cpo Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Darlan at 16s for the Champion! Wasn't even given a backhander by McCoy today' date=' he jumped brilliantly and looks a monster.[/quote'] Unbelievable price... Imagine how good he will be on better ground :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 He's hardly backable now at 9/2, but with the improvement you'd expect, he's got to have a huge chance. Soft ground and Henderson could have the 1-2-3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Also, what about Dynaste? I wouldn't back him at 5/2 for the RSA, but he's not come off the bridle yet in three good races. He finishes his races more strongly than Grand Crus so I wouldn't at all be worried about the trip. What would get him off the bit? The RSA bunch look extremely slow this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Also' date=' what about Dynaste? I wouldn't back him at 5/2 for the RSA, but he's not come off the bridle yet in three good races. He finishes his races more strongly than Grand Crus so I wouldn't at all be worried about the trip. What would get him off the bit? The RSA bunch look extremely slow this year.[/quote'] I backed him at 5's and I think I have a decent bet there. Like you said there doesn't seem to be anything in the betting to be too worried about. If he goes there 100% then he will be very hard to beat IMO. I'm sure Channel 4 mentioned a pretty worrying stat about Feltham winners running in the RSA. I think 0 from 19 or something like that? That wouldn't worry me though as Dynaste looks very good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Well Arvika Ligeonniere did nothing to really concern me with regards to my e/w bet for the Arkle (unless Mullins has a change of heart). A slight worry that he jumped right at times but still appeared to have a little bit in hand (looked a touch vulnerable at the last but was in control all the way up the run-in) despite going off at a good pace again in tacky ground. Wouldn't say I was confident about him beating Simonsig but he's definitely the main challenger in my opinion. Think he's been trimmed a point for Cheltenham now. And what a cracking pic this is: Lovely horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeilM Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Did anyone see Arvika Ligeonniere cross his legs Arkle style? I've just heard a guy in a pub tell his mate (who works in the local betting office) that he saw it today and last time out. I don't recall it and I'm fairly sure someone would have commented on such a specific quirk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Not that I can remember. The camera angles have been pretty rubbish though with lots of shots from behind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeilM Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I watched a One Foot In The Grave last night (possibly the jealous boyfriend/deadly spider/farmer's wedding ring one or the one with Brian Murphy and the false teeth) and Victor commented about racing camera angles coming out of Willie Carson's backside in the future. How prescient. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRowebot Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Well well well...very impressive from Dynaste and Simonsig. Anybody knee jerked for any ante post bets involving these two? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Well well well...very impressive from Dynaste and Simonsig. Anybody knee jerked for any ante post bets involving these two? I'd like to see some Henderson specials as I think he could clean up at the festival in the top races. Simonsig, Captain Conan, Finian's Rainbow, Darlan, Sprinter Sacre to name a few. Hoping Simonsig and Captain Conan don't go head to head in the Arkle though. I'd mentioned in a 10 to follow thread that I felt he would have a good season and has a stable full of talent, so it is proving at the moment. Let's hope they are all bang on come March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 I'd like to see some Henderson specials as I think he could clean up at the festival in the top races. Simonsig' date=' Captain Conan, Finian's Rainbow, Darlan, Sprinter Sacre to name a few. Hoping Simonsig and Captain Conan don't go head to head in the Arkle though. I'd mentioned in a 10 to follow thread that I felt he would have a good season and has a stable full of talent, so it is proving at the moment. Let's hope they are all bang on come March.[/quote'] add Grandouet and Bobs worth to that list also!! He has an awesome hand this year The irish are going to need something special to stop Henderson having 5 or 6 as only Nicholls can get close from our trainers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 add Grandouet and Bobs worth to that list also!! He has an awesome hand this year The irish are going to need something special to stop Henderson having 5 or 6 as only Nicholls can get close from our trainers He had that hurdler too that won at odds on in the first race yesterday. There has to be some doubles and trebles to be had with his runners at the festival. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Backed Captain Chris at 25/1 for the GC with Betvictor, money back as free bet if he doesn't run. Too big after his KG performance, Cheltenham festival winner and staying on strongly in Ryanair last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Just having a bit of a catch up/look ahead at the moment and a few comments... 1. I really like Alfie Spinner for the Welsh National. Stamina in abundance, handles soft, course winner etc but Nick Williams' horses since Reve De Sivola's win have run poorly (2 PU and only 1 of 6 others got within 15l of the winner). Soll could be an interesting runner as well if coming on for his run in the Hennessy (midfield). Giant of a horse. 2. I wouldn't write off Ambion Wood just yet after disappointing on Saturday. Was beaten on his reappearance last year and Victor Dartnell's horses are out of form since the yard reopened (concern for Giles Cross). May well bounce back. 3. I'm really interested to see how the Venetia Williams-trained Zamdy Man gets on over hurdles. Looked a real hurdler in four starts on the flat where it looked like middle-distances on slow ground would see the best of him. Sizable gelding who looked a proper galloper (1m3f at Goodwood on quickish ground appeared too sharp) and I reckon he could prove a horse to follow. Interesting that his two entries for Saturday are in decent races including the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle at Chepstow despite not having run over timber yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 The more I dig, the stronger I am on Soll. Decided to take the plunge. Coral Welsh National - 1pt win Soll @ 16/1 (PP) It is without doubt that Teaforthree has a good chance but at 7/2 he represents no value in my eyes for such a competitive event, especially when you consider that one wasn't too far ahead of Jo Hughes' runner in the Hennessy. You can fairly argue that the step up in trip makes all the difference but it is not as if Soll won't enjoy the stiffer test as well. He was fairly well-fancied for the 4 miler at the Cheltenham Festival last year when brought down and he certainly looks like he has plenty of stamina. He's hugely unexposed having only raced five times under rules but is the right age and should be spot on for this. He stayed on strongly to win a Newcastle novice hurdle by 10l on soft ground (3m) back in January 2011, proving his stamina, and anything he did over hurdles would be a plus for this giant horse. He was off the track for almost a year prior to making his chasing debut for Willie Mullins and he ran a blinder to only just go down to a 135-rated rival in Son Amix, who had the benefit of a recent run. He battled on all the way to the line there and won over 2m4f next time despite looking like he'd enjoy a stronger test of stamina. He clearly handles deep ground as both of those runs came on heavy and he's a solid jumper on the whole. He put in a good round in the Hennessy last time apart from the 3rd last (beaten at the time) but faded to be 8th of 19 in the end. It was a good run considering Hughes has said since that the horse wasn't 100% ready for his return to action and that he's done plenty of work since. He wasn't far behind the favourite for the Welsh National at all and that one had already had a run prior to the Newbury showpiece. The form of the Hennessy looks strong so everything points to a good run from Hughes' runner in my eyes. Like I say, he's a good jumper (touch wood), unexposed, is the right age, has the right sort of weight and should be spot on for this. He appears to stay very well and has no problem on the ground. He also likes to be close up which can help in a race of this nature so essentially looks to have a rock solid chance at 16s. Hughes has said that she is excited about the race and I personally can see why. 16s looks a very fair price to me and if he jumps okay then he should be right there as come towards the business end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazycoolkat Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 I'd like to see some Henderson specials as I think he could clean up at the festival in the top races. Simonsig' date=' Captain Conan, Finian's Rainbow, Darlan, Sprinter Sacre to name a few. Hoping Simonsig and Captain Conan don't go head to head in the Arkle though. I'd mentioned in a 10 to follow thread that I felt he would have a good season and has a stable full of talent, so it is proving at the moment. Let's hope they are all bang on come March.[/quote'] Paddy Power and Ladbrokes offering 9s on Henderson winning the big three - Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and Gold Cup. Coral only going 7s! Considering he has the favourites in them all, as well as Grandouet and Long Run this seems a fair price. Obvious threats look Hurricane Fly and Silviniaco Conti, but well worth a small investment at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Looks like Alfie Spinner isn't going in the Welsh National. Dodged a bullet there! I suppose the comments from Jo Hughes about Soll were another reason to side with that one as he looks sure to take his chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Haven't had a proper look yet but I don't see why there is such a big price difference between Sona Sasta and Royal Charm. There was less than 2 lengths between them last time out with Royal Charm getting closer at the finish. Extra trip may well suit him and he is 4x the price of the Pipe horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Royal Charm is another who looks like going to Sandown instead mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Ah rite, so he is mate! thanks :ok Looking at the Sandown race, there seems to be quite a few going there instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Welsh National - Master Overseer - 1.5pts EW @ 12/1 William Hill David Pipe himself has described this horse as a plodder but that might just be good enough tomorrow. The age trend for this race is very strong in the last 10 years with just 3 placed horses in that time aged 10 or over but I am not taking age trends into account as much now, after Unioniste winning last time out and breaking an age trend that had stood for over 50 years! Master Overseer himself looks to be improving with age and he put in a career best effort last time out when battling on gamely at Cheltenham to win a grade 3 contest. He has already proven in the past that he is well suited to these marathon trips as he won the Sussex National at Plumpton back in 2010 and more recently won the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter earlier this year. He does have to put a poor effort behind him in this race last year but he was never travelling that day and connections are much more confident of a good run this year. He went into the race last year on the back of a poor run but comes here this year after a career best win. He is a horse that doesn't have many gears but he will keep on galloping when others have cried enough. He is very brave and will handle the ground which I expect to be very testing. He is still lightly raced for a 10 year old and looks to be getting better with age. He has never fallen in his career and Tom Scudamore has struck up a good relationship with him. I think at the very least he will give us a good run for our money and go close. Teaforthree has to be hugely respected as this has been the long term target for this horse. He has a cracking record at the track which is important but at the current price I would prefer to take a chance on the Pipe horse. David will be trying to win this race for the first time after his father Martin won it 5 times in 6 years in the 80's and 90's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewPunter Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Two more cheltfest punts this morning... 2pts on Champagne Fever winning any race at 7/1 (Will Hills) and 2pts on Henderson winning the CH,CC,GC (also Will Hills) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Two more cheltfest punts this morning... 2pts on Champagne Fever winning any race at 7/1 (Will Hills) and 2pts on Henderson winning the CH,CC,GC (also Will Hills) What price is the Henderson bet? That is quite tempting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Think it's about 9s. He has a good hand but these festival multiples rarely come up and it's not as if he doesn't have very stiff opposition in the CH and GC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Yeh but I suppose if you fancy Darlan which I do and Bobs Worth then its worth a little interest. Plus you have Grandouet and Long Run as back ups! Didn't one of his stable lads win over a million last year with a multiple on his horses? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Seen worse bets but it isn't for me personally. The CH is a race that's difficult to work out imo and I still fancy Sir Des Champs for the GC so that's the main reason why it doesn't appeal but that's just different opinions for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewPunter Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Its 9/1 mate. Of course its very speculative but if he did win the Champion Hurdle and Chase I wouldn't mind having 9/1 on Bobs Worth or Long Run winning the Gold Cup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 Put this up in my antepost thread back in December. *Welsh National > Teaforthree > 5 Points E/W @ 6/1 boylesports (1/4 odds 4 places)* Was looking at Rebecca Curtis's comments about this one's chances today. "He should run really well. He loves it round there and loves the soft ground, he jumps brilliant," Curtis told At The Races. "He's come out of the Hennessy really well. I don't think he got too hard a race. That is sometimes a worry in the Hennessy. He's bouncing at home and we're all set for it hopefully." Going by the reports, they expect this one to win I think. It's form behind Bob's Worth looks very good, that was a very good handicap with 5 very good horses in front of it that day, Bob's Worth, Tidal Bay, First Lieutenant, The Package and Hold On Julio. The longer trip is bound to suit, as it is an out and out galloper and stayer, and with 4 places on offer, and McCoy likely to ride, I have put an e/w bet on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 6/1 e/w is probably not a bad bet Aidy. Can't believe he's 5/2 in places though. May well win but I really can't get my head around that price. Hope he wins if Soll doesn't! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Re: Antepost bets & Discussion - Jump Season 2012/13 6/1 e/w is probably not a bad bet Aidy. Can't believe he's 5/2 in places though. May well win but I really can't get my head around that price. Hope he wins if Soll doesn't! 5/2 is a horrible price mate, it should be layed at that price. Should be no lower than 5/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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