Draws for PROFIT...Bugger it!

[Drawsandmore]

Right then, this will probably be my final attempt at posting a profitable draws system on Punters Lounge…If this one doesn’t work, I’ve really got to get a life away from Excel spreadsheets! Background information: This latest incarnation is basically a modified version of the system I used in my “Draws for Profit” Parts 1 and 11 threads, (which ultimately was not actually profitable, but it did come pretty close). This version was built using results from the 2005/06 and 2006/07 seasons. The results were then used to create home and away ratings for every team in the leagues I’ve chosen to cover. (More about which leagues and why I chose them in another post if anyone is interested). Then I used those ratings to rate every league match played in the 2007/08, 2008/09 and 2009/10 seasons...This was the “fun” part! Adjusting pretty much every variable I’d put into the spreadsheet, while always trying to be logical throughout the tinkering. Finally I finished messing about with the variables, and had something that looked fairly promising, (doesn’t it always?!) I was then left with three variations on a theme, with all leagues/divisions rated in exactly the same way. I then back-tested each of them, (with no further changes) on the 2010/2011 season. Somewhat surprisingly, all three variations performed pretty much as they had in the previous seasons. So, for 2011/2012, I went “live” with all of them…Sadly, no money exchanged hands, because all three of them were profitable…It was bloody difficult to keep betting real money on the old system when the performance of all the new ones was so much better! So, what’s different? Not a lot really…Instead of a goal being worth a pre-determined value, (as it was in the old system), it is now a percentage based on each teams current rating. I can’t believe I didn’t do this earlier. Logically, if I’d rated a team at say 20 points, with a goal being worth 4 points, how can a goal also be worth 4 points to a team rated at only 6 points? It seems to me that this goes some way towards explaining the performance of the original system in the lower divisions. Other than that, and a couple of other minor tweaks, it is pretty much the same system as before…Still trying to find a way of creating ratings that weight the very different values of class and current form, and the effect they have on predicting the correct result. The profit and loss figures below are all based on Bet365 draw odds from football-data.co.uk, staking 4 points on every bet. I have assumed that I can improve the odds by a fairly conservative 5% to arrive at the quoted profit figures. During the live testing stage, (and in my “Draws for Profit” thread), I consistently managed to improve the odds by around 7%, so I think the figures below are realistic. I apologise for including the figures/tables below…I’m not after-eventing, and obviously the figures will all be reset to zero once I post “live”. I’m just trying to put some “meat on the bones”, and also to give anyone with an understanding of probability, an opportunity to point out why I might be disappointed at the end of the season…I know past performance is no guarantee of future success, and I am prepared to lose my bank, but if somebody can see a reason that I’m likely to fail, I’d rather know before I lose everything! The tables: I think most of the headings are fairly self-explanatory, with the possible exception of the last column…This is the percentage improvement the system achieved when compared to the actual results. So if in 100 matches, 25 were draws and the system found 30 draws, the % improvement is 20%. Finally, The results! Option 1 [TABLE=width: 823]

[TR] [TD][/TD] [TD]All matches[/TD] [TD]Actual draws[/TD] [TD]Win %[/TD] [TD]Losing run[/TD] [TD]Start Bank[/TD] [TD]Max. Bank[/TD] [TD]Min. Bank[/TD] [TD]Final Bank[/TD] [TD]Profit or loss[/TD] [TD]Bets[/TD] [TD]Wins[/TD] [TD]Win %[/TD] [TD]Yield[/TD] [TD]% Imp.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]07/08[/TD] [TD]4116[/TD] [TD]1090[/TD] [TD]26.48%[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]100.00[/TD] [TD]322.65[/TD] [TD]72.00[/TD] [TD]245.69[/TD] [TD]145.69[/TD] [TD]338[/TD] [TD]110[/TD] [TD=align: right]32.54%[/TD] [TD=align: right]10.78%[/TD] [TD=align: right]22.89%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]08/09[/TD] [TD]4116[/TD] [TD]1112[/TD] [TD]27.02%[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]100.00[/TD] [TD]171.98[/TD] [TD]-1.77[/TD] [TD]131.73[/TD] [TD]31.73[/TD] [TD]387[/TD] [TD]116[/TD] [TD=align: right]29.97%[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.05%[/TD] [TD=align: right]10.95%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]09/10[/TD] [TD]4098[/TD] [TD]1103[/TD] [TD]26.92%[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]100.00[/TD] [TD]265.63[/TD] [TD]109.66[/TD] [TD]247.29[/TD] [TD]147.29[/TD] [TD]359[/TD] [TD]115[/TD] [TD=align: right]32.03%[/TD] [TD=align: right]10.26%[/TD] [TD=align: right]19.01%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]10/11[/TD] [TD]4116[/TD] [TD]1157[/TD] [TD]28.11%[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]100.00[/TD] [TD]223.00[/TD] [TD]86.10[/TD] [TD]215.00[/TD] [TD]115.00[/TD] [TD]379[/TD] [TD]119[/TD] [TD=align: right]31.40%[/TD] [TD=align: right]7.59%[/TD] [TD=align: right]11.70%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]11/12[/TD] [TD]4116[/TD] [TD]1111[/TD] [TD]26.99%[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]100.00[/TD] [TD]294.29[/TD] [TD]86.88[/TD] [TD]290.29[/TD] [TD]190.29[/TD] [TD]401[/TD] [TD]131[/TD] [TD=align: right]32.67%[/TD] [TD=align: right]11.86%[/TD] [TD=align: right]21.03%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Total[/TD] [TD]20562[/TD] [TD]5573[/TD] [TD]27.10%[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]500.00[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]1130.00[/TD] [TD]630.00[/TD] [TD]1864[/TD] [TD]591[/TD] [TD=align: right]31.71%[/TD] [TD=align: right]8.45%[/TD] [TD=align: right]16.98%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] This really is “warts “n” all and shows every bet in every single division, in all of the leagues that I’ve covered. There isn’t really any data-mining going on here. It certainly seems to show promise, but I’ll either need to reduce the stake, or increase the start bank to allow for 2008/09 happening again. Option 2 [TABLE=width: 823] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD]All matches[/TD] [TD]Actual draws[/TD] [TD]Win %[/TD] [TD]Losing run[/TD] [TD]Start Bank[/TD] [TD]Max. Bank[/TD] [TD]Min. Bank[/TD] [TD]Final Bank[/TD] [TD]Profit or loss[/TD] [TD]Bets[/TD] [TD]Wins[/TD] [TD]Win %[/TD] [TD]Yield[/TD] [TD]% Imp.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]07/08[/TD] [TD]3619[/TD] [TD]979[/TD] [TD]27.05%[/TD] [TD]14[/TD] [TD]100.00[/TD] [TD]361.84[/TD] [TD]76.00[/TD] [TD]315.83[/TD] [TD]215.83[/TD] [TD]329[/TD] [TD]114[/TD] [TD=align: right]34.65%[/TD] [TD=align: right]16.40%[/TD] [TD=align: right]28.09%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]08/09[/TD] [TD]3537[/TD] [TD]978[/TD] [TD]27.65%[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]100.00[/TD] [TD]165.47[/TD] [TD]-27.66[/TD] [TD]159.97[/TD] [TD]59.97[/TD] [TD]376[/TD] [TD]115[/TD] [TD=align: right]30.59%[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.99%[/TD] [TD=align: right]10.61%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]09/10[/TD] [TD]3564[/TD] [TD]975[/TD] [TD]27.36%[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]100.00[/TD] [TD]255.08[/TD] [TD]105.91[/TD] [TD]253.98[/TD] [TD]153.98[/TD] [TD]336[/TD] [TD]110[/TD] [TD=align: right]32.74%[/TD] [TD=align: right]11.46%[/TD] [TD=align: right]19.67%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]10/11[/TD] [TD]3550[/TD] [TD]1026[/TD] [TD]28.90%[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]100.00[/TD] [TD]224.10[/TD] [TD]88.40[/TD] [TD]204.92[/TD] [TD]104.92[/TD] [TD]349[/TD] [TD]110[/TD] [TD=align: right]31.52%[/TD] [TD=align: right]7.52%[/TD] [TD=align: right]9.06%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]11/12[/TD] [TD]3605[/TD] [TD]995[/TD] [TD]27.60%[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]100.00[/TD] [TD]358.41[/TD] [TD]102.06[/TD] [TD]346.41[/TD] [TD]246.41[/TD] [TD]370[/TD] [TD]126[/TD] [TD=align: right]34.05%[/TD] [TD=align: right]16.65%[/TD] [TD=align: right]23.38%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Total[/TD] [TD]17875[/TD] [TD]4953[/TD] [TD]27.71%[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]500.00[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]1281.11[/TD] [TD]781.11[/TD] [TD]1760[/TD] [TD]575[/TD] [TD=align: right]32.67%[/TD] [TD=align: right]11.10%[/TD] [TD=align: right]17.91%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] A little bit of “mining” going on here! In every variation I’ve tried, the month of May is fairly hopeless…Too many teams with either everything or nothing to play for, and although May pretty much breaks even over the five years of testing, I think it probably isn’t worth the hassle, (especially as May tipped my previous thread on here into the red!). Additionally, I’ve dropped a couple of the lower divisions where the actual draw percentage over the last five years is consistently below 25%…The odds may be better in these matches, and there have been profitable seasons, but both of the excluded divisions are a bit too unpredictable, and frankly not worth the effort for the minimal profit gained. The profit is up compared to option 1, and the yield also shows a considerable improvement. The downside is that the 2008/09 season was an even bigger “Bank Buster”. Option 3 [TABLE=width: 823] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD]All matches[/TD] [TD]Actual draws[/TD] [TD]Win %[/TD] [TD]Losing run[/TD] [TD]Start Bank[/TD] [TD]Max. Bank[/TD] [TD]Min. Bank[/TD] [TD]Final Bank[/TD] [TD]Profit or loss[/TD] [TD]Bets[/TD] [TD]Wins[/TD] [TD]Win %[/TD] [TD]Yield[/TD] [TD]% Imp.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]07/08[/TD] [TD]1987[/TD] [TD]577[/TD] [TD]29.04%[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]100.00[/TD] [TD]334.17[/TD] [TD]77.21[/TD] [TD]324.16[/TD] [TD]224.16[/TD] [TD]191[/TD] [TD]74[/TD] [TD=align: right]38.74%[/TD] [TD=align: right]29.34%[/TD] [TD=align: right]33.42%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]08/09[/TD] [TD]1905[/TD] [TD]539[/TD] [TD]28.29%[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]100.00[/TD] [TD]242.37[/TD] [TD]45.55[/TD] [TD]227.35[/TD] [TD]127.35[/TD] [TD]210[/TD] [TD]72[/TD] [TD=align: right]34.29%[/TD] [TD=align: right]15.16%[/TD] [TD=align: right]21.18%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]09/10[/TD] [TD]1974[/TD] [TD]555[/TD] [TD]28.12%[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]100.00[/TD] [TD]265.20[/TD] [TD]109.66[/TD] [TD]262.02[/TD] [TD]162.02[/TD] [TD]181[/TD] [TD]66[/TD] [TD=align: right]36.46%[/TD] [TD=align: right]22.38%[/TD] [TD=align: right]29.69%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]10/11[/TD] [TD]1919[/TD] [TD]569[/TD] [TD]29.65%[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]100.00[/TD] [TD]237.33[/TD] [TD]96.40[/TD] [TD]230.15[/TD] [TD]130.15[/TD] [TD]200[/TD] [TD]69[/TD] [TD=align: right]34.50%[/TD] [TD=align: right]16.27%[/TD] [TD=align: right]16.35%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]11/12[/TD] [TD]1973[/TD] [TD]553[/TD] [TD]28.03%[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]100.00[/TD] [TD]290.70[/TD] [TD]105.66[/TD] [TD]275.10[/TD] [TD]175.10[/TD] [TD]233[/TD] [TD]82[/TD] [TD=align: right]35.19%[/TD] [TD=align: right]18.79%[/TD] [TD=align: right]25.56%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Total[/TD] [TD]9758[/TD] [TD]2793[/TD] [TD]28.62%[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]500.00[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]1318.78[/TD] [TD]818.78[/TD] [TD]1015[/TD] [TD]363[/TD] [TD=align: right]35.76%[/TD] [TD=align: right]20.17%[/TD] [TD=align: right]24.95%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] A bit more “mining”…I prefer to call it fine tuning! A further three of the lower divisions excluded, (two of which were actually profitable over the full five seasons, but they achieved the profit very erratically, winning a Hell of a lot in some seasons, and losing a Hell of a lot in others). The profit is not much better than in option two, but it has been achieved far more evenly, and the yield is also much better. My logic could be flawed and I might just be seeing what I want to see…Searching for patterns where none really exist, but there is a certain consistency about the results…Especially in option three. Obviously there are far fewer bets in this one, but I still feel comfortable that an average of 200 bets a year over a five year period should be a large enough sample size to start putting real money down in 2012/13 with a degree of confidence. What’s next? Well I really would like some feedback regarding the probability of any or all of these figures being repeated next season, or the season after etc. I’m intending to post (and back) all of the selections from Option three during the 2012/2013 season, but if someone with a better understanding of statistics and probability than me, (and that’ll be quite a lot of you), can show me why option one or two is better, I’m quite prepared to listen and learn.

[leony]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Looks interesting. I have 1 question: What is the average, winning, odds for the 3 systems?

[Jazzy Jim]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Good luck with this, draws are without doubt my worst performing area in 12X. Will be interested to see what you come up with.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

Looks interesting. I have 1 question: What is the average, winning, odds for the 3 systems?

Hi leony, and thank you for your interest. The average of the actual returned Bet365 odds, on all winning bets (according to football-data.co.uk) was: Option 1.....3.304 Option 2.....3.286 Option 3.....3.247 However, as pointed out in the first post, I have assumed (conservatively I believe!), an improvement of 5% on BET365's odds. Therefore the assumed average odds of all winning bets used in the tables are: Option 1.....3.420 Option 2.....3.400 Option 3.....3.360

[UsManyDead]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

What’s next? Well I really would like some feedback regarding the probability of any or all of these figures being repeated next season, or the season after etc. I’m intending to post (and back) all of the selections from Option three during the 2012/2013 season, but if someone with a better understanding of statistics and probability than me, (and that’ll be quite a lot of you), can show me why option one or two is better, I’m quite prepared to listen and learn.

The improvement made on your system, does look obvious enough, but the "pillar" of your whole system is the cutting criteria. Anyway, averaging almost the same over the course of 5 years, looks like you did it wright. As you know, past can't predict future (or so is the saying), but there are things that tend to happen more often than not. So, probably, there is no one who can say that "these figures will repeat next year also!". IMO the final system is in the best form you can get it: few bets (aprox. 200 a year - I would say more than enough), good consistent yield (avg. over 15% - looks good ;)), and the S/R far superior what you need to achieve profit. Overall giving 5 years of "green". So it does look good. What you need to do is catch every match at least at the odds you are predicting, if not at the best available. As you know trail-paper and betting are two different worlds all together. Looking at your longest bad run of 11, might tell you that you can loose aprox. half your bank on the road (this will surely happen - the bad run), so you gotta stay focus on what you are doing (especially if you are ready to risk all your bank). All or nothing is a good theory, but it's better if you are using it with a good system. Believe me there is no one who can say something about your system than you. So even with this figures (which are more than achievable) you don't have to get in doubts. You can see the up's and down's of your system and know what to expect. It will surely be a rough journey, but you look like you are ready to go. Good luck! I will follow with interest.

[cmoi14]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! bonne chance !!

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Thank you for your interest UsManyDead

As you know' date=' past can't predict future (or so is the saying), but there are things that tend to happen more often than not.[/quote'] I agree entirely...Past performance doesn't predict the future, but if something happens often enough, and all things being equal, I am quite hopeful of a similar set of results.

[Simmo]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

I'd love to double the bank, but my aim for the coming season is a slightly less ambitious yield of 10%

There's no reason why you couldn't double your bank with a 10% yield, but you'd probably need to use a % staking plan rather than your 4 points flat staking. Perhaps you could stake 4% of your bank balance rather than a fixed 4 points.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

There's no reason why you couldn't double your bank with a 10% yield' date=' but you'd probably need to use a % staking plan rather than your 4 points flat staking. Perhaps you could stake 4% of your bank balance rather than a fixed 4 points.[/quote'] Hi Simmo and thank you for your suggestion. I've got a staking plan in mind, but it's a bit more conservative than constantly betting 4% of the bank. No matter how good my system is or isn't, in the long term, eventually it will hit a run of 25 losers :( Whilst I am prepared to lose all of my initial bank, if the system actually is profitable, given enough time, eventually it will reach a point where I'm no longer prepared to lose it all! So at the start, I'll be betting 4% of a 100 point bank...25 losers and bust :( If/when :) the bank doubles, the value of a point also doubles. But I'll decrease the percentage stake to 3%...Meaning the stake has increased by 50%, but the bank will be able to take a run of 33 losers before going bust...Double the bank again = 2.5% stake and 40 losers, and then again, 2% stake and 50 losers. Obviously the probability of getting to that point is somewhat remote, but we're all allowed to dream! lol

[only1woz]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Ever considered using the staking plan that someone on here used a while ago, incorporating the even goals into it too?

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

Ever considered using the staking plan that someone on here used a while ago' date=' incorporating the even goals into it too?[/quote'] Hi only1woz, and thank you for your interest and suggestion. I can't find the thread at the moment, but I do remember seeing it. I've never really considered betting odd or even before, as I've always felt the overround was a bit too high, perhaps due to fewer bookmakers offering odds. Again from memory, I think the odds are typically between 1.80 and 1.90. (but I could be wrong) After checking the results for options 2 and 3 above, the percentage of matches ending with an even number of goals, (or 0 - 0) was: Option 2...55.11% Option 3...57.63% So if my memory of the typical odds is correct, there may be some merit in betting on even goals. As I can't find any historic odds for this type of bet, I will give it a look this season and see how the system performs, but my focus in this thread will be on the draws.

[anaconda69]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Do the six point divisor staking plan you'll be sorted there.

[only1woz]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! I think the thread has been deleted, after some sort of dispute. Basically, he used to back enough to win £150 on even goals, and a seperate amount to win £150 on the draw. (I'm not saying you stake that much, obv) He used them as separate pots, and if he lost, he'd double it to x2 his stake, and if he lost 2 in a row, he'd go to x4, and thats where the bets would stay until he got a winner. From what I can recall, he wanted to make £2000 in a year, but did it in only 6 weeks! Just thought it was an interesting staking plan, that seemed to work well for the draws, and may be of interest to you. Cheers.

[leony]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

I've never really considered betting odd or even before, as I've always felt the overround was a bit too high, perhaps due to fewer bookmakers offering odds. Again from memory, I think the odds are typically between 1.80 and 1.90. (but I could be wrong) After checking the results for options 2 and 3 above, the percentage of matches ending with an even number of goals, (or 0 - 0) was: Option 2...55.11% Option 3...57.63% So if my memory of the typical odds is correct, there may be some merit in betting on even goals. As I can't find any historic odds for this type of bet, I will give it a look this season and see how the system performs, but my focus in this thread will be on the draws.

Bet365 usually has 1,90 for even and 1,95 for odd. Betfair often has a bit better than that but then comes commission :-( If I were you I'd have a bit more trust in your numbers and the system. No need to expect a 25 game losing streak when history says that the longest streak is 11 games (option 3 - if you only bet those games). (I can understand why you don't want to get to carried away but your backtest doesn't lie - if you've done it properly). With regards to which system to chose I think you should go with all 3 of them if you have the funds. I'd do option 1 with half stake (or 1/3) of option 3. Option 2 somewhere in between. With regards to the staking plan I think you're to conservative - although I like your staking % plan. You have a system that has worked for the last 6 years. I'd do the 4 units flat until the bank reaches 125 units then 5 or 6 units stake when the bank reaches 150 units the 7 or 8 units stake and so. You could run a beacktest on the various staking plans and see what fits your temper and your wallet most. If you're not familiar with "the staking machine" try it out - it can help you with staking plans - just Google it. Its easy to find I wish you all the luck in the world with your system. Cannot wait to see it in action.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

Do the six point divisor staking plan you'll be sorted there.

Hi anaconda69, and thank you for your suggestion. I'd never seen that plan before...It's fairly complex, but looks quite good, and is also fairly conservative, (I like conservative). The downside is that it is primarily for bets that don't run simultaneously, (it doesn't happen too often with my system, but occasionally it does)...But I'm sure I can come up with a work around. I won't use it on here this season, but I will get around to back testing it on the last two seasons data, and also "live" in the new season and see how it goes.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

I think the thread has been deleted, after some sort of dispute. Basically, he used to back enough to win £150 on even goals, and a seperate amount to win £150 on the draw. (I'm not saying you stake that much, obv) He used them as separate pots, and if he lost, he'd double it to x2 his stake, and if he lost 2 in a row, he'd go to x4, and thats where the bets would stay until he got a winner. From what I can recall, he wanted to make £2000 in a year, but did it in only 6 weeks! Just thought it was an interesting staking plan, that seemed to work well for the draws, and may be of interest to you. Cheers.

I certainly wouldn't be betting that rich! :eek Again, as with the previous answer, the problem would be when there are simultaneous matches. As a result of your previous post, I'd already decided to track the odds on betting evens next season and see how it goes. At the end of the season it'll be pretty easy to try out the staking plan and see if it is better than just backing level stakes.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

Bet365 usually has 1,90 for even and 1,95 for odd. Betfair often has a bit better than that but then comes commission :-(

If 1.90 is widely available, it would certainly be worth looking at, and I'm going to record the odds this season to see how it pans out.

If I were you I'd have a bit more trust in your numbers and the system. No need to expect a 25 game losing streak when history says that the longest streak is 11 games (option 3 - if you only bet those games). (I can understand why you don't want to get to carried away but your backtest doesn't lie - if you've done it properly).

I promise that I have done the back test properly, (although only the last two seasons were after I'd "fixed" all the variables, and only the 2011/2012 season was live...Not posted on here though, so I'm the only one that knows it's real). I don't expect a losing run of 25 any time soon, (but it will happen eventually). However, if we take option 3 for example, there was a sequence of 20 bets and only 2 winners, and another of 14 bets and only 1 winner. By nature I am very conservative, so if it all goes "tits up" because the system isn't picking enough winners (anything less than 30%ish winners) I'll be sad, If it fails just because I've staked too aggressively, I'll be f*****g fuming!

With regards to which system to chose I think you should go with all 3 of them if you have the funds. I'd do option 1 with half stake (or 1/3) of option 3. Option 2 somewhere in between. With regards to the staking plan I think you're to conservative - although I like your staking % plan. You have a system that has worked for the last 6 years. I'd do the 4 units flat until the bank reaches 125 units then 5 or 6 units stake when the bank reaches 150 units the 7 or 8 units stake and so. You could run a beacktest on the various staking plans and see what fits your temper and your wallet most. If you're not familiar with "the staking machine" try it out - it can help you with staking plans - just Google it. Its easy to find

I'll check your staking suggestion and let you know...I suspect it will be more profitable than flat staking, but I'll stick to what I know this season at least.

I wish you all the luck in the world with your system. Cannot wait to see it in action.

Thank you for your good wishes, I just hope it doesn't fall flat on its face as soon as it goes live.

[leony]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

I certainly wouldn't be betting that rich! :eek Again, as with the previous answer, the problem would be when there are simultaneous matches.

When I started betting I used "the retirement staking plan" which also is a divisor plan. If I had games playing at the same time I'd just play them all and assume they all were losers. Trying to pick a winning game as the last in the sequence. When all the bets are settled you just add up your winners and losers and the result is added or subtracted from your target. This approach depends on the number of simultaneous matches if it is a couple or 4 it could be alright. If it is 15 and the last bet is a loser then it could wipe your bank. That was the "workaround" I used it may not be everybody's cup of tea.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Hi again leony, After much burning of the midnight oil, I think I've got a staking plan that works with the probable winning and losing streaks in my system, (as long as it stays above 30% winners). I don't think there is anything particularly new here, but see what you think. It's a percentage based system, so in theory at least, it can never go bust, although there would come a point when betting with it becomes be pretty pointless! Start bank of 100 points. All bets on the same day will be staked according to the bank at the start of the day. The first bet, (or bets if there is more than 1 bet on the first day), the stake will is 5% of the start bank per bet. After the first day, the maximum stake per bet is 5% of the bank, however, this figure is always rounded DOWN...So if the bank was 96 points at the start of the day, all bets would be 4 points: (96 x 5% = 4.8 points rounded down). Two reasons for always rounding down, my conservative nature, and I don't want to be betting strange amounts...4.8 points is a pretty silly stake, and I don't want the bookmakers to think I'm arbing either! Based on back testing, the most bets in one day was eight, and the longest losing run was eleven. This staking plan would be able to cope with ten losing bets in one day, and another ten losing bets on the next day...Obviously the bank would be pretty decimated (about 25% of what it was before the run started), but probably still just about worth betting with. I'm fairly certain that at some point, even if I maintain a strike rate of around 35%, that run will happen...But I have a cunning plan! I shall start using a smaller percentage once I've got a decent bank to play with. The yield goes down quite a bit when compared to level stakes betting, but over five years the bank improves dramatically...Although I suspect it might be a bit difficult staking 6330 points on the draw!! lol The reckless part of me thinks I should just say "sod it" and use half of my intended bank, stake 10% instead of 5% for the first season, cross my fingers and see where it takes me! I'll still have the other half of the bank if/when I crash and burn :(

[leony]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Hi again. If that is what you've decided and - more importantly - if that is what you are comfortable with then I'd say go for it. Since you ask me what I think I'm going to be honest with you. Personally I think the percentage plan isn't that effective. Especially with a low strike rate. When you win, you win big but when you lose, you lose big. It ends up almost even at the end. Resulting in a profit that isn't much bigger compared to flat stakes. Unless you incorporate a ratchet (bet 4% flat when bank reaches xxx units then bet 6% flat for example). Haven't got anything to back it up with but that was my findings a long time ago when I tried different staking plans. Its taken some time to answer because I wanted to run a 100 game system comparing the 2 but I simply haven't got time to do it. But my opinion doesn't matter - its your wallet and your system.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Hi again leony, I actually agree with you regarding percentage staking. So, in this thread I'm just going to stick to flat betting this season. All bets will be 4 points, from a starting bank of 100 points. In the real world, I will also be betting all of the selections with my "hard earned", using the same 4 point stake/100 point bank. Additionally though, I'm also going have a little dabble with the percentage plan, (but using a much smaller bank), just to see what happens. I'll let you know how they compare after 100 bets. Back with the first bet of the season shortly.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! And so to the first bet of the season :hope 27/07/12 F2 Angers v Sedan (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.18

[Xtc12]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! good Luck with the plan.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

Bet 1 27/07/12 F2 Angers v Sedan (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.18 ...1 - 0 Lost

Just 1 bet this week and it's a loser! Oh well, back next week...and it looks like there will be 3 bets.

[leony]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! :hope for next week selections. I'll follow your comparison of the % and flat stake banks with interest. Good luck next week.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Three bets this week, two on Friday: 03/08/12 F2 Arles v Lens (X) 4 points Bet770 @ 3.15 03/08/12 F2 Le Mans v Dijon (X) 4 points Stan James @ 3.12 And one for Saturday: 04/08/12 SC0 St Mirren v Inverness C (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.38

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon!

Bet 2 03/08/12 F2 Arles v Lens (X) 4 points Bet770 @ 3.15 ...0 - 0 Won Bet 3 03/08/12 F2 Le Mans v Dijon (X) 4 points Stan James @ 3.12 ...1 - 2 Lost Bet 4 04/08/12 SC0 St Mirren v Inverness C (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.38 ...2 - 2 Won

It's a bit early to be putting up profit/loss and yield figures, but we're in the black for now at least :clap It looks like there will be 4 bets next week.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! Having to post really early this week as my weekend is likely to be unpredictably busy! There are four bets in total...One for Friday: 10/08/12 F2 Niort v Caen (X) 4 points Bet365 @ 3.20 One for Saturday: 11/08/12 SC0 Inverness C v Kilmarnock (X) 4 points Pinnacle @ 3.40 And two for Sunday: 12/08/12 F1 Reims v Marseilles C (X) 4 points Panbet @ 3.30 12/08/12 SC0 Hibernian v Hearts (X) 4 points Paddypower @ 3.40

[leony]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! May the draws be with you :hope

[TZOGAS]

Re: Draws for profit...The last chance saloon! i am following you selections.....