Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August

[McNasara]

[TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Thursday 9 August 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]AC Omonia Nicosia v Crvena Zvezda (17:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.04 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.2 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Dynamo Moscow v Dundee United (17:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.37 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FK Aktobe v Racing Genk (17:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.35 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.3 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]IF Elfsborg v AC Horsens (17:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.85 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]NK Slaven Belupo v Athletic Bilbao (17:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6.8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.1 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.6 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Aalesunds FK v APOEL (18:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.9 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Anorthosis Famagusta v FC Dila Gori (18:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FK Mladá Boleslav v FC Twente (18:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.9 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.75 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.83 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Legia Warszawa v SV Josko Ried (18:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.58 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.9 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Metalurh Donetsk v Tromsø (18:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.82 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Rosenborg BK v Servette FC (18:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.68 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.9 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]BSC Young Boys v Kalmar FF (18:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.53 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.33 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9.2 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]KAA Gent v Videoton FC (18:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.57 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.35 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Spartak Trnava v Steaua Bucuresti (18:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.55 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.45 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.3 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]AC Sparta Praha v FC Trenkwalder Admira (19:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.45 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8.5 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FC Viktoria Plzen v Ruch Chorzow (19:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.53 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FK Zeta Golubovci v FK Sarajevo (19:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.55 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Lech Poznan v AIK (19:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.98 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.5 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]NK Mura 05 v Arsenal Kyiv (19:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.9 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.64 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]PAOK v Bnei Yehuda (19:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.55 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8.9 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Vitesse v Anzhi Makhachkala (19:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.66 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.05 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Bursaspor Kulübü v KuPS (19:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.26 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Hannover 96 v St. Patrick's Athletic (19:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.18 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 25 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Rapid Bucuresti v Heerenveen (19:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Internazionale v Hajduk Split (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 17 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Olympique Marseille v Eskisehirspor (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Liverpool v FK Gomel (20:05 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.22 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 19 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]SK Rapid Wien v Vojvodina (20:05 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8.2 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Marítimo v Asteras Tripolis (21:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.65 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.85 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[HastGill1]

Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August Hannover 96 v St Patricks I expected this game to be almost unbackable with daft prices, apparently not! How can Hannover be -1.5AH at 1.53? Or clean sheet be at 1.7!? I backed Hannover heavily in the first game a week ago when they ran out 3-0 winners, St Pats put up a very decent fight but really didn't create much and their defending was woeful. Hannover scored with nearly all their clear cut chances, I can only remember them having 4 really. St Pats were sharper and their technical ability was pretty good compared to other Irish sides I've seen over the last few years, in short they were a credit to the league but they are halfway through their league and Hannover were early in pre-season. I do remind you though this is a top 7 Bundesliga side against a semi-professional team from Ireland, Hannover were poor and still won 3-0 away. I gather the bookies think there is going to be a lot of squad rotation from Hannover, either that or they are overestimating St Pats performance in the first leg. I can't see Hannover changing their side massively, will they change a few players? Probably, they have a stronger squad this year though and whoever they put out will likely be of better quality than St Pats can offer. This game will still be forming a large part of their pre-season preparation, and to suddenly play a total reserve side wouldn't make any sense but is the only thing that can justify these odds, their fans don't seem to think it will be the case. They play Man United in a friendly on the 11th and I suppose they might want to rest a couple of players for that to make a statement for the new season, but its still a friendly and won't give them anything even if they do get a result. People think 'they don't need to get a result, they won 3-0 in the first leg', which is true, but unless they suddenly start playing at 50% of their capacity I can't see them not winning by a couple at least, the stadium won't be full but there should be 25,000ish in there which would make it about half full. As I said last week there is a sharp contrast between their home record and away record, their away record in the Bundesliga isn't too good. Their home record in the Bundesliga and the Europa League last season is superb. In the B'Liga if we go back over the last 2 seasons (34 games) they have lost just 4 games and all of these came two seasons ago so last season they went the entire campaign unbeaten! In the Europa League they lost just 1 of 7 last season in their run to the quarters, against the eventual winners Athletico Madrid. I've got a lot on this already, but I guess I screwed up a bit because I took the early odds thinking they would be as good as it got and didn't wait to see how bet365 priced it up, and if I waited I would have given myself more potential profit. Bit pissed off, but can't complain too much as I was happy with the prices when they were released. I put a couple of bets up in the CL this week but this game looks a far stronger play. Here's what I had taken prior to today, you can most of these plays at slightly better odds at bet365.. Hannover Clean Sheet - 1.62+1.7 - bwin+betinternet - 18.5 Points total Hannover -1EH - 1.5+1.53 - bwin+boylesports - 18.5 Points total Hannover -2AH - 1.75 - betinternet - 10 Points Hannover -3AH - 3.1 - betinternet - 5 Points

[McNasara]

Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August Good post mate, I understand that your bets are formed in excessive difference between Bundesliga vs LoI team, and based on the first leg... but it is interesting stake, I wonder whether this is definitely your strongest one-game-bets ever...:eek

[andreis90]

Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August Mura - Arsenal, Arsenal goals over 1,5 with Marathonbet 1,68Arsenal won last gme 3-0, but they have technical defeat because they had player on the field, who was disqalified before. So they have to score 3 or more goals away. I know well this team, in the ukr champ they sow nice attacking team and it is no problem for them to score 2 goals away with slovenian team. Good luck.

[Fedar]

Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August

Mura - Arsenal' date=' Arsenal goals over 1,5 with Marathonbet 1,68Arsenal won last gme 3-0, but they have technical defeat because they had player on the field, who was disqalified before. So they have to score 3 or more goals away. I know well this team, in the ukr champ they sow nice attacking team and it is no problem for them to score 2 goals away with slovenian team. Good luck.[/quote'] Be careful with this one. I watched basically all of Mura's games before Arsenal, because they played in second round against my team. And I must say - those Slovenians really know how to PARK THE BUS WELL. That's basically what they do - they have tall and physical defenders and they try to pack the area in front of their goal with as many people as possible. The pitch in Lendava where they play in Europe is not in perfect condition as well and it limits supposed technical superiority of Arsenal. Now that Mura has unexpeced 3-goal advantage I doubt they will leave their half of the pitch more than just few times. I myself won't take this bet at such price.

[godmato]

Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August Rapid Bucuresti – Heerenven Europa League August 8, 2012 Edit Rapid Bucuresti – Heerenven 08.08.2012 19:30 CET (numbers are rounded as 25.31 is not that different from 25 in my opinion in such cases) Europeans odds: 2.1 – 3.25 – 3.15 Asian odds: AH -0.25 on Rapid as favorite, under/over line is set to 2.5. First of all let me just say ))))). Why is Rapid favorite in this game? First leg ended 4-0 for Heerenven and only one team played in that match and was not Rapid! 99% it is well known what team will pass through here so this game is almost for nothing. A game for nothing does not have such big favorite team. But because game is meaningless I will not have any bet offline despite the fact that I don’t see any reasons for Rapid being such favorite. Game will be played on neutral ground on National Arena in Bucharest. Pitch is awful there. Temperatures will be high tomorrow night. Rapid Bucuresti will miss Pancu (best striker), Marius Constantin (central defender – regular), Burca (central defender), Abrudan (central defender), N Grigore (defensive midfielder – regular) and Pavlovic (defensive midfielder – bench player). This simplifies things: central defenders will be Oros and Glauber. Glauber is out of form since 6 months already while Oros makes mistake after mistake. If N Grigore and Pavlovic are out Rapid will play without a defender midfielder. Of course Teixeira or Grigorie can play there but they are not defensive midfielders. They are offensive players. Will Rapid go for a big win? Who knows with this coach…I doubt. Things are not going well at Rapid wright now. Team almost lost any chance for european competition, lost 4 points already in domestic league, won only 1-0 against second division material CSMS Iasi at home (and trust me Iasi had many chances to score), team looks like is finishing the championship and not just begining, after 60 minute team looses stamina. Now Rapid will play against a team formed only by young guns all under 23 years old. It was hilarious to see Rapid in first leg being thrashed by such young players. Defense made mistake after mistake, midfield could not hold the ball while offensive was pure crap. Will all these change so soon? I doubt. But still this is Europa League and anything can happen. No bet offline!

[Fedar]

Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August So, what we have for tomorrow. First thing I noticed and I really don't enjoy is that I had looks at the odds several hours ago and I double-check them now, and I see some of them have fallen considerably over the last two hours. In particular -Omonia Nicosia's win. Omonia was priced at 2.05 two hours ago at bet365, now it is just 1.75. I have a feeling that the prices might adjust back within one or two hours before the games, so maybe it is a good idea to place the bets immediately before the start. 1. Omonia Nicosia - Red Star Belgrade Omonia @ 1.87 (betfair) I will stick with supporting Cypriotic teams which has beena very successful strategy this summer. Omonia is one of the best teams in country and the most popular one (known as the team of the people in Cyprus). They are very successful in the domestic league but they have been really unlucky in Europe so far, where they lag behind their local rivals APOEL and Anorthosis. I feel that Omonia's time to impress in Europe has come and it coincides with the great rise of Cypriotic football. The stadium at Nicosia will be over-crowded and boiling with a latin-american atmosphere (Omonia's fans are famous for being the best, most vocal and colorful supporters in the country). I don't know much details about Omonia's team, but they seem to be very solid defensively, as any other top Cyprus team, and they have some quality foreign players. Red Star, despite their great history, is very inconsistent team in a very deep and long-lasting crisis. They continuously fail in Europe in the last years and they cannot compete also in their domestic scene. From what I've seen in the Serbian league, the only players to impress in Red Star's ranks are Brazilians Cadu and Evandro, and young forward Filip Kasalica. "1-6" to Rennes, "2-3" to Slovan, "2-4" to Slavia Prague, two very dfficult and dramatic wins against outsiders Dinamo Tbilisi and Naftan....these results don't impress, the least to say.... 2. Aalesund - APOEL [email protected] (betfair) A mediocre Norwegian team (10th currently), best team in Cyprus and 1/4 finalist in CL, a tie which has not been decided yet....Well, 2.24 seems like a great deal given these circumstances. I think there is no doubt about the class gap between the two sides. I agree that Aalesund seems like a very tough team at home - 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses, including great home victories vs. AZ Alkmaar, Elfsborg (4:0) and Ferencvaros. And maybe, if APOEL had won with big margin in Cyprus, I would have taken Aalesund. But APOEL is a very smart team, extremely solid defensively and knowing well how to take their chances up-front. And APOEL realize that 2:1 is a very soft and risky lead, so they will try to score at least once. I think that their better technical ability and their impeccable defense will be the key to the outcome in this game. Weather won't be much of a factor here (I know we exploited this a lot when Cyprus teams were hosting), because Scandinavian teams could draw advantage from weather conditions in the later months of the year, not in summer, unlike the Cyprus teams. 3. Anorthosis - Dila Gori Anorthosis to Win to Nil @ 2.00 (betfair) I know I am over-exploiting those Cyprus bets, but since they are working I see no reason not to try another one. "1-0" victory to Anorthosis in Georgia last week, where they seemed to haven't let many chances for their hosts to score (at least the video on youtube shows so). I don't see the situation being any better for the Georgians in the Subsaharn hot Cyrpus weather, at the full stadium, against a far superior team. 4. Aktobe - Genk Under 2.5 @ 1.95 (bet365) Aktobe has been very, very solid at home in Europe. They have only one home loss in Europe (0:2 to Werder Bremen). 11 out of their 13 home games in Europe have been "Under 2.5" (impressive). Actually, one of the only two "overs" was two weeks ago against Milsami Moldavia - 3:0. Their fans usually create good atmosphere in home games in Europe and leave only few empty seats. 2:1 to Genk in the first game will also in my opinion contribute to a low-scoring and tactical game. 5. Mura - Arsenal Kyiv Under 2.5 @ 2.20 (betfair) This pick is not based on stats, but entirely on my impressions from the four euro matches of Mura that I watched this summer, and from the result in the first game. Mura without any doubt will park the bus as they did in all their other games in Europe. 3:0 administrative defeat in the first game, will make Arsenal very nervous and as the clock passes by the feeling of anxiety in Ukrainians' ranks will rise. The stadium where the game will take place (Mura don't play in Europe at their home town, but in Lendava) is small, but Mura gets relatively good support from the stands. The Slovenians are also smart and have full equipment of tricks for teasing their opponent and time-wasting.

[liki]

Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August For everybody who think Mura is playing today in small stadium in Lendava. Match will be played in Maribor on NK Maribor stadium where also Slovenian national team play many of their matches because stadium in Lendava is to small to play european matches from third round and above.

[MPLouis]

Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August

Mura - Arsenal' date=' Arsenal goals over 1,5 with Marathonbet 1,68Arsenal won last gme 3-0, but they have technical defeat because they had player on the field, who was disqalified before. So they have to score 3 or more goals away. I know well this team, in the ukr champ they sow nice attacking team and it is no problem for them to score 2 goals away with slovenian team. Good luck.[/quote'] Just noticed this fixture and had a look at last week's first leg - Stats from Uefa website: Arsenal/Mura Shots on target 8/1 Shots off target 12/2 Corners 12/2 http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuropaleague/season=2013/matches/round=2000354/match=2009779/index.html Arsenal won the game 3-0 but Mura were awarded a 3-0 win because Arsenal fielded an ineligible player. The Ukrainian side will surely press hard to recover from this unexpected position and I think they will believe that they can do it. It's hard to imagine anything except an Arsenal win today, and the current odds on this look attractive to me. An Arsenal win by a few goals looks likely to me. Two bets that look worth taking to me at the moment are: Straight win 1.4 BetFred 3-way handicap Arsenal Kiev -1 2.1 Ladbrokes (Note because this is a 3-way handicap, Arsenal have to win by at least 2 goals for the bet to win)

[HastGill1]

Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August

3. Anorthosis - Dila Gori Anorthosis to Win to Nil @ 2.00 (betfair) I know I am over-exploiting those Cyprus bets, but since they are working I see no reason not to try another one. "1-0" victory to Anorthosis in Georgia last week, where they seemed to haven't let many chances for their hosts to score (at least the video on youtube shows so). I don't see the situation being any better for the Georgians in the Subsaharn hot Cyrpus weather, at the full stadium, against a far superior team.

Yeah, I'm back Anorthosis as well. Didn't take them in the last round at home because I had loads on, but they won comfortably 3-0 and I was kicking myself after. Cyprus is certainly an improving nation and hopefully AEL Limassol make it through to the group stages of the CL as well after their impressive win last night. Anorthosis have spent a bit of cash in the summer after failing to win the league and they look to be in a good position to win it back, I watched the highlights of the game also and Dila Gori only had one or two moments where they looked useful, one of Dora's apparently better players Gogua got sent off in the first leg and will be suspended tonight. As you say the weather will be topping 100 degrees today and the match is kicking off 8pm local time so it will still be 80+. They are a strong home side and I expect them to win this by a couple at least. Anorthosis -1,-1.5AH - 1.81 - betinternet - 10 Points

[HastGill1]

Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August

Good post mate' date=' I understand that your bets are formed in excessive difference between Bundesliga vs LoI team, and based on the first leg... but it is interesting stake, I wonder whether this is definitely your strongest one-game-bets ever...:eek[/quote'] Yep, its a v.strong bet :(..As a minor update Abdellaoue will be starting for Hannover tonight which is a plus as he has been an important forward over the last couple of seasons, they have a fully fit squad other than Felipe and I'm guessing Sakai who has been at the Olympics with Japan. Both these missed the first leg anyhow. St Pat's have the same squad for the first leg also, there should be 25-30,000 in the stadium tonight.

[McNasara]

Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August

1. Omonia Nicosia - Red Star Belgrade Omonia @ 1.87 (betfair) 2. Aalesund - APOEL [email protected] (betfair) 5. Mura - Arsenal Kyiv Under 2.5 @ 2.20 (betfair)

1. Omonia will be without key midfielder Efrem and key defender Karipidis (captain). Red Star is not good team, but have nothing to lose tonight. I like their "away games" which suit them, with fast counter attacks through Lazovic, Milunovic and Kasalica. The weather will be humid, but it won't disturb the Serbs (about 35 degrees here in recent days). In the stands will be about 15,000 fans, but Red Star will have the support of their and Olympiakos fans. 2. APOEL will be without key striker Ailton. And they come from 40 to 20 degrees, on the artificial pitch. 5. Mura will play in Maribor, not Lendava, like @liki said. Also home team have Horvat (key mf) and Fajic (topscorer) returns for this game. On the other hand, Arsenal will be without Florescu (reg mf) and regular defenders Khomin & Rafael. Their president has promised 100 thousand dollars for each scored goal in Maribor. It is clear that I have no high confidence in selected predictions at this time, but won't go the opposite. @HastGill good luck mate, it would be a monthly stake for me...

[Simeon Borisof]

Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August Mura-Arsenal I watched Mura-CSKA and CSKA-Mura last round and i can say that Mura is... let's say misunderstanding.For whole 3 games(2 against CSKA and 1 against Arsenal) they have scored 1 goal and have had 6 shots on target.Arsenal smashed them out in Kiev and should score at least 5.Mura got lucky because the situations in front of their door were when the scoreline was 3:0 and Arsenal's forwards were not so much focused.I think Arsenal will qualify. Arsenal\Arsenal HT\FT 1.72 bet365 GL!

[kojic2003]

Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August

1. Omonia Nicosia - Red Star Belgrade Omonia @ 1.87 (betfair) I will stick with supporting Cypriotic teams which has beena very successful strategy this summer. Omonia is one of the best teams in country and the most popular one (known as the team of the people in Cyprus). They are very successful in the domestic league but they have been really unlucky in Europe so far, where they lag behind their local rivals APOEL and Anorthosis. I feel that Omonia's time to impress in Europe has come and it coincides with the great rise of Cypriotic football. The stadium at Nicosia will be over-crowded and boiling with a latin-american atmosphere (Omonia's fans are famous for being the best, most vocal and colorful supporters in the country). I don't know much details about Omonia's team, but they seem to be very solid defensively, as any other top Cyprus team, and they have some quality foreign players. Red Star, despite their great history, is very inconsistent team in a very deep and long-lasting crisis. They continuously fail in Europe in the last years and they cannot compete also in their domestic scene. From what I've seen in the Serbian league, the only players to impress in Red Star's ranks are Brazilians Cadu and Evandro, and young forward Filip Kasalica. "1-6" to Rennes, "2-3" to Slovan, "2-4" to Slavia Prague, two very dfficult and dramatic wins against outsiders Dinamo Tbilisi and Naftan....these results don't impress, the least to say...

Young forward Kasalica? Mate, he'll be 24 in a few months.Cadu will be on the sidelines for six months, due to a very serious injury. Evandro is a joke. Red Star struggled to break Omonia down in the first leg, but they had the game completely under control. The ball possession of 71%-29% in the favor of Red Star speaks for itself. Omonia had 10 men in their penalty box fighting for their lives all night long, having hardly seen the ball. We'll see how it works when Omonia open up the space a little bit. In the likes of Lazovic and Kasalica, Red Star have got plenty of pace and sharpness up front, so they could enjoy trying to hit Omonia on the break.

[Fedar]

Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August

1. Omonia will be without key midfielder Efrem and key defender Karipidis (captain). Red Star is not good team, but have nothing to lose tonight. I like their "away games" which suit them, with fast counter attacks through Lazovic, Milunovic and Kasalica. The weather will be humid, but it won't disturb the Serbs (about 35 degrees here in recent days). In the stands will be about 15,000 fans, but Red Star will have the support of their and Olympiakos fans. 2. APOEL will be without key striker Ailton. And they come from 40 to 20 degrees, on the artificial pitch. 5. Mura will play in Maribor, not Lendava, like @liki said. Also home team have Horvat (key mf) and Fajic (topscorer) returns for this game. On the other hand, Arsenal will be without Florescu (reg mf) and regular defenders Khomin & Rafael. Their president has promised 100 thousand dollars for each scored goal in Maribor. It is clear that I have no high confidence in selected predictions at this time, but won't go the opposite. @HastGill good luck mate, it would be a monthly stake for me...

Thanks for the update, mate, but I don't think it changes much the situation. One or two players missing is nothing special - we ain't talking about Messi and Cristiano here. Moving from Lendava to Maribor won't make Mura suddenly open-up and leave their "park-the-bus" tactics, and I believe they can actually receive better support from the stands there. Artifical pitch could make some difference, maybe it has played some role in Aalesund's good home form. But it still doesn't change some facts like APOEL being of higher class and more experience.

[AHughes]

Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August Onomia Nicosia v Crvena Zvezda Anorthosis v Dila Gori 2.46 with Betfred The Cypriot league is improving proven by APOEL's involvement in the last 16 of the Champions League last year. Onomia carry a 0-0 from their away leg, a common thing amongst Cyprus teams away from home where they do normally keep it really tight. The Serbian league is on the down at the minute. If you take the Leagues co-effiecient into value the Cypriot league is currently 13th with the Serbian league sat in 25th. The heat could play a big part in this match also with temperatures in Cyprus at this time of year Soaring. Anorthosis face off against Dila Gori of Georgia. Neither side has started their league, but I think Anorthosis are a better side here. They lead 1-0 from the 1st leg and yet again the temperature could cause the Georgians problems. Yet again if you look at the league co-efficient the Georgian league is currently 31st which is not far off all the semi professional leagues.

[tommy schnurmann]

Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August i dont really believe that Ried will progress against Legia, so i think Legia -0.75 @1.8 is worth a try Polish teams play an equally awful european season as austrian teams so far this summer and no doubt that Legia defense is their weak spot, now even more so with Wawrzyniak suspended and they cant replace him appropiate, but Legia is better team than Austrian bundesliga midfield side Ried, who were still lucky with referee in 1st leg to win the match 2-1. over 2.5 @1.9 certainly looks playable too. I somehow feel more confident with Legia line, cause i'm not sure that Ried will really exploit Legias weak defense with effective counter attacking strikes, though it seems not unlikely that both teams will score indeed.

[kevshat]

Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August 6pts Liverpool to win to nil 4/5 Coral I think it is a fairly obvious statement that Liverpool will win this match but at 1/5 I’m not a player. Admittedly it is still their pre-season and there will be a lot of going through the motions about the hosts in this match, especially with them being ahead in the tie but I expect to see a few quality moments from them in the game and given that, and given that I expect them to be dominant in defence which will be helped by Reina’s return, I think the 4/5 about Liverpool winning to nil is an excellent bet even at this stage of the season. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/liverpool-vs-gomel-betting-liverpool-look-an-excellent-price-to-win-second-leg-without-conceding

[HastGill1]

Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August

Hannover 96 v St Patricks I expected this game to be almost unbackable with daft prices, apparently not! How can Hannover be -1.5AH at 1.53? Or clean sheet be at 1.7!? I backed Hannover heavily in the first game a week ago when they ran out 3-0 winners, St Pats put up a very decent fight but really didn't create much and their defending was woeful. Hannover scored with nearly all their clear cut chances, I can only remember them having 4 really. St Pats were sharper and their technical ability was pretty good compared to other Irish sides I've seen over the last few years, in short they were a credit to the league but they are halfway through their league and Hannover were early in pre-season. I do remind you though this is a top 7 Bundesliga side against a semi-professional team from Ireland, Hannover were poor and still won 3-0 away. I gather the bookies think there is going to be a lot of squad rotation from Hannover, either that or they are overestimating St Pats performance in the first leg. I can't see Hannover changing their side massively, will they change a few players? Probably, they have a stronger squad this year though and whoever they put out will likely be of better quality than St Pats can offer. This game will still be forming a large part of their pre-season preparation, and to suddenly play a total reserve side wouldn't make any sense but is the only thing that can justify these odds, their fans don't seem to think it will be the case. They play Man United in a friendly on the 11th and I suppose they might want to rest a couple of players for that to make a statement for the new season, but its still a friendly and won't give them anything even if they do get a result. People think 'they don't need to get a result, they won 3-0 in the first leg', which is true, but unless they suddenly start playing at 50% of their capacity I can't see them not winning by a couple at least, the stadium won't be full but there should be 25,000ish in there which would make it about half full. As I said last week there is a sharp contrast between their home record and away record, their away record in the Bundesliga isn't too good. Their home record in the Bundesliga and the Europa League last season is superb. In the B'Liga if we go back over the last 2 seasons (34 games) they have lost just 4 games and all of these came two seasons ago so last season they went the entire campaign unbeaten! In the Europa League they lost just 1 of 7 last season in their run to the quarters, against the eventual winners Athletico Madrid. I've got a lot on this already, but I guess I screwed up a bit because I took the early odds thinking they would be as good as it got and didn't wait to see how bet365 priced it up, and if I waited I would have given myself more potential profit. Bit pissed off, but can't complain too much as I was happy with the prices when they were released. I put a couple of bets up in the CL this week but this game looks a far stronger play. Here's what I had taken prior to today, you can most of these plays at slightly better odds at bet365.. Hannover Clean Sheet - 1.62+1.7 - bwin+betinternet - 18.5 Points total WIN Hannover -1EH - 1.5+1.53 - bwin+boylesports - 18.5 Points total WIN Hannover -2AH - 1.75 - betinternet - 10 Points VOID Hannover -3AH - 3.1 - betinternet - 5 Points LOSS

Yeah, I'm back Anorthosis as well. Didn't take them in the last round at home because I had loads on, but they won comfortably 3-0 and I was kicking myself after. Cyprus is certainly an improving nation and hopefully AEL Limassol make it through to the group stages of the CL as well after their impressive win last night. Anorthosis have spent a bit of cash in the summer after failing to win the league and they look to be in a good position to win it back, I watched the highlights of the game also and Dila Gori only had one or two moments where they looked useful, one of Dora's apparently better players Gogua got sent off in the first leg and will be suspended tonight. As you say the weather will be topping 100 degrees today and the match is kicking off 8pm local time so it will still be 80+. They are a strong home side and I expect them to win this by a couple at least. Anorthosis -1,-1.5AH - 1.81 - Betinternet - 10 Points VOID

Strange night :lol..Anorthosis were bloody poor never got going at all, I stopped watching when the first Gori goal went in, and saw later on when the Hannover match started they were 3-0 down which was incredible. Then I check on the final score after the Hannover game that it was abandoned and the nice people at betinternet have given me my stake back! :lol I'm guessing the fans rioted or something? See an Anorthosis player was sent off just before so that, and being 3-0 down to a team from Georgia, obviously tipped them over the edge!..Thanks anyway guys you saved me a fair few quid. The minimum score I needed in the Hannover game was 2-0 and so it finished but I'm not sure how. St Pats played well again and pressed the ball superbly all over the pitch. They didn't really create much but from a couple of set pieces and an early shot which hit the top of the bar. Hannover scored 2 headers from 2 crosses but how they didn't get the third one which would have put me in major profit I don't know, missed 5 clear chances in the last 15 minutes alone, I was tearing my hair out at that point but can't complain too much. With the Anorthosis game being abandoned its turned into a decent night anyway ;).

[MPLouis]

Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August

Just noticed this fixture and had a look at last week's first leg - Stats from Uefa website: Arsenal/Mura Shots on target 8/1 Shots off target 12/2 Corners 12/2 http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuropaleague/season=2013/matches/round=2000354/match=2009779/index.html Arsenal won the game 3-0 but Mura were awarded a 3-0 win because Arsenal fielded an ineligible player. The Ukrainian side will surely press hard to recover from this unexpected position and I think they will believe that they can do it. It's hard to imagine anything except an Arsenal win today, and the current odds on this look attractive to me. An Arsenal win by a few goals looks likely to me. Two bets that look worth taking to me at the moment are: Straight win 1.4 BetFred 3-way handicap Arsenal Kiev -1 2.1 Ladbrokes (Note because this is a 3-way handicap, Arsenal have to win by at least 2 goals for the bet to win)

Result: Mura 0 Arsenal Kiev 2 Bets won :) I saw some of the game, and my impression was of mainly one-way traffic, Arsenal Kiev dominating and having most of the chances. They took the lead early on, and had a man sent off later in the first half. Despite this, it looked as though they dominated the second half and scored a second goal eventually. Mura held out to win 3-2 on aggregate, but rarely threatened themselves from what I saw.

[Simeon Borisof]

Re: Third qualifying round, 2nd leg > 9 August

Mura-Arsenal I watched Mura-CSKA and CSKA-Mura last round and i can say that Mura is... let's say misunderstanding.For whole 3 games(2 against CSKA and 1 against Arsenal) they have scored 1 goal and have had 6 shots on target.Arsenal smashed them out in Kiev and should score at least 5.Mura got lucky because the situations in front of their door were when the scoreline was 3:0 and Arsenal's forwards were not so much focused.I think Arsenal will qualify. Arsenal\Arsenal HT\FT 1.72 bet365 GL!

Bet Won.Feel sorry for Arsenal.0;5 in both legs and they are out..