West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=class: firstColumn]West Ham v Stoke City (20:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.15[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.24 % [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[ronang123]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November have to go with west ham here,after a super 3 points last weekend against newcastle,,,there home form is 3 wins 2 draws and 1 lose to arsenal,,,if walters and whelan are missing for stoke i have to fancy west ham bigtime,,,there 21/20 with paddy power,,,,,,stoke away form is drawn 3 lost 3,,,,,think its time for carroll to bang in a goal

[Jase82]

Under 2.5 goals @ 1.8 - Stan James. It's hard to imagine a game between a Sam Allardyce side and a Stoke side under Tony Pulis ending in a goal thriller. Stoke have been solid this season for me. Yes they've struggled for goals, but they don't look like conceding a huge amount right now, and I think their defence will lap up Big Sam's physical target man style. West Ham don't really have a plan B, so if either team want to win they're going to have to be a bit less predictable, which I'm not sure either have the know how yet to impress. If I was favouring one side over the other it would have to be West Ham because Stoke just aren't very strong away from home, and they struggle for goals. West Ham have a far superior midfield too, which will be crucial.

[RedDevil92]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November West Ham-Stoke under 2.5 @1.77 6/10 marathonbet Both teams are no goal machines. The Hamers have done really well so far after their promotion. They don't score many goals as their strikers have a combined scoring of just 2 goals. Stoke are a very phyisaclly team. They score and concede less and with these two teams facing each other, there should be less goals. GL

[pg_yid]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November Either team not to score @ evens (Stan James) 5/10 Big Sam vs Tony Pulis. Too good defences should nullify each other here, especially since both teams like to play it in the air a fair bit and have the defensive players to deal with the threat of Carroll and Crouch. I can't for the life of me see why this isn't odds on. Stoke have conceded the least goals in the Premiership (joint with Man City) and scored the second least. West Ham have only conceded one more goal than Stoke. If you take all of West Ham's games and all of Stoke's, a majority have finished wither either team not scoring. Some definite value here.

[Reverand_bookmaker]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November Not much to add really it has unders written all over it, happy to take this as part of an accumulator. nobody can say that after 11 games west ham dont deserve to be sixth in the table. Big Sam doing what he does best, they're tough to beat as Man City found out and have players in Nolan and Caroll that fit their style of play very well. Stoke havnt won away from home in the league this season and cant see them starting it here. If anyone will nick a goal it will be West Ham. West Ham to win 1-0 @ 6/1 Various

[kevshat]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November 4pts Under 2.5 goals 4/5 Stan James Stoke’s away form is absolutely awful. They haven’t won on the road in their last 15 matches and I’m not certain that is going to end here. West Ham would look good things but I’m still not certain about them in matches they are expected to win in this division. We saw in a match against Wigan which they were expected to win that expectation didn’t sit pretty. The style of these two sides is very similar and neither are free scorers so I see this being low scoring in a match I’d expect West Ham to win but wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/west-ham-vs-stoke-betting-two-less-than-pretty-styles-can-create-something-of-a-stalemate-at-upton-park

[assange58]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November Consensus! Might just have to follow along...

[AngryStyro]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November Just came to check out opinions on this game... I've gone for Stoke City (U 0.5 and 1) Pays 2.10 at Pinnacle.

[Simeon Borisof]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November Be careful with under 2.5.It is a Monday game after all...maybe over 3.5

[selcum]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November Stoke have conceded only 10 goals this season. Stoke have a solid defence and can deal with teams like West Ham. I would back draw however recent form of West Ham has made me think twice. 1.22 - West Ham or Draw (Bet365).

[blackcrow]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November Stoke @ 4.16 pinnacle Stoke at this price? I'll take it. Sure they are nothing special but their defence is solid and give little away. If West Ham want to play it long and direct then you have the team who knows this style well, and like them to negate it, as they have plenty of their own height in defence. West Ham are similar in make up to Stoke and they too have been good in defence and give little away. Still, believe Stoke have something better up front, with Crouch up top and Walter running off him. The midfield will probably have sore necks watching the ball go over their heads all game, but Crouch has done it before while Carroll can't find the net 26-54 (-19.19)

[ruscopico]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November Do Monday games tend to have more goals then Simeon?

[Aidymac]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November

Do Monday games tend to have more goals then Simeon?

No. West Brom 2 v 0 Southampton QPR 1 v West Ham 2 Everton 2 v Newcastle 2 Everton 1 v Man Utd 0 I see no proof that Monday has an relevance for goals. 2 over/2 under so far this season. Don't know how someone could go for Over 3.5 when Stoke are involved, unless West Ham win 3-1 or 4-0 which is unlikely.

[Fader]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November West Ham vs Stoke - 3pts West Ham win @ 2.00 Bet365 Id put West Ham above a 50/50 chance of winning this. Stoke not won in 15 games, scoring just 9 in those 15. West Ham won 4 out of 5 at home. We (West Ham) have defended immensely this season keeping clean sheets against Man City and Newcastle. The form of Reid/Tompkins/Collins has been very good. Benayoun finally getting in the team, the form of Noble and the likes of Jarvis and Diame creating for Carroll really makes us a threat and I feel we have enough in our defense in the air (especially if Collins comes back in to partner Reid) to negate the threat of Crouch and co. 0-0 would not surprise me here, but I'm swaying for a 1-0 (Nolan) : )

[ruscopico]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November Thanks for that Aidy, not a lot to add on the analysis front, but my system has spat this out as an unders. I'm on it!

[Aidymac]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November

Thanks for that Aidy, not a lot to add on the analysis front, but my system has spat this out as an unders. I'm on it!

Unders certainly is the most feasible option, normally is when Stoke are involved. I think they lack going forward at the moment, can see West Ham winning 1-0 or 2-0 personally. I think you would be unlucky if you backed unders and it didn't win.

[CFCWatson]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November West Ham @ 2.05 Sportsbet Nolan First Scorer @ 7.00 Sportsbet That's more or less along the lines of what I was thinking, Fedar.. 0-0 wouldn't surprise me, but I think West Ham have the slight edge here. They can hold their own defensively and are more then capable of getting a winner. Nolan's disallowed goal against City springs to mind - and speaking of Nolan, his overall form this season has been quite good, especially in regards to goal scoring. I'll back him in here.

[vinnyno10]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November Tough game tonight.. :p Most have pointed out what is already obvious, Yes they do play the same style but West Ham should edge it, yes Stoke are poor away and struggle to score but I reckon there are better bets available on this one.. Stoke have only 1 clean sheet this season, at Anfield where they frustrated misfiring Liverpool and picked up quite a few bookings in that game, I think it was an obvious plan by Pulis to come away with a point there. If they are to get anything from this game they HAVE to score.. For me they are u underachieving at the minute, they have a better squad each year since the promotion to the EPL. I reckon BTTS 1.90 with PP is a good shout here Also given the disciplinary record, West Ham H 1.3 yellow cards/ per home game, Stoke 3.4 yellow cards, per away game, betting on cards could be an alternative bet.. Both Collins & Tomkins 4 yellows each are expected to start for the home side, N'zonzi, Adam, Whelan etc all get some tackles in for Stoke. OVER 30 booking points is priced @ 2.10 PP which is good enough for me Stoke OVER 10 booking points @ 1.70 PP

[allthethings]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November

No. West Brom 2 v 0 Southampton QPR 1 v West Ham 2 Everton 2 v Newcastle 2 Everton 1 v Man Utd 0 I see no proof that Monday has an relevance for goals. 2 over/2 under so far this season. Don't know how someone could go for Over 3.5 when Stoke are involved, unless West Ham win 3-1 or 4-0 which is unlikely.

Right, or like Sunderland winning 3-1 at Fulham yesterday. My point is, and I've been making this point over and over again at this site for five years, is that the one thing I've learned about football betting is that goals are essentially random events. Now, it is true that Stoke tend toward unders, so if you can get unders for 1.8 or 1.9, it's value. But you can't. My book is offering 1.68 for unders, meaning a $20 bet would win me $13.61. That means I have to win three of five to break even...Stoke have gone under five out of seven away, and West Ham have three overs, three unders at home, so that's decent as a bet, I guess. But it's not that great. The only great totals bet I've seen is the totals bet that gives you more than $20 for your $20 bet. Overs on this game are 2.32, because of the entire world betting unders. Overs may not seem very likely, but it offers far more value. Those of you who know me on here know that I go for best-priced overs in many leagues. Premier isn't one of them, because best-priced overs don't consistently win enough for me. But it's close. I've been keeping track of this for a few years now, and best-priced overs in Premier...this means, when odds first appear at my book, the best odds on offer for either overs or unders, meaning just the biggest plus number in sight...have gone 15-17 since I started keeping track. $20 on that wins you $26.40. Multiply that by 15 (not all the best-priced overs were that high, but hear me out), and you get $396. Your 17 losses cost you $340. You just made money. I'm on the draw in this game, and I'm letting the total go. I'm just sayin'...in general, when everybody's on unders is when you should be going on overs, and vice versa.

[Aidymac]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November I am pretty confident Sunderland would not have scored 3 goals if there was not an early red card, games with early red cards always tend to go over. You sort of contradicted yourself there. Surely if you fancied overs tonight (which i am gathering from your comment in general, when everybody's on unders is when you should be going on overs, and vice versa., the last bet in the world you would be doing is a draw? As it wipes 0-0 and 1-1 out of the equation. If you are backing the draw, you must also fancy unders. Yes, goals are random events. Everything is random, isn't it? Corners, yellow cards, winning team, everything is random. Every bet someone places is based on logic. In tonight's match, the logic is that Stoke are a hard team to play against, they make it difficult for the opposition, they don't score many goals, the results prove this theory, so as a matter of fact, there is logic behind backing under's tonight, it is not just a pick from the clouds, or random as you call it.

[assange58]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November

Now, it is true that Stoke tend toward unders, so if you can get unders for 1.8 or 1.9, it's value. But you can't. I'm on the draw in this game, and I'm letting the total go. I'm just sayin'...in general, when everybody's on unders is when you should be going on overs, and vice versa.

Thanks for that. Its nice to hear advice that takes into account some of the big picture factors. You make some extremely good points, yet I think its not always prudent to favor macro (league) trends over micro (team or match) trends. This game is a case in point. As just about everyone has said, Stoke have a long record of (1) not scoring and (2) not conceding. By my count, in last 25 matches (EPL & cups) Stoke have played only 6 games with over 3 total goals. Over the last 19 EPL away matches, again there have been only 6 with 3 or more goals. This suggests a pretty clear trend which to my mind should not be ignored. Your points about value are well taken and I was able to find under 2.5 @ 1.74 (Bovada) which I find very decent. I also think the most likely outcomes are W Ham 1-0, 2-0 or Draw 1-1. Still deciding on a punt for those results.

[NunoC]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November West Ham receives Stoke with both teams separated by 6 points. West Ham is the 7th with 18 points while Stoke with 12 points occupies the 14th position. West Ham is doing a good start of season, if they win this match they go directly to the 5th place in the league that gives access to a European competition. Playing at home the Hammers have been very strong, with a very balanced and organized defense and Andy Carroll in attack that seems to be returning to the good times. They have been a very difficult team to defeat for their opponents. Stoke comes from a home win by the minimum margin against the QPR, however although I believe that they will make life difficult for West Ham because they are a strong physically team my bet goes to the home team because Stoke have many difficulties when acting as a visitor, In 6 games they have 3 draws and 3 defeats. West [email protected] at Bet365

[Fader]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November

West Ham @ 2.05 Sportsbet Nolan First Scorer @ 7.00 Sportsbet That's more or less along the lines of what I was thinking, Fedar.. 0-0 wouldn't surprise me, but I think West Ham have the slight edge here. They can hold their own defensively and are more then capable of getting a winner. Nolan's disallowed goal against City springs to mind - and speaking of Nolan, his overall form this season has been quite good, especially in regards to goal scoring. I'll back him in here.

Four of his five goals have been at home. Two of those four were first goalscorer. It's a good bet Id say.

[Fader]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November

Tough game tonight.. :p Most have pointed out what is already obvious, Yes they do play the same style but West Ham should edge it, yes Stoke are poor away and struggle to score but I reckon there are better bets available on this one.. Stoke have only 1 clean sheet this season, at Anfield where they frustrated misfiring Liverpool and picked up quite a few bookings in that game, I think it was an obvious plan by Pulis to come away with a point there. If they are to get anything from this game they HAVE to score.. For me they are u underachieving at the minute, they have a better squad each year since the promotion to the EPL. I reckon BTTS 1.90 with PP is a good shout here Also given the disciplinary record, West Ham H 1.3 yellow cards/ per home game, Stoke 3.4 yellow cards, per away game, betting on cards could be an alternative bet.. Both Collins & Tomkins 4 yellows each are expected to start for the home side, N'zonzi, Adam, Whelan etc all get some tackles in for Stoke. OVER 30 booking points is priced @ 2.10 PP which is good enough for me Stoke OVER 10 booking points @ 1.70 PP

Don't be fooled by West Ham's yellows. We had one game against QPR where we got 8 yellows and QPR got 2 and a sending off. Since then we have average 2 yellows a game.

[ashj22]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November my prediction on this is whm 2-1 stoke

[allthethings]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November

I am pretty confident Sunderland would not have scored 3 goals if there was not an early red card' date=' games with early red cards always tend to go over. You sort of contradicted yourself there. Surely if you fancied overs tonight (which i am gathering from your comment [b']in general, when everybody's on unders is when you should be going on overs, and vice versa., the last bet in the world you would be doing is a draw? As it wipes 0-0 and 1-1 out of the equation. If you are backing the draw, you must also fancy unders. Yes, goals are random events. Everything is random, isn't it? Corners, yellow cards, winning team, everything is random. Every bet someone places is based on logic. In tonight's match, the logic is that Stoke are a hard team to play against, they make it difficult for the opposition, they don't score many goals, the results prove this theory, so as a matter of fact, there is logic behind backing under's tonight, it is not just a pick from the clouds, or random as you call it.

I'm on the draw because I think it offers a lot of value, and as I said, I don't take best-priced overs in Premier...and I agree that unders are more likely than overs when Stoke play. But I wasn't questioning the logic of the bet on unders, just that when 99 out of 100 people are on the unders, the value disappears from the bookies' odds. People's picks aren't random, it's events that are random. By my way of thinking, what that means is, if every outcome is a coin flip...50-50...you should be on the side that offers you more than your stake, not less. Now, I agree that by the logic here, this game should go under, and as you mention I'm on the draw...so I don't think this one is 50-50 for unders...but it's not 90-10, either, and that's the way people are betting. When I see consensus, that's when I run screaming.

[neilovan]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November Personally I'm not crazy on the over under 2.5 goal thing. The Hammers have been remarkably consistent this year at home comparing 1st and 2nd half. Played 6, W 2, drawn 3 lost 1 in both halves. 1st half goals 5 for 2 against for a goals per half average of 1.2 2nd half goals are 5 and 3 for goals per half average of 1.3 Their goals per game average is 2.5 . I think the nolan/carrol combination is a good one. Kevin Nolan has played under big Sam at bolton , and I definitely think he can help bring the best out of Carrol. Hammers should win it, but I think it will be by 1 goal. I like WHAM winning margin of 1 looks a nice price at 13/5 on bet365 Neil.

[allthethings]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November

Thanks for that. Its nice to hear advice that takes into account some of the big picture factors. You make some extremely good points, yet I think its not always prudent to favor macro (league) trends over micro (team or match) trends. This game is a case in point. As just about everyone has said, Stoke have a long record of (1) not scoring and (2) not conceding. By my count, in last 25 matches (EPL & cups) Stoke have played only 6 games with over 3 total goals. Over the last 19 EPL away matches, again there have been only 6 with 3 or more goals. This suggests a pretty clear trend which to my mind should not be ignored. Your points about value are well taken and I was able to find under 2.5 @ 1.74 (Bovada) which I find very decent. I also think the most likely outcomes are W Ham 1-0, 2-0 or Draw 1-1. Still deciding on a punt for those results.

Stoke have gone over 31% of the time on away their last 19 games, then. A bit less than one of three, in other words. West Ham are 3-3 this year. Someone smarter than me will have to to figure out how all that computes. I agree that all this points toward unders. I'm just not gonna follow the herd here. My macro view got started because I noticed that in certain leagues, the over/under numbers were close to 50-50 but the odds seldom were. A case in point is Ligue 1 in France...it has a reputation for being a very tight league, with teams employing negative tactics and not being able to finish worth a damn. Since I've been keeping track, best-priced overs in France have gone 35-26. In Scotland, another league with a reputation for boredom on the pitch, it's 26-14. Those 32 games that I've tracked in England weren't Man Utd home against Wigan. They were always games just like this: Two teams similarly matched, where one is favored but just barely, where both have trouble scoring and play defensively, where the danger of a tactical low-scoring draw is always a danger, and yet these basically finished 50-50, and at odds of between 2.1 something and 2.3 something. What does that tell you?

[neilovan]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November

My macro view got started because I noticed that in certain leagues, the over/under numbers were close to 50-50 but the odds seldom were. A case in point is Ligue 1 in France...it has a reputation for being a very tight league, with teams employing negative tactics and not being able to finish worth a damn. Since I've been keeping track, best-priced overs in France have gone 35-26. In Scotland, another league with a reputation for boredom on the pitch, it's 26-14.

French League statistics ..... Between home odds of 2.0 (even money) and 2.5 it is the lowest league for both teams to score percentage out of all the major European leagues. Last year the results were the same .... 47% of the time BTTS occurred. Other leagues are are at 73% and 2 league at 67% at these odds. A massive difference. Avoid the French league at home odds between 2 and 2.5 if you are betting both teams to score.