Racing For Rupert

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.45 Ascot - 2pts win High Jinx @ 12/1 (Bet365) I've always liked James Fanshawe's runner and the Gold Cup is absolutely made for him in my opinion. He has stamina in abundance - by a Derby winner and out of a stamina-influenced dam. He's got form on all ground but I think he's better on a sound surface and if that's true then he has a huge chance upped to 2m4f today. He was a staying on 2nd to the well-handicapped Mount Athos in the Silver Cup at York and has competed over further since. He was twice finishing well in 2nd behind Times Up but he's just a horse who stays on strongly and can find one too quick over 1m6f or 2 miles. Split good horses in Molly Malone over in France prior to a slightly disappointing seasonal return but can strip fitter for that (usually needs first run of season). The testing 2m4f will be ideal for him and I think the better ground can suit too. Should be staying on up the straight and I've been looking forward to this race with him in mind for months. Hoping he can do the business.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.25 Ascot - 1pt win Won Diamond @ 40/1 (Bet365) I know this is fiendishly tough but 40/1 is an insult to this horse in my opinion. May not have the flashiest connections but there's plenty to like on the formbook and I think this will suit. She was a staying on 7l third on debut on ground possibly too soft on pedigree but scraped home at Dundalk next time from a very progressive horse who last time out was 2nd in the UAE Derby. Strictly on that form he looks fairly handicapped off 95 and has run well without winning the last twice. May have needed the run on his first run back this year but suffered from interference before coming home strongly off a mark of 93 - shaping as if a testing mile is right up his street on quick ground. A four-runner race run at a slow time last time wouldn't have suited but was only beaten a neck by a nice, progressive type (now rated 100) and beat a horse who was 2l behind Dawn Approach on debut (and comfortably beat a decent type next time out). This looks ideal for him as he stays a mile well, the ground and a good gallop will suit and if he finds the splits and is on the right part of the track I think he'll outrun his odds.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 5.00 Ascot - 2pts win Chopin @ 13/2 (Bet365) Posted this before the Derby:

4.00 Epsom - 1pt e/w Chopin @ 12/1 (Bet365) It's always difficult to assess foreign raiders but in a Derby which looks weak on the surface I think there's an angle into the contest from overseas and it's hard not to have been impressed with the German challenger when winning the last twice. Dawn Approach might have the speed to burn them off to make the distance irrelevant but I don't see 1m4f being his optimum trip and is at least worth taking on because he's not absolutely guaranteed to stay in my opinion. Prepared to be wrong and I do think he's got a fine chance but whilst there's doubt I can't take a short price on him. Chopin absolutely hacked up on his second start last season and returned with a very impressive victory in a Group 3 last time out. He was 8l clear at the line but appeared to have stacks left in him and will relish the further step up in trip today you'd fancy on that evidence and on pedigree. The runner-up there finished in the same position (albeit much closer) in the German 2000 Guineas so the form has substance to it and although it's not always easy to establish formlines abroad there were some English raiders in that field. The 109 rated Tawhid of Godolphin was 3rd (easy Group 3 winner here last year) and a useful looking 3yo of Marco Botti's was 12l and bits behind the winner (won a Kempton maiden by 6l). Combining that form with Chopin's easy success suggests he's a bit of a tool if you read the form literally and he looks a proper contender. Is third highest in on official ratings (and I think 115 underestimates him) so if he handles the track I think he'll run a very good race and will take him each-way to make the frame should Dawn Approach prove himself.

I thought he was going to play a big part in the finish having travelled sweetly for Spencer. He didn't however find all that much down the straight but probably just didn't stay and the step back to 1m2f looks perfect for him. He was far from disgraced in better company there and this grade even under a penalty looks within his grasp. Remote is too short and Shikarpour may want further so I think he'll go very close indeed and is the most likely winner in my eyes. Epsom would have been completely different to anything he's encountered before so the more conventional track today will be in his favour and it's hard to forget his impressive win in Germany prior to the Epsom classic.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 5.35 Ascot - 1pt win Another Cocktail @ 25/1 (Bet365) If you can forgive Hughie Morrison's runner's effort in the Lingfield Derby trial on very soft ground he's no 25/1 shot for this. His two worst efforts have come on testing ground so it's plausible he just doesn't enjoy it at all (pedigree also backs up the claim) and his good ground form gives him a big chance here. He's a big, galloping type who will love a flat, testing track and 1m4f. He ran close to some smart types over a mile at 2 (Wentworth and Romantic Settings) but was always going to improve with time and for extra distance being by Dalakhani and out of a Montjeu mare. Was a comfortable winner at Lingfield on his return. That wouldn't have suited him tremendously (no great pace, sharp track, first run of season) but he looked better the further he went and ran out a 3 1/2l winner from a now 78-rated rival. Comfortably beat that one giving 5lbs away and he runs off 93 today with plenty more to come from that day. 1m2f at Epsom wouldn't have been brilliant for him next time but stayed on nicely behind a horse who wasn't disgraced in the Derby and my selection will have been crying out for another two furlongs and a galloping track. Gets that today off a fair mark if he's none the worse for the Lingfield run. Has been freshened up since then and has a good draw to add to his ideal conditions this afternoon. Should outrun his odds unless he's completely lost the plot since Epsom.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Alive Alive Oh a NR. Replacement: 3.05 Ascot - 3pts win Elik @ 6/1 (Bet365) Posted this before her Goodwood run:

3.45 Goodwood - 3pts win Elik @ 7/2 (BetVictor) I am very keen on Sir Michael Stoute's filly this afternoon at the Sussex venue in the listed contest off the back of some good efforts and a promising third in the Cheshire Oaks last time out. She looked that day to me more of a galloper than the speedster required around that extremely tight track and although this venue may not be tailor-made either, she should be much happier at Goodwood. Her form looks rock solid as well as she was staying on at the finish on debut (Stoute's usually need a run) before a respectable third on testing ground behind two nice types over a mile. Her pedigree suggests she'll be best when her stamina is drawn out so was always likely to progress on those two efforts at 2 and was beaten a half length on her reappearance over the extended 1m1f at Wolverhampton. Unfortunately she just met a good one that day in Woodland Aria who ran very well in the Musidora last week. With that under her belt she went to Chester and came from a long way back, staying on nicely into fourth - looking all the time as if she wanted a more galloping track. That was a pleasing effort in a listed event and now gets conditions more on her side. A longer straight will suit without doubt as she was winding up nicely (if not at breakneck speed) at Chester and I think she can take all the beating this afternoon.

Stayed on strongly to get up late on here but again looked like she wants further and this track and trip should suit her even better. Pedigree is all about 1m4f on a sound surface so I think the door's been left open for her now with the hot favourite taken out. Winsili had the run of the race last time (quickening off slow pace) so is a bit flattered by that in my eyes, Just Pretending doesn't look a stayer to me and Riposte looks promising but so far the form of her runs have not worked out. For that reason I think Sir Michael Stoute's runner has a rock solid chance. Has a listed race under her belt already and although it wasn't the strongest of listed events, the extra 2f and more galloping track should let out some more improvement.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert High Jinx out. Yuk.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.45 Ascot - 2pts win Saddlers Rock @ 8/1 (Bet365) John Oxx's impressive Doncaster Cup winner from 2011 has had many excuses in big races since but today's conditions look spot on having run a cracker when things went a bit against him in this last year. He has a tendency to pull his chance away but the unusually large field for the Gold Cup today should help him in that regard. Factor in that he wants quicker ground than he got that day and if he's in the same form this year he can take a lot of beating. The ground was too soft when running adequately at the end of 2012 and has warmed up for this in Dubai. Stayed on over too short a trip on his first run back and then his saddle slipped when last seen. Will have been prepped for this and I think he'll go very well now High Jinx is out.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Fuark.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.30 Ascot - 4pts win Sandiva @ 11/4 (Boyles) I don't usually like making this type of bet but I honestly think Richard Fahey's filly is a class above the rest in this Albany field. She was green over 5f on debut but finished her race off like a dream to draw impressively 6l clear of the runner-up (that horse subsequently readily won a maiden) and looked like she'd come on plenty for the experience. Went over to Ireland for her second start and upped to 6f and listed class she disposed of a smart horse in Heart Focus and readily beat Fig Roll who was beaten 3 1/2l in the Queen Mary. That makes the form look full of substance and my selection beat that one by over six lengths. Looks likely to improve again, conditions are fine and I don't see what beats her.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.05 Ascot - 1pt e/w Greatwood @ 10/1 (Bet365) I was really disappointed with Highclere's runner in this year's Dante but if we can forgive him that run, his previous form would give him an excellent frame chance in this. The ground was plausibly a bit on the slower side for him there without being soft and he looks like he really wants a rattling quick surface to be seen at his best. Because he gets that day he's worth another go on the strength of his other form. Prior to his run on the Knavesmire he was a flying 2nd in a valuable race won by Windhoek on his seasonal reappearance - only just failing to get there after a strong late burst and he's very much bred to be a 1m4f performer on quick ground. This is a weak Group 2 and if Battle of Marengo slips up then I think my selection has a fine chance as the rest are far from world beaters. Has a good chance of making the frame and will be hoping the favourite can't justify his market position.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.45 Ascot - 2pts win Siyenica @ 10/1 (Bet365) The Aga Khan's French raider looks a very interesting runner in this where the two favourites are drawn in the car park. She's only had two runs so far in her career. She won nicely on debut before finishing 7th of 8 in a Group 1 last time but did have excuses. Firstly that was over 1m2f and for the time being I think a mile would be ideal. She made most there (keen) but was vulnerable late on and faded close home. The ground was also soft and the race was understandably hot. Her pedigree actually suggests she'll enjoy the quicker ground on offer today on these shores. She's got a good draw in stall 4 today and she's very unexposed. I think a mile on quick ground will prove spot on for her and if she can settle better today I really think she'll go close.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.25 Ascot - 1pt win Labarinto @ 12/1 (Bet365) I think the favourite's short here with a huge hike in the weights for winning a relatively modest race last time out (albeit very well). Sir Michael Stoute's horse has always needed very fast ground so it's been no huge surprise that he hasn't been seen for quite a while but conditions are absolutely spot on for him today and his last win came after a bit of a break from the track. There's reason to believe that his mark isn't beyond him either. When he won at Sandown last September off 95, the front two were nearly 4l clear of the remainder in a good race. The 2nd is now rated 17lbs higher so my selection running off 7lbs higher today probably isn't too restrictive. Was a respectable 7th in a Group 3 at Newmarket next time but had excuses - tried to lie up with the smart winner and ground wasn't quick enough. Has been off since but returns with ideal conditions and if fit should go close.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 5.00 Ascot - 1pt win Nichols Canyon @ 10/1 (Bet365) The favourite might be a good thing but I simply cannot entertain the price going so far up in trip without extremely thorough stamina in his pedigree. I'd rather side with one at a decent price who has fine chances of getting home and solid form in the book. John Gosden's runner should get a decent sit from stall 3 and has shaped like he needs further on his recent runs. His pedigree has stamina running through it and was a fast-finishing 2nd at Newbury last time to go down by a nose over 1m3f. He made up nearly 3 lengths inside the final furlong and his form before that is linked in with some smart types. He beat yesterday's King George V winner by 2 lengths in a maiden last season (also Another Cocktail). He's by Derby winner Authorized and out of a Dalakhani mare so should hold a good chance of getting home and even if he has a bit to find officially on the figures, should improve for the stamina test and go well.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 5.35 Ascot - 2pts win Dream Tune @ 12/1 (Bet365) Clive Cox's runner ran an absolutely stonking race in the Victoria Cup over c&d last time out off this mark. He raced on his own for more than half the contest in the 26-strong field, making his own pace, then came across to join the main group with 2 or 3 furlongs to race and still stayed on well to be first home on his part of the track (middle). Was only beaten 2 3/4l despite all of that and with a more direct run today he must go well. Prior to that he shaped really well until fading late on over a mile on his seasonal return and his two runs prior to last time came on ground possibly too soft on pedigree. He was beaten a head off 87 at Chester last September but that looks strong form (winner rated 13lbs higher) and on that, my selections mark which is 4lbs higher than that today is fair and conditions looks spot on. Should run a cracker.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Argh argh argh. 2nd Rubbish Rubbish Rubbish Unlucky 2nd Painful. Nothing much worse than having a win bet on a runner-up in a 27 runner race!

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.30 Ascot - 2pts win Master Carpenter @ 10/1 (Bet365) If this horse was trained by someone more fashionable than Rod Millman he'd be shorter than 10/1 as the form he has in the book gives him a big chance today - especially going up to a more suitable trip of 7f. He ran out a comfortable winner on debut from a horse who ran in midfield in the Windsor Castle earlier this week and the run of the race here over 5f in a small field conditions race next time out caught him out. Shaped like he didn't have the pace for 5f at the top level and was 3rd to the Windsor Castle 3rd (beaten a neck) and another in the Windsor Castle who was beaten 3l. On that evidence he was ready for a step up in trip and was doing his best work at the finish when winning over the stiff 6f at Pontefract last time. The 7f will suit even better on track evidence and his pedigree - he's by Mastercraftsman and out of a middle-distance dam. Should go close.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.05 Ascot - 3pts win Mount Athos @ 11/4 (Bet365) I'm not overly concerned by the trip for Luca Cumani's charge as I don't think he's slow for all he has stamina and the likely good gallop on offer here will play to his strengths. Universal and Ektihaam are a couple who like to make the running so as long as this isn't run at a farcical pace I think Mount Athos can stay on up the straight to score. He doesn't have to be held up too far back (made all at Chester last time out) and will relish the quick ground. Although it looks like that Chester win fell apart, Mad Moose's form has been franked and although you'd obviously expect my selection to beat that rival, he was very impressive in doing so. He's top rated on form and Varian's runner may have had the run of the race last time out.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.45 Ascot - 2pts win Gordon Lord Byron @ 8/1 (Bet365) Posted this before his run at York:

3.15 York - 1pt win Gordon Lord Byron @ 12/1 (Bet365) This horse progressed hugely up the sprinting ranks last season and is now a fully-fledged group performer. He was 2nd in the Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock in September before winning a Longchamp Group 1 over 7f from Penitent (that one being a 115-rated animal). Those runs make his rating of 118 look extremely justified and not a fluke and he ran a cracker when just not getting home in 4th in the Hong Kong Mile. Made mincemeat of the opposition on his return at Dundalk in 2013 (runner up has franked the form nicely) before a respectable effort in the Golden Shaheen over at Meydan. Handles all sorts of ground and although he saddles a penalty for his Group 1 success he's still not badly off at the weights and has the benefit of a more recent run than Mince. Price looks too big for a proven performer at this level and has a top jockey on board in Ryan Moore.

Ran an absolute stormer on this occasion and probably would have won with a better draw in my opinion. Was isolated on the far side of the field but stayed on strongly into a close 3rd and it showed he truly is up to this level. This doesn't look an absolutely vintage renewal and although I love Society Rock, at the prices I'm siding with the Irish raider. Form is closely tied in with that one and my selection still looks progressive. Stays a bit further which can help here and I'm confident he'll go very close indeed if he can get a good position (a lot of fancied runners drawn low so not a disaster).

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.25 Ascot - 1pt win Louis The Pious @ 20/1 (Bet365) Posted this before his York run:

2.15 York - 2pts win Louis The Pious @ 5/1 (Bet365) A bit boring going for the favourite in a big field sprint but this well-supported horse from the David O'Meara yard looks to have a big chance on last year's form and towards the end of 2012 moved to his current yard who know how to improve one. He was running in the big handicap sprints last season and was placed three times in 6f races at Goodwood, Ripon and York. He also handles any ground although he probably wouldn't want it completely bottomless. His two runs for O'Meara have been good - he was beaten a short-head at York when splitting good horses in Regal Parade and Sirius Prospect, and then ran better than the bare result over 7f at Doncaster. He wasn't beaten far at all on his side of the course over a trip he just seems to not get home as well over and the return to 6f will suit. He won his maiden after a winter off the track and found a mile on soft ground too demanding on his return last season rather than needing the run so there's every chance he'll be ready to fly and I'm optimistic for a big run.

Ran adequately here for a first run of the season and shaped as if he'd come on for it. Travelled pretty well and had to be switched a few times so never really had a momentum-fuelled run. Wasn't beaten all that far in the end and I'm hopeful he can build on that. Cheekpieces return today, the ground should suit and he looks drawn well (no pace in low draws) so I'm optimistic of a big run.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 5.00 Ascot - 2pts win Caravan Rolls On @ 7/1 (Bet365) Posted this before his Newmarket run:

2.20 Newmarket - 3pts win Caravan Rolls On @ 9/2 (VC) I respect Biographer but Peter Chapple-Hyam's runner is undoubtedly well handicapped considering he runs off the same mark as when a desperately unlucky loser at Doncaster when last seen for all that was a blanket finish. He was really nice and progressive when seen in 2011 and 2012, racking up 5 wins, and the improvement didn't seem top be stopping at the Yorkshire venue in September. He travelled much the best in the race but had nowhere to go up the rail and was twice hampered in the closing stages. He did well to storm home to be beaten half a length in fifth but would have won cosily with no interference and returns off the same mark today. It was a solid race won by Sir Graham Wade and returns after a break today which is no concern. He's won both starts after an absence, including a good handicap here last year and I think he'll take a lot of beating this afternoon and can continue on an upward curve.

He kept on rolling from a long way back here and although some questioned Spencer's ride (probably wasn't vintage) I thought he made up ground quite quickly and then wasn't closing at the line. Should come on for that effort despite having a good record fresh and the step back in trip can actually suit I think. A strongly-run 1m4f (has won here too) looks right up his street and he still looks progressive. Has a wide draw to contend with but won't be rushing up to the leaders and if Spencer can time it right (and they go quick enough up front) he should be coming home strongly and hopefully can get on top with conditions to suit.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.05 Newmarket - 2pts win Top Boy @ 10/1 (Boyles) Posted this before his York run:

3.50 York - 1pt win Top Boy @ 20/1 (Bet365) This is potentially a bet to make me look stupid but Derek Shaw's runner has shown signs of being able to run a cracker when everything drops right in a big race and I think conditions are set for him to hopefully make today the day. He was useful at 2 to briefly hold a three-figure rating after a good 4th in the super sprint at Newbury and although that flattered him it is interesting that his best run came over 5f on soft ground which he gets today. He was set some stiff tasks afterwards and it took him until his reappearance run at Wolverhampton this season to get off the mark by winning a modest maiden by four lengths. Probably wasn't fully tuned up for that and ran a better race than the form suggests at Sandown next time out. He didn't get a clear run through from the rear which cost him momentum at a crucial time but stayed on into midfield to be beaten 4l off a mark of 93. Normal Equilibrium and Smoothtalkinrascal have franked that form since and he had a stiff task at the weights in the Hamilton race that consisted of the main protagonists in yesterday's race won by the aforementioned David O'Meara runner (had about 10lbs to find on the first three; beaten five lengths). The issue with this horse is he can take a keen hold and also needs daylight to find his stride because he's a big horse who isn't going to produce a lightning turn of pace which means him being stopped in his run at Sandown would have cost him more than some other horses. He should get some cover today in a big field which will help him and they should go plenty quick enough in front which is another advantage. The flat track will really suit him (no surprise that many of his best efforts have come on similar surfaces) and he's eased down to a mark of 90. That may still be a little high but this is a drop in grade and if he gets luck in running then I can see him motoring home and fingers crossed can time it right.

I felt he was one that got away on this occasion as he ran a stormer but was simply on the wrong part of the track on the far rail but wasn't beaten far in 5th at all. Was first home on his side and that was a hot race. Has been dropped a couple of pounds now and ran a decent race at Chester last time out. That track wouldn't be his track so the fact he stayed on into 5th from the rear having been drawn out in the carpark there so that was again encouraging and today's track should suit more. Deserves a change of luck and the yard are in form.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.30 Beverley - 2pts win Chamberlain @ 12/1 (Bet365) This looks a weak maiden to me and although Alan McCabe's runner is one of those who has to prove he stays 7f, he ran really well on debut over 5f and although beaten 10l last time out at Pontefract he had excuses. It was a good race for starters which has worked out really well and he was posted wide. He also drifted in the betting and all in all can probably be allowed that defeat. This looks substantially weaker and there should be a fair chance of him getting home. Relative to those in his company a furlong and a half out, he drew on for them so the step up in trip can suit and he never really travelled on this occasion. Should move more comfortably at this speed and the right-handed track could also suit on that evidence. Think he'll outrun his odds.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.00 Carlisle - 2pts win Ashpan Sam @ 8/1 (VC) John Spearing's runner is typically very consistent. He struggles to get his head in front a lot of the time but has been in the first three on 15 of his 24 career starts and looks to have conditions ideal here. Both of his wins have been comfortable so I don't think he's a bottler but often finds something a bit quick for him. They ought to go a good gallop here and the stiff finish and testing 5f should be right up his street this afternoon. He usually finishes well and I hope they fall back into his lap late on. This season he ran well when holding excuses on his seasonal debut and bumped into a couple of well-handicapped horses when 3rd at Windsor next time. Kept on for 3rd at Thirsk next time (easy track not ideal) and a 4 runner race where the winner made all at Leicester last time was again not ideal. Finished 2nd and the return to a bigger field and stiffer test will help with a number of pace horses in the field. Robert Winston takes the ride for the 2nd time and was a runner-up on that occasion and I feel he'll go close today.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.05 Carlisle - 2pts win Ingleby Angel @ 10/1 (Hills) David O'Meara's charge suffered last week from the way the Redcar race was run when trying to rack up a hattrick. They went a very steady pace (winner made all) and my selection took a keen hold through the contest. Did manage to keep on for 3rd ultimately but that was far from an ideal showing as he'll be much better when getting a stronger gallop to run off as he can settle and finish strongly relative to his rivals. Today's bigger field, competitors and track can help in that regard and although 9lbs higher than his win two starts back he shaped as if still capable last time despite things going against him and that win came with the front two 5l clear of the remainder (3rd run well since). This will suit and I think he can get back on the winning trail today.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.35 Carlisle - 2pts win Ethics Girl @ 16/1 (VC) John Berry's runner isn't chucked in or anything but there doesn't look too many well-handicapped horses or progressive types in this field and at 16/1 I think this in-form mare who has conditions to suit is overpriced. She's won off a mark of 75 in the past so the 7lbs taken off today (mark is 81) would give her a hope and she went close on her only previous start at Carlisle. She relishes a stiff finish (stays a bit further) and has been in form the last three tries. Stayed on over a too sharp 1m2f three starts back at Newbury for 3rd on her seasonal reappearance and stayed on for 2nd back up to 1m4f next time off this mark at Newmarket. Was 5l behind the winner but bumped into a well-treated type on that occasion (won off 8lbs higher next time out) so can be excused and my selection ran a sound 2nd over hurdles last time out. Returns to the level with conditions to suit (decent ground, track and trip) and they should go a decent gallop here in this 17-strong field. Ought to be staying on at the finish and in an open race I'm confident she'll go close.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.50 Yarmouth - 2pts win Jack Barker @ 10/1 (PP) Robin Bastiman's runner's best two efforts have come on a sound surface over seven furlongs but on both occasions has shaped as if the step back to 6f would suit. The only times he's tried this distance was on soft ground on his handicap debut (dam's sire 0-65 with his progeny on soft or heavy) and last time out. Shaped well on his final maiden start when only just fading late on to be 3rd at Redcar and his reappearance this year at Chepstow was also highly encouraging when beaten 3l and only tiring late on. Shaped as if the drop back to 6f and got that here last time but it came just 5 days after his seasonal reappearance so there's every chance that just came too soon and now freshened up he appears to have his conditions and Freddie Tylicki takes the ride (2-7 for yard) for the first time. Expecting better.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.30 Newcastle - 2pts win Come Here Yew @ 8/1 (Bet365) There's no doubt the favourite deserves to be at the head of the market but 11/10 looks extremely short to me for all this should suit. Was a narrow winner at Ripon when last seen on the flat but that was in a considerably worse race than this. As that one takes a hike in class, my selection drops down from competing in some better races. He's only won once in his career but that came over c&d and on this ground so we know he can go well under these conditions and has run well on all starts in 2013. Was staying on here over an insufficient 1m4f on return and then competed in a hot York race won by Ascot winner Well Sharp (clearly well-handicapped on the Knavesmire). Come Here Yew stayed on into 3rd in the 0-90 affair (this is a 0-80) and was not disgraced at Pontefract last time out when that wouldn't have suited him so much. The way the races are run there and the shortish straight wouldn't be ideal for him and the return to a more galloping track with a longer straight will suit very much. Ought to run his race and should be unwinding nicely down the straight.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Heading off to work so quick posts... 3.15 Newcastle - 2pts win Ile De Re @ 11/1 (Bet365) Donald McCain's runner did the Chester Cup and Northumberland Plate double last year and the latter victory in this race came off the mark he runs off today. Both of those came on testing ground so although this isn't bottomless, many in here would like it quicker and the rain that's come will really suit. Has taken a bit of time to come good in the past after a break so his two average runs so far this season should have brought him on and he can be excused last time on quick ground in a good race that wouldn't have really suited. Returns to a stiffer test today on more suitable ground and is off clearly a workable mark. Jim Crowley takes the ride again this year and should be spot on for a good crack at retaining his title. 3.50 Newcastle - 1pt win Mehdi @ 25/1 (Bet365) This tricky type has joined David Nicholls and I didn't think his reappearance run at Thirsk was too bad when he finished in midfield. Should have come on for that and his final start with Brian Meehan last season was an encouraging one I thought. He'd been out of form for a little while (albeit with excuses on occasions) but had to make his own running pretty much over the straight 6f there on the wrong part of the track but still stayed on nicely under a tender ride to finish 7th of 14 and looked as if the return to 7f would help. Gets that today with fitness now on his side and he does enjoy a bit of give in the ground. Obviously market signs aren't brilliant but still looks worth a nibble at an attractive price. 4.40 Windsor - 1pt win Monsieur Chevalier @ 20/1 (Bet365) PJ O'Gorman's runner was a very classy sort for Richard Hannon and although not back to those heights he's been running respectively and did win his last start in a handicap - over 7f on the Lingfield polytrack. Since then he's been running in listed and group races over further which I just don't think he had much of a chance in. I personally still see him as a sprinter (can get away with 7f on a sharp Lingfield track - holding on at finish) so it's no surprise to me that he didn't cut much ice against better horses than himself on figures and over trips that stretch his stamina. Ran in the Queen Anne last time and obviously that proved too much being a Group 1 over a mile but did stay up there for a fair way and finally gets to return to 6f and a handicap. Conditions look prime and he could still be on a good mark. The blinkers from last time are kept on interestingly and I'm hopeful of a better run than his price suggests.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.15 Wolverhampton - 2pts win Gallena @ 11/2 (Bet365) Frankie Dettori has a couple of rides at Wolverhampton today and he has a 20% strike rate when teaming up with William Haggas. The yard are in form and although this filly disappointed at Ripon last time out she was weak in the market and the drift told the story as she faded out of matters. However, she showed plenty of promise prior to that and has been supported in the betting so far today. Was progressive in three maidens last term, culminating in an easy win at Bath on her third start before failing to land a blow behind a nice type in a novice race just eight days later. Was short of room and hampered out of it on her seasonal return when sent off favourite so that was much better than the bare result and she should make a big impression on her all-weather debut.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.45 Market Rasen - 2pts win Paddy The Hare @ 13/2 (BetVictor) Dr Richard Newland's horse is an admirably consistent type and should run another good race this afternoon having won on his handicap chase debut last time out under similar conditions. He carried top weight to victory there with the front two a long way clear and the 7lb rise may not be sufficient to stop him. He's a summer horse who likes top of the ground and it's no surprise he's proving better over fences than he was over hurdles (still, not by that much on ratings as of yet). Yard are amongst the winners and this one had comfortable excuses when finding one too strong in several novice chases. Was ultimately just up against horses rated superior to him (regularly in the mid-130s) so it was no disgrace to not quite match them without receiving the weight he would in handicaps. Conditions are ideal and although this is tougher I still think he could be on a fair mark as he jumped right-handed at Uttoxeter last time so this venue could see a more efficient round from him, for all his wins have all come at that track.