Racing For Rupert

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.40 Brighton - 1pt win Dolly Colman @ 22/1 (VC) This mare has only won once from 27 starts which doesn't make her the most attractive betting proposition in the world but often runs her race and it's surprising that she's only had 6 turf runs because she appeared to have no issues with the surface (first three on three out of six starts). All of those runs came right at the start of her career and two of them came at this track. Those two runs resulted in a neck 2nd off a mark of 45 and a 4 1/4l 3rd off 47. She runs off 44 today and she's run quite well the last few times on the all-weather and especially with the cheekpieces applied the last twice. I don't think 1m2f tactical races at Lingfield play to her strengths so they can be upgraded and it's interesting she returns to quick turf today which can suit. Although her win came over 1m4f I think this trip suits her just as well. She should love this if they go a solid gallop which looks perfectly plausible with the quantity of runners in the field and as some of them do like to go forward. She may well flatter to deceive again but she ought to run a decent race and you never know, she might just get her head in front today!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Khefyn 4th of 15 at 33s. They're typically running well but not getting in front.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Two at Ponte: 6.20 Pontefract - 2pts win Hakuna Matata @ 14/1 (VC) Michael Dods' horses are running well at present and the same can't be said for when this horse ended his season last year in October. The yard were struggling badly for form and last summer's handicap form where this one was very consistent off higher marks would see him win this I reckon. He hasn't pulled up many trees in two starts this term either but can understandably be forgiven his reappearance run and shaped better last time at Newcastle when the winner pulled several lengths clear to make his run seem worse than it probably was. He was also weak in the market on this occasion. He should be spot on for this evening and has been given every chance by the handicapper - dropped 3lbs from that day and Connor Beasley who has been used very effectively for Dods takes off his 7lb claim to leave this one with a big hope at the weights. He's needed a couple of runs in the past to work himself into form so today could be the day he bounces back. Conditions suit and the track should hold little fear for this horse whose two wins have come at testing tracks in Newcastle and Carlisle so the stiff finish ought to be up his street and I think he'll run well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 8.20 Pontefract - 2pts win Reset City @ 7/1 (Bet365) I backed this one last year at Epsom when given a mountain to climb by Tom Queally and she did well to even work her way through into a 4l second never mind reach the winner. That came off a 3lb higher mark than today and although she's yet to get off the mark she's run many sound races in handicaps and has switched yards from Ian Williams to Mark Johnston now. That's an interesting move and if anyone's going to get her to win a race it'll probably be Johnston. She has a short-head second off a mark of 65 to her name at Windsor so she should be competitive off 61 and although she ended last season on a sour note I'm hopeful her new yard can revive her. The fact she stays a bit further than the 1m2f on offer this evening can help at a track like Pontefract and she's shown she can handle tight bends as well to make the combination not too daunting this evening at the Yorkshire venue. Although she's been off the track for a while her previous reappearance efforts have seen her beaten 2 1/4l after an absence of over 18 months and the same difference last year having been away for the best part of 9 months so she can go well fresh and everything seems right for her this evening to hopefully break her duck.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert That is the one!!! Really needed that. Everything perfect for Hakuna Matata with regards to trip, ground, course and handicap mark. They go a good gallop up front and Beasley says go as they straighten and he quickened up very well down the outside to sweep by. A win for Reset City and it would be a superb little couple of hours. Too much to ask maybe though!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert No great surprise to see Reset City in 2nd! Ho hum.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.00 Lingfield - 1pt win Glens Wobbly @ 14/1 (Bet365) Wide open, poor race this and at the prices I'm more than content to side with Jonathan Geake's runner who was third in the race last year off a 1lb higher mark. He got outpaced that day before plugging on and he'll be hoping for a more even gallop this afternoon. He ran an excellent third on his next run, albeit it was after a long break in April this year at Kempton when sent off at 50/1 in a 0-65 race so a run like that would see him go very close here. Hasn't quite met that form the last twice but all three runs came within a week so it may have burnt him out by the time he slightly disappointed at Lingfield when last seen. He was, however, posted very wide throughout and did travel with enough purpose to suggest he was still in a bit of form. His run sandwiched between the two mentioned was respectable (just fading late on over 1m6f) and the drop back in trip on that will suit. Has run well here before and has a good jockey on board in Harry Bentley. This is a poor race and I can see him getting involved now given a few weeks to recover from that intense spell of racing.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.20 Southwell - 1pt win Tony Hollis @ 11/1 (Sportingbet) Karen Tutty's runner is an infrequent winner and ran just yesterday but looked ill at ease on the soft ground at Newcastle and should much prefer the return to fibresand where he does at least hold some solid form. 2379 are his form figures here but the 7th came in a substantially better race than this and the 9th came on his reappearance run this season so can also be excused. His only win came off this mark on turf but he seems just as good if not better on the artificial surfaces so he should be able to be competitive off his current rating. Prior to that poor run yesterday he was 2nd at Musselburgh and before that ran as well as could have been expected really off stiff weights in a seller at Beverley. If we take out the run yesterday he'd be a shorter price here and I think he can bounce back. It's obviously a question mark with horses coming back so soon but he's run well both times he's been off the track for less than a week between runs and hopefully he can bounce back in record quick time this afternoon.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Somewhat glad Glens Wobbly was chinned for 2nd as that would have been frustrating. Still another place is just that, but not quite as bad.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 7.30 Kempton - 2pts win Blackstone Vegas @ 8/1 (Boyles) Two mile races are often funny things because a large percentage of runners aren't proven over the distance which can lead to some decent value in those who are. This certainly looks the case for Derek Shaw's runner here who has even been a bigger price than 8/1 in the run up to this contest. He won the race last year off the very same mark of 55 and although he showed little other than on the two starts directly after that, his mark has come back down and there was enough promise in his run last time out to suggest he's running himself back into form. He was entitled to need his first run back in April but was only beaten just over 7 lengths over this c&d in a 0-75 handicap so that was substantially better than the 0-60 he finds himself in now. He should be at peak fitness now and connections opt to pop the visor back on which has helped at times in the past. It's also interesting that Shaw has booked Silvestre De Sousa to take the ride and that suggests he means business this evening and considering two miles on the all-weather is pretty much his optimum, that can't be said about a lot of these and therefore he's well worth an investment at a nice price.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.10 Wetherby - 2pts win Carmela Maria @ 7/1 (BetVictor) Not usually the type of race I love getting involved in, and especially on a mare who without fail loses her place during races before staying on again. Although she saves her best for Catterick, that is somewhat surprising considering her party trick and the more galloping, longer straight here at Wetherby ought to help her chances of getting back into the contest at the business end. She's back down to a winning mark, we know she stays well, and Lucy Alexander is a top jockey booking in this lady riders' contest. That automatically gives us a really good chance and I'm hopeful this mare shouldn't get hopelessly tailed off at this venue with a strong rider on board. This is especially the case as the races she's been running in, losing touch with the leaders and then finishing well again, have been a lot better than this. The last twice she's run okay in 0-110 affairs yet slips into 0-95 company today so she should find this much more within her comfort zone this afternoon. The ground is riding a touch on the slow side of good which suits and for all this might be a bumpy ride watching the race I think she can take the spoils by hook or by crook!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.45 Goodwood - 3pts win Elik @ 7/2 (BetVictor) I am very keen on Sir Michael Stoute's filly this afternoon at the Sussex venue in the listed contest off the back of some good efforts and a promising third in the Cheshire Oaks last time out. She looked that day to me more of a galloper than the speedster required around that extremely tight track and although this venue may not be tailor-made either, she should be much happier at Goodwood. Her form looks rock solid as well as she was staying on at the finish on debut (Stoute's usually need a run) before a respectable third on testing ground behind two nice types over a mile. Her pedigree suggests she'll be best when her stamina is drawn out so was always likely to progress on those two efforts at 2 and was beaten a half length on her reappearance over the extended 1m1f at Wolverhampton. Unfortunately she just met a good one that day in Woodland Aria who ran very well in the Musidora last week. With that under her belt she went to Chester and came from a long way back, staying on nicely into fourth - looking all the time as if she wanted a more galloping track. That was a pleasing effort in a listed event and now gets conditions more on her side. A longer straight will suit without doubt as she was winding up nicely (if not at breakneck speed) at Chester and I think she can take all the beating this afternoon.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.05 Haydock - 2pts win Sam Sharp @ 10/1 (BetVictor) Ian Williams' charge looks way too overpriced to me as conditions are bang on for him and he has a very nice record when fresh. A mile on a galloping track on quick ground is exactly what he wants and is a past c&d winner (comfortable) off 4lbs lower. His win at Leicester in September came off 3lbs lower but he looks more than capable of taking a race off a mark of 86. His record over 1m on good or quicker turf reads 121 and was arguably unlucky when 2nd at Newbury (not clear run, ran on). He did disappoint over 1m1f at Newmarket when last seen but that was a very hot race and the track is perhaps not quite as ideal as Haydock. His record fresh reads 2212 and the most recent seconds came when beaten a nose and narrowly last year on less than ideal heavy ground. When you combine the stats of today's conditions and his record fresh he comes out better than a 10/1 shot in my eyes. Ian Williams has had recent winners and Richard Kingscote who knows the horse well (and has won on him) takes the ride. He should at the very least be competitive off this mark and hopefully he can find that bit extra to land the spoils.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert

4.05 Haydock - 2pts win Sam Sharp @ 10/1 (BetVictor) Ian Williams' charge looks way too overpriced to me as conditions are bang on for him and he has a very nice record when fresh. A mile on a galloping track on quick ground is exactly what he wants and is a past c&d winner (comfortable) off 4lbs lower. His win at Leicester in September came off 3lbs lower but he looks more than capable of taking a race off a mark of 86. His record over 1m on good or quicker turf reads 121 and was arguably unlucky when 2nd at Newbury (not clear run, ran on). He did disappoint over 1m1f at Newmarket when last seen but that was a very hot race and the track is perhaps not quite as ideal as Haydock. His record fresh reads 2212 and the most recent seconds came when beaten a nose and narrowly last year on less than ideal heavy ground. When you combine the stats of today's conditions and his record fresh he comes out better than a 10/1 shot in my eyes. Ian Williams has had recent winners and Richard Kingscote who knows the horse well (and has won on him) takes the ride. He should at the very least be competitive off this mark and hopefully he can find that bit extra to land the spoils.

Very unlucky loser.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert

Very unlucky loser.

Gutted to be fair. Elik won so no loss on the day but Sam Sharp has to go down as a very unfortunate loser. No run whatsoever up the straight but eventually got some room out wide when too late and thundered home. Wins with a clear run. Real pain in the arse as he drifted to 12s as well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.20 Haydock - 2pts win Beat The Tide @ 9/1 (Bet365) I am surprised that this horse is the second biggest price in the field but the fact he's still only 9/1 shows this is an open affair. I'm more than happy to side with him at the price, however, and I can only hope that he's fit enough to do himself justice on his first run of the season. Last year he stepped up on a promising debut at Redcar to win an average maiden at Newcastle - getting on top close home to score by 3/4l. That form has been franked at a modest level - enough to suggest he can win handicaps off 71. He was sent off joint favourite back at the same venue over a mile on his handicap debut but really disappointed when well held. There are a couple of possible excuses for that on testing ground and also the run came at a time when the Michael Dods yard were struggling for form (6% strike rate in August). It's quite the opposite this afternoon as the trainer is operating at a 20% strike rate this month so far (9-45) so he couldn't be reappearing at a better time and it bodes well that he could be ready to go first time out. He steps up to 1m2f today and that should suit him well on pedigree (sire ran in an Ascot Gold Cup, stamina on useful dam's side too). The better ground is a possible help as well as we know he handles it fine and there should be more to come now. Hopefully it'll be today but if not then I'm sure he'll be winning off this mark sooner rather than later.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.35 Goodwood - 1pt win Accession @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes) Clive Cox has his string in good order and although his runner here has been a little bit frustrating, there's a prize in him and I feel it could be today given he's worked himself back down to a decent mark and runs in the the lowest grade of his career since winning a Newbury maiden. This 0-85 contest should make things a bit easier for him and he can be excused for not landing a gamble over this c&d last time out. He was a bit slowly away and had to be rousted up to chase the pace - which was especially hot. Ultimately those who sensibly sat off the gallop swept through inside the final couple of furlongs and this fella could only finish 8th. The effort can be upgraded a little for those reasons as well and you only have to look at his reappearance run in the Newbury Spring Cup to see that he brings good recent form to the table. The bit of rain we had could improve his chances a little as well (good to soft could be ideal) and Adam Kirby takes the ride for the first time in about a year. He was on board for both of his wins and also got a fine tune out of him when he last rode the horse off 95 in a hot handicap won by Mince. The blinkers go on for the second time in his career but it's difficult to gauge how that'll go as it was inconclusive when he wore them in a valuable race on soft ground last July at Newmarket. I doubt they'll do him any harm and now fingers crossed the drop in weights and grade, the return of Adam Kirby, and hopefully learnt lessons from last time out, he can go very well this afternoon.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Hard luck with Beat The Tide today, certainly stayed on well but possibly had too much too much to do. Certainly one to keep on the right side of though. Always enjoy reading your write-ups Rupert. Keep up the good work.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert

Hard luck with Beat The Tide today, certainly stayed on well but possibly had too much too much to do. Certainly one to keep on the right side of though. Always enjoy reading your write-ups Rupert. Keep up the good work.

Looks a bit one-paced (bit surprising considering he won over 7f not long ago) so a stronger gallop/stiffer test should suit. Frustrating to hit the crossbar again but at least I can have no complaints as the winner won readily! We'll never know what might have happened with Accession but I think he wouldn't have been too far away. It happens all too often at Goodwood where your horse is penned in against the rail and Kirby waited and prayed for a split but it was never coming. Stayed on nicely under tender handling when finally in the clear and he would have gone well with a clear passage. Appreciate the comments very much Stu :ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Don't see this price lasting on this one so it's coming up first! 3.40 Chester - 2pts e/w Kuda Huraa @ 7/1 (SJ) A big e/w bet for me on Alan King's runner this afternoon at a price that is far too big and probably won't last. He showed decent form last year and also competed to a decent level (rating of 123) over hurdles and appears as good as ever this year. He ran over the Derby trip at Epsom last month and kept grinding away at the winner and although he was gradually closing he was eventually held off by a head. On that evidence he'd get further and the race has worked out and has a rock solid feel about it. He tried two miles at Ascot last time and although he looked set to play a big part in the finish as they turned for home he faded and he can be excused for that. Drops back to 1m6f today which could prove ideal around a sharp course. The front two in the market both look bigger, galloping types than the niftier selection of mine who should handle the course without too much problem. I don't see him not running a big race so is worth a sizeable each-way bet and hopefully he can get his head in front.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.55 York - 1pt win Bogart @ 20/1 (Bet365) It's extremely tricky to get these big handicap sprints right but Kevin Ryan's runner is certainly overpriced to my eye and we should get a good spin for our money from near the front. It's actually his first handicap run today and should find this easier than the Group contests he's competed the last twice. He's a listed winner but has come up short trying his hand against some of the very best and a mark of 99 reflects his ability in my opinion so can be competitive off such a mark. He enjoys a flat track and is a previous winner here. Although his wins have come at 6f he possesses the speed for 5f without doubt and there's been sufficient promise in three starts this season to make him of interest. He was a sound 3rd behind Spirit Quartz on his seasonal debut at Nottingham (that one rated 115) and although he was well beaten at Newmarket in the Palace House the track and lightning quick ground wouldn't have been ideal for him - especially in such tough company. Shaped much better back here last time out when beaten just over five lengths by Society Rock in a race he had no right to play a part in the finish at the weights. The winner is a genuine Group 1 performer and it was a good run. Drops back to 5f today at a track that suits and the ease in the ground will help as well. I think he'll go well at a tasty price.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.15 Haydock - 2pts win Code of Honor @ 5/1 (Bet365) Henry Candy's colt looked a progressive type in three starts last year and although he disappointed slightly at Kempton on his reappearance at 3, he had excuses and I fancy him to regain the winning thread this afternoon. After a promising debut he won a maiden from a smart type and then rallied nicely to win a 7f York nursery off 85. On that evidence he'd relish the step up to a mile and he certainly will this year. He raced handily on both of those wins but somewhat surprisingly was held up in a small field, muddling race at Kempton last month. It ultimately didn't suit him but he'll come on for that and a stiffer test will suit. It was also a strong race relatively speaking. He's drawn in stall 1 today so I think they may well decide to send him forward again and that should suit (will need good gallop if he doesn't hold a prominent sit). Strips fitter now and Candy has had a recent winner. Quick ground doesn't inconvenience and there's more to come off this mark.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 5.10 York - 2pts win Whispering Warrior @ 9/2 (BetVictor) Posted this before his Newmarket run:

2.05 Newmarket - 2pts win Whispering Warrior @ 7/1 (Sportingbet) This may be a different test to the all-weather races that he's been running over lately but looks generally progressive and has done well since joining his current yard after three maidens. He ran well in a hot maiden when last seen on turf so he can handle the surface and was staying on in a race where it benefited horses to be on the pace. Has been staying on to assert over a mile on the polytrack so the extra furlong is no issue here I don't think and can continue on an upward curve.

Ran pretty well on this occasion despite lacking a clear run and kept on to ultimately finish in the midfield. It was a hot race though with horses in the 80s, 90s and even one rated 100 in the field so it was a step up in class and he ran with credit. Shaped as if an extra furlong today would help (especially at an easier course) and drops into a 0-80 affair this afternoon. Should find this more in his comfort zone and although it's a gentleman amateur riders' race he has a more than capable pilot on board. Anticipating a big run with lots in his favour.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Can anyone tell me why Kuda Huraa drifts from around 5s to 8s before the off and ends up 10 lengths behind everything at the finish? No issues with track, trip or ground? In good form? This game is nonsense sometimes. Code of Honor slowly away before keeping on nicely up the rail but made it 3 in 3 days to be badly hampered and was eased down. Probably wouldn't have won but was closing.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Thankfully Whispering Warrior does the business in the last to save the day. +2pts instead of a disappointing loss. Can more or less forget about today and move onto the next one!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.15 Curragh - 2pts win Show Court @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes) I'm keen on the chances of Dermot Weld's runner here for all this is an open contest. He's shown promise on all starts and chased home the smart Macbeth on his third start last year. Attempted to stay two miles on testing ground next time out and did travel arguably best of all but couldn't quite tag onto the leaders despite making some nice ground up on the turn. Got tired quickly and he was going up in trip by half a mile. Returned to the track over 1m6f last time and again for one reason or another (either fitness or trip) he didn't quite get home. He again travelled well and closed into a competitive fourth up the straight but could find no more. His action and pedigree suggests he could improve for the better ground and because he travels well it should suit. The drop back to 1m4f will enable him to definitely get home which has been an issue recently and has fitness on his side now. Ought to be going well throughout and I'm hopeful he'll be able to finish to greater effect today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.30 Curragh - 1pt win Arbitrageur @ 16/1 (Boyles) Donal Kinsella's runner is a pretty consistent type and ought to give his running here back up to 6f which will suit him better than the minimum trip he ran over last time out. He found things happening just that little bit quickly and could never really get on terms to ultimately finish 2 3/4l behind the winner in 7th. He's won over 7f so it was no great surprise and his effort two starts back over 6f was a good one in a race that has been franked since and as it paid to be on the pace throughout (he wasn't). A good pace over 6f is spot on for him I feel and he's never really got the chance to test himself on a quick turf surface and being by Elusive City there's every chance that he'll enjoy it better than the regular soft ground he encounters. His two wins have come on good to soft ground and polytrack so it bodes fairly well for his first try on turf described as good or quicker. He's still only had 14 starts so there is still possible improvement in him and I get the impression conditions will give him every chance this afternoon.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Another place. God this season could have been so much better.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Arbitrageur..............beaten a half length in second having been backed down to 9s :loon.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Managed to pull things round a little bit of late but had quite a few horses at big priced be placed recently or be unlucky in the run (three in the last few days!). Hopefully it will only get easier as this year's form becomes more and more relevant so not terribly positioned (about 25pts up since the last update). Jumps: Bets: 252 Wins: 32 Placed: 66 Pts Staked: 417pts Pts Returned: 432pts P/L: +15pts Flat: Bets: 92 Wins: 9 Placed: 21 Pts Staked: 144pts Pts Returned: 136pts P/L: -8pts