fridays bbotd

[gman1]

410 brighton danceforgeorgie 2/1 bet365 still 5 pound well in despite a 6 pound penalty for her latest win as that does not come into place until saturday. means effectively shes running off a winning mark and should be up to winning again in quick fashion.

[Aidymac]

Re: fridays bbotd *Imperator Augustus - Musselburgh 4:00* Last 3 runs have been very poor, but those runs were not at this track, and it's last win came here at Musselburgh over course and distance in September 2011. It's record at Musselburgh is 4-2-1 from three runs, so obviouslt likes it here. When it won here last time out, it was on good to form ground, and has good to firm again tomorrow. It absolutely scooted up that day, beating Boy The Bell by 5 lengths. I think we will see a much improved performance here tomorrow. The Patrick Holmes stable is in good form with 2 winners from his last 9 runners. I am hoping it will run a big race at a price. *0.5 Points e/w @ 20/1 Hills BOG*

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: fridays bbotd Brighton 340 - Prodigality 5/1 BetVictor I backed this horse at York last time, only to see it touched off by a nose hair and I am hoping that I will get my money back tomorrow. He looks a horse on the upgrade and he will have conditions to suit. He will also have a very decent claimer on his back who is gradually going up in my estimations with each ride he takes. The form of his last two races look quite solid (without being spectacular) and I am a little surprised to see the generous odds of 5/1 available.

[smith17]

Re: fridays bbotd 18.00 Tipperary: Nocturnal Affair, 5/1 Paddy Power, 1pt win Nocturnal Affair is having his first run since finishing sixth in a group 1 on World Cup night at Meydan, 2¼L behind Ortensia. Before that he ran well in a strong handicap to finish third, just ½L behind Invincible Ash and Sole Power. Today's ground is a concern but he won a group three in South Africa on yielding so hopefully he will handle it ok. Trainer David Marnane has a good record at Tipperary with an 16% strike rate and a £28 profit to a £1 stake over the last five years.

[Boulder5111]

Re: fridays bbotd N8.20 Whozthecat 0.5pt E/W 7/1 Boylesports 6 furlongs on top of the ground is what brings out the best in this horse and it looks poised to run a good race tonight. It ran a really good race last time out, but it's the horses run around this time last year when 2nd over c&d that really catches the eye. That was off a 10lb higher mark and with the jockeys 5lb claim coming into play, it looks like a good time to exploit a very reasonable mark.

[Edberg]

Re: fridays bbotd 3.40 Brighton ANOTHER CITIZEN win @ 4/1 bog (Ladbrokes and Victor Chandler) Another Citizen is a 4yo gelding trained by Tim Easterby who has been in very good form this summer finishing never out of the money in his last 7 starts (2 wins, 2 seconds and 3 fourths) since his success in a seller at Ripon (6f, good) 7 weeks ago. His 4th career success came at Thirsk (6f, good) in a class 5 apprentice handicap 7 days ago when bolted up racing off a mark of 64 and unpenalized for that success Another Citizen ran another very solid race at Wolverhampton 4 days ago (6f, class 5 handicap) finishing 2nd of 12, beaten just a head, racing off 66 on what was just his second ever start on Polytrack (both times second). He runs here off 63 and his rating will be 72 starting from tomorrow so it's 9lb ahead of the handicapper. Trip is perfect (all his 4 career wins came over 6f), no worries for the ground, draw is good, stable still in good form with 4 winners this week and Ted Durcan is surely a positive jockey booking. Durcan is 4-17 (24%) this year when riding for Tim Easterby and 4-23 (17%) in the last 5 seasons here at Brighton a track where Tim Easterby is having his first runner in the last 5 years and this is the sole runner for the Nothern Yorkshire-based trainer in the South East Coast track and it's worth underlining the horse will travel 600 miles just for this race. Prodigality, Courageous and Night Trade are the main dangers but none of them seems to be so well handicapped at the moment.

[robertob]

Re: fridays bbotd 17.00 Musselburgh: Byron Bear @ 6/1 VC Only won win to date but this win came under similar conditions at Pontefract one year ago. He was twice well beaten this year but his last performance at Beverly was a big step forward. He had to overcome the widest draw but travelled very well for a long time and finished very strongly despite racing very wide. He's racing from a featherweight here today and with talented Amy Ryan booked for the ride I expect a good performance again.

[corky]

Re: fridays bbotd 1600 musselburgh 1pt win green howard 7/2 bet365 pretty consistent horse, 9 runs,4 wins,2 seconds, 2 thirds and a second last,ground last time out may have been the downfall,and todays firmer ground may help, hope so as im going to musselburgh to see it

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: fridays bbotd 4.40 Brighton - 1pt win Essell @ 8/1 (SJ) Mick Channon's horses are in fine form and I'm very interested now this filly is stepped back up in trip. Its only previous try over this 1m2f distance came in her second maiden when well held. That was no surprise given her clearly modest ability as she was entered in three pretty decent maidens. She should be better than a mark of 59, though, on pedigree, with her dam being a listed winner, but she's obviously not up to anything like that. Having ignored her runs in maidens, her handicap efforts have naturally been a fair bit better. She came here first over a mile off 65 and there wasn't a huge amount of pace on (field let front-runner do its own thing). She never got involved but did stay on a bit in the dying stages to pass a few rivals. Shaped as if needing further/a drop in the weights. Has run well at Bath twice since, once ridden more prominently, and once more restrained. She wasn't disgraced on either occasion and again shaped as if a 2f step up in distance would be the making of her. She obviously doesn't have much of a turn of foot but should relish this stiffer test being by Singspiel and out of a mile-running mare. She's dropping down the weights to a decent mark in my opinion and this isn't a very strong contest. A 0-60 over this trip should suit and is worth a good bet for a yard in form.

[markmywords]

Re: fridays bbotd 20:20 Newm Joe Packet - Hasn't ran in a class 3 for a year now. Been running in class 2 and a couple of listed races notching a couple of places. Is a CD winner on same going as today only 3lb higher than last win. Been backed in a fair bit today opening 13/2 now 4/1. 1pt win 4/1 bet365

[nickf88]

Re: fridays bbotd 3:20 Lingfield - Mary's Pet 1pt win 7/2 Paddy Power. Interesting jockey booking considering it's mostly ridden by claimers even when the money is down. Ran very well at Southwell recently and won then tried to back it up at Chepstow and was beaten a shoulder. Seems to run well on the AW so hopefully can try to make all or track the pace and kick on near the end. Feasibly treated so worth a decent bet for me in which there are a few dangers but I do like the chances of my selection today.

[switzerland]

Re: fridays bbotd 6.00 Tipperary - Katla - EW 20/1 WH Back after a few weeks off and hoping to hit the ground running with Katla. Some decent racing at Tipperary today and Katla looks a big price to me at 20s. I'm willing to ignore her last run as it was just too bad to be true - she was beaten after a couple of furlongs having been sent off favourite. Prior to that she ran a cracker in a G3 over today trip and similar ground conditions. She finished about a 1length 3rd to the well regarded Definightly and Judge n Jury. 5f could be her best trip as she has rarely been out of the frame over the distance and she has a tongue tie fitted today. Plenty of decent sprinters in opposition but its often a case of who turns up best on the day.

[Lodge]

Re: fridays bbotd 5.10 Brighton - Soundbyte @ 10/1 Paddypower Struggling to find bets at the minute but think this one has a good chance back on the flat. I liked the look of Hilfiger and was planning on waiting to see whether the market spoke in his favour or not but now that he is a non runner i am siding with Soundbyte. A winner of 5 flat races from 1m3f to 2m all on pretty good ground he returns to the flat turf after a few hurdle runs. The last of his wins came in August at Chepstow over this distance (12f) in a class 6 handicap off of a mark of 58, the win was in emphatic style (9 lengths). He was subsequently raised to a mark of 70 and never quite cut it, up in class on his next few outings. He returns to turf off of 63 today and has handy claimer Willy Twiston Davies taking off 7lb. Back in a class 6 race for the first time since his last win and runs over a C&D where has has won twice from 4 attempts. Should be fit from his hurdle outings and appears to have a decent chance to me.

[BillyHills]

Re: fridays bbotd 7.50 Newmarket: Coupe De Ville (5/6 Bet365) Effectively a two horse race and the Hannon horse can get back to winning ways now the ground has firmed up a bit. Has ran plenty of useful races in his time including 5th to Camelot in the Guineas and not beaten that far in the French version. Just not had the ground to do himself justice and looks to have found a decent opportunity here, steps up to 10f but with three runners it may boil down to speed and he has plenty of that.

[Falbrav]

Re: fridays bbotd AL'S MEMORY 4.10 Brighton. 1 point win. Ran well last time and a repeat of that can see him competitive today. The trip and ground's not a concern and the track should be alright, so off a fair mark should go well. 15/2 Bet365 BOG

[Verisimilitude]

Re: fridays bbotd Not My Choice 4.50 Lingfield. 1 point win. Needs to bounce back, but if he does then he has every chance of current mark. Goes on this surface and the trip's fine, so all about bouncing back. 18/1 Boylesports (bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: fridays bbotd Later runners;

N8.20 Whozthecat 0.5pt E/W 7/1 Boylesports 6 furlongs on top of the ground is what brings out the best in this horse and it looks poised to run a good race tonight. It ran a really good race last time out, but it's the horses run around this time last year when 2nd over c&d that really catches the eye. That was off a 10lb higher mark and with the jockeys 5lb claim coming into play, it looks like a good time to exploit a very reasonable mark.

20:20 Newm Joe Packet - Hasn't ran in a class 3 for a year now. Been running in class 2 and a couple of listed races notching a couple of places. Is a CD winner on same going as today only 3lb higher than last win. Been backed in a fair bit today opening 13/2 now 4/1. 1pt win 4/1 bet365

7.50 Newmarket: Coupe De Ville (5/6 Bet365) Effectively a two horse race and the Hannon horse can get back to winning ways now the ground has firmed up a bit. Has ran plenty of useful races in his time including 5th to Camelot in the Guineas and not beaten that far in the French version. Just not had the ground to do himself justice and looks to have found a decent opportunity here, steps up to 10f but with three runners it may boil down to speed and he has plenty of that.