monty76 Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 HI, Hope you are all well. Been reading alot of your posts on here as far back as 2004 and can relate to so much that is said, I can almost feel the frustration in some threads and the BUZZ when it is thought something is working in others, the way I do myself...great stuff. There are alot of very informed people here who speak a language only understood by those that have spent many an evening looking at a computer screen boggled eyed waiting for something brilliant to appear in a spread sheet that you hadnt noticed before ....after doing the same for years and years not giving up, determined you are going to be rewarded for your efforts...that journey is long, tough and requires a dedication that wont be wavered...but the pattern does appear because you wanted it enough. We all know the significance of 33% and we all know....it's not as simple as that! We all know it is a force of nature or a law of average but on its own terms, we know this because time and time again the number reappears as if to taunt you saying "find the way"!!..but when you tried to bank on it it left you high and dry...but the very next day was fine again, too late when you blew the pot! My Top Tip and humble offering to anyone new to all this is...... to BEWARE THE DEVIL INSIDE because once you have found your own way and decided on a system which you have fully tried and tested over a sustained period....it will deviate from the hours spent on the system and staking plans which effectively renders them useless ....a mad moment trying to get ahead has the very opposite effect. Controlling this from the off puts you ahead. N1 Monty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. Hello Monty! Cracking first post mate and never a truer word spoken!! I was going to start a similar theme encouraging people that if they weren't ready for 2013 already, then they were probably already too late. The hours put in on research are at least as valuable as those actually punting. Even with a proven strategy, one has to employ Machine like discilpine and ruthlessness in order that the strategy pays off long term. I'm pretty much done for 2012 - backing and laying banks have been set aside for 2013. It's almost like starting again and for me - it's a complete 'do or die' as I'm ramping up stakes. If I fail, I am confident it won't be through loose bets or not following my rules - more likely a fear of losing my bank and not actually placing the bet during a losing run that my strategy dictates I should. The Phychology of gambling is such an underplayed part of the game and I would argue it is even more important than your actual selections themselves!! Good Luck with the journey! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwjodi Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. Hi Monty You echo my feelings completely. I am new to the UK scene and already I feel the frustration of all the near misses. Second when I bet win. fourth when I place E/W But then we just love it and keep going Jodi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monty76 Posted November 21, 2012 Author Share Posted November 21, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. ...."The Phychology of gambling is such an underplayed part of the game." There you go I said all that and The Saint sorts it in one sentence!..I agree completely in fact I would argue that without getting that side of it right first ..Not to bother at all! MwJodi it will happen throughout at all stages... I call them "freaks" when the bad runs come.. however they are more regular than that! The vast majority (Im talking daft percentages) Of people faced with temporary failiure will quit, most with no strategy or plan ..less the gambler with an addiction! This forum represents the minority if you look for the question it is people like these that have "lived" the answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. Hello Monty! Cracking first post mate and never a truer word spoken!! I was going to start a similar theme encouraging people that if they weren't ready for 2013 already, then they were probably already too late. The hours put in on research are at least as valuable as those actually punting. Even with a proven strategy, one has to employ Machine like discilpine and ruthlessness in order that the strategy pays off long term. I'm pretty much done for 2012 - backing and laying banks have been set aside for 2013. It's almost like starting again and for me - it's a complete 'do or die' as I'm ramping up stakes. If I fail, I am confident it won't be through loose bets or not following my rules - more likely a fear of losing my bank and not actually placing the bet during a losing run that my strategy dictates I should. The Phychology of gambling is such an underplayed part of the game and I would argue it is even more important than your actual selections themselves!! Good Luck with the journey! The psychology of gambling is fascinating and I have known people with gambling problems that have a real problem with their mentality towards gambling. A fella I used to work with built up gambling debts of around 24k, starting with fruit machines and also gambling on horses. As an example we went to the Grand National and he backed 9 horses in that race and didn't even get a place. He was desperate to get the winner, even though when you take into account he has backed 9 horses he still might not have turned a profit. I've seen him throw hundreds into fruit machines and tried to get him to walk away but he's got to the point where he needed the £250 jackpot just to get level. These people will win £50 on a bandit and tell you they've won £50 but the truth is they've put £100 in and are actually £50 down. Whenever you go to the races someone asks you how many winners you have had. They don't ask you if you made any money or they will ask what you have won and then say "but you will have lost plenty won't you". There seems to be jealousy, envy and a distrust if you actually do leave a racecourse in profit. I've explained to the people I work with that of course I back losers and hit a few in a row but the prices of the winners I get means I only need something like a 1 in 4 return. There is also each way returns and you could actually leave a racecourse without backing a winner and still be in profit with a number of big priced places but they seem unable to understand it. The concept of value is just too hard for some people to understand, even so in betting circles with the " a winner's a winner" whatever the price brigade. The Saint - You are going to ramp stakes so are you going to consider each way bets so you don't have the psychology of long losing runs or is that not possible due to bookies limitations on accounts and that most bets are Betfair? In that case would a win/place tactic work or is there the liquidity in the place market, would a 70-30 place/win split work or do you feel ew and place bets are too negative, covering bets to protect stakes? I don't mind leaving a horse alone and seeing it win if I've left it for the right reasons as I know there will be plenty at short prices to oppose such as Grands Crus at the weekend that I was totally against. Didn't back the winner but had read that horse spot on and posted in a thread about it being a doubtful stayer with a possible dodgy attitude, just not convinced by it at all. It's probably similar to laying down a good hand in poker when you know there is no value in playing it and laying down the cards is the right move due to the amount of chips needed to be played to move on. I'd imagine needing a starting bank of about £20,000 if I was ever going to attempt to bet full time but I'm not sure I would cope with he pressure of needing winners to pay bills, a mortgage etc. Having £20 ew or whatever is one thing but when your food on the table and clothes on the kids backs depends on it then it just takes it to another level and I respect anyone that can do it full time and make it pay. You certainly need faith in your own ability to pick winners, even when you keep hitting the crossbar and have run up a sequence of losers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. It is key. I cannot understand how people bet each day, it seems mental to me. I saw a paid for tipping service say earlier they had 6 winners today! How many bets did they advise to do this, on a day like today! When I first started I was betting all the time, each day and it is a sure fire way to the poor hourse, but at the same time it was small amounts and if you have the right mind set you can learn more through learning. I hate the lower grade stuff myself, non triers, gambles and the horses attitudes anyway aren't as sound, hence why they run at this level. Just more things out of your control when studying the form. Now I can go weeks without betting but it doesn't bother me and I'm sat watching racing all day in the office. I just don't believe that people can possibly fancy something every day, most of the time you are picking something for the sake of having a bet. One of the hardest things to do is spend an hour or more studying the form and not having a bet, that is a skill. Also, as Phil alluded to is the prices of horse. I rarely back below 3/1 personally, I have to be really sure to back something short, although of course odds on shots can still be value I am happy to see them win at short odds anyway. If something you fancy wins at 7/4 are you really bothered? I bet on the whole you will lose more backing them and most the time they won't win. Everyone has their methods though. Having confidence in your ability is important too, knowing that if you suffer a loss on a Saturday you are able to find winners over the next races and make money. All about long term winning, chasing losses is terrible. Rambled on a bit here but for me it's so important and for me personally the thing that has changed the most and made a huge difference Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. The Saint - You are going to ramp stakes so are you going to consider each way bets so you don't have the psychology of long losing runs or is that not possible due to bookies limitations on accounts and that most bets are Betfair? In that case would a win/place tactic work or is there the liquidity in the place market, would a 70-30 place/win split work or do you feel ew and place bets are too negative, covering bets to protect stakes? I don't mind leaving a horse alone and seeing it win if I've left it for the right reasons as I know there will be plenty at short prices to oppose such as Grands Crus at the weekend that I was totally against. Didn't back the winner but had read that horse spot on and posted in a thread about it being a doubtful stayer with a possible dodgy attitude, just not convinced by it at all. It's probably similar to laying down a good hand in poker when you know there is no value in playing it and laying down the cards is the right move due to the amount of chips needed to be played to move on. I'd imagine needing a starting bank of about £20,000 if I was ever going to attempt to bet full time but I'm not sure I would cope with he pressure of needing winners to pay bills, a mortgage etc. Having £20 ew or whatever is one thing but when your food on the table and clothes on the kids backs depends on it then it just takes it to another level and I respect anyone that can do it full time and make it pay. You certainly need faith in your own ability to pick winners, even when you keep hitting the crossbar and have run up a sequence of losers. A fair question Mowgli - very much so. How many times I struggle with the EW vs Win battle!? I've lost count! I wish I was exageratting to make a point but of my last 22 bets, I've had 4 winners and 11(!!!!!!) places!!! I've analysed my bets every which way and the conclusions I have reached may only work for me. For what it's worth - the plan of attack is as follows; Win Only at 12/1 and under - I am so far better off and this covers the majority of my bets. From 366 back bets this year, only 23 have been over 12/1 and all of them have lost. Win only I'd have been 23 points down but EW, I'd only be looking at a 2.5 point loss on these 23 bets. I will also lay back my stake at 1.6 which will ultimatly cost me money but would have saved it from being lost on 32 occassions which is worth the phychological lift for me and my personal phychological make-up - that is to say 32 bets have traded at 1.6 and under that have subsequently been beaten... Finally, I am happily getting a level of confidence with 'lay' betting that more often than not will negate the phychological damage of the inevitable losing run. The honest reason for ramping stakes is that I have calculated the minimum I need to live off from a 10% ROI which would be my worst in years if it did happen. I am no longer able to rely on Bookmakers accepting bets, laying advertised prices and do not have the time or the inclination to trade for ticks anymore so it's in with both feet without these relative safety nets as back up/stake money!! The figure you mention of 20k is about right for my worse case scenario - wishful thinking - the worse case scenario is that I lose of course but that hasn't happened yet and if you're not confident in your own ability you're doomed to fail from the start. I can leave bets no problem - as you say - just like laying down marginal Poker Hands - they might win sometimes but not in the long run. It's a scary thought but I've made it pay for a while now and if it goes wrong, it goes wrong. Better to find out whilst I have a betting bank rather than think about it all the time when I don't!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. Now I can go weeks without betting but it doesn't bother me and I'm sat watching racing all day in the office. I think there is definatly something in this. I worked in a Bookmakers for 6 years and I'm sorry to say that watching races actually bores me now and I consider this a massive advantage over the punter that is looking for an adrenilin rush or the thrill of a bet. I just don't believe that people can possibly fancy something every day, most of the time you are picking something for the sake of having a bet. One of the hardest things to do is spend an hour or more studying the form and not having a bet, that is a skill. Absolutly agree. After a while, if you have a blank day/s it comes as a relief! A chance to get ahead and concentrate on teh racing that's 48 hours away or relax for the day! Not having a bet is one of the best feelings going now!! Also, as Phil alluded to is the prices of horse. I rarely back below 3/1 personally, I have to be really sure to back something short, although of course odds on shots can still be value I am happy to see them win at short odds anyway. If something you fancy wins at 7/4 are you really bothered? I bet on the whole you will lose more backing them and most the time they won't win. Everyone has their methods though. Having confidence in your ability is important too, knowing that if you suffer a loss on a Saturday you are able to find winners over the next races and make money. All about long term winning, chasing losses is terrible. Seen it happen and it's horrible to watch. I don't understand it personally but can only sympathise with those who have a problem with gambling. Unfortunatly, some of my sypathy is lost as I have little doubt that for every 'addict' there are a number of people that are just irresponible and 'greedy' who are lumbered in the same group. For me, FOBTs have an awful lot to answer for. Rambled on a bit here but for me it's so important and for me personally the thing that has changed the most and made a huge difference ^^^ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. Shame we didn't get more thoughts on this. I think it's a really interesting topic and a very important one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lars Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. Shame we didn't get more thoughts on this. I think it's a really interesting topic and a very important one To be fair though, it is a conversation that has been done to death on plenty of occasions on every racing forum going, including this one. My best tip - make sure you enjoy the form study element. Whether it's studying a certain type of race, watching a replay or going racing and watching horses in the paddock, make sure you enjoy it. If you don't, take a break or just don't bother and find a different hobby. I can't imagine a life where you're craving to get your next winner is a very healthy one. You only get one go, after all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. Really? I don't recall it being discussed on here that much, or recently, although I could be completely wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. Ratty, depends what you want to call it, Psychology or Discipline, we have chatted about that in various posts over the years but maybe not as a subject heading so you could have missed it. Its a difficult one really, not everyone has the time to devote to betting and we all know how cutting corners ends up, thats why i do my ratings for the novices, it forces me to do it every day coz if i get behind its really difficult to be motivated to catch up again. It also makes me follow my findings as if i didn't how could i justify spending so much time doing them? I can handle losing runs no problem as long as i see a perfectly good reason for a horse getting beat, now in my opinion the only way you are going to know that is if you have done everything possible to understand the race in the first place. No good moaning about a bad performance if later you here the trainer say the horse hated the ground and form book said it was unproven on it? I think there are only a very few who follow the form closely every day, a lot of guys tend to only have the time at weekends and for big meetings and others just pick out the odd race to look at. I personally think its essential to watch everything, after all the Class 4's at Taunton and the like are the foundation that handicaps are built on and make you understand the difference in levels of form and therefore get to grips with the better races and the improving progressive types that often win the big Saturday handicaps. Also the form of the stables are a vital part of form reading i think and while you can look at results to find the latest stats it not a replacement for watching the horses run. Earlier in the jump season if you watched Tom George or Charlie Longsdons horses running well until two out and then fading, there was some good laying opportunities for a couple of weeks afterwards, the papers probably said they had X many placed horses which may have looked pretty good to the untrained eye for example. Phil, by the way Grands Crus was found to have a breathing problem and has had an operation to solve it. How you can say it was a doubtful stayer in the Paddy Power (2m5f) when its won over 3 miles 4 times and been second to Big Bucks twice over an extended 3 miles is baffling. You can question its attitude if you like but you cant argue with the form book surely? He was obviously not right and hopefully he will come back next year, still has time on his side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. Phil, by the way Grands Crus was found to have a breathing problem and has had an operation to solve it. How you can say it was a doubtful stayer in the Paddy Power (2m5f) when its won over 3 miles 4 times and been second to Big Bucks twice over an extended 3 miles is baffling. You can question its attitude if you like but you cant argue with the form book surely? He was obviously not right and hopefully he will come back next year, still has time on his side. In the write up I did I said the trip of 2m5f shouldn't be a problem. I felt unsure it gets 3m over fences. There was absolutely nothing wrong with the Big Bucks form but I think 3m over fences takes so much more out of a horse than 3m over hurdles. It just seemed to empty at Cheltenham last year and I was concerned it would do the same again in the PaddyPower, more due to attitude than lack of stamina. If it's been found to have a breathing problem then that's better as it's a genuine excuse for it running the way it did rather than any attitude, lack of heart, bottle etc. I had it in my 10 to follow last year but just had doubts this year so left it alone. I think there are only a very few who follow the form closely every day, a lot of guys tend to only have the time at weekends and for big meetings and others just pick out the odd race to look at. I personally think its essential to watch everything, after all the Class 4's at Taunton and the like are the foundation that handicaps are built on and make you understand the difference in levels of form and therefore get to grips with the better races and the improving progressive types that often win the big Saturday handicaps. Also the form of the stables are a vital part of form reading i think and while you can look at results to find the latest stats it not a replacement for watching the horses run. Earlier in the jump season if you watched Tom George or Charlie Longsdons horses running well until two out and then fading, there was some good laying opportunities for a couple of weeks afterwards, the papers probably said they had X many placed horses which may have looked pretty good to the untrained eye for example. You've described me above to some extent (not sure if that was intentional or unintentional ;) ) but I am guilty of not studying form midweek. I know I couldn't do that if I ever bet full time. You'd have to be sat in front of a screen for hours on end watching races and then watching replays several times to get an edge. It's one of the reasons I end up avoiding the handicaps even at the festival because I have no clear judgement on whether a horse is well handicapped if I haven't even seen it run. I'm trying to get to more racing and often take away plenty for the notebook that I've seen on the day. I can't stand the long away journeys on the coach so much these days so I'll be getting to more racing in the next 12 months. If I have the time I try watch the racing back on RUK when they do the days replays in an evening or I'll try catch some of the finishes when studying the form. Your ratings are a good idea, keep an eye in with the racing and spot the improvers or even the overrated ones to avoid. I have some idea of where I rate the top class horses and which are possibly overrated but have no formal figures on paper. How long does it take you to do your ratings each week? I wouldn't mind rating the top class animals. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeilM Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 One of the very best aspects of working for a bookmaker is the opportunity to watch every race and keep a notebook on your desk (I've no idea if the same opportunity is in shops as I've never worked in one). Certainly when I started doing that seriously my betting performance went up after a few months. I don't have the time/inclination to do loads of midweek form study but I know it's the only way to make a real go of it unless you're just trading blindly which isn't for me, not least because I don't have the cash: if I did I'd run a bot or two and skim some cash while I looked at the form properly. Psychologically, I think betting exchanges are a problem for many people either because they don't get the concept, are unable to understand decimals for whatever reason (I've had plenty of conversations on this) or perhaps crucially don't like the concept of backing to lose. The latter is my problem because I see myself as a positive sort but I'm having to get to grips with it as it is becoming harder for me to get a bet on. The impact of confidence is massive for me as well- we all know the impact of being absolutely convinced you've got the winner only for it to trail in last. A bad losing run a few years ago forced me to reconsider betting altogether and I had time out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. On the subject of notebooks, I do think it'd be nigh impossible for someone who works in a regular full time job to keep upto date on the process. Something that I'm testing at the moment is using the monthly diary picks from Racing Ahead. Sadly they don't show any of the follow up runs so I can't measure it at the moment. TheRat mentioned earlier in the thread that he doesn't see how anyone could have a bet everyday. Big stakes and limited bankroll I could understand, but when there are multiple meetings per day it's relatively easy to find a few fancies whilst maintaining discipline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeilM Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 One strategy I've seen fairly serious bettors use (I don't mean mug punters who just spend a lot) is to essentially split the bank into two: use part b to bet on one or two fancies every day or whatever and use any profits to top up the main fund. In theory it could also help you develop an eye for trappy midweek stuff at Southwell or Wolves but the temptation would obviously be to raid the main bank with IOUs to yourself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. I was reading a blog the other day which I found interesting, relating to psychology.... http://gamblerspsychologykit.blogspot.co.uk/2012/12/its-green.html Is anyone aware of any books specific to punting and psychology? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. I was reading a blog the other day which I found interesting, relating to psychology.... http://gamblerspsychologykit.blogspot.co.uk/2012/12/its-green.html Is anyone aware of any books specific to punting and psychology? I've not seen anything specific to gambling. I've seen studies where you can draw comparisons with animals and humans. They are mainly around conditioning - classical and operant conditioning. One is where a stimulus evokes a response, there was a study that would never get passed now where loud noises created fear and while giving a child an inanimate object like a piece of cloth/fur etc the object would become something the child would fear. Google Little Albert study for the whole theory etc. In operant conditioning there was a study where rats pressed a lever to get a reward, it is positive reinforcement and there was a negative reinforcement (a shock) if they pressed the wrong lever. You can draw some comparisons to the feral rats you'll see in the local bookies playing the FOBT machines. Fruit machines are the same, they keep giving you small wins to condition you to think you're winning and draw you in, the flashing lights add as extra stimulus. There is an article on that link you've posted about the psychology of losing but its about poker rather than betting although there are some similarities such as evaluating why you have lost. The bit on that blog about conformity and group pressure is a bit like the mugs you see in the bookies that blindly follow a gamble like sheep yet don't know why the horse is being backed, just back it anyway and be part of a gamble. Nothing wrong with a difference of opinion from the norm, unless it is someone just being an attention seeking knob that is trying to be controversial. I did notice something about an emotional attachment to money, that was interesting. On the rare occasions I've increased stakes beyond the norm a loss somehow feels much worse. I remember backing a horse called Petella and having £120 on it, which was about 5-6 x normal stake at the time and I was totally confident it was well in and would win. Unfortunately it had a 5lb claimer on that overdid the waiting tactics and it lost. I was watching the race with Kevshat and said he'd left it too late to get going at the time, felt absolutely sick to have lost that much money on one bet yet was totally confident before the race. The reaction afterwards is as important, I didn't go chasing losses, I realised I'd overbet it despite confidence and at a price probably too short (think it was 7-4). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExpectTheUnexpected Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. An interesting point about the people who play the FOBT machines. Crucially though I think, and I say this with hope to developing a discussion, the link between the rats pressing the right lever and those pressing the wrong one with regards to FOBT players is false. This isn't because I disagree with the FOBT's exploitation of weakness in the psyche of the player, but because I don't see them as the same breed to those who bet on sports. I often find that the people who spend hours on end, feeding hundreds into these machines, would never dream of putting the same value on a horse. What I think is crucial though, is the cool down time between events. As mentioned previously in the thread, regarding people who need a jackpot to break even, the money typically hasn't been put in at the start, but frittered away in small amounts, becoming large. In this sense, is where I see the FOBT player being completely different. In a shop, especially over the winter months, it can be between 5-30 mins between live horse racing action. In this time, the initial emotional urge to chase losses etc, can wear off and the customer can gamble more responsibly. In terms to slots, we have auto-play features that keep play going on constantly, there's no time to take a step back and think, "that was a bad idea"(or words to that effect). In defence of the FOBT, some games such as roulette do have this cool down time, but it must surely be extended further. In my opinion, this becomes the crux of the matter. FOBT's are now too common and played to be removed or severely restricted, without sinking the high street bookmaker. Regardless of your views on them, it's a significant portion of jobs, taxes, and so on. To remove from shops, would move the businesses online, and cost jobs. Additionally, with the new tax on these machines, i'd expect a concession will have to be made sooner or later, for example, and I believe most likely, by allowing more than 4 machines in a premise. If we want to stop it becoming a scourge of the high street, I think its more important to differentiate between the people they attract and your typical sport customer, and how the money is spent. After we have that information, I'd expect policy makers to be able to take the long overdue steps necessary to preserve what is a safe hobby for many, and make features such as cool down times, and similar schemes to online deposit limits, a possibility. The Gambling Commission has done well in cleaning up the industry thus far, it must now reach the corners it has keenly cast a blind eye to in the past. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. Phil, sorry about the delay in replying, didnt see your question. I only do ratings for Novices and Juveniles due to time restraints but i do try to watch every race over the jumps, even if its when i am reading form and cant remember a certain race, age and all that! It took me ages to catch up and sort the spreadsheet out as i dont use any software now, used to use Raceform but found i wasnt using the other features so it was pretty expensive just to run a ratings database. I tend to update the ratings twice a week and only takes half an hour each time, no many novice races, max 2 at each meeting. It just makes me watch every race, my idea of disciplining myself, i'm sure if i didnt need the ratings i wouldnt bother with some mediocre rubbish we get in midweek but at the end of the day these same animals end up in the good races from time to time. One thing i dont do and must at some stage address it is the Irish racing, i dont watch it hardly and find it hard to equate the form to our bunch. Going to do a tutorial on how i do my ratings one day, it may help someone or not? Wasnt meaning anyone in particular with the other comment, i just see many having an opinion at weekends and in the big races and not on the day to day stuff. Makes me wonder sometimes why punters are not interested in other races. If you have a Class 2 handicap for instance of say 16 runners, some will be running in Class 2's a lot but others will have started out in Class 4 and others dropping down from pattern company, i just think you need to keep an eye on the handicap as a whole to be fully informed. I understand some only like Graded races, not many runners, form tends to work out etc.. but at the end of the day they are not real betting opportunities most of the time i find and can be falsely run races so are not really my cup of tea, we are different and all have a different amount of time to devote to it i suppose but was just making an observation on what i see. Some good replies here, Fin i'll have a scout round for a book:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Some good replies here, Fin i'll have a scout round for a book:ok I've got a couple on the shelf 2 floors up but that seems way to far after this weekends antics! Will post em later if no one else has - one in particular I think is very, very good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. The Psychology of the Winning Horseplayer – Tom Hagerty It’s difficult to recommend a book to all without knowing their background or what they do and don’t like. It’s not exactly for novices – but some of it I did find myself knowing exactly what the author was about to say before I read it. That’s possibly no bad thing though as if that does happen when I am reading text it can reaffirm your own opinion or at least give you confidence in your own abilities. It’s an American text and the authors humour is quite dry – he seems more a system man – it all translates though. Sports Betting to Win – Steve Ward This gent has written loads of books on the Stock Market etc. The book has many insightful ‘soundbites’ throughout from successful punters/traders and has loads to offer both the novice, intermediate and advanced player. It’s not exactly pure psychology but I would say that anyone who read this book would be better equipped to turn a profit in the future and I don’t say that lightly. Chapters include, Think Differently, Bet for Profits, not Excitement, Prepare to Win, Keep Score, Manage Your Emotions, Manage the Ups and Downs, Focus on Continual Improvement & Extra Time: Going Pro. It’s not specifically about horses racing and doesn’t have any ‘system’ or selection advice. An easy read that I didn’t put down – as always only some of it was helpful to me on a personal level but well worth the money imho. One Hundred Hints for Better Betting – Mark Cotton Not about Phychology at all really but I would say this is (by far) the best book out there for the novice or intermediate punter. It does have phychological aspects to it without referring to them as such. If you are turning a profit or making a living from the game, it is still worth reading. It’s fairly old now(1994) but I don’t think there is better out there if you can find a copy. I do think that reading around the subject is so important. Even if you don't agree with what an author says, it does get you thinking in different ways and at least makes you think why your own methods are better/worse than what the text suggests. To be clear, I have no affiliation to any of the above books and if this post is considered advertsing or whatever, then please do delete it on my behalf - Cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. Cheers Saint, found the bottom one on Amazon for £8:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. Cheers for that Saint, the psychology side is something that fascinates me to be honest as I think we can all refer to moments of indiscipline. Its an area I need to work on next year and any books vaguely related will be going onto the Xmas list. With regards to what Ive read and can recommend myself....'Bounce' by Matthew Syed is an excellent book. I remember posting about it on here twelve months ago and I plan on re-reading it again to try help regain some focus heading into the winter. Syed is a former table tennis player and the book is trying to get to the bottom of what makes elite athletes elite. Psychology is touched upon as one of a number of topics in there. The book is several years old now so could be picked up for a few quid off Ebay or Amazon most probably. Has anyone read Patrick Veitch's book? The one thing I took from that book was the bit where he said he felt you needed to have a split personality to be a successful gambler, that of a brain surgeon, to calmly, meticulously research bets, and the other half that of a mad axe man, to ruthlessly smash horses with high conviction that you have a very strong opinion on. Confidence is such a key key component in betting it seems. People often talk about long losing runs and 'freak' winning runs, where anyting they touch turns to gold. I sometimes think that confidence is the reason why, if you've had a few winners and the pockets are bulging it is sometimes easier to turn away a 50:50 bet and your mental state of mind is clear and the formbook reads itself. When losing, I think ill disciplined punters can at times look for reasons to justify a bet when, hand on heart, they probably knew it shouldn't have been a bet. If they lack discipline they are scared of missing a winner so have something on, and this invariably extends the losing run! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. TheRat mentioned earlier in the thread that he doesn't see how anyone could have a bet everyday. Big stakes and limited bankroll I could understand, but when there are multiple meetings per day it's relatively easy to find a few fancies whilst maintaining discipline. But to me its about being confident about a bet. Not just finding one for the sake of it. I could find a bet everyday but that's not what I'm trying to do. Finding a 'few fancies' per day is not me. Being confident and betting on selected races is. Good replies in here. I really do find the subject interesting and will check out some of these books Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. As a slight side note I would say that if punters are finding themselves with an urge to bet and needing to have a bet every day they need to take a long hard look at themselves. It's the same urge as someone that needs a drink every day or needs to shoot heroin into their arm. You think I'm exaggerating? How many would have thought Andyjkmak had a gambling problem? I genuinely hope he has got things sorted but I was shocked to see someone like him admitting to a gambling problem because from the outside I saw him as a successful punter based on an excellent BBOTD record. There is a fine line between punter and gambling addict and as I've said earlier in the thread I know someone that crossed that line, lost his wife, his home, his job and had around 24k of debts from gambling. Being able to leave a bet as it offers no value but looks like a winner and being able to handle losses without chasing are 2 of the first things anyone needs to learn. I read a blog yesterday that was about someone having an amazing strike rate but making a loss due to a terrible staking plan, this was on football betting and the few pro gamblers I've spoken to have said staking is the main problem they face. Trying to not get excited with a big win is easier said than done when your body is producing dopamine to give you a natural high. If you type "the psychology of gambling" into google it brings up a few studies, some good reading there too. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. The Psychology of the Winning Horseplayer – Tom Hagerty It’s difficult to recommend a book to all without knowing their background or what they do and don’t like. It’s not exactly for novices – but some of it I did find myself knowing exactly what the author was about to say before I read it. That’s possibly no bad thing though as if that does happen when I am reading text it can reaffirm your own opinion or at least give you confidence in your own abilities. It’s an American text and the authors humour is quite dry – he seems more a system man – it all translates though. Sports Betting to Win – Steve Ward This gent has written loads of books on the Stock Market etc. The book has many insightful ‘soundbites’ throughout from successful punters/traders and has loads to offer both the novice, intermediate and advanced player. It’s not exactly pure psychology but I would say that anyone who read this book would be better equipped to turn a profit in the future and I don’t say that lightly. Chapters include, Think Differently, Bet for Profits, not Excitement, Prepare to Win, Keep Score, Manage Your Emotions, Manage the Ups and Downs, Focus on Continual Improvement & Extra Time: Going Pro. It’s not specifically about horses racing and doesn’t have any ‘system’ or selection advice. An easy read that I didn’t put down – as always only some of it was helpful to me on a personal level but well worth the money imho. One Hundred Hints for Better Betting – Mark Cotton Not about Phychology at all really but I would say this is (by far) the best book out there for the novice or intermediate punter. It does have phychological aspects to it without referring to them as such. If you are turning a profit or making a living from the game, it is still worth reading. It’s fairly old now(1994) but I don’t think there is better out there if you can find a copy. I do think that reading around the subject is so important. Even if you don't agree with what an author says, it does get you thinking in different ways and at least makes you think why your own methods are better/worse than what the text suggests. To be clear, I have no affiliation to any of the above books and if this post is considered advertsing or whatever, then please do delete it on my behalf - Cheers. Mark Cotton writes an article every month in Racing Ahead, too :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip. Very good point about staking plans Phil, i think this is the key to any gambling and probably the hardest to work out. We should discuss staking plans one day, it also has a big impact on the psychology side of things i reckon, with confidence etc. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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