Fedar Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November I agree with everybody saying there's no value in Liverpool. However, given the crucial importance of the game for them (another failure to win at home will be too much) and their excellent performance vs. Everton, I think they will probably grab the victory. Hence, the market that is more attractive to me is "goal/goal". 1.80 looks like quite inviting price. First of all, I don't see how Liverpool will fail to score here. I agree that they way too many chances and lack clinical striker. They do struggle sometimes to score at home, but mainly against teams that close themselves too much. Newcastle is not that sort of team - they play more open and attacking football. Besides, as I pointed out, Liverpool has special motivation to win here as they won only once at home since the beginning of the season and it's already November. They will start attacking fiercely from the first minute and will definitely find the net. The big question is whether Newcastle will grab a goal at Anfield. I think most likely they will, even if Ba does not start (latest info - he will be fit). They missed to score a goal only twice this season - against United and Chelsea. They play very technical and attacking football, and Liverpool's style with lots of short passes among defenders and midfield should definitely results in some mistakes that will create at least a few great chances for the guests to strike on the break. Also, I am expecting Cisse to start finally getting his form back. Overall, it seems to me that the chances of both scoring well exceed the 50% barrier. Goal/Goal @ 1.80 (365) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grease2000 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November Im hoping for a liverpool win but I think ti will be a draw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CFCWatson Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November Completely agree with the majority here and I've taken Newcastle +1 at 2.05 with my local TAB. I don't really have anything else to add as everybody has given the bet plenty of justification - My initial thoughts were that Newcastle were good enough to get something from this match up, and the odds on offer make it impossible to ignore. Good luck everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Visage987 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November noob to the forum, have taken Newcastle DNB as well, good luck..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November Ok fellas, lets get one thing straight...the Geordies record is dreadfull at Anfield, the last goal THEY scored was in the 2004-05 season when a fat Paddy Kliuvert netted....last season goal was an OG....now the Scousers do raise there game for the bigger teams/ matches but are Newcastle one of those.... I might be wrong but i wouldnt be banging my money on the Toon value or not........& there my team... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November Taken from NUFC.COM 2011/12: Lost 1-3 OG 2010/11: Lost 0-3 2008/09: Lost 0-3 2007/08: Lost 0-3 2006/07: Lost 0-2 2005/06: Lost 0-2 2004/05: Lost 1-3 Kluivert 2003/04: Drew 1-1 Ameobi 2003/04: Lost 1-2 Robert (FAC) 2002/03: Drew 2-2 Speed, Shearer 2001/02: Lost 0-3 2000/01: Lost 0-3 1999/00: Lost 1-2 Shearer 1998/99: Lost 2-4 Solano, Andersson 1997/98: Lost 0-1 1996/97: Lost 3-4 Gillespie, Asprilla, Barton 1995/96: Lost 3-4 Ferdinand, Ginola, Asprilla 1995/96: Won 1-0 Watson (LC) 1994/95: Lost 0-2 1993/94: Won 2-0 Lee, Cole Long time since they last won there....records are there to be broken...GL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November If you back teams that you think will win, in the long run you will be out of pocket. If you consistently find value, you will have plenty in your pocket. I think Liverpool are more likely to win than Newcastle, maybe Liverpool 4/6 Newcastle 3/1, So when i got Newcastle @ 6.6 on Betfair, that smacks of value. Yes, Liverpool are more likely winners, yet i still bet on Newcastle. You have to back the value. As i was once told by someone......... A guy who fancied United at home to Wigan, United are 1.25, the guy says "United have to win, i am lumping on them", you then ask him the question "So your backing United without looking at the price? Would you back them at 1.05?" Every bet you place has to represent value, or you can forget about any long term returns. So yes, i do think Liverpool should win. But they are unbackable at that price which gives us value on Newcastle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November The draw @ 3.8 is a far better value bet than the straight Newcastle win. This season opposing favorites with underdogs of between 6.0 and 7.99, the underdogs have gone 3-3-4. The past three seasons the tally is 16-39-81. Basically, the draw happens twice as often as the underdog winning at this level. I'm on the draw here and at QPR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helginho Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November I've gone for Newcastle X2 @ 2.4, a draw should be more than possible against a lacklustre Liverpool side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November The draw @ 3.8 is a far better value bet than the straight Newcastle win. This season opposing favorites with underdogs of between 6.0 and 7.99, the underdogs have gone 3-3-4. The past three seasons the tally is 16-39-81. Basically, the draw happens twice as often as the underdog winning at this level. I'm on the draw here and at QPR. This never happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 So yes, i do think Liverpool should win. But they are unbackable at that price which gives us value on Newcastle. Aidy do you ever look into the Asian Handicap market? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November Aidy do you ever look into the Asian Handicap market? You know what Jase, i asked myself the same question today. I would have been quids in this weekend if i was doing the Asian Handicap, fancied Swansea, Reading, Newcastle and West Ham not to loose, and all of them bloody drew. :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November You know what Jase, i asked myself the same question today. I would have been quids in this weekend if i was doing the Asian Handicap, fancied Swansea, Reading, Newcastle and West Ham not to loose, and all of them bloody drew. :eek Ever thought about spread betting, buy & sell supremacies. mini-performances etc etc, good money to be made... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November Ever thought about spread betting' date=' buy & sell supremacies. mini-performances etc etc, good money to be made...[/quote'] I don't have a clue how spread betting works mate, if i am totally honest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November If your interested have a look around the Sporting Index website, it explains the buying/ selling side of it, or i can pm you a rough guide.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CFCWatson Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Re: Liverpool v Newcastle > Sunday 4th November Completely agree with the majority here and I've taken Newcastle +1 at 2.05 with my local TAB. I don't really have anything else to add as everybody has given the bet plenty of justification - My initial thoughts were that Newcastle were good enough to get something from this match up, and the odds on offer make it impossible to ignore. Good luck everyone. Happy with that. Well done to all who took the handicap and or draw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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