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Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13

BKI Punter

By BKI Punter
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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cpo

cpo

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Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 RSA Chase - Dynaste 5pts (max bet) win @ 5/1 PaddyPower Dynaste has looked an absolute machine since turning his attention to fences. The form of both of his starts over fences have been franked this weekend with both Unioniste and Court in Motion winning. It's hard to not get carried away with his performances so far as he has looked imperious both times. He put Fingal Bay in his place with ease and looking through the current RSA betting, I don't see anything in the field that could pose a threat. Boston Bob at the moment is the current 2nd favourite but I am happy to take him on. Come race day I feel Dynaste will be much shorter than his current 5/1 so fingers crossed he gets there in 1 piece. To me opposition is thin on the ground so I am happy to get on at this early stage. It's a race that Martin Pipe won twice in the 90's and David looks to have a major contender to notch his first RSA.

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bowles10

bowles10

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Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13

just read on the racing post that big bucks and al ferof may notrun again thisseason
that is a gutter if its true I would have loved to see BB winning another world hurdle (jump racings Frankel) AF also a top class sort :( gutted
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beaker1

beaker1

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Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 taken from elsewhere Paul Nicholls found a problem with his stable stars at evening stables tonight. Here he issues a statement... I have some bad news to report. At evening stables tonight, we discovered a problem with both Big Buck's and Al Ferof. I am not in a position to go into great detail at this point, but I can confirm that Big Buck's will not be taking up his engagement at Ascot on Saturday and Al Ferof will not be running in the King George. And both are unlikely to run again this season. I would appreciate it if the media and press did not contact me at this point. When I do have more to report, I will be doing it here. Tony Calvin will be immediately informing the press, and the relevant parties, of this statement tonight.

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fintron

fintron

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Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 With doubts over Al Ferof's participation in the King George Ive just had a look at the rest of the race to see if anything was overpriced....... How can Kauto Stone be 12/1 when he's a Grade 1 winner over the trip. You'd have to say Long Run is a worthy fav, he has top class form in the book around the trip but then you look at the horses prominent in the betting next....Cue Card (9/2), Riverside Theatre (11/2) and Captain Chris (8/1). Cue Card was impressed at Exeter but the Haldon Gold Cup is only a Grade 2 handicap...he needs to prove himself over the trip over fences at the top level. Riverside Theatre has run all of his best races over shorter and was well held by Long Run in last years renewal. Its had to see him reversing the placings, with Long Run better suited to the trip it seems. Captain Chris is another whose best form has come up to 2m5f. He needs to prove himself over 3m at the top table IMO. Then you're getting onto the likes of Grands Crus (questions over whether he's the force of old), Sizing Europe (best over 2m, might stay the trip at a stretch but perhaps not in Grade 1 company) and Sir Des Champs, who looks a tool but does need to better his reappearance effort to figure. I think Kauto Stone has a better chance than all of them and should be second favourite behind Long Run. Its been done to death his breeding, but his famous half-brother wasn't too shabby in this race.....won it for a record five times!!! Nicholls obviously knows how to target the right horses for the race and with Cristal Bonus also scratched recently, he could be the sole representative from Ditcheat. With Gigginstown owning Sir Des Champs I reckon Davy Russell will probably be on that and Ruby will be on Kauto Stone for Nicholls rather than riding for Mullins. All things considered, even 6/1 would seem a fair price really if he's definately going for the race.

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cpo

cpo

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Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 I am tempted to back Tidal Bay for the World Hurdle at 16's. I get the feeling Nicholls will want to win this again and this is his best chance IMO. Much will depends on his next run but I fancy he will go for this. Quevega is the favourite now but I think Mullins has said he wants to go for a 5th David Nicholson with her. With Quevega out the race is wide open. Voler La Vedette and Tidal Bay are the 2 that interest me most but I just prefer Tidal Bay given his good record at the track.

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cpo

cpo

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Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 World Hurdle - Tidal Bay 1pt EW 14/1 Bet365 - 3 places 1/4 odds Risky as he may not even go for this but if he does then he will be much shorter come race day. Big Bucks and Quevega not running leaves the door wide open and Tidal Bay looks a pretty good option to me.

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Bathtime For Rupert

Bathtime For Rupert

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Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 I really, really like Arvika Ligeonniere as a horse. But don't know if I can back him to beat Simonsig in the Arkle. Think he'd gallop them into submission in the Jewson so it's a bit frustrating really from a punting point of view. 7/1 is possibly on the short side but at the same time if Simonsig doesn't jump on his chasing debut (okay, fairly unlikely) then it could be big because he has a very good cruising speed and is one of the best novices at his fences I've seen in recent years.

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Bathtime For Rupert

Bathtime For Rupert

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Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Aah screw it. A few noises from the Henderson camp over the last few months haven't been totally conclusive with regards to Simonsig chasing (some murmurs of him going for the Champion Hurdle) suggest that perhaps he's not the tailor-made chaser that they thought. It's speculation but he didn't jump great in points and I'm pretty happy that Arvika Ligeonniere is a solid e/w bet even at a not particularly fancy price of 7/1. This race is the plan and all going well in his upcoming race he can head there with or without another run as he's got a perfectly good record fresh. Although I think he'd win the Jewson, they obviously think with his speed that the drop to 2 miles will suit better. He definitely stays 2m4f but perhaps on soft ground at Cheltenham it would turn into a slog which isn't ideal. If Simonsig jumps well then he'll be very tough to beat barring a fall but I don't see three better two-mile novice chasers than Arvika Ligeonniere personally. He has the style that suggests to me he'll enjoy racing round Cheltenham (did run very well for a long way in the Albert Bartlett) and goes on any ground. His jumping has been hugely impressive to me as he's very efficient and quick. It doesn't put him off his stride and obviously jumping is crucial in a race such as the Arkle. Combining that with his ability to find under pressure, he looks an ideal Cheltenham horse and it's hard not to be impressed by his two runs over fences so far - showing a huge amount of speed and jumping ability to win easily both times (the latter coming against decent company and the former after a lengthy lay-off). So long as he doesn't flop at Leopardstown on Boxing Day it's hard to see him ever trading at bigger than 7s unless Simonsig absolutely destroys his field (and even then, he's hardly going to drift markedly). With the potential for an unimpressive chase debut from that one and a subsequent run for Mullins' horse, he could well be shorter this time next week and he's a horse I think lots of. Not many chinks in his armour for me so even if he proves not quite good enough in March, I'm fairly confident I'll be picking up place money barring disaster prior to our during the race. Arkle Chase - 1.5pts e/w Arvika Ligeonniere @ 7/1 (VC and across the board)

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benreado

benreado

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Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Have to agree with BKI. I cannot believe the horse is as short as 9/4 after 1 victory where it beat nothing. Everyone seems to be putting it on a pedestal with SS saying it won't get beaten. I can't be having that at all. The horse put in a good round of jumping but nothing spectacular and the horse was never under pressure. I've been just as impressed with Oscars Well's and Overturn's jumping so far. The aeroplane beat Peddlers Cross by 15 lengths jumping impeccably on it's jumping debut and there was still a bigger price available after than you can get about Simonsig now. Simonsig was a better hurdler, but this is a different sport altogether and how the price is justified I do not know. It's not like there's no competition either. Overturn, Oscar's Well, Arvika Ligeonniere and stablemate Captain Conan have all been very impressive, and we're yet to see Montbazon and Colour Squadron - the latter I've heard very good things about and is massively overpriced at 50/1. If you can forgive Colour Squadron one bad run at Cheltenham it's form is very strong (including still being on the bridle against Simonsig when it fell at Aintee). And the way that horse jumps a hurdle makes you think it will really take to chasing.

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Bathtime For Rupert

Bathtime For Rupert

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Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 It beat nothing but I personally don't think that's the point. On his hurdles form, he should be the favourite imo (possibly too short now) and he proved he can jump very capably which was surely the main issue going into his chasing career? I hope not seen as I'm in the Arvika Ligeonniere camp but I don't see many chinks in Simonsig's armour to be honest.

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benreado

benreado

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Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 There's also a horse the market seems to have missed out completely. People seem to be presuming Hinterland is an Arkle horse, but Paul Nicholls arkle horse isn't even in the betting yet! Just last month Highclere bought a really nice horse called Bury Parade for £100k in the sales at Cheltenham. That horse beat a decent one of Donald McCain's Super Duty by 2 lengths on its first chase start and now it's with a trainer who can get a horse fit I expect a lot more improvement. I expect that one will be less than 10/1 on the day with the connections.

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benreado

benreado

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Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13

There's also a horse the market seems to have missed out completely. People seem to be presuming Hinterland is an Arkle horse, but Paul Nicholls arkle horse isn't even in the betting yet! Just last month Highclere bought a really nice horse called Bury Parade for £100k in the sales at Cheltenham. That horse beat a decent one of Donald McCain's Super Duty by 2 lengths on its first chase start and now it's with a trainer who can get a horse fit I expect a lot more improvement. I expect that one will be less than 10/1 on the day with the connections.
Bet365 have quoted me 66/1! Madness - they must be feeling festive. Either that or they don't know the horse is now with Nicholls. Had a very big bet on at the price and can lay off nearer the time at a shorter if I decide to.
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