Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July

[BillyHills]

First of three sprint handicaps for Saturday; 2.55 Ascot: Betfred Mobile Sports Handicap (Class 2) (5f) Impossible puzzle with many of the twenty runners in with a chance but it may just pay to stay with those on the far side or in the middle. You cant ignore how well in Fratellino is compared to last week so has to go on the short list while Zero Money looks to be about to strike for Roger Charlton after his good come back run at Windsor behind an improving sort. Selections: 1pt Zero Money 9/1 >Betvictor 1pt Fratellino 12/1 >Bet365 Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/ascot-betting-charlton-s-zero-money-looks-ready-to-strike-in-sprint-at-ascot

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July Couldnt agree with you more on Zero Money, but I have to say my form has been awful these last two weeks so that will mean that he will probably finish a tailed off last! :sad

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July 3.45 York: Skybet Dash Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (6f) As usual for a York sprint there are many in with a squeak, it’s a fair track and they will probably come down the middle but I do like a couple with high numbers and think there is enough pace over there to give them a decent tow into the race. Kaldoun Kingdom and Farlow are my two main hopes and I reckon Fast Shot could be involved in the places from another high draw. Selections: 1pt Kaldoun Kingdom 12/1 Stan James 1pt Farlow 14/1 >Bet365 Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/york-betting-kaldoun-kingdom-to-regain-winning-thread-at-favourite-track

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July havent got the time to pass all these through computer tonight so had to revert to trends 2.35 york last 4 winners carried 9-4 or more all had had 5 or more runs that season all were drawn 11 or lower apply those trends and you are left with 1 horse .......IMPERIAL DJAY good enough for me 5pts e.w imperial djay 22/1 ladbrokes(party time if this wins)

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July 3.45 york 8/8 distance winner 7/8 won from single figure stall 7/8 were 8st 12 or higher 7/8 were 9/1 or less 7/8 had previously ran at york ....3 winning shortlisted it leaves klynch and head space who are the only 2 horses left that are 14/1 or less presently ........swiss cross and tax free also fit trends so money would warrant attention ......klynch also won at york so fits trends near perfect especially if money for him tomorrow sees him go off around 9/1 head space 2pts win 10/1 bet365 klynch 2pts win 14/1 paddy power

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July just realised in both my above posts its weird that all the horses are trained by ruth carr ? is she mounting an all out assault on york tomorrow ? add 2x5pts doubles to list head space and imperial djay klynch and imperial djay just in case at 132/1 and 170/1 will be interesting bet if imperial djay wins the 2.35

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July 2:20 Ascot: Address Unknown 1pt win 12/1 Paddy Power Address Unknown for Dr Marwan Koukash catches the eye. While Address Unknown has not set the world alight so far since his switch from Ireland to Ian Williams, there is a sense that today could be day. Particularly with the going in his favour for the first time in several runs. Address Unknown has won off considerably higher marks in Ireland and while he does need to recapture that old form, he will get plenty of assistance from the saddle from Fran Berry. 2:35 York: Dimension 1pt win 9/2 Bet365 & Quick Wit 1pt win 14/1 Paddy Power Royal Ascot form tends to stand up through the remainder of the season and Dimension ran well in defeat in the Royal Hunt Cup, and the third Don't Call Me and fourth Field of Dream have won since. Dimension did not have a great draw at the Royal meeting and has been unlucky here, yet the drop back in trip may well help and a big run is anticipated. Quick Wit looks an interesting runner dropping back in trip to seven furlongs. Although he has won over further, Quick Wit is by top sprinter Oasis Dream which may mean seven furlongs is his optimum trip and there could be more to come from this lightly raced sort. Quick Wit's chance will be enhanced by the form of Saeed Bin Suroor and Frankie Dettori in the plate. 2:50 Ascot: Fratellino 1pt win 14/1 Coral & Bosun Breeze 1pt win 10/1 Paddy Power It usually pays to go with a sprinter in form and Fratellino ran really well here last week. A reproduction of that run will see him go very close. Darren Egan a very capable apprentice takes off a handy five pounds. The firmer surface won't be a problem, and it might just be that the draw has been a little kinder to Fratellino this week. Bosun Breeze is another sprinter at the top of his game and in such rude health looks worth following. He often front runs and his rivals won't want to see him get too far in front or despite going up in the weights he may still take some pulling back. 4:00 Newmarket: Rex Imperator 1pt win 4/1 Bet Victor Rex Imperator looks a highly progressive sort. He won well last time out at Windsor and that form has been franked by the second Shropshire going in next time. Rex Imperator is six pounds higher here, however based on that Windsor run he might be up to Listed or possibly Group races in the future and could take this on the way to better things.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July *Desert Law - Ascot 2:55* Was well beat in the Wokingham last time out, but that was over 6f, and much prefers 5f, and has that again tomorrow. Two starts back was a very gallant 2nd of 20 in the Epsom Dash behind Stone Of Folca, a repeat of that would see it hard to beat here. The booking of Richard Hughes really catches the eye, his first time on the horse, and no better master in the saddle for a patent waiting ride. Interestingly it is also the first time Hughes has ever ridden for Balding at Ascot. Should go well in a big field. *0.5 Points e/w @ 10/1 VC BOG*

[mattmcandrew]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July I am going to attempt to crack Newcastle's 3.05. The favourite is King of Eden - a horse seeking a hat-trick after two impressive displays at Chester and Ayr. He has a good strike rate, but he's been upped 8lbs for his latest effort and that puts him on a career high mark which should be very difficult to defy. I am readily opposing him in favour of Polish World who looked the part when beating subsequent revelation Anderiego and King of Eden over C&D four races ago. He beat King of Eden by five lengths that day and was receiving only 1lb that day, whereas in this race he receives 4lbs. Conditions have been very much against Polish World since that race and back on firm ground he looks the one to beat at a reasonable price (12/1 with Ladbrokes), and I would suggest taking that price while you can as it should go down by around three or four points before the off. Polish World @ 12/1 with Ladbrokes

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July 4.00 Newmarket: Boylesports.com Mobile Betting Handicap (Class 2) (6f) Although it looks pretty competitive at first glance it really is between the top two in the market for me and I much prefer the proven form of Rex Imperator over the promise of more to offer with Duke Of Firenze. As an each way alternative I like Balty Boys for the Hills team, he looks much better treated here than he has in ages. Selections: 3pts Rex Imperator 7/2 >William Hill 1pt EW Balty Boys 11/1 Stan James Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/newmarket-betting-charlton-looks-to-have-another-decent-sprinter-in-rex-imperator

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July « 2:55 » Ascot SAT 28 JUL 2012 BETFRED MOBILE SPORTS HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo+) Winner £62,250 Firm 5f Number of runners: 20 BOSUN BREESE 4pts win @ 11/1 bog (Paddy Power and Victor Chandler) One of the feature races of the day. A high quality field for this sprint handicap with plenty of horses in with a solid chance but I'm more than happy to support the one who has been showing the best improvements of them all this season and made it 4 wins from 5 starts in 2012 (a close second on his second out) last time out when bolted up at Ayr (always over 5f on ground from good to soft to good to firm) winning a class 3 handicap off a mark of 86 with today's jockey Graham Gibbons on board. The David Barron-trained 7yo has taken a new lease of life at the age of 7 and within a month has gone up from a rating of 68 to today's 93 improving race after race. His latest effort has been the best ever as Bosun Breese recorded a TS of 94 and a RPR of 98 beating Hazelrigg by 1.25L eased down in the last 50 yards. Hazelrigg has won a class 2 handicap at York last time out off a 1lb higher mark and is now rated 92 (5lb higher than when soundly beaten by Bosun Breese who is rated just 1lb higher at the moment). Jack Dexter finished third that day at Ayr 1.5L behind Bosun Breese and he finished 1.5L behind Taajub on his last start which was a quality and rich sprint handicap over today's C&D with plenty of today's runners involved: the winner Taajub, the 3rd Fratellino and the unlucky Barnet Fair who had unseated his rider and ran loose before that race and still finished 6th with a strong finish (current market leader of today's race). On a line through Jack Dexter Bosun Breese has to have a big shout here and once again I see in him still room for improvements while most of today's rivals, even the ones in very good form like Taajub for example, seem to me more limited. Barnet Fair is a big threat because it's a lightly raced 4yo and has been showing a bit of class more than once to believe he can take his part of the cake in this sphere (big sprint handicaps) but he's won just once in 14 starts on turf (off an 8lb lower mark June 2011 at Musselburgh racing only against 3yos) and was never better than 4th in the other 13 starts so has a lot to prove to be considered favourite of this race.

[FedericoBTH]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July LINGFIELD 8.30 Jordaura - 1pt Win 11/2 (>PaddyPower) BOG A C+D winner lto, now with a 65 OR but still manageable and with a poor field to compete with. Three career wins on the AW and she's probably the most shaped horse of the starters. Gay Kelleway has a good record at the track with 52 winners and the booking of Steve Donohoe is pretty interesting. SALISBURY 8.45 Serene Oasis - 1pt Win 4/1 (>Bet365) BOG Serene Oasis recent record is very impressive with a double win (and a place in between) over 7f. She seems to handle well every type of ground having collected wins and positive performances from soft to good to firm. Main concern today will be the 5lb raise, which will set her higher career mark at 75, and the jockey, otherwise I love Mick Channon horses and he's doing very good lately with 0.5 winners per day last two weeks. Competitive race this one but she has a chance. ----- FLAT SEASON Bets: 38 Wins: 9 SR: 23.68% P/L: +£6.58 Yield: +17.32%

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July York 3.10pm Jet Away should show its true form on fast ground and back over 10f after flopping over 12f on soft ground at Ponty not so long ago. Ransom Note was 2nd in this race last year and has probably been primed for this race and has avoided the recent soft ground. Selections: 1pt WIN – Jet Away 13-2 Betfred (BOG) 1pt WIN – Ransom Note 12-1 William Hill (BOG) Full race preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/york-betting-jet-away-likely-to-run-to-form-on-fast-ground-in-skybet-stakes

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July Ascot 3.55pm The race looks to be between Robin Hoods Bay and John Biscuit to me and I prefer the latter. Good winner last time out, still improving and can follow up this afternoon from a 6lb higher mark. A forecast between the two named could give us a decent return if landed. Selections: 2pts WIN – John Biscuit 9-2 Bet365 (BOG) Reverse Forecast – John Biscuit/Robin Hoods Bay Full race preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/ascot-betting-john-biscuit-to-follow-up-with-another-handicap-win

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July CITRUS STAR (14:35) is an old favourite of mine but doesn’t win as often as he should, as I have him down as an extremely talented performer on his day, capable of performances in the region of a mark of 105. He hasn’t had conditions to suit very often this season and is still on a very workable rating and shouldn’t be too far away. A very useful juvenile (peak rating of 99), he won a Goodwood handicap off that same mark as a 3yo back in 2010. Subsequently he disappointed, slowly falling down the weights after running in extremely tough big-field handicaps. It wasn’t until September last year that he started to find his level again, being unlucky off a rating of 94 at Doncaster before scoring impressively on all-weather debut not long after. That was off a 1lb lower mark than he races today, so even on last year’s form he’s still pretty much handicapped to win a race like this. Citrus Star’s 2012 performances have been held-up by the soft ground, his two runs on testing surfaces should be completely discarded and it’s his in-between at Goodwood on better ground that makes him of interest. He finished 3^rd, no match for the well-handicapped winner but he didn’t get a clear passage, costing him 2^nd and been slightly keen early on wouldn’t have helped him either. Today’s quick ground at York will obviously suit and the faster the better for Citrus Star, so these hot conditions bode well. He’s never run at York and his trainer doesn’t make a visit here too often, having a record of 1/5. George Baker gets the ride for the first time in a little while and this pairing get along well, Baker being on board for the aforementioned Goodwood success in 2010 and he’s had plenty of experience of this tricky customer, which is an obvious plus. Baker’s record for the Chris Wall yard is very strong, having a 20% strike-rate in the past five seasons (41/209). Hopefully Citrus Star isn’t just being brought to be a travelling companion of Premio Loco and although the lack of a confirmed front-runner could be a worry, there are plenty of runners here today and it should mean they go an adequate pace. I don’t think he should be any higher than 7/1 so at the current prices, he’s a definite bet. White Frost could be a danger if returning to his best form. EAGLE ROCK (16:50) is yet to run in a handicap on ground this quick and that has to be a slight doubt to his chances today, but having looked at his action and pedigree I can see no reason why he wouldn’t handle the quicker surface and given that 1m4f has looked woefully inadequate on his past two starts around York, the step up in trip looks needed and he could be 10-15lbs well-in if seeing out the trip. That’s a big “if” but his previous two efforts on the Knavesmire have been extremely promising. Both over 1m4f but on differing surfaces, Eagle Rock ran pretty much the same sort of race. Held-up, tapped for speed when asked for his effort then staying on really nicely. 1m4f just looks on the sharp side now and it’s no surprise that he needs further now anyway, having shown some real promise as a juvenile hurdler (ran a massive race at Aintree before tiring late on). Two miles around York should be within reach on the evidence of those two York performances and although facing some seasoned staying campaigners, Eagle Rock has often looked better than a horse rated 79. It’s entirely plausible that this trip will help unlock that further improvement. As previously mentioned, fast ground was the main concern but he’s related to winners on very fast ground on his dam side, and his action is hardly one of a horse that needs soft ground, so I’m hoping that he takes to the fast turf with aplomb. Eagle Rock is currently favourite but I can see no reason why he’s not a couple of points shorter than he is and is worthy of the minimum stakes. I do believe he’s well-handicapped and by quite a way too, but the slight doubts about the fast ground, the trip and this being such a tough race keep me from getting heavily involved. Bets 14:35 York – Citrus Star; 2pts @ 9/1 Bet365, BetVictor (bog) 16:50 York – Eagle Rock; 1pt @ 13/2 Betfred (bog)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July 2.05 York - 2pts win Kunooz @ 20/1 (Bet365) Mahmood Al-Zarooni's filly seems a bit of a forgotten horse having put in a disappointing performance first time up this season. If you can excuse her that effort then she must have a pretty good chance on the form of her two runs last year. She's yet to run in a handicap but if she bounces back to last season's form then I think she's fairly treated off a mark of 90 having won on debut over 7f (race worked out ok) and then chased home the very smart Falls Of Lora at Ascot over a mile next time out. That was a dodgy race though really as they didn't go quickly and Kieren Fallon made a fast, sweeping move on the turn to send the winner clear and the rest were tapped for toe. However, my selection finished 2nd and put some ground between herself and the 3rd placed horse. The winner is rated 107 now and that was only Al-Zarooni's filly's second start on a racecourse. She did run badly on her return but there were excuses available. Firstly it was her first run for the best part of a year. Secondly, the ground was softer than she's raced on before so the sounder surface here should help, and also she helped force a very strong gallop which saw those towards the rear prosper. It was a listed event and the time was good considering the ground conditions. She should get this trip now and I'll take a chance at a big price that she can bounce back. 2.20 - Warlu Way 2.45 - Ellemujie 2.05 - Kunooz 3.10 - Sri Putra

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July (Ignore the bottom...was making a list of my selections. A sneak preview as it were!)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July 2.20 Ascot - 3pts win Warlu Way @ 10/1 (Bet365) John Dunlop can't buy a winner at the moment but his horses are running adequately to make it less of a concern than it sometimes is and I'm hopeful that he can get off the cold list early on today. His runner in this 1m4f handicap will relish the conditions and has slid back down the handicap to the same mark off which he was deprived by a short-head at Newmarket in October. A repeat of that effort would see him go similarly close today, if not better, and I envisage a big performance now he has his quick ground. His record on ground with "firm" in the description, when preceded by a recent run, reads 41112. He produces his best when he can hear his hooves rattle against the turf and that will certainly be the case this afternoon. I can't really have the favourite at the price as he continues to climb the weights so I'll take him on with a horse who hasn't really had his ideal circumstances this season yet. He needed his first run back and although the ground was described as "good" at Windsor last time out when beaten just under 6l, there was definitely more juice in the ground than the description suggests. There wasn't much pace in the race either which saw him take a keen hold and it just wasn't right for him. A decent gallop and the quick ground today will help and although this is a relatively small field, there are a couple who like to go forward so fingers crossed this doesn't turn into a tactical mess and he takes a pull. If he doesn't, he has a big chance in my eyes.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July 2.45 Newmarket - 3pts win Ellemujie @ 8/1 (Bet365) Dean Ivory's charge goes well on the whole on the July Course and he certainly doesn't appear out of this off a mark of 83. Although he has won over 1m4f at Kempton, I think a stiff 1m2f on turf suits him best and the quick ground is definitely in his favour as all three of his turf wins have come on ground described as good to firm. He does have to bounce back from a disappointing effort last time out, but there were excuses as he got shuffled back around 3f out after he was involved in some scrimmaging and given not much came from off the pace in the contest, his race was over. He did, however, make up some decent ground into midfield afterwards before feeling the pinch inside the final furlong - unsurprising having used up energy over 1m4f to try get back into the race. He definitely ran better than the bare form suggests and the cheekpieces return today having been off on this occasion. They seem to help him and he returns to ideal conditions today and there looks plenty of pace in the race which will also suit perfectly. Big chance I think.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July 3.10 York - 2pts win Sri Putra @ 11/1 (Bet365) This looks a pretty open Group 2 event - especially with Planteur withdrawn - with most of the runners not separated by much in terms of official ratings and that gives a chance to Sri Putra in his attempt to land a first Group 2 victory in this country. He's a winner at this level in France, and has won a Group 3 race in the UK but is often seen in Group 1s and he simply isn't up to that. The middle of summer seems his time of year so the timing of this race is ideal and the quick ground is another big plus point as all of his wins have come on a sound surface. It is often difficult to assess the form of his runs in Group 1s when comfortably beaten but he has run some good races as well - including a fine 5th in the Prince of Wales' stakes at Royal Ascot. A repeat of his effort there would see him go extremely close today, although he was more comfortably beaten last time out in the Eclipse at Sandown. The ground had some give in it there though, so that would be one possible reason for it, but he does need to drop down in class. His win over a mile in a listed event at Kempton on his first run this season suggests he's in decent nick this season when he's at the right level and Roger Varian opts for the hood and blinkers today. It's difficult to assess the impact of the blinkers, which he has worn twice before, as both times it was a competitive Group 1 affair. It shouldn't be a negative though so I'm hopeful of a big run as this is the most winnable group race he's competed in for a while.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July

Warlu Way 2.20 Ascot. 1 point win. All about the ground for me and he acts much better than most on this quick ground. Drops to a mark of 90 which can only help and the race does appear to have enough early pace about it. Needs to return to better form, but more than capable today with things more in his favour. 10/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July CHUNKY DIAMOND 3.45 York. 1 point win. Open to more progression than most and could show what's been expected today. Gets in off a decent weight and the trip and ground's fine. Tricky race, but at the prices would be my bet of the day. 25/1 Bet365 BOG

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July

havent got the time to pass all these through computer tonight so had to revert to trends 2.35 york last 4 winners carried 9-4 or more all had had 5 or more runs that season all were drawn 11 or lower apply those trends and you are left with 1 horse .......IMPERIAL DJAY good enough for me 5pts e.w imperial djay 22/1 ladbrokes(party time if this wins)

wasnt to be .......still some decent e.w money for the place ........close

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July 6.10 Salisbury - 4pts win Gallego @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes) Richard Price's horse has won no fewer than five times at Salisbury and he looks to be cherry ripe for another victory in this contest for Mr M Price, one of the better riders in the race. With the ground also on his side, and a handicap mark 6lbs lower than a win last autumn suggests he's going to run an absolute stormer today having shaped well here over 7f last time out. He was slowly away and confidently ridden in the rear (only asked for effort 2f out). He didn't respond rapidly and could only stay on into a 5l 6th. He was also isolated down the centre of the track and that trip isn't ideal for him now at the grand old age of 10. All but one of his career successes have come over further than 7f so this mile helps as well. That run suggested he was coming back into good shape and this race will have been mapped out for him. Everything looks spot on for him and he'll take a lot of beating in my opinion. 8.15 Salisbury - 4pts win Dora's Gift @ 5/1 (Bet365) Hughie Morrison's bottom weight here is extremely interesting and I think a price of 5/1 is generous for an unexposed horse who looks sure to relish from the extra 2f on offer this evening. Despite being by a sprinting sire, she struggled to compete over a mile, finishing to decent effect without threatening, but showed much more since handicapping last time out and further improvement is expected now. That was her first run for six months and it was very likable. She finished 2nd behind a winner who won again next time out and she really finished to good effect. At one point it looked like she would be challenged for the runners-up spot but pulled out plenty late on to close on the winner and stamp her authority on the position. She shaped as if 1m6f would be right up her street on this occasion and her dam was a two-mile winner so that's where her stamina comes from and I anticipate a huge run now with the very capable Harry Bentley taking 3lbs away from her 5lb penalty.

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July 8.30 Lingfield I feel this is a weak event on the AW with plenty of questionable characters on show. Always Eager has been well backed but must come on from latest run from a break and bounce back, ground is a possible excuse neither is this step up in trip look ideal but yard in hot form. Garzoni could be anything especially from this yard having shown little in mile maidens recently making handicap debut stepped up slightly in trip but the money certainly isnt down yet and can only be watched. Top Frock is nothing but inconsistent in what she has shown to date and latest run especially poor. Ostentation has ever been one to fully trust and after a decent spell has reverted to old ways inconsistent often moody displays and looks worth avoiding at present. Opus Maximus is on a dangerous mark but badly out of sorts and this trip may just stretch him. Lisahane Bog has been used to land several gambles in his career, was rather gifted a messy race at Kempton during the winter when heavily backed, has now dropped 2lb below that winning mark and shown little recently and return to AW defenetily a positive but been off the track for 50 days a concern. Ishikawa recent run would suggest handicapper has quickly got hold of him, and Jordaura is 5lb higher having taken advantage of a drop in the weights recently potentially well treated still but consistent not his strong suit. Lytham really caught the eye last time out behind Jordaura was hampered out back when mounting an effort before being able to go through with his effort and was nearest at the finish and is weighted to get much closer to that rival today especially with useful apprentice taking off 5lb off what already looks a very lenient mark at present having last won off a 4lb higher mark. Although does most winning at Kempton has won here and on the back of latest effort here he clearly handles this very different course. Looks massively overpriced at 11/1 2pts e/w Lytham 11/1 hills

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing~ Saturday 28th July

3.10 York - 2pts win Sri Putra @ 11/1 (Bet365) This looks a pretty open Group 2 event - especially with Planteur withdrawn - with most of the runners not separated by much in terms of official ratings and that gives a chance to Sri Putra in his attempt to land a first Group 2 victory in this country. He's a winner at this level in France, and has won a Group 3 race in the UK but is often seen in Group 1s and he simply isn't up to that. The middle of summer seems his time of year so the timing of this race is ideal and the quick ground is another big plus point as all of his wins have come on a sound surface. It is often difficult to assess the form of his runs in Group 1s when comfortably beaten but he has run some good races as well - including a fine 5th in the Prince of Wales' stakes at Royal Ascot. A repeat of his effort there would see him go extremely close today, although he was more comfortably beaten last time out in the Eclipse at Sandown. The ground had some give in it there though, so that would be one possible reason for it, but he does need to drop down in class. His win over a mile in a listed event at Kempton on his first run this season suggests he's in decent nick this season when he's at the right level and Roger Varian opts for the hood and blinkers today. It's difficult to assess the impact of the blinkers, which he has worn twice before, as both times it was a competitive Group 1 affair. It shouldn't be a negative though so I'm hopeful of a big run as this is the most winnable group race he's competed in for a while.

Well done with that one mate. Won well in the end and deserved it. Had Fallon been able to keep his mount straight it would probably have won. Mine (Jet Away) got snatched up but no stewards enquiry at all and maybe not good enough anyway.

CHUNKY DIAMOND 3.45 York. 1 point win. Open to more progression than most and could show what's been expected today. Gets in off a decent weight and the trip and ground's fine. Tricky race, but at the prices would be my bet of the day. 25/1 Bet365 BOG

That one is going to win at huge odds sooner or later. I've followed it since the 2nd to Gusto, never got a run today from that draw. Needs 6f or more for me and I won't give up on it just yet.