Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November

[staffy]

[TABLE=class: couponTable] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Liverpool v Newcastle United (16:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.66 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6.1 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.39 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Aidymac]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November *Newcastle WIN @ 6.6 Betfair* Again, Liverpool are way too short at home, the away price smacks of value, i think they should be around 4.0 at most, Newcastle are a very good side and are being underestimated. Liverpool @ 1.59 is ridiculous. Liverpool have only won 1 of their last 5 premier league home games, and that was a 1-0 win against Reading. Newcastle have drawn their last 3 on the road, but they are definately more than capable of getting a result at Anfield with players like Ba, Cisse, Ben Arfa, Coloccini etc. Liverpool struggle for goals in general, so this should be a tight affair, and 6.6 for Newcastle is a long way out in my opinion.

[Jase82]

Demba ba is a doubt for this fixture...

[Reverand_bookmaker]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November With Tiote still suspended Ba being out to is a big miss, I wouldnt be backing Liverpool away without Gerrard and Suarez and like liverpool Newcastle dont have much in the way of reserves on the bench. Liverpool have had some bad results without playing terribly, Suarez looked sharp on Saturday and was unlucky to have a goal chalked off. I think they might take this one but definately too short @ 1.61

[ThemanwiththeSTATS]

When people talk about Liverpool they always claim they had a hatfull of chances and should have scored more. Now this has been going on for 18 months and quite frankly they need a clinical scorer sooner rather then later. Suarez is a weapon but he seems to butcher a lot of straight forward chances. I always laughed about the critique of Mario Gomez because he is absolutely clinical but not anywhere near the talent of Suarez. I would rather Gomez because what counts are goals and especially in big games. Anyway back to this match anyone thinking of backing Liverpool at the price is absolutely mad. Form is ordinary at best and the fact that they have managed 2 goals in 4 home games basically sums up the dull average side they are. If Newcastle miss ba and co then unders looks a foregone conclusion. I think 0-0 or 1-1 looks the likely scenario here.

[neilovan]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November Wow, Just looked at bet365 odds for this game and it has me shaking my head:clap I think they have Liverpool completely overpriced. This team is so overrated and the stats back it up. They laboured to a 1-0 win over reading (relegation team) and have managed 2 goals in a home game just once this season. They have conceded 2 goals at home 3 times and have managed to score 4 goals in 5 games at home (compare to Man U 13 in 4 , Chelsea 13 in 5, Man City 11 in 5). It's mid table form , maybe 7th or 8th at a push. They don't score and they show no improvement week on week. They get up for the big games, and are strangely flat for the others ... Suarez seems to make bad decisions (pass when shoot and visa versa). Completely disjointed and slow in attack ! Newcastle are scoring some goals, drawn 3 lost 1 away (to chelsea 2-0) The 6.1 to 1 for the newcastle win is a nice gamble bet. :nana Take it on to Man U to win 2-0 and you get 42-1 Take it on to Man U to win 2-1 and you also get 42-1 approx:nana (I've got dancing banana's on my brain , new girlfriend :) I will take those bets as I just can't see liverpool winning this game. I would also look at the Double chance bet on newcastle 11/8 which is a nice price. Neil.

[DCFC4Life]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November

*Newcastle WIN @ 6.6 Betfair* Again, Liverpool are way too short at home, the away price smacks of value, i think they should be around 4.0 at most, Newcastle are a very good side and are being underestimated. Liverpool @ 1.59 is ridiculous. Liverpool have only won 1 of their last 5 premier league home games, and that was a 1-0 win against Reading. Newcastle have drawn their last 3 on the road, but they are definately more than capable of getting a result at Anfield with players like Ba, Cisse, Ben Arfa, Coloccini etc. Liverpool struggle for goals in general, so this should be a tight affair, and 6.6 for Newcastle is a long way out in my opinion.

Lay Liverpool at home? Seems to be a winning trend this season :ok

[sajtion]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November liverpool have a mixture of young talent and experienced players. watching them against everton last weeks tells me what they don't lack is aggressiveness and determination and are quick passing kind of in your face...let's have a game type of attitude. they do create chances although unless it falls to suarez who is little arrogant ******* and always keen on the ball they don't capitalise on it. i can see them holding their own at home as newcastle are much more effective going forward and it may likely be draw

[oti.kevin prince]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November Newcastle not to lose at more than one goal at 1.50 is value i can't see liverpool scoring 2 goals without conceeding. They lost last night 3-1 against swansea, while newcastle had a week break. I think that Cisse and Ameobi brothers will score at least one goal

[Dzontra85]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November

*Newcastle WIN @ 6.6 Betfair* Again, Liverpool are way too short at home, the away price smacks of value, i think they should be around 4.0 at most, Newcastle are a very good side and are being underestimated. Liverpool @ 1.59 is ridiculous. Liverpool have only won 1 of their last 5 premier league home games, and that was a 1-0 win against Reading. Newcastle have drawn their last 3 on the road, but they are definately more than capable of getting a result at Anfield with players like Ba, Cisse, Ben Arfa, Coloccini etc. Liverpool struggle for goals in general, so this should be a tight affair, and 6.6 for Newcastle is a long way out in my opinion.

I really like this prediction.This is not same Liverpool like 7,8,or 10 years ago.And 1.59 looks ridiculous that should be price when they playing homa against Norwich or Southampton. Also Newcastle have couple more days for rest since they didnt play mid week cup games. Just to make sure I will try X2 ( 2.21 in local bet) [h=3][/h]

[Jase82]

Don't forget that I think only Brad Jones and Joe Allan started against both Everton and Swansea. With other players like Jordan Henderson starting against Swansea and coming on as a sub against Everton. Suarez and Gerrard only played the second half last night. So the issue of having a weeks rest isn't particularly relevant here IMO. Pepe Reina should return on Sunday too. Although I agree the value is clearly on Newcastle.

[SALVO7ITALY]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November Newcastle are a much stronger and organised side than Liverpool whereas Liverpool are very much a team in transition. Liverpool haven't got the players to play the way he wants them to play. I can see Cabaye exploiting the large defense spaces Liverpool leave behind when attacking and hit Liverpool on the counter attack constantly. Cannot understand why Liverpool are so short to win the game so a Newcastle +1 handicap seems realistic and outstanding value Newcastle +1 @ 2.45

[Feduloff]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November Newcastle boss Alan Pardew concedes that he may make the journey to Merseyside without his leading goalscorer, but believes his squad has the strength in depth to cope with such an absence. "I think he's 50-50, at best," Pardew told the Evening Chronicle on Ba's chances of lining up against Liverpool. "We've got Papiss (Cisse) back on the goal trail and Shola and Sammy (Ameobi) so we're happy with that. "It is very important to have that. "Papiss is fit and well and we are looking forward to seeing him this weekend."

[oti.kevin prince]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November i think that without Demba Ba, Papiss will play better beacuse he will have all the atention of his mates. Papiss to score anytime ​is another good bet

[Pay Day]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November Cisse has been awful this season. I think much depends on the formation of Newcastle, who have been brave starting with 2 away from home this season. That clearly hasn't worked for them, but I think their best bet will get Ameobi to start and Cisse roaming around him as the big man wins his fair share of headers. The value is on Newcastle for sure, losing Tiote not too much of a blow IMO, in fact he is just as likely to give away stupid FKs against the clever Suarez that put his team on the back foot. Jonas and Cabaye can do a decent job in front of the defence and are usually more disciplined

[hoddspur]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November The price on Liverpool is laughable even if Ba is out.

[Hutcho_CFC]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November 4/1 on the DNB on the better team even without demba ba, against a team who have already lost 3-0 at home to west brom... I think i had a double take on that one... Absolutely crazy odds. :)

[SpiritOfLisbon]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November

4/1 on the DNB on the better team even without demba ba, against a team who have already lost 3-0 at home to west brom... I think i had a double take on that one... Absolutely crazy odds. :)

No, that was at the Hawthorns.

[tomlubbo]

I scoffed at the overpricing of liverpool utterly amusing, definately value in the newcastle win and newcastle +1 to be honest i thought the asian handicap would go liverpools way or 0 so for me Newcastle +1 AH @ 2.025 with Bet365

[Feduloff]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November Newcastle striker Demba Ba could return to fitness in time for the game. Magpies boss Alan Pardew said Ba, who is recovering from a calf problem, has a good chance of being in contention for the game against Brendan Rodgers' side. Newcastle +1 AH http://www.teamtalk.com/match/preview/978/8219685/Liverpool-v-Newcastle-preview

[Hutcho_CFC]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November

No' date=' that was at the Hawthorns.[/quote'] Oh yeah, of course, my mistake.

[RedDevil92]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November According to Pardew, Ba has good chances to feature here.

[NunoC]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November If Ba would play, I think Newcastle is favorite

[SaltandSauce]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November Liverpool vs Newcastle - Newcastle Win @ 6.0 w/ Bet365 The odds just look far too good not to consider a Newcastle win. Even without Ba, the team has enough firing power in attack to score some goals. Don't get me wrong, if Ba can pass a late fitness test tomorrow, it should certainly help in their favour. Newcastle will be going into this game looking for their third straight win. Liverpool on the other hand are having to try pick themselves up after losing to a good Swansea side in the Capital One Cup. Looking at the stats, it states the last time Newcastle won at Anfield was back 1994, but looking at odds of 5/1 are just far too good for me to be turning down!

[kevshat]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November 2pts Newcastle to beat Liverpool 5/1 Blue Square Newcastle look a huge price to me in this match. Defensively they are as good as most in the Premier League with Fabricio Coloccini an absolute rock at the back and they have more than enough going forward to cause a loose Liverpool defence problems. There’s no way I can ignore 5/1 on Newcastle here against a Liverpool side who struggle for goals at the best of times and for results at Anfield right now. The value is very much in the visitors here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/liverpool-vs-newcastle-betting-newcastle-look-good-value-to-leave-anfield-with-three-points

[Dink]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November I don't understand this Newcastle mania. Seems like Liverpool killed many of your bets in the past and you guys are taking this too close to your hearts. In their past few games, Liverpool looked rather solid and organized and I can't say that for Newcastle. Bookies did an excellent job once again. They know that the market will be split into those who will take Liverpool on -1 to get some value around 2.4 and those who will pick Newcastle on +1 to get something near those odds. So bookies are hoping for a draw or Liverpool to get this by exactly one goal. News from Newcastle were going in some stupid way. I read something like Ba wont feature and things like that. Same thing is happening over and over again. In my opinion this was meant to "convince" the betting community that Newcastle will have trouble scoring goals. In this scenario some people would also find a value in unders or Liverpool to win to nil. I will do a small bet on this one because I'd like to watch the game and enjoy it because I believe that Liverpool is getting better with each new week. From the news and the media atmosphere I can say that BTTS is the safest bet. Liverpool to win by exactly 1 goal is highly possible and correct score of 2/1 looks good for a unit.

[neilovan]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November

I don't understand this Newcastle mania. Seems like Liverpool killed many of your bets in the past and you guys are taking this too close to your hearts. In their past few games, Liverpool looked rather solid and organized and I can't say that for Newcastle. Bookies did an excellent job once again. So bookies are hoping for a draw or Liverpool to get this by exactly one goal.

Look the bookies are not hoping for a draw because Newcastle are 11/8 double chance. This price on Liverpool is simply based on the past history of the fixture. Liverpool have creamed Newcastle in this fixture for 10 seasons. Here are the basic head to head stats. Liverpool vs. Newcastle Date HT FT 2011-12-30 1-1 3-1 2011-05-01 1-0 3-0 2009-05-03 2-0 3-0 2008-03-08 2-0 3-0 2006-09-20 1-0 2-0 2005-12-26 2-0 2-0 2004-12-19 2-1 3-1 2004-05-15 0-1 1-1 2002-09-02 0-0 2-2 Liverpool have not scored many goals this season, but their opposition has been tough for the first three home games (Man City , Arsenal, Man United - 2 losses and a draw) . Their results against the journeymen of the Premiership (stoke, reading a draw and a win with 1 goal in 2 games), labouring to a win over relegation bound reading. Last season they finished the season winning 1 game in 5 , or 2 in 9. SO they have won 3 of their last 14 at home. (Compare this to Everton 9 wins, 3 draws 2 loses in their last 14 home games) Last season at home Liverpool had 12 games where they started the match as favourites at odds of 1.6 or less. Of those 12 games if you backed them , you won 4 times and lost 8 times. The 4 wins came against newcastle (3-1) at odds of 1.53, QPR (1-0) at odds of 1.33, Wolves (2-1) odds of 1.36, and Bolton (3-1) at odds of 1.4. So 2 of their wins came against relegated teams last year, and their only win at home this season is against Reading (1-0) at odds of 1.33. The bottom line : Liverpool is stinker of a bet at home. Forget the emotion, loyalty, blind faith etc etc, just go with the numbers. If you back them , your best winning odds are about 1.53, and they have lost you the bet 2 times for every time you win. Lets compare last season to this in terms of playing personnel. Personally I think Liverpool were a better attacking force last year. Carrol was still finding his feet, but he was played sporadically , and his confidence was down. Regardless of these facts, they were still playing 2 genuine strikers. Not 1 by himself with sporadic, out of position support. Yet they still scored few goals, and did not live up to their favourites tag. So why should they start bombing in goals now !!! The one stat that stands out is more second half goals than 1st half. Liverpools 5 home games have netted 3 goals in the 1st half and 7 in the 2nd half (only Spurs have had fewer first half goals 2) Newcastle away are also pretty dismal at scoring. They have 4 1st half goals and 8 second half goals in their 4 away games You can see over / under 2nd half goal stats for the English Premier League here : http://www.soccer-betbrain.com/over-under-goals-2nd-half More 2nd half goals is even money ( its an excellent price for a strong statistical probability). There is no value on Liverpool even if they have dominated this fixture. The overs look scary because these teams show no consistency or improvement in scoring goals The DC Newcastle looks reasonable at 11/8 The away win is now 9/2 on bet365 (shortened) but still represents a nice value bet. I have the DC already and the Newcastle win on a gamble multiple. Good luck whatever you do, Neil.

[Hitch]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November Hi guys! I haven't been on here in quite a long time! I haven't been betting at all, but decided to start again bit by bit :) I agree with most people here that the value is definitely on Newcastle, those are some crazy odds! I think the punters are looking too much into their h2h @ Anfield. Newcastle to win @ 6.2 (1 unit) Betfair Lay Liverpool @ 1.63 (4.5 units) That way, if Liverpool win, I'll lose 3.8 units. If the teams draw, I'll win 3.5 units. And if Newcastle win, I'll win 9.7 units. Seems like a nice value bet to me :)

[pg_yid]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November Not much to add, have taken Newcastle +1AH @ 1.98 with Bet365 with 5/10. Whilst Liverpool are a side in transition, which makes them perhaps harder to bet on than most teams, they still look criminally underpriced as usual here.

[hebert10]

Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November Liverpool v Newcastle Newcastle DNB @ 15/4 Coral I'm with everyone in laying Liverpool here, the price on Liverpool is ridiculous given how poor they have been over recent months. I don't think it'll be easy for Newcastle travelling to Anfield but with with Liverpool missing so many chances at home all the time and the firepower Newcastle have up top I think Newcastle have a bit more to offer here. I think the Liverpool performance will be solely based on how Suarez plays whilst Newcastle have a number of players that have stepped up for them in recent months. Can see this game being tight and that's why i've gone for the DNB, I think a goal will probably win this one and I favour the away team at these odds.