Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5

[BillyHills]

2.05 Goodwood: Get Your Bet On Bluesq.com Stewards Sprint Stakes (Class 2) (6f) All eyes will be on this race to see if the draw has any effect for the Stewards Cup later on and it’s a minefield for punters with a very tight handicap from top to bottom. I am going to follow Lutine Bell once more as I do think he can nick one of these big handicaps, he will have to be delivered on cue but certainly has the ability to do so. I reckon both of Milton Bradley’s horses can go well and narrowly prefer Jarrow to his stable mate Nasri on this occasion. Selections: 1pt EW Lutine Bell 12/1 Ladbrokes 1pt EW Jarrow 20/1 >William Hill Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/goodwood-betting-lutine-bell-can-strike-for-fortune-in-consolation-sprint-at-goodwwod

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 3.55 Goodwood: Blue Square Bet Stewards Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2)(6f) Pretty impossible as usual to be confident about anything and taking one from either side the course looks a sensible approach. Of the low numbers I’m opting for Victoire De Lyphar who is very capable when in the mood, he will be taken down to the start ahead of the others to keep him calm and could bag the far rail. Top weight Palace Moon is a sporting bet from those drawn high, he was handy from the off last time and ran out of steam and reckon if he can be ridden a little more patiently he will be thereabouts at a value price. Selections: 1pt EW Victoire De Lyphar 10/1 >Bet365 (first 5) 1pt EW Palace Moon 25/1 Stan James (first 5) Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/goodwood-betting-nicholls-to-enjoy-stewards-cup-glory-with-victoire-de-lyphar

[egg]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 2.05 Goodwood watching the sprints today there didn't seem a lot in the draw but maybe the mid to high numbers were slightly favoured. I'm going for a couple drawn high with good course and recent form. Tax Free~12/1, 1pt e/w Course 5,1,3,2 Hopefully he will get a lead and be thereabouts and the end. Oneladyowner~18/1, 1pt e/w Course 1,3,2 May come from midfield/back with a late run through the field.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 *Motivado - Goodwood 2:40* The fact this was backed off the boards 2 starts back, and the fact it is trained by Mark Prescott, and the fact the horse disappointed last time out, you can be sure they will be trying hard to get their money back and a bit more, ad he rarely leaves a gamble behind. It has won over this trip before, and travelled well for a long way at York last time out, and has been dropped from 95 to 93 for that run, so is off a very leniant mark. Luke Morris is booked which is good. Also drops from Listed company to Class 2 company tomorrow, we should see a big run. *1 Point WIN @ 13/2 VC BOG*

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 2.40 Goodwood - 2pts win Petara Bay @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes) Robert Mills' runner will do well to win this off 10-0 but he's a classy performer who goes very well over this c&d and won this event last year off 2lbs lower. It seems like he's been around for ages but is relatively lightly-raced for an 8-y-o and doesn't appear to be going downhill. Has shaped better than the results this season but has conditions in his favour now and I expect him to put in a bold bid in an attempt to retain his crown. His record here is 241 (all over this trip) and the 4th came on the back of a long break. He relishes quick ground so his effort in the Northumberland Plate can be safely put to one side (still did ok to finish midfield) and this suits much better. Caught my eye at Royal Ascot on his first run for a year over 2m6f with ground not on his side again when travelling well in the rear. He made up some good headway with about half a mile to race but couldn't find off the bridle. However, after such an absence, over a taxing trip, with ground not absolutely ideal, it was a promising effort. Should be spot on for this now. So long as the rain doesn't come the ground, trip and course will be right. Not out of it from the top of the handicap for all this is competitive and I think he's going to run a big race.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 3.15 Goodwood - 4pts win The Fugue @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes) Posted this before Royal Ascot:

3.05 Ascot - 4pts win The Fugue @ 5/2 (Bet365) I think John Gosden's filly has become a fair price now the rain has come rather but with the more sinister stuff not forecast until after the Ribblesdale, I don't think it will prove too testing and she can still come out on top. I don't think she absolutely needs quick ground but it obviously helps. However, at 5/2 I think she's not a bad bet given she's clearly the one to beat for me. I was very keen on her for the Oaks even when she only had one run under her belt - her maiden victory - and her very sound run in the Guineas after a break with the ground on the soft side and not an ideal trip through the race only enhanced her Epsom credentials. She did well not to come down early on in the race and she lost ground and momentum which seemed crucial as she only went down narrowly in the end. William Buick believes she would have won and that gives her a favourite's chance here today. She couldn't have been much more impressive at York even if she perhaps didn't beat a right lot, and the return to a flatter track won't be a concern at all. So long as heaps of rain doesn't come before the race (doesn't appear like we're going to get buckets before 4pm) then I think she'll take all the beating. She has plenty of class and a nice combination of speed and stamina and she would be a 5pt bet on yesterday's ground, but the slight doubt makes me opt for slightly lower stakes.

Ran well with conditions against her as the ground was too soft for her. Travelled nicely and looked a big threat but couldn't go with the impressive winner. I'm not too concerned with the fact William Buick sides with the other Gosden runner as he says it's the hardest decision he's had to make. As the season wears on, the 3yo weight allowance can be a big advantage and I think she may well prove too good receiving weight. She drops back in trip now and that doesn't concern me - I actually think this might suit better. A stiff 1m4f might not be ideal but proved she had plenty of speed in the Musidora and also has the sufficient stamina to finish well here. Ground in her favour and has had a bit of a break which will help as she had four races in quick succession. Should be fresh for this and has conditions to suit.

[beaker1]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 2.05 Get Your Bet on at Bluesq.com Stewards’ Sprint Stakes The market leader has not won this race since 2003 and it has paid to look further afield than the market leader with the last four winners returning at double figure odds. With the competitive looking nature of this race in mind, I think it would be foolish to get too carried away with the most fancied runners. The horse I am drawn towards is the French raider MOSCOW EIGHT. He has shown solid form in his native country over various trips, but seems to be most effective over today’s trip of 6f. It would be hard to evaluate whether he is well treated off a mark of 86 although connections must be fairly confident by sending her over. The very capable apprentice Harry Bentley takes a valuable 3lb out of the plate and the pair have a good draw in stall nine. He is set to start the race a 20/1 chance, which for me represents good each-way value in a race of this nature. The top weight Louis the Pious is another runner who seemingly holds a fighting chance at a big price. His last two runs have come on very unsuitable soft and heavy ground but enters calculations now back on a faster surface which he thrives on. He has posted solid efforts off a mark of 94, so the drop down to 92 can only help. All of his wins have come over today’s trip and under the stewardship of Graham Lee he can make the frame. Oneladyowner is somewhat of a course and distance specialist having finished in the first three home on each of his three runs at the course, winning once. Two starts ago he was beaten here by just a nose off 86, with just a 1lb rise in the weights he is handicapped to go close once more. Connections have booked William Buick for the ride and he is another lively contender. Nasri also makes the shortlist having dropped down to a handy mark. He was 4th in the Stewards’ Cup last year rated 97 and races off 88 here today. He hadn’t shown much form so far this term but put in a solid effort last time out at York, giving me the impression connections have stoked him up steadily with this race in mind. 2.40 Toyo Tires Performance Stakes (Handicap) Many of the line-up have plenty to prove but I think it is worth giving Roger Varian’s SHUBAAT another chance now back down to the trip he won over three starts ago. He can be fully excused for running down the field in the Chester Cup on soft ground, before not getting home over 2m most recently. He has had just seven starts to date and I don’t believe we have seen the best of this horse, and back over 1m6f could prove to be a dangerous opponent. Franciscan also merits respect for Luca Cumani who has won the race three times since 2004. He also can be forgiven his latest poor effort on soft ground in the Old Newton Cup. Before this he won over 1m4f at York, giving the impression he would be worth a try over this longer trip. If he is back to form and stays the distance then he will be in the mix. Roxy Flyer may also enter calculations for the Amanda Perrett team. She is a very consistent sort, which cannot be said about many of these and presuming the ground stays good this previous course winner holds each-way claims. 3.15 Markel Insurance Nassau Stakes (Group 1) Five of the last ten winners of the Nassau Stakes have gone the way off the 3yos, who receive a hefty 8lbs from their older rivals. There are only two 3yos in the field today, but it is the Oaks winner WAS who could be the one to beat. She has had just four starts in her career so far, with her Epsom win her best form to date. Her next and most recent start came in the Irish equivalent, finishing 5th, but that run was better than the bare form suggests. The soft ground along with being hampered by Shirocco Star clearly hindered her from finishing closer than 5¼ lengths behind the winner. I think this drop to 1m2f will bring out the best of the beautifully bred daughter of Galileo. Her trainer Aiden O’Brien won this race in 2007 and 2008 with Peeping Fawn and Favourable Terms, so he knows what it takes to win the race. The forecast good ground is another big plus point for me along with her age allowance and this is the filly they all have to beat. Nahrain is the highest rated horse in the race and if she is back to form can push the selection all the way. She made her reappearance over 1m but now back to 1m2f, the trip she won the Group 1 Prix De L’Opera over in France, a big run looks to be on the cards. Roger Varian’s have been running well at the meeting without winning and it would be no great surprise to see her right there in the closing stages. She finished runner-up at the Breeders Cup last season, which sets the benchmark in this field. Obviously we cannot be sure if she will rekindle this form which is why Was get the nod in terms of the first choice selection. Izzi Top currently heads the betting at 2/1, which is fair enough given she has won four consecutive Group races and a reproduction of this form would see here make the frame. I am not too sure her best form is as strong as the above selections and she may have just had one race too many, which could give the edge to her more lightly campaigned rivals. She is no doubt an excellent filly, with a victory here a distinct possibility, however I believe the other two have more improvement in them and represent better value. 3.45 Blue Square Stewards’ Cup The progressive 4yo Hoof It restored parity last season meaning 9 out of the last 10 renewals have been won by a 4yo or 5yo. Last year’s victor pulled one back for the 4yos who just trail 5-4 to the 5yos. This is such a strong trend we can discount 15 of the 28 runners with a fare amount of confidence. Given the competitive nature of the race you are always going to get the odd shock. The Stewards’ Cup has had its fair share – Guineas Hunter at 33/1 and Conquest at 40/1 – but overall it has still paid to concentrate on those at the head of the betting as 8 of the last 11 winners have come from the first five in the market. Hoof It strengthened this trend returning the 13/2 joint favourite, so it could well pay to focus on the market principals, but don’t be put off backing a less fancied runner. The five that head the market this time around are Dungannon, Victoire De Lyphar, Mac’s Power, Hawkeyethenoo and Jamesie, whom are available at around 10/1 at the time of writing. As with the totesport Mile on Friday those running from the top or the bottom of the handicap don’t fair that well, although winning off 10st last year, Hoof It bucked the trend. To be precise, horses officially rated between 95 and 102 have won 8 of the last 12 renewals. There is perfectly good reason behind that. Horses towards the top of the weights are often fully exposed and therefore find it tough to improve again in such a competitive contest whilst those towards the bottom of the weights usually aren’t quite up to this level. If you rely on the ‘magic’ 95 to 102 rated horses you must consider every runner from Oasis Dancer down to Jamesie; not forgetting the 3yo Bayleyf who is actually rated 96 but receives a 5lb age allowance. Following on a similar theme, it might be worth siding with a runner that achieved a top three finish on their most recent start just like 9 of the last 15 winners. It clearly isn’t the be all and end all but it is something to bear in mind. The race in which they run might also sway your judgement as 12 of the last 16 winners had run in the Wokingham Stakes at the Royal Meeting. To save the trouble of looking up the result, the Wokingham runners worth noting in this year’s contest are Waffle (2nd), Hawkeyethenoo (3rd), Dungannon (5th), Palace Moon (8th), Alben Star (9th), Mac’s Power (13th) and Seal Rock (15th). Finally, but certainly not least is the draw. I remember in years gone by a huge amount of debate whether the stands rail of the far rail was the place to be. If my memory serves it was the far rail that usually won but times seem to be shifting as all of the last 7 winners came from a pretty central draw. Because of the design of the course there are very few races in which the runners come down the centre of the course and it may well be that after 4 days of racing this provides the freshest strip of ground? Taking all the above in to consideration, along with my own personal thoughts, DUNGANNON, gets the slight nod for the Andrew Balding team. He posted a good effort in the Wokingham off today’s mark of 97 and is by no means handicapped out things. He also ran a solid race in defeat most recently, when beaten by 1¼ lengths, in a race in which he was first home in his group. He is clearly thriving at present, which is shown by his position in the market. He is a general 10/1 chance like many of the runners, but is as short as 9/1 in some place. At five he also represents the most successful age group within the last 10 years, however drawn 24 may not be ideal, but Hoof It was drawn 18 which does offer the selection some hope. Alben Star is another strong trends horse in the line-up. As a 4yo he ticks that box, along with being rated 97 and winning his most recent start. He also features prominently in the betting and is Co second favourite with many firms. Drawn in 22 may or not be ideal, depending on where the pace in the race lies, but he still seemingly holds every chance. He was also 9th in this year’s Wokingham which is also another positive. The slight negative maybe the fact he has shown to be most effective with cut in the ground, but with forecast rain around, conditions could turn out to be ideal. Oasis Dancer is one of the more likely outsiders in the field, fitting almost all of the trends. He represents one of the golden age generations, most notably the 5yos, who just edge out the 4yo by one victory over the last ten years. He also sits in the ideal rating band competing off 102, a mark he won off in 2010. Coming out of stall 12 he also appears to have fared well in terms of the draw, that is if my theory of being drawn central is a wise one. The slight negative is he doesn’t come here on the back of a solid run; however this can be excused due to the soft ground. The race before this he finished along way back in the Wokingham, which has previously been dubbed at the most reliable race to throw up the winner, so he will need to bounce back to form to feature. The final spot on the roster goes to Jemesie, who fits the age (4yo), rating (95) and market position (Co2f) trends. He also represents David Marnane, the trainer of the Wokingham winner Dandy Boy, so although he didn’t run in the Ascot handicap he qualifies by default on this basis. He latest run may have been poor but it can be fully excused due to the ground, so if the ground remains good, he enters calculations. 4.30 Nat West Ahead for Business EBF Maiden Stakes Mark Johnston is yet again enjoying a fantastic Glorious Goodwood with multiple winners and has another strong chance here with Steeler. This son of the first-season sire Raven’s Pass made a bright racecourse debut, going down by a head to a more experienced rival from the Tom Dascombe yard. He is likely to improve with that experience under his belt for a trainer who won this contest in 2008 with Jukebox Jury. The big concern would be drawn out wide, which has so far this week proven to be a disadvantage over 7f. Country Western is another runner I expect to be in the mix from a plum draw in stall four. He posted a solid effort on debut, beaten by only ¾ lengths in 3rd. With improvement on the cards for powerful connections, a bold bid is expected. The horse which arguably the holds the best form, thus the one to beat is IMPROVISATION. This son of Teofilo made a very impressive racecourse debut in a warm Newmarket maiden. That particular race was won by John Gosden’s Ghurair who ran so well in the Vintage Stakes behind Olympic Glory earlier this week. Mahmood Al Zarooni’s colt was only beaten by 1½ lengths, and in arguably a less competitive event, with racecourse experience under his belt, he will take a lot of beating. 5.05 Bet on Your Mobile at Bluesq.com Nursery (Handicap) DOMINATE can build on a solid effort in a much more competitive affair in which he finished 6th earlier this week. Four of the horses in front of him were rated 103, 102, 98 and 95, which is a far high standard than this race. The handicapper has given him a mark of 82 which I believe underestimates this horse’s powers. He won his maiden at Sandown in superb style and I think the step up to 6f will suit given the way he forged clear to win. The Hannon/Hughes combination has to be feared in 2yo races at Glorious Goodwood and they look to hold the aces here. Dutch Masterpiece won on debut for Gary Moore, a trainer who isn’t well known for his winning debutants. Although his win only came in a Southwell maiden, he did lead from start to finish in a dominant fashion and he has more scope for improvement than many of these in this field. Ryan Moore takes over from George Baker for his father and he ought to be fighting out the finish. Jamesbo’s Girl was claimed by Richard Fahey after winning a 6f Thirsk seller by 7 lengths before winning a Catterick claimer over 6f by the same winning margin. This certainly represents a step up in class but she does at least arrive here in fine fettle and can reward connections by making the frame. 5.40 Qipco Future Stars Apprentice Stakes (Handicap) Landaman will be a popular choice for many punters up and down the country for the final race of the festival. He won so well earlier this week and a reproduction of that performance will make him tough to beat. Michael Murphy takes over from Darren Egan, which helps offset another 2lbs with the former riding claiming 7lb. The horse is due to go up a further 3lb in the future so is technically well in, however the slight concern would be how he turns out after racing just four days previous. Stepping up to 1m1f for the first time, the Lucy Wadham-trained Tuscania can make the frame. This filly has struggled since winning on debut; however a return to form most recently bodes well. This represents one of her easiest assignments to date and holds strong each-way claims. BORUG who was once rated 93 lurks menacingly now rated just 80. William Twiston-Davies takes a valuable 5lb off, for which is worth every 1lb. He ran on well over 1m most recently at Newmarket, which suggests to me he will be right at home over this 1m1f trip. The better ground could also play to his strengths and with the extra freshness he holds over Landaman, makes him narrowly the one to beat.

[bowles10]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 3.55 Stewards Cup Goodwood 4or 5yo - 12 out of 15 8st 2lb - 9st 1lb - 11 out of 15 SP 14/1 or lower - 12 out of 15 favs 4 out of 15 (last year jt fav won) winner this season 10 out of 14 placed or better this season 14 out of 15 3 runs or more this season - 15 out of 15 Its quite significant here the last 2 stats, 3 or more runs & placed at least this season preferably with a win also, 4-5yo's are also favoured showing those sprinters still in thier early years have an advantage. A 40/1 in 2008 messed up the SP stat a little however you can go back further & see that 6 times in 26 runs of the race has a horses 20/1+ has won. Age is really key as in the same 26 years, 4&5yo's have won 21 of these and apart from 2010 had won the last 9 runnings of last 10 Oasis Dancer 9st 8lb drawn 12 Shropshire 9st 6lb drawn 21 Seal Rock 9st 4lb drawn 15 Alben Star 9st 3lb drawn 22 Jamesie 9st 1lb drawn 9 Swiss cross 9st drawn 8 Whaileyy 9st drawn 27 Elusive prince 9st drawn 2 Victoire de lphar 8st 12lb drawn 3 This is my shortlist of 9 after applying the 3 key trends. I have also put the weights and draw. Effectively i could back all 9 at the current odds and not lose as they go 10/1 the field 9 of the last 12 ran in the wokingham at Royal Ascot including the last 6 winners so worth taking a look. Of those in the wokingham from the shortlist: Alben star (9th), Seal Rock (15th), Oasis dancer (18th) Alben star is around 10/1 and the other 2 are 25/1 plus Bets lets go with ALBEN STAR 12/1 >Hills 5pts ew

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 I quite fancy Louis The Pious at 22/1 in the 2.05 Goodwood. Has been racing over further of late and on ground too soft by the looks of it, best effort this year was on quick ground at Chester. Has also raced prominently over 7f/8f which he's very much unproven over, looks to me that he doesnt get that far especially on soft ground. Could find 6f at Goodwood too sharp but at least he's back down to 6f where all his best form has come. Down a couple of pounds and i think being drawn low will be the place to be. Rail moved out over that side so fresh ground over that side, trainers seemed to favour it in the stalls draw and the majority of the field ran over that side last year. Also fancy Seeking Magic over this sharp 6f in a big field which should help him settle, at 25/1 with a variety of firms he's also worth a bet imo.

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 Newmarket 4.05pm Tazahum has a few pieces of decent form but is out of sorts and needs to bounce back to form. At even mon ey I'd rather take an in form horse and despite a penalty I expect Dance and Dance to go well here. It was 7-2 moments ago and is now 3's with PP, they are the only one pricing up the race at this time. Full preview: http://www.punterslounge.com/newmarket-betting-dance-and-dance-can-turn-over-the-short-priced-and-out-of-form-tazahum

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 Goodwood 3.15pm I really like Izzi Top and it will run a big race but Nahrain could be some value and is proven as a top class performer that probably needed a run last time out. I am not sure about The Fugue and Was and feel Timepiece is overrated despit being a Gp 1 winner. Race Preview: http://www.punterslounge.com/goodwood-betting-a-race-fit-nahrain-can-deny-izzi-top-another-group-1-victory

[BKI Punter]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 3:15 Goodwood Lay Izzi Top @ 2.9 or lower The Fugue 2pt win - 4/1 (Boyle) Was 2pt win - 13/2 (Skybet) Another race in which I think the favourites are vulnerable. Izzi Top has been winning well over this trip but this presents a completely different challenge. Weight has to be given to these three year olds and it could be the deciding factor. The Fugue has been crying out for a drop back to this trip, travelled like the best horse lto but couldn't pull away and just held on for second. She was all over the third turning in but couldn't put any daylight between them as she ran out of gas. Buick has chosen Izzi Top but that doesn't worry me. Was won the Oaks and was disappointing in the Irish Oaks, but she had no run whatsoever at the worst time and deserves another chance. She travelled well and for a high-class, unexposed filly, 13/2 looks more than fair. 3:20 Doncaster Jimmy Styles 2pt win - 9/2 This admirable 8yo has only one trip and that's six furlongs on good ground. He gets that here and with sufficient enough question marks over other competitors, he looks the best bet. He was outclassed in the Diamond Jubilee but before than ran right up to form in behind the improved Tiddliwinks and the July Cup winner and runner-up (Mayson and The Cheka). I think he should be fav here.

[nickf88]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 2:00 Goodwood - El Viento - 0.5 pts EW (33/1, Ladbrokes) Quite fancy this horse to show some improvement today despite some dreadful recent form and the fact this horse can act on a variety of grounds hopefully will stand it in good stead tomorrow depending on the weather. Has gone close it's only try at this course albeit at over 7 furlongs and not today's 6 but still promising due to some horses not acting at Goodwood. Eddie Ahern looks a decent jockey booking for Fahey and hopefully the blinkers can eke out a bit of improvement. 2:40 Goodwood - Solar Sky - 0.5 pts EW (20/1, Hills) Handicap debut for this horse, and finds itself competing off near top weight but could be classy enough to defy it in what looks a very competitive race. Although has never won over the distance, it has been fairly competitive in it's two attempts over the trip finishing 4 lengths off the winner both attempts. They were listed races however, and this is a handicap so hopefully this drop in class can make this horse more competitive. Cecil has had a great week at the festival and although Queally rides his other horse in the race, Eddie Ahern takes the ride which isn't a negative for me. Hopefully this horse can spring an EW surprise at least. 3:55 Goodwood - Swiss Cross - 0.5 pts EW (33/1, Paddy Power) Paying 5 places tomorrow for this race so hopefully this horse can go well from a decent draw in an ultra competitive race. Buick booked which looks a big positive and this horse seems to suit the downhill tracks so Goodwood's track should suit. Saw an interview with Phil McEntee on ATR a few weeks ago saying he felt this horse was his best horse in training and was hoping this horse could make a mark at one of the big sprints this year and has finished 2nd twice at Epsom this year. Hoping for a big run from this horse tomorrow and at the price and the EW terms with PP it's definitely a good EW bet for me.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 2.20 Newmarket - 2pts win Tidentime @ 16/1 (PP) Mick Channon's horse is one I've been keeping an eye on for when he has his conditions and finally he appears to get them today. Was useful at 2 and proved he'd trained on in two starts back in the spring which led me to back him at Haydock in late May. That was over a mile on quick ground and he travelled really nicely and loomed up on the inside appearing a big threat a couple of furlongs out. He didn't quite find as much as I'd hoped and it proved to me that he wants 7f ultimately in my opinion. He also seems to require a quick surface as his best efforts have easily come on decent ground and that holds a valid excuse for two disappointing efforts the last twice on good to soft. It is a risk as he probably could have shown a little more but he's edging back down the handicap and he drops into 0-90 company for the first time in his career. The form of the Haydock race won by Gabrial looks solid so a return to that sort of performance should see him go close here over 7f on good to firm. This is the easiest race he's encountered for a while and is worth a chance at a decent price. Martin Harley steps back on board and he shouldn't be 10pts bigger in the betting than Frog Hollow in my eyes. My selection was 3/4l behind that one at Haydock but gets a 4lb swing today and was also ahead of it at Ascot. Fingers crossed he can bounce back under favourable conditions.

[nickf88]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 5:15 - Newmarket - We Have A Dream - 0.25 pts EW (33/1, Paddy Power) A very competitive race for this horse but I'm certain it will hose up at some point and while it may not be today, I'm not willing to let it go (small stakes bet) on the small chance it may do so today. Won and placed off much higher marks last season, and whilst it's a 7 year old and may not have the scope to improve, I'm sure it can act off a higher mark than it's current 79. A front running horse so hopefully may hang for a place at least tomorrow, but regardless of the result it will stay in my alerts as I'm sure it has another win in it somewhere down the line.

[jayalexander]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 3:15 Goodwood - Was This will be the only runner Aiden O'Brien sends to Goodwood and I feel that Was is a big price considering her achievements. Of the field she is the biggest UK earner and there should be plenty more improvement left in the filly yet as the 3yo has only had four runs. Along with The Fugue she has a handy 9lb weight for age deduction that could mean the difference between her overcoming some of her older counterparts. Gallileo's progeny have performed marginally better than Izzi Top's stallion, Pivotal, at the July course over the past year. 6/1 bet365 (BOG)

[jayalexander]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 Oh, and if you place your bet through the RP mobile app (uses william hill) on the 3:15, you get your stake back as a free bet if it finishes 2nd to Izzi Top :ok

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 2.50 Doncaster WILLBEME 4pts win @ 7/1 bog (Bet365 and William Hill) Very lightly raced 4yo filly trained by Neville Bycroft who ran just 3 times: 10th of 11 on his debut in 2010, won a maiden over 7f (good to firm) at Redcar 14 months ago and made a very pleasing comeback 8 days ago when 3rd of 17 over 6f at Thirsk (good to firm) just 1L behind the winner Meandmyshadow (my BBOTD that day) who is again her main rival in this race. Willbeme should come on a lot from that reappearance and is 3lb better off with Meandmyshadow and just 1lb higher than her previous mark (61 from 60). Last time out she was standing out in the parade ring and ran very well not only because she finished 3rd of 17, very close to the winner but because she did it racing on the opposite side of the track compared to the first two and was well clear of the group that ran close to the stand's rail (more than 2.25L ahead of the second on her group and the only runner in the first 5 to have run on that side of the track). She should finally be able to build on that effort and on her favourite good to firm ground (she doesn't like it soft) she has a very big chance off 61 even if the draw is a bit of a concern again this time. Her jockey is Jean-Pierre Guillambert who rode two winners from his last 8 rides in the last fortnight and has a very good record here at Doncaster with 7 winners from 32 rides (22%) in 3yo+ races during the last 5 years.

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 4.00 Galway BUBBLY BELLINI 3pts win @ 7/1 bog (Paddy Power) 5yo who suddenly started a brand new career this summer winning 4 of the last 6 and went up 36lb for that. The Adrian McGuinness-trained gelding won in very good style last time out at the Curragh in a big handicap (42k to the winner) off 81 racing over 5f (soft) and imho he's got a very good chance even off today's mark of 86 because I can see still more to come from him finally upped in trip (won already over 7f and did it in impressive style) and he will surely love the testing ground and the uphill finish of today's track.

[Bruce_Savage]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 Writing off Goodwood as a £10,000 loss and have just sold some shares in KEA Petrolium to cover the damage but back to normal daily business here. 205 / GOODWOOD Having endured the worst festival in living memory I’m inclined to find a way out of this ditch today and I believe the first race holds a few chances that are worth taking on especially bottom weight Jarrow who put up a Listed/Group 3 speed rating on perfect good ground recorded over a stiff 5f which may level any doubts over 6f today. Looking elsewhere there are two horses franking Street Power’s Ascot win in Poole Harbour & Baby Strange who should be there or there abouts and the unfortunately named Jedward for Richard Fahey has an excellent record over in Ireland in these sort of race’s but the ground may need to be on the softer side. Mike Murphy’s runner Lutine Bell was held up off a slow pace last time out but earlier on this season he made a pleasing debut behind Listed/Group 3 performer Palace Moon staying on strongly and they’ve been careful not to blow his mark with his latest run probably used to keep him ticking over for a race like this. Willie Musson’s Novellen Lad has been touted to land one of these races for some time now as he’s the sort of horse who has all the ability to do and I’m under no illusions that today could see a 10lbs improvement on recent form. 220 / NEWMARKET Looking at this race I’m interested in Brian Meehan’s Mississippi who has attempted to race up with the pace at Ascot & Doncaster in his last two runs which were mammoth tasks for a horse having 4 runs to his name but performed admirably. There’s since been a slight relief of 4lbs in the weights with doubts over him getting home over the mile he’s stepping back to 7f here where his style of racing is more likely to pay off and we know he can accelerate from a handy position with the evidence being his Maiden win – looks overpriced. 240 / GOODWOOD Interesting little race here with many coming in off inconsistent & patchy form but the one that’s caught my eye is Sir Mark Prescott’s Motivado who scythed down his field cutting through the pack at York before weakening unimpressively although that race was run in a crawl so there are extreme positives to take especially given the likely hood of a searching gallop here today. 255 / NEWMARKET Intriguing Newmarket Nursery headed by top weight The Gold Cheongam who was a ready winner here 8 days ago but she’s short enough, there looks to be a nice prospect lurking down the bottom of the weights firstly in Rio’s Pearl for Ralph Beckett who improved markedly for the step up to 7f on good ground at Doncaster travelling on the bridle looking the winner right up until the finish line and if she’s not a flat track horse then the 10/1 is value here. The second horse to mention is Marco Botti’s Testamatta who has already had two runs here when held up towards the rear before racing prominently at Doncaster as she made an early move for home before being pipped over the 7f and everything here points to a Nursery plot running the wrong tactics at the wrong courses. 325 / NEWMARKET Having felt hard done by after backing Odin last time out I think that he’s worth another shot here at today given that he needs a strong pace I can’t imagine the Lyssio or Ginger Jack connections settling towards the rear with both horses in hot form epitomised by chasing Encke through fast fractions at Sandown recently. With the ground looking likely to be on the firm side of good this will increase David Elsworth’s horse’s chances today as will the 10f which should see him finishing strongly. 335 / THIRSK Crown Counsel made all the running at Windsor a few starts ago under a clever ride from Joe Fanning and may find competition against the old guard an easier test than the exploits he faced at Goodwood. The other horse to mention is Kyllachy Star who showed exceptional turn of foot at Newmarket last time out and with fellow hold up horse in that race Mabait showing up well in the Goodwood Mile there must be hope for Fahey’s horse who is beginning to slide down to a winnable mark. 355 / GOODWOOD A lovely strong heritable most likely memorable Stewards Cup sprint with many boarding the Group/Handicap divide and many horses’ masters of their trade in these type of races. The second bottom weight horse for David Barron Elusive Prince is one I’ve already backed ante-post at 33/1 for big money given the time posted at Chester last time out with the runner up franking the form. One horse that has lost his way is Lu Rei who put up a Group 2/3 time up at Epsom on Derby day whilst admittedly a few £’s have gone a miss it wouldn’t surprise me to see him come up trumps today for minor honours at least as he’s got the ability too. The master GingerTipster has prompted me to be wary about Oasis Dream but I do believe he hasn’t been showing the quality that the horse genuinely possess and whilst this may not be a targeted race his ability to see out 7/8f in strong run races could prove vital. 415 / THIRSK Course & Distance winner Lucky Numbers was slow away in a moderately run sprint on the Knavesmire last week but finds himself off a lenient mark prompting David O’Meara to try out the first time eye shields for that extra boost to a lazy who that is more than likely going to be picking up strongly at the finish here. 435 / DONCASTER John Gosden’s 3yo Gelding Ex Oriente may hold a better chance than the morning market suggests given the horse efforts here at Doncaster on Lincoln meeting when he made the pace he wasn’t disgraced beaten just the 3l with some solid rivals in behind. The yard have recently tried headgear in the form of blinkers which hasn’t brought about an improvement in form but the horse is honest and with the new hold up tactics combined with the removal of blinkers he should be there at the finish. 440 / NEWMARKET Not the best of races in truth while it may be worth keeping the faith with John Dunlop’s Knightly Escapade here who finds himself still on a light mark off 79 even though he was well beaten off a slow pace at Sandown as 11/4f last time out he acts well on the track and may have been campaigned over a little too far but most importantly I expect Arizona John & Braveheart Move to set a sound pace like that have previously for Number Theory at Haydock but this time bring in some of the second half stayers this season. 515 / NEWMARKET Dilemma, dilemma, dilemma! - But why? Well it has something to do with Street Power putting up at Group 2/1 speed rating at Ascot last time out but hold your horses that’s not a reflection on the class of the horse but we know in sprints the transparency from Group & Handicap is impartial which means that you don’t necessarily have to be a Group class animal to run such times due to the nature of the beast. Now what do we do here as the Handicapper’s taken note in rising him 7lbs , watching the video the horse looks completely different to the Street Power we know in recent years but he did have a spell on the All Weather racking up fast times then proceeded in having a baron spell through injuries and loss of form. Is the power back? Can we expect a late charge through the Handicaps ala Ayr Gold Cup en route to L’Abbaye? Who knows but I will be taking the chance on him backing up his Ascot victory as the time’s too good to pass. £50 ew > Jarrow @ 16/1 £50 ew > Novellen Lad @ 25/1 £100 ew > Mississippi @ 16/1 £50 ew > Testamatta @ 16/1 £50 ew > Kyllachy Star @ 10/1 £100 ew > Rio’s Pearl @ 10/1 £50 ew > Lucky Numbers @ 8/1 £50 ew > Crown Counsel @ 20/1 £100 ew > Odin @ 12/1 £250 win > Knightly Escapade @ 9/2 £250 ew > Street Power @ 12/1 £50 ew > Motivado @ 10/1 £150 win > Ex Oriente @ 9/2 £100 ew> Lu Rei @ 25/1 £250 EW > Elusive Prince @ 33/1 £50 ew > Oasis Dancer @ 40/1 £1 Any order Tricast (Lutine Bell, Jedward, Baby Strange, Poole Harbouer & Novellen Lad) £1 Any order Tricast (Oasis Dancer, Lu Rei, Elusive Prince, Waffle, Lexi’s Boy) £10 Each Way Doubles (Elusive Prince, Street Power, Knightly Escapde & Ex Oriente) £10 Each Way Doubles (Jarrow, Lu Rei, Mississippi & Odin) £10 Each Way Doubles (Novellen Lad, Lucky Numbers, Rio’s Pearl & Motivado) £10 Each Way Accumlator (Novellen Lad, Lucky Numbers, Rio’s Pearl & Motivado) £10 Each Way Accumlator (Jarrow, Lu Rei, Mississippi & Odin) £10 Each Way Accumlator (Elusive Prince, Street Power, Knightly Escapde & Ex Oriente)

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 Brucey Savage from TRF, the most confident/arrogant man alive, doubt that will go down to well over here pal, but good luck all the same.

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 14.15 Doncaster: Annie Besant @ 50/1 EW Paddy Power Still a maiden after three start with modest looking form at best best but the filly caught my eye at Yarmouth lto when travelling well for a long time but found a bit short of room. The jockey tried to switch to the outside when Annie Besant was badly hampered eventually and lost completely her rhythm. Race was over then. Don't know if she would have won without this incident but she would have gone close I assume. Today another chance and it might be the case the she'll do better in Handicap company but the step to 7f looks very much in her favour and also the booking of Kirsty Milczarek is interesting as she has a 28% strikerate this year with trainer DC Griffiths. 15.25 Newmarket: Ginger Jack @ 7/1 StanJames This looks a two-horse-race for me between Ginger Jack and Sheikhzayedroad, though the first named is more than double the price of the Spencer ridden horse. Ginger Jack didn't win over 10f yet but the fast ground should help him today and he has a major form to offer with his recent 2nd place to Encke at Sandown. Encke went on to finish 3rd in a Group 3 at Goodwood this week and Fattsota who finished 4th in the Sandown race won a strong class 2 Handicap at Ascot subsequently. Ginger Jack couldn't quite live up to this form at York lto but this race came maybe a bit too soon just eight days after his heroic Sandown performance. Compared to his best form he looks still well handicapped of his current mark off 84 as he won off 87 at Musselburgh in 2010. 16.00 Doncaster: Tinshu @ 6/1 Coral Tinshu ran a mighty race at Ascot lto where it was a little wonder that he finished 3rd in the end. He travelled like a dream through the race but was badly hampered and a clear run denied. There was simply no room for him and it was a pretty messy race overall. When he finally found some daylight he finished like a train. so it's fair to assume that he's well in form and should be in here today with a big shout. I'm kind of surprised about his price because I thought he was a massive eye-catcher and I feared everyone may have seen it. But that is apparently not the case because 6/1 is too big on my tissue in a race that lacks obvious chances apart of Tinshu in my mind. He never won of that sort of turf mark yet but ground is fine and he showed already over the winter that he can improve a lot when he won a couple of races and was only improving. He even took a Listed race at Lingfield. so there might be still a bit more to come on turf.

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 WANNABE KING (15:35) has the plum draw in stall 1 and hopefully that’ll encourage connections to decide to sit prominently with this runner, as that’s what he really needs to be seen at his best. Fast ground is also preferable and he gets that for the first time this season and after falling to a very good mark, it won’t be a surprise to see a big effort. A winner for David Lanigan last year off 7lbs higher, he never really got his conditions subsequently and also found life tough off his revised rating. His efforts in 2012 for this stable haven’t been all doom and gloom, the first came in a Conditions event. It was over the wrong ground, the wrong trip and it was his seasonal reappearance and in my view, he shaped really well. That was quite a good field looking at it with the benefit of hindsight and it showed that there was plenty of ability still in the locker. His last start, when running in the Thirsk Hunt Cup should be completely written off. He was held-up, which he doesn’t like, met traffic problems, wasn’t given a hard time and he was probably running on ground too soft for him to be fully effective anyway. He’s fallen another 2lbs since then and although the removal of headgear might look like a negative, it could well spark him into life again given that he’s always run well when they’ve changed his headgear around. Its removal could well have the same effect. A competitive race but good prize money at stake and we’ll know our fate within the first 100yds given how he’s ridden. If he’s allowed to sit prominently, he has every chance. If he’s held-up, he has no chance. For this reason, he’s only a minimum stake selection. The 90 day break shouldn’t be any concern either given he’s won in the past off much longer absences. 15:35 Thirsk – Wannabe King; 1pt @ 18/1 Bet365, William Hill (bog)

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 15.15 Goodwood: Clinical @ EW 33/1 Bet365 I hope the field size of eight runners remains as then I like to have a small each-way bet on Clinical who is a filly I really like. She has a bit to find in this grade, particularly after her recent poor run at Ascot. But I'll ignore that form and forgive her that performance because she was so impressive in a Group 3 at Epsom before that, so I assume she just had an off day at Ascot. Clinical won now a couple of Listed races and the mentioned Group 3 but has not won in higher grade yet. It looks much asked to win this here today indeed, but I think she can run a good race from a prominent position and should have at least place claims. She looks overpriced for me anyway because she still can improve. She raced only once over 10f and her pedigree is pointing out that 10f should be perfectly fine for her. She is a lovely and honest filly and hopefully run to her best today. That might be not good enough in the end but at 33/1 she's worth a try I think.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5

*Motivado - Goodwood 2:40* The fact this was backed off the boards 2 starts back, and the fact it is trained by Mark Prescott, and the fact the horse disappointed last time out, you can be sure they will be trying hard to get their money back and a bit more, ad he rarely leaves a gamble behind. It has won over this trip before, and travelled well for a long way at York last time out, and has been dropped from 95 to 93 for that run, so is off a very leniant mark. Luke Morris is booked which is good. Also drops from Listed company to Class 2 company tomorrow, we should see a big run. *1 Point WIN @ 13/2 VC BOG*

What a performance. Delighted! :clap

[Bruce_Savage]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5

240 / GOODWOOD Interesting little race here with many coming in off inconsistent & patchy form but the one that’s caught my eye is Sir Mark Prescott’s Motivado who scythed down his field cutting through the pack at York before weakening unimpressively although that race was run in a crawl so there are extreme positives to take especially given the likely hood of a searching gallop here today.

Fantastic, well done Sir Mark Prescott.

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5

3.15 Goodwood - 4pts win The Fugue @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes) Posted this before Royal Ascot: Ran well with conditions against her as the ground was too soft for her. Travelled nicely and looked a big threat but couldn't go with the impressive winner. I'm not too concerned with the fact William Buick sides with the other Gosden runner as he says it's the hardest decision he's had to make. As the season wears on, the 3yo weight allowance can be a big advantage and I think she may well prove too good receiving weight. She drops back in trip now and that doesn't concern me - I actually think this might suit better. A stiff 1m4f might not be ideal but proved she had plenty of speed in the Musidora and also has the sufficient stamina to finish well here. Ground in her favour and has had a bit of a break which will help as she had four races in quick succession. Should be fresh for this and has conditions to suit.

It owed you that, hell of a ride by Hughes there and great win for the horse. It was one of those I was unsure of before the season and a few mentioned it in the RP as a 10 to follow horse. Group 1 winner now. Nahrain was my choice, awful but the drift was significant too, went from 9-2 to 13-2 before the off.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 Brilliant ride from Hughesy on The Fugue there... Although he did have me a little worried at one point. She really is top class.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5

Fantastic' date=' well done Sir Mark Prescott.[/quote'] It is a shame that when you posted, Motivado was 5/1, not 10/1. As a matter of fact, it has not been 10/1 since yesterday evening.

[Bruce_Savage]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5

It is a shame that when you posted' date=' Motivado was 5/1, not 10/1. As a matter of fact, it has not been 10/1 since yesterday evening.[/quote'] I got on last night as I was writing up the selections unless you thought I typed all that within a couple of minutes? Thanks.