke best defender out. Still they beat pool 3:1 and this might start a trend but Im not feeling that. IMO narrow stoke win has surely more value given the results. Southampton never conceeded more then one goal the last 5. I just cant back any mediocre premiere league team that doesnt have the ability to reguarly trash some teams below evens. Like Everton going below 1,5. Maybe if they face a bad team with many key players out. But Southhampton doesnt look atm to be totally rubbish. Stoke @2,4 and then it ends in a draw..Im ok with. Stoke @1,8 and a draw.. im really annoyed. 0:0 or a 1:1 isnt out of question and wouldnt be a surprise. I would rather take the under 2,5 @1,8. IMO

[Kizo321]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December @ notoriouspunter what do you mean by "they don't convert much" exactly? hopefully you are not thinking about shot/goal ratio... key to stoke's success is exactly that - an extremely high shot/goal conversion ratio which could so precisely been seen against liverpool, they do not need many 15 chances to score two goals (hernandez anyone?). second, when did everton, or fulham, actually trash their opponents at home exactly? i can't remember when did this happen...

[neilovan]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December

Risk of a draw cause Stoke doesnt score much and Southampton tightening up lately. Stoke best defender out. Still they beat pool 3:1 and this might start a trend but Im not feeling that. IMO narrow stoke win has surely more value given the results. Southampton never conceeded more then one goal the last 5. I just cant back any mediocre premiere league team that doesnt have the ability to reguarly trash some teams below evens. Like Everton going below 1,5. Maybe if they face a bad team with many key players out. But Southhampton doesnt look atm to be totally rubbish. Stoke @2,4 and then it ends in a draw..Im ok with. Stoke @1,8 and a draw.. im really annoyed. 0:0 or a 1:1 isnt out of question and wouldnt be a surprise. I would rather take the under 2,5 @1,8. IMO

The average goals in Saints away games this season is 3.75 per game. 2nd Highest in the premier league behind Tottenham at 3.89 per game away. Stoke's home game goals per game average is 1.67. What prevails ... low or high , red or black ?

[RIO2014]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December MEDIOCRE prem league teams....They all are on their day. Mancity CHAMPIONS last 3 at home Reading EFC Man u.....WDL...2 out of 3 way odds on No trashing... all 3 odds on I wont go on, you will find examples with all teams in this league. In this case i dont think their will be athrashing, but at 4/5 stoke r the value here.

[TOTTI3]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December Stoke vs Southampton =both teams to score (1.90) stake 5/10 Stoke position 8 ° points 28 Southampton position 17 ° points 16 Preview: Stoke: suspended: Geoff Cameron (defender 18/0), Ryan Shawcross (defender 19/0); Injured: Marc Wilson (defender 9/0), Rory Delap (midfielder 1/0); in doubt: Michael Owen (striker 4/0). Southampton: injured: Adam Lallana (midfielder 16/2). Stoke has a score in-house w5-d4-l0 ​​goals scored 11 goals against 4 while Southampton has a score out of the house w1-d1-l6 goals scored 9 goals against 21. The home team is nine-match unbeaten run, won the last home game with the score of 3-1 against Liverpool. The visiting team is a good draw away from home with a score of 1-1 against Fulham one of the teams that are fighting to avoid relegation. Both teams have different objectives and important to achieve the Stoke is fighting for a place in the Europa League while Southampton is struggling to avoid relegation as it has only one point ahead of Wigan which is third last in the standings. I think this is a game with so many emotions and so many goals, the fact that the home team missing three key defenders like Geoff Cameron, Ryan Shawcross, Marc Wilson and the visiting team will not play a game of containment rather to try to get the win. The last H2H: mar 12/02/08 CHA Stoke City 3 - 2 Southampton sab 25/08/07 CHA Southampton 3 - 2 Stoke City sab 10/03/07 CHA Stoke City 2 - 1 Southampton sab 21/10/06 CHA Southampton 1 - 0 Stoke City sab 15/04/06 CHA Stoke City 1 - 2 Southampton sab 29/10/05 CHA Southampton 2 - 0 Stoke City :hope

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December

@ notoriouspunter what do you mean by "they don't convert much" exactly? hopefully you are not thinking about shot/goal ratio... key to stoke's success is exactly that - an extremely high shot/goal conversion ratio which could so precisely been seen against liverpool, they do not need many 15 chances to score two goals (hernandez anyone?). second, when did everton, or fulham, actually trash their opponents at home exactly? i can't remember when did this happen...

You are right. They just dont score much. I know its their style. Score one and then secure it with all you have.. regarding everton, fulham.. Fulham did have 2 high margin wins this season and last season also. So they are able to do that. Everton only one time beat the handicap this season..right but you get the impression they have more ability to get a convincing win, and Im sure they will get some this season. I base my opinion not on statistics but on what I see. Potentially I just dont see Stoke trashing teams at home leaving always the impression that a draw is very likely. And with that I only wanted to illustrate what bookies think to offer these prices. I also stated I wont back Everton at these prices as you cant expect them anytime to win high.. Anyway for this game with Stoke missings in defence and Southampton looking tight at the back I cant see how Stoke below evens is Value at all.

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December

The average goals in Saints away games this season is 3.75 per game. 2nd Highest in the premier league behind Tottenham at 3.89 per game away. Stoke's home game goals per game average is 1.67. What prevails ... low or high , red or black ?

These statistics are only hints at what is possible. I like to try digging deeper. What far more important is how these teams play these days and how both styles will clash and how the players match up against each other. What I see is that Southampton considerably tightened up their defensive organisation cause them trying to "play" other teams didnt work out many times. This goes for some sacrifices in the offensive end of the game. With Lallana missing they have even less options there. So they will probably try again to stay good organized. Its the key for them to stay in the prem. Then we have Stoke on the other side who emphaticly go forward with a strong organization all over the pitch which they prove game for game. Tough they have two big missings in defence with Shawcross and Cameron. Upson who hadnt games recently will come in in CD. This is a weakness no doubt. The question is how Stoke will cope with that? Im not so sure of that but often teams will be a bit more passiv and more into security. I also think that the organization of stoke is still good and due to the team effort rather then single players. So I expect a more cautios play and both teams heavily defending any lead while the other team wont expose them totally at the back. So the stats you give for Southampton should be weighted much lower due to their trend to play more defensivly and the missing of lallana while Stokes statistics wont be mroe affected as they will be more carefull with Upson having no match practice while their organization is still strong enough to contain a hampton team not going all out as at the start of the season. IMO Also the game vs. pool. Stoke was motivated to punish pool. The supporters got some hate for pool going and it got rather emotional. I dont expect a similar score line as this will be a more composed game..

[SaltandSauce]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December Well after the all mighty performance that Stoke put in against Liverpool, I can't see past anything other than another victory in the match up. Before anyone jumps to conclusions, yes, I'm fully aware that Stoke are renown for being the all mighty draw kings , but they seem to be scoring goals with inform striker Kenwyne Jones, and let's not forget about Jonathan Walters who put in one hell of a performance against Liverpool, and thoroughly deserved to be man of the match. With them currently scoring goals upfront, and an with all mighty defense outback that has them holding the record for the highest amount of clean sheets in the division, this game is too good to ignore - especially at almost even money. Southampton on the other hand have only managed one win away from home this season. Six defeats and one draw in their other seven attempts means the Saints have only managed to scrape together four points from a possible 32 on their travels. If I was to have one concern and only one concern in this game, it would have to be the one match suspension of Ryan Shawcross and Geoff Cameron. Both Stoke defenders have been solid as rocks in defense this season. But even then, I'm too concerned since I'm sure manager Tony Pullis will have their replacements suited and booted against a team that in my opinion struggles in the attack. So for me, and it's not like me, I intend on betting BIG in this game. Why the bookies have Stoke at even money is beyond me? Maybe they seem to think Stoke don't have it in them to produce another victory? I'm not quite sure as to the answer to that question! Let's not forget that Stoke never just beat Liverpool, they completely outclassed them throughout the entire game. So anyway, before I decide to ramble on anymore, my bet has to be the following: Stoke vs Southampton - Stoke WIN @ 5/6 w/ William Hill

[A Scott]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December

I am totally baffled by this price of 1.83 for a home win.

I look for errors just like this one you are spot on this is a banker for sure, I just can not see why the price is where it is.. A list of a few more errors I found HERE. These are my thoughts on quite a few matches over next few days all are based on price and price alone. Its good to know others see what I see...:clap

[kevin.]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December Stoke have played 4 games over 2.5 goals and 15 games under 2.5 goals. Also, looking Southampton latest results, i must agree with notorius - Under 2.5 goals.

[malabgd]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December Injuries and suspensions Stoke City v Southampton Stoke City: Delap (1/0 m), Wilson (9/0 d), Shawcross (19/0 d), Cameron (18/0 d) Southampton: Lallana (16/2 m)

[Kizo321]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December @ A Scott on what do you base your estimations?

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December

I look for errors just like this one you are spot on this is a banker for sure, I just can not see why the price is where it is.. A list of a few more errors I found HERE. These are my thoughts on quite a few matches over next few days all are based on price and price alone. Its good to know others see what I see...:clap

price in relation to what? past results? anyone can say price is to high..but why? nobody can trust you just because you say you beat the bookies.. If this is a banker then you might bet more on it then your standard bet? Did you recognize that huth looked a bit shaky/unconcentrated lately? Will it help him that in upson a guy plays that hasnt played a single game this season? For you its maybe bla bla. for the game and the 90 minutes it might mean everything..

[neilovan]

Re: Stoke City v Southampton > Sat 29th December Was watching a rerun of the Stoke v Liverpool game last night. Just the 2nd half. They did many things really well. Work rate from Stoke was amazing. Pressed Liverpool deep and never let them build. Counter attack was excellent. Win ball-quick pass onto a nimble fast runner. Defensive structure was near perfect for 40 minutes. Never lost their shape. Could see a 4 4 2 structure as plain as day. No ball watching, or standing still. Pass and move or pick up an attacker. They went to 5 4 1 for the last 15 minutes and it was easy as well. This is not the most 'blessed-with-skill' group of players. Pulis has got them playing close to their max. Confidence is high, results really solid (if unspectacular) in a system that they believe in. If they bring in a reasonable striker in Jan transfer window they will surprise everyone this season. Watching that I believe that Saints will be blanked in this game. I will still be going for the Home win here but the win to nil type bets also look reasonable. Scoreline of 1-0 is 11/2 -------- 2-0 is 8-1 Will take each of these onto Fulham HT win FT draw which gives you approx 70 - 1 and 105 to 1 on 1/2 unit each. Taking my bets now and I found even money on stoke at https://www.betxchange.co.za/index.aspx