Best Bet Of The Day ~ Wednesday 18th July

[Stevet1859]

4:00 Lingfield: Aurorian 1pt win 33/1 Ladbrokes Going with the first time out for Lawney Hill system again here. That system may not work quite as well on the flat however Aurorian has only raced four times on the all weather winning off 77, although that was back in December 2009. When last seen his final couple of runs on the turf were respectable in Class 2 races at big tracks. Aurorian has presumably had his problems and the price reflects that, yet if Aurorian can reproduce his run at Kempton in April 2011, the 33/1 could look big at five past four.

[Aidymac]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Wednesday 18th July *Mister Musicmaster - Sandown 6:30* This is the only course winner in the field, so it may have an advantage over the field. That win was also over this trip. It's last win was off 76, and after some poor efforts it is now back down to it's last winning mark, another box ticked. It will also love the soft ground, it has won on this ground and is proven in it, a few of the others have question marks about the ground. This is a small field so the price is very attractive. Rod Millman had two runners today at Ffos Las and they both won, so the stable is in great nick. Should have a good chance. *1 Point WIN @ 8/1 Ladbrokes BOG*

[nickf88]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Wednesday 18th July 4:10 Catterick - Sweet Fairnando - 1pt win (7/1, Bet365). If the meeting is on I'll take another chance on this Easterby runner for nearly the same reasons as today. Long break after 3 poor maiden races and put into a poor looking race at a much longer distance. Easterby in tremendous form as of late and hopefully this can add to his list of recent winners, good luck all.

[kroni]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Wednesday 18th July have to agree there Steve, hopefully it great minds think alike! 4:00 Lingfield 10pts e-w Aurorian @ 33/1 Ladbrokes Would have a good chance on best form but wasn't at his best when last seen, has 360 day absence to overcome but has gone well fresh in the past which offers hope. This being first start for new trainer who does well with horses from other yards, 4 career AW runs reads 2413 with the win being at this track, this race does look tough with some unexposed type and some race fit handicappers so overall abit risky but the price reflects that.

[Edberg]

BBOTD - Wed 18 July 2.40 Catterick LLEWELLYN win @ 2/1 bog (Bet365) 4yo gelding who won his last two races, on the 7th of June in a seller at Lingfield over 7f (soft ground) bolting up (the second finished 3.5L behind him) and on the 11th of June in a claimer at Folkestone over 6f (soft ground) once again beating very easily all his opponents (2.25L ahead of the second and was travelling very well but was short of room until 1f out). Claimed by Kieren Burke after his latest success will make his debut for the colours of Anthony Knott and the training of Bill Turner. It has a similar profile to another late bargain of these connections that bought George Benjamin after a win in a claimer and with 7lb apprentice Ryan While on board they bolted up on the first start for the new connections (in handicap and after a second in a following claimer has been sold to another connections). The horse was in sparkling form when last seen under the training of Jim Boyle and it's hard to believe Bill Turner made something wrong with him. The experienced Somerset-based trainer is enjoying his best season ever with 21 winners from 104 runners (20%) and an impressive level stake profit of +53.71 so far this season and has saddled 3 winners from the last 9 runners (33%) during the last fortnight. Over the last 5 seasons Bill Turner has saddled just one 3yo+ horse here at Catterick and that was a winner. As far as concerned the jockey Ryan While has been settling himself as one of the best apprentice jockeys around at the moment and is surely a big value for his 7lb claim. The young jockey has won 8 races (all trained by Bill Turner) from 40 rides this season (20%) for a level stake profit of +26.25 and partnering with Bill Turner-trained horses he is 8-32 (25%). Soft ground is surely a positive for the horse and even if a bit higher in the weight compared to his last easy wins and in a tougher race he should find his way to complete the hat-trick as all his main rivals seem to have plenty of negatives and question marks. Fol Hollow won twice at this level in the last couple of months but ran bad last time out and doesn't like so much 6f. Red Cape won twice over C&D but is opposable under these ground conditions. Zomerlust, who is the main danger imho, ran below par last time out (6f claimer on soft ground at Ripon) after two wins in a row but with another very good 7lb claimer on board even if far from the force of old he was he could go close. Bay Of Fires was a good second over C&D in handicap (off 65 beaten a head) 6 weeks ago but ran very bad last twice and even if this is a drop in class the David O'Meara-trained filly has something to prove at the moment. Middleton Flyer is the feather weight and one of the two 3yo in the race, the Paul Midgley-trained filly has dropped in the rating this year but still found it too difficult to win of her new lowest mark ever (62) finishing second last time out at Warwick over 5f. The ground wouldn't be a problem but she has plenty to prove first time out against older horses. As far as concerned the other half of the runners are either on very difficult terms or totally out of form. This seems a very good chance for Llewellyn and it seems to me a strong favourite.

[Edberg]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Wednesday 18th July Sorry didn't see this thread and I double checked :( 2.40 Catterick LLEWELLYN win @ 2/1 bog (Bet365) 4yo gelding who won his last two races, on the 7th of June in a seller at Lingfield over 7f (soft ground) bolting up (the second finished 3.5L behind him) and on the 11th of June in a claimer at Folkestone over 6f (soft ground) once again beating very easily all his opponents (2.25L ahead of the second and was travelling very well but was short of room until 1f out). Claimed by Kieren Burke after his latest success will make his debut for the colours of Anthony Knott and the training of Bill Turner. It has a similar profile to another late bargain of these connections that bought George Benjamin after a win in a claimer and with 7lb apprentice Ryan While on board they bolted up on the first start for the new connections (in handicap and after a second in a following claimer has been sold to another connections). The horse was in sparkling form when last seen under the training of Jim Boyle and it's hard to believe Bill Turner made something wrong with him. The experienced Somerset-based trainer is enjoying his best season ever with 21 winners from 104 runners (20%) and an impressive level stake profit of +53.71 so far this season and has saddled 3 winners from the last 9 runners (33%) during the last fortnight. Over the last 5 seasons Bill Turner has saddled just one 3yo+ horse here at Catterick and that was a winner. As far as concerned the jockey Ryan While has been settling himself as one of the best apprentice jockeys around at the moment and is surely a big value for his 7lb claim. The young jockey has won 8 races (all trained by Bill Turner) from 40 rides this season (20%) for a level stake profit of +26.25 and partnering with Bill Turner-trained horses he is 8-32 (25%). Soft ground is surely a positive for the horse and even if a bit higher in the weight compared to his last easy wins and in a tougher race he should find his way to complete the hat-trick as all his main rivals seem to have plenty of negatives and question marks. Fol Hollow won twice at this level in the last couple of months but ran bad last time out and doesn't like so much 6f. Red Cape won twice over C&D but is opposable under these ground conditions. Zomerlust, who is the main danger imho, ran below par last time out (6f claimer on soft ground at Ripon) after two wins in a row but with another very good 7lb claimer on board even if far from the force of old he was he could go close. Bay Of Fires was a good second over C&D in handicap (off 65 beaten a head) 6 weeks ago but ran very bad last twice and even if this is a drop in class the David O'Meara-trained filly has something to prove at the moment. Middleton Flyer is the feather weight and one of the two 3yo in the race, the Paul Midgley-trained filly has dropped in the rating this year but still found it too difficult to win of her new lowest mark ever (62) finishing second last time out at Warwick over 5f. The ground wouldn't be a problem but she has plenty to prove first time out against older horses. As far as concerned the other half of the runners are either on very difficult terms or totally out of form. This seems a very good chance for Llewellyn and it seems to me a strong favourite.

[FedericoBTH]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Wednesday 18th July LINGFIELD 5.30 Gallantry - 0.5pts E/W 33/1 (Hills) BOG In a not very interesting day to me (as a punter) I found something which looks like a diamond in the rough. Last race of the day in Lingfield offers a Class 6 handicap with a very weak field, with Lord of the Storm and the uprising Mitch Rapp obviously catching all the interest there. At the bottom of the table stands Gallantry with a price simply too high to pass on. This 10yo boy was there over 10f just a month ago in a very strong Class 5 race, finishing 10th but with less than 9 lenghts from the 1st and his lto over 7f (again a Class 5 race) in Kempton was pretty decent. Today he is offered at 33/1 with 1lb less than last runs, a drop in Class and, as I said, a very weak field (I think there are just 5/6 horses out of 14 in good form and at least 3/4 of them are just solid contenders). He loves the course and it could be a plus and Tom Mc Laughlin leads him 11 times, winning 2. I think he has at least 40%/50% chances to run for the money and at this price it worth a shot.

[gman1]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Wednesday 18th July magic spear 2045 killarney 11/8 PP the pick on form and experience. the pick on booking and stable. didnt relish testing ground but should open account at third time of asking on better ground.

[BillyHills]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Wednesday 18th July 250 Uttoxeter: Saute (7/4 Hills/PP) Looks a match on paper and wouldn't want to be backing Enroller at any price so an easy choice here for me. Saute has been pulled out of a race because of the soft ground lately so wouldnt want anymore rain but if it does poor down he will be withdrawn anyway. Is a few pounds ahead of his main rival on ratings and is the most reliable of the pair. Won three races last season and all stronger than this contest and is fit and raring to go after a disappointing run over fences last time. Enroller has looked a good thing on a few occasions but doesn't go through with it these days and did win a race up the Towcester hill when the race fell apart.

[corky]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Wednesday 18th July 1410 catterick 1 pt win lady moonlight 7/4 betvic now a 3 horse race, and at the price the selection is the one for me,won on its only start at thirsk last month on good to soft ground,up another furlong and soft ground,depends how it handles the ground/distance,but the runner up has since won and graham lee keeps the ride

[robertob]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Wednesday 18th July 19.30 Sandown: Viscount Vert @ 6/1 Boylesports Massively improved this year, won two in a row in recent weeks and looked to have a big say about the outcome in his last race at Windsor too but was a clear run denied, saddle slipped in closing stages and jockey fell off the horse while Viscount Vert looked still in the race with a chance. He's now up 6lb compared to his last win but could be still well handicapped. He is still lightly raced and open to improvement, also proven class on soft ground.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Wednesday 18th July 2:10 Catterick - Silent Footsteps - Back This looks a decent race for the track but Silent Footsteps stands out. Won on his debut lto in soft ground at newcastle and that's a definite plus with the underfoot conditions here. He beat Red Joker then and that one has won since but Silent Footsteps should confirm that form again here. Lady Moonlight looks a danger but the hunch is that was a weaker race than the one Silent Footsteps won and I take him to win again here 1pt win @ 10/11 Hills BOG

[jayalexander]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Wednesday 18th July

2:00 LINGFIELD - GOLD EDITION Ryan Moore is at Lingfield for just the one ride and it's at the start of the card, and then he goes off to Sandown for the evening meeting. I find that quite significant as he has a fantastic strike rate at the track and has placed 62% of his 89 rides there in the past two years. He rides for Jeremy Noseda, who himself has a track strike rate that is only bettered by Bin Suroor in this race, although Noseda is showing a better ability with 3yo's. Skybet 6/1 - win

[Falbrav]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Wednesday 18th July SEAN AIRGEAD 3.20 Uttoxeter. 1 point win. Consistent horse and did a fair enough job on chase debut last time. A mark of 112 is ok in context with this race, so with being open to finding a little improvement and the trip fine,he should go very well. 9/2 Betfred BOG

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Wednesday 18th July Victor Hewgo 3.50 Uttoxeter. 1 point win. Upped in trip, which should suit and should bring improvement, and would be lightly raced in context. The ground's not a concern and the handicapper gives chances off a decent enough looking mark of 103. Solid looking chance. 11/4 Paddy Power (bog)

[timmy121]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Wednesday 18th July 6.30 sandown - PICTURE DEALER Lto was held up behind, not much room over 2f out and again over 1f out, it then travelled strongly and was just beaten by a nose, think it would have won that race for sure if got a smoother running, has placed on last three starts and and imo should go well tonight. 1pt WIN @ 15/8 StanJames

[smith17]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Wednesday 18th July 19.10 Killarney: Go All The Way, 2/1 William Hill, 1pt win Go All The Way has been competing at the highest level so far in his career. He was fourth in the Cheltenham Bumper in 2011 nearly a year after pushing the top class Bishopsfurze close in his first start. After winning his maiden over hurdles in March this year, he was thrown into the grade two John Smith's Mersey Novices' Hurdle at Aintree but was outclassed, finishing a 39 length sixth behind Simonsig. This is his first start over fences and, with a very good jockey on board and in company which he should find much more comfortable, he has a great chance. Jockey Davy Russell has only one ride this evening at Killarney. He has had three rides so far at Killarney's festival and has won all three, including yesterday's winner for the same owners.

[DC]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Wednesday 18th July 7.30 Sandown SIR MIKE 1pt win 4-1 b365 (BOG) Tipped this one up earlier in the month when running at Windsor and ran a credible race on soft ground finishing 2nd over tonight's trip. Doesn't go up any in the weights for that performance and therefore entitled to be involved again tonight, plus at 3 yrs old has the scope to improve for that run. Of the opposition I think Viscount Vert will go well (was very unlucky last time out) but is still 6lbs higher than when last winning. The same is true for Hilali who is up 10lbs for his last (shock) win. I also think Star Surprise is carrying too much weight tonight although this horse has won twice at Sandown and would be my main danger. I think Shavansky is getting on a bit now but is quite well weighted and I've put a line through the other three for going and trip issues.

[BillyHills]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Wednesday 18th July Later runners;

magic spear 2045 killarney 11/8 PP the pick on form and experience. the pick on booking and stable. didnt relish testing ground but should open account at third time of asking on better ground.

19.30 Sandown: Viscount Vert @ 6/1 Boylesports Massively improved this year, won two in a row in recent weeks and looked to have a big say about the outcome in his last race at Windsor too but was a clear run denied, saddle slipped in closing stages and jockey fell off the horse while Viscount Vert looked still in the race with a chance. He's now up 6lb compared to his last win but could be still well handicapped. He is still lightly raced and open to improvement, also proven class on soft ground.

19.10 Killarney: Go All The Way' date= 2/1 William Hill, 1pt win Go All The Way has been competing at the highest level so far in his career. He was fourth in the Cheltenham Bumper in 2011 nearly a year after pushing the top class Bishopsfurze close in his first start. After winning his maiden over hurdles in March this year, he was thrown into the grade two John Smith's Mersey Novices' Hurdle at Aintree but was outclassed, finishing a 39 length sixth behind Simonsig. This is his first start over fences and, with a very good jockey on board and in company which he should find much more comfortable, he has a great chance. Jockey Davy Russell has only one ride this evening at Killarney. He has had three rides so far at Killarney's festival and has won all three, including yesterday's winner for the same owners.

7.30 Sandown SIR MIKE 1pt win 4-1 b365 (BOG) Tipped this one up earlier in the month when running at Windsor and ran a credible race on soft ground finishing 2nd over tonight's trip. Doesn't go up any in the weights for that performance and therefore entitled to be involved again tonight, plus at 3 yrs old has the scope to improve for that run. Of the opposition I think Viscount Vert will go well (was very unlucky last time out) but is still 6lbs higher than when last winning. The same is true for Hilali who is up 10lbs for his last (shock) win. I also think Star Surprise is carrying too much weight tonight although this horse has won twice at Sandown and would be my main danger. I think Shavansky is getting on a bit now but is quite well weighted and I've put a line through the other three for going and trip issues.