BBOTD Friday 27th of July

[Aidymac]

Putting this up early as i have to go to Dublin this evening for an interview tomorrow. *Lucky Diva - Chepstow 8:55* Back down to a very winnable mark now of 51, 1 pound higher than it's last winning mark. That win was over this trip, so trip is no problem. A reproduction of it's run at Wolverhampton a few starts back when 2nd of 13 off a mark of 53, trading at a low of 1.34, would be enough to see it place here i feel. The Bill Turner yard have had a good year, this is his only runner at the track tomorrow, and his last runner at Chepstow won. Has a chance. *0.5 Points e/w @ SP* RESERVE *Amoralist - Newmarket 8:45* Is definately better than it's last run at Kempton. Ran well here on the July course two starts back where 3rd to Dellbuoy. Won easily at Wolverhampton 3 starts back, will prefer the good ground, will get the trip and will enjoy the track. Booking of William Buick a plus too. *1 Point WIN @ SP*

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July 3.30 Ascot - 1pt win Beatrice Aurore @ 11/4 (Bet365) No nonsense from me here - going for a short one - but I'm very confident than John Dunlop's runner will be winning this so long as she's fresh and ready to go after running very well in the Windsor Forest stakes. William Buick is a top jockey booking and conditions suit. Some will say she wants further but I don't think she wants much further myself and she has plenty of speed to cope with this. A stiff mile on decent ground isn't a problem in my eyes and this is a significant drop in class than the Grade 2 event last time out. She's a classy filly and not many of these can touch her on the ratings. One of those has to give her 4lbs and the other still hasn't convinced me that she's good enough to beat my selection. Think she's a good price at 11/4 personally and her group-class turn of foot can be good enough to take this.

[gman1]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July lost glory 2pm southwell 2/1 bet365 course and distance winner, last time out easy winner at uttoxeter where the fourth home has vindicated that run. winner over longer in both jumping codes and lenient chase mark. fancied to follow up

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July 15.30 Ascot: Thistle Bird, 11/2 Bet365, 1pt win Thistle Bird won a listed race lto on his first start of the season on similar ground to what he gets today. He was a bit lucky that day as he hung left in the final half furlong and carried the runner up with him but he picked up well when asked after looking like he was going to be outpaced about three furlongs out. He will be fitter today and should run a big race. Both trainer and jockey are having good seasons and they have a good partnership together.

[Edberg]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July 3.20 Thirsk MEANDMYSHADOW win @ 17/2 bog (Victor Chandler) Good 4yo sprinter who won 5 times in her career, 4 in 2011. Her last success came in October at Leicester in a class 5 handicap over 6f off a mark of 63 (good figures with a TS of 70 and RPR 72). After that win both her new mark of 68 and the softish grounds were against her (tried also over 7f a couple of times in June which is surely too far for her at the moment). The Alan Brown-trained chestnut filly came back to her best last time out (10 days ago) at Beverley over 5f on good to firm ground (she won all her races on good to firm) where she finished 3rd of 16, beaten just a head and a head where the first three were clear of the remainder. She was by far the best of them all even if just third in the end because they went a really fast gallop in the first 3f and she was the only one with the pace still able to fight for the win in the last yards (the only with the early pace to finish in the top 6). The track here at Thirsk is good/good to firm at the moment and with a sunny day forecast the ground should stay at least like this for this race. 5f on an easy track like this should be the optimum for this filly considering her running style and Robert Winston, who rode her last time out and another race one year ago when they finished again 3rd of 13 but over 7f, is retained for the ride. Alan Brown has saddled 1 winner from just 4 runners in the last fortnight and is 1-6 (17%) with 3yo+ runners at this track over the last 5 years. Meandmyshadow was strongly supported at the betting last time out (sent off 9/2 favourite while she had been at 20/1 and 14/1 for her previous 4 starts this year) so connections were already expecting a big run 10 days ago and that underlines her good shape and good handicap at the moment (back to her favourite fast ground). This is a fillies' handicap and the last time she ran in a similar race was for her last success at Leicester in October. She will go up to 63 so she is 3lb ahead of the handicapper and has got a decent draw in stall nr. 9. Richard Fahey-trained Sunny Side Up looks the one to beat if able to build on her last success coming from a 2-month break for her team which is in red hot form this month (Paul Hanagan on board) but there are plenty more with a decent chance on paper and among them I like the chances of Needy Mccredie who is slowly coming back to her best form (4th, 3rd and 2nd on her last three starts) but a quick 5f on such an easy track doesn't seem the optimum for the James Turner-trained 6yo nowadays.

[FedericoBTH]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July CHEPSTOW 7.20 Rocky Reef - 1pt Win 6/1 (>Bet365) BOG C+D winner in a similar contest one month ago but with heavy ground, now has to face a faster surface but he still seems the most reliable of the field. Good 2nd in Sandown (Cl. 3) and decent effort in Newmarket (Cl. 4) in his last two outings this month, now back to class 5 is expected to make a good run. He's already tested under today's 75 mark but jockey Daniel Muscutt will claim 7lbs and over 7f this becomes an interesting plus. Andrew Balding knows well the track (16,19% SR on over a hundred runners) and his stable is in pretty good form lately.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July 1455 ascot 1pt win dansali dual 3/1 bet365 has run 3 times,and improved each time, and now steps up to 6 furlongs,and should be able to see it out,good to firm ground may be an advantage,richard hughes keeps the ride for the hannon horse

[BARNSLEYCHOP]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July 6.30 YORK COCKTAIL CHARLIE @ 14/1 BET365 BOG You only have to go back to June last year to find this one running 2nd over CD in a class 2 off 92!, he's 14lb lower today and running in a class 4. His run last time showed promise and most of his best form has been showed on better ground so todays ground will suit. The trainer has been in great form odf late and although his track record isn't great this trainer/owner combo love a winner at York so don't be surprised to see this go close.

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July 19.30 York: Elas Diamond @ 7/1 Bet365 Promising filly during her Juvenile season, when she broke her maiden tag in the second attempt by 12 lengths and confirmed the promise with a fine 2nd place to Blue Bunting in a listed race at Newmarket. Hasn't been seen on the track for a long time, which is a concern, but she holds some Group 1 entries which suggest she may have shown something good at home. She steps up in trip to 10f for the first time which should be in her favour anyway. This is a solid listed race but she could be easily better than that and her entry for the G1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood in one week suggest she must have trained well and should be already very fit today. So if she is as good as she promised almost two years ago then she'll be too good for her rivals today. It's a gamble with the long break, but 7/1 is a tempting price to find out how good she really is.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July 345 Southwell: Kack Handed (85/40 BetVic) Tremendous race here at Southwell with three of the front four in the betting being right old monkeys and do their best not to win at all costs, the fav Kack Handed is not 100% reliable either but has found a very good opportunity here to land this seller. To be fair Folk Tune has won plenty but has to be delivered on the run in and you just never know if he will go by. Goodwood Starlight's trainer Jim Best is in form and he could be the danger but again he's just as likely to sulk. Topenhall just won't take part in a battle and needs the race to fall apart and with no pace in the race Kack Handed might just lead these at a decent pace and skip clear. At the prices he's worth the risk as i wouldn't back any of the others with monopoly money.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July 2:20 Ascot - Fleeting Smile - Back Ran a belter when 2nd on debut and that is the standout for on offer in this race. Was smashed up that day so was expected to win but has been found a glorious opportunity for compensation in a weaker race here 1pt win @ 1/2 Hills BOG

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July York 8.00 - Andereigo 4/1 Bet365 Looks a horse on the upgrade this year & has C&D form where he pulled away from the chasing pack despite not getting the clearest of runs. Up in class again here but he looks the type improve for the greater challenge.

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July 20:10 Newmarket Expert Fighter - Half brother to Monterosso. Is lightly raced with a decent 2nd LTO. Saeed just sending the one to Newmarket with Frankie onboard. Will appreciate step up in trip. 1pt win 7/4 Boylesports

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July I LOVE ME 3.30 Ascot. 1 point win. Needs to buck up a little on recent form, but goes on this quick ground and does have the ability. The trip's fine and the track shouldn't be a concern, so every chance of a win. 11/2 William Hill BOG

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July Goodwood Starlight 3.45 Southwell. 1 point win. Handles ground and did fairly well on the flat recently. Needs to jump as well as he can, but more than capable of going close in context with today's race. 10/3 VC (bog)

[nickf88]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July Ascot 4:05 - Montaser - 1pt Win (2/1, William Hill) Seemed to want every inch of the step up in trip last time out, staying on powerfully to win by a neck. Up 8 pounds from that effort but I think this horse can offset that with the potential it should have for the big step up in trip today. Franny Norton takes the ride so experience will be key and the ground will suit.

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July 19.40 - Newmarket - Suegioo @ 8/1 (SJ & BlueSq) Good quality maiden this and i feel than Marco Botti's entry Suegioo is in with a good chance. He ran a good race on debut over 10f at todays track Newmarket, when 2nd to the now 93 rated Anomaly. That run was followed that up with another respectable effort, when a running on 3rd over the same C&D, they didn't go much of a gallop that day which probably didn't help and he didn't get the clearest of runs either. Back at Newmarket for his 3rd run today he is upped to 12f which looks as if it should suit and the firm ground should be too his liking too. The very talented Mirco Demuro onboard and should run a good race at a fair price

[nickf88]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July

Ascot 4:05 - Montaser - 1pt Win (2/1, William Hill) Seemed to want every inch of the step up in trip last time out, staying on powerfully to win by a neck. Up 8 pounds from that effort but I think this horse can offset that with the potential it should have for the big step up in trip today. Franny Norton takes the ride so experience will be key and the ground will suit.

Sorry BH completely missed the time, new selection will follow later. Apologies again!

[nickf88]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July Nice to see Montaser go in so well but stupid me for not putting it up on here in time! Only one other horse I really fancy today so - 5:45 Chepstow - Supaheart - 1pt Win (8/1, Coral) The joint favourite Chosen Character is looking for a quick fire treble in this but I feel it's worth taking on whereas My Boy Ginger could well scoot in without being penalised for a 8 length victory last time out but I do still like the look of my selection despite it's last race where it finished 12 lengths off the winner back in 9th. Didn't handle the bends of the track at Windsor that day though and although it's best form has been on the all weather, I'm taking solace from the maiden race this horse contested back in November 2011 where it finished 6 and half lengths back in 6th in what looks now to be a decent maiden. The winner that day was Shirocco Star who is now rated 112 and is trained by the same trainer. Also in front that day was Inchina who has contested Listed races for Roger Charlton, albeit not making a mark in them in fairness. Most of Hughie Morrison's horses lately have been hitting the frame so at the odds is worth a win bet for me today.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July 5.15 Ascot Clear Praise - looks feasibly weighted on his best all weather form and will appreciate the fast ground at Ascot today. This trip is his optimum so a bold bid looks assured. 7/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW

[DC]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July 8:55 Chepstow LUCKY DIVA 28-1 0.5pts e/w Victor C (BOG) Lucky Diva has two wins to her career both on firm ground, winning a class 6 handicap at Bath over 2m1f off a mark of 50. Tonight is a similar trip and the same grade of race, more importantly the same ground and a similar mark of 51, however the claimer takes off 7lbs which can only be good news. While this horse has to overcome a fairly long absence the trainer has had 3 winners and a handful of places in recent weeks so I'm confident this horse can run better than the price given.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July

York 8.00 - Andereigo 4/1 Bet365 Looks a horse on the upgrade this year & has C&D form where he pulled away from the chasing pack despite not getting the clearest of runs. Up in class again here but he looks the type improve for the greater challenge.

Finally a bloody winner... Only my second one all week!

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD Friday 27th of July Warlu Way 2.20 Ascot. 1 point win. All about the ground for me and he acts much better than most on this quick ground. Drops to a mark of 90 which can only help and the race does appear to have enough early pace about it. Needs to return to better form, but more than capable today with things more in his favour. 10/1 Bet365 (bog)